Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Austro-Hungarian parable

1235789

Comments

  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    SKy now saying its England and Wales fans caught up with it - have seen a few union jack T shirted blokes
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    Russia running riot in Lille.

    They only get done for stuff in the stadia, right?

    They set off flares in the stadium apparently
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,331
    Jobabob said:

    marke09 said:

    Looks like it nmay be kicking off in France again - SKY News


    Russia are surely out. They have set off flares in the stadium, and have attacked Slovakia.
    Will FIFA have the balls to pull the WC?
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    SKY reporting its England v Wales fans
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.

    It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on

    As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.

    Wow. Coming from you.

    He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020

    Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.

    Boris will be too lazy to actually change anything and Gove isn't all bad. His approach to education was correct, though his uncompromising approach to critics was quite grating.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tpfkar said:

    Fenster said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    About time for a Hillary thread? The big story in the States is how her poll rating is soaring since she won the nomination.

    Seems like Trump is doing all he can to boost her. Paul Ryan must be wishing he had held back on that endorsement of him.

    IMHO, if Leave wins, so will Trump, because it will show that people have stopped listening to establishment figures.
    LauraK on the DP said earlier that from her experience on the campaign trail - the electorate seemed to developing a *post-fact* attitude to politicians. They simply didn't believe many of them at all, and were going on their gut feel/what they read overall.
    Case in point - Osborne's Post Brexit Emergency Budget.

    We all know it is a fib, because in the event of Brexit he won't be able to get a budget through parliament. He doesn't have the numbers, so wouldn't risk it. It'd be suicide.

    But ah! He thinks people are stupid enough to believe it. Indeed, we've all been going round thinking the ranked masses of the great unwashed (me included) will believe it. Because. We. Are. Fucking. Ignorant. And. Stupid.

    But as the emergence of Corbyn, Trump, UKIP (to a degree), Boaty McBoatFace, the Scots Nats and now the (unthinkable six months ago) possibility of Brexit shows, people do listen. They do smell the bullshit. And they vote in protest.

    We clearly aren't as stupid as we think, or they think.
    Although I haven't gone as far as switching to Leave, I have to agree with most of this - this nonsense about a post-Brexit budget he'd have no authority to dole out sums up the ridiculous remain campaign, and why I haven't wanted to be associated at all (I've pretty much sat it out.) For goodness sake, we've had 70 years of peace in Europe, living standards unimaginable from a generation ago, interconnectivity of industry, research and academia like never before. And all Remain could come up with was Project Fear, name-call Boris, Farage and Gove, and wilt as soon as the other side complained about immigration.

    I confess, quietly, though - it will be fascinating to see what happens if we go over the cliff next Thursday. Every time a nation has come close in my political lifetime, it's always stepped back from the brink at the 11th hour - this would be a whole new world and who knows who'd be inspired / horrified by the results.
    I'm waiting to see when Remain starts executing the hostages.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,093
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Russia running riot in Lille.

    They'll be out - what does it mean for the results though as England have drew and Slovakia beaten them. Wales yet to play them.
    No idea. A mate reckons they will average the points gained out between all sides. I can't see how they will do it.
    Sounds like England could get kicked out too.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    I don't think there are many who are voting remaining out of defiance of the Leave arguments, maybe against the people in the leave camp though.

    ANECDOTE ALERT

    I was on our International conf call earlier, US, UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Chile, Canada and the topic came up

    The Irish are really worried what Brexit will do to their economy

    The UK comment (not from me) is the people advocating Leave are not people they could ever vote with

    At that point we switched to the football instead...

    The US folks are just bemused by the whole thing
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,835
    edited June 2016
    So what after all might be the lessons to learn? I see them as sixfold.
    First, unloved supranational institutions may have substantial, if unappreciated, practical value.
    Secondly, as a result they may have more internal strength than their detractors might appreciate.
    Thirdly, they may be most vulnerable to external shocks caused by a power vacuum on their borders – we have already seen the EU struggle with the collapse of the former Yugoslavia and if I were a Eurocrat I would be more concerned in the long term about the potential impact of Russian febrility than about Brexit.
    Fourthly, national identity can prove inadequate to maintain a stable demos.
    Fifthly, the unappreciated practical value of unloved supranational institutions might well eventually become appreciated after some hard lessons have been learned.
    And sixthly, the practical value offered may well eventually be sought through an entirely different route.


    1) Yes, possibly. If so, they should be able to do a better job demonstrating their practical value.
    2) While I think the EU is in some ways critically weak, I could accept that - it has done in some ways a remarkable job creating fudges and stumbling along, even if that may be a bad thing in the long term.
    3) External shocks don't have as much impact if the internals are strong
    4) It can, but the current european demos is definitely not stable so what does it matter.
    5) Yes, in that scenario I imagine they would.
    6) Yes, probably. The problem is that people aren't seeing the value right now. If it is definitely there, it will be sought somehow at some point.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anecdote alert. A colleague of mine who I had expected to be 100% remain (Italian heritage, Oxford graduate, mid 20s professional) has just told me he's with the kind of punishment beatings that organised criminals would to a lowly shop keeper.

    Quite so. No matter what our heritage, we are a stoic people. We do not give into threats or bullies.

    One of the things that genuinely worried me about this campaign was a fear that, at the heart of our national character, that feature had quietly died.

    I'm impressed (and proud) that after months of the great and the good promising us the terrors of the earth if we do not do as they say, so many people are defiantly making a stand against that, and for taking control themselves.

    Given our stoicism and refusal to back down in the face of threats, it does make you wonder why Leave has spent so much time warning us all that if we do not vote to quit the EU we will imminently be overrun by Turks and other swarthy undesirables. Maybe a few Remainers are making a stand against that kind of complete nonsense, who knows? Or perhaps they are just sick and tired of being told by immensely privileged, wealthy people that if we do not do as they say we are cowards and afraid to stand up to bullies.

    The country is split down the middle and no one side has the monopoly on pluckiness, patriotism or anything else.

    I don't think there are many who are voting remaining out of defiance of the Leave arguments, maybe against the people in the leave camp though.

    I totally reject the Leave arguments about Turks and Turkey, and I find it very insulting to be told by people who have taken far fewer risks than I have in my life that I am somehow being kow-towed and weak because I do not agree with them. But I made my mind up before the insults started to fly so I guess that does not count.

    That said, I imagine there will be many on the Leave side who are sick of being called racists and xenophobes and what have you. There are a number of people on this board who have held their views consistently and cogently for a long time. I don't agree with them, but I respect them and admire their passion. Others, less so ;-)

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,531

    I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.

    It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on

    As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.

    Wow. Coming from you.

    He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020

    Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.

    Not if I can help it.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,851
    Scott_P said:



    At that point we switched to the football instead...

    The US folks are just bemused by the whole thing

    Bemused that proper FOOTball is actually played with the FEET? :lol:
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070

    John_M said:

    Where are all the FTSE and currency updates today? I've had to go and look them up elsewhere.

    I though pb was diversifying into a mixed politics/economy site. Disappointed.

    Something to do with this:

    British Pound Recovers from Sun Meltdown on Strong Wage Growth Data, Seen Up vs Euro and Dollar. The GBP is in recovery mode 24 hours after the currency was hit by fresh polling data and news that the Sun newspaper has decided to support Brexit.

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/4988-pound-exchange-rates-today

    How is it possible that there has been strong wages growth when immigrants are keeping salaries low and the Turks are just about to invade?

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    marke09 said:

    now therey are fighting in Lille

    And bangers and tear gas. I can't think of much more irresponsible behaviour than endlessly distracting the police like this.

    The recent bomb threats et al were real. In France. ISIS just murdered two police and stuck the killing on Facebook.
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016

    The subsequent conquest by the Soviets after WW2 was an unavoidable consequence of this and the Yugoslavian War came about exactly because separate countries with very different ethnic and religious backgrounds were forced together.

    They weren't "forced". Upon the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian empire came the setting up in 1918 of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, renamed "Yugoslavia" in 1929, and surely you aren't a fan of either the Croat Ustashi fascists or the Serb Chetnik fascists of the Yugoslav war period which is known in some countries as WW2. The former were guilty of massacres on a horrendous scale and today's state of Croatia still waves the Ustashi flag and counts the "independent" Ustashi regime of the early 1940s as its previous incarnation. I am no Titoist, but it is a fact that many of the groups of Serbs and Croats and other nationalities - and people who didn't care much of a toss about what kind of South Slav they were - who joined the Partisans were precisely those who wanted to stop the inter-ethnic slaughter - to stop suffering it and to stop it happening at the hands of those with whom they supposedly shared a Serb ethnicity, or a Croat one, as the case may be. If the country had stayed united in the 1990s, and essentially fascist groups hadn't been stirred up and armed and supported from the outside, including from Hungary and Germany, perhaps the warfare which caused so many people to become refugees ("ethnically cleansed") could have been avoided. In short, many areas were ethnically very mixed. Y'know, like London today.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    John_M said:

    Where are all the FTSE and currency updates today? I've had to go and look them up elsewhere.

    I though pb was diversifying into a mixed politics/economy site. Disappointed.

    Something to do with this:

    British Pound Recovers from Sun Meltdown on Strong Wage Growth Data, Seen Up vs Euro and Dollar. The GBP is in recovery mode 24 hours after the currency was hit by fresh polling data and news that the Sun newspaper has decided to support Brexit.

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/4988-pound-exchange-rates-today

    How is it possible that there has been strong wages growth when immigrants are keeping salaries low and the Turks are just about to invade?

    Only strong in relative terms. 2.3% wage growth is weak by pre-2005 standards.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,851
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Oh my

    Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies

    Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son’s claims

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    There's something a bit fishy in all this.
    More cod journalism
    Gove's dad needs to learn his plaice.
    The halibut of a joke
    He's a sole practitioner
    A ray of hope?
  • Options
    marke09 said:

    SKy now saying its England and Wales fans caught up with it - have seen a few union jack T shirted blokes

    Does that make them English or Welsh?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,348
    edited June 2016
    Why has Remain shortened so much today?

    1.66 late last night. 1.56 now.

    No new polls.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    MP_SE said:

    nunu said:
    It takes about 7 years to train as an actuary. They most probably start on 25-30k depending on who you work for.
    Speaking of which, what happened to my fellow Irish left wing actuary Neil?
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,946
    edited June 2016
    tpfkar said:

    Fenster said:


    Case in point - Osborne's Post Brexit Emergency Budget.

    We all know it is a fib, because in the event of Brexit he won't be able to get a budget through parliament. He doesn't have the numbers, so wouldn't risk it. It'd be suicide.

    But ah! He thinks people are stupid enough to believe it. Indeed, we've all been going round thinking the ranked masses of the great unwashed (me included) will believe it. Because. We. Are. Fucking. Ignorant. And. Stupid.

    But as the emergence of Corbyn, Trump, UKIP (to a degree), Boaty McBoatFace, the Scots Nats and now the (unthinkable six months ago) possibility of Brexit shows, people do listen. They do smell the bullshit. And they vote in protest.

    We clearly aren't as stupid as we think, or they think.

    Although I haven't gone as far as switching to Leave, I have to agree with most of this - this nonsense about a post-Brexit budget he'd have no authority to dole out sums up the ridiculous remain campaign, and why I haven't wanted to be associated at all (I've pretty much sat it out.) For goodness sake, we've had 70 years of peace in Europe, living standards unimaginable from a generation ago, interconnectivity of industry, research and academia like never before. And all Remain could come up with was Project Fear, name-call Boris, Farage and Gove, and wilt as soon as the other side complained about immigration.

    I confess, quietly, though - it will be fascinating to see what happens if we go over the cliff next Thursday. Every time a nation has come close in my political lifetime, it's always stepped back from the brink at the 11th hour - this would be a whole new world and who knows who'd be inspired / horrified by the results.
    I'd agree with that, though I think you're being unduly harsh on the Remain campaign. Yes, there's been some quite contemptible name-calling, but I don't see anything wrong with pointing out what we are giving up by leaving the EU. Leave's innumerate jingoistic populism has been far worse.

    I will obviously be breathing a sigh of relief for the future of my children and breaking out the champaign if Remain wins, but I'd be kidding myself if I didn't admit that there is a morbid little devil in me that sneakily looks forward to witnessing the economic devastation and political chaos wrought by a Leave victory. So long as I and my loved ones remain relatively unscathed, that is.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Oh my

    Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies

    Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son’s claims

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    There's something a bit fishy in all this.
    More cod journalism
    Gove's dad needs to learn his plaice.
    The halibut of a joke
    He's a sole practitioner
    Gove's father is voting leave and then shoots down his own sons quote, so it's a case of don't interrupt your anemone when he's making a mistake.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,835

    I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.

    It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on

    As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.

    Wow. Coming from you.

    He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020

    Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.

    It's not really that good to see the back of them then is it? That's like saying its good I'ev gotten that nasty spider out of my house, the only downside is it was replaced by a million of them.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Oh my

    Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies

    Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son’s claims

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    There's something a bit fishy in all this.
    More cod journalism
    Gove's dad needs to learn his plaice.
    The halibut of a joke
    He's a sole practitioner
    You have bream quiet up to now
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anecdote alert. A colleague of mine who I had expected to be 100% remain (Italian heritage, Oxford graduate, mid 20s professional) has just told me he's with the kind of punishment beatings that organised criminals would to a lowly shop keeper.

    Quite so. No matter what our heritage, we are a stoic people. We do not give into threats or bullies.

    One of the things that genuinely worried me about this campaign was a fear that, at the heart of our national character, that feature had quietly died.

    I'm impressed (and proud) that after months of the great and the good promising us the terrors of the earth if we do not do as they say, so many people are defiantly making a stand against that, and for taking control themselves.

    Given our stoicism and refusal to back down in the face of threats, it does make you wonder why Leave has spent so much time warning us all that if we do not vote to quit the EU we will imminently be overrun by Turks and other swarthy undesirables. Maybe a few Remainers are making a stand against that kind of complete nonsense, who knows? Or perhaps they are just sick and tired of being told by immensely privileged, wealthy people that if we do not do as they say we are cowards and afraid to stand up to bullies.

    The country is split down the middle and no one side has the monopoly on pluckiness, patriotism or anything else.

    I don't think there are many who are voting remaining out of defiance of the Leave arguments, maybe against the people in the leave camp though.

    I totally reject the Leave arguments about Turks and Turkey, and I find it very insulting to be told by people who have taken far fewer risks than I have in my life that I am somehow being kow-towed and weak because I do not agree with them. But I made my mind up before the insults started to fly so I guess that does not count.

    That said, I imagine there will be many on the Leave side who are sick of being called racists and xenophobes and what have you. There are a number of people on this board who have held their views consistently and cogently for a long time. I don't agree with them, but I respect them and admire their passion. Others, less so ;-)

    Well said. The tone of pb has coarsened markedly in the last month or so, and that's disappointing. Can't we just agree that Remainers aren't lickspittle quislings, and that Brexiters aren't longing-for-lost-empire racists? It would make things so much more pleasant.

    If we're going to knock seven bells out of anyone it should be the political classes who've allowed this situation to develop over the last twenty years.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Russia running riot in Lille.

    They'll be out - what does it mean for the results though as England have drew and Slovakia beaten them. Wales yet to play them.
    No idea. A mate reckons they will average the points gained out between all sides. I can't see how they will do it.
    Sounds like England could get kicked out too.
    Nobody is getting kicked out for stuff that happens outside the stadium.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Oh my

    Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies

    Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son’s claims

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    There's something a bit fishy in all this.
    More cod journalism
    Gove's dad needs to learn his plaice.
    The halibut of a joke
    He's a sole practitioner
    A ray of hope?
    It's a porpoise built facility.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,531

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anecdote alert. A colleague of mine who I had expected to be 100% remain (Italian heritage, Oxford graduate, mid 20s professional) has just told me he's with the kind of punishment beatings that organised criminals would to a lowly shop keeper.

    Quite so. No matter what our heritage, we are a stoic people. We do not give into threats or bullies.

    One of the things that genuinely worried me about this campaign was a fear that, at the heart of our national character, that feature had quietly died.

    I'm impressed (and proud) that after months of the great and the good promising

    Given our stoicism and refusal to back down in the face of threats, it does make you wonder why Leave has spent so much time warning us all that if we do not vote to quit the EU we will imminently be overrun by Turks and other swarthy undesirables. Maybe a few Remainers are making a stand against that kind of complete nonsense, who knows? Or perhaps they are just sick and tired of being told by immensely privileged, wealthy people that if we do not do as they say we are cowards and afraid to stand up to bullies.

    The country is split down the middle and no one side has the monopoly on pluckiness, patriotism or anything else.

    I don't think there are many who are voting remaining out of defiance of the Leave arguments, maybe against the people in the leave camp though.

    I totally reject the Leave arguments about Turks and Turkey, and I find it very insulting to be told by people who have taken far fewer risks than I have in my life that I am somehow being kow-towed and weak because I do not agree with them. But I made my mind up before the insults started to fly so I guess that does not count.

    That said, I imagine there will be many on the Leave side who are sick of being called racists and xenophobes and what have you. There are a number of people on this board who have held their views consistently and cogently for a long time. I don't agree with them, but I respect them and admire their passion. Others, less so ;-)

    Sorry, SO, I wasn't questioning your patriotism or anyone else. I simply wanted to say how impressed I was with so much of the great British public sticking two fingers up to the Government led and coordinated campaign.

    I think concern about free movement and potential exacerbation of the issue in an enlarged EU, with additional poorer states and the U.K. out of synch with the eurozone potentially acting as an unemployment pressure value, are legitimate ones to campaign on. Particularly as it's often the public's number one issue.

    Have I always been impressed with how this has been done? No.
  • Options
    MikeL said:

    Why has Remain shortened so much today?

    1.66 late last night. 1.56 now.

    No new polls.

    If it wasn't for opinion polls Remain would of been a 1.01 Train.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    I totally reject the Leave arguments about Turks and Turkey, and I find it very insulting to be told by people who have taken far fewer risks than I have in my life that I am somehow being kow-towed and weak because I do not agree with them. But I made my mind up before the insults started to fly so I guess that does not count.

    That said, I imagine there will be many on the Leave side who are sick of being called racists and xenophobes and what have you. There are a number of people on this board who have held their views consistently and cogently for a long time. I don't agree with them, but I respect them and admire their passion. Others, less so ;-)

    Of course and I agree with you about Turkey, though the idea of the EU being in Erdogan's pocket worries me because he is just half a step away from being an Islamist dictator. I've also not had a conclusive answer if reciprocal labour and residency rights could be given to Turkey as part of a trade deal which worries me, but it doesn't form more than 1% of the reason I voted to leave.

    Well as someone who wants to make free movement global but impose enough of a cost on migrants to price out unskilled migration, it is slightly galling to be called a xenophobe!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. Jobabob, you would say, but sensible folk know we're better off trout.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,025
    Just back from an impressively liquid lunch in Birmingham with 8 other business folk from the region.

    They all had a good word to say about Osborne.

    Unfortunately for him it rhymes with punt.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DanSmith said:

    Scottish EU referendum poll: Remain: 58% (-8) Leave: 33% (+4)
    (via Ipsos Mori, phone (06 to 12 June 2016). Of those likely to vote.

    Scotland six months behind the rest of the UK?

    Is this good for Leave? Bad? How many Scots does Leave need.
    If Scotland is 100% remain then 55-45 in the rest of the UK+others wins it for leave.
  • Options
    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Jobabob said:

    Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.

    Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.

    Remain's dirty tricks department won't know whether to condemn the interference from across the ocean or to call Farage and Johnson Putin assets :) I'm expecting the unexpected in what could be a heck of a next seven days.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,144

    Just back from an impressively liquid lunch in Birmingham with 8 other business folk from the region.

    They all had a good word to say about Osborne.

    Unfortunately for him it rhymes with punt.

    Munt is a terrible world. You should be ashamed!
  • Options
    I am increasingly confident that 23rd June 2016 is going to be one of the three most important days in the history of this country since the battle of Hastings in 1066.

    The other two were, firstly, the day in which the Act of Supremacy received Royal assent in 1534, after which The Pope could no longer strike down acts of Parliament and, secondly, the day that the Bill of Rights recieved Royal Assent in 1689 after which the King was whoever Parliament pleased it to be King and full sovereignty rested with Parliament.

    Let it be said next Friday, as it was said at the end of the Bill of Rights 1689 that forevermore "no foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority... within this realm"
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Where are all the FTSE and currency updates today? I've had to go and look them up elsewhere.

    I though pb was diversifying into a mixed politics/economy site. Disappointed.

    Something to do with this:

    British Pound Recovers from Sun Meltdown on Strong Wage Growth Data, Seen Up vs Euro and Dollar. The GBP is in recovery mode 24 hours after the currency was hit by fresh polling data and news that the Sun newspaper has decided to support Brexit.

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/4988-pound-exchange-rates-today

    How is it possible that there has been strong wages growth when immigrants are keeping salaries low and the Turks are just about to invade?

    Only strong in relative terms. 2.3% wage growth is weak by pre-2005 standards.

    Pre-crash standards.

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070

    MikeL said:

    Why has Remain shortened so much today?

    1.66 late last night. 1.56 now.

    No new polls.

    If it wasn't for opinion polls Remain would of been a 1.01 Train.

    Yep, it turns out the betting markets are deeply flawed indicators of what is really happening. It still beggars belief that just a couple of weeks back I was getting odds of 7-1 and 8-1 on Leave winning.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John_N4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.

    Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.
    Leave is good for extremists everywhere

    @LOS_Fisher: FT comes out for Remain, saying the "coherence of the west" is at stake & Brexit cd "reawaken ghosts of nationalism" https://t.co/C6IfphUCJF

    I have just had a punt on Le Pen
  • Options
    MikeL said:

    Why has Remain shortened so much today?

    1.66 late last night. 1.56 now.

    No new polls.

    Money talks?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Where are all the FTSE and currency updates today? I've had to go and look them up elsewhere.

    I though pb was diversifying into a mixed politics/economy site. Disappointed.

    Something to do with this:

    British Pound Recovers from Sun Meltdown on Strong Wage Growth Data, Seen Up vs Euro and Dollar. The GBP is in recovery mode 24 hours after the currency was hit by fresh polling data and news that the Sun newspaper has decided to support Brexit.

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/4988-pound-exchange-rates-today

    How is it possible that there has been strong wages growth when immigrants are keeping salaries low and the Turks are just about to invade?

    Only strong in relative terms. 2.3% wage growth is weak by pre-2005 standards.

    Pre-crash standards.

    No, pre-A10. That's when wage growth slowed down and 2-3% became the trend.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,093

    Just back from an impressively liquid lunch in Birmingham with 8 other business folk from the region.

    They all had a good word to say about Osborne.

    Unfortunately for him it rhymes with punt.

    Like Jeremy ?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.
  • Options
    Jobabob said:

    marke09 said:

    Looks like it nmay be kicking off in France again - SKY News


    Russia are surely out. They have set off flares in the stadium, and have attacked Slovakia.
    If you're right then probably all three remaining sides from this group will qualify.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,025
    RobD said:

    Just back from an impressively liquid lunch in Birmingham with 8 other business folk from the region.

    They all had a good word to say about Osborne.

    Unfortunately for him it rhymes with punt.

    Munt is a terrible world. You should be ashamed!
    more of a James Naughtie/ Jeremy Hunt arrangement :-)
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    The FT declaring for Remain is as surprising as bears shitting in the woods.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    kle4 said:

    I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.

    It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on

    As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.

    Wow. Coming from you.

    He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020

    Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.

    It's not really that good to see the back of them then is it? That's like saying its good I'ev gotten that nasty spider out of my house, the only downside is it was replaced by a million of them.

    It's more like: The good news is that Dave and George are off; the bad news is that Boris and Priti are taking over. Though I do think that the latter are less likely to deliver an overall Tory majority, especially given what will happen post-Brexit; so in the slightly more medium-term it is probably good news (except for those who end up losing out as they take the government even further to the right).

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. Bedfordshire, no love for an ageing William Marshal throwing the French out when they'd conquered half the country in the early 13th century?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Scott_P said:

    John_N4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.

    Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.
    Leave is good for extremists everywhere

    @LOS_Fisher: FT comes out for Remain, saying the "coherence of the west" is at stake & Brexit cd "reawaken ghosts of nationalism" https://t.co/C6IfphUCJF

    I have just had a punt on Le Pen
    Better off having a punt on PVV/Wilders if you can get a price anywhere.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @RichardNabavi not just confident that every expert is wrong, but confident that every expert is wrong in their hoped-for direction.

    It must be just as likely that the consensus of experts is over-optimistic.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    I totally reject the Leave arguments about Turks and Turkey, and I find it very insulting to be told by people who have taken far fewer risks than I have in my life that I am somehow being kow-towed and weak because I do not agree with them. But I made my mind up before the insults started to fly so I guess that does not count.

    That said, I imagine there will be many on the Leave side who are sick of being called racists and xenophobes and what have you. There are a number of people on this board who have held their views consistently and cogently for a long time. I don't agree with them, but I respect them and admire their passion. Others, less so ;-)

    Of course and I agree with you about Turkey, though the idea of the EU being in Erdogan's pocket worries me because he is just half a step away from being an Islamist dictator. I've also not had a conclusive answer if reciprocal labour and residency rights could be given to Turkey as part of a trade deal which worries me, but it doesn't form more than 1% of the reason I voted to leave.

    Well as someone who wants to make free movement global but impose enough of a cost on migrants to price out unskilled migration, it is slightly galling to be called a xenophobe!
    Not xenophobic, but terribly elitist. It sounds like you want the world to become the playground of the rich while making sure the plebs stay in their places.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Reuters: BREAKING: NRA says anyone on terrorism watchlist who tries to buy a gun should be investigated by the FBI and the sale delayed.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,264
    Have Darling and Osborne really united in peddling scare stories about the public finances ???

    This pair have continuously been in charge of public finances since June 2007.

    During that time the government debt has increased from £544bn to £1,596bn.

    They borrowed between them over a TRILLION pounds in under a decade and now they're pretending to believe in sound financial management ???
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    "No one sentimentally mourns Austria-Hungary." Has the author ever been to Hungary? They may not be too bothered about Cisleithania but many Hungarians have empire badges and bumper stickers and recently monuments have started going up across the country sentimentally mourning the empire.

    Elsewhere in the former empire it is not mourned, of course. Budapest was guilty of a sustained process of magyarisation.
  • Options

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Oh my

    Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies

    Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son’s claims

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    There's something a bit fishy in all this.
    More cod journalism
    Gove's dad needs to learn his plaice.
    The halibut of a joke
    He's a sole practitioner
    Gove's father is voting leave and then shoots down his own sons quote, so it's a case of don't interrupt your anemone when he's making a mistake.
    Guardian pressuring an 80+ year old man. Some would call it elderly abuse.

    "Ernest Gove said he would be voting leave on 23 June and was proud of his son “for standing up for all the folk who lost their jobs because of Europe”.

    “I don’t know what this reporter is going on about,” Ernest Gove added in a statement. “Everybody in the north-east knows it was Europe that did such damage to the fish trade. The common fisheries policy was a disaster, not just for Aberdeen, but all of Scotland. There wasn’t any future for my business. It closed as a direct result of Europe.”
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.


    Just like those 364 economists apologised to Thatcher?

  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    There are probably few people who've read and inwardly digested the IFS report, which has been very useful. I have. Had a couple of meetings (and some soul-searching phone calls) with my IFA. If I'm wrong, I'll be poorer by several hundred thousand pounds. Will my ruin suffice in lieu of an apology? I'm not a huge fan of the modern trend for the faux apology.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,025

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    I can't see it myself

    personally I'll be blaming you for not giving me sufficient guidance.
  • Options

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    Don't be daft. It'll all be Remain's fault for having run such an awful campaign.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    kle4 said:

    I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.

    It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on

    As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.

    Wow. Coming from you.

    He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020

    Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.

    It's not really that good to see the back of them then is it? That's like saying its good I'ev gotten that nasty spider out of my house, the only downside is it was replaced by a million of them.

    It's more like: The good news is that Dave and George are off; the bad news is that Boris and Priti are taking over. Though I do think that the latter are less likely to deliver an overall Tory majority, especially given what will happen post-Brexit; so in the slightly more medium-term it is probably good news (except for those who end up losing out as they take the government even further to the right).

    If we Brexit, Priti as Home Sec would delight me. First minority to hold the job - and she'd take no nonsense.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    @RichardNabavi not just confident that every expert is wrong, but confident that every expert is wrong in their hoped-for direction.

    It must be just as likely that the consensus of experts is over-optimistic.

    Quite possibly, given that the economists haven't usually taken into account the political chaos which looks very likely.
  • Options

    tpfkar said:

    Fenster said:


    Case in point - Osborne's Post Brexit Emergency Budget.

    We all know it is a fib, because in the event of Brexit he won't be able to get a budget through parliament. He doesn't have the numbers, so wouldn't risk it. It'd be suicide.

    But ah! He thinks people are stupid enough to believe it. Indeed, we've all been going round thinking the ranked masses of the great unwashed (me included) will believe it. Because. We. Are. Fucking. Ignorant. And. Stupid.

    But as the emergence of Corbyn, Trump, UKIP (to a degree), Boaty McBoatFace, the Scots Nats and now the (unthinkable six months ago) possibility of Brexit shows, people do listen. They do smell the bullshit. And they vote in protest.

    We clearly aren't as stupid as we think, or they think.

    Although I haven't gone as far as switching to Leave, I have to agree with most of this - this nonsense about a post-Brexit budget he'd have no authority to dole out sums up the ridiculous remain campaign, and why I haven't wanted to be associated at all (I've pretty much sat it out.) For goodness sake, we've had 70 years of peace in Europe, living standards unimaginable from a generation ago, interconnectivity of industry, research and academia like never before. And all Remain could come up with was Project Fear, name-call Boris, Farage and Gove, and wilt as soon as the other side complained about immigration.

    I confess, quietly, though - it will be fascinating to see what happens if we go over the cliff next Thursday. Every time a nation has come close in my political lifetime, it's always stepped back from the brink at the 11th hour - this would be a whole new world and who knows who'd be inspired / horrified by the results.
    I'd agree with that, though I think you're being unduly harsh on the Remain campaign. Yes, there's been some quite contemptible name-calling, but I don't see anything wrong with pointing out what we are giving up by leaving the EU. Leave's innumerate jingoistic populism has been far worse.

    I will obviously be breathing a sigh of relief for the future of my children and breaking out the champaign if Remain wins, but I'd be kidding myself if I didn't admit that there is a morbid little devil in me that sneakily looks forward to witnessing the economic devastation and political chaos wrought by a Leave victory. So long as I and my loved ones remain relatively unscathed, that is.
    Is this the best Vapid Bilge of the day?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Miss Plato, would be interesting, given her views on hanging.

    She really ought to be leader. Her, or Justine Greening.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's more like: The good news is that Dave and George are off; the bad news is that Boris and Priti are taking over.

    Has anyone posted their fantasy Brexit cabinet yet?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,025

    @RichardNabavi not just confident that every expert is wrong, but confident that every expert is wrong in their hoped-for direction.

    It must be just as likely that the consensus of experts is over-optimistic.

    hey experts

    I can buy my opinion from them any time I like.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.


    Just like those 364 economists apologised to Thatcher?

    Actually, some of them did.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    John_N4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.

    Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.

    Remain's dirty tricks department won't know whether to condemn the interference from across the ocean or to call Farage and Johnson Putin assets :) I'm expecting the unexpected in what could be a heck of a next seven days.

    I think you overestimate how much attention the average American is paying to the referendum, let alone the demographics that Trump appeals to. I'd imagine a fair few of them will not have heard of Britain. Maybe England, Scotland and Ireland (not Wales), but Britain or the United Kingdom, hmmm.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Dadge It's not Austria-Hungary that the Hungarian nationalists mourn, but greater Hungary.

    I have been to Hungary once or twice, yes.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,144

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    Did they apologise for the Euro... ;)
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    John_M said:

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    There are probably few people who've read and inwardly digested the IFS report, which has been very useful. I have. Had a couple of meetings (and some soul-searching phone calls) with my IFA. If I'm wrong, I'll be poorer by several hundred thousand pounds. Will my ruin suffice in lieu of an apology? I'm not a huge fan of the modern trend for the faux apology.
    What (in general terms) has your strategy been, if you don't mind me asking?
  • Options
    I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches.
    Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scott_P said:

    @Reuters: BREAKING: NRA says anyone on terrorism watchlist who tries to buy a gun should be investigated by the FBI and the sale delayed.

    Trump has whispered in their ear.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Miss Plato, would be interesting, given her views on hanging.

    She really ought to be leader. Her, or Justine Greening.

    She's too rich for my blood - but she's no bed-wetter. Isn't hanging in the Lord Chancellor's dept as justice?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches.
    Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.

    I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,264

    @RichardNabavi not just confident that every expert is wrong, but confident that every expert is wrong in their hoped-for direction.

    It must be just as likely that the consensus of experts is over-optimistic.

    hey experts

    I can buy my opinion from them any time I like.
    You can buy multiple opinions from them all at the same time.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    PlatoSaid said:

    kle4 said:

    I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.

    It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on

    As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.

    Wow. Coming from you.

    He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020

    Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.

    It's not really that good to see the back of them then is it? That's like saying its good I'ev gotten that nasty spider out of my house, the only downside is it was replaced by a million of them.

    It's more like: The good news is that Dave and George are off; the bad news is that Boris and Priti are taking over. Though I do think that the latter are less likely to deliver an overall Tory majority, especially given what will happen post-Brexit; so in the slightly more medium-term it is probably good news (except for those who end up losing out as they take the government even further to the right).

    If we Brexit, Priti as Home Sec would delight me. First minority to hold the job - and she'd take no nonsense.

    She'd just talk it.

    Aren't Jack Straw and Michael Howard Jewish?

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,127
    John_N4 said:

    The subsequent conquest by the Soviets after WW2 was an unavoidable consequence of this and the Yugoslavian War came about exactly because separate countries with very different ethnic and religious backgrounds were forced together.

    They weren't "forced". Upon the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian empire came the setting up in 1918 of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, renamed "Yugoslavia" in 1929, and surely you aren't a fan of either the Croat Ustashi fascists or the Serb Chetnik fascists of the Yugoslav war period which is known in some countries as WW2. The former were guilty of massacres on a horrendous scale and today's state of Croatia still waves the Ustashi flag and counts the "independent" Ustashi regime of the early 1940s as its previous incarnation. I am no Titoist, but it is a fact that many of the groups of Serbs and Croats and other nationalities - and people who didn't care much of a toss about what kind of South Slav they were - who joined the Partisans were precisely those who wanted to stop the inter-ethnic slaughter - to stop suffering it and to stop it happening at the hands of those with whom they supposedly shared a Serb ethnicity, or a Croat one, as the case may be. If the country had stayed united in the 1990s, and essentially fascist groups hadn't been stirred up and armed and supported from the outside, including from Hungary and Germany, perhaps the warfare which caused so many people to become refugees ("ethnically cleansed") could have been avoided. In short, many areas were ethnically very mixed. Y'know, like London today.
    There's the difference. I am very much a Titoist. He was the only man who was able to hold the artificial country together and keep peace between the various factions. If he had not then we would have had the bloodshed far sooner in the region, quite possibly whilst the Cold War was still in progress with all the risks that entailed.

    And if you read the history of the formation of Yugoslavia after 1918 it was very much forced on many of the territories with the Serbs threatening to simply conquer the lands that held Serbs militarily if their demands were not met
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches.
    Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.

    Tatton has had some rum coves - Hamilton and now Osborne.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Miss Plato, ah, you're right on Justice/Home. I still forget about that. Justice always makes me think of 1984.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    I can't see it myself

    personally I'll be blaming you for not giving me sufficient guidance.
    I thought you said my guidance has been invaluable in helping you form your view?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    MaxPB said:

    I totally reject the Leave arguments about Turks and Turkey, and I find it very insulting to be told by people who have taken far fewer risks than I have in my life that I am somehow being kow-towed and weak because I do not agree with them. But I made my mind up before the insults started to fly so I guess that does not count.

    That said, I imagine there will be many on the Leave side who are sick of being called racists and xenophobes and what have you. There are a number of people on this board who have held their views consistently and cogently for a long time. I don't agree with them, but I respect them and admire their passion. Others, less so ;-)

    Of course and I agree with you about Turkey, though the idea of the EU being in Erdogan's pocket worries me because he is just half a step away from being an Islamist dictator. I've also not had a conclusive answer if reciprocal labour and residency rights could be given to Turkey as part of a trade deal which worries me, but it doesn't form more than 1% of the reason I voted to leave.

    Well as someone who wants to make free movement global but impose enough of a cost on migrants to price out unskilled migration, it is slightly galling to be called a xenophobe!
    Not xenophobic, but terribly elitist. It sounds like you want the world to become the playground of the rich while making sure the plebs stay in their places.
    No, I want immigration to add value to the country, it will give us higher economic growth which could fund better education and training for our own "plebs" as you put it.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    John_N4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.

    Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.

    Remain's dirty tricks department won't know whether to condemn the interference from across the ocean or to call Farage and Johnson Putin assets :) I'm expecting the unexpected in what could be a heck of a next seven days.

    I think you overestimate how much attention the average American is paying to the referendum, let alone the demographics that Trump appeals to. I'd imagine a fair few of them will not have heard of Britain. Maybe England, Scotland and Ireland (not Wales), but Britain or the United Kingdom, hmmm.

    Trump coming on the eve of poll will hurt Leave badly- maybe enough to cost them if it is neck and neck?
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,331

    tpfkar said:

    Fenster said:


    Case in point - Osborne's Post Brexit Emergency Budget.

    We all know it is a fib, because in the event of Brexit he won't be able to get a budget through parliament. He doesn't have the numbers, so wouldn't risk it. It'd be suicide.

    But ah! He thinks people are stupid enough to believe it. Indeed, we've all been going round thinking the ranked masses of the great unwashed (me included) will believe it. Because. We. Are. Fucking. Ignorant. And. Stupid.

    But as the emergence of Corbyn, Trump, UKIP (to a degree), Boaty McBoatFace, the Scots Nats and now the (unthinkable six months ago) possibility of Brexit shows, people do listen. They do smell the bullshit. And they vote in protest.

    We clearly aren't as stupid as we think, or they think.

    Although I haven't gone as far as switching to Leave, I have to agree with most of this - this nonsense about a post-Brexit budget he'd have no authority to dole out sums up the ridiculous remain campaign, and why I haven't wanted to be associated at all (I've pretty much sat it out.) For goodness sake, we've had 70 years of peace in Europe, living standards unimaginable from a generation ago, interconnectivity of industry, research and academia like never before. And all Remain could come up with was Project Fear, name-call Boris, Farage and Gove, and wilt as soon as the other side complained about immigration.

    I confess, quietly, though - it will be fascinating to see what happens if we go over the cliff next Thursday. Every time a nation has come close in my political lifetime, it's always stepped back from the brink at the 11th hour - this would be a whole new world and who knows who'd be inspired / horrified by the results.
    I'd agree with that, though I think you're being unduly harsh on the Remain campaign. Yes, there's been some quite contemptible name-calling, but I don't see anything wrong with pointing out what we are giving up by leaving the EU. Leave's innumerate jingoistic populism has been far worse.

    I will obviously be breathing a sigh of relief for the future of my children and breaking out the champaign if Remain wins, but I'd be kidding myself if I didn't admit that there is a morbid little devil in me that sneakily looks forward to witnessing the economic devastation and political chaos wrought by a Leave victory. So long as I and my loved ones remain relatively unscathed, that is.

    Mr. Jobabob, you would say, but sensible folk know we're better off trout.

    That Cameron, eel never lose.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,127

    PlatoSaid said:

    kle4 said:

    I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.

    It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on

    As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.

    Wow. Coming from you.

    He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020

    Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.

    It's not really that good to see the back of them then is it? That's like saying its good I'ev gotten that nasty spider out of my house, the only downside is it was replaced by a million of them.

    It's more like: The good news is that Dave and George are off; the bad news is that Boris and Priti are taking over. Though I do think that the latter are less likely to deliver an overall Tory majority, especially given what will happen post-Brexit; so in the slightly more medium-term it is probably good news (except for those who end up losing out as they take the government even further to the right).

    If we Brexit, Priti as Home Sec would delight me. First minority to hold the job - and she'd take no nonsense.

    She'd just talk it.

    Aren't Jack Straw and Michael Howard Jewish?

    I could never support Priti as Home Secretary given her support for Capital Punishment.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Alistair said:

    DanSmith said:

    Scottish EU referendum poll: Remain: 58% (-8) Leave: 33% (+4)
    (via Ipsos Mori, phone (06 to 12 June 2016). Of those likely to vote.

    Scotland six months behind the rest of the UK?

    Is this good for Leave? Bad? How many Scots does Leave need.
    If Scotland is 100% remain then 55-45 in the rest of the UK+others wins it for leave.
    Thanks.
  • Options

    Have Darling and Osborne really united in peddling scare stories about the public finances ???
    This pair have continuously been in charge of public finances since June 2007.
    During that time the government debt has increased from £544bn to £1,596bn.
    They borrowed between them over a TRILLION pounds in under a decade and now they're pretending to believe in sound financial management ???

    Great point. Added one thousand billion in debt and now threatening another 30 billion. Almost a rounding error in the scale of the debt that they added.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I thought BSE had a superb microtargeting strategy? I come in from work to find a leaflet addressed to me which bangs on about my family. I am in the wrong age group to have a family. My mother had also received one. This one banged on about maternity leave. She went through the menopause about a decade ago...
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,025

    @RichardNabavi not just confident that every expert is wrong, but confident that every expert is wrong in their hoped-for direction.

    It must be just as likely that the consensus of experts is over-optimistic.

    hey experts

    I can buy my opinion from them any time I like.
    You can buy multiple opinions from them all at the same time.
    LOL

    I've had accountants, lawyers, actuaries and strategic consultants over the years and miraculously they all agree with you if you're paying them give or take a minor quibble to pretend they have principles.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,331
    PlatoSaid said:

    I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches.
    Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.

    Tatton has had some rum coves - Hamilton and now Osborne.
    And to think Ozza was your pinup boy not 18 months ago...
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,919

    Have Darling and Osborne really united in peddling scare stories about the public finances ???

    This pair have continuously been in charge of public finances since June 2007.

    During that time the government debt has increased from £544bn to £1,596bn.

    They borrowed between them over a TRILLION pounds in under a decade and now they're pretending to believe in sound financial management ???

    It's very bad. They really are just scaremongering now. If they stuck to the kernel of truth in their argument against leaving they'd be fine - it's a good argument. To wander off into some prophecy of doom though is both irresponsible and dishonest.

    Osborne may finish up transforming himself from a decent chancellor to a really fantastically bad one. He has to be more careful about what he says. His stupidity is costing the UK quite a bit and may well finish up being far more damaging than Brexit (which may not in itself be bad at all).

    Both sides are just being stupid.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I totally reject the Leave arguments about Turks and Turkey, and I find it very insulting to be told by people who have taken far fewer risks than I have in my life that I am somehow being kow-towed and weak because I do not agree with them. But I made my mind up before the insults started to fly so I guess that does not count.

    That said, I imagine there will be many on the Leave side who are sick of being called racists and xenophobes and what have you. There are a number of people on this board who have held their views consistently and cogently for a long time. I don't agree with them, but I respect them and admire their passion. Others, less so ;-)

    Of course and I agree with you about Turkey, though the idea of the EU being in Erdogan's pocket worries me because he is just half a step away from being an Islamist dictator. I've also not had a conclusive answer if reciprocal labour and residency rights could be given to Turkey as part of a trade deal which worries me, but it doesn't form more than 1% of the reason I voted to leave.

    Well as someone who wants to make free movement global but impose enough of a cost on migrants to price out unskilled migration, it is slightly galling to be called a xenophobe!
    Not xenophobic, but terribly elitist. It sounds like you want the world to become the playground of the rich while making sure the plebs stay in their places.
    No, I want immigration to add value to the country, it will give us higher economic growth which could fund better education and training for our own "plebs" as you put it.
    Who's going to fill all the jobs that the highly educated plebs will no longer countenance doing?
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Oh my

    Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies

    Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son’s claims

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics

    There's something a bit fishy in all this.
    Crooked Michael Gove as Donald Trump would put it.
    Or "Mr Gove, Sir" as you will be calling him in a couple of months if he wins the Tory leadership contest :D
  • Options
    Laura Kuensberg "some ministers are incredulous at Osborne's budget announcement". Implication that this is REMAIN ministers saying it.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Miss Plato, ah, you're right on Justice/Home. I still forget about that. Justice always makes me think of 1984.

    If we Brexit - the political fallout will be bonkers for Cameron/George. The level of unhappiness with the pair of them is eye-popping. I can't see how they'd survive more than a few days or so. What an incredible event that would be.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,264

    I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches.
    Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.

    I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.

    They have a right to be very angry.

    The damage which Osborne is doing to the Conservative brand is long term.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    I could never support Priti as Home Secretary given her support for Capital Punishment.

    Indeed, not sure a hang 'em and flog 'em Tory is what we need, though I would back her for leader ironically.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    There are probably few people who've read and inwardly digested the IFS report, which has been very useful. I have. Had a couple of meetings (and some soul-searching phone calls) with my IFA. If I'm wrong, I'll be poorer by several hundred thousand pounds. Will my ruin suffice in lieu of an apology? I'm not a huge fan of the modern trend for the faux apology.
    What (in general terms) has your strategy been, if you don't mind me asking?
    I'm very cautious - global, as diversified as possible, low-medium risk. But like most of us, if Brexit ends up being global financial Armageddon, there are few safe havens for the ordinary investor.

    However, unless I've grossly misunderstood the IFA report, the downsides are based around opportunity costs, rather than 'every person in the UK reduced to eating cat food three times a week'.

    I appreciate that each side likes to use shorthand to caricature the opposition. I find no difficulty in understanding that I may be wrong. But it still irks me when people assume I've just slapped on some woad and am running around crying "Freeeeeeeeddooom!!!". I guess we all have our crosses to bear.

  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    nunu said:

    John_N4 said:

    Jobabob said:

    Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.

    Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.

    Remain's dirty tricks department won't know whether to condemn the interference from across the ocean or to call Farage and Johnson Putin assets :) I'm expecting the unexpected in what could be a heck of a next seven days.

    I think you overestimate how much attention the average American is paying to the referendum, let alone the demographics that Trump appeals to. I'd imagine a fair few of them will not have heard of Britain. Maybe England, Scotland and Ireland (not Wales), but Britain or the United Kingdom, hmmm.

    Trump coming on the eve of poll will hurt Leave badly- maybe enough to cost them if it is neck and neck?
    Will it really? Will sufficient voters care what he thinks? I doubt it.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,093
    John_M said:

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    There are probably few people who've read and inwardly digested the IFS report, which has been very useful. I have. Had a couple of meetings (and some soul-searching phone calls) with my IFA. If I'm wrong, I'll be poorer by several hundred thousand pounds. Will my ruin suffice in lieu of an apology? I'm not a huge fan of the modern trend for the faux apology.
    Are you highly leveraged into Chelsea flats or some such ?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,025

    As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.

    I can't see it myself

    personally I'll be blaming you for not giving me sufficient guidance.
    I thought you said my guidance has been invaluable in helping you form your view?
    Precisely Richard.

    but as I blog here today I still can't tell if you're in or out .

    you've been unusually retienct over the last 6 months ;-)
This discussion has been closed.