I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
They have a right to be very angry.
The damage which Osborne is doing to the Conservative brand is long term.
Absolutely.
I see we're up to 65 MPs have now signed the Osborne letter.
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
We all know that everything changes on 24th June. All of a sudden, for example, EEA/EFTA is going to be a very favoured option, while some Leavers will remind us that the referendum was only advisory. Passporting for the City will become a price worth paying for free movement of people, and so on. I just wish it were possible to buy shares in the word "Betrayal".
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.
I can't see it myself
personally I'll be blaming you for not giving me sufficient guidance.
I thought you said my guidance has been invaluable in helping you form your view?
Precisely Richard.
but as I blog here today I still can't tell if you're in or out .
you've been unusually retienct over the last 6 months ;-)
As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.
There are probably few people who've read and inwardly digested the IFS report, which has been very useful. I have. Had a couple of meetings (and some soul-searching phone calls) with my IFA. If I'm wrong, I'll be poorer by several hundred thousand pounds. Will my ruin suffice in lieu of an apology? I'm not a huge fan of the modern trend for the faux apology.
Are you highly leveraged into Chelsea flats or some such ?
The more excitable commentators are assuming that the UK is going transition more-or-less instantly from the 1st to the 3rd world, which belies every single long term trend since the year dot. But they might be right. In which case *rattles cup*, hey buddy, can you spare a dime?
Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.
Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.
Remain's dirty tricks department won't know whether to condemn the interference from across the ocean or to call Farage and Johnson Putin assets I'm expecting the unexpected in what could be a heck of a next seven days.
I think you overestimate how much attention the average American is paying to the referendum, let alone the demographics that Trump appeals to. I'd imagine a fair few of them will not have heard of Britain. Maybe England, Scotland and Ireland (not Wales), but Britain or the United Kingdom, hmmm.
Trump coming on the eve of poll will hurt Leave badly- maybe enough to cost them if it is neck and neck?
Will it really? Will sufficient voters care what he thinks? I doubt it.
No but it will enrage all the guardianistas who will overreact like a certain mogul on a boar did today which should help leave
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
Err, he kept all those pledges.
If we Brexit, all bets are off
No, he didn't. He put intelligence, which is part of foreign office spending, under defence, to meet his target.
Nah. Most likely outcome is Leave win, Hillary win. The two are largely unconnected, psephologically.
Trump will play a "we the people can do it - because in Britain the people just did" card. A Leave win will be good for Trump. The question is to what extent. If he openly interferes beforehand, he can say he helped the people win against the establishment.
Remain's dirty tricks department won't know whether to condemn the interference from across the ocean or to call Farage and Johnson Putin assets I'm expecting the unexpected in what could be a heck of a next seven days.
I think you overestimate how much attention the average American is paying to the referendum, let alone the demographics that Trump appeals to. I'd imagine a fair few of them will not have heard of Britain. Maybe England, Scotland and Ireland (not Wales), but Britain or the United Kingdom, hmmm.
Trump coming on the eve of poll will hurt Leave badly- maybe enough to cost them if it is neck and neck?
Will it really? Will sufficient voters care what he thinks? I doubt it.
yeah on second thought it won't make any difference actually, won't stop BBC using to bash the Leave campaign though.
I was absolutely disgusted at the way PMQs was used as a pro-Remain rally today, complete with Labour MP, Mary Creagh, wearing a Remain-In t-shirt. I thought that was against the rules. The arrogant sneering from the Remainers just made me so angry. The state of our politics at the moment is just beyond dire.
It is not surprising when the HOC is 480 remain - 150 leave. As far as wearing your colours both sides did that in the chamber today. As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap. I would also concide that momentum is with leave and if that is the will of the people I will have no hesitation in accepting the result and will move on
As a remainer I would say that George Osborne was plain stupid today and needs to go asap.
Wow. Coming from you.
He was using it to get the economy back on the agenda and I am sure he knows he is a goner. He has been a disaster recently and if remain lose it will be in no small part down to him. Time to have a big shake up in the cabinet post 23rd and it will be very interesting to see the fallout on all parties, but the conservative party have a desire to govern and they will be the government right upto 2020
Both Cameron and Osborne are reaping what they have sown. It will be good to see the back of them. The only downside is that something even worse is about to take over.
Indeed SO. The Tories on the Leave side are political pygmies and that's me being kind. Priti Patel - what a joke that woman - the worst kind of vacuous right wing loon.
As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.
I can't see it myself
personally I'll be blaming you for not giving me sufficient guidance.
I thought you said my guidance has been invaluable in helping you form your view?
Precisely Richard.
but as I blog here today I still can't tell if you're in or out .
you've been unusually retienct over the last 6 months ;-)
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
They have a right to be very angry.
The damage which Osborne is doing to the Conservative brand is long term.
Whatever gives you the idea that people who voted Conservative approve of Osborne and his plans.
They voted Conservative because Milibands lot were awful and had no chance of a majority which meant that Salmond and Sturgeon would get to interfere.
Also because Tory Majority = Referedum on EU next week.
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
We all know that everything changes on 24th June. All of a sudden, for example, EEA/EFTA is going to be a very favoured option, while some Leavers will remind us that the referendum was only advisory. Passporting for the City will become a price worth paying for free movement of people, and so on. I just wish it were possible to buy shares in the word "Betrayal".
Why should the working classes have to pay for slightly reduced costs for the bankers in one small area of financial service exports?
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
They have a right to be very angry.
The damage which Osborne is doing to the Conservative brand is long term.
Osborne will have played his part, for sure. But I'd wait until we vote to leave before apportioning all the blame for the damage being done tot he Tory brand. The fun is only just starting. It's just a shame they are supposed to be running the country.
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
Err, he kept all those pledges.
If we Brexit, all bets are off
Right, so China can fall off a cliff, the US tank and oil drop to 1 p a barrel and the lock will hold.
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
Err, he kept all those pledges.
If we Brexit, all bets are off
Was he not aware of the referendum he called? I don't remember a Brexit caveat in the manifesto.
You're frit because your top two are on the way out but you will be spinning as long as they circle the plughole
I share others concerns about Patel's views on the death penalty. How about Douglas Carswell in a unity government? He seems strong on civil liberties. Dominic Raab also has a strong record on these matters.
William Wallace was known as William the Briton during his life. He was from the Kingdom of the Rock (a Brythonic [Welsh] kingdom). Despite being practically the only man Edward I captured who had never sworn an oath to obey the king, he was executed and most others were let off.
Of course, woad was more Pictish. So that was a thousand year error in a film reputedly full of them.
I'm very cautious - global, as diversified as possible, low-medium risk. But like most of us, if Brexit ends up being global financial Armageddon, there are few safe havens for the ordinary investor.
However, unless I've grossly misunderstood the IFA report, the downsides are based around opportunity costs, rather than 'every person in the UK reduced to eating cat food three times a week'.
Yes, that's pretty much my strategy. The problem is that the obvious ways of protecting yourself against Brexit (in the short term) - such as moving heavily into US Dollar or Swiss Franc denominated assets - are likely to be actively harmful in the event of a Remain result, and vice versa. That means they are bets rather than investment strategies. The best approach is, as you say, to maintain an internationally diversified portfolio, although in the event of Brexit it will probably be a choppy ride whatever happens.
Where I disagree with you is on the downside risks. I think you are perhaps confusing the long-term effects (caused by changes in the structure of our trade after we adjust to a different model without full access to the Single Market), with the short-term uncertainty effect.
I think these two articles are quite helpful, especially (for investment planning) the Neil Woodford one:
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
We all know that everything changes on 24th June. All of a sudden, for example, EEA/EFTA is going to be a very favoured option, while some Leavers will remind us that the referendum was only advisory. Passporting for the City will become a price worth paying for free movement of people, and so on. I just wish it were possible to buy shares in the word "Betrayal".
Why should the working classes have to pay for slightly reduced costs for the bankers in one small area of financial service exports?
Well, the Tory Leavers have not had a problem with the working class subsidising the bankers up to now (see QE, for example), so I am not sure why anything will change post-Brexit vote.
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
We all know that everything changes on 24th June. All of a sudden, for example, EEA/EFTA is going to be a very favoured option, while some Leavers will remind us that the referendum was only advisory. Passporting for the City will become a price worth paying for free movement of people, and so on. I just wish it were possible to buy shares in the word "Betrayal".
Why should the working classes have to pay for slightly reduced costs for the bankers in one small area of financial service exports?
Well, the Tory Leavers have not had a problem with the working class subsidising the bankers up to now (see QE, for example), so I am not sure why anything will change post-Brexit vote.
William Wallace was known as William the Briton during his life. He was from the Kingdom of the Rock (a Brythonic [Welsh] kingdom). Despite being practically the only man Edward I captured who had never sworn an oath to obey the king, he was executed and most others were let off.
Of course, woad was more Pictish. So that was a thousand year error in a film reputedly full of them.
Thanks Mr Dancer, that is a most interesting factoid. While Braveheart is an enjoyable film, I find I do have to be slightly pissed to watch it, as Gibson has even less respect for historical facts than the average Hollywood director. I'm a big fan of Edward I, so it's doubly painful.
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
We all know that everything changes on 24th June. All of a sudden, for example, EEA/EFTA is going to be a very favoured option, while some Leavers will remind us that the referendum was only advisory. Passporting for the City will become a price worth paying for free movement of people, and so on. I just wish it were possible to buy shares in the word "Betrayal".
Why should the working classes have to pay for slightly reduced costs for the bankers in one small area of financial service exports?
Well, the Tory Leavers have not had a problem with the working class subsidising the bankers up to now (see QE, for example), so I am not sure why anything will change post-Brexit vote.
Of course lots of us have. Stop making it up.
I wasn't aware you are a Tory MP or minister supporting the Leave campaign.
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I wonder how all the PBers who campaigned for the Conservatives last year feel now that Osborne has proved that all the pledges to protect health, education and defence spending were lies.
They have a right to be very angry.
The damage which Osborne is doing to the Conservative brand is long term.
Whatever gives you the idea that people who voted Conservative approve of Osborne and his plans.
They voted Conservative because Milibands lot were awful and had no chance of a majority which meant that Salmond and Sturgeon would get to interfere.
Also because Tory Majority = Referedum on EU next week.
I think it may be that bad is better than really bad. Particularly economically.
Labour have of course gone from very bad to far far worse, and it seems that Osborne wishes to take the Tories to just a shade better than the Labour position.
In this climate Farage looks sensible. (Endless interviews on his specialist subject help)
My regard and consideration for the people of Scotland become entirely secondary if stupidity is taking hold in England.
I share others concerns about Patel's views on the death penalty. How about Douglas Carswell in a unity government? He seems strong on civil liberties. Dominic Raab also has a strong record on these matters.
Most UKIP voters would back the death penalty, even I would for serial killers
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
We all know that everything changes on 24th June. All of a sudden, for example, EEA/EFTA is going to be a very favoured option, while some Leavers will remind us that the referendum was only advisory. Passporting for the City will become a price worth paying for free movement of people, and so on. I just wish it were possible to buy shares in the word "Betrayal".
Why should the working classes have to pay for slightly reduced costs for the bankers in one small area of financial service exports?
Well, the Tory Leavers have not had a problem with the working class subsidising the bankers up to now (see QE, for example), so I am not sure why anything will change post-Brexit vote.
Of course lots of us have. Stop making it up.
I wasn't aware you are a Tory MP or minister supporting the Leave campaign.
You said Tory. Lots of righties on this site have consistently opposed Osborne and his policies of protect the bankers.
I'm very cautious - global, as diversified as possible, low-medium risk. But like most of us, if Brexit ends up being global financial Armageddon, there are few safe havens for the ordinary investor.
However, unless I've grossly misunderstood the IFA report, the downsides are based around opportunity costs, rather than 'every person in the UK reduced to eating cat food three times a week'.
Yes, that's pretty much my strategy. The problem is that the obvious ways of protecting yourself against Brexit (in the short term) - such as moving heavily into US Dollar or Swiss Franc denominated assets - are likely to be actively harmful in the event of a Remain result, and vice versa. That means they are bets rather than investment strategies. The best approach is, as you say, to maintain an internationally diversified portfolio, although in the event of Brexit it will probably be a choppy ride whatever happens.
Where I disagree with you is on the downside risks. I think you are perhaps confusing the long-term effects (caused by changes in the structure of our trade after we adjust to a different model without full access to the Single Market), with the short-term uncertainty effect.
I think these two articles are quite helpful, especially (for investment planning) the Neil Woodford one:
Thanks Richard, I appreciate the links and will read them with interest. Just FYI, I've been investing since the late eighties, so don't tend to make 'bets' - I'm just not savvy enough.
I'm sceptical about long term economic forecasts, though we have to work with something. The UK is around 4% of the global pie. I'm much more exercised by US/China/BRIC risks than I am about the UK per se, though we could always serve as the catalyst for something genuinely nasty.
Would still plead 'not guilty' to the charge of complacency; I worry about the short term impact of course.
The biggest risk is the calibre of our politicians. We're short on big beasts, and the past twenty years have favoured the managerial/tactical/media-management types. Wrong skill set in my view.
Well, it's a view, I suppose. Not a very sane one, though.
ROFL was it made in America ?
It was made in America, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, Iceland, the UK, and no doubt elsewhere as well. It was exacerbated in the UK by one Gordon Brown.
Mr. M, np. Never seen Braveheart, I think it'd just irritate me too much.
The Wallace snippet was from Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies [I think], which also includes the recently re-formed Montenegro. Post-WWI, it was betrayed by the British and French and allowed to be swallowed up by Serbia. Had the Czar still been in place he might have protected it, but there we are.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
I think the draconian measures announced by Osborne should LEAVE win is simply him making an early resignation speech - in fact I would expect him to resign his seat, since I can't imagine him wanting to sit on the backbenches. Plus he could probably quadruple or more his current earnings outside the HoC.
I am still bemused by the Brexiteers refusal to countenance the need for a budget. They announced a manifesto this morning, but no budget to fund it
We all know that everything changes on 24th June. All of a sudden, for example, EEA/EFTA is going to be a very favoured option, while some Leavers will remind us that the referendum was only advisory. Passporting for the City will become a price worth paying for free movement of people, and so on. I just wish it were possible to buy shares in the word "Betrayal".
Why should the working classes have to pay for slightly reduced costs for the bankers in one small area of financial service exports?
Well, the Tory Leavers have not had a problem with the working class subsidising the bankers up to now (see QE, for example), so I am not sure why anything will change post-Brexit vote.
Of course lots of us have. Stop making it up.
I wasn't aware you are a Tory MP or minister supporting the Leave campaign.
You said Tory. Lots of righties on this site have consistently opposed Osborne and his policies of protect the bankers.
I said Tory Leaver and I was referring to those running the Leave campaign; none of who ever took a stand against Osborne's policies or spoke out against them. It is true that some Tories on here have opposed him, others though certainly did not - but now claim to have been hoodwinked. Hmmm. If others could see it, why couldn't they?
Well, it's a view, I suppose. Not a very sane one, though.
ROFL was it made in America ?
It was made in America, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, Iceland, the UK, and no doubt elsewhere as well. It was exacerbated in the UK by one Gordon Brown.
Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
Mr. M, np. Never seen Braveheart, I think it'd just irritate me too much.
The Wallace snippet was from Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies [I think], which also includes the recently re-formed Montenegro. Post-WWI, it was betrayed by the British and French and allowed to be swallowed up by Serbia. Had the Czar still been in place he might have protected it, but there we are.
I have that book, and I must have missed it (I loved 'Europe' by the same author, was less taken with 'The Isles', but both worth reading if you haven't already, though possibly outside your preferred period).
William Wallace was known as William the Briton during his life. He was from the Kingdom of the Rock (a Brythonic [Welsh] kingdom). Despite being practically the only man Edward I captured who had never sworn an oath to obey the king, he was executed and most others were let off.
Of course, woad was more Pictish. So that was a thousand year error in a film reputedly full of them.
Thanks Mr Dancer, that is a most interesting factoid. While Braveheart is an enjoyable film, I find I do have to be slightly pissed to watch it, as Gibson has even less respect for historical facts than the average Hollywood director. I'm a big fan of Edward I, so it's doubly painful.
The script writer for Braveheart was Randall Wallace - no relation.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
The Leavers' antagonism towards Osborne puzzles me. It seems purely rooted in his opposition towards their pet project. The level of vitriol is unwarranted: the man only wants to maintain the status quo after all. Even if he wins, everything will remain the same. Gove, on the other hand, is actively seeking an outcome that might devastate livelihoods and leave thousands in penury and strife. Our world could be turned upside down because of him. Yet I still can't help liking Gove. Why is this?
Gove, on the other hand, is actively seeking an outcome that might devastate livelihoods and leave thousands in penury and strife. Our world could be turned upside down because of him. Yet I still can't help liking Gove. Why is this?
Because Gove believes in what he is saying. The only thing Osborne believes in is George Osborne.
The Leavers' antagonism towards Osborne puzzles me. It seems purely rooted in his opposition towards their pet project. The level of vitriol is unwarranted: the man only wants to maintain the status quo after all. Even if he wins, everything will remain the same. Gove, on the other hand, is actively seeking an outcome that might devastate livelihoods and leave thousands in penury and strife. Our world could be turned upside down because of him. Yet I still can't help liking Gove. Why is this?
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
That is indeed the mood. The problem is that Brexit is not going to help us deal with the big probes we have. The people about to take over the government are even more right wing than the current incumbents and have had their campaign financed by a lot of immensely wealthy people who will be looking for payback. What's more, there are also bridges to mend with the City and big business more broadly. Making the lives of ordinary working people a little more tolerable is not going to be high up on their agenda.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
That is indeed the mood. The problem is that Brexit is not going to help us deal with the big probes we have. The people about to take over the government are even more right wing than the current incumbents and have had their campaign financed by a lot of immensely wealthy people who will be looking for payback. What's more, there are also bridges to mend with the City and big business more broadly. Making the lives of ordinary working people a little more tolerable is not going to be high up on their agenda.
Looking round the piece Remain hasn't solved our big problems and that's the status quo,
Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
They're not credible
Osborne certainly is, given that he has been perhaps the most successful Finance Minister of any major developed economy since the crash.
That's er... debatable. Saying that I'm not sure who else has done too well.
Well, quite. It's a challenge I've been making for the last four years and all the critics of Osborne suddenly go quiet when asked to point to the no doubt many obviously superior other Finance Ministers.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
The mood is simple: I don't recognise my own country. We pay too much to Europe when locals can't get houses. I want my country back.
Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
They're not credible
Osborne certainly is, given that he has been perhaps the most successful Finance Minister of any major developed economy since the crash.
We have to give Osborne credit. Not all of it was under his watch, but we've managed to borrow over a trillion pounds since the crisis started, without the markets taking fright, inflation is low and stable, employment is high. There's much to be thankful for.
He shares Brown's love of complexity, and he's occasionally been too tactical for his own good. My opinion of him dropped sharply as of last night; prior to that, I just thought him too cautious on deficit reduction (winter is coming - there will be a recession soon, Brexit or no).
On journey home from work been thinking about my political journey over the years.
Started voting for the tories in the 80's.
Utterly fed up with them by the time Thatcher was outed.
Funnily enough I was a fan of EU then.
Either voted Lib Dem or sat out General Elections from 1992 to 2005.
Voted conservative 2010 and again in 2015.
But now.......
The outrageous lies and scare stories, the over-hyped renegotiation, basically telling me I am a little Englander who isn't patriotic because I want out of this non democratic monstrosity.
Tell you what Cameron, you can fuck off, I am done with you and your party until the likes of you and Osborne are toast.
Lets see if it is 20 years before I vote blue again.
Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
They're not credible
Osborne certainly is, given that he has been perhaps the most successful Finance Minister of any major developed economy since the crash.
Errr No.
So who would you say has done better?
Ken Clarke, but really it's a loaded question as there isn't much choice.
Ken Clarke was good, true, but I was really asking about other comparable economies since the crash - few of which started out with as bad a position as Osborne inherited.
% trust Martin Lewis - 46% Boris Johnson - 30% James Dyson - 28% Jeremy Corbyn - 27% Nigel Farage - 26% Gordon Brown - 24% Eddie Izzard - 23% John Major - 23% Michael Caine - 20% David Cameron - 19% Jeremy Clarkson - 15% Tony Blair - 12% Joey Essex - 3%
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
That is indeed the mood. The problem is that Brexit is not going to help us deal with the big probes we have. The people about to take over the government are even more right wing than the current incumbents and have had their campaign financed by a lot of immensely wealthy people who will be looking for payback. What's more, there are also bridges to mend with the City and big business more broadly. Making the lives of ordinary working people a little more tolerable is not going to be high up on their agenda.
Looking round the piece Remain hasn't solved our big problems and that's the status quo,
Why not try a different tack ?
Leaving the EU is not a different tack, it's a great leap into the complete unknown. I believe it will cause many more problems than it will solve. But I hope I am wrong, I really do. If I am, I will acknowledge it and in way of recompense will buy you a vat of Warwickshire cider with my betting winnings. How about that? ;-)
As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.
It's not every expert though, is it? Capital Economics, Europe Economics, Open Europe, Mervyn King, Cass Business School, CEBR, IEA
All have come out with very different scenarios/ views to NIESR, PWC, Oxford Economics and the various government organisations.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
That is indeed the mood. The problem is that Brexit is not going to help us deal with the big probes we have. The people about to take over the government are even more right wing than the current incumbents and have had their campaign financed by a lot of immensely wealthy people who will be looking for payback. What's more, there are also bridges to mend with the City and big business more broadly. Making the lives of ordinary working people a little more tolerable is not going to be high up on their agenda.
This could bring things to a head. I just cannot see how any PM who supported the Leave campaign could get away with any post-Brexit deal that did not involve an end to free movement. I suspect Boris would find his insouciant charm of little use as he faced the kind of public anger that would make Nick Clegg's kicking by a bunch of students look like a vicar's tea party.
The Leavers' antagonism towards Osborne puzzles me. It seems purely rooted in his opposition towards their pet project. The level of vitriol is unwarranted: the man only wants to maintain the status quo after all.'
Wrong, Osborne is prepared to bully and threaten pensioners with a cut in their living standards in the event of Brexit but leave the overseas aid give-aways untouched.
Mr. M, np. Never seen Braveheart, I think it'd just irritate me too much.
The Wallace snippet was from Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies [I think], which also includes the recently re-formed Montenegro. Post-WWI, it was betrayed by the British and French and allowed to be swallowed up by Serbia. Had the Czar still been in place he might have protected it, but there we are.
MD, You'd not hate it.
As you've unusually ventured into the 20th Century, and particularly mentioned WW1, can I recommend the BBC Series 'Fall of Eagles' to you.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
That is indeed the mood. The problem is that Brexit is not going to help us deal with the big probes we have. The people about to take over the government are even more right wing than the current incumbents and have had their campaign financed by a lot of immensely wealthy people who will be looking for payback. What's more, there are also bridges to mend with the City and big business more broadly. Making the lives of ordinary working people a little more tolerable is not going to be high up on their agenda.
Looking round the piece Remain hasn't solved our big problems and that's the status quo,
Why not try a different tack ?
Leaving the EU is not a different tack, it's a great leap into the complete unknown. I believe it will cause many more problems than it will solve. But I hope I am wrong, I really do. If I am, I will acknowledge it and in way of recompense will buy you a vat of Warwickshire cider with my betting winnings. How about that? ;-)
Staying *in* the EU is a leap into the complete unkown, isn't it?
All a matter of opinion.
You won't need the hope of being proven wrong though: Remain will win.
As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.
It's not every expert though, is it? Capital Economics, Europe Economics, Open Europe, Mervyn King, Cass Business School, CEBR, IEA
All have come out with very different scenarios/ views to NIESR, PWC, Oxford Economics and the various government organisations.
Pretty much everyone agrees on the short-term effects, although the magnitude is very hard to estimate. On the long-term, opinions vary more, but that's partly because of the unknown policy choices. Patrick Minford, for example, has based his forecast on some heroic political assumptions about the unilateral dismantling of tariffs and dumping of regulations in employment and equality legislation.
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
As I've said before, it is staggering how confident Leavers here are that every expert is wrong. No doubt if it turns out that the experts were right, they will issue a fullsome apology.
It's not every expert though, is it? Capital Economics, Europe Economics, Open Europe, Mervyn King, Cass Business School, CEBR, IEA
All have come out with very different scenarios/ views to NIESR, PWC, Oxford Economics and the various government organisations.
Pretty much everyone agrees on the short-term effects, although the magnitude is very hard to estimate. On the long-term, opinions vary more, but that's partly because of the unknown policy choices. Patrick Minford, for example, has based his forecast on some heroic political assumptions about the unilateral dismantling of tariffs and dumping of regulations in employment and equality legislation.
Even the government's own ludicrous scenario based on absurdly negative assumptions (not a single new trade deal agreed) sees us growing not shrinking.
'But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.'
Spot on.
Joe Public wants to get a GP appointment when they are ill,not 3 weeks later.
Joe Public wants their kid to get into their local school, preferably one that's not overcrowded.
Joe Public wants to have affordable housing.
Joe public wants to compete on a level playing field.
The most tragic aspect of all this is that, if the Leavers had actually done their homework over the past four years, we might have been going into the referendum with a coherent Brexit plan, and thus avoided much of the economic risk. It's about three years too late now, though.
But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.
That is indeed the mood. The problem is that Brexit is not going to help us deal with the big probes we have. The people about to take over the government are even more right wing than the current incumbents and have had their campaign financed by a lot of immensely wealthy people who will be looking for payback. What's more, there are also bridges to mend with the City and big business more broadly. Making the lives of ordinary working people a little more tolerable is not going to be high up on their agenda.
This could bring things to a head. I just cannot see how any PM who supported the Leave campaign could get away with any post-Brexit deal that did not involve an end to free movement. I suspect Boris would find his insouciant charm of little use as he faced the kind of public anger that would make Nick Clegg's kicking by a bunch of students look like a vicar's tea party.
Except post Brexit there will quite possibly be a significant majority in the country in favour of freedom of movement being retained. You won't get a General Election majority based on representing the concerns of a subset of Leave voters and ignoring everyone else.
Let's not forget one issue which Remain have completely failed to gain any traction on (except possibly among ex-Pats who will be voting in unprecedented numbers if word from within electoral service departments is correct) - the fact that restricting freedom of movement is not a one way street. If you bring in measures to restrict freedom of movement to the country, then it is inevitable that it will become more difficult to travel abroad as well.
% trust Martin Lewis - 46% Boris Johnson - 30% James Dyson - 28% Jeremy Corbyn - 27% Nigel Farage - 26% Gordon Brown - 24% Eddie Izzard - 23% John Major - 23% Michael Caine - 20% David Cameron - 19% Jeremy Clarkson - 15% Tony Blair - 12% Joey Essex - 3%
'But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.'
Spot on.
Joe Public wants to get a GP appointment when they are ill,not 3 weeks later.
Joe Public wants their kid to get into their local school, preferably one that's not overcrowded.
Joe Public wants to have affordable housing.
Joe public wants to compete on a level playing field.
'But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.'
Spot on.
Joe Public wants to get a GP appointment when they are ill,not 3 weeks later.
Joe Public wants their kid to get into their local school, preferably one that's not overcrowded.
Joe Public wants to have affordable housing.
Joe public wants to compete on a level playing field.
Joe Public wants a lot more public spending. Joe Public is right. But Joe Public is not going to get that from Boris, Priti and co.
The Leavers' antagonism towards Osborne puzzles me. It seems purely rooted in his opposition towards their pet project. The level of vitriol is unwarranted: the man only wants to maintain the status quo after all.'
Wrong, Osborne is prepared to bully and threaten pensioners with a cut in their living standards in the event of Brexit but leave the overseas aid give-aways untouched.
Win or lose he's toast.
Indeed. He's certainly not going to be our leader.
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
You have failed to convince me I'm sorry to say, but thanks for the snippet about the source of the script - I'm learning a lot today!
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.
It's possible that Osborne's budget stuff today was quite simply a desperate attempt to get the campaign away from Immigation, immigration, immigration. People don't have to believe the extent of the warnings, but at least they will be thinking about something other than immigration. And presumably the idea is to get people thinking "that's scaremongering, it won't be anywhere near that bad", but as long as they still think it will be a little bit bad then that is probably enough.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.
After consultation with the rest of the team, we're prepared to concede the lost battles of Stirling Bridge, Falkirk and Bannockburn did actually occur. The rest is on shaky ground .
Comments
I see we're up to 65 MPs have now signed the Osborne letter.
If we Brexit, all bets are off
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6w
made in warwickshire
and the owner's a Remainer.
They voted Conservative because Milibands lot were awful and had no chance of a majority which meant that Salmond and Sturgeon would get to interfere.
Also because Tory Majority = Referedum on EU next week.
But Brexit ? All bets off !
You don't realise how stupid that looks.
I don't remember a Brexit caveat in the manifesto.
You're frit because your top two are on the way out but you will be spinning as long as they circle the plughole
William Wallace was known as William the Briton during his life. He was from the Kingdom of the Rock (a Brythonic [Welsh] kingdom). Despite being practically the only man Edward I captured who had never sworn an oath to obey the king, he was executed and most others were let off.
Of course, woad was more Pictish. So that was a thousand year error in a film reputedly full of them.
Where I disagree with you is on the downside risks. I think you are perhaps confusing the long-term effects (caused by changes in the structure of our trade after we adjust to a different model without full access to the Single Market), with the short-term uncertainty effect.
I think these two articles are quite helpful, especially (for investment planning) the Neil Woodford one:
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/neil-woodford-brexit-revisited
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/6/15/brexit-what-is-in-store-for-the-economy
http://order-order.com/2016/06/15/remainers-disembark-geldofs-boat-in-disgust/
Champagne-quaffing London millionnaires flicking the V at Britain's fishermen...
"Belgium is a beautiful city..."
Labour have of course gone from very bad to far far worse, and it seems that Osborne wishes to take the Tories to just a shade better than the Labour position.
In this climate Farage looks sensible. (Endless interviews on his specialist subject help)
My regard and consideration for the people of Scotland become entirely secondary if stupidity is taking hold in England.
bring on WW4
"You broke it, you own it"
Well, it's a view, I suppose. Not a very sane one, though.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/743102010225004545
I'm sceptical about long term economic forecasts, though we have to work with something. The UK is around 4% of the global pie. I'm much more exercised by US/China/BRIC risks than I am about the UK per se, though we could always serve as the catalyst for something genuinely nasty.
Would still plead 'not guilty' to the charge of complacency; I worry about the short term impact of course.
The biggest risk is the calibre of our politicians. We're short on big beasts, and the past twenty years have favoured the managerial/tactical/media-management types. Wrong skill set in my view.
The Wallace snippet was from Vanished Kingdoms by Norman Davies [I think], which also includes the recently re-formed Montenegro. Post-WWI, it was betrayed by the British and French and allowed to be swallowed up by Serbia. Had the Czar still been in place he might have protected it, but there we are.
They're not credible
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/15/eu-referendum-remain-uses-project-fear-more-in-tweets-than-leave/
Anyway, I'm not getting any work done so I should be off.
It has nothing to do with Leave\Remain.
Remain Labourites hate him too.
Why not try a different tack ?
I don't recognise my own country.
We pay too much to Europe when locals can't get houses.
I want my country back.
He shares Brown's love of complexity, and he's occasionally been too tactical for his own good. My opinion of him dropped sharply as of last night; prior to that, I just thought him too cautious on deficit reduction (winter is coming - there will be a recession soon, Brexit or no).
Started voting for the tories in the 80's.
Utterly fed up with them by the time Thatcher was outed.
Funnily enough I was a fan of EU then.
Either voted Lib Dem or sat out General Elections from 1992 to 2005.
Voted conservative 2010 and again in 2015.
But now.......
The outrageous lies and scare stories, the over-hyped renegotiation, basically telling me I am a little Englander who isn't patriotic because I want out of this non democratic monstrosity.
Tell you what Cameron, you can fuck off, I am done with you and your party until the likes of you and Osborne are toast.
Lets see if it is 20 years before I vote blue again.
% trust
Martin Lewis - 46%
Boris Johnson - 30%
James Dyson - 28%
Jeremy Corbyn - 27%
Nigel Farage - 26%
Gordon Brown - 24%
Eddie Izzard - 23%
John Major - 23%
Michael Caine - 20%
David Cameron - 19%
Jeremy Clarkson - 15%
Tony Blair - 12%
Joey Essex - 3%
(YouGov)
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x4iynd1mn7/TodayResults_160614_EUReferendum_W.pdf
All have come out with very different scenarios/ views to NIESR, PWC, Oxford Economics and the various government organisations.
The Leavers' antagonism towards Osborne puzzles me. It seems purely rooted in his opposition towards their pet project. The level of vitriol is unwarranted: the man only wants to maintain the status quo after all.'
Wrong, Osborne is prepared to bully and threaten pensioners with a cut in their living standards in the event of Brexit but leave the overseas aid give-aways untouched.
Win or lose he's toast.
As you've unusually ventured into the 20th Century, and particularly mentioned WW1, can I recommend the BBC Series 'Fall of Eagles' to you.
All a matter of opinion.
You won't need the hope of being proven wrong though: Remain will win.
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
'But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.'
Spot on.
Joe Public wants to get a GP appointment when they are ill,not 3 weeks later.
Joe Public wants their kid to get into their local school, preferably one that's not overcrowded.
Joe Public wants to have affordable housing.
Joe public wants to compete on a level playing field.
The Tories are eating themselves.
Let's not forget one issue which Remain have completely failed to gain any traction on (except possibly among ex-Pats who will be voting in unprecedented numbers if word from within electoral service departments is correct) - the fact that restricting freedom of movement is not a one way street. If you bring in measures to restrict freedom of movement to the country, then it is inevitable that it will become more difficult to travel abroad as well.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".
But that doesn't mean it is a mistake by Remain.
It is simply about creating headlines.
Just like Leave's £350m.