On the day that I saw [Matthew] Elliott, the papers were full of allegations – later convincingly denied – that Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, has been denying key papers to senior ministers who support Brexit. Elliott was in no doubt: “If this turns into a referendum between the establishment and the people, we will win. By miles.”
Whatever happens, win or lose, we can now conclude that REMAIN has fought one of the most incompetent, blundering, imbecilic campaigns in all of British political history.
Going into this vote they had everything on their side, from the BBC to the BoE, the IMF to the IFS, the unions and the guardianista and the luvvies and big business and Richard bloody Branson and Barack bloody Obama. And they started with 25 point phone poll leads.
It was only a month ago that dribbling twits like Nabavi and Meeks were insisting that REMAIN was playing a brilliant game, and Mike SMITHSON laughed at LEAVE any chance he could.
What happened, guys? What happened to your campaign? How did it come to this? - LOSING, with a week to go.
Historians will study this debacle for decades, whoever wins.
Its he tory GE campaign 2010 (Osborne led) vs 2015 (Crosby led)...
Has Crosby disowned this campaign? I would backpedal away from this as fast as my little legs would go if I were him....
I am at a bit of a loss and hope the PB brains trust can help. I am told that in the event of a leave vote there will suddenly open up a £30bn black hole in the nation's accounts. However, nobody has said why.
I have a car that was made in Japan, I have a phone that comes from a Korean company. the wine at lunch came from New Zealand, I type on a keyboard that was made in China onto a computer that was assembled in the UK from parts that were manufactured in the Far East. Almost nothing in my life has anything to do with the EU, but I am asked to believe that if we vote to leave the world will some how change for the worse, overnight needing an emergency budget, a rise in income tax and the slashing of health, education and defence budgets.
I am as always open to reasoned arguments, so please tell me where this mighty black hole is going to come from. What is this economic shock that will hit the UK if its electors vote the way that the great and the good don't like?
It is an extrapolation from rigged economic forecasting. If GDP is x less then the deficit will by y higher in z years. Cargo cult stuff.
I don't think Leave have run a good campaign, but Remain have certainly run a bad one. I'd say the mistakes have been:-
1. Overselling a crappy deal at the end of February. That insulted peoples' intelligence.
2. One threat after another. At least, it seems to people as if they're being threatened and blackmailed to vote Remain.
3. The Obama visit. What could have been a positive for Remain (a US President who's popular here endorsing Remain) turned into a negative (the "back of the queue") comment.
4. A reliance on purely materialistic arguments in favour of the EU (GDP will be x% higher/lower) while failing to address emotional/idealistic arguments around self-government and sovereignty.
5. Inability to neutralise immigration as an issue.
6. Nothing to sell. Not one positive idea in favour of the EU has come out of this campaign. It has all been predicated on "yes, we know it's shit, but...."
The EPO does not wave through US patents. That's just a matter of fact. There is, for example, a different standard of patentability in Europe to the US.
If you lose a case you will not have lost a case to a dodgy patent. You will have lost to one that has first been examined by the EPO and then, once again, during the court proceedings. I am afraid that if you are found to have infringed there is a price to pay. However, that has nothing to do with patent trolls.
Patent trolls make their money by asserting low quality patents and asking for licensing fees that are below the amount it would take to fight a case. They essentially exploit the cost of litigating in the US and the system's many failings in terms of pleading requirements, forum selection and so on. They count on people figuring that it's easier to settle than it is to go to court. Even if a troll loses in court (and very few actually go that far), they do not have to bear any of the costs of the other side. So, a defendant is always looking at paying out hundreds of thousands of dollars whatever happens. If the offer to settle is tens of thousands, then that is an option that may very reluctantly take. In any case, there has been recent legislation and a number of decisons that have substantially reduced the incentives to be a troll in the US.
None of the things that make trolling an option in the US apply in Europe.
Germany's patent system basically mirrors the US in terms of quality of patents it lets through - especially when it comes to technology. The UPC is Germany forcing it's patent standards onto the rest of Europe.
Good heavens Leave as short as 11/8 in places, extraordinary since a week or so ago Meeks did a header saying Remain was value at 1/4.
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
BMG have tweeted this morning saying poll results attributed to them are in fact a hoax and untrue. The poll showed Leave in front by 45% vs 41% Remain.
Awkward if BMG real results later today are also 45% LEAVE v 41% REMAIN.
"Since 1975 the EU has mutated in exactly the way we then feared and now resembles nothing so much as the Habsburg Empire in its dying days. A bloated bureaucracy that has outgrown all usefulness. A parliament that represents many nations, but with no democratic legitimacy. Countries on its periphery pitched into poverty, or agitating for secession. The EU’s hunger for power has been matched only by its incompetence. The European Union is making the people of our continent poorer, and less free."
The EPO does not wave through US patents. That's just a matter of fact. There is, for example, a different standard of patentability in Europe to the US.
If you lose a case you will not have lost a case to a dodgy patent. You will have lost to one that has first been examined by the EPO and then, once again, during the court proceedings. I am afraid that if you are found to have infringed there is a price to pay. However, that has nothing to do with patent trolls.
Patent trolls make their money by asserting low quality patents and asking for licensing fees that are below the amount it would take to fight a case. They essentially exploit the cost of litigating in the US and the system's many failings in terms of pleading requirements, forum selection and so on. They count on people figuring that it's easier to settle than it is to go to court. Even if a troll loses in court (and very few actually go that far), they do not have to bear any of the costs of the other side. So, a defendant is always looking at paying out hundreds of thousands of dollars whatever happens. If the offer to settle is tens of thousands, then that is an option that may very reluctantly take. In any case, there has been recent legislation and a number of decisons that have substantially reduced the incentives to be a troll in the US.
None of the things that make trolling an option in the US apply in Europe.
Germany's patent system basically mirrors the US in terms of quality of patents it lets through - especially when it comes to technology. The UPC is Germany forcing it's patent standards onto the rest of Europe.
No, it's not. The EPO is not a German institution. In fact, it is not even an EU institution. It is generally regarded to issue the highest quality patent in the world. The German litigation system is entirely different to the US one. It is civil law, for start; and about a tenth of the price to use.
I think his apprentices have surpassed him in Osbo hatred. It'd be great if he came back to take the plaudits from all those who've come round to his way of thinking.
The EPO does not wave through US patents. That's just a matter of fact. There is, for example, a different standard of patentability in Europe to the US.
If you lose a case you will not have lost a case to a dodgy patent. You will have lost to one that has first been examined by the EPO and then, once again, during the court proceedings. I am afraid that if you are found to have infringed there is a price to pay. However, that has nothing to do with patent trolls.
Patent trolls make their money by asserting low quality patents and asking for licensing fees that are below the amount it would take to fight a case. They essentially exploit the cost of litigating in the US and the system's many failings in terms of pleading requirements, forum selection and so on. They count on people figuring that it's easier to settle than it is to go to court. Even if a troll loses in court (and very few actually go that far), they do not have to bear any of the costs of the other side. So, a defendant is always looking at paying out hundreds of thousands of dollars whatever happens. If the offer to settle is tens of thousands, then that is an option that may very reluctantly take. In any case, there has been recent legislation and a number of decisons that have substantially reduced the incentives to be a troll in the US.
None of the things that make trolling an option in the US apply in Europe.
The whole point is that the regime will change after the EU UPC is brought in. Not how the rules apply today.
The basics will stay exactly the same. It will still be cheaper than the US. The patents will still be of much higher quality. Losers will still pay. In fact, getting patent protection across Europe and then enforcing your patent rights will become a whole lot cheaper and easier. However, if we vote to leave the EU it won't happen. So you don't need to worry about it.
I don't want to sound like a dick, but reading that brought tears to my eyes.
"A vote to leave would represent an extraordinary vote of confidence in the project of the United Kingdom and the principle of national self-determination. It would also show reform-minded Europeans that theirs is not a lost cause. And that we stand willing to help forge a Europe based on freedom, co-operation and respect for sovereignty."
That's precisely why I'm voting Leave. And I'm proud to do so.
Good heavens Leave as short as 11/8 in places, extraordinary since a week or so ago Meeks did a header saying Remain was value at 1/4.
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
Indeed. If LEAVE wins this is one reason they will win. They're just much better at tapping into basic raw emotion. Thinking visually not verbally. Show don't tell. Look at the photo. Whoever had the idea for the flotilla, with all its clever subliminal messages - Dunkirk to Trafalgar - should get a medal.
Instead of getting rich powerful people to lecture us or menace us, REMAIN should have been thinking up clever stunts and emotional ads, in the same way. I know the EU is a harder sell but it's not an impossible sell. Yet they did nothing, and kept on with Project Fear.
Selling the EU is rather like getting an actuary in to lecture schoolboys on the job and its prospects.
I don't think Leave have run a good campaign, but Remain have certainly run a bad one. I'd say the mistakes have been:-
1. Overselling a crappy deal at the end of February. That insulted peoples' intelligence.
2. One threat after another. At least, it seems to people as if they're being threatened and blackmailed to vote Remain.
3. The Obama visit. What could have been a positive for Remain (a US President who's popular here endorsing Remain) turned into a negative (the "back of the queue") comment.
4. A reliance on purely materialistic arguments in favour of the EU (GDP will be x% higher/lower) while failing to address emotional/idealistic arguments around self-government and sovereignty.
5. Inability to neutralise immigration as an issue.
Immigration, immigration, immigration.
Remain seemed to be strolling it until that 330,000 figure came out. That, and the TV coverage it received, was the game changer. For me, immigration was always going to be Leave's winning hand. That's why I bet accordingly. I could not see how Remain could counter it.
Good heavens Leave as short as 11/8 in places, extraordinary since a week or so ago Meeks did a header saying Remain was value at 1/4.
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
Indeed. If LEAVE wins this is one reason they will win. They're just much better at tapping into basic raw emotion. Thinking visually not verbally. Show don't tell. Look at the photo. Whoever had the idea for the flotilla, with all its clever subliminal messages - Dunkirk to Trafalgar - should get a medal.
Instead of getting rich powerful people to lecture us or menace us, REMAIN should have been thinking up clever stunts and emotional ads, in the same way. I know the EU is a harder sell but it's not an impossible sell. Yet they did nothing, and kept on with Project Fear.
But this is just it, the clumsiness and spontaneity of the Leave campaign has been its biggest strength, ordinary people versus the establishment and it's toadies. That little fishing boat spraying the cruiser was unplanned, real, visceral, we love it because it sums up how we all feel, we want to buy that fisherman a pint while Nabavi hectors people about their investments.
We're not there yet but we can smell victory in all its beauty and glory, we're going to sieze it, its an unstoppable force.
I don't think Leave have run a good campaign, but Remain have certainly run a bad one. I'd say the mistakes have been:-
1. Overselling a crappy deal at the end of February. That insulted peoples' intelligence.
2. One threat after another. At least, it seems to people as if they're being threatened and blackmailed to vote Remain.
3. The Obama visit. What could have been a positive for Remain (a US President who's popular here endorsing Remain) turned into a negative (the "back of the queue") comment.
4. A reliance on purely materialistic arguments in favour of the EU (GDP will be x% higher/lower) while failing to address emotional/idealistic arguments around self-government and sovereignty.
5. Inability to neutralise immigration as an issue.
2, 3, and 4 absolutely. 'Scare early, scare often' hasn't worked. BSE have taken the indyref lessons to an extreme, forgetting that it wasn't only project fear that won it for the union. Obama was a massive failure, he should have been giving a speech this week, saying he respected the choice we make either way, but that he personally would vote remain and explaining how he believes the EU helps the UK (not talking about US trade deals). There should also have been a bit more pro-european lib-demmy talk, a bit of idealism mixed in with the economic arguments is better than only economics or only idealistic stuff. People vote logically and based on the pound in their pocket, but we aren't robots after all!
on 1, I don't think the deal has played any part in the decision making process for the vast majority of people, it's a non-entity, i can't even remember the talking points from it.
on 5, I can't see what else Remain can do, EU immigration can't be controlled in the EU, so their two choices are to cut non-eu immigration to reduce the perceived surplus of immigrants, or try and change the subject (the option they chose)
Good heavens Leave as short as 11/8 in places, extraordinary since a week or so ago Meeks did a header saying Remain was value at 1/4.
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
Indeed. If LEAVE wins this is one reason they will win. They're just much better at tapping into basic raw emotion. Thinking visually not verbally. Show don't tell. Look at the photo. Whoever had the idea for the flotilla, with all its clever subliminal messages - Dunkirk to Trafalgar - should get a medal.
Instead of getting rich powerful people to lecture us or menace us, REMAIN should have been thinking up clever stunts and emotional ads, in the same way. I know the EU is a harder sell but it's not an impossible sell. Yet they did nothing, and kept on with Project Fear.
Selling the EU is rather like getting an actuary in to lecture schoolboys on the job and its prospects.
Good heavens Leave as short as 11/8 in places, extraordinary since a week or so ago Meeks did a header saying Remain was value at 1/4.
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
Indeed. If LEAVE wins this is one reason they will win. They're just much better at tapping into basic raw emotion. Thinking visually not verbally. Show don't tell. Look at the photo. Whoever had the idea for the flotilla, with all its clever subliminal messages - Dunkirk to Trafalgar - should get a medal.
Instead of getting rich powerful people to lecture us or menace us, REMAIN should have been thinking up clever stunts and emotional ads, in the same way. I know the EU is a harder sell but it's not an impossible sell. Yet they did nothing, and kept on with Project Fear.
Its not the only one happening. On Tuesday boats from Grimsby, Hull, Goole and South Ferriby will be doing the same along the Humber.
Do you think we will have the Geldof photo on any of the front pages tomorrow ?
Yes. It is one of the most revolting images of the referendum. A party boat full of drunk metropolitan elites laughing and swearing at hard working fishermen.
We were always being told that Trump would moderate his pitch when the primaries ended, but it looks like he's still continuing with the appeal to conspiracy loons.
I don't think Leave have run a good campaign, but Remain have certainly run a bad one. I'd say the mistakes have been:-
1. Overselling a crappy deal at the end of February. That insulted peoples' intelligence.
2. One threat after another. At least, it seems to people as if they're being threatened and blackmailed to vote Remain.
3. The Obama visit. What could have been a positive for Remain (a US President who's popular here endorsing Remain) turned into a negative (the "back of the queue") comment.
4. A reliance on purely materialistic arguments in favour of the EU (GDP will be x% higher/lower) while failing to address emotional/idealistic arguments around self-government and sovereignty.
5. Inability to neutralise immigration as an issue.
Immigration, immigration, immigration.
Remain seemed to be strolling it until that 330,000 figure came out. That, and the TV coverage it received, was the game changer. For me, immigration was always going to be Leave's winning hand. That's why I bet accordingly. I could not see how Remain could counter it.
I agree with that. It's a false prospectus but an effective one. Immigration is always in the top three or four concerns of voters. Leave promise to bring it down through "control". Remain can't counter the argument, even though it is a false promise.
Labour Leave will have some interesting posters coming out soon.
Planned before Ossie's tantrum though its almost as if they saw it coming...
Labour Leave have had by FAR the best campaign so far.
Agreed. From Gisela Stuart down they have, very quietly, very professionally, done a superb job. A job that Labour wasnt expecting - at an early debate in Hull (and the last time he showed up.. A Johnson said he was unaware that they existed. I think he is now
Brexiteers are 'tapping into raw emotions'. Really? Didn't we used to call it pandering to racism?
It feels bloody brilliant to be a Brexiteer.
Even the name. Swashbuckling into the future, wrapped in a union flag, a mixture of Last Night of the Proms, Trooping the Colour, the Red Arrows, Stonehenge, Grantchester church tower, and Cream Teas.
In the face of that, if you think anyone can convince people of the marginal benefits of this EU directive or how that EU directive has simplified and standardised the widget industry...
Just one poll. And Bloomberg is the most pro-Dem. They had the lead at 18 last time, when everyone else was 6 or 7...
Rod can I say that at these times, and I suspect often in the coming days, we really do need your calm, measured focus on the election campaign three and a half thousand miles away.
Good heavens Leave as short as 11/8 in places, extraordinary since a week or so ago Meeks did a header saying Remain was value at 1/4.
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
Indeed. If LEAVE wins this is one reason they will win. They're just much better at tapping into basic raw emotion. Thinking visually not verbally. Show don't tell. Look at the photo. Whoever had the idea for the flotilla, with all its clever subliminal messages - Dunkirk to Trafalgar - should get a medal.
Instead of getting rich powerful people to lecture us or menace us, REMAIN should have been thinking up clever stunts and emotional ads, in the same way. I know the EU is a harder sell but it's not an impossible sell. Yet they did nothing, and kept on with Project Fear.
Selling the EU is rather like getting an actuary in to lecture schoolboys on the job and its prospects.
Old joke warning.
Being an actuary is for people who find accounting too exciting.
Brexiteers are 'tapping into raw emotions'. Really? Didn't we used to call it pandering to racism?
It feels bloody brilliant to be a Brexiteer.
Even the name. Swashbuckling into the future, wrapped in a union flag, a mixture of Last Night of the Proms, Trooping the Colour, the Red Arrows, Stonehenge, Grantchester church tower, and Cream Teas.
Labour Leave will have some interesting posters coming out soon.
Planned before Ossie's tantrum though its almost as if they saw it coming...
Labour Leave have had by FAR the best campaign so far.
Agreed. From Gisela Stuart down they have, very quietly, very professionally, done a superb job. A job that Labour wasnt expecting - at an early debate in Hull (and the last time he showed up.. A Johnson said he was unaware that they existed. I think he is now
I'm quite hopeful that Labour Leave may have a future.
If Leave does win this, could that destroy the credibility of Project Fear (from an economics perspective) as an argument? If so, that could be the silver lining for Labour, people won't buy tory attacks that Corbyn is a rabid marxist who would bankrupt the country and tax you 1000% etc.
Unless Corbyn decides to put that in his manifesto of course.
I don't think Leave have run a good campaign, but Remain have certainly run a bad one. I'd say the mistakes have been:-
1. Overselling a crappy deal at the end of February. That insulted peoples' intelligence.
2. One threat after another. At least, it seems to people as if they're being threatened and blackmailed to vote Remain.
3. The Obama visit. What could have been a positive for Remain (a US President who's popular here endorsing Remain) turned into a negative (the "back of the queue") comment.
4. A reliance on purely materialistic arguments in favour of the EU (GDP will be x% higher/lower) while failing to address emotional/idealistic arguments around self-government and sovereignty.
5. Inability to neutralise immigration as an issue.
Immigration, immigration, immigration.
Remain seemed to be strolling it until that 330,000 figure came out. That, and the TV coverage it received, was the game changer. For me, immigration was always going to be Leave's winning hand. That's why I bet accordingly. I could not see how Remain could counter it.
I agree with that. It's a false prospectus but an effective one. Immigration is always in the top three or four concerns of voters. Leave promise to bring it down through "control". Remain can't counter the argument, even though it is a false promise.
Yep, that's why we are going to hear so much of betrayal after 23rd June. I hope it doesn't turn too nasty.
Good heavens Leave as short as 11/8 in places, extraordinary since a week or so ago Meeks did a header saying Remain was value at 1/4.
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
Indeed. If LEAVE wins this is one reason they will win. They're just much better at tapping into basic raw emotion. Thinking visually not verbally. Show don't tell. Look at the photo. Whoever had the idea for the flotilla, with all its clever subliminal messages - Dunkirk to Trafalgar - should get a medal.
Instead of getting rich powerful people to lecture us or menace us, REMAIN should have been thinking up clever stunts and emotional ads, in the same way. I know the EU is a harder sell but it's not an impossible sell. Yet they did nothing, and kept on with Project Fear.
Selling the EU is rather like getting an actuary in to lecture schoolboys on the job and its prospects.
Old joke warning.
Being an actuary is for people who find accounting too exciting.
Whatever happens, win or lose, we can now conclude that REMAIN has fought one of the most incompetent, blundering, imbecilic campaigns in all of British political history.
What happened, guys?
Cameron and Osborne are a complete and utter waste of space.
I don't think Leave have run a good campaign, but Remain have certainly run a bad one. I'd say the mistakes have been:-
1. Overselling a crappy deal at the end of February. That insulted peoples' intelligence.
2. One threat after another. At least, it seems to people as if they're being threatened and blackmailed to vote Remain.
3. The Obama visit. What could have been a positive for Remain (a US President who's popular here endorsing Remain) turned into a negative (the "back of the queue") comment.
4. A reliance on purely materialistic arguments in favour of the EU (GDP will be x% higher/lower) while failing to address emotional/idealistic arguments around self-government and sovereignty.
5. Inability to neutralise immigration as an issue.
Immigration, immigration, immigration.
Remain seemed to be strolling it until that 330,000 figure came out. That, and the TV coverage it received, was the game changer. For me, immigration was always going to be Leave's winning hand. That's why I bet accordingly. I could not see how Remain could counter it.
The fact the report landed at virtually the same time as purdah kicking in was fortuitous and perhaps showed a lack of foresight on the part of Remain.
I also think that Leave have acquitted themselves well in the majority of the TV debates and last Thursday was dreadful for Remain with Sturgeon, Izzard, Eagle and Rudd all having an attack of the crazies.
Even without such a change, the turbulence, at best, in the Conservative Party will give Labour (and UKIP) much better hopes than they would have enjoyed had Cameron/Osborne not been so inept.
If Leave does win this, could that destroy the credibility of Project Fear (from an economics perspective) as an argument? If so, that could be the silver lining for Labour, people won't buy tory attacks that Corbyn is a rabid marxist who would bankrupt the country and tax you 1000% etc.
Unless Corbyn decides to put that in his manifesto of course.
If Leave win it will mean the public have reached the same point that they reached in 1997 and 2010; the feeling of 'we can't go on like this, enough's enough'.
Even the name. Swashbuckling into the future, wrapped in a union flag, a mixture of Last Night of the Proms, Trooping the Colour, the Red Arrows, Stonehenge, Grantchester church tower, and Cream Teas.
Into the what? I'll grant you Stonehenge, and you can even have the Round Table. But other than that, it's Glastonbury Tor, corn dollies, the New Forest, vegetarian shepherd's pie, Branston pickle, yeast extract, and Cromwell, and John Ball, and Gerrard Winstanley, and Abiezer Coppe, and Ban the Bomb, and William Blake...and the greatest English poem since Blake.
"Where were you at the time of the crime?/Down by the Cenotaph, drinking slime"
I hope you're happy. Soon you'll be able to measure your inside leg in groats!
How about having the next referendum on NATO membership? Bring it on!
If Leave does win this, could that destroy the credibility of Project Fear (from an economics perspective) as an argument? If so, that could be the silver lining for Labour, people won't buy tory attacks that Corbyn is a rabid marxist who would bankrupt the country and tax you 1000% etc.
Unless Corbyn decides to put that in his manifesto of course.
If Leave win it will mean the public have reached the same point that they reached in 1997 and 2010; the feeling of 'we can't go on like this, enough's enough'.
If Leave wins, whatever rises up out of the swamp - EAA, FTA or EnglandAndWales - will be the new normal. We'll get on with our lives.
If Leave does win this, could that destroy the credibility of Project Fear (from an economics perspective) as an argument? If so, that could be the silver lining for Labour, people won't buy tory attacks that Corbyn is a rabid marxist who would bankrupt the country and tax you 1000% etc.
Unless Corbyn decides to put that in his manifesto of course.
If Leave win it will mean the public have reached the same point that they reached in 1997 and 2010; the feeling of 'we can't go on like this, enough's enough'.
If Leave wins, whatever rises up out of the swamp - EAA, FTA or EnglandAndWales - will be the new normal. We'll get on with our lives.
Yes, I agree. People and business will adapt. It won't happen overnight, but they will.
I don't think Leave have run a good campaign, but Remain have certainly run a bad one. I'd say the mistakes have been:-
1. Overselling a crappy deal at the end of February. That insulted peoples' intelligence.
2. One threat after another. At least, it seems to people as if they're being threatened and blackmailed to vote Remain.
3. The Obama visit. What could have been a positive for Remain (a US President who's popular here endorsing Remain) turned into a negative (the "back of the queue") comment.
4. A reliance on purely materialistic arguments in favour of the EU (GDP will be x% higher/lower) while failing to address emotional/idealistic arguments around self-government and sovereignty.
5. Inability to neutralise immigration as an issue.
Immigration, immigration, immigration.
Remain seemed to be strolling it until that 330,000 figure came out. That, and the TV coverage it received, was the game changer. For me, immigration was always going to be Leave's winning hand. That's why I bet accordingly. I could not see how Remain could counter it.
I agree with that. It's a false prospectus but an effective one. Immigration is always in the top three or four concerns of voters. Leave promise to bring it down through "control". Remain can't counter the argument, even though it is a false promise.
Yep, that's why we are going to hear so much of betrayal after 23rd June. I hope it doesn't turn too nasty.
I would not like to be Boris or Michael Giove. As for Farage, he's the head of a cult. Cults don't do regicide.
I was willing to vote Remain last year. I even posted on FB in a smug manner to some uniformed friends about the virtues of working together with our neighbours.
I've never, ever been convinced of the EU. I've always reflexively disliked the anti-democratic nature of it; it's unspoken desire to want to control the lives of the masses and make it more difficult for us as individuals to overthrow the ruling classes.
But I was willing to park all that high-minded sovereignty stuff, truly believing that Cameron would kick some arse during the negotiations and get the EU - especially with France in the economic doldrums - to run in a more German/British manner and less of a French and southern Mediterranean one. I thought he could use some muscle to get us Brits the best of both worlds.
Somewhere along the way the Remain camp lost my trust and then lost my vote. Cameron's negotiation was more spin than substance and then Michael Gove's inspiring article at the beginning of the campaign hooked me in. Since then - and this isn't through confirmation bias, I've read as much contrasting opinion as I can - I've become even more convinced of Brexit. I can barely believe it, and I'm even embarrassed to tell some of my friends about it in case I offend them.
Forget Boris, and IDS and the diehards in UKIP like Farage. I've been convinced by the gentler, more inspiring, more hope-led sorts like Gisela Stuart.
I might regret it but the whole establishment has had a prolonged campaign to tell me about the virtues of a political structure that pays nearly 11,000 people more money (by dint of their brains and brilliance, I'm sure) than our own PM. But they haven't been able to do it. Which makes me think that there are few, if any, virtues to speak of.
I love Britain. I love Europe. But I have no affection for the EU.
NATO membership - BAOR - my friend was given a pig sty to live in by the Germans he was defending. Germany spends 1% of GDP on its armed forces, and their equipment maintenance is so bad that recently they had only half a dozen Euro fighters available.
Brexiteers are 'tapping into raw emotions'. Really? Didn't we used to call it pandering to racism?
It feels bloody brilliant to be a Brexiteer.
Even the name. Swashbuckling into the future, wrapped in a union flag, a mixture of Last Night of the Proms, Trooping the Colour, the Red Arrows, Stonehenge, Grantchester church tower, and Cream Teas.
Lord Nelson! Lord Beaverbrook! Sir Winston Churchill! Sir Anthony Eden! Clement Attlee! Henry Cooper! Lady Diana! Maggie Thatcher!
I was willing to vote Remain last year. I even posted on FB in a smug manner to some uniformed friends about the virtues of working together with our neighbours.
I've never, ever been convinced of the EU. I've always reflexively disliked the anti-democratic nature of it; it's unspoken desire to want to control the lives of the masses and make it more difficult for us as individuals to overthrow the ruling classes.
But I was willing to park all that high-minded sovereignty stuff, truly believing that Cameron would kick some arse during the negotiations and get the EU - especially with France in the economic doldrums - to run in a more German/British manner and less of a French and southern Mediterranean one. I thought he could use some muscle to get us Brits the best of both worlds.
Somewhere along the way the Remain camp lost my trust and then lost my vote. Cameron's negotiation was more spin than substance and then Michael Gove's inspiring article at the beginning of the campaign hooked me in. Since then - and this isn't through confirmation bias, I've read as much contrasting opinion as I can - I've become even more convinced of Brexit. I can barely believe it, and I'm even embarrassed to tell some of my friends about it in case I offend them.
Forget Boris, and IDS and the diehards in UKIP like Farage. I've been convinced by the gentler, more inspiring, more hope-led sorts like Gisela Stuart.
I might regret it but the whole establishment has had a prolonged campaign to tell me about the virtues of a political structure that pays nearly 11,000 people more money (by dint of their brains and brilliance, I'm sure) than our own PM. But they haven't been able to do it. Which makes me think that there are few, if any, virtues to speak of.
I love Britain. I love Europe. But I have no affection for the EU.
#Brexit for me.
Have u just made ur mind up. Excellent. Please talk to ur friends and family why u think we should leave.
I was willing to vote Remain last year. I even posted on FB in a smug manner to some uniformed friends about the virtues of working together with our neighbours.
I've never, ever been convinced of the EU. I've always reflexively disliked the anti-democratic nature of it; it's unspoken desire to want to control the lives of the masses and make it more difficult for us as individuals to overthrow the ruling classes.
But I was willing to park all that high-minded sovereignty stuff, truly believing that Cameron would kick some arse during the negotiations and get the EU - especially with France in the economic doldrums - to run in a more German/British manner and less of a French and southern Mediterranean one. I thought he could use some muscle to get us Brits the best of both worlds.
Somewhere along the way the Remain camp lost my trust and then lost my vote. Cameron's negotiation was more spin than substance and then Michael Gove's inspiring article at the beginning of the campaign hooked me in. Since then - and this isn't through confirmation bias, I've read as much contrasting opinion as I can - I've become even more convinced of Brexit. I can barely believe it, and I'm even embarrassed to tell some of my friends about it in case I offend them.
Forget Boris, and IDS and the diehards in UKIP like Farage. I've been convinced by the gentler, more inspiring, more hope-led sorts like Gisela Stuart.
I might regret it but the whole establishment has had a prolonged campaign to tell me about the virtues of a political structure that pays nearly 11,000 people more money (by dint of their brains and brilliance, I'm sure) than our own PM. But they haven't been able to do it. Which makes me think that there are few, if any, virtues to speak of.
I love Britain. I love Europe. But I have no affection for the EU.
I was willing to vote Remain last year. I even posted on FB in a smug manner to some uniformed friends about the virtues of working together with our neighbours.
I've never, ever been convinced of the EU. I've always reflexively disliked the anti-democratic nature of it; it's unspoken desire to want to control the lives of the masses and make it more difficult for us as individuals to overthrow the ruling classes.
But I was willing to park all that high-minded sovereignty stuff, truly believing that Cameron would kick some arse during the negotiations and get the EU - especially with France in the economic doldrums - to run in a more German/British manner and less of a French and southern Mediterranean one. I thought he could use some muscle to get us Brits the best of both worlds.
Somewhere along the way the Remain camp lost my trust and then lost my vote. Cameron's negotiation was more spin than substance and then Michael Gove's inspiring article at the beginning of the campaign hooked me in. Since then - and this isn't through confirmation bias, I've read as much contrasting opinion as I can - I've become even more convinced of Brexit. I can barely believe it, and I'm even embarrassed to tell some of my friends about it in case I offend them.
Forget Boris, and IDS and the diehards in UKIP like Farage. I've been convinced by the gentler, more inspiring, more hope-led sorts like Gisela Stuart.
I might regret it but the whole establishment has had a prolonged campaign to tell me about the virtues of a political structure that pays nearly 11,000 people more money (by dint of their brains and brilliance, I'm sure) than our own PM. But they haven't been able to do it. Which makes me think that there are few, if any, virtues to speak of.
I love Britain. I love Europe. But I have no affection for the EU.
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/brexit-how-a-fringe-idea-took-hold-tory-party
On the day that I saw [Matthew] Elliott, the papers were full of allegations – later convincingly denied – that Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, has been denying key papers to senior ministers who support Brexit. Elliott was in no doubt: “If this turns into a referendum between the establishment and the people, we will win. By miles.”
The Wiki page paints quite a striking red (Leave lead) & green (Remain lead) picture.
http://tinyurl.com/hdx23f3
I saw Neil annihilate Ed Vaizey and a Labour MP at lunchtime, really can't see anything but a Leave win now. I've been rubbished on here for months for saying that ambivalent Labour supporters will win this for Leave, John Mann was excellent on the same programme.
Anyone see that fishing boat hose down Geldof? Fantastic stuff.
Awkward if BMG real results later today are also 45% LEAVE v 41% REMAIN.
"Since 1975 the EU has mutated in exactly the way we then feared and now resembles nothing so much as the Habsburg Empire in its dying days. A bloated bureaucracy that has outgrown all usefulness. A parliament that represents many nations, but with no democratic legitimacy. Countries on its periphery pitched into poverty, or agitating for secession. The EU’s hunger for power has been matched only by its incompetence. The European Union is making the people of our continent poorer, and less free."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/world-spectator-backs-brexit/
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/743075154507489280
"A vote to leave would represent an extraordinary vote of confidence in the project of the United Kingdom and the principle of national self-determination. It would also show reform-minded Europeans that theirs is not a lost cause. And that we stand willing to help forge a Europe based on freedom, co-operation and respect for sovereignty."
That's precisely why I'm voting Leave. And I'm proud to do so.
Remain seemed to be strolling it until that 330,000 figure came out. That, and the TV coverage it received, was the game changer. For me, immigration was always going to be Leave's winning hand. That's why I bet accordingly. I could not see how Remain could counter it.
We're not there yet but we can smell victory in all its beauty and glory, we're going to sieze it, its an unstoppable force.
"We anticipate a higher turnout than at the GE"
Make of that what you will. Seeing what Im seeing thats good for Leave. Very good.
on 1, I don't think the deal has played any part in the decision making process for the vast majority of people, it's a non-entity, i can't even remember the talking points from it.
on 5, I can't see what else Remain can do, EU immigration can't be controlled in the EU, so their two choices are to cut non-eu immigration to reduce the perceived surplus of immigrants, or try and change the subject (the option they chose)
Hillary moves 12pts clear
Hillary 49
Trump 37
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016
Expect Bale to have foot separated from ankle within the first five minutes...
Planned before Ossie's tantrum though its almost as if they saw it coming...
pitchforkspencilsBrexiteers are 'tapping into raw emotions'. Really? Didn't we used to call it pandering to racism?
Labour Leave have had by FAR the best campaign so far.
Also FWIW was told that the 'vast' majority of people registering to vote during the last week were already on the register.
Even the name. Swashbuckling into the future, wrapped in a union flag, a mixture of Last Night of the Proms, Trooping the Colour, the Red Arrows, Stonehenge, Grantchester church tower, and Cream Teas.
In the face of that, if you think anyone can convince people of the marginal benefits of this EU directive or how that EU directive has simplified and standardised the widget industry...
...you're avin' a laugh.
Being an actuary is for people who find accounting too exciting.
Be LEAVE!
Things would never have got as out-of-hand as they did and have.
Unless Corbyn decides to put that in his manifesto of course.
I also think that Leave have acquitted themselves well in the majority of the TV debates and last Thursday was dreadful for Remain with Sturgeon, Izzard, Eagle and Rudd all having an attack of the crazies.
Even without such a change, the turbulence, at best, in the Conservative Party will give Labour (and UKIP) much better hopes than they would have enjoyed had Cameron/Osborne not been so inept.
@GdnPolitics: Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies https://t.co/4i50BfgLwv
"Where were you at the time of the crime?/Down by the Cenotaph, drinking slime"
I hope you're happy. Soon you'll be able to measure your inside leg in groats!
How about having the next referendum on NATO membership? Bring it on!
(via Ipsos Mori, phone (06 to 12 June 2016). Of those likely to vote.
Scotland six months behind the rest of the UK?
I've never, ever been convinced of the EU. I've always reflexively disliked the anti-democratic nature of it; it's unspoken desire to want to control the lives of the masses and make it more difficult for us as individuals to overthrow the ruling classes.
But I was willing to park all that high-minded sovereignty stuff, truly believing that Cameron would kick some arse during the negotiations and get the EU - especially with France in the economic doldrums - to run in a more German/British manner and less of a French and southern Mediterranean one. I thought he could use some muscle to get us Brits the best of both worlds.
Somewhere along the way the Remain camp lost my trust and then lost my vote. Cameron's negotiation was more spin than substance and then Michael Gove's inspiring article at the beginning of the campaign hooked me in. Since then - and this isn't through confirmation bias, I've read as much contrasting opinion as I can - I've become even more convinced of Brexit. I can barely believe it, and I'm even embarrassed to tell some of my friends about it in case I offend them.
Forget Boris, and IDS and the diehards in UKIP like Farage. I've been convinced by the gentler, more inspiring, more hope-led sorts like Gisela Stuart.
I might regret it but the whole establishment has had a prolonged campaign to tell me about the virtues of a political structure that pays nearly 11,000 people more money (by dint of their brains and brilliance, I'm sure) than our own PM. But they haven't been able to do it. Which makes me think that there are few, if any, virtues to speak of.
I love Britain. I love Europe. But I have no affection for the EU.
#Brexit for me.
Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies
Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son’s claims
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
Can Bernie just quit and head off to 1000 already for the Presidency btw ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5h4PFBuzvw
Michael Crick forgets Farage has the ambition of UK Independence from the EU.
Why would Crick have forgotten? Anything to do with Channel Four?
#TakeBackControl