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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Austro-Hungarian parable
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Austro-Hungarian parable
Austria-Hungary does not have a good press nowadays. It is vaguely thought of as an autocratic dysfunctional empire whose demise was unmourned. Lands that once formed a single empire that had been ruled by the Hapsburgs for centuries are now shared between a dozen independent countries. No one clamours for it to be reconstituted.
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Anywho, like a week ago, I am personally still in two minds about how to vote. I think a "Remain" vote is on balance better for the country (though I don't think leaving would really make that much tangible difference to the country either way), but I really don't want to endorse the vile "Remain" campaign and encourage the politicos to use similar tactics in future.
Ozzy might have been lowballing the £30 bn figure in light of that.
"Give us your money, just f##king give us your money"
Quite right – the strategy should be to win hearts and minds of wavering middle class voters. I think the WWC vote is gone, sadly. Very regrettable but there it is.
No. They all want to share their neighbours MONEY.
As a hypothetical, if Cameron were to announce his future resignation before the referendum (he could say that he doesn't want such an important decision to be decided on a personal vote for him, and he is bowing out gracefully now to neutralise the issue of kicking him and osborne), would that help remain or leave?
Maybe it's the only play remaining for BSE? A bit like when Gordon Brown announced he was resigning to help woo the LD's to Labour in 2010
And I don't see how things could get any worse anyway, given that I'm sure we were told London would cease to be a financial centre if we didn't join the Euro....
But, I don't think it holds much in the way of lessons for us.
I just don't feel comfortable encouraging a campaign playbook which, if successful, will be used to defeat my point of view on issues which I care MUCH more about than staying in the EU.
If you wind back to when Brown was in Downing Street, people thought his reelection would cause the markets to lose confidence in the UK Treasury. Osborne has, through luck or judgement, steadied the ship and many people are now confident to take an even bigger risk by voting for Brexit, but we still have major structural issues. The last 6 years suggest that fixing them over the medium term is realistic if things stay the same, but if they don't, we'll need to fix them more quickly, and that will involve real pain to real people.
(edited to add: good afternoon, everyone)
@MichaelLCrick: Farage friend says he's been approached by Boris camp about job in Johnson govt & place in Lords to avoid fighting possible Thanet by-elect
"You want to be part of this? Really?"
Austria Hungary was an undemocratic oligarchic empire where people of no obvious talent thought they had the right to live a life of luxury on the backs of others because they were simply better. I can see the analogy with the EU right enough but why we should volunteer to remain subservient rather escapes me.
But sadly I must dash so don't have the time to explain it.
Edit: sadly for the badinage this site is so adored for; happily for every other poster. And me.
Here's some light reading to be getting on with. Be careful, not for the faint-hearted.
But it strike me as not really being a priori bound to happen. What will change in the first year after Brexit is announced. Some uncertainty is reduced, other uncertainty that already exists comes into sharper focus. Otherwise, I trading status does not change much for two years on most people's reckoning.
So where is this huge hit coming from and when? Is it coming solely from the much predicted economic correction/recession/crash reducing revenues? From some lost revenue source that being in the EU magically bestows on us? From increased costs caused by leaving?
I am genuinely at a loss as to how it gets to 30bn GBP. Say our economy is 2 trillion for round sums. We have a hit of 2%, so 40bn is lost to GDP. Say taxation of this is 20%, revenues are down 8bn. How do we get to 30bn?
Genuine attempts at enlightenment welcomed.
Good to have you back by the way.
Beyond this, it should be noted that the EEA has the emergency brake mechanism for the four freedoms which have been used before - by both Iceland and Lichtenstein. IN the end, the EU could not pressure Lichtenstein and their concession was made permanent. As the commission has in its deal with Cameron already acknowledged that we are in a state of 'social emergency' then there will be no article 114 EEA issues to rebalance - as using the brake itself will be the balancing action for the UK.
Essentially I think the overall structure of Brexit is now clear. Because immigration has been the central argument of the Leave side, and certainly the one which has the greatest salience with voters, we can be very sure that we would end up with a realtively loose deal with the EU. In outline, I'd expect: Limited access to the Single Market, no tariffs on manufactured goods, compliance with EU product type approvals, probably streamlined customs paperwork (similar to the EEA 'movement certificate'), no freedom of movement, no financial passporting, no special deal on access to the Single Market in services, no protection for the City against Eurozone attempts to divert business their way.
No gain without pain. Personally, I find the short sharp shock resulting in a move to new habits easier than sustained discipline. So, it seems, do countries. Witness Japan and France, vs UK and Germany.
The EU was created as an antidote to fascism and communism and to reinforce liberalism in Europe. Maybe those purposes are seen as superfluous now?
Obviously Brexit will bring change to the City. Some business lines will be lost, freer regulations will open up others. Ever was it thus.
They kept threatening to do London over even befor Brexit became a possibility.
Nothing is certain even if we stay in.
The E.U. is not exactly being run for our benefit now is it.
Then, they argued that sooner or later the UK will elect a left wing government, which (outside of the EU) would have the freedom to do left wing things, like renationalising railways and providing state aid to industry.
There was rather more common ground with the 'Kippers present over matters of democracy and sovereignty.
Good fences make good neighbours.
But our strength is in services. Either they agree to us continuing to have access for services or we see how far those employment reforms in France work as they lay off tens of thousands.
In 2017, the EU is going to open the Unified Patent Court. This court will make it much easier for patent trolls and corporations in the US – armed with dodgy patent applications and IP attorneys – to reach into the UK and strangle your startup at birth. Think about it.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/06/15/patent_trolls_innovation_and_brexit/