politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Austro-Hungarian parable
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Gove doing a good job so far.0
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SouthamObserver said:
Joe Public wants a lot more public spending. Joe Public is right. But Joe Public is not going to get that from Boris, Priti and co.john_zims said:@Danny565
'But the problem is that Joe Public either doesn't care about, or actively doesn't want, Britain to be an "open, internationalist country". Rightly or wrongly, the mood right now is that we have enough problems of our own, and we're best off focussing on them.'
Spot on.
Joe Public wants to get a GP appointment when they are ill,not 3 weeks later.
Joe Public wants their kid to get into their local school, preferably one that's not overcrowded.
Joe Public wants to have affordable housing.
Joe public wants to compete on a level playing field.
Joe Public wants "the immigrants" sent back where they came from (got that gem today in a conversation out of the blue).
Joe Public wants the rich to pay punitive rates of income tax.
Joe Public wants capital punishment reintroduced.
Joe Public wants their own taxes down and spending well up.
Populism when released is a dangerous animal.
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I'm a bit puzzled by Theresa May's intervention, Is she saying that some things are up for re-negotiation in the event of a Remain vote. Or is it just a no ifs, no buts, let's forget I ever said it thing? Copyright Cameron D.0
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Bringing Osborne into the spotlight in these crucial last days is a huge mistake.alex. said:It's possible that Osborne's budget stuff today was quite simply a desperate attempt to get the campaign away from Immigation, immigration, immigration. People don't have to believe the extent of the warnings, but at least they will be thinking about something other than immigration. And presumably the idea is to get people thinking "that's scaremongering, it won't be anywhere near that bad", but as long as they still think it will be a little bit bad then that is probably enough.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".0 -
I find myself very conflicted on that.MP_SE said:
Good. Osborne is an odious creature.Danny565 said:Michael Gove WON'T support Osborne's Punishment Budget.
On the one hand Osborne has done a good job of managing the economy towards the very clear goals that he and Cameron set. You may disagree with those goals (personally I support them) but he has pursued them fairly doggedly and made reasonable progress. But now he puts all that progress at risk by making rash promises which have no basis in democracy (Tory MPs were elected on a manifesto that promised, for example, to ringfence NHS spending) and which undermine his credibility and by extension undermine the UK economy.
On the other hand without the Cameron/Osborne alliance and their electoral effectiveness we wouldn't be having a referendum - so where did it all go wrong?0 -
Exactly - you beat me by one minute.alex. said:It's possible that Osborne's budget stuff today was quite simply a desperate attempt to get the campaign away from Immigation, immigration, immigration. People don't have to believe the extent of the warnings, but at least they will be thinking about something other than immigration. And presumably the idea is to get people thinking "that's scaremongering, it won't be anywhere near that bad", but as long as they still think it will be a little bit bad then that is probably enough.
It's the flipside of Leave exaggerating the contributions we make to the EU, it's not best countered by "it's nothing like £350m it's much less than that".0 -
Mr Thrak,
"Populism when released is a dangerous animal." Yes, democracy is over-rated. Better with a benevolent dictator. I'm available for a king's ransom.0 -
In the Year of Our Lord 2016, English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EUref.Sean_F said:
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
They voted like warrior-poets.
They voted like Britons.
And they won their Freedom.0 -
@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
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It seems that the two parts of the British middle class have swapped places.
The traditional whingers, who say and really believe that it's the poor old middles who always get trodden on (whether or not they themselves are buy-to-let scum types), while the authorities hand out their tax money to the lower orders, are pulling on their Union Jack underwear with great joy at the thought that next Thursday there will be some kind of a right-wing popular revolution. Their whinging has been a part of the country's culture for generations. And now for a while they've stopped!
The more educated types, meanwhile, are moaning and moaning that working class people ("members of the public", "the WWC", "the general public", "Joe Public") are allowed to vote - or that they are allowed to vote Leave anyway. I've spotted that attitude in several different places now. These types don't traditionally whinge much. They're too busy eating focaccia, pratting about at the gym, and talking about Tuscany or the Dordogne. But now they're whingeing like pros! Guardian readers, you are the new Daily Mail readers!
I seriously can't imagine that the Daily Mail isn't going to join the Sun in encouraging its readers to vote Leave. This referendum is over.
Then what? Well what kind of idiot thinks a Johnson-Gove government is going to cut immigration by much? The employers want immigration, and they want weak trade unions. And that's what they've got, a combination that allows them to keep wages low and then lower them some more.0 -
Gove visibly pissed off at the Guardian trying to manipulate his dad.0
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ITV News running with a main story about the mess at North Middlesex A and E.0
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Wolfgang SchaeubleRichard_Nabavi said:
Ken Clarke was good, true, but I was really asking about other comparable economies since the crash - few of which started out with as bad a position as Osborne inherited.Alanbrooke said:
Ken Clarke, but really it's a loaded question as there isn't much choice.Richard_Nabavi said:
So who would you say has done better?Alanbrooke said:
Errr No.Richard_Nabavi said:
Osborne certainly is, given that he has been perhaps the most successful Finance Minister of any major developed economy since the crash.Alanbrooke said:Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
They're not credible
but then he has an easy hand to play0 -
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.0 -
That narrative is just pissing into the wind. The Remain dirty tricks unit needs to plant black propaganda painting UKIP and Johnson as Kremlin assets. Come on, guys! Seriously! Have a look at some of Farage's speeches in Strasbourg (search on "Ukraine"), and his appearances on RT. As for Johnson, look at Russian money in London. Do you have to hire me to tell you this stuff, or what?PlatoSaid said:Gove visibly pissed off at the Guardian trying to manipulate his dad.
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deleted0
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It's actually £163 million a week (2015, net).MikeL said:It's obvious the Emergency Budget wouldn't actually happen.
But that doesn't mean it is a mistake by Remain.
It is simply about creating headlines.
Just like Leave's £350m.0 -
Fixing those things does not require us to leave the EU. It just needs a Government which chooses to fix those things.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
Cameron and Osborne have brought this on themselves by following an unnecessarily harsh policy of austerity.0 -
Sharon Krossa notes that the film contains numerous historical errors, beginning with the wearing of belted plaid by Wallace and his men. In that period "no Scots ... wore belted plaids (let alone kilts of any kind)." Moreover, when Highlanders finally did begin wearing the belted plaid, it was not "in the rather bizarre style depicted in the film". She compares the inaccuracy to "a film about Colonial America showing the colonial men wearing 20th century business suits, but with the jackets worn back-to-front instead of the right way around.Sean_F said:
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
"The events aren't accurate, the dates aren't accurate, the characters aren't accurate, the names aren't accurate, the clothes aren't accurate—in short, just about nothing is accurate." The belted plaid (feileadh mór léine) was not introduced until the 16th century.
Peter Traquair has referred to Wallace's "farcical representation as a wild and hairy highlander painted with woad (1,000 years too late) running amok in a tartan kilt (500 years too early)."
Irish historian, Seán Duffy remarked "the battle of Stirling Bridge could have done with a bridge."
In 2009, the film was second on a list of "most historically inaccurate movies" in The Times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braveheart#Historical_inaccuracy0 -
Blind Harry wrote ‘Schir William Wallace, Knicht of Ellerslie', a bit of pro-Wallace propaganda.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
In till Breichyn thai lugyt all that nycht;
Syne on the morn Wallace get graith thaim rycht,
Displayed on breid the baner off Scotland
In gud aray, with noble men at hand;
Gert plainly cry, that sawfte suld be nayne
Off Sotheroun blud, quhar thai mycht be ourtayn.
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Junior Doctors not deemed competent enough and not enough seniors by the sound of it.john_zims said:@chestnut
'ITV News running with a main story about the mess at North Middlesex A and E.'
What mess, have the doctors gone on strike again ?
Also an amalgamation of two A and E units into one.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/north-middlesex-hospital-ae-threatened-with-closure-over-serious-risk-to-patient-safety-a3271681.html0 -
I prefer £288 million a week - the gross amount after the rebate.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's actually £163 million a week (2015, net).MikeL said:It's obvious the Emergency Budget wouldn't actually happen.
But that doesn't mean it is a mistake by Remain.
It is simply about creating headlines.
Just like Leave's £350m.0 -
It's brilliant isn't it ?SouthamObserver said:
And so the last bridge is burned.Danny565 said:Michael Gove WON'T support Osborne's Punishment Budget.
The Tories are eating themselves.
But of course they're all just one big happy family.
The Addams possibly.0 -
Surely not! He will have played a key part in getting us out of the EU.SeanT said:
The most tragic thing about all this is that your fucking moron of a prime minister could have avoided all this if he'd been a tenth the statesman he claims to be, and got a decent renegotiation.Richard_Nabavi said:The most tragic aspect of all this is that, if the Leavers had actually done their homework over the past four years, we might have been going into the referendum with a coherent Brexit plan, and thus avoided much of the economic risk. It's about three years too late now, though.
Instead he decided to wing it, get any old bollocks, and then - even worse - try and sell it to the British people as a miracle of statecraft. He seemed surprised when we all laughed. And that's when REMAIN began to go off the rails.
The man who wanted to be prime minister because "he thought he'd be quite good at it", will, if he loses (now likelier than not) go down in history as the worst prime minister in 100 years, or maybe ever.
Impressive.0 -
The battle of Stirling Bridge could also have done with a river. If you remove the river and bridge there is no point in the battle.CarlottaVance said:
Sharon Krossa notes that the film contains numerous historical errors, beginning with the wearing of belted plaid by Wallace and his men. In that period "no Scots ... wore belted plaids (let alone kilts of any kind)." Moreover, when Highlanders finally did begin wearing the belted plaid, it was not "in the rather bizarre style depicted in the film". She compares the inaccuracy to "a film about Colonial America showing the colonial men wearing 20th century business suits, but with the jackets worn back-to-front instead of the right way around.Sean_F said:
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
"The events aren't accurate, the dates aren't accurate, the characters aren't accurate, the names aren't accurate, the clothes aren't accurate—in short, just about nothing is accurate." The belted plaid (feileadh mór léine) was not introduced until the 16th century.
Peter Traquair has referred to Wallace's "farcical representation as a wild and hairy highlander painted with woad (1,000 years too late) running amok in a tartan kilt (500 years too early)."
Irish historian, Seán Duffy remarked "the battle of Stirling Bridge could have done with a bridge."
In 2009, the film was second on a list of "most historically inaccurate movies" in The Times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braveheart#Historical_inaccuracy0 -
Did I tell you what I did on my Gap yaaaahhhhh....Indigo said:0 -
Not really, it'll be at least another four years until we actually Brexit, probably more, assuming we ever do.Richard_Nabavi said:The most tragic aspect of all this is that, if the Leavers had actually done their homework over the past four years, we might have been going into the referendum with a coherent Brexit plan, and thus avoided much of the economic risk. It's about three years too late now, though.
Just filled in and posted my vote .... feeling good about it.0 -
Which was the worst ? U-571 ?CarlottaVance said:
In 2009, the film was second on a list of "most historically inaccurate movies" in The Times.
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Yeah, but using the Net amount outflanks any REMAINIAN gripes on the lines of "But that's the Gross amount". Correct?Richard_Tyndall said:
I prefer £288 million a week - the gross amount after the rebate.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's actually £163 million a week (2015, net).MikeL said:It's obvious the Emergency Budget wouldn't actually happen.
But that doesn't mean it is a mistake by Remain.
It is simply about creating headlines.
Just like Leave's £350m.0 -
Not any more.Richard_Nabavi said:
Osborne certainly is, given that he has been perhaps the most successful Finance Minister of any major developed economy since the crash.Alanbrooke said:Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
They're not credible0 -
My (very very vaguely) remain other half has informed me Gove is doing "quite well".0
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OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.0 -
I would add that I think Braveheart is a thoroughly enjoyable film, but it's definitely historical fantasy.SeanT said:
The brilliant TV drama series Spartacus was, weirdly enough, despite all the tits and blood, impressively accurate in historical terms. Right down to the clothes and language.Sean_F said:
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
It speculated only where it HAD to speculate. So it can be done.
It's one of the unsung triumphs of TV in my opinion. An outright masterpiece.0 -
Well if everything is as rosy post Brexit as the leavers say, then perhaps we'll have to review the opinion of him upwardspbr2013 said:
Not any more.Richard_Nabavi said:
Osborne certainly is, given that he has been perhaps the most successful Finance Minister of any major developed economy since the crash.Alanbrooke said:Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
They're not credible
If he's built an economy to comfortably withstand Brexit then he must be doing something right!
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The simple reply being that any money they condescend to give back to us comes with strings attached and the requirement in most cases for matched funding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yeah, but using the Net amount outflanks any REMAINIAN gripes on the lines of "But that's the Gross amount". Correct?Richard_Tyndall said:
I prefer £288 million a week - the gross amount after the rebate.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's actually £163 million a week (2015, net).MikeL said:It's obvious the Emergency Budget wouldn't actually happen.
But that doesn't mean it is a mistake by Remain.
It is simply about creating headlines.
Just like Leave's £350m.0 -
Yep - Gibson also makes the list at number 4 for The Patriot:Indigo said:
Which was the worst ? U-571 ?CarlottaVance said:
In 2009, the film was second on a list of "most historically inaccurate movies" in The Times.
http://web.archive.org/web/20110615070116/http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/film/article6738785.ece0 -
Belated congratulations to @Sunil for The Sun's front page yesterday.
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YupIndigo said:
Which was the worst ? U-571 ?CarlottaVance said:
In 2009, the film was second on a list of "most historically inaccurate movies" in The Times.0 -
What really annoys me about the Battle of Stirling Bridge is that the tactics Wallace used there are excellent and certainly far better than just using sharp sticks to knock off the knights.Tim_B said:
The battle of Stirling Bridge could also have done with a river. If you remove the river and bridge there is no point in the battle.CarlottaVance said:
Sharon Krossa notes that the film contains numerous historical errors, beginning with the wearing of belted plaid by Wallace and his men. In that period "no Scots ... wore belted plaids (let alone kilts of any kind)." Moreover, when Highlanders finally did begin wearing the belted plaid, it was not "in the rather bizarre style depicted in the film". She compares the inaccuracy to "a film about Colonial America showing the colonial men wearing 20th century business suits, but with the jackets worn back-to-front instead of the right way around.Sean_F said:
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
"The events aren't accurate, the dates aren't accurate, the characters aren't accurate, the names aren't accurate, the clothes aren't accurate—in short, just about nothing is accurate." The belted plaid (feileadh mór léine) was not introduced until the 16th century.
Peter Traquair has referred to Wallace's "farcical representation as a wild and hairy highlander painted with woad (1,000 years too late) running amok in a tartan kilt (500 years too early)."
Irish historian, Seán Duffy remarked "the battle of Stirling Bridge could have done with a bridge."
In 2009, the film was second on a list of "most historically inaccurate movies" in The Times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braveheart#Historical_inaccuracy
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Great finale from Gove. Lots of applause.0
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Gove is a first-rate politician.0
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He tweeted this a couple of hours ago:peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.
The fact that so many CON MPs have reacted so strongly against Osborne's budget move suggests they realise how potent the move is.
I dont expect he is enjoying po,itics much at the moment. After all its only a year since Libdemgeddon.0 -
Is it time for the Leave bombshell?
Perhaps Boris could come out and say if Leave wins, David Cameron and George Osborne will both have to find alternative employment.
The PM's trust rating on Europe is less than 20%. Why not make it explicitly about getting him out?0 -
The line might be that Osborne and Cameron were doing great - with the effortless ease that one expects of Clarendon school alumni who never need to "try hard" - and then the knuckle-dragging "Joe Publics" came along and wrecked everything, too busy having mixed-race babies in council flats to know what's good for them. But this can't quite get round the fact that the members and supporters of the Tory party are swarming to vote Leave. There is a highly amusing side to watching the party devour itself.alex. said:
Well if everything is as rosy post Brexit as the leavers say, then perhaps we'll have to review the opinion of him upwardspbr2013 said:
Not any more.Richard_Nabavi said:
Osborne certainly is, given that he has been perhaps the most successful Finance Minister of any major developed economy since the crash.Alanbrooke said:Ah yes Gordo, who bullied darling and where George said his policies would lead to sharing the proceeds of growth.
They're not credible If he's built an economy to comfortably withstand Brexit then he must be doing something right!0 -
George George George! One day of idiocy and look what you have done to the detoxing of the Tory party that Dave has been working on for years!
https://twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/7428425874474721280 -
Um, thanks. I have no idea if they actually saw my Be LEAVE tweets here or on TwitterHertsmere_Pubgoer said:Belated congratulations to @Sunil for The Sun's front page yesterday.
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I used this webpage for the net figure:Richard_Tyndall said:
The simple reply being that any money they condescend to give back to us comes with strings attached and the requirement in most cases for matched funding.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yeah, but using the Net amount outflanks any REMAINIAN gripes on the lines of "But that's the Gross amount". Correct?Richard_Tyndall said:
I prefer £288 million a week - the gross amount after the rebate.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's actually £163 million a week (2015, net).MikeL said:It's obvious the Emergency Budget wouldn't actually happen.
But that doesn't mean it is a mistake by Remain.
It is simply about creating headlines.
Just like Leave's £350m.
https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/0 -
And the retirement areas on the south coastThrak said:
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.0 -
It created the wrong headlines. 'Leave means massive tax rises' is an ok message to target waverers. 'Osborne will raise your taxes if we leave' is not, even if they mean the same thing when you get right down to it.MikeL said:It's obvious the Emergency Budget wouldn't actually happen.
But that doesn't mean it is a mistake by Remain.
It is simply about creating headlines.
Just like Leave's £350m.0 -
Remain now in to 1.52.
Midnight 1.66
Pre QT 1.56
Now 1.520 -
Films set in the past are really about the present and what concerns (and gets them to buy tickets) today's audience - so Braveheart says a lot more about America in 1995, than Scotland in 1305 - and their job is to entertain - its just a pity when they are treated as 'history'.....Sean_F said:
I would add that I think Braveheart is a thoroughly enjoyable film, but it's definitely historical fantasy.SeanT said:
The brilliant TV drama series Spartacus was, weirdly enough, despite all the tits and blood, impressively accurate in historical terms. Right down to the clothes and language.Sean_F said:
Oh come on! Edward I didn't throw Piers Gaveston out of window. Queen Isabella didn't have an affair with Wallace (she was 5 when Wallace died). Wallace wasn't the father of Edward III.scotslass said:The John M
As it happens Braveheart wasn't bad history at all. It got the essence of the story right. The Plataginat expansionists got their comeuppance at the hands of the plucky Scots. The source for Randall Wallace's script was a 15th century Scots rymer called Blind Harry. It was therefore better history than just about any other Hollywood historical blockbuster.
It speculated only where it HAD to speculate. So it can be done.
It's one of the unsung triumphs of TV in my opinion. An outright masterpiece.0 -
Didn't a Sun journalist (Lucian????) used to post here for years?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Um, thanks. I have no idea if they actually saw my Be LEAVE tweets here or on TwitterHertsmere_Pubgoer said:Belated congratulations to @Sunil for The Sun's front page yesterday.
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Like the fluttering of a butterly's wings, they started an unstoppable wave of demand that it become a real headline.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Um, thanks. I have no idea if they actually saw my Be LEAVE tweets here or on TwitterHertsmere_Pubgoer said:Belated congratulations to @Sunil for The Sun's front page yesterday.
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OGH is on holiday (back next week I think)peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.
However, one if his tweets on Monday very nearly caused a run on the Pound when he tweeted incorrect numbers for an ICM poll!0 -
Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.0 -
I believe he is on holiday.peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.0 -
Nope, Gove has now ruled out tax increases and promised more public spending. This will not end well for him.Richard_Nabavi said:
He won't need to, he'll be the Chancellor who has to deliver it.Danny565 said:Michael Gove WON'T support Osborne's Punishment Budget.
The stuff about Turkey is just plain dishonest. But to be fair to Gove, he is very good at delivering a lie.
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Michael Gove on the telly.MikeL said:Remain now in to 1.52.
Midnight 1.66
Pre QT 1.56
Now 1.520 -
Yep, Lucian Fletcher (not his real name, natch). Met him a couple of times at PB pub meets, though not for a few years now.GIN1138 said:
Didn't a Sun journalist (Lucian????) used to post here for years?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Um, thanks. I have no idea if they actually saw my Be LEAVE tweets here or on TwitterHertsmere_Pubgoer said:Belated congratulations to @Sunil for The Sun's front page yesterday.
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Because for most the alternatives are considerably worse (than Dave at least).RoyalBlue said:Is it time for the Leave bombshell?
Perhaps Boris could come out and say if Leave wins, David Cameron and George Osborne will both have to find alternative employment.
The PM's trust rating on Europe is less than 20%. Why not make it explicitly about getting him out?0 -
mark reckless named at pmqsTheScreamingEagles said:
Michael Gove on the telly.MikeL said:Remain now in to 1.52.
Midnight 1.66
Pre QT 1.56
Now 1.520 -
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He moved to Ireland & recently left the current bun. Last heard on the rock n roll.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yep, Lucian Fletcher (not his real name, natch). Met him a couple of times at PB pub meets, though not for a few years now.GIN1138 said:
Didn't a Sun journalist (Lucian????) used to post here for years?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Um, thanks. I have no idea if they actually saw my Be LEAVE tweets here or on TwitterHertsmere_Pubgoer said:Belated congratulations to @Sunil for The Sun's front page yesterday.
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They were the correct numbers, but alas not the right pollGIN1138 said:
OGH is on holiday (back next week I think)peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.
However, one if his tweets on Monday very nearly caused a run on the Pound when he tweeted incorrect numbers for an ICM poll!0 -
Fools and their money and all that.reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
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It did cause a short run on the pound for about 10 minutes !GIN1138 said:
OGH is on holiday (back next week I think)peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.
However, one if his tweets on Monday very nearly caused a run on the Pound when he tweeted incorrect numbers for an ICM poll!0 -
Another balanced, hand selected, audience from the Beeb.0
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Edit: Not actually a run, a rally.Pulpstar said:
It did cause a short run on the pound for about 10 minutes !GIN1138 said:
OGH is on holiday (back next week I think)peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.
However, one if his tweets on Monday very nearly caused a run on the Pound when he tweeted incorrect numbers for an ICM poll!0 -
O/T Referendum turnout.
I'm on in the 65%-70% range - what do you guys think?0 -
Lifts my spirit and brings joy to my heart every time I read a post like thispeter_from_putney said:
Not really, it'll be at least another four years until we actually Brexit, probably more, assuming we ever do.Richard_Nabavi said:The most tragic aspect of all this is that, if the Leavers had actually done their homework over the past four years, we might have been going into the referendum with a coherent Brexit plan, and thus avoided much of the economic risk. It's about three years too late now, though.
Just filled in and posted my vote .... feeling good about it. 0 -
Maybe a Slovakian after this evening's result!Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
I'm expecting a bad poll for Remain tomorrow with Ipsos Mori.
I'm reading too much into Ben Page's tweet.
He was asked 'A week ago you were still a Remain man, has your view changed now to Leave Sir?'
and Ben replied with
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/7431097093229772800 -
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Have we got BMG and Ipso mori tonight? Or is that tomorrow?0
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But to be fair to Gove, he is very good at delivering a lie.
'The most important quality for a politician to have is sincerity - and if you can fake that well you've got it made'. But in Gove's case he IS sincere. He put himself through serious grief to take on the Blob at Education for no obvious personal gain. He believes in a small state and putting the consumer before the producer. He'd make a fine PM.0 -
If the conservative right wing and the labour left wing are going to be in charge, plus with the national invisibility of the Liberal Democrats, surely the coming political realignment is going to include a new centrist grouping? That's a very large area being left open to exploit. Has anyone heard about anything? I presume that we won't know much until after the poll, just in case remain achieves a now unlikely win. John Major has been my favourite PM, even if not the most effective, I can't bring myself to vote for a leave-like conservative party though and Corbyn is out of the question. Nature abhors a vacuum so who steps up and gives centrist voters a home?0
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Mike's on holiday until next Monday, he knows he can put his feet up when I'm in charge as nothing happens on his holiday.peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK.0 -
Plenty will wobble, but the scale of some recent Leave polls, if sustained, makes me think it won't be enough. I'm feeling a little wobbly myself, a bit - I'm prepared to pay a price, for the country to pay a price, but there are limits, but deciding what that is when the EU is so unpalatable is hard - but it would require a lot of wobbling and people going from leave to remain, not just leave to no vote.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble0 -
Possibly notmidwinter said:
Because for most the alternatives are considerably worse (than Dave at least).RoyalBlue said:Is it time for the Leave bombshell?
Perhaps Boris could come out and say if Leave wins, David Cameron and George Osborne will both have to find alternative employment.
The PM's trust rating on Europe is less than 20%. Why not make it explicitly about getting him out?
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Anti-doping officials in Russia are being stopped from testing athletes and threatened by security services, says a World Anti-Doping Agency report.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/36542577
Will the IoC have the balls to uphold the ban for Rio?0 -
Right now I'm seeing a Labour Leave ad at the top of PB. The one with a pic of Dave and George and the caption "Wipe the smile off their faces. Vote Leave on June 23rd"0
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There is, but I confidently predict, on nothing but history and gut, that there will be no realignment, even if it would be a bloody good idea. Personally I'd have probably voted for a Coalition party last time if one was available. But no one will be offering that.Thrak said:If the conservative right wing and the labour left wing are going to be in charge, plus with the national invisibility of the Liberal Democrats, surely the coming political realignment is going to include a new centrist grouping? That's a very large area being left open to exploit.
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It's completely unpredictable because of the skew in the voting intentions. One recent poll showed that 29% of Brexit voters didn't actually know what day the referendum was. Leave is reliant on a demographic that doesn't ordinarily vote. I doubt they'll be frightened off as such though.kle4 said:
Plenty will wobble, but the scale of some recent Leave polls, if sustained, makes me think it won't be enough. I'm feeling a little wobbly myself, a bit - I'm prepared to pay a price, for the country to pay a price, but there are limits, but deciding what that is when the EU is so unpalatable is hard - but it would require a lot of wobbling and people going from leave to remain, not just leave to no vote.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble0 -
A bloke on the Gove thing just now asked about repatriation and suggested it might be needed.midwinter said:
And the retirement areas on the south coastThrak said:
What bubble? I've been surrounded by this type of person and they think that leave is going to stop all immigration and some, who consider this relatively liberal, expect voluntary but stop at forced repatriation. You can't have much contact with the WWC if you don't realise that a party offering those things would walk into many northern town constituencies.john_zims said:@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
I thought the reaction of the Spanish nurse, who has been here for fourteen years, was very interesting. Talking tough on immigration will win Leave the referendum, clearly. But then Gove and Boris have to go to Europe to get their deal. There are going to be a lot of voters in countries like Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic who will have heard what the Leave side have said about EU immigrants and - probably more pertinently - seen the headlines in the tabloids and they will not be wanting their governments to give the UK an easy time. There are lot more British immigrants in Spain, for example, than there are Spanish ones in the UK. I am not sure that Poland has a huge trade surplus with the UK, or that many Eastern European countries do.
Winning is one thing. But with everything they say and do Leave are making delivery that much harder.0 -
People are also really very annoyed at the doom, more doom, and hang on we've found even more doom, argument.SeanT said:reverend_cat said:Leave out to 2.9 on Betfair....
Everyone wants to back Remain when the polls aren't out.
Some super confident people out there.
Despite what I've just said, with a gun to my head I'd still predict a REMAIN win. People ARE scared. Enough will wobble
You're not scared, I'm not scared, I think we can conclude that nobody being scared is at least something of a runner.
I'm with you though on Remain still being the most likely outcome.0 -
I have it as well.Sunil_Prasannan said:Right now I'm seeing a Labour Leave ad at the top of PB. The one with a pic of Dave and George and the caption "Wipe the smile off their faces. Vote Leave on June 23rd"
Its also on UKPR.
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Why is Corbyn so high?Indigo said:
Possibly notmidwinter said:
Because for most the alternatives are considerably worse (than Dave at least).RoyalBlue said:Is it time for the Leave bombshell?
Perhaps Boris could come out and say if Leave wins, David Cameron and George Osborne will both have to find alternative employment.
The PM's trust rating on Europe is less than 20%. Why not make it explicitly about getting him out?0 -
@Bromptonaut@
@Thrak
'Populism when released is a dangerous animal.'
Wanting to have a GP appointment when your ill, a school that's not overcrowded for your kids and affordable housing is somehow 'POPULISM & RACISM'.
Can't believe how out of touch you are, you need to get out of your bubble occasionally.
'Fixing those things does not require us to leave the EU. It just needs a Government which chooses to fix those things.'
How can you fix any of those things when you don't know & have no control of the number of people coming into the country ?
Government manifesto target 2010 100,000,330,000 net migration last year, what's your guess for this year ?0 -
Except the odd flash crash in the markets when he wakes up in his sun lounger and starts tweeting old polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's on holiday until next Monday, he knows he can put his feet up when I'm in charge as nothing happens on his holiday.peter_from_putney said:OGH has been surprisingly quiet this past week or so, especially in view of all the excitement about the matter in hand and the multitude of polls relating thereto.
I do hope he's OK. 0 -
Great fun announcement
I've been out canvassing, but I've also been having some tremendous fun with datawrapper, the charts tools PB uses.
They've developed a Brexit map tool, you can play around with, it's free to use.
http://academy.datawrapper.de/create-brexit-maps-917486.html0 -
Sky news interviewer just asking david steel about clement Freud. Steel completely ignored the interviewer. I wonder why? Actually I think I know why.0
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Because his (one) redeeming feature is authenticity, you can pretty much trust what he says is what he thinks, Osborne and Cameron, not so much.kle4 said:
Why is Corbyn so high?Indigo said:
Possibly notmidwinter said:
Because for most the alternatives are considerably worse (than Dave at least).RoyalBlue said:Is it time for the Leave bombshell?
Perhaps Boris could come out and say if Leave wins, David Cameron and George Osborne will both have to find alternative employment.
The PM's trust rating on Europe is less than 20%. Why not make it explicitly about getting him out?0 -
Is a messagespace targeted advert.another_richard said:
I have it as well.Sunil_Prasannan said:Right now I'm seeing a Labour Leave ad at the top of PB. The one with a pic of Dave and George and the caption "Wipe the smile off their faces. Vote Leave on June 23rd"
Its also on UKPR.
Wait until you see the Remain ads coming up for the next 8 days.0 -
He certainly does not believe in putting the consumer before the producer. He believes in limiting the consumer's choice in services, for example: plumbing, plastering, building etc.Patrick said:But to be fair to Gove, he is very good at delivering a lie.
'The most important quality for a politician to have is sincerity - and if you can fake that well you've got it made'. But in Gove's case he IS sincere. He put himself through serious grief to take on the Blob at Education for no obvious personal gain. He believes in a small state and putting the consumer before the producer. He'd make a fine PM.
And if he really believes that the government will not use its veto to prevent Turkey joining the EU then he believes that David Cameron is a liar. Thus meaning he wants a liar and someone we cannot trust to be our leader.
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