politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Labour MPs have been reading their Macbeth. If i

GIN1138 said:

All this build up and it's probably going to be REMAIN 50% LEAVE 50%

From an ICM phone poll that would be news.

GIN1138 said:

All this build up and it's probably going to be REMAIN 50% LEAVE 50%

Billions of pounds traded for naught!

Estobar said:

I've been out all afternoon. Rather than scroll through hundreds of posts can someone just explain quickly what has happened? Ta muchly.

Someone got fat fingered. Old poll tweeted wrongly. Western Civilisation ended.
Otherwise not much in reality.

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

Which market, mind.

That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.

To be fair why would they bother? Since they could just claim the chaos proves them right?

None of this nonsense if you'd all simply voted Morris Dancer. Our sensible foreign policy of invading France would've happened in mid-May last year, and concluded late May 2015.

Morris_Dancer said:

None of this nonsense if you'd all simply voted Morris Dancer. Our sensible foreign policy of invading France would've happened in mid-May last year, and concluded late May 2015.

Is taking what is rightfully yours an invasion? *innocent face*

Labour just do not have an answer to the immigration question.

Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Gordon Brown brought in to re-launch remain campaign, ends up picking fights with The Sun and BBC. Way to go.

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

Which market, mind.

That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.

I really was joking when I mentioned the d-notice.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Labour just do not have an answer to the immigration question.

Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Gordon Brown brought in to re-launch remain campaign, ends up picking fights with The Sun and BBC. Way to go.

Lol. May need to have a third re-launch as they have really messed up this one.

Just had a message from MikeK, saying he's in limbo and cannot post. Any mod chap know the score?

marke09 said:

Pound didnt like that false poll its now gone back in the red

My Bloomberg has 1.4259 which is exactly - to the pip - unchanged for the day.

MP_SE said:

What would impact the UK more:

1. WW3; or
2. The destruction of Western civilisation

3. Running out of Hobnobs

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Inside Downing St. They wait for ICM....

David Cameron: "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking..."

"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue."

"The tower?! The TOWER?!

RAPUNZEL!...."

SandyRentool said:

TOPPING said:

AA Gill writes brilliantly on restaurants and as a tv critic. .

His Winnie-the-Pooh books are pretty good too.

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

Which market, mind.

That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.

Which is exactly why Cameron wouldn't have done it. He'd want maximum market carnage to be caused by a Leave-favourable poll, you know it, I know it, we all know it.

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

Which market, mind.

That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.

I really was joking when I mentioned the d-notice.

Sure. It will be interesting to see ICM's explanation for the delayed poll.

Quite possibly it's just the Guardian holding it back, wanting to make more impact?

And now I am actually going to get up, walk to the shops, and do something useful, for about ten minutes.

The ICM phone polls normally come out between 3.30pm and 6pm.

Someone, wrongly said it was out at 12.30pm, Martin Boon said at 12.30ish, ICM were still working on it.

My guess is that fieldwork only ended this morning.

rcs1000 said:

marke09 said:

Pound didnt like that false poll its now gone back in the red

My Bloomberg has 1.4259 which is exactly - to the pip - unchanged for the day.

i have totally different figures on poundsterlinglive

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

Which market, mind.

That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.

It could be the British people want to force Cameron and the EU to make a genuinely significant vow through real fear of Brexit..

Any idea where this huge meeting of the British People took place to decide this - I missed the invitation?

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

Which market, mind.

That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.

It could be the British people want to force Cameron and the EU to make a genuinely significant vow through real fear of Brexit..

I don't think so. There may have been some in Scotland who never really thought Yes would win and maybe didn't really want it either but wanted a good bargaining chip. In this case I think out means out.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Labour just do not have an answer to the immigration question.

Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Gordon Brown brought in to re-launch remain campaign, ends up picking fights with The Sun and BBC. Way to go.

Apparently it's not immigration that's the issue. It's illegal immigration. Kudos to his coaching staff; it must have been murder to stop him saying 'Tory illegal immigration'.

For 15 minutes OGH was Master of the Universe

GarethoftheVale2 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Labour just do not have an answer to the immigration question.

Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Gordon Brown brought in to re-launch remain campaign, ends up picking fights with The Sun and BBC. Way to go.

Does Brown have much appeal outside Scotland?

Presumably he is loved by goldbugs worldwide?

Guido now has Con MPs:

Remain 182
Leave 139
Not Declared 9

Was 180-140-10 after the Wollaston switch - so not sure who has switched and declared since then.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=450656551

Betfair moving NOW - Leave under 3 - looks like good poll for Leave.

MikeL said:

Betfair moving NOW - Leave under 3 - looks like good poll for Leave.

Very good for leave, wont post up the ICM poll until confirmed officially but just got a txt from a decent source.

Re ICM POLL

Would PB readers prefer

a) the wrong poll figures ASAP or

b) the right poll figures tomorrow?

If rumours are true WOOHOO

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Labour just do not have an answer to the immigration question.

Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Gordon Brown brought in to re-launch remain campaign, ends up picking fights with The Sun and BBC. Way to go.

Does Brown have much appeal outside Scotland?

Ahem. Couple of surplus words there.

I was going to say I'd not noticed his appeal here. Perhaps it's in Kirkaldy.

Maybe

Whit wey does the engine say 'Toot-toot'?
Is it feart to gang in the tunnel?
Whit wey is the furnace no pit oot
When the rain gangs doon the funnel?
What'll I hae for my tea the nicht?
A herrin', or maybe a haddie?
Has Gran'ma gotten electric licht?
Is the next stop Kirkcaddy?
There's a hoodie-craw on yon turnip-raw!
An' seagulls! - sax or seeven.
I'll no fa' oot o' the windae, Maw,
Its sneckit, as sure as I'm leevin'.
We're into the tunnel! we're a' in the dark!
But dinna be frichtit, Daddy,
We'll sune be comin' to Beveridge Park,
And the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

Is yon the mune I see in the sky?
It's awfu' wee an' curly,
See! there's a coo and a cauf ootbye,
An' a lassie pu'in' a hurly!
He's chackit the tickets and gien them back,
Sae gie me my ain yin, Daddy.
Lift doon the bag frae the luggage rack,
For the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

There's a gey wheen boats at the harbour mou',
And eh! dae ya see the cruisers?
The cinnamon drop I was sookin' the noo
Has tummelt an' stuck tae ma troosers. . .
I'll sune be ringin' ma Gran'ma's bell,
She'll cry, 'Come ben, my laddie',
For I ken mysel' by the queer-like smell
That the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

Brom said:

FrankBooth said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

Which market, mind.

That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.

It could be the British people want to force Cameron and the EU to make a genuinely significant vow through real fear of Brexit..

I don't think so. There may have been some in Scotland who never really thought Yes would win and maybe didn't really want it either but wanted a good bargaining chip. In this case I think out means out.

I agree. With Scotland I think there were some Scots who voted patriotically but deep down saw the UK as stable and a safer option. Now people are looking at Europe and see a complete mess, though many leavers like myself look at a new global era for the UK a lot of undecided voters will see retreating from the EU as a safer option in than continuing to put up with the chaos.

It is a bit disingenuous to suggest that we would somehow be any more immune to chaos inside the EU if we voted to leave, especially if we we caused it! I voted to remain in the UK in the Indy Ref, and I am now firmly voting to remain in the EU because I don't want to risk the very economic instability and security issues that our leaving would cause across Europe.

PlatoSaid said:

Jungleland said:

MikeL said:

Betfair moving NOW - Leave under 3 - looks like good poll for Leave.

Very good for leave, wont post up the ICM poll until confirmed officially but just got a txt from a decent source.

Argh, Don passim used to have superb insider scoops.

You can find the purported numbers on Twitter.

MP_SE said:

If rumours are true WOOHOO

Which ones?

FrankBooth said:

Mortimer said:

I'm seeing some rumour herding on twitter.

Will this be TDTPT?

The day the polls.......?

Trembled?

Tittered?

Tumbled?

Tumulted?

I don't think you should believe anything that doesn't come from ICM, directly.

5% lead for Leave with ICM phone should see Leave become favourite IMHO

Just a gentle remind that months of polls were wrong at the General Election.

Edited extra bit: +er

Morris_Dancer said:

Just a gentle remind that months of polls were wrong at the General Election.

Edited extra bit: +er

Those were the days when the polls demonstrated more or less the same thing!!

Jungleland's source should be OK bearing in mind his (Jungleland) day job.

Of course Caveat Emptor/DYOR and all that jazz.

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Labour just do not have an answer to the immigration question.

Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Gordon Brown brought in to re-launch remain campaign, ends up picking fights with The Sun and BBC. Way to go.

Does Brown have much appeal outside Scotland?

Ahem. Couple of surplus words there.

I was going to say I'd not noticed his appeal here. Perhaps it's in Kirkaldy.

Maybe

Whit wey does the engine say 'Toot-toot'?
Is it feart to gang in the tunnel?
Whit wey is the furnace no pit oot
When the rain gangs doon the funnel?
What'll I hae for my tea the nicht?
A herrin', or maybe a haddie?
Has Gran'ma gotten electric licht?
Is the next stop Kirkcaddy?
There's a hoodie-craw on yon turnip-raw!
An' seagulls! - sax or seeven.
I'll no fa' oot o' the windae, Maw,
Its sneckit, as sure as I'm leevin'.
We're into the tunnel! we're a' in the dark!
But dinna be frichtit, Daddy,
We'll sune be comin' to Beveridge Park,
And the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

Is yon the mune I see in the sky?
It's awfu' wee an' curly,
See! there's a coo and a cauf ootbye,
An' a lassie pu'in' a hurly!
He's chackit the tickets and gien them back,
Sae gie me my ain yin, Daddy.
Lift doon the bag frae the luggage rack,
For the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

There's a gey wheen boats at the harbour mou',
And eh! dae ya see the cruisers?
The cinnamon drop I was sookin' the noo
Has tummelt an' stuck tae ma troosers. . .
I'll sune be ringin' ma Gran'ma's bell,
She'll cry, 'Come ben, my laddie',
For I ken mysel' by the queer-like smell
That the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

That's lovely.

I have no information but I'd love to move the Forex markets. I can see how trading could be quite addictive.

Mr. Midwinter, worth noting in an excellent book (The Political Punter, available at all good bookshops) it was written that some people in leadership contests backed themselves on the betting markets to try and create a narrative of momentum.

AnneJGP said:

DavidL said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

DavidL said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Labour just do not have an answer to the immigration question.

Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Gordon Brown brought in to re-launch remain campaign, ends up picking fights with The Sun and BBC. Way to go.

Does Brown have much appeal outside Scotland?

Ahem. Couple of surplus words there.

I was going to say I'd not noticed his appeal here. Perhaps it's in Kirkaldy.

Maybe

Whit wey does the engine say 'Toot-toot'?
Is it feart to gang in the tunnel?
Whit wey is the furnace no pit oot
When the rain gangs doon the funnel?
What'll I hae for my tea the nicht?
A herrin', or maybe a haddie?
Has Gran'ma gotten electric licht?
Is the next stop Kirkcaddy?
There's a hoodie-craw on yon turnip-raw!
An' seagulls! - sax or seeven.
I'll no fa' oot o' the windae, Maw,
Its sneckit, as sure as I'm leevin'.
We're into the tunnel! we're a' in the dark!
But dinna be frichtit, Daddy,
We'll sune be comin' to Beveridge Park,
And the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

Is yon the mune I see in the sky?
It's awfu' wee an' curly,
See! there's a coo and a cauf ootbye,
An' a lassie pu'in' a hurly!
He's chackit the tickets and gien them back,
Sae gie me my ain yin, Daddy.
Lift doon the bag frae the luggage rack,
For the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

There's a gey wheen boats at the harbour mou',
And eh! dae ya see the cruisers?
The cinnamon drop I was sookin' the noo
Has tummelt an' stuck tae ma troosers. . .
I'll sune be ringin' ma Gran'ma's bell,
She'll cry, 'Come ben, my laddie',
For I ken mysel' by the queer-like smell
That the next stop's Kirkcaddy!

That's lovely.

The queer-like smell wasn't Gordon Brown but the huge linoleum works that used to dominate the front of Kirkcaldy. I can just about remember it but its all gone now.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Midwinter, worth noting in an excellent book (The Political Punter, available at all good bookshops) it was written that some people in leadership contests backed themselves on the betting markets to try and create a narrative of momentum.

Surely no law abiding citizen would stoop so low?

rcs1000 said:

ooohhhh oohhh one minute

Idiot!

midwinter said:

Bizarrely if anything Remains been backed in the last 10 mins.

Bet365 continues to have Leave at 3.0 as does BetVictor, but I imagine the big money is going on the exchange.

Boom!

And a hush falls over the stadium.....