Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
CROSSOVER!!!!!
When will Leave on Betfair approach a 50% chance? If a 6% Leave lead on Gold Standard ICM doesn't do it what will?
Feels at the moment like Leave could poll 60% in Sunderland on June 23 and we'll still see Remain as Betfair overwhelming favourite.
It's insane. A 6 percent lead with the Gold Standard and still 7/4 on bf. Got to be the value bet of all time. Hasn't it?
No one can quite believe it. Not even those who want to. It will be the biggest kick up the jacksie the establishment of this country has had since...well when? Maybe 1945?
Can anyone calculate what the Leave lead would have been with the original non-f'ked about ICM methodology, please?
Or..not really?
After last year's polling fiasco I always look at the unweighted figures - and they seem to give a clear lead for Remain if I'm reading them properly (and a 5% lead for Labour). I'm no longer sure I believe any figures about politics (or the economy, immigration, EU contribution....)
Did the EU negotiators offer Cameron so little because they thought we'd vote Remain anyway? Or was it because, if they had to choose between the UK leaving and the UK getting more concessions, they really preferred to see the UK go?
If it was the first, it could have been the biggest misjudgement in the history of the EU.
Well, Dave told them we'd stay whatever deal he got....
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
But still. Just ten days from the vote and BREXIT is SIX points ahead, in a PHONE POLL, with GOLD STANDARD ICM
wHODABLOODYTHUNK IT?
The government must be in full on Chernobyl mode. They're gonna need some kind of Vow on migration. Otherwise they are headed for defeat.
Yup. Oh to be a fly on the wall in Downing Street tonight.
"There was something of stolid resignation about them all, as if they walked half in another world between lines of nameless guards to a certain and familiar doom."
I think they have seen this coming, there has been a whiff of panic in the air the last week or so. That last minute press briefing jobby he (Cameron) did on the tall building, strangely reminded me of Ed dashing to see Russell Brand.
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
CROSSOVER!!!!!
When will Leave on Betfair approach a 50% chance? If a 6% Leave lead on Gold Standard ICM doesn't do it what will?
Feels at the moment like Leave could poll 60% in Sunderland on June 23 and we'll still see Remain as Betfair overwhelming favourite.
It's insane. A 6 percent lead with the Gold Standard and still 7/4 on bf. Got to be the value bet of all time. Hasn't it?
No one can quite believe it. Not even those who want to. It will be the biggest kick up the jacksie the establishment of this country has had since...well when? Maybe 1945?
Isn't this just bad betting now though? Remain have only been ahead in 5 of the last 16 published polls, you have to bet on Leave surely?
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
CROSSOVER!!!!!
When will Leave on Betfair approach a 50% chance? If a 6% Leave lead on Gold Standard ICM doesn't do it what will?
Feels at the moment like Leave could poll 60% in Sunderland on June 23 and we'll still see Remain as Betfair overwhelming favourite.
It's insane. A 6 percent lead with the Gold Standard and still 7/4 on bf. Got to be the value bet of all time. Hasn't it?
No one can quite believe it. Not even those who want to. It will be the biggest kick up the jacksie the establishment of this country has had since...well when? Maybe 1945?
Isn't this just bad betting now though? Remain have only been ahead in 5 of the last 16 published polls, you have to bet on Leave surely?
And you are still getting odds against. Incredible.
It can avoid hyperbole (fat chance) and stick to the unexciting but persuasive case to Remain a member of the EU.
They haven't even tried to make a positive case so far, Mr. Topping (and I agree there is one that could be made) probably a bit late to start now.
Cameron may yet squeak home, but he has might a right pig's breakfast of this issue and caused a lot of needless trouble for his party. Win or lose he will, I think, begone this year taking his sidekick with him and leaving a fearful mess for his successor to try and clear up.
Yes some of the claims have made me cringe. Perhaps it's only primary colours, however, that the electorate responds to. Which would be a shame if true, albeit not a particular revelation.
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
CROSSOVER!!!!!
When will Leave on Betfair approach a 50% chance? If a 6% Leave lead on Gold Standard ICM doesn't do it what will?
Feels at the moment like Leave could poll 60% in Sunderland on June 23 and we'll still see Remain as Betfair overwhelming favourite.
It's insane. A 6 percent lead with the Gold Standard and still 7/4 on bf. Got to be the value bet of all time. Hasn't it?
No one can quite believe it. Not even those who want to. It will be the biggest kick up the jacksie the establishment of this country has had since...well when? Maybe 1945?
I wasn't alive then but IMHO the establishment needs it +++++ more now.
Thursday's ITV debate was the f...ing disaster Angela Eagle pronounced it to be at the time. An SNP leader toxic to Tory voters, a Labour tribalist plus a demented Amber Rudd up against an urbane and considered Leave team - who thought that was a good idea?
Angela Eagle is a good judge and has her feet on the ground.
It would be interesting to hear from her what in particular was bad about the REMAIN performance that night. Perhaps the persoanl attacks on Boris rather than addressing policies?
I think we must all brace ourselves for another tearful "vow".
What can he try & sell? He went to speak to the big boss lady & got nothing.
From what I can gather, Mr Cameron actually refused the offer of something that would have suited the voters very well. Some sort of associate membership?
What is the source for this?
If Cameron loses the referendum you can see him staying on to try to engineer 'associate' membership.
Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.
We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.
This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating
He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
He seems to know his English mind you
And is yet content to live amongst us awful Engish, rather than amongst the midges of his beloved Scotland. Odd.
Comments
Would explain the surprising organisation of the Russian hooligans. [removes tinfoil titfer]
Dave saying pensioners will suffer --> Leave lead increases
SamCam penning an article --> Leave lead increases
Germans saying you'll be sorry! --> Leave lead increases
Gordon Brown wheeled out --> Leave lead increases
Ed Miliband wheeled out --> Leave lead increases
George Osborne saying mortgages will rise --> Leave lead increases
Andrea Leadsom all over the media --> Leave lead increases
At the rate things are going he's going to 'dock' it in the same way Blair's devolution killed Scottish nationalism stone dead.
If remain win he will legislate for an emergency lever, which if pulled automatically dumps Osborne's head down the nearest toilet.
That last minute press briefing jobby he (Cameron) did on the tall building, strangely reminded me of Ed dashing to see Russell Brand.
ICM poll - % of voters "certain to vote"
Leave voters: 83%
Remain voters: 76%
#Brexit
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Hugely encouraging for Leave but do we believe the pollsters anymore?
Edinburgh ....... 2/1
Cambridge ....... 4/1
Oxford ............ 4/1
Islington ......... 6/1
Hackney ........... 6/1
Aren't the precise geographical areas of at least some rather too vague to enable the percentages to be ascertained exactly?
It would be interesting to hear from her what in particular was bad about the REMAIN performance that night. Perhaps the persoanl attacks on Boris rather than addressing policies?
What is the source for this?
If Cameron loses the referendum you can see him staying on to try to engineer 'associate' membership.