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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Labour MPs have been reading their Macbeth. If i

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,521
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    Opinium for the Express

    39% Leave
    13% Leave and EFTA
    33% Remain

    It's been discussed. If you read the questions, it was a bit of a push-poll, tbh.
    I'd interpret that as 54 LEAVE 46 REMAIN (Strip out the middle)
    You can't really interpret it any way at all. The people in the middle might break 95% for Remain if they care about not risking the single market.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Miss Plato, maybe the scattergun is to give them the most chance of getting it right (once, at least).

    Mr. D, that's for PC gamers, as I understand it. Console peasants have to pay.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,521

    FF43 said:


    Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.

    I agree and am strongly for Remain.

    The more rational Leavers who wish to retain a relationship with the EU via staying in the EEA do have a blind spot about how Brexit would itself change the geometry of European politics. EFTA in its present form would not survive the UK attempting to use it as a means to claim squatters' rights to stay in the EEA.
    Of course it would. The big difference between the EU and EFTA is that the latter does not require its members to follow common rules on anything but trade. Nor can any individual country be outvoted. It is a completely different dynamic to the EU.
    But the raison d'etre of EFTA is access to the EEA of which the EU is the dominant part. If the EU doesn't like that arrangement it can, over time, make sure it doesn't go on that way.
    No it can't. The EEA agreement is bound by treaty. Unless they want to break the treaty entirely there is really nothing they can do about it.
    You probably think that's 'inconceivable'. It isn't.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: ICM online has LEAVE 4% ahead
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,987
    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead

    I give up with the polls. No idea what's happening at all.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043
    edited June 2016
    Game changers! The Day The Polls Turned! etc
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,912
    ICM again showing that ICM is nonsense!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RoyalBlue said:

    Glad to see I'm not the only one who's wasted the day thanks to ICM/the Guardian.

    10 more sleeps until 23 June...

    I can't decide what to do on 23rd to balance up a win or lose buffet. What's the right mix of comfort vs celebratory snack?

    I'll get in the bubbly whatever the result - and if it's Brexit, will paint myself with woad too. If not, I'll get totally sloshed and fall asleep on the sofa.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: Both ICM phone and online polls have REMAIN in better position compared with last time
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead

    Wow ...... if true, that sounds virtually like game over.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    The online/phone conundrum continues.
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    Why is everyone linking to guardian article from 16th May for ICM poll???
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126
    ICM covering all bases!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,095
    ICM will be able to say they were right, whatever the outcome.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Todaysopinionis: ICM POLL PHONE 47% REMAIN 39% LEAVE

    ICM ONLINE POLL 43% REMAIN 47% LEAVE
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,521
    Hurrah for Alexander Graham Bell. Boo to Tim Berners-Lee.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. Putney, it was Mr. Royale, not me.

    ICM's bouncier than a hippo on a trampoline.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HA

    @MSmithsonPB: CORRECTION No ICM figures yet.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,950
    Leave out to 3.3 on BF
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043
    HOLD FIRE - I THINK SOMEONE'S PROVIDED MIKE WITH OLD POLLS
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2016
    OMG FFS
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    roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Last night there was a EU debate organised by the Points West team with three Remainers and three Leavers on the panel. The audience was evenly divided between Remain and Leave.Not one person changed their minds after listening to the debate. Graham Watson for Remain was very competent and coped very well with every question. Jacob Rees Mogg was equally fluent for the Leave side. Billy Bragg was very animated and effective in promoting Remain. Christine Hamilton was on the Leave panel! The last Remain panel member had been a High Sheriff in Bristol and she answered every question with quiet authority. The final Leave panel member was nervous and lacking in any real knowledge of the topics.

    The members of the audience who favoured Remain were diverse and included IT specialists, business people and a farmer who was very worried about how he would sell his lamb if we decided to leave Europe.The Aerospace person was worried about the impact to the West Country economy of an exit and a loss of co-operation with other European countries.

    Some of the Leave audience members were very loud and obviously felt that shouting people down was the best way to get their message across.However one woman made a plea for her Polish friend to be allowed to remain.

    I watched the programme and felt that any undecided voters would have seen some very sound reasons to vote REMAIN on June 23rd. Watch it and see if you agree.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043
    Fuck's sake.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Charles said:

    Mortimer said:

    MP_SE said:

    This is truly horrible.

    I have done no work for 2 hours, other than literally shuffling papers across the desk.

    No wonder productivity numbers are so weak...
    To be fair you sell books.

    If you weren't shifting paper, I'd be worried!
    :-)
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    These are 16th of May's figures!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    WTF
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    Mr. Putney, it was Mr. Royale, not me.

    ICM's bouncier than a hippo on a trampoline.

    Ah, that explains it, he was hopelessly wrong on the Dewsbury numbers too!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    And with that - I'm off to watch S5 Hell on Wheels.

    Highly recommended. S1-4 are on Amazon Prime.

    EDIT WTH?
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Wow DRAMA. Polls redacted.
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    With this being the wrong poll... Fill your boots on betfair...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043
    SeanT said:

    HOLD FIRE - I THINK SOMEONE'S PROVIDED MIKE WITH OLD POLLS

    WHAT?????

    lol!!!!!!!

    Mike Smithson's brain has been HACKED

    Someone gave him links to the May 16th polls.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    I CANT TAKE THUIS SNFJ!!!!!!111!!!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126
    :o a day that will live in infamy!
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Britain-Elects saying ICM rumoured figures are from May....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043
    I think I might go and have an alcohol based drink now.

    Mango juice won't cut it
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,824
    So there never was an ICM poll due?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Scott_P said:

    @Todaysopinionis: ICM POLL PHONE 47% REMAIN 39% LEAVE

    ICM ONLINE POLL 43% REMAIN 47% LEAVE

    Ignoring Don't Knows gives us - Phone Poll 54.65 Remain 45.35 Leave. Online Poll 47.78 Remain Leave 52.22.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    RobD said:

    :o a day that will live in infamy!

    Leave do think that Cammo's got it inforthem!
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    :o a day that will live in infamy!

    I'm glad all my bets are on US elections!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    At least today has demonstrated how well everyone has moved on from obsessing over polls following last year's election.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,095
    I hope someone didn't bet the ranch on the back of this.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    :o a day that will live in infamy!

    THE DAY THE POLLS TURNED, THEN THEY DIDN'T
    Quite! LOL
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043

    So there never was an ICM poll due?

    There is an ICM poll due, possibly two.

    Martin Boon's confirmed that he's working on the figures for The Guardian
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    I think I might go and have an alcohol based drink now.

    Mango juice won't cut it

    Same.

    The stress of waiting is quite painful.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,045
    That is genuinely unbelievable. Maybe the markets had the same dodgy info. Shows just what a big deal this referendum is.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    So there never was an ICM poll due?

    No there is an ICM poll due... since 12.30!
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    I make it over 100k matched in the last 10 mins :-)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126

    At least today has demonstrated how well everyone has moved on from obsessing over polls following last year's election.

    Polling addicts....
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,824
    Sean_F said:

    I hope someone didn't bet the ranch on the back of this.

    I hope they did. It will teach them not to be a tosspot.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Incidentally, my point about bouncy polls still stands.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,095
    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Billions of pounds may have been traded on the back of Mike's tweet.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,072
    Trump at 1.06 on Betfair for GOP nominee - Looks quite big to me 6% return in just over a month ^_~ stuck my remaining £30.55 on on Betfair anyway...

    F*ck knows with ICM !
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,098
    That was the poll that wasn't?

    I'm Ed Miliband and I'm calling for an inquiry.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126
    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Now where is that Emperor Palpatine "unlimited power" gif?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043
    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    OGH can collapse capitalism if he feels in the mood :smiley:
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    ttps://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    A lot of pissed of punters now.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.
    I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Mr. 1983, betting on information is rational.

    There was only a brief window when Verstappen was 250/1 to win the Spanish Grand Prix. It was a case of bet swiftly, or miss out (well, get a 40/1 winner...).
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,678
    edited June 2016
    AA Gill writes brilliantly on restaurants and as a tv critic. Of course, like many restaurant critics who write brilliantly, this doesn't mean he knows anything about anything other than restaurants (Jan Moir and Giles Coren spring to mind as being asinine on current affairs).

    And as for their restaurant criticism, it is in the beauty of the writing that they excel. It's not as if they have better or more refined taste buds that can determine, better than you or I could, whether a steak here is better than a steak there.

    Or an Italian wine over a french one, either, to pick a random example.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,095
    chestnut said:

    OGH can collapse capitalism if he feels in the mood :smiley:

    He's as powerful as Ernest Stavro Blofeld.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126

    That is genuinely unbelievable. Maybe the markets had the same dodgy info. Shows just what a big deal this referendum is.

    Shows they don't have any inside info :D
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Todaysopinionis: ICM POLL PHONE 47% REMAIN 39% LEAVE

    ICM ONLINE POLL 43% REMAIN 47% LEAVE

    Ignoring Don't Knows gives us - Phone Poll 54.65 Remain 45.35 Leave. Online Poll 47.78 Remain Leave 52.22.
    Mathematically it is inappropriate in general to produce more significant figures in your output than was provided in your input. You can not provide a percentage to four significant figures extrapolating from a number originally rounded to 2 significant figures. You are introducing an error.

    Based on the numbers if the poll real you should say Remain 55, Leave 45 versus Remain 48, Leave 52.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    I can't cope with 10 more days of this. Shall we settle it on a coin flip then go to the pub?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,796
    edited June 2016
    Only one word in the political lexicon to describe OGH mistake....omnishambles!!!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,276

    These are 16th of May's figures!

    These are exactly the same as 16th May. I just googled it.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,072
    "Your Trade Choice ‏@Yourtradechoice 1m1 minute ago
    #Trading #GBPUSD La #LIBRA se ubica en mínimos de 2 meses ante la incertidumbre del referendún #BREXIT en unos dias"
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043

    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.
    I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?
    I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.

    Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,521
    chestnut said:

    OGH can collapse capitalism if he feels in the mood :smiley:

    There should be a law against outsider trading.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    ICM are not coming out of this in glory cant they just tweet sorry for delay likely publication time early evening
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Britain Elects states NO repeat NO poll has yet been published.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043
    SeanT said:

    It must be weird being Mike. Trillions of dollars react to his daily movements.

    If he sneezes, emerging markets go into deep recession.

    He's in Spain, he's wanting to get more Euros for his money.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,276

    Mr. Putney, it was Mr. Royale, not me.

    ICM's bouncier than a hippo on a trampoline.

    I just retweeted - that's all.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,052
    Has Mike had too much Sun and Sangria? ;)
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,912
    TOPPING said:

    AA Gill writes brilliantly on restaurants and as a tv critic. .

    His Winnie-the-Pooh books are pretty good too.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Oh, now I get it. This is what Donald Tusk was talking about.
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    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Ah, but can he restore the Nikkei 225 overnight?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,432
    ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

    Which market, mind.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,432
    5pm release
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,276
    SeanT said:

    @minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
    ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
    #Brexit

    Is that an informed source?

    Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.
    I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?
    I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.

    Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.
    That surely would be some form of insider trading if you did?
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    I've been out all afternoon. Rather than scroll through hundreds of posts can someone just explain quickly what has happened? Ta muchly.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126

    SeanT said:

    @minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
    ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
    #Brexit

    Is that an informed source?

    Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.
    At least that one was timed to perfection by Big Ben!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,072
    Arf some big hitter just scooped about £3k on Trump at 1.06, right after I mentioned it here :D
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,126
    Estobar said:

    I've been out all afternoon. Rather than scroll through hundreds of posts can someone just explain quickly what has happened? Ta muchly.

    Bit of a snafu...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    SeanT said:

    @minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
    ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
    #Brexit

    Is that an informed source?

    Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.
    Will it be as pleasurable?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    GIN1138 said:

    Has Mike had too much Sun and Sangria? ;)

    Maybe he's being held hostage by a criminal betting syndicate.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    rcs1000 said:

    ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

    Which market, mind.

    http://www.brightonopenmarket.co.uk/market-hours/

    ?
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    John_M said:

    Oh, now I get it. This is what Donald Tusk was talking about.

    Western Civilization to end officially at 1701. :)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,043

    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.
    I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?
    I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.

    Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.
    That surely would be some form of insider trading if you did?
    The thing is the markets do move, when other people do have the same embargoed polls.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    SeanT said:

    Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON

    He actually shifted the FOREX market

    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969

    Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.
    I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?
    I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.

    Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.
    That surely would be some form of insider trading if you did?
    Well it's obvious they'd be in breach of their contract with the polling company. Whether there are criminal sanctions, I don't know. None obviously springs to mind, but he who skates on thin ice...
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    @minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
    ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
    #Brexit

    Is that an informed source?

    Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.
    At least that one was timed to perfection by Big Ben!
    Ever had that all encompassing feeling of being part of a crowd cheering a try, a horse, etc. The one where you're cheering so loud and living so much in the moment that you worry you've had a stroke? I was all on my own for 10pm last May, and still had that feeling on the publication of the exit poll.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

    Which market, mind.

    Why????? We've not had this with polls before. Perhaps they are reacting to what has happened before. No doubt conspiracists will claim that the Guardian have been in contact with No.10 and they've decided to hush it up.

    Whilst everyone is bored you can get 13/8 on Belgium to beat Italy. As much as I love all things Italian this is quite possibly the worst football team they have ever had. On paper (at least) Belgium look class.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,052
    Inside Downing St. They wait for ICM....

    David Cameron: "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking..."
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    EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.

    Which market, mind.

    That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?

    Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

    I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.

    I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.
    Seeing how No.10 has been behaving It's more likely that they are the ones hyping up a mildly unfavourable poll (e.g. 1 or 2% Leave lead) in order to manage expectations.
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    SeanT said:

    @minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
    ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
    #Brexit

    Is that an informed source?

    Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.
    Will it be as pleasurable?
    You mean as regards Pantsdown's hat et al?
This discussion has been closed.