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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Labour MPs have been reading their Macbeth. If i

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Wow.

    Betdaq have LEAVE at 6/4

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

    I've no idea who Betdaq are or is, but those are the tightest LEAVE odds yet, I believe.

    It's owned by Ladbrokes.
    7% market share of the betting exchanges which still makes it the 2nd biggest.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,546
    edited June 2016
    In answer to the posh retirees for leave comment, I'm sure that's true, but lower middle class (at best), public sector worker right here for leave. Voted LD three GEs in a row too, deep in the Tory shires admittedly.
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    I was handed a Labour Remain leaflet at Snaresbrook tube in East London last week. It was covered with photos and quotes from various worthies supporting an In vote. Jeremy Corbyn was not mentioned on any of the 4 pages.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,120
    rcs1000 said:

    Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

    Excuse me. I am neither a posh boy nor a retiree. Comprehensive schooled from a working class/Lower Middle Class background who runs his own business. If anything I am a complete oik.
    As far as I'm concerned, if you're not an ex-homeless heroin addict, then - frankly - you're a toff.
    You're not going all "Four Yorkshiremen" on me are you?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,120
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    @yxfpmsveeijci
    @GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

    Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...
    Um. Its a joke. Leavers online... Leaves on the line... delays. :-)
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    .

    CoHome are doing a campaign diary from Remain and Leave campaigns.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/eu-referendum-campaign-diaries-week-3-shy-leavers-emerge-as-do-remain-councillors-as-the-big-decision-approaches.html

    The Remain guy, Andrew Marshall, is just brilliant. He manages to convey Remain's complacency, snobbery, and elitist' piggy snout troughery' all in the same paragraph.

    How about this for a quote "Alistair Burt MP was also with us, as was a relaxed-looking Andrew Lansley. We were on the marvellous and rather plush ConservativesIn battle bus, including a rather high-tech coffee machine. A good investment by ConservativesIn. The mood was pretty good in Cambridge, though as elsewhere with a big skew by age and (apparent) education. "

    Please give Mr Marshall a more prominent campaigning role in Remain. We need more from this man.

    :lol:

    Cambridge!
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    CoHome are doing a campaign diary from Remain and Leave campaigns.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/eu-referendum-campaign-diaries-week-3-shy-leavers-emerge-as-do-remain-councillors-as-the-big-decision-approaches.html

    The Remain guy, Andrew Marshall, is just brilliant. He manages to convey Remain's complacency, snobbery, and elitist' piggy snout troughery' all in the same paragraph.

    How about this for a quote "Alistair Burt MP was also with us, as was a relaxed-looking Andrew Lansley. We were on the marvellous and rather plush ConservativesIn battle bus, including a rather high-tech coffee machine. A good investment by ConservativesIn. The mood was pretty good in Cambridge, though as elsewhere with a big skew by age and (apparent) education. "

    Please give Mr Marshall a more prominent campaigning role in Remain. We need more from this man.

    Lol. They really do come across as completely out of touch with the rest of the country.
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    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    Southam Observer- sorry you haven't seen much campaigning activity. Not sure what is going on in Leamington Spa.
    I am happy to canvass you now if it helps and will happily post you a leaflet!
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Cookie said:

    I think I live in a black hole. Reading about all this canvassing activity makes me wonder what on earth is happening around here in what I imagine is a pretty split area (Leamington Spa). No leaflets, no canvassers, not even stalls in the main shopping areas, nothing. Are we the exception here?

    So far, in Sale, over the last eight weeks, I've seen:
    one stall in the main shopping street (leave)
    One poster (Remain)
    Two leaflets through our door (Leave)
    No canvassers

    It's all a lot less than for the general election, even in a fairly safe seat which was never likely to influence the result, there was 4-5 times as much campaigning as there has been for the referendum.
    yeah nothing here in Ealing North either?? Turnout won't be 70%. I'm guessing 65%?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,091
    weejonnie said:

    Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.

    Tipping point....
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Plato said- "As we near the business end of the campaign there has been an enormous rise in the number of people signing up to volunteer. As I write this, there are 709 people who have gone to the trouble of pledging their support or ability to help with campaigning in Newham. That is an increase of nearly 200 in one week in just one borough. I am told this is being repeated across London and the entire country."

    I wasn't needed on our Vote Leave stand as they were too many people wanting to do it!

    Just finished the morning delivery. Feeling very positive about the final two weeks.

    Now's the time to lend every shoulder to the wheel. If you are for Leave, please volunteer. Every leaflet delivered and door knocked takes us one step nearer to getting our country back.

    It's our country too, don't forget.

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme. It reminds me of the equally nauseating "it's our NHS" spiel used by Labour in 2015.
    Most Remain voters are just as proud of their country and think it's more likely to succeed without playing Russian roulette with the economy. I couldn't give a flyer about Europe but think we're safer in currently.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Microsoft buying LinkedIn for $26.2bn. Couldn’t it have just joined its professional network or endorsed it for something?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    Hey! I've been saying that for ages. If it is a close vote then it wouldn't be fair to ignore the 49% of people who voted for remain. I've been told time and again that any politicians who did would be accused of being quisling traitors.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    when is this icm poll coming?
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    MP_SE said:

    CoHome are doing a campaign diary from Remain and Leave campaigns.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/06/eu-referendum-campaign-diaries-week-3-shy-leavers-emerge-as-do-remain-councillors-as-the-big-decision-approaches.html

    The Remain guy, Andrew Marshall, is just brilliant. He manages to convey Remain's complacency, snobbery, and elitist' piggy snout troughery' all in the same paragraph.

    How about this for a quote "Alistair Burt MP was also with us, as was a relaxed-looking Andrew Lansley. We were on the marvellous and rather plush ConservativesIn battle bus, including a rather high-tech coffee machine. A good investment by ConservativesIn. The mood was pretty good in Cambridge, though as elsewhere with a big skew by age and (apparent) education. "

    Please give Mr Marshall a more prominent campaigning role in Remain. We need more from this man.

    Lol. They really do come across as completely out of touch with the rest of the country.
    And funniest of all he is canvassing in Cambridge. Where Lab, Lib Dem & Green account for about 80 per cent of the vote. Why send a Tory there?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,018
    edited June 2016
    weejonnie said:

    Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.

    More massive movement. Leave goes from 2.96 to 3

    :wink:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,738
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Microsoft buying LinkedIn for $26.2bn. Couldn’t it have just joined its professional network or endorsed it for something?

    Bonkers....how many years do we give it before they kill it? They have done a great job of burying Skype....
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    Hey! I've been saying that for ages. If it is a close vote then it wouldn't be fair to ignore the 49% of people who voted for remain. I've been told time and again that any politicians who did would be accused of being quisling traitors.
    The same, of course, applies the other way . . .
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    MaxPB said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    Hey! I've been saying that for ages. If it is a close vote then it wouldn't be fair to ignore the 49% of people who voted for remain. I've been told time and again that any politicians who did would be accused of being quisling traitors.
    Don't tell @Indigo!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

    Excuse me. I am neither a posh boy nor a retiree. Comprehensive schooled from a working class/Lower Middle Class background who runs his own business. If anything I am a complete oik.
    As far as I'm concerned, if you're not an ex-homeless heroin addict, then - frankly - you're a toff.
    with a squat in St. John's Wood and a dealer in Holland Park...?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038
    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,718

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    Well, yes, I agree. I'd add that the Remainers have spent the last 40 years quietly ignoring the views of the leavers. That's what got us into this mess in the first place.

    Actually, I've just re-read this, and it sounds unnecessarily barbed, particularly as you, SO, have been REMAINing consistently politely over the last few weeks. I don't mean to be rude. Both sides need to remember that away from the margins, this needn't be a great clash of cultures; just two different strategies for achieving the best for the British people that neither side can be 100% sure of being right about.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sterling just spiked, guess good news for Remain.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    @yxfpmsveeijci
    @GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

    Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...
    I think it's a riff on delays due to 'leaves on the line'
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    Hey! I've been saying that for ages. If it is a close vote then it wouldn't be fair to ignore the 49% of people who voted for remain. I've been told time and again that any politicians who did would be accused of being quisling traitors.
    The same, of course, applies the other way . . .
    I agree. I think the David Cameron government should have gone into the negotiation with a plan to produce the 70% settlement - the deal that would have been acceptable to the largest portion of the population.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,352

    Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

    Excuse me. I am neither a posh boy nor a retiree. Comprehensive schooled from a working class/Lower Middle Class background who runs his own business. If anything I am a complete oik.
    Apologies - I never really think of you as a true Leaver. (You always seem a bit half-hearted.)
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,237
    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
    Exactly. And that's a perfectly sane and rational move.

    I just hope we get it (hope that kills you.. Etc.)
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921
    edited June 2016

    Pong said:
    It wasn't the fact it was Bruges Group commissioned. Opinium would not allow their name to be sullied by leading questions or being influenced by who asked for the poll.

    What destroys it is the fact that the Express reported it with no weighting or basic corrections as if it were a real poll result. It is no wonder Opinium were somewhat annoyed
    This is the 240 word question from the Bruges Group poll. The Express combined (A) and (B) responses to get to the spurious 19% Leave lead figure. I am suspicious of polls with very involved questions because they steer the repondents too much (and quite possibly lose them too)> Also I don't think they summarised the options accurately

    There are a number of options for trading with EU countries:

    The Single Market allows for free movement of goods, services, people and capital between all participating European countries.

    ·Being part of the EU and its Single Market (which the UK is in now)
    ·Being part of the Single Market via the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) like Norway
    ·Having a separate Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU Single Market like that being negotiated between Canada and the EU

    EU and Single Market
    Abides by all rules
    Free movement of people in the EU
    Net contribution of £8.5bn per year
    Votes in all decision-making bodies of the EU

    European Free Trade Association and Single Market
    Exempt from rules on agriculture, fisheries, home affairs and justice policies
    Free movement of people in the EU
    Net contribution of £5bn per year
    Members are consulted on new rules

    Free Trade Agreement
    Exempt from all EU rules except those we agree to as part of the agreement
    No free movement of people
    No financial contribution
    No votes in decision-making bodies

    With this in mind, which arrangement would you prefer to access the Single Market?

    (A) Remain in the EU and Remain in the Single Market (European Union/Single Market)
    (B) Leave the EU, join EFTA, Remain in the Single Market (European Free Trade Association/Single Market)
    (C) Leave the EU and have an FTA (Free Trade Agreement)
    (D) Don't Know

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

    Excuse me. I am neither a posh boy nor a retiree. Comprehensive schooled from a working class/Lower Middle Class background who runs his own business. If anything I am a complete oik.
    As far as I'm concerned, if you're not an ex-homeless heroin addict, then - frankly - you're a toff.
    with a squat in St. John's Wood and a dealer in Holland Park...?
    And bedding Ms Frostop. And Boris' sister or something.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    @yxfpmsveeijci
    @GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

    Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...
    I think it's a riff on delays due to 'leaves on the line'
    Thank you Charles for saving me from the feeling of knowing it's a joke but not getting it, which is where I was....
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    Hey! I've been saying that for ages. If it is a close vote then it wouldn't be fair to ignore the 49% of people who voted for remain. I've been told time and again that any politicians who did would be accused of being quisling traitors.
    The same, of course, applies the other way . . .
    Agreed, but in the other direction the EU holds the cards and having just voted to remain it would be seen by them as a green light for more integration and creating the EU army, even if we're not in it from the start.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    @yxfpmsveeijci
    @GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

    Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...
    I think it's a riff on delays due to 'leaves on the line'
    :smiley:
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,581
    I have been having a sabbatical but there can be no denying the trend at present is with leave. However, the markets and currencies are having a wobble, not least due to concerns in China and Japan, but listening to commentators on business media, including International media, there are increasing concerns about possible Brexit and investors hedging against a leave vote. If a few phone polls over the next few days confirm the trend to leave I believe the markets will react adversely and this adverse effect will be highlighted in the broadcast media and by the remain camp, almost certainly creating a desire to stick with the status quo. I understand both the Bank of England and the IMF are planning news conferences shortly to re-emphasise the dangers of leaving. For these reasons I do believe anything could happen next week. There is little or no activity in our area other than a few vote.leave poster boards and the activity is nowhere near that of a GE. I am not sure but the leavers on here are certainly energised but are they not more concentrated in the south where immigration is a big issue and understandably so.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,039
    My guess:

    ICM Online - LEAVE

    ICM Phone - REMAIN
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    PlatoSaid said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

    Excuse me. I am neither a posh boy nor a retiree. Comprehensive schooled from a working class/Lower Middle Class background who runs his own business. If anything I am a complete oik.
    As far as I'm concerned, if you're not an ex-homeless heroin addict, then - frankly - you're a toff.
    with a squat in St. John's Wood and a dealer in Holland Park...?
    And bedding Ms Frostop. And Boris' sister or something.
    Rachel? ewwwh!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038
    Cookie said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    Well, yes, I agree. I'd add that the Remainers have spent the last 40 years quietly ignoring the views of the leavers. That's what got us into this mess in the first place.

    Actually, I've just re-read this, and it sounds unnecessarily barbed, particularly as you, SO, have been REMAINing consistently politely over the last few weeks. I don't mean to be rude. Both sides need to remember that away from the margins, this needn't be a great clash of cultures; just two different strategies for achieving the best for the British people that neither side can be 100% sure of being right about.

    I agree. We have to get on with it post-Brexit. It's also a case that a lot of Remainers are pretty key to the ongoing health of the economy. They may be experts and corporatists and what have you, but they employ a lot of people and make a lot of business decisions. A deal that everyone can get behind and kills the debate except at the fringes would be in all our interests.

    As for me, only became a Remainer at the start of this campaign when I really began to think about it. Before that, I was pretty indifferent.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,018
    SeanT said:

    weejonnie said:

    Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.

    More massive movement. Leave goes from 2.96 to 3

    :wink:
    In fact the movement is now arguably in favour of REMAIN.

    ICM better than expected for INNERS?

    Or just random noise from frustrated punters?
    To be honest I think this market is bonkers. Just a few days ago Remain were 82% chance. Now we're back to the mid 60s.

    I think people are expecting a swing back to Remain on the day.

    So unless polls start showing LEAVE consistently 10% ahead the market will be skewed in favour of Remain.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    SeanT said:

    weejonnie said:

    Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.

    More massive movement. Leave goes from 2.96 to 3

    :wink:
    In fact the movement is now arguably in favour of REMAIN.

    ICM better than expected for INNERS?

    Or just random noise from frustrated punters?
    There are at least two more twists and turns in this referendum still to come.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,097
    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    Maybe, but it's Labour voters who are turning to Leave based on the immigration campaign, the Tories voting to leave were already there before Leave turned into the anti-immigration campaign.

    The Tories might get the blame but perversely it will be Labour who leak votes to UKIP.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

    Yes, it was an excellent article, I've just read it. @rcs1000 please pass on my thanks to the author.

    I have great sympathy with the difficulties such start-ups face and wish I were able to get involved in supporting them actively.

    But, for me, they don't trump the need for the UK government to be able to make laws that suit the people who live in the UK without being over-ruled from elsewhere with conflicting interests.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,018
    edited June 2016

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    That's up there with during the Indyref the CyberNats saying Cameron was keeping hidden the massive new oil reserves that Scotland has.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
    Exactly. And that's a perfectly sane and rational move.

    I just hope we get it (hope that kills you.. Etc.)
    As long as we keep Free mvmt I'd be happy with that - but it actually seems hardly different from staying in - except of course we're excluded from decision and discussion. It seems a huge amount of bother for little gain - most og the [to be fair] rabid Brexiteers I argue wit on FB are expecting a permanent ban on virtually all immigration - especially Muslims. They're gonna be really pi**ed if this is the outcome of a Leave vote.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,018
    @DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: So @LeaveEUOfficial take DOWN #Orlando tweet. Source tell me it was a junior member of staff who "over stepped the mark."
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    SeanT said:

    midwinter said:

    Plato said- "As we near the business end of the campaign there has been an enormous rise in the number of people signing up to volunteer. As I write this, there are 709 people who have gone to the trouble of pledging their support or ability to help with campaigning in Newham. That is an increase of nearly 200 in one week in just one borough. I am told this is being repeated across London and the entire country."

    I wasn't needed on our Vote Leave stand as they were too many people wanting to do it!

    Just finished the morning delivery. Feeling very positive about the final two weeks.

    Now's the time to lend every shoulder to the wheel. If you are for Leave, please volunteer. Every leaflet delivered and door knocked takes us one step nearer to getting our country back.

    It's our country too, don't forget.

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme. It reminds me of the equally nauseating "it's our NHS" spiel used by Labour in 2015.
    Most Remain voters are just as proud of their country and think it's more likely to succeed without playing Russian roulette with the economy. I couldn't give a flyer about Europe but think we're safer in currently.
    Er, many many people - not all of them stupid - feel their country's parliamentary sovereignty and rightful democracy has indeed been slowly but surely eroded away. And they want it back.

    You can dispute their opinion, but they are entitled to hold it.

    Yep I get that. I respect their opinions and agree with some of what they say, it's the phrase that gets to me. The faux impression of plucky patriots fighting against uncaring federalist robots. Which is nonsense.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,065
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    No sign of the ICM poll?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    ... really?
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Betfair moved out to 3.1 then 3.05 The suspense is killing - hope it lasts.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,718

    @DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: So @LeaveEUOfficial take DOWN #Orlando tweet. Source tell me it was a junior member of staff who "over stepped the mark."

    I can certainly believe that - aside from matters of taste, the syntax was clunky and awful.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    I think I live in a black hole. Reading about all this canvassing activity makes me wonder what on earth is happening around here in what I imagine is a pretty split area (Leamington Spa). No leaflets, no canvassers, not even stalls in the main shopping areas, nothing. Are we the exception here?

    No. I saw one Leave window poster in a neighbouring village last week, and one Remain ditto. That's all.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Yes.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,018
    More massive movement, ahem

    Leave out to 3.05 now
  • Options
    Scott_P said:


    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    the old i haven't got any agument against x so i'll pretend you mean y when you say x approach is seldom convincing.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    That's up there with during the Indyref the CyberNats saying Cameron was keeping hidden the massive new oil reserves that Scotland has.
    Secret oil discoveries were my favourite part if the IndyRef.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Yes.
    By confirming that having you broken the terms of the d-notice?
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SeanT said:

    Very strong rumours that ICM has healthy REMAIN lead

    Sterling has shot up

    Possibly - or someone planting them for financial gain.

    Is this for the Guardian?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,120
    FF43 said:

    Pong said:
    It wasn't the fact it was Bruges Group commissioned. Opinium would not allow their name to be sullied by leading questions or being influenced by who asked for the poll.

    What destroys it is the fact that the Express reported it with no weighting or basic corrections as if it were a real poll result. It is no wonder Opinium were somewhat annoyed
    This is the 240 word question from the Bruges Group poll. The Express combined (A) and (B) responses to get to the spurious 19% Leave lead figure. I am suspicious of polls with very involved questions because they steer the repondents too much (and quite possibly lose them too)> Also I don't think they summarised the options accurately

    There are a number of options for trading with EU countries:

    The Single Market allows for free movement of goods, services, people and capital between all participating European countries.

    ·Being part of the EU and its Single Market (which the UK is in now)
    ·Being part of the Single Market via the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) like Norway
    ·Having a separate Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU Single Market like that being negotiated between Canada and the EU

    EU and Single Market
    Abides by all rules
    Free movement of people in the EU
    Net contribution of £8.5bn per year
    Votes in all decision-making bodies of the EU

    European Free Trade Association and Single Market
    Exempt from rules on agriculture, fisheries, home affairs and justice policies
    Free movement of people in the EU
    Net contribution of £5bn per year
    Members are consulted on new rules

    Free Trade Agreement
    Exempt from all EU rules except those we agree to as part of the agreement
    No free movement of people
    No financial contribution
    No votes in decision-making bodies

    With this in mind, which arrangement would you prefer to access the Single Market?

    (A) Remain in the EU and Remain in the Single Market (European Union/Single Market)
    (B) Leave the EU, join EFTA, Remain in the Single Market (European Free Trade Association/Single Market)
    (C) Leave the EU and have an FTA (Free Trade Agreement)
    (D) Don't Know

    I am honestly amazed that Opinium allowed that sort of questioning. It is the closest I have seen in a long long time to the infamous Yes Prime minister poll clip.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,738
    edited June 2016
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/13/sky-news-homophobia-orlando-sexuality

    I see Kevin the Teenager is still struggling to put two and two together, and still quoting the terrorists father words as gospel. Douglas Murray went nuttso on him on twitter last night.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,091
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Yes.
    By confirming that having you broken the terms of the d-notice?
    Remind me, is that rule similar to the first rule of PB Moderation?..... titters
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    SeanT said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Imagine if a pollster as respected as ICM got a truly extraordinary result (esp via phone) - something like 58-42 LEAVE/REMAIN.

    It is arguable that this would be so explosive (especially after the 10 point LEAVE lead on Friday) the government would have a right to intervene, and delay its release, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

    I don't think this is what's happening, just saying it's not entirely impossible.
    Nah, I doubt that would happen. Given the market moves I expect it has Remain back in the lead with a 3-5 point swing.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,164
    You have to wonder how ICM secure their shit at times like this. Hack Martin Boon, fill your boots.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Scott_P said:


    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    the old i haven't got any agument against x so i'll pretend you mean y when you say x approach is seldom convincing.
    I like AA Gill, but his piece was very empty.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    He is almost as bad as Matthew Parris.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,097
    SeanT said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Imagine if a pollster as respected as ICM got a truly extraordinary result (esp via phone) - something like 58-42 LEAVE/REMAIN.

    It is arguable that this would be so explosive (especially after the 10 point LEAVE lead on Friday) the government would have a right to intervene, and delay its release, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

    I don't think this is what's happening, just saying it's not entirely impossible.
    I got round to reading Chris Mullin's A Very British Coup earlier this year. Good fun and felt rather sorry for Harry Perkins having to retire on health grounds. I've always wondered whether the alleged d-notice before the Iraq war was real.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    Not really

    http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/condorcet-paradox-work-rock-paper-scissors-eu-referendum
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Imagine if a pollster as respected as ICM got a truly extraordinary result (esp via phone) - something like 58-42 LEAVE/REMAIN.

    It is arguable that this would be so explosive (especially after the 10 point LEAVE lead on Friday) the government would have a right to intervene, and delay its release, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

    I don't think this is what's happening, just saying it's not entirely impossible.
    Nah, I doubt that would happen. Given the market moves I expect it has Remain back in the lead with a 3-5 point swing.
    A 3 point Remain lead on a phone poll wouldn't be good for Remain.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    He also shot a baboon IIRC - just to see how it felt.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    I can't speak for all Leavers, obviously, but I get so tired of this faux backward-looking, longing-for-Empire shit. It makes me positively irrational.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So far 3 people have rubbished AA Gill on this thread. Perhaps because they ascribe to this theory, also exposed in his article

    We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.

    Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,164

    FF43 said:

    Pong said:
    It wasn't the fact it was Bruges Group commissioned. Opinium would not allow their name to be sullied by leading questions or being influenced by who asked for the poll.

    What destroys it is the fact that the Express reported it with no weighting or basic corrections as if it were a real poll result. It is no wonder Opinium were somewhat annoyed
    This is the 240 word question from the Bruges Group poll. The Express combined (A) and (B) responses to get to the spurious 19% Leave lead figure. I am suspicious of polls with very involved questions because they steer the repondents too much (and quite possibly lose them too)> Also I don't think they summarised the options accurately

    There are a number of options for trading with EU countries:

    The Single Market allows for free movement of goods, services, people and capital between all participating European countries.

    ·Being part of the EU and its Single Market (which the UK is in now)
    ·Being part of the Single Market via the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) like Norway
    ·Having a separate Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU Single Market like that being negotiated between Canada and the EU

    EU and Single Market
    Abides by all rules
    Free movement of people in the EU
    Net contribution of £8.5bn per year
    Votes in all decision-making bodies of the EU

    European Free Trade Association and Single Market
    Exempt from rules on agriculture, fisheries, home affairs and justice policies
    Free movement of people in the EU
    Net contribution of £5bn per year
    Members are consulted on new rules

    Free Trade Agreement
    Exempt from all EU rules except those we agree to as part of the agreement
    No free movement of people
    No financial contribution
    No votes in decision-making bodies

    With this in mind, which arrangement would you prefer to access the Single Market?

    (A) Remain in the EU and Remain in the Single Market (European Union/Single Market)
    (B) Leave the EU, join EFTA, Remain in the Single Market (European Free Trade Association/Single Market)
    (C) Leave the EU and have an FTA (Free Trade Agreement)
    (D) Don't Know

    I am honestly amazed that Opinium allowed that sort of questioning. It is the closest I have seen in a long long time to the infamous Yes Prime minister poll clip.
    Right, then they act all shocked by how it's reported... Bills to pay, I suppose
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    He also shot a baboon IIRC - just to see how it felt.
    That's probably the best reason to shoot a baboon.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    He is almost as bad as Matthew Parris.
    I'd say Parris is ahead by several lengths. He's gone from being readable with quirks/an obsession about being gay - to snobby, rude sneering.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    @yxfpmsveeijci
    @GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

    Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...
    Took me a long time to get it, too.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Imagine if a pollster as respected as ICM got a truly extraordinary result (esp via phone) - something like 58-42 LEAVE/REMAIN.

    It is arguable that this would be so explosive (especially after the 10 point LEAVE lead on Friday) the government would have a right to intervene, and delay its release, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

    I don't think this is what's happening, just saying it's not entirely impossible.
    Nah, I doubt that would happen. Given the market moves I expect it has Remain back in the lead with a 3-5 point swing.
    A 3 point Remain lead on a phone poll wouldn't be good for Remain.
    No, it wouldn't. It would confirm the momentum continues to be towards Leave.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    Not really

    http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/condorcet-paradox-work-rock-paper-scissors-eu-referendum
    Huge logical flaw in that link. It assumes that EEA won't be the most popular form because it might not win against Remain. Except of course if leave wins then we're not remaining all the remainers would need to chose a new option and EEA would be it for a large number. Besides a lot are going for remain due to fear of change, once the change has happened, the fear is gone.

    EEA+ emergency break solves all problems.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    Not really

    http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/condorcet-paradox-work-rock-paper-scissors-eu-referendum
    I suspect it would capture maybe 55% of people, but they would be in the middle. Those that thought the EFTA went too far and those who think it doesn't go far enough would have nothing to unite on.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    Scott_P said:

    So far 3 people have rubbished AA Gill on this thread. Perhaps because they ascribe to this theory, also exposed in his article

    We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.

    Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

    I do like his turn of phrase. Positively SeanT like.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    That is a bit unfair. The poor man was once married to Amber Rudd.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

    The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,802

    Remains latest position on immigration seems to be it's not possible to reduce it so you'll all just have to accept it.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/brexit-will-not-mean-big-drop-in-immigration-hilary-benn-says

    I've seen this from the Remains here too. Might be good for keeping a few wobbly Leavers at home, but overall surely not a good sign that they've been pulled over on to their enemy's favoured battleground.

    That said, I concluded last night that Remain will win. Talking to a few of the 'younger generation' (I'm 33), they are just so bought into all this identity politics bullshit, and they will vote. Us 'right wing' people have been far too supine in getting our pov across to generation stupid.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SeanT said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    He also shot a baboon IIRC - just to see how it felt.
    He's an excellent prose stylist. But beyond restaurant criticism I wouldn't pay tuppence for his opinions, he is a paranoid hater by nature, bristling with contempt, especially for the English.

    Ex smack addict, too.
    Off smack and booze? No wonder he's so grumpy. I like his TV reviews.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,164
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

    The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
    Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    Not really

    http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/condorcet-paradox-work-rock-paper-scissors-eu-referendum
    Huge logical flaw in that link. It assumes that EEA won't be the most popular form because it might not win against Remain. Except of course if leave wins then we're not remaining all the remainers would need to chose a new option and EEA would be it for a large number. Besides a lot are going for remain due to fear of change, once the change has happened, the fear is gone.

    EEA+ emergency break solves all problems.
    Exactly what I was talking about in my previous post. It will doom any arrangement.

  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    That is a bit unfair. The poor man was once married to Amber Rudd.
    Holy Hell! :mask:
  • Options
    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    Sorry if my 'get our country back phrase' has riled you midwinter.

    However the image of plucky patriots fighting uncaring federalist robots is anything but faux.

    Contrast. I am spending my time hand delivering hundreds of Vote Leave leaflets which provide information about the EU and why my team believes those facts support a vote to Leave. My leaflets say they are from the Leave campaign.

    The remain side by contrast sent out their information leaflet equally as partisan yet(branded as Her Majesty's Government, to every house in the country at tax payers expense.

    Forgive me my phrase but Leave is the campaign of the little battalions, the battered old past it paddle steamers going across the English channel for one more load off the beaches and yes of those nostalgic for a better Britain that can and will be again. And we are going to do it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,089
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Imagine if a pollster as respected as ICM got a truly extraordinary result (esp via phone) - something like 58-42 LEAVE/REMAIN.

    It is arguable that this would be so explosive (especially after the 10 point LEAVE lead on Friday) the government would have a right to intervene, and delay its release, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

    I don't think this is what's happening, just saying it's not entirely impossible.
    Nah, I doubt that would happen. Given the market moves I expect it has Remain back in the lead with a 3-5 point swing.
    A 3 point Remain lead on a phone poll wouldn't be good for Remain.
    No, it wouldn't. It would confirm the momentum continues to be towards Leave.
    The last ICM phone poll had Leave 4% ahead (although that may well have been an outlier).
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    PlatoSaid said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    midwinter said:

    I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

    AA Gill in The Times

    Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

    We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
    This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

    He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
    He also shot a baboon IIRC - just to see how it felt.
    I imagine the baboon didn't feel well at all.

    I'll get me coat.
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Scott_P getting pretty desperate quoting AA Gill of all unpleasant people...

    And the article is bollox, and simplistic bollox at that. Divide the country into people who are progressive, open minded, good Europeans, and narrow minded backwards looking "little Englanders". it really is that simple isn't it, out of his Islington window.

    OK. If you say so. Keep writing that kind of stuff to maximise the Leave vote! Patronising tw@
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,921

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

    The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
    Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.
    Interesting. We're talking about the effect of EEA on the UK but what about our effect on the EEA? We're quite likely to destroy it entirely. No wonder the Norwegians are worried.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

    The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
    Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.
    Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

    Imagine if a pollster as respected as ICM got a truly extraordinary result (esp via phone) - something like 58-42 LEAVE/REMAIN.

    It is arguable that this would be so explosive (especially after the 10 point LEAVE lead on Friday) the government would have a right to intervene, and delay its release, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

    I don't think this is what's happening, just saying it's not entirely impossible.
    Nah, I doubt that would happen. Given the market moves I expect it has Remain back in the lead with a 3-5 point swing.
    A 3 point Remain lead on a phone poll wouldn't be good for Remain.
    No, it wouldn't. It would confirm the momentum continues to be towards Leave.
    The last ICM phone poll had Leave 4% ahead (although that may well have been an outlier).
    Yes, but that was over the bank holiday weekend, and was out of line with everything else at the time. I think any lead for Leave would be good news. A small Remain lead (0-3% would be neutral), and 4%+ for Remain would be bad news.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,964

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

    The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
    Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.
    Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.
    Which is basically what is needed
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,120

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

    The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
    Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.
    Why would they want to veto stuff they are no longer affected by? But yes. It is by far the best arrangement for both sides.
  • Options
    Blimey. French justice works quick. Two brits jailed for 2 and 3 months following Marseilles violence. (Sky report)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

    I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

    It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

    As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

    That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

    I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

    The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
    Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.
    Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.
    Which is basically what is needed
    Absolutely right; and the quicker everyone realises this, the happier we will all be.

    The EU is not awful or evil, despite what some people think. It is merely not for us.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,738

    Blimey. French justice works quick. Two brits jailed for 2 and 3 months following Marseilles violence. (Sky report)

    And zero Russians....
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Sorry if my 'get our country back phrase' has riled you midwinter.

    However the image of plucky patriots fighting uncaring federalist robots is anything but faux.

    Contrast. I am spending my time hand delivering hundreds of Vote Leave leaflets which provide information about the EU and why my team believes those facts support a vote to Leave. My leaflets say they are from the Leave campaign.

    The remain side by contrast sent out their information leaflet equally as partisan yet(branded as Her Majesty's Government, to every house in the country at tax payers expense.

    Forgive me my phrase but Leave is the campaign of the little battalions, the battered old past it paddle steamers going across the English channel for one more load off the beaches and yes of those nostalgic for a better Britain that can and will be again. And we are going to do it.

    I was wavering but this has tipped me into the remain camp. Paddle steamer, FFS. I will be one of the few waverers who can point to the exact moment they reached their final decision
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Scott_P getting pretty desperate quoting AA Gill of all unpleasant people...

    And the article is bollox, and simplistic bollox at that. Divide the country into people who are progressive, open minded, good Europeans, and narrow minded backwards looking "little Englanders". it really is that simple isn't it, out of his Islington window.

    OK. If you say so. Keep writing that kind of stuff to maximise the Leave vote! Patronising tw@

    Here's the other side article from Rod Liddle - they came as a matching pair in STimes

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rod-liddle-argues-the-case-for-brexit-3bwgkbq0p
This discussion has been closed.