Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
Over 2,000 posts per day on PB.com must be doing wonders for Mike's advertising revenues and interview fees. Small wonder that he can afford to keep taking overseas holidays every few weeks!
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Unweighted base 1000 483 426 Weighted base 1000 425 464 Remain a member of the 425 425 - European Union 43% 100% - Leave the European 464 - 464 Union 46% - 100% Certain not to vote in 51 - - EU Referendum 5% - - Don't know 60 - - 6% - -
That seems a big switch between unweighted to weighted and thus REMAIN to LEAVE?
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
(1) No, I don't think so.
(2) Quite possibly. I'd still just about favour Remain to pull it off, but I'd put their odds now at 50-55%. One month ago, I thought Remain had a 2/1 chance of winning.
The former DK's have pretty much all broken for Leave.... Way to go, Remain campaign. More unbelievable stats, more Fear, more Little Englander insults please.
I just greened off at 2.92 - Annoyingly. I should really learn that it takes a few minutes for people to load up Betfair, deposit and then back "Remain" shorter...
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
But still. Just ten days from the vote and BREXIT is SIX points ahead, in a PHONE POLL, with GOLD STANDARD ICM
wHODABLOODYTHUNK IT?
The government must be in full on Chernobyl mode. They're gonna need some kind of Vow on migration. Otherwise they are headed for defeat.
Yup. Oh to be a fly on the wall in Downing Street tonight.
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
But still. Just ten days from the vote and BREXIT is SIX points ahead, in a PHONE POLL, with GOLD STANDARD ICM
wHODABLOODYTHUNK IT?
The government must be in full on Chernobyl mode. They're gonna need some kind of Vow on migration. Otherwise they are headed for defeat.
They are going to have be photographed sending back migrants using the Dover Trebuchet Battery to have any credibility on immigration now....
I think we must all brace ourselves for another tearful "vow".
What can he try & sell? He went to speak to the big boss lady & got nothing.
Nothing. FOM would be the only thing that could gain traction at home but it would require fundamental treaty change and so no one can credibly promise it.
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
My reading of Reading remain voters is they are less motivated to vote, so getting out soft remainers will be huge ask. In fact may go the other and make them think "whats the point going to lose anyway."
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
My reading of Reading remain voters is they are less motivated to vote, so getting out soft remainers will be huge ask. In fact may go the other and make them think "whats the point going to lose anyway."
Hmm interesting view. Mine is that it takes a lot to stir soft remainers, but the thought of losing the country to a group led in spirit and perhaps body by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson might just do it.
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
CROSSOVER!!!!!
When will Leave on Betfair approach a 50% chance? If a 6% Leave lead on Gold Standard ICM doesn't do it what will?
Feels at the moment like Leave could poll 60% in Sunderland on June 23 and we'll still see Remain as Betfair overwhelming favourite.
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
But still. Just ten days from the vote and BREXIT is SIX points ahead, in a PHONE POLL, with GOLD STANDARD ICM
wHODABLOODYTHUNK IT?
The government must be in full on Chernobyl mode. They're gonna need some kind of Vow on migration. Otherwise they are headed for defeat.
But there is nothing that they can offer with any credibility. Have to get all 27 other states to agree first, which rather illustrates one of the failings of EU.
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
But still. Just ten days from the vote and BREXIT is SIX points ahead, in a PHONE POLL, with GOLD STANDARD ICM
wHODABLOODYTHUNK IT?
The government must be in full on Chernobyl mode. They're gonna need some kind of Vow on migration. Otherwise they are headed for defeat.
Yup. Oh to be a fly on the wall in Downing Street tonight.
"There was something of stolid resignation about them all, as if they walked half in another world between lines of nameless guards to a certain and familiar doom."
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
CROSSOVER!!!!!
When will Leave on Betfair approach a 50% chance? If a 6% Leave lead on Gold Standard ICM doesn't do it what will? .
With the disparity between ICM and ORB phone polls, a leave lead with ComRes/Survation phone could well bring the price right in.
I think we must all brace ourselves for another tearful "vow".
What can he try & sell? He went to speak to the big boss lady & got nothing.
From what I can gather, Mr Cameron actually refused the offer of something that would have suited the voters very well. Some sort of associate membership?
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
CROSSOVER!!!!!
When will Leave on Betfair approach a 50% chance? If a 6% Leave lead on Gold Standard ICM doesn't do it what will?
Feels at the moment like Leave could poll 60% in Sunderland on June 23 and we'll still see Remain as Betfair overwhelming favourite.
It's insane. A 6 percent lead with the Gold Standard and still 7/4 on bf. Got to be the value bet of all time. Hasn't it?
Two questions: (1) Can that Leave lead be overturned, in turn, by a higher Remain turnout of soft Remainers in response? (2) Will the pound and markets responding, which the BBC will make headline news, lead to weaker Leavers bottling it, either now, or on the day?
Anything can happen.
My reading of Reading remain voters is they are less motivated to vote, so getting out soft remainers will be huge ask. In fact may go the other and make them think "whats the point going to lose anyway."
Hmm interesting view. Mine is that it takes a lot to stir soft remainers, but the thought of losing the country to a group led in spirit and perhaps body by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson might just do it.
Surely nobody believes Farage will ever be in a position of power....As for Bo Jo he splits opinion.
Did the EU negotiators offer Cameron so little because they thought we'd vote Remain anyway? Or was it because, if they had to choose between the UK leaving and the UK getting more concessions, they really preferred to see the UK go?
If it was the first, it could have been the biggest misjudgement in the history of the EU.
Thursday's ITV debate was the f...ing disaster Angela Eagle pronounced it to be at the time. An SNP leader toxic to Tory voters, a Labour tribalist plus a demented Amber Rudd up against an urbane and considered Leave team - who thought that was a good idea?
Looks to me like the only thing that can save Remain now is the markets getting full-scale spooks at the prospect of a Leave vote. That may scare enough of the dwindling number of undecideds into voting for things as they are. Otherwise, it's hard to see a way back for Dave. He's premiership is about to come to a humiliating end; even more so given he will have been defeated and then replaced by Boris.
If the turnout is less than 65% I walk away with £1,250. A small consolation. I may put a bit on Boris just to keep the run going.
It can avoid hyperbole (fat chance) and stick to the unexciting but persuasive case to Remain a member of the EU.
They haven't even tried to make a positive case so far, Mr. Topping (and I agree there is one that could be made) probably a bit late to start now.
Cameron may yet squeak home, but he has might a right pig's breakfast of this issue and caused a lot of needless trouble for his party. Win or lose he will, I think, begone this year taking his sidekick with him and leaving a fearful mess for his successor to try and clear up.
Comments
Screenshot from ICM website claims new poll shows Brexit ahead by 5%
https://t.co/Q9QsNcSQ1c
Remain 47
Both online and phone show same
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls?CMP=twt_gu
Get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't refresh - wait, it will come.
Remain 45 (+3)
Leave 50 (+5)
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
Dare one suggest Intra-ICM herding?
60:40 very bad for REMAIN
Small wonder that he can afford to keep taking overseas holidays every few weeks!
I would say farcical but to describe polling as that seems redundant.
Anything can happen.
The Don't Knows look extraordinarily low.
Unless you are Cameron or Osborne.
That seems a big switch between unweighted to weighted and thus REMAIN to LEAVE?
The question is whether people are finally making their minds up, or if that section of the electorate is being significantly underestimated.
(2) Quite possibly. I'd still just about favour Remain to pull it off, but I'd put their odds now at 50-55%. One month ago, I thought Remain had a 2/1 chance of winning.
is there any big bazooka's left for them?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifAtvI48R_0
Get on the train before it LEAVES the station.
I am most heavy on Remain 40-45% on Betfair, which I think is still good value.
...Gordon Brown
Arf.
Or..not really?
Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 14 LD 9 Grn 5 SNP 4
VI (Online)
Con 34 Lab 30 UKIP 19 LD 8 Grn 4 SNP 4
'Left wingers' more likely to admit UKIP tendencies in online polls?
Still think we'll get some AB swingback to remain due to financial concerns.
Like SeanT's ex
Feels at the moment like Leave could poll 60% in Sunderland on June 23 and we'll still see Remain as Betfair overwhelming favourite.
For the first time I am really starting to believe this might happen.
I still think it is very hard to call.
this government and it's predecessor has permitted a full scale assault on their livelihoods.
I'm amazed there are 29% of lunatics out there still believing Dave will see them all right.
But you're right some PR might be produced, perhaps with an accompanying Germanic threat.
It will be immigration wot won it, if indeed it is won.
If it was the first, it could have been the biggest misjudgement in the history of the EU.
If the turnout is less than 65% I walk away with £1,250. A small consolation. I may put a bit on Boris just to keep the run going.
Perhaps the trans Atlantic cable has crashed with the news?
Cameron may yet squeak home, but he has might a right pig's breakfast of this issue and caused a lot of needless trouble for his party. Win or lose he will, I think, begone this year taking his sidekick with him and leaving a fearful mess for his successor to try and clear up.