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You can't really interpret it any way at all. The people in the middle might break 95% for Remain if they care about not risking the single market.Pulpstar said:0 -
Miss Plato, maybe the scattergun is to give them the most chance of getting it right (once, at least).
Mr. D, that's for PC gamers, as I understand it. Console peasants have to pay.0 -
@MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead0
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You probably think that's 'inconceivable'. It isn't.Richard_Tyndall said:
No it can't. The EEA agreement is bound by treaty. Unless they want to break the treaty entirely there is really nothing they can do about it.williamglenn said:
But the raison d'etre of EFTA is access to the EEA of which the EU is the dominant part. If the EU doesn't like that arrangement it can, over time, make sure it doesn't go on that way.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course it would. The big difference between the EU and EFTA is that the latter does not require its members to follow common rules on anything but trade. Nor can any individual country be outvoted. It is a completely different dynamic to the EU.williamglenn said:
I agree and am strongly for Remain.FF43 said:
Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.
The more rational Leavers who wish to retain a relationship with the EU via staying in the EEA do have a blind spot about how Brexit would itself change the geometry of European politics. EFTA in its present form would not survive the UK attempting to use it as a means to claim squatters' rights to stay in the EEA.0 -
@MSmithsonPB: ICM online has LEAVE 4% ahead0
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Game changers! The Day The Polls Turned! etc0
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I give up with the polls. No idea what's happening at all.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead
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ICM again showing that ICM is nonsense!0
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I can't decide what to do on 23rd to balance up a win or lose buffet. What's the right mix of comfort vs celebratory snack?RoyalBlue said:Glad to see I'm not the only one who's wasted the day thanks to ICM/the Guardian.
10 more sleeps until 23 June...
I'll get in the bubbly whatever the result - and if it's Brexit, will paint myself with woad too. If not, I'll get totally sloshed and fall asleep on the sofa.0 -
@MSmithsonPB: Both ICM phone and online polls have REMAIN in better position compared with last time0
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Wow ...... if true, that sounds virtually like game over.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead
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The online/phone conundrum continues.0
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Why is everyone linking to guardian article from 16th May for ICM poll???0
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ICM covering all bases!0
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ICM will be able to say they were right, whatever the outcome.0
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Hurrah for Alexander Graham Bell. Boo to Tim Berners-Lee.0
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Mr. Putney, it was Mr. Royale, not me.
ICM's bouncier than a hippo on a trampoline.0 -
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Leave out to 3.3 on BF0
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HOLD FIRE - I THINK SOMEONE'S PROVIDED MIKE WITH OLD POLLS0
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OMG FFS0
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Last night there was a EU debate organised by the Points West team with three Remainers and three Leavers on the panel. The audience was evenly divided between Remain and Leave.Not one person changed their minds after listening to the debate. Graham Watson for Remain was very competent and coped very well with every question. Jacob Rees Mogg was equally fluent for the Leave side. Billy Bragg was very animated and effective in promoting Remain. Christine Hamilton was on the Leave panel! The last Remain panel member had been a High Sheriff in Bristol and she answered every question with quiet authority. The final Leave panel member was nervous and lacking in any real knowledge of the topics.
The members of the audience who favoured Remain were diverse and included IT specialists, business people and a farmer who was very worried about how he would sell his lamb if we decided to leave Europe.The Aerospace person was worried about the impact to the West Country economy of an exit and a loss of co-operation with other European countries.
Some of the Leave audience members were very loud and obviously felt that shouting people down was the best way to get their message across.However one woman made a plea for her Polish friend to be allowed to remain.
I watched the programme and felt that any undecided voters would have seen some very sound reasons to vote REMAIN on June 23rd. Watch it and see if you agree.
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Fuck's sake.0
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These are 16th of May's figures!0
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WTF0
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Ah, that explains it, he was hopelessly wrong on the Dewsbury numbers too!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, it was Mr. Royale, not me.
ICM's bouncier than a hippo on a trampoline.0 -
And with that - I'm off to watch S5 Hell on Wheels.
Highly recommended. S1-4 are on Amazon Prime.
EDIT WTH?0 -
Wow DRAMA. Polls redacted.0
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With this being the wrong poll... Fill your boots on betfair...0
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Someone gave him links to the May 16th polls.SeanT said:
WHAT?????TheScreamingEagles said:HOLD FIRE - I THINK SOMEONE'S PROVIDED MIKE WITH OLD POLLS
lol!!!!!!!
Mike Smithson's brain has been HACKED0 -
I CANT TAKE THUIS SNFJ!!!!!!111!!!!0
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a day that will live in infamy! 0 -
Britain-Elects saying ICM rumoured figures are from May....0
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I think I might go and have an alcohol based drink now.
Mango juice won't cut it0 -
So there never was an ICM poll due?0
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Ignoring Don't Knows gives us - Phone Poll 54.65 Remain 45.35 Leave. Online Poll 47.78 Remain Leave 52.22.Scott_P said:@Todaysopinionis: ICM POLL PHONE 47% REMAIN 39% LEAVE
ICM ONLINE POLL 43% REMAIN 47% LEAVE0 -
At least today has demonstrated how well everyone has moved on from obsessing over polls following last year's election.0
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I hope someone didn't bet the ranch on the back of this.0
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There is an ICM poll due, possibly two.Luckyguy1983 said:So there never was an ICM poll due?
Martin Boon's confirmed that he's working on the figures for The Guardian0 -
Same.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might go and have an alcohol based drink now.
Mango juice won't cut it
The stress of waiting is quite painful.0 -
That is genuinely unbelievable. Maybe the markets had the same dodgy info. Shows just what a big deal this referendum is.0
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No there is an ICM poll due... since 12.30!Luckyguy1983 said:So there never was an ICM poll due?
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I make it over 100k matched in the last 10 mins :-)0
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Polling addicts....Philip_Thompson said:At least today has demonstrated how well everyone has moved on from obsessing over polls following last year's election.
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I hope they did. It will teach them not to be a tosspot.Sean_F said:I hope someone didn't bet the ranch on the back of this.
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Incidentally, my point about bouncy polls still stands.0
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Billions of pounds may have been traded on the back of Mike's tweet.SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/7423702892506439690 -
Trump at 1.06 on Betfair for GOP nominee - Looks quite big to me 6% return in just over a month ^_~ stuck my remaining £30.55 on on Betfair anyway...
F*ck knows with ICM !0 -
That was the poll that wasn't?
I'm Ed Miliband and I'm calling for an inquiry.0 -
Now where is that Emperor Palpatine "unlimited power" gif?SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/7423702892506439690 -
Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/7423702892506439690 -
OGH can collapse capitalism if he feels in the mood
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I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/7423702892506439690 -
Mr. 1983, betting on information is rational.
There was only a brief window when Verstappen was 250/1 to win the Spanish Grand Prix. It was a case of bet swiftly, or miss out (well, get a 40/1 winner...).0 -
AA Gill writes brilliantly on restaurants and as a tv critic. Of course, like many restaurant critics who write brilliantly, this doesn't mean he knows anything about anything other than restaurants (Jan Moir and Giles Coren spring to mind as being asinine on current affairs).
And as for their restaurant criticism, it is in the beauty of the writing that they excel. It's not as if they have better or more refined taste buds that can determine, better than you or I could, whether a steak here is better than a steak there.
Or an Italian wine over a french one, either, to pick a random example.0 -
Shows they don't have any inside infoSouthamObserver said:That is genuinely unbelievable. Maybe the markets had the same dodgy info. Shows just what a big deal this referendum is.
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Mathematically it is inappropriate in general to produce more significant figures in your output than was provided in your input. You can not provide a percentage to four significant figures extrapolating from a number originally rounded to 2 significant figures. You are introducing an error.justin124 said:
Ignoring Don't Knows gives us - Phone Poll 54.65 Remain 45.35 Leave. Online Poll 47.78 Remain Leave 52.22.Scott_P said:@Todaysopinionis: ICM POLL PHONE 47% REMAIN 39% LEAVE
ICM ONLINE POLL 43% REMAIN 47% LEAVE
Based on the numbers if the poll real you should say Remain 55, Leave 45 versus Remain 48, Leave 52.0 -
I can't cope with 10 more days of this. Shall we settle it on a coin flip then go to the pub?0
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Only one word in the political lexicon to describe OGH mistake....omnishambles!!!0
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These are exactly the same as 16th May. I just googled it.reverend_cat said:These are 16th of May's figures!
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"Your Trade Choice @Yourtradechoice 1m1 minute ago
#Trading #GBPUSD La #LIBRA se ubica en mínimos de 2 meses ante la incertidumbre del referendún #BREXIT en unos dias"0 -
I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969
Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.0 -
There should be a law against outsider trading.chestnut said:OGH can collapse capitalism if he feels in the mood
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ICM are not coming out of this in glory cant they just tweet sorry for delay likely publication time early evening0
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Britain Elects states NO repeat NO poll has yet been published.0
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He's in Spain, he's wanting to get more Euros for his money.SeanT said:It must be weird being Mike. Trillions of dollars react to his daily movements.
If he sneezes, emerging markets go into deep recession.0 -
I just retweeted - that's all.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, it was Mr. Royale, not me.
ICM's bouncier than a hippo on a trampoline.0 -
Has Mike had too much Sun and Sangria?
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His Winnie-the-Pooh books are pretty good too.TOPPING said:AA Gill writes brilliantly on restaurants and as a tv critic. .
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Oh, now I get it. This is what Donald Tusk was talking about.0
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Ah, but can he restore the Nikkei 225 overnight?SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/7423702892506439690 -
ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.
Which market, mind.0 -
5pm release
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Is that an informed source?SeanT said:@minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
#Brexit
Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.0 -
That surely would be some form of insider trading if you did?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969
Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.0 -
At least that one was timed to perfection by Big Ben!Casino_Royale said:
Is that an informed source?SeanT said:@minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
#Brexit
Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.0 -
I've been out all afternoon. Rather than scroll through hundreds of posts can someone just explain quickly what has happened? Ta muchly.0
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Arf some big hitter just scooped about £3k on Trump at 1.06, right after I mentioned it here 0
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Will it be as pleasurable?Casino_Royale said:
Is that an informed source?SeanT said:@minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
#Brexit
Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.0 -
Maybe he's being held hostage by a criminal betting syndicate.GIN1138 said:Has Mike had too much Sun and Sangria?
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http://www.brightonopenmarket.co.uk/market-hours/rcs1000 said:ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.
Which market, mind.
?0 -
The thing is the markets do move, when other people do have the same embargoed polls.Philip_Thompson said:
That surely would be some form of insider trading if you did?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969
Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.0 -
Well it's obvious they'd be in breach of their contract with the polling company. Whether there are criminal sanctions, I don't know. None obviously springs to mind, but he who skates on thin ice...Philip_Thompson said:
That surely would be some form of insider trading if you did?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not sure. I'd hate to find out.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I know Mike isn't in the industry, and made a mistake, but can you get done for fabricating poll results in order to achieve this sort of thing?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's done what I've always feared of doing.SeanT said:Feel the POWER of THE SMITHSON
He actually shifted the FOREX market
https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/742370289250643969
Is the reason Mike and I, for example, don't bet on embargoed polls.0 -
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Ever had that all encompassing feeling of being part of a crowd cheering a try, a horse, etc. The one where you're cheering so loud and living so much in the moment that you worry you've had a stroke? I was all on my own for 10pm last May, and still had that feeling on the publication of the exit poll.RobD said:
At least that one was timed to perfection by Big Ben!Casino_Royale said:
Is that an informed source?SeanT said:@minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
#Brexit
Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.0 -
Why????? We've not had this with polls before. Perhaps they are reacting to what has happened before. No doubt conspiracists will claim that the Guardian have been in contact with No.10 and they've decided to hush it up.rcs1000 said:ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.
Which market, mind.
Whilst everyone is bored you can get 13/8 on Belgium to beat Italy. As much as I love all things Italian this is quite possibly the worst football team they have ever had. On paper (at least) Belgium look class.0 -
Inside Downing St. They wait for ICM....
David Cameron: "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking..."0 -
Seeing how No.10 has been behaving It's more likely that they are the ones hyping up a mildly unfavourable poll (e.g. 1 or 2% Leave lead) in order to manage expectations.SeanT said:
That is an odd coincidence, isn't it?rcs1000 said:ICM Brexit poll to be released after market close.
Which market, mind.
Remember what I said before... That if the poll was explosively pro-LEAVE then arguably the government might seek to delay it, by a few hours, to prepare the markets and the BoE.
I don't mean this conspiratorially, I just mean as a sensible measure.
I have no idea if such a thing would be legal or feasible, I'm just saying it is morally defensible.0 -
You mean as regards Pantsdown's hat et al?Philip_Thompson said:
Will it be as pleasurable?Casino_Royale said:
Is that an informed source?SeanT said:@minefornothing 47s48 seconds ago
ICM POLL TO BE RELEASED AT 5PM
#Brexit
Honestly, waiting for *that* exit poll at 10pm last year was easier than this.0
This discussion has been closed.