politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Labour MPs have been reading their Macbeth. If i
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If we vote for Brexit the EU should open negotiations with EFTA on June 24th to incorporate their institutions into the EU's and formalise an associate member status.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.edmundintokyo said:
Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.FF43 said:
I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.SouthamObserver said:
That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.SeanT said:
It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.SouthamObserver said:Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.
I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.
As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU0 -
Fabians’ plan is to levy the one-off tax on those with assets over £10 million or who use “aggressive tax avoidance”. Those with over £20 million in assets will suffer an even bigger expropriation of their wealth. The authors of this plan think this will avoid losing votes as it will hit only the 0.1%.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/13/jarvis-backs-fabian-wealth-tax-proposals-citing-hedge-fund-profiteering/
Mansion Tax to windfall Wealth Tax.0 -
What benefits do we get from the EEA that we don't get from the EU?rcs1000 said:
Absolutely right; and the quicker everyone realises this, the happier we will all be.Alanbrooke said:
Which is basically what is neededTheWhiteRabbit said:
Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.edmundintokyo said:
Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.FF43 said:
I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.SouthamObserver said:
That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.SeanT said:
It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.SouthamObserver said:Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.
I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.
As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
The EU is not awful or evil, despite what some people think. It is merely not for us.0 -
PaywallPlatoSaid said:
Here's the other side article from Rod Liddle - they came as a matching pair in STimesJonCisBack said:Scott_P getting pretty desperate quoting AA Gill of all unpleasant people...
And the article is bollox, and simplistic bollox at that. Divide the country into people who are progressive, open minded, good Europeans, and narrow minded backwards looking "little Englanders". it really is that simple isn't it, out of his Islington window.
OK. If you say so. Keep writing that kind of stuff to maximise the Leave vote! Patronising tw@
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rod-liddle-argues-the-case-for-brexit-3bwgkbq0p
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It's struck me for a long time that for a lot of folk diversity equates people to a tube of smarties. You're allowed to look different, but inside: all the same.
The biggest risk I see for Brexit is that I'm dependent on the calibre of the people who will implement it. The economic risk I've factored in. It will be easy to screw up an exit.0 -
Arf
Eurosceptic MP James Cleverly has this novel idea for EU reform: why don't they pay us to stay in if we are that important?
He also rubbished the suggestion by Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, that Brexit could lead to the "destruction of Western civilisation".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/13/eu-referendum-tory-donor-funding-david-cameron-gordon-brown-live/#update-20160613-14290 -
That's OK then - those with all the money leave the UK.FrancisUrquhart said:Fabians’ plan is to levy the one-off tax on those with assets over £10 million or who use “aggressive tax avoidance”. Those with over £20 million in assets will suffer an even bigger expropriation of their wealth. The authors of this plan think this will avoid losing votes as it will hit only the 0.1%.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/13/jarvis-backs-fabian-wealth-tax-proposals-citing-hedge-fund-profiteering/
Mansion Tax to windfall Wealth Tax.0 -
He seems to know his English mind youSeanT said:
This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseatingScott_P said:
AA Gill in The Timesmidwinter said:I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.
Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.
We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.0 -
I dislike the phrase because, firstly, it sounds like the kind of thing a recently spurned teenage girl might say about her departed beau in a particularly painful novel, but principally as I said before, because those who use it like to consider themselves more patriotic than anyone who might vote for Remain.Concanvasser said:Sorry if my 'get our country back phrase' has riled you midwinter.
However the image of plucky patriots fighting uncaring federalist robots is anything but faux.
Contrast. I am spending my time hand delivering hundreds of Vote Leave leaflets which provide information about the EU and why my team believes those facts support a vote to Leave. My leaflets say they are from the Leave campaign.
The remain side by contrast sent out their information leaflet equally as partisan yet(branded as Her Majesty's Government, to every house in the country at tax payers expense.
Forgive me my phrase but Leave is the campaign of the little battalions, the battered old past it paddle steamers going across the English channel for one more load off the beaches and yes of those nostalgic for a better Britain that can and will be again. And we are going to do it.
I'm hoping your last paragraph was written with your tongue firmly in your cheek.....0 -
It's the best £8.67 pcm I spend. I don't bother with the tablet do da stuff - simple online gives me everything.John_M said:
PaywallPlatoSaid said:
Here's the other side article from Rod Liddle - they came as a matching pair in STimesJonCisBack said:Scott_P getting pretty desperate quoting AA Gill of all unpleasant people...
And the article is bollox, and simplistic bollox at that. Divide the country into people who are progressive, open minded, good Europeans, and narrow minded backwards looking "little Englanders". it really is that simple isn't it, out of his Islington window.
OK. If you say so. Keep writing that kind of stuff to maximise the Leave vote! Patronising tw@
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rod-liddle-argues-the-case-for-brexit-3bwgkbq0p.
It's struck me for a long time that for a lot of folk diversity equates people to a tube of smarties. You're allowed to look different, but inside: all the same.
The biggest risk I see for Brexit is that I'm dependent on the calibre of the people who will implement it. The economic risk I've factored in. It will be easy to screw up an exit.
On the subject of diverse opinions - Brexiteers seem much more willing to take risks and be different. And not scared of it.0 -
Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.williamglenn said:
If we vote for Brexit the EU should open negotiations with EFTA on June 24th to incorporate their institutions into the EU's and formalise an associate member status.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.edmundintokyo said:
Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.FF43 said:
I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.SouthamObserver said:
That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.SeanT said:
It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.SouthamObserver said:Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.
I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.
As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU0 -
Yep. That was grimsaddened said:
I was wavering but this has tipped me into the remain camp. Paddle steamer, FFS. I will be one of the few waverers who can point to the exact moment they reached their final decisionConcanvasser said:Sorry if my 'get our country back phrase' has riled you midwinter.
However the image of plucky patriots fighting uncaring federalist robots is anything but faux.
Contrast. I am spending my time hand delivering hundreds of Vote Leave leaflets which provide information about the EU and why my team believes those facts support a vote to Leave. My leaflets say they are from the Leave campaign.
The remain side by contrast sent out their information leaflet equally as partisan yet(branded as Her Majesty's Government, to every house in the country at tax payers expense.
Forgive me my phrase but Leave is the campaign of the little battalions, the battered old past it paddle steamers going across the English channel for one more load off the beaches and yes of those nostalgic for a better Britain that can and will be again. And we are going to do it.0 -
It can't compete with my Spotify Premium. I can live without the Times.PlatoSaid said:
It's the best £8.67 pcm I spend. I don't bother with the tablet do da stuff - simple online gives me everything.John_M said:
PaywallPlatoSaid said:
Here's the other side article from Rod Liddle - they came as a matching pair in STimesJonCisBack said:Scott_P getting pretty desperate quoting AA Gill of all unpleasant people...
And the article is bollox, and simplistic bollox at that. Divide the country into people who are progressive, open minded, good Europeans, and narrow minded backwards looking "little Englanders". it really is that simple isn't it, out of his Islington window.
OK. If you say so. Keep writing that kind of stuff to maximise the Leave vote! Patronising tw@
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rod-liddle-argues-the-case-for-brexit-3bwgkbq0p.
It's struck me for a long time that for a lot of folk diversity equates people to a tube of smarties. You're allowed to look different, but inside: all the same.
The biggest risk I see for Brexit is that I'm dependent on the calibre of the people who will implement it. The economic risk I've factored in. It will be easy to screw up an exit.0 -
But I thought they did pay us? Didn't St. Nicola tell us that we get £10 back for every £1 we put in?PlatoSaid said:Arf
Eurosceptic MP James Cleverly has this novel idea for EU reform: why don't they pay us to stay in if we are that important?
He also rubbished the suggestion by Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, that Brexit could lead to the "destruction of Western civilisation".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/13/eu-referendum-tory-donor-funding-david-cameron-gordon-brown-live/#update-20160613-14290 -
We only pay about 1/7th - 1/8th of the gross contribution or about 1/4 of the net contribution we pay now.FrankBooth said:
What benefits do we get from the EEA that we don't get from the EU?rcs1000 said:
Absolutely right; and the quicker everyone realises this, the happier we will all be.Alanbrooke said:
Which is basically what is neededTheWhiteRabbit said:
Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.edmundintokyo said:
Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.FF43 said:
I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.SouthamObserver said:
That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.SeanT said:
It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.SouthamObserver said:Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.
I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.
As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
The EU is not awful or evil, despite what some people think. It is merely not for us.
We only have to obey the laws directly concerned with the Single Market. Somewhere over 75% of EU legislation would no longer apply to us.
No CFP and CAP.
We get to vote on the important international bodies which actually decide the rules and standards of trade.
We are no longer subject to rulings of the ECJ
Looking forward we will no longer be at risk of Ever Closer Union.
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Betting odds indicate 'Out' campaign making up ground fast
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-odds-idUKKCN0YZ0J60 -
I've been paying a tenner for SPremium for a year and keep forgetting to cancel it!John_M said:
It can't compete with my Spotify Premium. I can live without the Times.PlatoSaid said:
It's the best £8.67 pcm I spend. I don't bother with the tablet do da stuff - simple online gives me everything.John_M said:
PaywallPlatoSaid said:
Here's the other side article from Rod Liddle - they came as a matching pair in STimesJonCisBack said:Scott_P getting pretty desperate quoting AA Gill of all unpleasant people...
And the article is bollox, and simplistic bollox at that. Divide the country into people who are progressive, open minded, good Europeans, and narrow minded backwards looking "little Englanders". it really is that simple isn't it, out of his Islington window.
OK. If you say so. Keep writing that kind of stuff to maximise the Leave vote! Patronising tw@
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rod-liddle-argues-the-case-for-brexit-3bwgkbq0p.
It's struck me for a long time that for a lot of folk diversity equates people to a tube of smarties. You're allowed to look different, but inside: all the same.
The biggest risk I see for Brexit is that I'm dependent on the calibre of the people who will implement it. The economic risk I've factored in. It will be easy to screw up an exit.0 -
Mr. Rentool, that claim is one of the most laughable either campaign has made.
The idea we get back £100bn (perhaps more) from the EU is a shade optimistic.
Mr. T, that'd make the last few ICMs quite the pendulum.0 -
Deciding how you are going to vote in one of the most important elections based on an anonymous comment on PB does seem just a bit OTT!midwinter said:
Yep. That was grimsaddened said:
I was wavering but this has tipped me into the remain camp. Paddle steamer, FFS. I will be one of the few waverers who can point to the exact moment they reached their final decisionConcanvasser said:Sorry if my 'get our country back phrase' has riled you midwinter.
However the image of plucky patriots fighting uncaring federalist robots is anything but faux.
Contrast. I am spending my time hand delivering hundreds of Vote Leave leaflets which provide information about the EU and why my team believes those facts support a vote to Leave. My leaflets say they are from the Leave campaign.
The remain side by contrast sent out their information leaflet equally as partisan yet(branded as Her Majesty's Government, to every house in the country at tax payers expense.
Forgive me my phrase but Leave is the campaign of the little battalions, the battered old past it paddle steamers going across the English channel for one more load off the beaches and yes of those nostalgic for a better Britain that can and will be again. And we are going to do it.0 -
Richard Tyndall. The whole leave campaign has been based on immigration. I can't see that being acceptable.0
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Should England get dumped out of Euro 2016 by Slovakia next Monday evening, will Woy and the boys arrive home via Luton Airport before the polls open on Thursday morning? - This could prove crucial to the referendum outcome.0
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I agree and am strongly for Remain.FF43 said:
Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.williamglenn said:
If we vote for Brexit the EU should open negotiations with EFTA on June 24th to incorporate their institutions into the EU's and formalise an associate member status.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.edmundintokyo said:
Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.FF43 said:
I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.SouthamObserver said:
That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.SeanT said:
It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.SouthamObserver said:Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.
I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.
As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
The more rational Leavers who wish to retain a relationship with the EU via staying in the EEA do have a blind spot about how Brexit would itself change the geometry of European politics. EFTA in its present form would not survive the UK attempting to use it as a means to claim squatters' rights to stay in the EEA.0 -
If they are wrong... The pound is going to drop a fair bit.SeanT said:The forex markets, judging by dealers on Twitter, are convinced it's a 5 point lead for REMAIN
I HAVE NO IDEA IF THEY'RE RIGHT
It's an interesting test, tho. If they are proven correct it means the markets have inside info and we should look to them for early indicators.0 -
I would think LatAm is shrinking right now, given that GDP growth is negative in Brazil, Venezuela, etc.SeanT said:
The EU isn't working for Greece. Or Italy. Or Portugal. Or France, really. Or Spain. Or Europe.FF43 said:
Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.williamglenn said:
If we vote for Brexit the EU should open negotiations with EFTA on June 24th to incorporate their institutions into the EU's and formalise an associate member status.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.edmundintokyo said:
Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.FF43 said:
I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.SouthamObserver said:
That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.SeanT said:
It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.SouthamObserver said:Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.
I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.
As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
Europe is the slowest growing continent on the planet.0 -
If they had insider info wouldn't they be better not saying anything on twitter? You know, you wouldn't want to give the authorities the impression you were quite happy to use privileged info for personal gain or anything like that.SeanT said:The forex markets, judging by dealers on Twitter, are convinced it's a 5 point lead for REMAIN
I HAVE NO IDEA IF THEY'RE RIGHT
It's an interesting test, tho. If they are proven correct it means the markets have inside info and we should look to them for early indicators.0 -
Dunno much about A A Gill's political views or likeability but the best piece of popular history I have just about ever read was this about the Battle of Towton:
towton-bloodbath-changed-our-history.html0 -
@rcs1000 Pfft. As if FACTS matter. This is about the truth in people's hearts. That's far more important.0
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After the violence in France, clearly Russia would be the second worst place in the world to hold a football tournament.
The worst place?
"A court in Qatar has convicted a Dutch woman of having sex outside marriage after she told police she was raped."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36516006
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Who does an early exit favour ?peter_from_putney said:Should England get dumped out of Euro 2016 by Slovakia next Monday evening, will Woy and the boys arrive home via Luton Airport before the polls open on Thursday morning? - This could prove crucial to the referendum outcome.
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LeavePulpstar said:
Who does an early exit favour ?peter_from_putney said:Should England get dumped out of Euro 2016 by Slovakia next Monday evening, will Woy and the boys arrive home via Luton Airport before the polls open on Thursday morning? - This could prove crucial to the referendum outcome.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/11/15/another-reason-why-cameron-shouldnt-hold-the-referendum-next-june/0 -
Have a general election, the winner gets a mandate for whatever they argue for, no need to worry about the general vibe of a previous vote.FrankBooth said:Richard Tyndall. The whole leave campaign has been based on immigration. I can't see that being acceptable.
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Pound now UP for the day0
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Somebody needs to tell the BBC....marke09 said:Pound now UP for the day
Sterling falls as investors fret over Brexit uncertainty
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-365158160 -
Actually - no! Vote Leave carefully kept away from immigration - until Purdah started. Whether it was due to Purdah or a coincidence in timings, I do not know.FrankBooth said:Richard Tyndall. The whole leave campaign has been based on immigration. I can't see that being acceptable.
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Well yeah .....but really, battered old paddle steamers? Not sure that's an image Leave want to be using to describe themselves. However apt.........RobD said:
Deciding how you are going to vote in one of the most important elections based on an anonymous comment on PB does seem just a bit OTT!midwinter said:
Yep. That was grimsaddened said:
I was wavering but this has tipped me into the remain camp. Paddle steamer, FFS. I will be one of the few waverers who can point to the exact moment they reached their final decisionConcanvasser said:Sorry if my 'get our country back phrase' has riled you midwinter.
However the image of plucky patriots fighting uncaring federalist robots is anything but faux.
Contrast. I am spending my time hand delivering hundreds of Vote Leave leaflets which provide information about the EU and why my team believes those facts support a vote to Leave. My leaflets say they are from the Leave campaign.
The remain side by contrast sent out their information leaflet equally as partisan yet(branded as Her Majesty's Government, to every house in the country at tax payers expense.
Forgive me my phrase but Leave is the campaign of the little battalions, the battered old past it paddle steamers going across the English channel for one more load off the beaches and yes of those nostalgic for a better Britain that can and will be again. And we are going to do it.0 -
And the betting markets are nearly back to where they were this morning - Remain is currently 1.46/1.47.0
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And zero French.FrancisUrquhart said:
And zero Russians....TCPoliticalBetting said:Blimey. French justice works quick. Two brits jailed for 2 and 3 months following Marseilles violence. (Sky report)
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They couldn't even wait until close of business?FrancisUrquhart said:
Somebody needs to tell the BBC....marke09 said:Pound now UP for the day
Sterling falls as investors fret over Brexit uncertainty
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-365158160 -
Could be an attempt to manipulate the market.SeanT said:The forex markets, judging by dealers on Twitter, are convinced it's a 5 point lead for REMAIN
I HAVE NO IDEA IF THEY'RE RIGHT
It's an interesting test, tho. If they are proven correct it means the markets have inside info and we should look to them for early indicators.0 -
3 French are on trial shortly. 2 Russian have been arrested, but only for pitch invasion, not the hooliganism.Luckyguy1983 said:
And zero French.FrancisUrquhart said:
And zero Russians....TCPoliticalBetting said:Blimey. French justice works quick. Two brits jailed for 2 and 3 months following Marseilles violence. (Sky report)
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Mr. Rentool, that's a quite rancid perversion of justice in Qatar.0
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Of course it would. The big difference between the EU and EFTA is that the latter does not require its members to follow common rules on anything but trade. Nor can any individual country be outvoted. It is a completely different dynamic to the EU.williamglenn said:
I agree and am strongly for Remain.FF43 said:
Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.williamglenn said:
If we vote for Brexit the EU should open negotiations with EFTA on June 24th to incorporate their institutions into the EU's and formalise an associate member status.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.edmundintokyo said:
Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.FF43 said:
I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.SouthamObserver said:
That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.SeanT said:
It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.SouthamObserver said:Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.
I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.
As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.
The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU
The more rational Leavers who wish to retain a relationship with the EU via staying in the EEA do have a blind spot about how Brexit would itself change the geometry of European politics. EFTA in its present form would not survive the UK attempting to use it as a means to claim squatters' rights to stay in the EEA.0 -
It appears Gordon Brown has been enjoying a lot of kit-kats since his retirement from politics.0
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I can imagine Labour wanting to see the Government stew in its self inflicted chaos and to decline to faciltate an early election.edmundintokyo said:
Have a general election, the winner gets a mandate for whatever they argue for, no need to worry about the general vibe of a previous vote.FrankBooth said:Richard Tyndall. The whole leave campaign has been based on immigration. I can't see that being acceptable.
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As any good lawyer surely knows, FACTS can be marshalled to support either side of the argument.AlastairMeeks said:@rcs1000 Pfft. As if FACTS matter. This is about the truth in people's hearts. That's far more important.
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Stock Market shuts at 4.30, doesn't it?0
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Labour's Gisela Stuart faces inquiry over claims she did not declare interests
Vote Leave co-convenor allegedly failed to declare shareholdings in company offering tax planning for non-domiciled residents
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/labour-mp-gisela-stuart-inquiry-alleged-failure-declare-interests-vestra-wealth0 -
It will depend on what the will is of the whole population - Remainers and Brexiters - after we Leave. The votes of those who voted Remain will be just as valid as those who voted Leave in any future decisions on our relationship with the Single Market.FrankBooth said:Richard Tyndall. The whole leave campaign has been based on immigration. I can't see that being acceptable.
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SeanT said:
The forex markets, judging by dealers on Twitter, are convinced it's a 5 point lead for REMAIN
I HAVE NO IDEA IF THEY'RE RIGHT
It's an interesting test, tho. If they are proven correct it means the markets have inside info and we should look to them for early indicators.
The pollsters need to be ultra careful. If information is leaking out, the market abuse consequences for a market with over $300bn of daily turnover would be horrific.
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I am sure FIFA will take this stuff very serious and consider if holding a world cup in the country fits with the values of such as equality that FIFA require host nations to embrace...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, that's a quite rancid perversion of justice in Qatar.
Or perhaps there are several billion other reasons why they won't.0 -
But the raison d'etre of EFTA is access to the EEA of which the EU is the dominant part. If the EU doesn't like that arrangement it can, over time, make sure it doesn't go on that way.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course it would. The big difference between the EU and EFTA is that the latter does not require its members to follow common rules on anything but trade. Nor can any individual country be outvoted. It is a completely different dynamic to the EU.williamglenn said:
I agree and am strongly for Remain.FF43 said:
Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.
The more rational Leavers who wish to retain a relationship with the EU via staying in the EEA do have a blind spot about how Brexit would itself change the geometry of European politics. EFTA in its present form would not survive the UK attempting to use it as a means to claim squatters' rights to stay in the EEA.0 -
"We had to halve our odds on Monday morning for a Brexit result," William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said."chestnut said:Betting odds indicate 'Out' campaign making up ground fast
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-odds-idUKKCN0YZ0J6
No Mr. Sharpe, either you or the reuters journalist is mistaken.
You didn't halve your odds, you cut them from 2/1 to 7/4. That's about a 6% reduction depending on how you calculate these things.
Definitely nowhere near half, though!
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result/bet-history/leave/today0 -
LEAVE's odds have weakened ...... Bet365 has them back at 2/1.SeanT said:Very strong rumours that ICM has healthy REMAIN lead
Sterling has shot up0 -
That's because they were comodity exporters at a time when the price of oil went from $30 to $150. The correlation between GDP growth and commodity prices is basically one for all of LatAm. Put in context, 93% of Venezuela's exports are oil; three-quarters of Argentina's, and two-thirds of Brazil's exports are primary commodities. The numbers will be similar, I'm sure, for Chile and the like.SeanT said:
Perhaps at the very moment (dunno). But over the last ten years (a more sensible measure) LatAm has outstripped the EUrcs1000 said:
I would think LatAm is shrinking right now, given that GDP growth is negative in Brazil, Venezuela, etc.
Look, I totally buy the EU is not going to be the economic powerhouse of the world in the next decade, but last time we had a commodity down-cycle (1982-1999), Latin American basically went 18 years without growing.0 -
Do we really have 10 more days of this?
Please. Make it stop.0 -
Been away from desk - did we get the ICM?0
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If you vote Leave we'll have years of it. That's why you should vote Remain to make it stop.Casino_Royale said:Do we really have 10 more days of this?
Please. Make it stop.
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Yes, Leave 83%, Remain 12%, DKs 5%.rottenborough said:Been away from desk - did we get the ICM?
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Cor this is exciting...... kinda.0
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This is truly horrible.0
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Yep, we obviously had a time-travelling named person sent back to indoctrinate him in the ways of Anglo hatred..SeanT said:
This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English
'Gill was born in Edinburgh to English parents, television producer and director Michael Gill and actress Yvonne Gilan, and brother to Nicholas. The family moved back to the south of England when he was one year old.'
http://tinyurl.com/jtkspxa0 -
You'll be the one regretting your Remain vote.williamglenn said:
If you vote Leave we'll have years of it. That's why you should vote Remain to make it stop.Casino_Royale said:Do we really have 10 more days of this?
Please. Make it stop.
I will be happy with mine.0 -
Ha, ha. That sounds more like the response I got at the Remain street stall the other day!!rcs1000 said:
Yes, Leave 83%, Remain 12%, DKs 5%.rottenborough said:Been away from desk - did we get the ICM?
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Takes more than that to shift Betfair!!rcs1000 said:
Yes, Leave 83%, Remain 12%, DKs 5%.rottenborough said:Been away from desk - did we get the ICM?
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If you think this is tense, wait until a week on Wednesday, where I think we might get around 8 EURef polls in one go.0
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Bleeding 'eck.TheScreamingEagles said:If you think this is tense, wait until a week on Wednesday, where I think we might get around 8 EURef polls in one go.
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rcs1000 said:
Yes, Leave 83%, Remain 12%, DKs 5%.rottenborough said:Been away from desk - did we get the ICM?
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I might go into hypersleep until 23rd.TheScreamingEagles said:If you think this is tense, wait until a week on Wednesday, where I think we might get around 8 EURef polls in one go.
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Isn't he actually an Englishman pretending to be a Scot?SeanT said:
He's an excellent prose stylist. But beyond restaurant criticism I wouldn't pay tuppence for his opinions, he is a paranoid hater by nature, bristling with contempt, especially for the English.PlatoSaid said:
He also shot a baboon IIRC - just to see how it felt.SeanT said:
This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseatingScott_P said:
AA Gill in The Timesmidwinter said:I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.
Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.
We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905
He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.
Ex smack addict, too.
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Be sure to set the yearCasino_Royale said:
I might go into hypersleep until 23rd.TheScreamingEagles said:If you think this is tense, wait until a week on Wednesday, where I think we might get around 8 EURef polls in one go.
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The challenge now will be to squeeze the don't knows and get near 90%.rcs1000 said:
Yes, Leave 83%, Remain 12%, DKs 5%.rottenborough said:Been away from desk - did we get the ICM?
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What are ICM playing at? Have they been told not to release figures while London traders are at their desks?
Obviously FX markets are 24/7, but GBPUSD liquidity will dwindle as London goes home.0 -
Opinium for the Express
39% Leave
13% Leave and EFTA
33% Remain
Only regions favouring remain over Micky Flanagan Leave (out-out) were London, Scotland and NI.
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Some chap on a train told me to buy LinkedIn stock a while back - was young and clued up.
Did I buy it ?
Did I heck D;0 -
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Curse me for being in France and not being able to bet.0
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Incidentally, thanks to everyone saying how unproductive they are.
Even though I'm making gradual rather than swift progress, I feel much better by comparison
Mildly miffed the Skyrim remaster appears to be full price, though.0 -
It's the Guardian's poll so presumably the get to release it when it suits them. They'll probably need to do a write-up first.RoyalBlue said:What are ICM playing at? Have they been told not to release figures while London traders are at their desks?
Obviously FX markets are 24/7, but GBPUSD liquidity will dwindle as London goes home.
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Normally the phone polls are published on the Guardian website around 3.30pm to 6pmRoyalBlue said:What are ICM playing at? Have they been told not to release figures while London traders are at their desks?
Obviously FX markets are 24/7, but GBPUSD liquidity will dwindle as London goes home.0 -
I think you should be banned for ramping - i'm gonna tell your dad!rcs1000 said:
Yes, Leave 83%, Remain 12%, DKs 5%.rottenborough said:Been away from desk - did we get the ICM?
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#ICM0
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I agree -- why the delay?RoyalBlue said:What are ICM playing at? Have they been told not to release figures while London traders are at their desks?
Obviously FX markets are 24/7, but GBPUSD liquidity will dwindle as London goes home.
You must surely not tinker with the methodology once the raw data are in (confirmation bias).
So, the algorithm should be ready to go. There is no obvious algorithmic reason for the delay ...
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I've put off an appointment and wasted time titting about since 11am. And still nothing!MP_SE said:0 -
I heard that if you had the base game + all DLC, you'd get it for free.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, thanks to everyone saying how unproductive they are.
Even though I'm making gradual rather than swift progress, I feel much better by comparison
Mildly miffed the Skyrim remaster appears to be full price, though.0 -
Given the Grauniad's financial state I'd have thought they'd be buying/selling sterling and/or backing/laying leave on Betfair before a "release".SouthamObserver said:
It's the Guardian's poll so presumably the get to release it when it suits them. They'll probably need to do a write-up first.RoyalBlue said:What are ICM playing at? Have they been told not to release figures while London traders are at their desks?
Obviously FX markets are 24/7, but GBPUSD liquidity will dwindle as London goes home.0 -
I agree with TSE
TSE
1m
TSE @TSEofPB
Staring intently at @guardian_clark twitter feed for that ICM poll. It is days like this I wish I wasn't interested in politics or betting.0 -
on what?TheScreamingEagles said:Curse me for being in France and not being able to bet.
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0
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The referendum, I'm feeling ballsy, I'd start laying Leave at something like 4.5*TheWhiteRabbit said:
on what?TheScreamingEagles said:Curse me for being in France and not being able to bet.
*Probably more like 3.110 -
Glad to see I'm not the only one who's wasted the day thanks to ICM/the Guardian.
10 more sleeps until 23 June...0 -
The endless fiddling with weightings aren't helping any of us. There's no consistency or easy comparisons.YBarddCwsc said:
I agree -- why the delay?RoyalBlue said:What are ICM playing at? Have they been told not to release figures while London traders are at their desks?
Obviously FX markets are 24/7, but GBPUSD liquidity will dwindle as London goes home.
You must surely not tinker with the methodology once the raw data are in (confirmation bias).
So, the algorithm should be ready to go. There is no obvious algorithmic reason for the delay ...
As another said FPT, I hope the BPC do set some standards - we're all over the place.0 -
That's a superb screen grab!Theuniondivvie said:Yer da's gone to the dancin' again.
ttps://twitter.com/DamCou/status/742365193448095744
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No it can't. The EEA agreement is bound by treaty. Unless they want to break the treaty entirely there is really nothing they can do about it.williamglenn said:
But the raison d'etre of EFTA is access to the EEA of which the EU is the dominant part. If the EU doesn't like that arrangement it can, over time, make sure it doesn't go on that way.Richard_Tyndall said:
Of course it would. The big difference between the EU and EFTA is that the latter does not require its members to follow common rules on anything but trade. Nor can any individual country be outvoted. It is a completely different dynamic to the EU.williamglenn said:
I agree and am strongly for Remain.FF43 said:
Agreed that it is better than complete isolation, but is a much worse option than remaining in the EU, because it's fragile and won't work for the UK. The EU does work, even people don't like it much.
The more rational Leavers who wish to retain a relationship with the EU via staying in the EEA do have a blind spot about how Brexit would itself change the geometry of European politics. EFTA in its present form would not survive the UK attempting to use it as a means to claim squatters' rights to stay in the EEA.0 -
Well done on slipping a 70s pop reference into that post.SeanT said:
I've made one phone call, and taken delivery of an iPhone i lost in France last month.MP_SE said:
And that's it.
This referendum is killing my career.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_in_France
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I blame Morris - he told us to expect the ICM poll at 12.30pm.0
