politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Labour MPs have been reading their Macbeth. If i

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

@yxfpmsveeijci
@GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...

weejonnie said:

Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.

weejonnie said:

Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

Hey! I've been saying that for ages. If it is a close vote then it wouldn't be fair to ignore the 49% of people who voted for remain. I've been told time and again that any politicians who did would be accused of being quisling traitors.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

Excuse me. I am neither a posh boy nor a retiree. Comprehensive schooled from a working class/Lower Middle Class background who runs his own business. If anything I am a complete oik.

As far as I'm concerned, if you're not an ex-homeless heroin addict, then - frankly - you're a toff.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

@yxfpmsveeijci
@GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...

Richard_Tyndall said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Excellent article on the previous thread. I'm gloomy about Remain's prospects, but articles like that give me hope. Yes, the vast majority of posters on here are for Leave but they're all posh boys or retirees on the Sussex coast. If they were representative of the British public then the country would still be medieval. With any luck, the thinkers and the doers will make the right choice and get Remain over the line.

Excuse me. I am neither a posh boy nor a retiree. Comprehensive schooled from a working class/Lower Middle Class background who runs his own business. If anything I am a complete oik.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pong said:

rcs1000 said:

@Patrick: this is the poll - http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679104/End-EU-rule-FINALLY-Leave-camp-take-19-POINT-lead-Britons-flock-Brexit

It's Bruges Group commissioned, so I'd be a little bit cautious.

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/tables-bruges-group-poll

It wasn't the fact it was Bruges Group commissioned. Opinium would not allow their name to be sullied by leading questions or being influenced by who asked for the poll.

What destroys it is the fact that the Express reported it with no weighting or basic corrections as if it were a real poll result. It is no wonder Opinium were somewhat annoyed

Charles said:

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

@yxfpmsveeijci
@GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...

I think it's a riff on delays due to 'leaves on the line'

Cookie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

Well, yes, I agree. I'd add that the Remainers have spent the last 40 years quietly ignoring the views of the leavers. That's what got us into this mess in the first place.

Actually, I've just re-read this, and it sounds unnecessarily barbed, particularly as you, SO, have been REMAINing consistently politely over the last few weeks. I don't mean to be rude. Both sides need to remember that away from the margins, this needn't be a great clash of cultures; just two different strategies for achieving the best for the British people that neither side can be 100% sure of being right about.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

weejonnie said:

Massive move on Betfair - from 3 to 2.96.

More massive movement. Leave goes from 2.96 to 3

In fact the movement is now arguably in favour of REMAIN.

ICM better than expected for INNERS?

Or just random noise from frustrated punters?

FrankBooth said:

The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

SeanT said:

midwinter said:

SouthamObserver said:

Concanvasser said:

Plato said- "As we near the business end of the campaign there has been an enormous rise in the number of people signing up to volunteer. As I write this, there are 709 people who have gone to the trouble of pledging their support or ability to help with campaigning in Newham. That is an increase of nearly 200 in one week in just one borough. I am told this is being repeated across London and the entire country."

I wasn't needed on our Vote Leave stand as they were too many people wanting to do it!

Just finished the morning delivery. Feeling very positive about the final two weeks.

Now's the time to lend every shoulder to the wheel. If you are for Leave, please volunteer. Every leaflet delivered and door knocked takes us one step nearer to getting our country back.

It's our country too, don't forget.

I hate this "we just want our country back" meme. It reminds me of the equally nauseating "it's our NHS" spiel used by Labour in 2015.
Most Remain voters are just as proud of their country and think it's more likely to succeed without playing Russian roulette with the economy. I couldn't give a flyer about Europe but think we're safer in currently.

Er, many many people - not all of them stupid - feel their country's parliamentary sovereignty and rightful democracy has indeed been slowly but surely eroded away. And they want it back.

You can dispute their opinion, but they are entitled to hold it.

Yep I get that. I respect their opinions and agree with some of what they say, it's the phrase that gets to me. The faux impression of plucky patriots fighting against uncaring federalist robots. Which is nonsense.

FrankBooth said:

The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

TheScreamingEagles said:

@DMcCaffreySKY: BREAK: So @LeaveEUOfficial take DOWN #Orlando tweet. Source tell me it was a junior member of staff who "over stepped the mark."

FrankBooth said:

The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

Scott_P said:

AA Gill in The Times

Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

Yes.

FF43 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pong said:

rcs1000 said:

@Patrick: this is the poll - http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/679104/End-EU-rule-FINALLY-Leave-camp-take-19-POINT-lead-Britons-flock-Brexit

It's Bruges Group commissioned, so I'd be a little bit cautious.

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/tables-bruges-group-poll

It wasn't the fact it was Bruges Group commissioned. Opinium would not allow their name to be sullied by leading questions or being influenced by who asked for the poll.

What destroys it is the fact that the Express reported it with no weighting or basic corrections as if it were a real poll result. It is no wonder Opinium were somewhat annoyed

This is the 240 word question from the Bruges Group poll. The Express combined (A) and (B) responses to get to the spurious 19% Leave lead figure. I am suspicious of polls with very involved questions because they steer the repondents too much (and quite possibly lose them too)> Also I don't think they summarised the options accurately

There are a number of options for trading with EU countries:

The Single Market allows for free movement of goods, services, people and capital between all participating European countries.

·Being part of the EU and its Single Market (which the UK is in now)
·Being part of the Single Market via the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) like Norway
·Having a separate Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU Single Market like that being negotiated between Canada and the EU

EU and Single Market
Abides by all rules
Free movement of people in the EU
Net contribution of £8.5bn per year
Votes in all decision-making bodies of the EU

European Free Trade Association and Single Market
Exempt from rules on agriculture, fisheries, home affairs and justice policies
Free movement of people in the EU
Net contribution of £5bn per year
Members are consulted on new rules

Free Trade Agreement
Exempt from all EU rules except those we agree to as part of the agreement
No free movement of people
No financial contribution
No votes in decision-making bodies

With this in mind, which arrangement would you prefer to access the Single Market?

(A) Remain in the EU and Remain in the Single Market (European Union/Single Market)
(B) Leave the EU, join EFTA, Remain in the Single Market (European Free Trade Association/Single Market)
(C) Leave the EU and have an FTA (Free Trade Agreement)
(D) Don't Know

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

Yes.

By confirming that having you broken the terms of the d-notice?

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

AA Gill in The Times

Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905

This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.

SeanT said:

It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

PlatoSaid said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

AA Gill in The Times

Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905

This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.

He also shot a baboon IIRC - just to see how it felt.

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

@yxfpmsveeijci
@GuidoFawkes ICM regretfully announce that the 12:30 #Brexit poll has been delayed due to leavers online.

Sorry but what does that mean? I thought ICM did phone polls...

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

Not really

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/condorcet-paradox-work-rock-paper-scissors-eu-referendum

Scott_P said:

So far 3 people have rubbished AA Gill on this thread. Perhaps because they ascribe to this theory, also exposed in his article

We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.

Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

Not really

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/condorcet-paradox-work-rock-paper-scissors-eu-referendum

Huge logical flaw in that link. It assumes that EEA won't be the most popular form because it might not win against Remain. Except of course if leave wins then we're not remaining all the remainers would need to chose a new option and EEA would be it for a large number. Besides a lot are going for remain due to fear of change, once the change has happened, the fear is gone.

EEA+ emergency break solves all problems.

PlatoSaid said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

I hate this "we just want our country back" meme.

AA Gill in The Times

Wanting the country back is the constant mantra of all the outies. Farage slurs it, Gove insinuates it. Of course I know what they mean. We all know what they mean. They mean back from Johnny Foreigner, back from the brink, back from the future, back-to-back, back to bosky hedges and dry stone walls and country lanes and church bells and warm beer and skittles and football rattles and cheery banter and clogs on cobbles. Back to vicars-and-tarts parties and Carry On fart jokes, back to Elgar and fudge and proper weather and herbaceous borders and cars called Morris. Back to victoria sponge and 22 yards to a wicket and 15 hands to a horse and 3ft to a yard and four fingers in a Kit Kat, back to gooseberries not avocados, back to deference and respect, to make do and mend and smiling bravely and biting your lip and suffering in silence and patronising foreigners with pity.

We all know what “getting our country back” means. It’s snorting a line of the most pernicious and debilitating Little English drug, nostalgia. The warm, crumbly, honey-coloured, collective “yesterday” with its fond belief that everything was better back then, that Britain (England, really) is a worse place now than it was at some foggy point in the past where we achieved peak Blighty. It’s the knowledge that the best of us have been and gone, that nothing we can build will be as lovely as a National Trust Georgian country house, no art will be as good as a Turner, no poem as wonderful as If, no writer a touch on Shakespeare or Dickens, nothing will grow as lovely as a cottage garden, no hero greater than Nelson, no politician better than Churchill, no view more throat-catching than the White Cliffs and that we will never manufacture anything as great as a Rolls-Royce or Flying Scotsman again.


http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aa-gill-argues-the-case-against-brexit-kmnp83zrt?shareToken=825855a5aa4073592be7878163b29905

This is the same A A Gill (a Scotsman with a grievance) who wrote an ENTIRE BOOK about the awfulness of the English, "red faced blimps, like screaming toddlers, no one will miss them when their country has gone" - it was nauseating

He's a weird horrible man. I know many people that know him and loathe him. Ignore.

He also shot a baboon IIRC - just to see how it felt.

edmundintokyo said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU

Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.

Sean_F said:

rcs1000 said:

weejonnie said:

MaxPB said:

SeanT said:

FrankBooth said:

The government has issued a d-notice on the reporting of the ICM poll. Far fetched?

Imagine if a pollster as respected as ICM got a truly extraordinary result (esp via phone) - something like 58-42 LEAVE/REMAIN.

It is arguable that this would be so explosive (especially after the 10 point LEAVE lead on Friday) the government would have a right to intervene, and delay its release, to prepare the markets and the BoE.

I don't think this is what's happening, just saying it's not entirely impossible.

Nah, I doubt that would happen. Given the market moves I expect it has Remain back in the lead with a 3-5 point swing.

A 3 point Remain lead on a phone poll wouldn't be good for Remain.

No, it wouldn't. It would confirm the momentum continues to be towards Leave.

The last ICM phone poll had Leave 4% ahead (although that may well have been an outlier).

edmundintokyo said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU

Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.

Alanbrooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

edmundintokyo said:

FF43 said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard Tyndall made an interesting point last night. Post-Brexit you can't just discount the views of Remainers. They will still represent a large part of the population. They plus a portion of the Leave vote may actually represent a majority for EEA/EFTA. As leavers constantly tell us, this is not an election. There is no Leave manifesto. All Leave means is ceasing to be an EU member state.

I am not sure that I agree, but there is an argument to be made here and it could provide Boris with some real wriggle room once he gets negotiations underway and he comes under pressure from the City and industry.

It's pretty clear to me we will go into EEA/EFTA with an emergency brake on migration, if necessary, and it is highly likely we will end up staying there.

As that voodoo Express poll shows, this position would command the consent of a large majority of Brits.

That may be right. EEA/EFTA would give more control over welfare etc, but in practice would make little difference as most migrants from the EU comes here looking for jobs, which they would still be free to do. It's a second best option that I could definitely live with. But it would leave 25%-30% of the population very angry indeed. That's very good news for UKIP and as it would be the Tories who did the deal they would be seen as the betrayers.

I think there will be a scramble to get on EEA after a Leave vote. Remainers will know the game is up for continued membership and will work with those Leavers concerned about minimising damage to the economy to get the next best thing.

The problem is, I don't think EEA will work for Britain. It retains all the things people dislike about the EU - remote decision making, giving up control over parts of immigration - while removing the institutional framework that provides the discipline to keep the EU together. The Norwegian prime minister and others have talked about EEA needing a spirit of compromise, and good faith. The illusion of Britain thinking it can do what it wants in the EEA when it is committed to doing the same as before I think will over-stress the EEA, which is a more fragile arrangement than the EU

Great outcome for the EU though, much the same as the status quo but the British can't veto things.

Good for the EU in the long run as it would promote a two tier Europe.

Which is basically what is needed

Concanvasser said:

Sorry if my 'get our country back phrase' has riled you midwinter.

However the image of plucky patriots fighting uncaring federalist robots is anything but faux.

Contrast. I am spending my time hand delivering hundreds of Vote Leave leaflets which provide information about the EU and why my team believes those facts support a vote to Leave. My leaflets say they are from the Leave campaign.

The remain side by contrast sent out their information leaflet equally as partisan yet(branded as Her Majesty's Government, to every house in the country at tax payers expense.

Forgive me my phrase but Leave is the campaign of the little battalions, the battered old past it paddle steamers going across the English channel for one more load off the beaches and yes of those nostalgic for a better Britain that can and will be again. And we are going to do it.