politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -

Farage's passport again...

Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

Night all.

Farage doing a fact check in favour of "remain" effectively! arf., that Tele journo is poor but not quite as bad as Izzard.

John_N4 said:

This kind of thing by Jeremy Corbyn is bound to win some votes for Leave:

http://i.imgur.com/TKkldpc.jpg

Mail Online comments make for interesting reading.

Luckyguy1983 said:

I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf

YossariansChild said:

Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

Night all.

Well done YC!

Did you see Gilmore had his best performance yet in Cali? #draftgilmore

PlatoSaid said:

Mortimer said:

Izzard is causing havoc on the panel, and not in a good way.

I'm reading Twitter and crying with laughter

Ms. Plato,

We've been discussing Bligegate. Would you like to give your side?

Eddie Izzard.... make it stop....

Danny565 said:

Eddie Izzard.... make it stop....

He is looking like Gillian Duffy's flighty, younger sister on a bad day.

Danny565 said:

"Yes it is." "No it isn't." "Yes it is." "No it isn't."

Genuinely one of the most substantial exchanges of the referendum so far.

LOL!

Tattooed lady keep your legs closed.

HYUFD said:

YossariansChild said:

Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

Night all.

In England maybe, in the UK as a whole less clear

Yes dear in Merrie Little England.

'Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
For we are the people of (Little) England, that never have spoken yet.'

Luckyguy1983 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf

Oddly enough under the last Labour government it was very easy to drill down to project and sub-project level, never mind country or even multilateral/bilateral level. In fact as government web sites go the DfID one under Gordon Brown was superbly informative.

It changed very quickly once Cameron and Clegg got in and implemented the silly 0.7% policy. I found it had become a sort of giant press release and actual detail was very difficult to find and when compared to Labour's offering, actually impossible.

HurstLlama said:

KentRising said:

I can vouch for Ridgeview. Was a wine journalist in a former life and have visited the winery to see how their sparkling 'Merret' is made. The rosé sparkling in particular was a winner. The French don't like it up 'em.

Glad you agree about RidgeView,

Now, how does one go about getting a job as a wine journalist? Is it compulsory to go on about "subtle hints of forest fruits, but with a tang of peach and with a wonderful finish" and all that rubbish? Actually a better question, because I can write that sort of crap all day long, does it have to be accurate? Does anyone take any notice? Also do you get full expenses paid?

A wine journalist could be the ideal paying hobby for my declining years, as long as I didn't have to get on an aeroplane.

Unfortunately I can't help you with that as I was writing about wine from the production end, as an agricultural commodity, rather than the consumption end. So it was the unsexy stuff like harvest tonnage of wine grapes and import/export of bulk and bottled, not sniffing, swilling and spitting the end product! My hunch though is that most of it doesn't have to be accurate, no, it's subjective and - largely - a lot of bollocks.

I'm so pleased that Liz Kendall is on This Week - far better tele performer than Alan Johnson!

YossariansChild said:

HYUFD said:

YossariansChild said:

Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

Night all.

In England maybe, in the UK as a whole less clear

Yes dear in Merrie Little England.

'Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
For we are the people of (Little) England, that never have spoken yet.'

They may well speak but I can see a result like MikeK has posted below once the Scots and Ulster have spoken too!

NE Lincs Lab hold
Lab 758
UKIP 462
Con 312
Gre 40
TUSC 26

MP_SE said:

John_N4 said:

This kind of thing by Jeremy Corbyn is bound to win some votes for Leave:

http://i.imgur.com/TKkldpc.jpg

Mail Online comments make for interesting reading.

Well from what I also glanced at today they hate Major and they hate Blair and they hate Cameron, nothing Mail readers like more than a good hating....

Fox
Clinton 42 Trump 39
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-224156

Luckyguy1983 said:

HurstLlama said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf

Oddly enough under the last Labour government it was very easy to drill down to project and sub-project level, never mind country or even multilateral/bilateral level. In fact as government web sites go the DfID one under Gordon Brown was superbly informative.

It changed very quickly once Cameron and Clegg got in and implemented the silly 0.7% policy. I found it had become a sort of giant press release and actual detail was very difficult to find and when compared to Labour's offering, actually impossible.

There must be a way of finding the info.

FoI Perhaps? Maybe the information is there to the level of detail that it was under Labour but I gave up trying to find it.

Lambeth Gipsy Hill Green surge but Lab hold

Lab 1220
Green 1184
Con 210
LDem 84
UKIP 73
Ind 24
TUSC 19

FPT

RobD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Apparently the Labour MP joining the Out campaign is none other than....John Cryer, chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Very credible.

I wonder whether the BBC will choose to describe him as a "senior" Labour MP? And give as much prominence to his declaring for Leave as they gave to the declaration of a Conservative MP for Remain today? Or even report his joining the Leave campaign at all.

I think a defection from one side to another is more of a story than someone simply declaring they are for leave/remain.

No, there are plenty of Conservative MPs on the Remain/Government side. The fact that one has decided to change her mind over a few weeks shouldn't really be that big an issue, and it's certainly not one worthy of leading the morning BBC news bulletins.

By contrast, with very few Labour MPs coming out for Leave, the fact that the Chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party has switched from undeclared to Leave should be a much more substantive story. But it won't lead the BBC news bulletins, and I suspect won't even make them at all.

Essex CC UKIP gain from Lab

UKIP 2034
Lab 1800
Con 878
Green 264

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

MP_SE said:

I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.

Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.

If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.

The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

It's only a few percent swing, but enough.

The phones were more accurate than online last May

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

MP_SE said:

I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.

Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.

If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.

The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

It's only a few percent swing, but enough.

The phones were more accurate than online last May

A common misconception.

They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

They were less accurate with Right/Left.

They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

MP_SE said:

I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.

Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.

If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.

The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

It's only a few percent swing, but enough.

The phones were more accurate than online last May

A common misconception.

They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

They were less accurate with Right/Left.

They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall

Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

MP_SE said:

I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.

Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.

If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.

The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

It's only a few percent swing, but enough.

The phones were more accurate than online last May

A common misconception.

They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

They were less accurate with Right/Left.

They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall

Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136

UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."

Leaving aside you're misquoting a rampant antisemite, there is one thing that has always bugged me about that speech. How hard are "warrior poets"? Are they better fighters than warriors who only write prose? Do we take into account things like scansion, metre, genre? How are they recruited? "Guys, we need somebody who can swing an axe and write sonnets"?

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."

Leaving aside you're misquoting a rampant antisemite, there is one thing that has always bugged me about that speech. How hard are "warrior poets"? Are they better fighters than warriors who only write prose? Do we take into account things like scansion, metre, genre? How are they recruited? "Guys, we need somebody who can swing an axe and write sonnets"?

Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a Single European Superstate!

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

Lib Dem landslide hold in Surrey Docks

LDem 1523
Lab 619
Con 380
Green 218
UKIP 187
Ind 10

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

MP_SE said:

I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.

Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.

If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.

The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

It's only a few percent swing, but enough.

The phones were more accurate than online last May

A common misconception.

They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

They were less accurate with Right/Left.

They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall

Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136

UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it

Look at the graph. The last few online polls were within 1%, the last few phone polls were more than 1% out.

The last online polls had UKIP on 13.5%, the last phones 11.5% so little real difference, the former a bit over, the latter a bit under

Online still closer

By contrast phones were closer to the Tory score:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596864382434418689

Twitter fight already
Trump: Obama just endorsed Crooked Hillary. He wants four more years of Obama—but nobody else does!
Hillary: Delete your account.
Trump: How long did it take your staff of 823 people to think that up–and where are your 33,000 emails that you deleted?

chestnut said:

The Greens nearly took a seat off Labour on a 27% swing in London.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 30m30 minutes ago
Gipsy Hill (Lambeth) result:
LAB: 43.4% (-23.6)
GRN: 42.1% (+31.2)
CON: 7.5% (-5.6)
LDEM: 3.0% (-1.9)
UKIP: 2.6% (-1.6)
IND: 0.9%

Corbynism sweeping the nation, dirty sleazy kippers on the slide ;-)

Goodnight all. For those who didn't see it the second half of This Week was far more nuanced than most of the vapid bilge that has been the bulk of the Brexit debate in recent weeks.

HYUFD said:

Twitter fight already
Trump: Obama just endorsed Crooked Hillary. He wants four more years of Obama—but nobody else does!
Hillary: Delete your account.
Trump: How long did it take your staff of 823 people to think that up–and where are your 33,000 emails that you deleted?

Shots fired, repeat shots fired...one thing for certain this POTUS campaign is certainly not going to be dull!!!

PlatoSaid said:

OH DEAR

@angelaeagle storms off after debate saying "that was a Fucking Disaster"

#ITVEURef #VoteLeave @StrongerIn https://t.co/SxYDG6fWjX

Most insightful comment she made all night!

williamglenn said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."

Leaving aside you're misquoting a rampant antisemite, there is one thing that has always bugged me about that speech. How hard are "warrior poets"? Are they better fighters than warriors who only write prose? Do we take into account things like scansion, metre, genre? How are they recruited? "Guys, we need somebody who can swing an axe and write sonnets"?

Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a Single European Superstate!

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

Strong Britain believed in standing up for the Poles. Leave Britain believes in sending them home.

Who is this "LEAVE BRITAIN"?

so is voter registration closed now?

Warning; Personal Opinion:

The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

Mikest1982 said:

Warning; Personal Opinion:

The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.

https://yougov.co.uk/turnout-o-meter/?turnout=81&overallremaing=2&agefactor=1&classfactor=1

This fun to play around with. It shows on a 2% remain vote the turnout needs to be 91% for remain to win. LOL.

nunu said:

Mikest1982 said:

Warning; Personal Opinion:

The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.

I think the bulwark against Communism is properly called the US of A, not the EU.

My Leave journey is bright and sunny. You seem to be the one with very dark journeys.

Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.

MTimT said:

nunu said:

Mikest1982 said:

Warning; Personal Opinion:

The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.

I think the bulwark against Communism is properly called the US of A, not the EU.

My Leave journey is bright and sunny. You seem to be the one with very dark journeys.

There's been many examples in history of revolutions with "very bright and sunny futures".. most of them ended quite darkly. Given the situation, by what circumstance do you pretend this possible future will be any better?