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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    edited June 2016
    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,163
    MikeK said:

    My latest forecast for the ref, result:

    Remain 50.23% - Leave 49.77%.

    "decimals are proof that economists have a sense of humour"
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited June 2016

    nunu said:

    Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.

    Turnout will be about 80% let's be frank. It'll be close to the Scottish election turnout. This is a big BIG deal.
    Not sure about EU Referendum hitting anywhere near the dizzy heights of the Indy Ref with 80%+ turnout. But I agree with you, turnout is going to be far higher than originally anticipated. And all because the EU campaign debate has achieved one important aim, it has finally engaged a lot of regular GE voters. And all because this specific group are finally beginning to realise that this really is a big BIG decision for the UK.
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.

    Turnout will be about 80% let's be frank. It'll be close to the Scottish election turnout. This is a big BIG deal.
    Not sure about EU Referendum turnout hitting 80% yet... But I agree with you, turnout is going to be far higher than originally anticipated. And all because the EU campaign debate has achieved one important aim, it has finally engaged and made the electorate realise that this really is a big BIG decision for the UK.
    Which in itself is amazing. For better or worse, even if we leave, the fact that more people have engaged before is a consolation (though both sides will of course argue very minor).

    This is a massive turning point in this country. If we do leave we will not have the leaders to guide us through it. Boris Johnson to do this? And Michael Gove as Chancellor? Really?

    Or wait.. How about an election and Jeremy Corbyn?

    At what point does this go from practical to ridiculous and "having a laugh"? Our current leaders are mostly useless, but of them all at least Cameron is semi-credible. Student politics and protests are all fun and games, but how do we vote when it impacts YOU and your livelihood?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    nunu said:

    Warning; Personal Opinion:

    The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

    If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

    We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

    Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

    Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.
    I think the bulwark against Communism is properly called the US of A, not the EU.

    My Leave journey is bright and sunny. You seem to be the one with very dark journeys.
    There's been many examples in history of revolutions with "very bright and sunny futures".. most of them ended quite darkly. Given the situation, by what circumstance do you pretend this possible future will be any better?
    The fact that the world is ever more complex and rapidly changing, and that the EU with its sclerotic policy-making, one-size fits all, bureaucratic dirigiste approach is the model least able to adapt and thrive in the new, exciting world. Britain on its own is much better placed to make, and change, policy quickly to adapt to new challenges and opportunities.

    Just look at the field of synthetic biology, claimed by Willets when he was Science and Tech minister to be one of the pillars of the future economy and into which the UK government is pouring millions of pounds of research grants. The US, UK and Germany are the only big players at the moment. Yet EU directives all but guarantee that the commercialization of this new bioeconomy cannot take place in Europe. At the iGEM competition in 2014, 5 of the top 6 teams came from the EU, but none of their winning entries would be legal under current EU law. Paris Betancourt for example, had a self-replicating phage which could kill antibiotic resistant TB. Heidelberg had moss which if planted on rafts in rivers would take up heavy metal pollutants out of the water. None of the 5 products of these teams' research will be productized in Europe. What is the EU doing about this? Relaxing the regulations? No, of course not. Let's make them more draconian.

    All the top kids from Imperial and Cambridge, Heidelberg and Muenster will end up working for US or Chinese companies, and the profits and taxation base will be lost to the EU.

    Now, if you want a dark future, force countries whose economies are not competitive with Germany's to stay in the euro. Then you'll see true social upheaval, hatred and, eventually, war.
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    Explain how we are fundamentally unique from the other countries which did this? What makes us different? How are we innately smarter, better prepared and better equipped than those before us?

    The EU is not perfect - but we are one of it's largest economies. We have already used our influence for the good (the direction of the EU HAS improved) let's keep doing that!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
    @Oxford Union:
    The results are in!

    Motion: This House Believes The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union.

    Ayes: 26%
    Noes: 74%

    The motion falls!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Explain how we are fundamentally unique from the other countries which did this? What makes us different? How are we innately smarter, better prepared and better equipped than those before us?

    The EU is not perfect - but we are one of it's largest economies. We have already used our influence for the good (the direction of the EU HAS improved) let's keep doing that!

    Bigger is not always better. In a barrel race, you do not want to be on a carthorse.

    The UK doesn't have to be unique or innately smarter. It just needs to be adaptive and smart enough.

    Finally, I really don't understand your inference that we need to be better than those before us. Britain has a glorious economic, scientific, technological and cultural history. If we could only equal that, or even come close to it, we have nothing to fear about competing on our own in the big world.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    Anything worth watching on the telly last night?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
    @Oxford Union:
    The results are in!

    Motion: This House Believes The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union.

    Ayes: 26%
    Noes: 74%

    The motion falls!
    Ah, the vote! Maybe in spite of Salmond and Heseltine ;)
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    MTimT said:

    Explain how we are fundamentally unique from the other countries which did this? What makes us different? How are we innately smarter, better prepared and better equipped than those before us?

    The EU is not perfect - but we are one of it's largest economies. We have already used our influence for the good (the direction of the EU HAS improved) let's keep doing that!

    Bigger is not always better. In a barrel race, you do not want to be on a carthorse.

    The UK doesn't have to be unique or innately smarter. It just needs to be adaptive and smart enough.

    Finally, I really don't understand your inference that we need to be better than those before us. Britain has a glorious economic, scientific, technological and cultural history. If we could only equal that, or even come close to it, we have nothing to fear about competing on our own in the big world.
    Following WW2, Churchill argued that we must build a "United States of Europe".

    How about rather than being "better before us" we simply match up?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.

    Turnout will be about 80% let's be frank. It'll be close to the Scottish election turnout. This is a big BIG deal.
    Not sure about EU Referendum turnout hitting 80% yet... But I agree with you, turnout is going to be far higher than originally anticipated. And all because the EU campaign debate has achieved one important aim, it has finally engaged and made the electorate realise that this really is a big BIG decision for the UK.
    Which in itself is amazing. For better or worse, even if we leave, the fact that more people have engaged before is a consolation (though both sides will of course argue very minor).

    This is a massive turning point in this country. If we do leave we will not have the leaders to guide us through it. Boris Johnson to do this? And Michael Gove as Chancellor? Really?

    Or wait.. How about an election and Jeremy Corbyn?

    At what point does this go from practical to ridiculous and "having a laugh"? Our current leaders are mostly useless, but of them all at least Cameron is semi-credible. Student politics and protests are all fun and games, but how do we vote when it impacts YOU and your livelihood?
    It really is not difficult. Every voter votes on their own criteria.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170

    Anything worth watching on the telly last night?

    This Week! ;)
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    MTimT said:

    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.

    Turnout will be about 80% let's be frank. It'll be close to the Scottish election turnout. This is a big BIG deal.
    Not sure about EU Referendum turnout hitting 80% yet... But I agree with you, turnout is going to be far higher than originally anticipated. And all because the EU campaign debate has achieved one important aim, it has finally engaged and made the electorate realise that this really is a big BIG decision for the UK.
    Which in itself is amazing. For better or worse, even if we leave, the fact that more people have engaged before is a consolation (though both sides will of course argue very minor).

    This is a massive turning point in this country. If we do leave we will not have the leaders to guide us through it. Boris Johnson to do this? And Michael Gove as Chancellor? Really?

    Or wait.. How about an election and Jeremy Corbyn?

    At what point does this go from practical to ridiculous and "having a laugh"? Our current leaders are mostly useless, but of them all at least Cameron is semi-credible. Student politics and protests are all fun and games, but how do we vote when it impacts YOU and your livelihood?
    It really is not difficult. Every voter votes on their own criteria.
    ;) Glad we agree at least on basic democracy!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,420

    I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

    Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

    To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf
    Oddly enough under the last Labour government it was very easy to drill down to project and sub-project level, never mind country or even multilateral/bilateral level. In fact as government web sites go the DfID one under Gordon Brown was superbly informative.

    It changed very quickly once Cameron and Clegg got in and implemented the silly 0.7% policy. I found it had become a sort of giant press release and actual detail was very difficult to find and when compared to Labour's offering, actually impossible.
    There must be a way of finding the info.
    FoI Perhaps? Maybe the information is there to the level of detail that it was under Labour but I gave up trying to find it.
    Try the devtracker website. https://devtracker.dfid.gov.uk/search?query=European+union
  • Do we have a Before as well the After debate vote from the Oxford Union?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
    @Oxford Union:
    The results are in!

    Motion: This House Believes The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union.

    Ayes: 26%
    Noes: 74%

    The motion falls!
    Ah, the vote! Maybe in spite of Salmond and Heseltine ;)
    Well, from Paul Mason in the Guardian:

    Paul Mason: ‘If you read the body language you came away with one image: leave are relaxed, remain worried’

    Of all the debates, this was the one that mattered. Bernice, of Emmerdale, had just given her man the elbow over his gay fling with a plumber, when ITV segued – sneakily without an ad break – into an EU referendum debate aimed squarely at the people who will actually decide it: the Emmerdale demographic.....
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    fitalass said:

    nunu said:

    Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.

    Turnout will be about 80% let's be frank. It'll be close to the Scottish election turnout. This is a big BIG deal.
    Not sure about EU Referendum turnout hitting 80% yet... But I agree with you, turnout is going to be far higher than originally anticipated. And all because the EU campaign debate has achieved one important aim, it has finally engaged and made the electorate realise that this really is a big BIG decision for the UK.
    Which in itself is amazing. For better or worse, even if we leave, the fact that more people have engaged before is a consolation (though both sides will of course argue very minor).

    This is a massive turning point in this country. If we do leave we will not have the leaders to guide us through it. Boris Johnson to do this? And Michael Gove as Chancellor? Really?

    Or wait.. How about an election and Jeremy Corbyn?

    At what point does this go from practical to ridiculous and "having a laugh"? Our current leaders are mostly useless, but of them all at least Cameron is semi-credible. Student politics and protests are all fun and games, but how do we vote when it impacts YOU and your livelihood?
    It really is not difficult. Every voter votes on their own criteria.
    ;) Glad we agree at least on basic democracy!
    :) It's amazing how many on here have a problem with that simple concept. Even Nick Palmer ex-MP has complained about low information voters. He is far from alone in bemoaning them.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
    @Oxford Union:
    The results are in!

    Motion: This House Believes The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union.

    Ayes: 26%
    Noes: 74%

    The motion falls!
    Ah, the vote! Maybe in spite of Salmond and Heseltine ;)
    Well, from Paul Mason in the Guardian:

    Paul Mason: ‘If you read the body language you came away with one image: leave are relaxed, remain worried’

    Of all the debates, this was the one that mattered. Bernice, of Emmerdale, had just given her man the elbow over his gay fling with a plumber, when ITV segued – sneakily without an ad break – into an EU referendum debate aimed squarely at the people who will actually decide it: the Emmerdale demographic.....
    Sorry, that was a reply to @CarlottaVance
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
    @Oxford Union:
    The results are in!

    Motion: This House Believes The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union.

    Ayes: 26%
    Noes: 74%

    The motion falls!
    Ah, the vote! Maybe in spite of Salmond and Heseltine ;)
    Well, from Paul Mason in the Guardian:

    Paul Mason: ‘If you read the body language you came away with one image: leave are relaxed, remain worried’

    Of all the debates, this was the one that mattered. Bernice, of Emmerdale, had just given her man the elbow over his gay fling with a plumber, when ITV segued – sneakily without an ad break – into an EU referendum debate aimed squarely at the people who will actually decide it: the Emmerdale demographic.....
    Sorry, that was a reply to @CarlottaVance
    Not a problem! I do agree that leave were quite relaxed in the debate.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
    @Oxford Union:
    The results are in!

    Motion: This House Believes The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union.

    Ayes: 26%
    Noes: 74%

    The motion falls!
    Ah, the vote! Maybe in spite of Salmond and Heseltine ;)
    Well, from Paul Mason in the Guardian:

    Paul Mason: ‘If you read the body language you came away with one image: leave are relaxed, remain worried’

    Of all the debates, this was the one that mattered. Bernice, of Emmerdale, had just given her man the elbow over his gay fling with a plumber, when ITV segued – sneakily without an ad break – into an EU referendum debate aimed squarely at the people who will actually decide it: the Emmerdale demographic.....
    Sorry, that was a reply to @CarlottaVance
    Not a problem! I do agree that leave were quite relaxed in the debate.
    Aye, but do you think that Bernice should:
    a. Leave?

    b. Remain?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,170
    edited June 2016

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    scotslass said:

    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?

    How can you know which side won (or at least that it was thumping) if you haven't seen it? *innocent face*
    @Oxford Union:
    The results are in!

    Motion: This House Believes The United Kingdom Should Leave the European Union.

    Ayes: 26%
    Noes: 74%

    The motion falls!
    Ah, the vote! Maybe in spite of Salmond and Heseltine ;)
    Well, from Paul Mason in the Guardian:

    Paul Mason: ‘If you read the body language you came away with one image: leave are relaxed, remain worried’

    Of all the debates, this was the one that mattered. Bernice, of Emmerdale, had just given her man the elbow over his gay fling with a plumber, when ITV segued – sneakily without an ad break – into an EU referendum debate aimed squarely at the people who will actually decide it: the Emmerdale demographic.....
    Sorry, that was a reply to @CarlottaVance
    Not a problem! I do agree that leave were quite relaxed in the debate.
    Aye, but do you think that Bernice should:
    a. Leave?

    b. Remain?
    Well, you'd have to balance up the pros and cons. If he is a looker, then probably b)

    :D:p
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Oxford Union backs Remain shock horror!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Michael Moore says that Trump can win in November - he thinks the Rust Belt could go for him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,414

    MTimT said:

    Explain how we are fundamentally unique from the other countries which did this? What makes us different? How are we innately smarter, better prepared and better equipped than those before us?

    The EU is not perfect - but we are one of it's largest economies. We have already used our influence for the good (the direction of the EU HAS improved) let's keep doing that!

    Bigger is not always better. In a barrel race, you do not want to be on a carthorse.

    The UK doesn't have to be unique or innately smarter. It just needs to be adaptive and smart enough.

    Finally, I really don't understand your inference that we need to be better than those before us. Britain has a glorious economic, scientific, technological and cultural history. If we could only equal that, or even come close to it, we have nothing to fear about competing on our own in the big world.
    Following WW2, Churchill argued that we must build a "United States of Europe".

    How about rather than being "better before us" we simply match up?
    But Churchill said we should be "friends" with such a Europe, never did he say we should be part of it!

    http://churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714
    tlg86 said:

    Oxford Union backs Remain shock horror!

    three line whip for the PPE students:-)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    PlatoSaid said:

    OH DEAR

    @angelaeagle storms off after debate saying "that was a Fucking Disaster"

    #ITVEURef #VoteLeave @StrongerIn https://t.co/SxYDG6fWjX

    Most insightful comment she made all night!
    I trust everything that that Twitter says. After all, the profile is only:

    "As a loyal citizen I have experience of and despise the self serving lying spineless MPs in the House of Traitors. Exposing the lies of the LIB/LAB/CON"
This discussion has been closed.