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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -14 days and counting)
Basildon, Laindon Park and Fryerns (Lab defence) on Essex
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Greens 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of ward at last election (2013) :
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Thanks Harry for keeping up with these, it's a great record.
Quote of the day "The Lib Dems have a London disaster area"
Clinton 42 Trump 38
http://www.rasmussenrepPenorts.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
Pennsylvania PPP
Clinton 44 Trump 44
4-way Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6 Stein 3
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf
Lincs: Labour hold
Gipsy Hill: Labour hold
Surrey Docks: LibDem hold
4.4 on Betfair for the Donald, good for a trading bet even if you don't think it's value in itself.
http://www.richieallen.co.uk/
Children's act 1908
http://www.ash.org.uk/files/documents/ASH_741.pdf
@HYUFD
*cough* Boris was in the NW last week:
http://www.lep.co.uk/your-lancashire/preston/latest-boris-johnson-calls-for-preston-to-join-the-leave-campaign-1-7942383
http://www.itv.com/news/granada/update/2016-06-01/interview-boris-johnson-takes-his-brexit-bus-to-lancashire/
Anyway debate! Bring it home Boris...
The idea is simple: You're on the go and there is an app that might be useful to you but you don't know it exists. Nearby will let you know about such apps.
https://android.googleblog.com/2016/06/introducing-nearby-new-way-to-discover.html
Within 50 feet of a politician, will it advice you about apps such bullshit detector 2016?
It's a last century answer.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633852/Labour-leadership-duo-Tom-Jerry-road-amid-backlash-half-hearted-EU-referendum-campaign.html
I switch off when Nicola speaks, her aggressive approach is unsettling.
Fighting back against attempts to smear with Farage labels.
John_M said:
» show previous quotes
Well, given that the front page of the report acknowledged that it was funded by the ESRC through the 'UK in a changing Europe', it's at least a point.
I think we'll have to disagree; it doesn't quantify the risks in any meaningful way, lay reader or not. It just asserts there are risks.
I don't have a particular issue with the IFS report per se. My concern is that modelling has an inglorious record (to save others trawling through the report, the forecasts for Britains GDP in 2030 range from -9.5% to +0.6% compared to noBrexit, ie the opportunity cost ranges from ~.75% p.a. to very slightly positive). If financial models were better, I'd have more confidence in them.
The intro tickled me where he basically says we all got the 2008 crash wrong, but we all agree now, so listen to us this time.
Paul Johnson has spent his whole career in the civil service, think-tanks, or academia, including several big papers during the New Labour years.
I'm not saying he's been bought, or paid for, but that does breed a certain kind of thinking. And the IFS, in particular, has a real hold over Government, despite reaching questionable conclusions in the past. For example, it has came out basically saying marriage doesn't matter a few years ago.
The Spectator was right in 2011:
"There is no great conspiracy here, but a simple truth: organisations which rely on tax money will always make the case for higher taxes. The ‘institutes’ funded by research grants
(which means, usually, tax money) will always argue for more expensive meddling by the state. These groups dislike the idea that society will be better and stronger if people are given greater freedom, and allowed to keep more of their money. Freedom, to the institutes, is messy and chaotic. There must be projects, judged by complicated spreadsheets, with billions in taxpayers’ money behind them.
The most striking example is the Institute for Fiscal Studies. It has tremendous influence over government life, and in the era where Gordon Brown was concealing basic facts from the people whose money he was spending, it was relied upon to give a clearer picture. But the sheer volume and quality of its reports gave it power over the government that is not, even now, understood. Its device for measuring poverty — to calculate how many millions were above and below a ‘poverty line’ — took over the entire debate. Instead of tackling poverty, Brown tried to manipulate the IFS spreadsheets, so those just beneath the poverty line could be nudged above it and described as being ‘lifted out of poverty’. Those affected would be amazed to find themselves so described."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2011/07/leading-article-the-power-of-ideas/
Hastening my exit at the moment...
Angela, Amber and Nicola too hectoring.
Farage's Cologne comments, the risible £350m NHS claim and now the MP's joining at the 'last minute' have really annoyed me on the leave side, even though obviously I'm passionately for the leave campaign. Obviously the ridiculous economic scaremongering, altering the deadline for voter registration, and fear campaign that the remain campaign have run as well as demonising Farage and the risible 'little Englander' mentality haven't surprised me in the least. But this is a campaign which has plumbed the depths in British political history in my lifetime as far as I'm concerned.
I remember thinking that when 24 hour news came in over 20 years ago now with Sky News that it would give time for serious evaluation and examination of arguments and debates. Its funny how my initial view proved to be 180 degrees wrong, and just how dumbed down the mainstream media has become. But for me personally, that's a wider reflection on where we stand in the time honoured 309.6 year cycle that appears to govern the rise and fall of civilizations and countries. If we view the founding of the UK as the Act of Union between England and Scotland on 1st May 1707, then the end of that cycle falls due on 5th / 6th December this year. I think that something interesting is going to happen around then. In my dreams that will be the date when that notorious address on Finchley Road finally comes out into the mainstream..........allow me to dream for once!
Also Remain acting like this is a GE attacking the Tories first Leave second.
Someone was arguing in the pub this evening that in the 60's the legal limit was 13.
Its like Remain havent shown up.
Tremendous performance.
I bet Cameron is QUAKING!
That's a big advantage.
Interesting.
Absolutely, and we'd do better shot of the EU. But you won't hear that in the debate going on now.
Quite!