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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -

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  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Farage's passport again...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Benn doing better than in the Neil interview.

    Eddy Izzard a complete disaster.
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    edited June 2016
    Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

    Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

    Night all.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I can vouch for Ridgeview. Was a wine journalist in a former life and have visited the winery to see how their sparkling 'Merret' is made. The rosé sparkling in particular was a winner. The French don't like it up 'em.

    Glad you agree about RidgeView,

    Now, how does one go about getting a job as a wine journalist? Is it compulsory to go on about "subtle hints of forest fruits, but with a tang of peach and with a wonderful finish" and all that rubbish? Actually a better question, because I can write that sort of crap all day long, does it have to be accurate? Does anyone take any notice? Also do you get full expenses paid?

    A wine journalist could be the ideal paying hobby for my declining years, as long as I didn't have to get on an aeroplane.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    rcs1000 said:


    £285 million pounds on an airport that can't open.

    The German one? No.

    Some EU nonsense? No.

    It seems we're capable of screwing up all by ourselves...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36493860

    St Helena. GDP is about £10m. And they managed to spend £285m on an airport.

    That's quite an achievement. That would be like London spending £20trillion on an airport.
    Not "they" - the British Government paid for the airport!
    I just want to remind you that St Helena is British.
    More details here
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Helena_Airport
    I've been following it for years.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Farage doing a fact check in favour of "remain" effectively! arf., that Tele journo is poor but not quite as bad as Izzard.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    John_N4 said:

    This kind of thing by Jeremy Corbyn is bound to win some votes for Leave:

    http://i.imgur.com/TKkldpc.jpg

    Avoid Sikh temples if you are a non-Sikh politician.

    https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/ad_166313250.jpg
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    John_N4 said:

    This kind of thing by Jeremy Corbyn is bound to win some votes for Leave:

    http://i.imgur.com/TKkldpc.jpg

    Mail Online comments make for interesting reading.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Mortimer said:

    Izzard is causing havoc on the panel, and not in a good way.

    I'm reading Twitter and crying with laughter
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,266

    I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

    Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

    To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    Tim_B said:

    rcs1000 said:


    £285 million pounds on an airport that can't open.

    The German one? No.

    Some EU nonsense? No.

    It seems we're capable of screwing up all by ourselves...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36493860

    St Helena. GDP is about £10m. And they managed to spend £285m on an airport.

    That's quite an achievement. That would be like London spending £20trillion on an airport.
    Not "they" - the British Government paid for the airport!
    No - the British TAXPAYER paid - the government didn't pay for anything, they have no money of their own.
    Ooops, you are quite right!

    "There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

    Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

    Night all.

    Well done YC!

    Did you see Gilmore had his best performance yet in Cali? #draftgilmore
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,942
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mortimer said:

    Izzard is causing havoc on the panel, and not in a good way.

    I'm reading Twitter and crying with laughter
    Ms. Plato,

    We've been discussing Bligegate. Would you like to give your side? :smiley:
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I can vouch for Ridgeview. Was a wine journalist in a former life and have visited the winery to see how their sparkling 'Merret' is made. The rosé sparkling in particular was a winner. The French don't like it up 'em.

    Glad you agree about RidgeView,

    Now, how does one go about getting a job as a wine journalist? Is it compulsory to go on about "subtle hints of forest fruits, but with a tang of peach and with a wonderful finish" and all that rubbish? Actually a better question, because I can write that sort of crap all day long, does it have to be accurate? Does anyone take any notice? Also do you get full expenses paid?

    A wine journalist could be the ideal paying hobby for my declining years, as long as I didn't have to get on an aeroplane.
    The only peril of being a wine journalist is the nightmare scenario of James May being next to you with his whistle just in case you descend into wine-speak.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Eddie Izzard.... make it stop....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

    Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

    Night all.

    In England maybe, in the UK as a whole less clear
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Eddie Izzard.... make it stop....

    He is looking like Gillian Duffy's flighty, younger sister on a bad day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    "Yes it is." "No it isn't." "Yes it is." "No it isn't."

    Genuinely one of the most substantial exchanges of the referendum so far.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Danny565 said:

    "Yes it is." "No it isn't." "Yes it is." "No it isn't."

    Genuinely one of the most substantial exchanges of the referendum so far.

    LOL! :)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Mortimer said:

    Izzard is causing havoc on the panel, and not in a good way.

    I'm reading Twitter and crying with laughter
    Ms. Plato,

    We've been discussing Bligegate. Would you like to give your side? :smiley:
    Mr Meeks threw a total hissy fit at just before 7am about something I said. He said no one cared what I thought as it was all vapid bilge.

    And then we fell about laughing and a meme was born :smiley:
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Tattooed lady keep your legs closed.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    PlatoSaid said:

    Mortimer said:

    Izzard is causing havoc on the panel, and not in a good way.

    I'm reading Twitter and crying with laughter
    I have no Twitter access at the moment - weak wifi - times like this I miss Scott P.
  • HYUFD said:

    Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

    Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

    Night all.

    In England maybe, in the UK as a whole less clear
    Yes dear in Merrie Little England.

    'Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
    For we are the people of (Little) England, that never have spoken yet.'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,451
    PlatoSaid said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Mortimer said:

    Izzard is causing havoc on the panel, and not in a good way.

    I'm reading Twitter and crying with laughter
    Ms. Plato,

    We've been discussing Bligegate. Would you like to give your side? :smiley:
    Mr Meeks threw a total hissy fit at just before 7am about something I said. He said no one cared what I thought as it was all vapid bilge.

    And then we fell about laughing and a meme was born :smiley:
    :smiley:
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    My latest forecast for the ref, result:

    Remain 50.23% - Leave 49.77%.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Two weeks today, I'm going to be eating a curry and drinking a pint. What about you guys?

    I have a conference in That London during the day, so I'll be training back home and should be home by 9pm. I'll be sampling the odds every 15mins until 4/5am, making sure to back up the websites before SPIN, PoliticalOdds.bet and Oddschecker withdraw the odds. I have the next day off so pick up my winnings circa noon.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

    Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

    To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf
    Oddly enough under the last Labour government it was very easy to drill down to project and sub-project level, never mind country or even multilateral/bilateral level. In fact as government web sites go the DfID one under Gordon Brown was superbly informative.

    It changed very quickly once Cameron and Clegg got in and implemented the silly 0.7% policy. I found it had become a sort of giant press release and actual detail was very difficult to find and when compared to Labour's offering, actually impossible.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,820
    MP_SE said:

    John_N4 said:

    This kind of thing by Jeremy Corbyn is bound to win some votes for Leave:

    http://i.imgur.com/TKkldpc.jpg

    Mail Online comments make for interesting reading.
    A statement that is never true... :)
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    I can vouch for Ridgeview. Was a wine journalist in a former life and have visited the winery to see how their sparkling 'Merret' is made. The rosé sparkling in particular was a winner. The French don't like it up 'em.

    Glad you agree about RidgeView,

    Now, how does one go about getting a job as a wine journalist? Is it compulsory to go on about "subtle hints of forest fruits, but with a tang of peach and with a wonderful finish" and all that rubbish? Actually a better question, because I can write that sort of crap all day long, does it have to be accurate? Does anyone take any notice? Also do you get full expenses paid?

    A wine journalist could be the ideal paying hobby for my declining years, as long as I didn't have to get on an aeroplane.
    Unfortunately I can't help you with that as I was writing about wine from the production end, as an agricultural commodity, rather than the consumption end. So it was the unsexy stuff like harvest tonnage of wine grapes and import/export of bulk and bottled, not sniffing, swilling and spitting the end product! My hunch though is that most of it doesn't have to be accurate, no, it's subjective and - largely - a lot of bollocks.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I'm so pleased that Liz Kendall is on This Week - far better tele performer than Alan Johnson!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    Mortimer said:

    I'm so pleased that Liz Kendall is on This Week - far better tele performer than Alan Johnson!

    "No, the country comes fourth!" :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    edited June 2016

    HYUFD said:

    Whisper it; Leave might be winning this.

    Anyway up very early tomorrow to leaflet commuters. The battle goes on regardless.

    Night all.

    In England maybe, in the UK as a whole less clear
    Yes dear in Merrie Little England.

    'Smile at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget;
    For we are the people of (Little) England, that never have spoken yet.'
    They may well speak but I can see a result like MikeK has posted below once the Scots and Ulster have spoken too!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    NE Lincs Lab hold
    Lab 758
    UKIP 462
    Con 312
    Gre 40
    TUSC 26
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,266

    I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

    Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

    To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf
    Oddly enough under the last Labour government it was very easy to drill down to project and sub-project level, never mind country or even multilateral/bilateral level. In fact as government web sites go the DfID one under Gordon Brown was superbly informative.

    It changed very quickly once Cameron and Clegg got in and implemented the silly 0.7% policy. I found it had become a sort of giant press release and actual detail was very difficult to find and when compared to Labour's offering, actually impossible.
    There must be a way of finding the info.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    edited June 2016
    MP_SE said:

    John_N4 said:

    This kind of thing by Jeremy Corbyn is bound to win some votes for Leave:

    http://i.imgur.com/TKkldpc.jpg

    Mail Online comments make for interesting reading.
    Well from what I also glanced at today they hate Major and they hate Blair and they hate Cameron, nothing Mail readers like more than a good hating....
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    NE Lincs Lab hold
    Lab 758
    UKIP 462
    Con 312
    Gre 40
    TUSC 26

    Lib Dem surge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Danny565 said:

    Eddie Izzard.... make it stop....

    He is looking like Gillian Duffy's flighty, younger sister on a bad day.
    LOL
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I've been doing a bit of research and found out (everyone else probably already knew this) that a percentage of Britain's DISTENDED overseas aid budget is called MULTILATERAL overseas development aid (as opposed to bilateral overseas development aid), and instead of being given to the needy, just gets bunged to big international organisations instead.

    Guess what organisation takes the biggest cut of this multilateral overseas development aid? Correct - the European Commission. To be precise, in 2013, £813million to the European Commission, and £407million to the European Commission - European Development Fund. So that's well over a billion (I can't find 2015 figures, but international aid has gone up significantly since then) of British tax payers money going to the EU completely off the books. I suspect it's probably over £2 billion now, and potentially significant in this 'lying over the figures' debate.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf

    To add to this, the only statistics I can find for 2015 (published last December) do not break down multilateral overseas development by organisation, one can only assume because it doesn't look great.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/512978/Provisional-UK-Official-Dev-Ass-Proportion-Gross-Nat-Income2015a.pdf
    Oddly enough under the last Labour government it was very easy to drill down to project and sub-project level, never mind country or even multilateral/bilateral level. In fact as government web sites go the DfID one under Gordon Brown was superbly informative.

    It changed very quickly once Cameron and Clegg got in and implemented the silly 0.7% policy. I found it had become a sort of giant press release and actual detail was very difficult to find and when compared to Labour's offering, actually impossible.
    There must be a way of finding the info.
    FoI Perhaps? Maybe the information is there to the level of detail that it was under Labour but I gave up trying to find it.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I can vouch for Ridgeview. Was a wine journalist in a former life and have visited the winery to see how their sparkling 'Merret' is made. The rosé sparkling in particular was a winner. The French don't like it up 'em.

    Glad you agree about RidgeView,

    Now, how does one go about getting a job as a wine journalist? Is it compulsory to go on about "subtle hints of forest fruits, but with a tang of peach and with a wonderful finish" and all that rubbish? Actually a better question, because I can write that sort of crap all day long, does it have to be accurate? Does anyone take any notice? Also do you get full expenses paid?

    A wine journalist could be the ideal paying hobby for my declining years, as long as I didn't have to get on an aeroplane.
    Unfortunately I can't help you with that as I was writing about wine from the production end, as an agricultural commodity, rather than the consumption end. So it was the unsexy stuff like harvest tonnage of wine grapes and import/export of bulk and bottled, not sniffing, swilling and spitting the end product! My hunch though is that most of it doesn't have to be accurate, no, it's subjective and - largely - a lot of bollocks.
    Oh, well it was a nice thought for a while. Thanks anyway.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lambeth Gipsy Hill Green surge but Lab hold

    Lab 1220
    Green 1184
    Con 210
    LDem 84
    UKIP 73
    Ind 24
    TUSC 19
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    OH DEAR

    @angelaeagle storms off after debate saying "that was a Fucking Disaster"

    #ITVEURef #VoteLeave @StrongerIn https://t.co/SxYDG6fWjX
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    FPT
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: Apparently the Labour MP joining the Out campaign is none other than....John Cryer, chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Very credible.

    I wonder whether the BBC will choose to describe him as a "senior" Labour MP? And give as much prominence to his declaring for Leave as they gave to the declaration of a Conservative MP for Remain today? Or even report his joining the Leave campaign at all.
    I think a defection from one side to another is more of a story than someone simply declaring they are for leave/remain.
    No, there are plenty of Conservative MPs on the Remain/Government side. The fact that one has decided to change her mind over a few weeks shouldn't really be that big an issue, and it's certainly not one worthy of leading the morning BBC news bulletins.

    By contrast, with very few Labour MPs coming out for Leave, the fact that the Chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party has switched from undeclared to Leave should be a much more substantive story. But it won't lead the BBC news bulletins, and I suspect won't even make them at all.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Essex CC UKIP gain from Lab

    UKIP 2034
    Lab 1800
    Con 878
    Green 264
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    Actualy that isn't so much the problem. I've had a look at the base figures from the recent polling and the most important difference between the methods is the phone polls are consistently showing the older working-age segment as being much closer to the young (more remain, less leave) than to pensioners when compared to online polls. This is hugely important because they make up by far the largest chunk of actual voters.

    I think we all know why phone polls might have difficulty getting representative samples of working age people...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    edited June 2016
    "In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Essex CC UKIP gain from Lab

    UKIP 2034
    Lab 1800
    Con 878
    Green 264

    Where Essex man leads......
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Online was more accurate when you look at Con/UKIP combined.

    Phones are terrible at picking up all those working class 'Labour' people that really vote UKIP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
    UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
    UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it
    Look at the graph. The last few online polls were within 1%, the last few phone polls were more than 1% out.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,820

    "In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."

    Leaving aside you're misquoting a rampant antisemite, there is one thing that has always bugged me about that speech. How hard are "warrior poets"? Are they better fighters than warriors who only write prose? Do we take into account things like scansion, metre, genre? How are they recruited? "Guys, we need somebody who can swing an axe and write sonnets"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
    UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it
    Look at the graph. The last few online polls were within 1%, the last few phone polls were more than 1% out.
    The last online polls had UKIP on 13.5%, the last phones 11.5% so little real difference, the former a bit over, the latter a bit under
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    viewcode said:

    "In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."

    Leaving aside you're misquoting a rampant antisemite, there is one thing that has always bugged me about that speech. How hard are "warrior poets"? Are they better fighters than warriors who only write prose? Do we take into account things like scansion, metre, genre? How are they recruited? "Guys, we need somebody who can swing an axe and write sonnets"?
    Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a Single European Superstate!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    @viewcode

    Just realised I missed Re-Animator on Horror Channel! Ooops!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dem landslide hold in Surrey Docks

    LDem 1523
    Lab 619
    Con 380
    Green 218
    UKIP 187
    Ind 10
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,820

    @viewcode

    Just realised I missed Re-Animator on Horror Channel! Ooops!

    Horrorchannel+1 is on channel320 on the Sky selector.

    I can't really look at Jeffrey Combs without thinking of DS9
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
    UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it
    Look at the graph. The last few online polls were within 1%, the last few phone polls were more than 1% out.
    The last online polls had UKIP on 13.5%, the last phones 11.5% so little real difference, the former a bit over, the latter a bit under
    Online still closer :)

    By contrast phones were closer to the Tory score:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596864382434418689
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    Just realised I missed Re-Animator on Horror Channel! Ooops!

    Horrorchannel+1 is on channel320 on the Sky selector.

    I can't really look at Jeffrey Combs without thinking of DS9
    Darn, only got Freeview here!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Lib Dem landslide hold in Surrey Docks

    LDem 1523
    Lab 619
    Con 380
    Green 218
    UKIP 187
    Ind 10

    There has to be half a chance of the Lib Dems regaining that constituency. Bermondsey and Southwark, isn't it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
    UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it
    Look at the graph. The last few online polls were within 1%, the last few phone polls were more than 1% out.
    The last online polls had UKIP on 13.5%, the last phones 11.5% so little real difference, the former a bit over, the latter a bit under
    Online still closer :)

    By contrast phones were closer to the Tory score:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596864382434418689
    Indeed, the phones got it almost bang on at the start of April before falling back a bit, goodnight
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    Twitter fight already
    Trump: Obama just endorsed Crooked Hillary. He wants four more years of Obama—but nobody else does!
    Hillary: Delete your account.
    Trump: How long did it take your staff of 823 people to think that up–and where are your 33,000 emails that you deleted?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am really struggling to believe this. I think it will be close like 52/48 Remain on a 60% turnout.

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/741029555478142977

    I'll believe it when phone polls start showing it as 50:50.
    Ipsos showing 45:55 will be good enough for me.
    If IPSOS shows 45:55, we've likely lost . We need something closer to 50:50 given a lot of people will bottle it in the privacy of the polling booth.
    The 'phones don't pick up right wing opinion.

    People get shy. They lie about who they voted for (usually saying Labour, often Lib Dem) and then they lie about how they will vote.

    It's only a few percent swing, but enough.
    The phones were more accurate than online last May
    A common misconception.

    They were more accurate with Tory/Labour.

    They were less accurate with Right/Left.
    They got UKIP more accurate than the online polls too as far as I can recall
    Nope, re. UKIP the Online polls were closer to GE2015:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596862677290459136
    UKIP got 12.9%, so online polling still overestimated their total, phone polling slightly underestimated it
    Look at the graph. The last few online polls were within 1%, the last few phone polls were more than 1% out.
    The last online polls had UKIP on 13.5%, the last phones 11.5% so little real difference, the former a bit over, the latter a bit under
    Online still closer :)

    By contrast phones were closer to the Tory score:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596864382434418689
    Indeed, the phones got it almost bang on at the start of April before falling back a bit, goodnight
    Don't forget Labour!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/596863875275948032
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 23m23 minutes ago
    Laindon Park and Fryerns (Essex) result:
    UKIP: 42.6% (+6.8)
    LAB: 33.5% (-3.2)
    CON: 18.4% (+2.6)
    GRN: 5.5% (+3.3)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 27m27 minutes ago
    UKIP GAIN Basildon Laindon Park & Fryerns (Essex) from Labour.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Mortimer said:

    Izzard is causing havoc on the panel, and not in a good way.

    I'm reading Twitter and crying with laughter
    Ms. Plato,

    We've been discussing Bligegate. Would you like to give your side? :smiley:
    Mr Meeks threw a total hissy fit at just before 7am about something I said. He said no one cared what I thought as it was all vapid bilge.

    And then we fell about laughing and a meme was born :smiley:
    But was it Vapid Bilge?

    The truth sometimes hurts...
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited June 2016
    The Greens nearly took a seat off Labour on a 27% swing in London.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 30m30 minutes ago
    Gipsy Hill (Lambeth) result:
    LAB: 43.4% (-23.6)
    GRN: 42.1% (+31.2)
    CON: 7.5% (-5.6)
    LDEM: 3.0% (-1.9)
    UKIP: 2.6% (-1.6)
    IND: 0.9%
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/741053461157023746

    Interesting context to the Gyspy Hill result.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    The Greens nearly took a seat off Labour on a 27% swing in London.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 30m30 minutes ago
    Gipsy Hill (Lambeth) result:
    LAB: 43.4% (-23.6)
    GRN: 42.1% (+31.2)
    CON: 7.5% (-5.6)
    LDEM: 3.0% (-1.9)
    UKIP: 2.6% (-1.6)
    IND: 0.9%

    Corbynism sweeping the nation, dirty sleazy kippers on the slide ;-)

    Goodnight all. For those who didn't see it the second half of This Week was far more nuanced than most of the vapid bilge that has been the bulk of the Brexit debate in recent weeks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937

    viewcode said:

    "In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."

    Leaving aside you're misquoting a rampant antisemite, there is one thing that has always bugged me about that speech. How hard are "warrior poets"? Are they better fighters than warriors who only write prose? Do we take into account things like scansion, metre, genre? How are they recruited? "Guys, we need somebody who can swing an axe and write sonnets"?
    Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a Single European Superstate!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
    Strong Britain believed in standing up for the Poles. Leave Britain believes in sending them home.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    HYUFD said:

    Twitter fight already
    Trump: Obama just endorsed Crooked Hillary. He wants four more years of Obama—but nobody else does!
    Hillary: Delete your account.
    Trump: How long did it take your staff of 823 people to think that up–and where are your 33,000 emails that you deleted?

    Shots fired, repeat shots fired...one thing for certain this POTUS campaign is certainly not going to be dull!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416

    chestnut said:

    The Greens nearly took a seat off Labour on a 27% swing in London.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 30m30 minutes ago
    Gipsy Hill (Lambeth) result:
    LAB: 43.4% (-23.6)
    GRN: 42.1% (+31.2)
    CON: 7.5% (-5.6)
    LDEM: 3.0% (-1.9)
    UKIP: 2.6% (-1.6)
    IND: 0.9%

    Corbynism sweeping the nation, dirty sleazy kippers on the slide ;-)

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 27m27 minutes ago
    UKIP GAIN Basildon Laindon Park & Fryerns (Essex) from Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    PlatoSaid said:

    OH DEAR

    @angelaeagle storms off after debate saying "that was a Fucking Disaster"

    #ITVEURef #VoteLeave @StrongerIn https://t.co/SxYDG6fWjX

    Most insightful comment she made all night!
  • ViceroyViceroy Posts: 128
    Got a load of Labour Leave leaflets delivered yesterday (I live in the strongest Labour seat in the country) and I have put my Vote Leave banner up outside house with a little Union Jack flag flying over it. Let's do this!

    Anecdotal but of the five swing voters I know, all five are now moving towards Leave.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,416

    viewcode said:

    "In the year of Our Lord 2016, British patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And they won their Freedom."

    Leaving aside you're misquoting a rampant antisemite, there is one thing that has always bugged me about that speech. How hard are "warrior poets"? Are they better fighters than warriors who only write prose? Do we take into account things like scansion, metre, genre? How are they recruited? "Guys, we need somebody who can swing an axe and write sonnets"?
    Anti-Semite Adolf believed in a Single European Superstate!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!
    Strong Britain believed in standing up for the Poles. Leave Britain believes in sending them home.
    Who is this "LEAVE BRITAIN"?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    hunchman said:

    Well done Julie Etchingham - wonderful moderator of the debate tonight, firm when needed, and allowed the debate to flow as much as possible.

    She did exactly the same during the Farage/Cameron vs audience debate, but because Farage and Vote Leave came off worse in that debate some of their supporters were complaining about her performance as moderator....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    so is voter registration closed now?
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Viceroy said:

    Got a load of Labour Leave leaflets delivered yesterday (I live in the strongest Labour seat in the country) and I have put my Vote Leave banner up outside house with a little Union Jack flag flying over it. Let's do this!

    Anecdotal but of the five swing voters I know, all five are now moving towards Leave.

    I agree. Brilliant to see both John Mann and Dennis Skinner come out for Leave in tomorrow's papers.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    HYUFD said:

    MP_SE said:

    John_N4 said:

    This kind of thing by Jeremy Corbyn is bound to win some votes for Leave:

    http://i.imgur.com/TKkldpc.jpg

    Mail Online comments make for interesting reading.
    Well from what I also glanced at today they hate Major and they hate Blair and they hate Cameron, nothing Mail readers like more than a good hating....
    Yes there is. They love Britain.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Looking at the ITV debate Remain are trying to win this from the left. They are going for the 50% +1 vote strategy. Cameron will do ANYTHING to win an election, even trash the Conservative party. The line is clear with the left wing dog whistle "Little England" and personal attacks on Boris I'm sure Gove is next for the attack. They are trying to consolidate their lead in Scotland, N.I and the big English cities. Will it be enough to galvanise the left and especially the young? It could be, look at Barking and Austria. But I don't think the voters see Boris as trump-lite. Also hard for Cameron et al to appeal to voters he has been attacking for 6 years.


    Leave started to talk about the risks of remaining- they need to push this much harder.
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    edited June 2016
    Warning; Personal Opinion:

    The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

    If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

    We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

    Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The most watched television channels tonight:

    ITV - Debate of 3 Remain vesus 3 Leave
    - Remain come across as attacking, mean, project fear and nothing positive to say
    - Leave have to defend personal attacks on Johnson but come across with a positive message of hope
    - LEAVE WIN

    BBC ONE - Question Time (3 Leave, 2 Remain)
    - Remain had some sensible points but Benn totally undermined by rude, shouty, incoherent Eddie Izzard
    - Grayling calm and logical, Farage acting statesmanlike, emotional Telegraph journo
    - LEAVE WIN






  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Warning; Personal Opinion:

    The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

    If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

    We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

    Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

    Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    https://yougov.co.uk/turnout-o-meter/?turnout=81&overallremaing=2&agefactor=1&classfactor=1

    This fun to play around with. It shows on a 2% remain vote the turnout needs to be 91% for remain to win. LOL.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2016
    nunu said:

    Looking at the ITV debate Remain are trying to win this from the left. They are going for the 50% +1 vote strategy. Cameron will do ANYTHING to win an election, even trash the Conservative party. The line is clear with the left wing dog whistle "Little England" and personal attacks on Boris I'm sure Gove is next for the attack. They are trying to consolidate their lead in Scotland, N.I and the big English cities. Will it be enough to galvanise the left and especially the young? It could be, look at Barking and Austria. But I don't think the voters see Boris as trump-lite. Also hard for Cameron et al to appeal to voters he has been attacking for 6 years.


    Leave started to talk about the risks of remaining- they need to push this much harder.

    By adopting the all out attack on Leave and the personal attacks on Boris, the Remain camp seem to be trying to shore up their existing supporters rather than gain new ones.

    This strategy would have worked when they were ahead at the start of the campaign but now they are behind it's not going to work.

    Remain will need some convincing positive reasons for being in the EU if they are to win back support.

  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Salmond and Heseltine win thumping victory in Oxford Union debate for Remain last night over Michael Howard and Hannan. Now that debate would have been worth watching. Is it on line anywhere?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    nunu said:

    Warning; Personal Opinion:

    The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

    If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

    We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

    Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

    Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.
    I think the bulwark against Communism is properly called the US of A, not the EU.

    My Leave journey is bright and sunny. You seem to be the one with very dark journeys.
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    nunu said:

    Warning; Personal Opinion:

    The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

    If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

    We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

    Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

    Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.
    It's interesting when opinions you dismiss are regarded as "trolling". This is how the EU Parliament (for better or worse) deals with Nigel Farage.

    Explain this one please?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Powerful background on the Gilfoyle case (from his sister)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SR0bKgKw1A0

    It could happen to any of us...
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    MTimT said:

    nunu said:

    Warning; Personal Opinion:

    The problem with the Remain campaign in this referendum has not been that they're "scare-mongering". Quite the opposite. They need to take it to the next level. The leavers are a disgrace and are as good as traitors to this country (and to their ancestors) in the disregard they show to the consequences of their actions. Us Remainers are the TRUE patriots and what your grand-parents TRULY fought for.

    If we choose to leave the EU in two weeks time, prepare for a very dark journey ahead. Very few in the 30s predicted there be a world war ahead except for that far right-wing nutcase maverick called Churchill who everyone ignored, laughed at and derided... Hmm...

    We have a EU which is in danger of collapse. A system that has stopped war for almost 70 years. That has acted as a bulk-ward against external Communism and internal Nationalism and potential fascism. The last ten years have been shit - this is undeniable. Greece and other counties have driven things to breaking point - something the EU is only just recovering from. And we think that their 3rd largest economy and 2nd largest military pulling won't cause massive MASSIVE problems? When France, the largest military is on the brink of electing a fascist next year (and surely will happen if we quit).. really?

    Cameron may be many things, but on this is is prescient. We are the balance between a decade of war and a decade of peace. Everything is very finely balanced - So choose wisely! ;D

    Troll much. "balance between a decade of war...and peace" lol give over.
    I think the bulwark against Communism is properly called the US of A, not the EU.

    My Leave journey is bright and sunny. You seem to be the one with very dark journeys.
    There's been many examples in history of revolutions with "very bright and sunny futures".. most of them ended quite darkly. Given the situation, by what circumstance do you pretend this possible future will be any better?
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    nunu said:

    Turnout is going to kill Remain according to yougov on a 53% turnout Leave win even with a 4% remain lead- turnout needs to be 71% for Remain to win.

    Turnout will be about 80% let's be frank. It'll be close to the Scottish election turnout. This is a big BIG deal.
This discussion has been closed.