Is there anything wrong with the following argument?
1) The Sun looks as though it will continue to back Leave, ever more explicitly and strongly 2) The Sun always backs the winner 3) Therefore Leave at 3\1 is a definite buy
?
The Times will back Remain and it tends to back the winner too
The Times will back REMAIN??
It's my paper. My guess is that it is split down the middle, but slightly more of the senior staff are LEAVERS, and the boss is LEAVE
Right now it's maybe 60/40 LEAVE, but who knows how it will decide.
There is absolutely no certainty it will go for REMAIN
Of course it will back Remain in the end, 62% of Times readers back Remain, Murdoch is many things but he is not a fool and will not alienate his readership. The Sun will back Leave but 71% of Sun readers back Leave so no problems there. Having the Times back Remain also allows Murdoch to hedge his bets as he did at the general election with the English Sun backing the Tories and the Scottish Sun backing the SNP https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/
Is there anything wrong with the following argument?
1) The Sun looks as though it will continue to back Leave, ever more explicitly and strongly 2) The Sun always backs the winner 3) Therefore Leave at 3\1 is a definite buy
?
The Times will back Remain and it tends to back the winner too
The Times will back REMAIN??
It's my paper. My guess is that it is split down the middle, but slightly more of the senior staff are LEAVERS, and the boss is LEAVE
Right now it's maybe 60/40 LEAVE, but who knows how it will decide.
There is absolutely no certainty it will go for REMAIN
My feeling from reading The Times is that it will go for Leave. It seems more supportive of Leave arguments - to me, at any rate.
I think the Times and Evening Standard will be reluctant Remainers. Very small chance the Times goes neutral.
Is there anything wrong with the following argument?
1) The Sun looks as though it will continue to back Leave, ever more explicitly and strongly 2) The Sun always backs the winner 3) Therefore Leave at 3\1 is a definite buy
?
The Times will back Remain and it tends to back the winner too
The Times will back REMAIN??
It's my paper. My guess is that it is split down the middle, but slightly more of the senior staff are LEAVERS, and the boss is LEAVE
Right now it's maybe 60/40 LEAVE, but who knows how it will decide.
There is absolutely no certainty it will go for REMAIN
Just think if they back Leave then Matthew Parris might leave for the Guardian!
Oh deep joy. He would fit in well with people who have no idea what working class people think or do.
Two weeks today, I'm going to be eating a curry and drinking a pint.
What about you guys?
Hanging around near Sittingbourne, of all places, waiting to pick my daughter up from her "Prom". ("Prom"! What is wrong with a Leavers' Dance, like we had in my day?). Too far to go there and back twice in an evening, so I'll either go and watch a film somewhere, or find a pub with wifi and wait anxiously for the polls to close whilst everyone tries to guess the outcome.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Good point well made. Farron has been completely out of sight.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Good point well made. Farron has been completely out of sight.
Still don't see much sign of the BBC reporting Labour MP declarations for Leave..
Hell freezes over.
I'd have thought making a big deal out of a Labour declaration for Leave would highlight how poorly Leave are doing among Labour parliamentarians at least, and given an impression there is little tendency for Leave among Labour, which we hope and think is not the case even if it is not a majority.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Good point well made. Farron has been completely out of sight.
Who?
On the basis of a post here today, I tiptoed over to libdemvoice to see what the little scamps had been up to. I found this gem:
"To sum up, the message to the Chinese community is that if you want peace, prosperity and progress, vote REMAIN. It would be insane to consider the alternative of war and destruction, economic stagnation and a return to the Middle Ages."
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
They have changed their party name to TheFooCarWe. Their new desks are hidden in 8 foot grass and they spend their time shouting to each other. We're TheFooCarWe.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Good point well made. Farron has been completely out of sight.
Think I caught a glimpse of him next to Harman, Cameron and Bennett the other day. Nice of the middle two to include him.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Who the f*** are the LibDems?
They're still around. Just about - they gained a council seat from the Tories at a by election in my neck of the woods recently! Next, the world.
Not mentioned so far I think, but Eagles sole purpose in the debate was to focus on Labour supporters to vote Remain, hence her partisan attacks on the Tories, but saying that "giving them a bloody nose" by voting to Leave would be a huge error. Ditto to a lesser extent Sturgeon more widely to those on the left.
It obviously grates with Tories (like me!) but it may have been an agreed tactic beforehand.
Agree that Leadsom and Stuart did well and Boris above par.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Who the f*** are the LibDems?
They're still around. Just about - they gained a council seat from the Tories at a by election in my neck of the woods recently! Next, the world.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
St Helena. GDP is about £10m. And they managed to spend £285m on an airport.
That's quite an achievement. That would be like London spending £20trillion on an airport.
Nothing wrong with building the airport, slightly disappointed that they didn't think the middle of the South Atlantic was windy and check first.
Oh dear.
£285m.
That's a staggering amount of money for a country with 4,000 people.
That's £500,000 per person.
I'd always assumed it had something to do with the delay in our aircraft carriers and the 'nearness' Falkland Islands. Also it came out of the international aid budget so probably a decent enough cost.
Bit surprising that nobody from UKIP was in the leave threesome. Why not?
Farage had his ITV slot on Tuesday.
Surely UKIP is more than Farage?
Yes, but I guess it depends on how you cut the cake of party significance - vote share/MPs? You could argue that Leave had the advantage of having two blues on the same team who you'd expect to work together, but they certainly worked with Gisela.
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Who the f*** are the LibDems?
They're still around. Just about - they gained a council seat from the Tories at a by election in my neck of the woods recently! Next, the world.
Channelling your inner Mark Senior?
Hey, someone has to benefit in rural areas and small towns in the SW from all this Tory infighting and incompetence, and it isn't going to be Labour round here, that's for sure. Heck, even UKIP only won one seat in Wiltshire out of 98 in 2013 (very first declaration though, IIRC, which made people nervous).
Not mentioned so far I think, but Eagles sole purpose in the debate was to focus on Labour supporters to vote Remain, hence her partisan attacks on the Tories, but saying that "giving them a bloody nose" by voting to Leave would be a huge error. Ditto to a lesser extent Sturgeon more widely to those on the left.
It obviously grates with Tories (like me!) but it may have been an agreed tactic beforehand.
Agree that Leadsom and Stuart did well and Boris above par.
St Helena. GDP is about £10m. And they managed to spend £285m on an airport.
That's quite an achievement. That would be like London spending £20trillion on an airport.
Nothing wrong with building the airport, slightly disappointed that they didn't think the middle of the South Atlantic was windy and check first.
Oh dear.
It's the fact that it's built on a cliff that's causing the issues with wind shear.
I didn't realise it was £285 million when I first heard of the project it was a lot lot less.
I was about to make a joke about how you should just double or triple initial estimates of cost, to the point of wondering why they even pretend it will cost less, but apparently that rail tunnel under the alps was on time and on budget, at least according to the BBC write up - I nearly fell out of my chair, as I had no idea it was possible for such things to be on budget.
Not mentioned so far I think, but Eagles sole purpose in the debate was to focus on Labour supporters to vote Remain, hence her partisan attacks on the Tories, but saying that "giving them a bloody nose" by voting to Leave would be a huge error. Ditto to a lesser extent Sturgeon more widely to those on the left.
It obviously grates with Tories (like me!) but it may have been an agreed tactic beforehand.
Agree that Leadsom and Stuart did well and Boris above par.
This evening I had to stand in silence and listen to a Labour IN campaigner explain that prior to joining the EU, we were the sick man of Europe, but after we joined, we no longer were thanks to the EU.
I really wanted to say no, it was thanks to f*cking Thatcher, but this was a family of voters who hates the f*cking Tories.
Don't see how anyone who reads the Times can think that they are going to be anything but for Remain.
I read it every weekday (we get it in work).I was discussing the Times last night on this very board. The commentariat before the middle page are mostly for LEAVE, with some obvious exceptions (Fink, Parris, etc). The business writers after the middle page are mostly for REMAIN, with some exceptions. I think it'll go LEAVE because Murdoch, but it is genuinely conflicted.
The reactions of the business press embedded in sceptic papers is interesting. In the Telegraph Jeremy Warner has worked out that Vote Leave is pursuing an anti-economic strategy and is beginning to worry. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard also I think realises it, but (true to his persona) will simply blame Europe instead of taking responsibility. Everybody else is Pollyanna, tbh.
Andy Burnham crying on Newsnight about Leave winning.
Is his mascara running?
He was out canvassing in Madchester. He got a mixed response.
Tbf, even TSE could do a better job of canvassing for Remain than Andy Burnham.
Good grief. Manchester must be, after London, Scotland, Oxford, Cambridge and Bristol, just about the remainiest place in the UK. If he's having a mixed reception here Remain really are struggling.
Interesting headline on the BBC site about the debate. 'Remain target Johnson in TV debate', which says nothing about the claims of either side. Then it has a Johnson quote that we could prosper as never before, with the caveat he was accused of 'vying to be the next PM'.
Which actually seems like a pretty leave friendly write up. No details of him being accused of anything disreputable, or untruthful in order to be PM (just that he is vying to be, which is a plus for some) and includes his main claim unchallenged.
St Helena. GDP is about £10m. And they managed to spend £285m on an airport.
That's quite an achievement. That would be like London spending £20trillion on an airport.
Nothing wrong with building the airport, slightly disappointed that they didn't think the middle of the South Atlantic was windy and check first.
Oh dear.
It's the fact that it's built on a cliff that's causing the issues with wind shear.
I didn't realise it was £285 million when I first heard of the project it was a lot lot less.
I was about to make a joke about how you should just double or triple initial estimates of cost, to the point of wondering why they even pretend it will cost less, but apparently that rail tunnel under the alps was on time and on budget, at least according to the BBC write up - I nearly fell out of my chair, as I had no idea it was possible for such things to be on budget.
Not mentioned so far I think, but Eagles sole purpose in the debate was to focus on Labour supporters to vote Remain, hence her partisan attacks on the Tories, but saying that "giving them a bloody nose" by voting to Leave would be a huge error. Ditto to a lesser extent Sturgeon more widely to those on the left.
It obviously grates with Tories (like me!) but it may have been an agreed tactic beforehand.
Agree that Leadsom and Stuart did well and Boris above par.
I also think the attacks on Boris are because Downing Street have read the same runes I have, loads more people I know are now willing to back Boris in a final two than were just a couple of weeks ago. He has got his act together and stopped playing the fool as much. He did his homework tonight and it showed. While I would still only look at Boris if it was vs Osborne, I may no longer be representative on this issue, but I think Boris would beat May and Hammond if Leave wins where he wouldn't have done a couple of weeks ago when he was banging on about Hitler.
Not mentioned so far I think, but Eagles sole purpose in the debate was to focus on Labour supporters to vote Remain, hence her partisan attacks on the Tories, but saying that "giving them a bloody nose" by voting to Leave would be a huge error. Ditto to a lesser extent Sturgeon more widely to those on the left. It obviously grates with Tories (like me!) but it may have been an agreed tactic beforehand.
But do you agree John that most of the blue on blue attacks emanate from REMAIN? Rudd continually made personal attacks on Boris.
Leave seem to have dropped the economics argument to focus on immigration, but I have no idea why they don't talk more about the common external tariff.
No customs are levied on goods travelling within the EU customs union but, unlike a free trade area, a common external tariff is imposed on all goods entering.
When we joined the EEC most of our trade was with its members, so arguably it made sense for us to be a member, but that's no longer the case. Technological improvements and the relative decline of the EU compared with the rest of the world (both factors which are unlikely to be reversed) mean we now trade more with countries outside the EU than we do with countries inside. Since most of our trade is now with countries outside the EU it makes sense for us to leave.
This is a strong and easy to explain economics based argument for us to leave. Are there problems with it? Can it be improved? Wikipedia has a page about the EU Customs Union here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Customs_Union
Andy Burnham crying on Newsnight about Leave winning.
Is his mascara running?
He was out canvassing in Madchester. He got a mixed response.
Tbf, even TSE could do a better job of canvassing for Remain than Andy Burnham.
Good grief. Manchester must be, after London, Scotland, Oxford, Cambridge and Bristol, just about the remainiest place in the UK. If he's having a mixed reception here Remain really are struggling.
To be honest, it might just be because he's Andy Burnham.
Comments
England does some fantastic sparkling wines.
(Says the man drinking Italian wine.)
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/741019429035708421
I think they overestimate the importance of the UK to the EU!
I think the results of a Leave vote will be more politicking than bombs and bullets.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/741019429035708421
Anyway, forget Ukip - where the f*** are the Lib Dems?
Oh dear.
"To sum up, the message to the Chinese community is that if you want peace, prosperity and progress, vote REMAIN. It would be insane to consider the alternative of war and destruction, economic stagnation and a return to the Middle Ages."
That's a staggering amount of money for a country with 4,000 people.
That's £500,000 per person.
Does that say anything about their constituency feedback?
Tbf, even TSE could do a better job of canvassing for Remain than Andy Burnham.
Still ridiculous on a per capita value basis if it were purely for commercial purposes, but we all know that it not the real value.
It obviously grates with Tories (like me!) but it may have been an agreed tactic beforehand.
Agree that Leadsom and Stuart did well and Boris above par.
I didn't realise it was £285 million when I first heard of the project it was a lot lot less.
Leave voter: "Ok."
I support the idea of an airport but you need to think about where it is. St Helena is a small island.
I really wanted to say no, it was thanks to f*cking Thatcher, but this was a family of voters who hates the f*cking Tories.
The reactions of the business press embedded in sceptic papers is interesting. In the Telegraph Jeremy Warner has worked out that Vote Leave is pursuing an anti-economic strategy and is beginning to worry. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard also I think realises it, but (true to his persona) will simply blame Europe instead of taking responsibility. Everybody else is Pollyanna, tbh.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/theatre/what-to-see/harry-potter-and-the-cursed-child-opening-night-of-part-2---will/
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/741024437236011008
And I've actually manned a stall in Manchester City Centre.
And life on PB was never the same again...
Which actually seems like a pretty leave friendly write up. No details of him being accused of anything disreputable, or untruthful in order to be PM (just that he is vying to be, which is a plus for some) and includes his main claim unchallenged.
Turns out it is Eddie Izzard in a fuchsia beret.
No customs are levied on goods travelling within the EU customs union but, unlike a free trade area, a common external tariff is imposed on all goods entering.
When we joined the EEC most of our trade was with its members, so arguably it made sense for us to be a member, but that's no longer the case. Technological improvements and the relative decline of the EU compared with the rest of the world (both factors which are unlikely to be reversed) mean we now trade more with countries outside the EU than we do with countries inside. Since most of our trade is now with countries outside the EU it makes sense for us to leave.
This is a strong and easy to explain economics based argument for us to leave. Are there problems with it? Can it be improved? Wikipedia has a page about the EU Customs Union here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Customs_Union
Mann, Skinner and ?