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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -

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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,988
    Not watching proceedings as high up in the Aragonese Pyrenees. But ...

    This thread clearly demonstrates why most TV political debates don't change many minds. It's like reading comments on a Spurs message board during a game.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    It's a shame. Gisela is way too right wing for her current party. She makes Liz Kendall look like Che Guevara.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    Amber Crudd - the climate change warrior!

    I bet she even really believes most of the nonsense herself. But it's one of those good lies. It's probably not a good thing to pump into the atmosphere so much carbon, it is probably mildly aggravating existing trends. Because of this all kind of nuance and subtleties are lost. We are all doomed etc if we dont do XYZ.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,891
    John_M said:

    hunchman said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at the comments on Sarah Wollaston's blog, I would guess that South Hams Conservatives are not a happy ship at the moment.

    Picking up on some real local anger....
    Mutiny in Dartmouth and the South Hams on the cards!
    I read the comments. They're pretty evenly split between angry and supportive. She's going to be fine. I don't understand why she did what she did, but it's hardly the end of the world.
    Nobody can understand what she did. Or what her attitude is to the EU now.
  • Julie is moderating this so well

    Second that
    Thirded - like a good ref - you dont know shes there as the play is flowing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278
    John_M said:

    It's a shame. Gisela is way too right wing for her current party. She makes Liz Kendall look like Che Guevara.

    Red Tory? :D
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,407
    Christ. Nicola lecturing us on looking in on ourselves.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923

    Not watching proceedings as high up in the Aragonese Pyrenees. But ...

    This thread clearly demonstrates why most TV political debates don't change many minds. It's like reading comments on a Spurs message board during a game.

    And that just like the Spurs message board, most normal people don't view it ;-)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    Sean_F said:

    Betfair utterly unmoved by this so far

    Betfair will only be moved if Leave are leading 55/45 at 3 a.m. on 24th June.
    Lol
  • Mortimer said:

    I want to be able to vote for Gisella Stuart.

    Me too!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    John_M said:

    It's a shame. Gisela is way too right wing for her current party. She makes Liz Kendall look like Che Guevara.

    Red Tory? :D
    Blair Babe :).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046

    SeanT said:

    Betfair utterly unmoved by this so far

    Whenever you say something like that, I know REMAIN are having a bad moment.

    You're still gonna triumph on the 23rd, but let us enjoy these battlefield victories. So far this is an easy win for LEAVE.
    Exactly. That's TSE's way of saying "we're losing".
    Whereas your comment of 'piss off' is a sign of Leave doing well?
    Rest my case.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,407
    Folded arms Amber again.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Amber looking very grumpy and arms crossed again
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    That little wobble of the head by Sturgeon has me in fits of laughter.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765

    Betfair utterly unmoved by this so far

    It's actually moved one notch to Remain.

    8.00pm: Remain 1.34
    9.30pm: Remain 1.33
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @SeanT

    'Angela Eagle is crying again.'


    Her attempt to change project fear to project smear has clearly failed big time.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,891
    Sturgeon has turned up for the wrong Referendum....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Nicola knows her true enemies are to the left of her on that stage.

    I'm not watching, who would that be? The conventional wisdom is that the SNP want a leave vote so there is an excuse for another referendum. But does Nicola really want to hold another referendum in the current circumstances? With North Sea Oil revenues shattered? I'd be amazed.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Amber Crudd - the climate change warrior!

    I bet she even really believes most of the nonsense herself. But it's one of those good lies. It's probably not a good thing to pump into the atmosphere so much carbon, it is probably mildly aggravating existing trends. Because of this all kind of nuance and subtleties are lost. We are all doomed etc if we dont do XYZ.
    All plant life is carbon based - we need more of it if anything. Look at CO2 throughout history, for much of the time in earth's history over the past 4,600 million years its been way above 400ppm. If you take the climate change CO2 argument to extremis, if CO2 levels fell below 120ppm then life would begin to die off as being carbon starved (there are stabilisers in the system which mean that the 120ppm level is in effect a CO2 floor).
  • SeanT said:

    Betfair utterly unmoved by this so far

    Whenever you say something like that, I know REMAIN are having a bad moment.

    You're still gonna triumph on the 23rd, but let us enjoy these battlefield victories. So far this is an easy win for LEAVE.
    Exactly. That's TSE's way of saying "we're losing".
    Distraction politics, oh look at this over there.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,407
    The Guardian has Remain romping it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,407
    Bullseye from Andrea. Nicola out for the count.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Leadsom nailed Sturgeon
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,132
    Had a very interesting conversation with a voter tonight.

    He said he wanted to Vote Leave, but he thought it might be risky, what might persuade him in the future was if another country left and see how they did.

    If we don't leave in a fortnight, which will be the first country to leave?

    They prepared to be a lab rat for leaving the EU for our benefit?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,703
    tlg86 said:

    The Guardian has Remain romping it.

    As a remainer I do not agree with them. Leave are winning this
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172
    Leadsom's political antennae are tremendous.

    So much applause.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Sturgeon is as toxic as Farage.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @GideonWise

    'Rudd floundering now and she knows it.'


    Don't think she'll be making any more public appearances for Remain.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ha! Andrea comparing Nicola to the EU re voting again until she gets the answer she wants.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    tlg86 said:

    The Guardian has Remain romping it.

    And in other news, I hear that bears like to defecate in groups of trees...at least we know what the BBC will be saying.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,407
    Amber going out to bat for Nicola. The one thing she really shouldn't be collaborating with her partner on!
  • Amber looks like she's auditioning for a Miss Whiplash phonebox photocard.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Any sensible voter at the end of tonight would be asking:

    How are Gisela Stuart and Angela Eagle in the same party?!

    How are Andrea Leadsom and Amber Crudd in the same party?!
  • Too much hectoring from Amber Rudd. But that is the opinion of a LEAVEr.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    Remain have brought rock, paper and scissors to a sovereignty fight.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Had a very interesting conversation with a voter tonight.

    He said he wanted to Vote Leave, but he thought it might be risky, what might persuade him in the future was if another country left and see how they did.

    If we don't leave in a fortnight, which will be the first country to leave?

    They prepared to be a lab rat for leaving the EU for our benefit?

    There's a fighting chance it might be France. In which case, I shall become an ardent Remainer and look forward to the London-Berlin axis crushing all beneath it's booted heel.
    Hey, a girl can dream.
  • Amber looks like she's auditioning for a Miss Whiplash phonebox photocard.

    er yes Dominatrix. Some like that though (not I).
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Andrea Leadsom on the warpath. Boris fading into the background.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046

    tlg86 said:

    The Guardian has Remain romping it.

    As a remainer I do not agree with them. Leave are winning this
    Credit to you for saying that, Big G.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Amber looks like she's auditioning for a Miss Whiplash phonebox photocard.

    :smiley:
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Montie is turning in to Eoin for level of insight value.

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie 20m20 minutes ago
    Inners are Britisceptics. They think economy will fail. There'll be WW3. We'll treat workers badly. They may love UK but don't believe in it

    Ruth DavidsonVerified account
    @RuthDavidsonMSP
    @montie @alexmassie you called inners Britsceptics. I've spent years of my life fighting to keep Britain together, so don't take it kindly.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Crudd: "We win those votes in the EU" - what about the 72 lost votes?!!!!!
  • tlg86 said:

    The Guardian has Remain romping it.

    As a remainer I do not agree with them. Leave are winning this
    Credit to you for saying that, Big G.
    Big G wins the PB comment contest.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,230

    John_M said:

    hunchman said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looking at the comments on Sarah Wollaston's blog, I would guess that South Hams Conservatives are not a happy ship at the moment.

    Picking up on some real local anger....
    Mutiny in Dartmouth and the South Hams on the cards!
    I read the comments. They're pretty evenly split between angry and supportive. She's going to be fine. I don't understand why she did what she did, but it's hardly the end of the world.
    Nobody can understand what she did. Or what her attitude is to the EU now.
    The comments are split 2:1 against.

    Most people would have expected her to support Remain. South Hams is eurosceptic, but had she supported Remain, I'm sure people would have just shrugged. It's supporting Brexit repeatedly, up till 5 days ago, and then completely changing sides that's hard to fathom.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited June 2016
    Yep, I'm a Remainer but Leave are clearly doing better here. Eagle is an utter embarrassment and Boris doing very well.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,703
    Freggles said:

    Andrea Leadsom on the warpath. Boris fading into the background.

    That is why he will not succeed David Cameron - Andrea would be better and others
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    tlg86 said:

    The Guardian has Remain romping it.

    As a remainer I do not agree with them. Leave are winning this
    Credit to you for saying that, Big G.
    Shame he can't retract his statement that I was being naive re tonight's debate.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    James Forsyth‏ @JGForsyth
    Wonder if the Remain side have forgotten that Tory modernising dictum, that what you say about others tells voters more about you than them
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Freggles said:

    Andrea Leadsom on the warpath. Boris fading into the background.

    That is why he will not succeed David Cameron - Andrea would be better and others
    Never mind Andrea, we need Gisela to defect ;).
  • James Forsyth‏ @JGForsyth
    Wonder if the Remain side have forgotten that Tory modernising dictum, that what you say about others tells voters more about you than them

    Accords with my view as a member.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    tlg86 said:

    The Guardian has Remain romping it.

    They had Clegg romping it against Farage, IIRC.

    Reminded me of CNN saying it had been a good week for Marco Rubio week after week.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    John_M said:

    Had a very interesting conversation with a voter tonight.

    He said he wanted to Vote Leave, but he thought it might be risky, what might persuade him in the future was if another country left and see how they did.

    If we don't leave in a fortnight, which will be the first country to leave?

    They prepared to be a lab rat for leaving the EU for our benefit?

    There's a fighting chance it might be France. In which case, I shall become an ardent Remainer and look forward to the London-Berlin axis crushing all beneath it's booted heel.
    Hey, a girl can dream.
    So sod everyone else including the Greeks and Italians and eastern Europeans and Nordics. Wow that's a positive vision for the future!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    You'd be hard pressed to get a more whiny annoying voice than Angela Eagle!
  • John_M said:

    Freggles said:

    Andrea Leadsom on the warpath. Boris fading into the background.

    That is why he will not succeed David Cameron - Andrea would be better and others
    Never mind Andrea, we need Gisela to defect ;).
    Gisela is an old style Labour person - no chance of defection. But she has done very well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    hunchman said:

    You'd be hard pressed to get a more whiny annoying voice than Angela Eagle!

    Her sister?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    hunchman said:

    John_M said:

    Had a very interesting conversation with a voter tonight.

    He said he wanted to Vote Leave, but he thought it might be risky, what might persuade him in the future was if another country left and see how they did.

    If we don't leave in a fortnight, which will be the first country to leave?

    They prepared to be a lab rat for leaving the EU for our benefit?

    There's a fighting chance it might be France. In which case, I shall become an ardent Remainer and look forward to the London-Berlin axis crushing all beneath it's booted heel.
    Hey, a girl can dream.
    So sod everyone else including the Greeks and Italians and eastern Europeans and Nordics. Wow that's a positive vision for the future!
    It was a quip hunchman, not a fecking manifesto commitment er I mean, ambition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    Isabel Oakeshott‏ @IsabelOakeshott
    Of all the hundreds of MPs I've dealt with over the years, @andrealeadsom is one of the very most impressive #ITVEURef
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Gisela. Deliver us from Jeremy Corbyn.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    chestnut said:

    Sturgeon is as toxic as Farage.

    I would guess she is aware of that viz large proportions of the English electorate.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    The applause for Leave is very telling
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278

    Isabel Oakeshott‏ @IsabelOakeshott
    Of all the hundreds of MPs I've dealt with over the years, @andrealeadsom is one of the very most impressive #ITVEURef

    Leadsom vs. Stuart GE 2020. You heard it here first :D:p
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,891
    No applause at all for Amber Rudd. Oops.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,172
    I bet Rudd thinks she is a brilliant communicator.
    Just sounds patronising to me....
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Montie is turning in to Eoin for level of insight value.

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie 20m20 minutes ago
    Inners are Britisceptics. They think economy will fail. There'll be WW3. We'll treat workers badly. They may love UK but don't believe in it

    Ruth DavidsonVerified account
    @RuthDavidsonMSP
    @montie @alexmassie you called inners Britsceptics. I've spent years of my life fighting to keep Britain together, so don't take it kindly.

    Montie is way past his sell-buy date.

  • Only seen the 2nd half of the debate tonight.
    My thought for this evening on watching it is.
    Why hasn't anyone from the Leave campaign said anything like this?

    " We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels."

    It is nearly 30 years old but is just as relevant today.


  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    The Times RedBox worm is revealing - anytime remain speak it goes negative but when Leaver speak its all positive
  • Freggles said:

    Andrea Leadsom on the warpath. Boris fading into the background.

    That is why he will not succeed David Cameron - Andrea would be better and others
    Andrea still 30/1 next PM Betfair. I had a few quid on higher odds.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    Dennis Skinner has just come out for Leave.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,132

    The applause for Leave is very telling

    In case you missed it, I'll take the £20 on the 14/1 on Dr Wollaston bet.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Angela Eagle getting laughed at.

    TSE are you named after her? :trollface:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    By the lack of comments regarding Boris, I.am going to take it he didn't say much. Probably wise.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Dennis Skinner has just come out for Leave.

    Great to have the Beast of Bolsover on our side. Time to defeat Dodgy Dave!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278

    By the lack of comments regarding Boris, I.am going to take it he didn't say much. Probably wise.

    Yep, and lots of agreeing with his fellow panelists.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,132
    Freggles said:

    Angela Eagle getting laughed at.

    TSE are you named after her? :trollface:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/101st_Airborne_Division
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    By the lack of comments regarding Boris, I.am going to take it he didn't say much. Probably wise.

    he's had a few good lines, but as the biggest target he's been smart to stay out of the limelight. His team mates have been excellent, indeed Andrea has rescued him a couple of times when under attack.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Eagle sounds like a village idiot
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,046
    SeanT said:

    Barring some disasters, this is a clear win for LEAVE

    REMAIN were hindered by Sturgeon's absurdity, and Eagle's silly voice

    Boris did OK, given that he is a bad debater, Leadsom was a star, Stuart hugely improved after a shaky start

    Will it have any effect? There I dunno.

    Probably not. There's the tragedy for Leave.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If Gisele was Labour leader I would vote Labour over a GO led Con party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923

    Dennis Skinner has just come out for Leave.

    But but but what about workers right etc...until we joined the eu we were still shoving 10 year old up chimneys etc.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    By the lack of comments regarding Boris, I.am going to take it he didn't say much. Probably wise.

    Boris needed, at a minimum, to not fuck it up. He gets a C+.

    There won't be an enormous line of Tory MPs queuing to pledge allegiance to him as King-in-Waiting based on that performance.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,857
    I'm usually a big fan of raptors but don't rate either Eagles at all. Can't imagine why they put her up for Labour when they could have had someone like Berger, Creasy or De Piero if it had to be a woman.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,132

    Eagle sounds like a village idiot

    She thought she came to a general election debate.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Have to say, Sturgeon was the wrong person to bring along here.

    I can't think of a single good point she's made.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278
    Agree on Nicola's point on Turkey. Leave shouldn't be playing that hard on it, given how far away it is (despite it being UK policy for us to support their membership).
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    The applause for Leave is very telling

    In case you missed it, I'll take the £20 on the 14/1 on Dr Wollaston bet.
    OK remind me again of the terms please
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Andrea Leadsom is very impressive.

    She has that Thatcher ability to make things very clear very articulately. Very directly to the point.

    Whether you agree with her or not, it's a great skill.

    Rudd has put me off the environment. Makes me want to set fire to my wheelie bin.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923

    Eagle sounds like a village idiot

    Only sounds like one?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,015

    Freggles said:

    Andrea Leadsom on the warpath. Boris fading into the background.

    That is why he will not succeed David Cameron - Andrea would be better and others
    She needs a big Cabinet job first
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,132
    SeanT said:

    Andrea Leadsome should be the next Tory leader.

    Yeah, but Mike got on her at 90/1, if she does, we'll never hear the end of it.

    You know what he was like when a 50/1 came in.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,703
    SeanT said:

    Barring some disasters, this is a clear win for LEAVE

    REMAIN were hindered by Sturgeon's absurdity, and Eagle's silly voice

    Boris did OK, given that he is a bad debater, Leadsom was a star, Stuart hugely improved after a shaky start

    Will it have any effect? There I dunno.

    It depends on whether it changes the narrative but Boris talking about 5 Presidents report must seem abstract to the voter
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    TGOHF said:

    If Gisele was Labour leader I would vote Labour over a GO led Con party.

    Me too.

    She's very knowledgeable tonight
  • TGOHF said:

    If Gisele was Labour leader I would vote Labour over a GO led Con party.

    Me too.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Reshuffle has comedy potential. If Dave has a highly developed sense of humour he'll stick Rudd and Leadsom in the same department again

    — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 9, 2016
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    Fenster said:

    Andrea Leadsom is very impressive.

    She has that Thatcher ability to make things very clear very articulately. Very directly to the point.

    Whether you agree with her or not, it's a great skill.

    Rudd has put me off the environment. Makes me want to set fire to my wheelie bin.

    LOL yes but she might spank you first, in her best leathers.
  • John_M said:

    By the lack of comments regarding Boris, I.am going to take it he didn't say much. Probably wise.

    Boris needed, at a minimum, to not fuck it up. He gets a C+.

    There won't be an enormous line of Tory MPs queuing to pledge allegiance to him as King-in-Waiting based on that performance.
    Maybe, but he works well as a team player. Compared to the 3 REMAIN ladies.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,407
    RobD said:

    Agree on Nicola's point on Turkey. Leave shouldn't be playing that hard on it, given how far away it is (despite it being UK policy for us to support their membership).

    I agree, but last night I thought Osborne's most awkward and uncomfortable moment was when Neil pressed him on Britain supporting Turkey's membership. Very odd.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,132

    The applause for Leave is very telling

    In case you missed it, I'll take the £20 on the 14/1 on Dr Wollaston bet.
    OK remind me again of the terms please
    If Remain wins, and Sarah Wollaston becomes a minister by the end of 2016, you win £20
    If Remain wins, and Sarah Wollaston does not become a minister by the end of 2016, I win £280

    If Leave wins, bet void
This discussion has been closed.