politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton wins a majority of pledged delegates but Sa

VapidBilge said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

Not paranoid...

@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.

Funny. There were elections all over the UK in April. What exactly is wrong with using that roll?

There were a few local by-elections in April.

But I think you mean the proper ones on May 5th.

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.

Mr. T., there was that feeling on here the morning after Cameron's first TV interview. I commented on at it the time. The stuffing seemed to have gone from the supporters of remain on this site. I didn't understand it then and I am not sure I do now, but I note several prominent remainers on here have since seemingly given up.

If this site is in anyway reflective of the wider electorate, even at second or third order of differential then maybe, just maybe there might be cautious grounds for some optimism that Leave can actually win.

Either way, I suspect that we are in for a period of great political turmoil, and the smug elites will not hold such sway again.

Perhaps the Remainers on this site have been won over by the intellectual arguments presented by the Leavers.

I dont think a legal challenge will get very far but if Remain just win it after first the bias leaflets and now this I fesr for civil cohesion. At best the tories and lwbour will suffer south of the border like Laboue suffered north of the border after indyref.

Remaun are playing straight out of the Zanu PF book.

That said I suspect that 90% of those registering since Monday are actually already on it and dont realise it.

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

midwinter said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960

Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).

Nah. Dave is Voldemort

Thought you might think that!!

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

I am all over a Leave vote from a betting perspective and will clean up big time on 24th June, but isn't voter registration being extended because the Electoral Commission recommended it?

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

VapidBilge said:

JohnO said:

VapidBilge said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

Not paranoid...

@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.

Funny. There were elections all over the UK in April. What exactly is wrong with using that roll?

There were a few local by-elections in April.

But I think you mean the proper ones on May 5th.

Gosh, that recent.

Again, why the fuss?

Because there weren't local elections everywhere....

@Indigo I have never shied away from confrontation. I wouldn't be much of a lawyer if I did.

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/732785721145188352

TGOHF said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Blimey, Sharapova gets a two year ban

Seems harsh.

Nah - she's a propah cheat.

Not so. It's extremely harsh on her. The tribunal noted that she had not deliberately continued taking her meds knowing that they had recently been banned. I'm not sure what cause the judgement serves beyond letting sanctimonious "rules are rules" types have their day in the sun.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

VapidBilge said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

Not paranoid...

@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.

Funny. There were elections all over the UK in April. What exactly is wrong with using that roll?

Contains people not eligible to vote in the EU ref.

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Channel Islands no - because they are not in the EU (apart from the Customs Union) and are not part of the UK.

If it was an organisation chart, the Channel Islands would report directly to the Queen....

midwinter said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

midwinter said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960

Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).

Nah. Dave is Voldemort

Thought you might think that!!

Actually to be fair I tend to use another epic fantasy tale for my comparisons.

I see Juncker as Sauron in his fastness in Mordor (AKA Brussels)

Dave in that case would be Saruman at Isenguard. A wannabe power who pretends to be friendly to the freedom loving peoples of the West but is actually consorting with the dark Lord in the hope of gaining more power for himself.

Osborne can be Gríma Wormtongue.

Of course Michael Gove has to be Frodo. He even looks like him.

So who else do we have?

Corbyn could be Denethor, alone in his ivory tower, slowly being abandoned by his advisors as he descends into madness.

I see Boris as Boromir (They even have the same first three letters!!!) hoping to get the power for himself.

VapidBilge said:

midwinter said:

VapidBilge said:

JohnO said:

VapidBilge said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

Not paranoid...

@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.

Funny. There were elections all over the UK in April. What exactly is wrong with using that roll?

There were a few local by-elections in April.

But I think you mean the proper ones on May 5th.

Gosh, that recent.

Again, why the fuss?

Because there weren't local elections everywhere....

PCC elections?

As you well understand many people wouldn't have bothered to register for those. Hence the derisory turnout

midwinter said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

midwinter said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960

Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).

Nah. Dave is Voldemort

Thought you might think that!!

Osborne is Wormtail.

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

My gut tells me they might.

What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?

My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.

But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.

Dunno.

Put a gun to most people's heads and they couldn't name one ECJ judgement that they believe has infringed our sovereignty.

But they sure as hell would be able to tell you the immigration numbers.

Votes for prisoners.

They'd also cite Human Rights for terrorists (even though that's far more complicated as it's a function of ECHR v. Charter of Fundamental Rights v. ECJ v. UK's own HRA)

dugarbandier said:

HurstLlama said:

If this site is in anyway reflective of the wider electorate, even at second or third order of differential .

it really isn't tho, is it?

still, it does seem close at the moment

Representative in the first order, I very much doubt it, in fact I sure that it is not - far too many wheel-heeled people who can post in the during the working day for a start. However, once you get into differentials I don't think the picture is so clear cut.

Perhaps this is less true than it was when I first came on here (2007) but we all bring our real-world experience with us when we honestly post on here and we also bring our willingness to bet on our opinions. So from that I think one should be able to get some feeling as to how the wider electorate is going to go (with lots of caveats). Which is more or less what I meant by second and third order differentiation.

Of course some posters are just self-obsessed knobs and one just has to learn to tune them out because their posts are ego trips and not worth reading. One or two other posters would appear to be party clowns, whatever their party come up with they will support, again to be read with discretion. But if you can duck the bullshi, you can find nuggets of pure gold on PB about how the country is feeling. The last GE is a case in point, Ave-It called iy on here hours before the MSM caught up.

Just looking over the archives for April 2015 before the GE, and Ave_It was predicting another 1992- Tories 38% and Labour28% I wonder how right even he thought he was?
I wonder what he is predicting for the ref?

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.


(1) Talk of ignoring the result
(2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain
(3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line
(4) Last minute press conference by PM
(5) Pushing out voter registration deadline

So if Remain win by 10-20 points, which nefarious skulduggery will have done it?

I'm not falling prey to hubris but I don't think that's where we're heading.

If you doubt my sincerity, check my entry into the pb.com competition where I predicted 58/42 to Remain.

Both TSE and the originator of Vapid Bilge had Remain at over 60%

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

I'm loving it. It fortifies my soul when I go out campaigning. Which I'm going to do tonight, again.

The interesting thing is how few PB leavers seem to be out campaigning for Leave.

Yet we've got you on the RUN

It's OK, Sean, it's OK

(ok last time I refer to that. promise. perhaps)

midwinter said:

Sean_F said:

midwinter said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

midwinter said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960

Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).

Nah. Dave is Voldemort

Thought you might think that!!

Osborne is Wormtail.

IDS is Gollum....seeking his precious

LOL That's very good.

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

My gut tells me they might.

What if those worried about economic fallout but also very concerned by ongoing high migration just can't bring themselves to turnout and actively cast that vote for Remain to endorse it, whilst the Leavers are more fired up than Mount Vesuvius ?

My head tells me the turnout to some extent will be self-correcting and that the UK (incl. NI and Gibraltar) will conspire to deliver a result of 51% or 52% to Remain.

But I could be wrong and there could be something more visceral going on here.

Dunno.

Put a gun to most people's heads and they couldn't name one ECJ judgement that they believe has infringed our sovereignty.

But they sure as hell would be able to tell you the immigration numbers.

Votes for prisoners.

They'd also cite Human Rights for terrorists (even though that's far more complicated as it's a function of ECHR v. Charter of Fundamental Rights v. ECJ v. UK's own HRA)

QED

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Gibraltar is in the EU, but Man, Guernsey and Jersey are NOT in the EU.

Seems that isn't a very well known factoid

HurstLlama said:

dugarbandier said:

HurstLlama said:

If this site is in anyway reflective of the wider electorate, even at second or third order of differential .

it really isn't tho, is it?

still, it does seem close at the moment

Representative in the first order, I very much doubt it, in fact I sure that it is not - far too many wheel-heeled people who can post in the during the working day for a start. However, once you get into differentials I don't think the picture is so clear cut.

Perhaps this is less true than it was when I first came on here (2007) but we all bring our real-world experience with us when we honestly post on here and we also bring our willingness to bet on our opinions. So from that I think one should be able to get some feeling as to how the wider electorate is going to go (with lots of caveats). Which is more or less what I meant by second and third order differentiation.

Of course some posters are just self-obsessed knobs and one just has to learn to tune them out because their posts are ego trips and not worth reading. One or two other posters would appear to be party clowns, whatever their party come up with they will support, again to be read with discretion. But if you can duck the bullshi, you can find nuggets of pure gold on PB about how the country is feeling. The last GE is a case in point, Ave-It called iy on here hours before the MSM caught up.

A bit like advertising, eh? Which damn 50% is it?

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.


(1) Talk of ignoring the result
(2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain
(3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line
(4) Last minute press conference by PM
(5) Pushing out voter registration deadline

So if Remain win by 10-20 points, which nefarious skulduggery will have done it?

Both TSE and the originator of Vapid Bilge had Remain at over 60%

Is 60% for REMAIN the definition of Vapid Bilge?

CarlottaVance said:

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Channel Islands no - because they are not in the EU (apart from the Customs Union) and are not part of the UK.

If it was an organisation chart, the Channel Islands would report directly to the Queen....

Emerges boldly from pedant's corner.

The Queen? You mean the Duke of Normandy surely in their case? (Oddly she is the Duke I think and not the Duchess - go figure).

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

Not paranoid...

@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.

How did their legal action to stop Farage appearing with Cameron go?

That was Vote Leave

welshowl said:

CarlottaVance said:

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Channel Islands no - because they are not in the EU (apart from the Customs Union) and are not part of the UK.

If it was an organisation chart, the Channel Islands would report directly to the Queen....

The Queen? You mean the Duke of Normandy surely in their case? (Oddly she is the Duke I think and not the Duchess - go figure).

Phallic, er I mean Salic Law

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

I'm loving it. It fortifies my soul when I go out campaigning. Which I'm going to do tonight, again.

The interesting thing is how few PB leavers seem to be out campaigning for Leave.

So let me get this right.

First there was the 9m pound brochure
Most of the world's great and the good telling us the world would end
World War 3 "could" happen we are told
Economic Armageddon "could" happen we are told
Refugee camps in Kent "could" happen we are told
Leave have all the unsavory types like Farage
Remain have all the saints like the ABoC and Obama
Three months of campaigning with the full force of the civil service
AND the Leavers can't be bothered to go out and canvass apparently.

That must explain why Remain is 20% ahead in the polls.

You are missing out on about 100 other reasons why REMAIN must win according to REMAIN "experts".
Though we should include "adding more young people to the register".

Sunil_Prasannan said:

welshowl said:

CarlottaVance said:

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Channel Islands no - because they are not in the EU (apart from the Customs Union) and are not part of the UK.

If it was an organisation chart, the Channel Islands would report directly to the Queen....

The Queen? You mean the Duke of Normandy surely in their case? (Oddly she is the Duke I think and not the Duchess - go figure).

Phallic, er I mean Salic Law

Right first time really.

Not sure if already posted but the Cameron / Farage ITV programme last night averaged 4.1m and peaked at 4.8m (towards the end of Cameron's half).

That is a far higher rating than would have been expected for what was a pretty bland format for people not interested in current affairs.

I think this is another strong pointer towards a high turnout.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

I'm loving it. It fortifies my soul when I go out campaigning. Which I'm going to do tonight, again.

The interesting thing is how few PB leavers seem to be out campaigning for Leave.

So let me get this right.

First there was the 9m pound brochure
Most of the world's great and the good telling us the world would end
World War 3 "could" happen we are told
Economic Armageddon "could" happen we are told
Refugee camps in Kent "could" happen we are told
Leave have all the unsavory types like Farage
Remain have all the saints like the ABoC and Obama
Three months of campaigning with the full force of the civil service
AND the Leavers can't be bothered to go out and canvass apparently.

That must explain why Remain is 20% ahead in the polls.

Christ, you must come to the UK, living in The Philippines really is distorting your perception of reality.

If I come back and find Britain is not the PB Tory utopia I imagined I will be very disappointed.

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

midwinter said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960

Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).

Nah. Dave is Voldemort

Thought you might think that!!

Actually to be fair I tend to use another epic fantasy tale for my comparisons.

I see Juncker as Sauron in his fastness in Mordor (AKA Brussels)

Dave in that case would be Saruman at Isenguard. A wannabe power who pretends to be friendly to the freedom loving peoples of the West but is actually consorting with the dark Lord in the hope of gaining more power for himself.

Osborne can be Gríma Wormtongue.

Of course Michael Gove has to be Frodo. He even looks like him.

So who else do we have?

Corbyn could be Denethor, alone in his ivory tower, slowly being abandoned by his advisors as he descends into madness.

I see Boris as Boromir (They even have the same first three letters!!!) hoping to get the power for himself.

Farage as Gollum, unable to part with "the Precious" (UKIP leadership).

No Farage has to be Aragorn. The loner, the ranger, the rightful heir to Minas Tirith who will come again in triumph when the dark lord is defeated.

Or Gollum.

50:50 really

:-)

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

I'm loving it. It fortifies my soul when I go out campaigning. Which I'm going to do tonight, again.

The interesting thing is how few PB leavers seem to be out campaigning for Leave.

So let me get this right.

First there was the 9m pound brochure
Most of the world's great and the good telling us the world would end
World War 3 "could" happen we are told
Economic Armageddon "could" happen we are told
Refugee camps in Kent "could" happen we are told
Leave have all the unsavory types like Farage
Remain have all the saints like the ABoC and Obama
Three months of campaigning with the full force of the civil service
AND the Leavers can't be bothered to go out and canvass apparently.

That must explain why Remain is 20% ahead in the polls.

Christ, you must come to the UK, living in The Philippines really is distorting your perception of reality.

If I come back and find Britain is not the PB Tory utopia I imagined I will be very disappointed.

It won't be PB Tory utopia until George Osborne becomes PM.

But come to Yorkshire, that is pure utopia.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.


(1) Talk of ignoring the result
(2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain
(3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line
(4) Last minute press conference by PM
(5) Pushing out voter registration deadline

So if Remain win by 10-20 points, which nefarious skulduggery will have done it?

I'm not falling prey to hubris but I don't think that's where we're heading.

If you doubt my sincerity, check my entry into the pb.com competition where I predicted 58/42 to Remain.

Both TSE and the originator of Vapid Bilge had Remain at over 60%

Point of order, my prediction was Remain by around 12-15%, which is Remain on tops 57.5%

That's your prediction now, it wasn't then.

Richard_Tyndall said:

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

midwinter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

midwinter said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

We can conclude from the last minute extension of the voting registration deadline, as well as other moves this week from Remain and the PM, that the Remain camp are concerned this vote is going to be extremely close.

Bet accordingly.

All the signs tell me that REMAIN now believe they are going to lose.

I don't think they will lose, but they have the look of defeat in their sunken eyes.

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739207060286504960

Very good....but seriously some of this lunacy is very off putting to people who might be minded to vote Leave. Really some of you are like Death Eaters accusing anyone from Remain of being or consorting with mud bloods. (Obviously Dave is Dumbledore).

Nah. Dave is Voldemort

Thought you might think that!!

Actually to be fair I tend to use another epic fantasy tale for my comparisons.

I see Juncker as Sauron in his fastness in Mordor (AKA Brussels)

Dave in that case would be Saruman at Isenguard. A wannabe power who pretends to be friendly to the freedom loving peoples of the West but is actually consorting with the dark Lord in the hope of gaining more power for himself.

Osborne can be Gríma Wormtongue.

Of course Michael Gove has to be Frodo. He even looks like him.

So who else do we have?

Corbyn could be Denethor, alone in his ivory tower, slowly being abandoned by his advisors as he descends into madness.

I see Boris as Boromir (They even have the same first three letters!!!) hoping to get the power for himself.

Farage as Gollum, unable to part with "the Precious" (UKIP leadership).

No Farage has to be Aragorn. The loner, the ranger, the rightful heir to Minas Tirith who will come again in triumph when the dark lord is defeated.

Or Gollum.

50:50 really

:-)

I've got two LOTR themed threads coming up. Here's the excerpt from the one you'll like.

At the start of the campaign I thought Leave would be like the Charge of the Light Brigade, but you know what, the more the campaign goes on, it appears to be like to be Charge of the Rohirrim at Pelennor Fields.

perdix said:

welshowl said:

CarlottaVance said:

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Channel Islands no - because they are not in the EU (apart from the Customs Union) and are not part of the UK.

If it was an organisation chart, the Channel Islands would report directly to the Queen....

Emerges boldly from pedant's corner.

The Queen? You mean the Duke of Normandy surely in their case? (Oddly she is the Duke I think and not the Duchess - go figure).

Do I rember correctly that HMQ is referred to in the coronation ceremony as "Queen of France"?

You remember incorrectly, unless you count "her other realms and territories, Queen" as including France.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

I'm loving it. It fortifies my soul when I go out campaigning. Which I'm going to do tonight, again.

The interesting thing is how few PB leavers seem to be out campaigning for Leave.

So let me get this right.

First there was the 9m pound brochure
Most of the world's great and the good telling us the world would end
World War 3 "could" happen we are told
Economic Armageddon "could" happen we are told
Refugee camps in Kent "could" happen we are told
Leave have all the unsavory types like Farage
Remain have all the saints like the ABoC and Obama
Three months of campaigning with the full force of the civil service
AND the Leavers can't be bothered to go out and canvass apparently.

That must explain why Remain is 20% ahead in the polls.

Christ, you must come to the UK, living in The Philippines really is distorting your perception of reality.

If I come back and find Britain is not the PB Tory utopia I imagined I will be very disappointed.

As I look out over the village green, the sun is dipping over the church. The two cricket teams, having just finished playing, are walking arm in arm towards the pub, laughing about the day's exploits. The clock chimes, there is the smell of baking from a hundred thatched cottages. Children are playing tag in the street.

All is well.

And in @Indigo's mind, the EU is coming to mess it all up.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

I'm loving it. It fortifies my soul when I go out campaigning. Which I'm going to do tonight, again.

The interesting thing is how few PB leavers seem to be out campaigning for Leave.

So let me get this right.

First there was the 9m pound brochure
Most of the world's great and the good telling us the world would end
World War 3 "could" happen we are told
Economic Armageddon "could" happen we are told
Refugee camps in Kent "could" happen we are told
Leave have all the unsavory types like Farage
Remain have all the saints like the ABoC and Obama
Three months of campaigning with the full force of the civil service
AND the Leavers can't be bothered to go out and canvass apparently.

That must explain why Remain is 20% ahead in the polls.

Christ, you must come to the UK, living in The Philippines really is distorting your perception of reality.

If I come back and find Britain is not the PB Tory utopia I imagined I will be very disappointed.

It won't be PB Tory utopia until George Osborne becomes PM.

Osborne has a -41 rating amongst tory members which is equivalent to something smelly and unpleasant on the bottom of a shoe.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/cameron-slumps-boris-slides-and-davidson-soars-in-our-cabinet-league-table.html

@H_L_Thompson: Leave.EU 'THE EU ISN'T DEMOCRATIC'
Also Leave.EU 'nah don't let young people register to vote. they'll vote remain' https://t.co/9nYiMnEPBU

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Indigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The quietness of Remainers has more to do with the fact that quite a few of them have evidently decided that they have better things to do with their time than hang around somewhere where they routinely get called quislings and traitors by swivel-eyed Leavers.

I'm loving it. It fortifies my soul when I go out campaigning. Which I'm going to do tonight, again.

The interesting thing is how few PB leavers seem to be out campaigning for Leave.

So let me get this right.

First there was the 9m pound brochure
Most of the world's great and the good telling us the world would end
World War 3 "could" happen we are told
Economic Armageddon "could" happen we are told
Refugee camps in Kent "could" happen we are told
Leave have all the unsavory types like Farage
Remain have all the saints like the ABoC and Obama
Three months of campaigning with the full force of the civil service
AND the Leavers can't be bothered to go out and canvass apparently.

That must explain why Remain is 20% ahead in the polls.

Christ, you must come to the UK, living in The Philippines really is distorting your perception of reality.

If I come back and find Britain is not the PB Tory utopia I imagined I will be very disappointed.

It won't be PB Tory utopia until George Osborne becomes PM.

Osborne has a -41 rating amongst tory members which is equivalent to something smelly and unpleasant on the bottom of a shoe.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/cameron-slumps-boris-slides-and-davidson-soars-in-our-cabinet-league-table.html

And he's had worse ratings and recovered before.

PS Are those ConHome polls conducted by Andrew Cooper's ComRes?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

midwinter said:

As opposed to the glitter of rabid paranoia in the eyes of many Leavers this afternoon?

Not paranoid...

@henrymance: Leave.EU is considering legal action over extension of registration deadline. Source says gov has unfairly focused on younger voters.

How did their legal action to stop Farage appearing with Cameron go?

That was Vote Leave

How did that turn out?

RobD said:

perdix said:

welshowl said:

CarlottaVance said:

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Channel Islands no - because they are not in the EU (apart from the Customs Union) and are not part of the UK.

If it was an organisation chart, the Channel Islands would report directly to the Queen....

Emerges boldly from pedant's corner.

The Queen? You mean the Duke of Normandy surely in their case? (Oddly she is the Duke I think and not the Duchess - go figure).

Do I rember correctly that HMQ is referred to in the coronation ceremony as "Queen of France"?

You remember incorrectly, unless you count "her other realms and territories, Queen" as including France.

British Monarchs gave up the claim to the throne of France in 1801, after that country became a Republic.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

No side that expected to win comfortably would have had supporters discussing ways in which Parliament could ignore the result.


(1) Talk of ignoring the result
(2) Total saturation of Canary Wharf yesterday with adverts to vote Remain
(3) Cameron pushing a Little England, Greater Britain line
(4) Last minute press conference by PM
(5) Pushing out voter registration deadline

So if Remain win by 10-20 points, which nefarious skulduggery will have done it?

I'm not falling prey to hubris but I don't think that's where we're heading.

If you doubt my sincerity, check my entry into the pb.com competition where I predicted 58/42 to Remain.

Both TSE and the originator of Vapid Bilge had Remain at over 60%

Point of order, my prediction was Remain by around 12-15%, which is Remain on tops 57.5%

That's your prediction now, it wasn't then.

It was my hope and aspiration, I wasn't expecting the Farage lite duplicitous foghorn Boris and Gove are playing on Turkey.

I thought they were better than that.

Ah, there we have it.

You might remember my other prediction from February. If Leave were spending the last few weeks of the referendum talking exclusively about immigration/Muslims then it was purely a core vote strategy by Leave in anticipation of a shellacking.

perdix said:

welshowl said:

CarlottaVance said:

David_Evershed said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Gibraltar also has a different constitutional relationship with the UK, than Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.

Gibraltar is an Overseas Territory (along with your Falklands, Diego Garcia, Bermuda et al.)

Man, Guernsey and Jersey are Crown Dependencies.

Do people in the IoM and Channel Isles get a vote in the referendum then?

Channel Islands no - because they are not in the EU (apart from the Customs Union) and are not part of the UK.

If it was an organisation chart, the Channel Islands would report directly to the Queen....

Emerges boldly from pedant's corner.

The Queen? You mean the Duke of Normandy surely in their case? (Oddly she is the Duke I think and not the Duchess - go figure).

Do I rember correctly that HMQ is referred to in the coronation ceremony as "Queen of France"?

Think we gave that up in 1803 at the Peace of Amiens ( half time break of 11 months for lemons in the middle of the Napoleonic Wars). Probably on the grounds that as the French no longer even had a monarch George III claiming to be it was probably not good PR for his claiming sanity. Of course the sneaky French went and created a bloody Empire complete with Napoleon with top monarchical title the following year. Rotters.

I think Acts of Parliament are still signed off in medieval Norman French as la Reine le vuelt (the Queen wills it).

Al good fun!