politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove’s very big night out

SouthamObserver said:

Wanderer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Wanderer said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@GdnPolitics: 'The Brexit lot are doing a victory lap already': readers on the EU referendum https://t.co/Y1mIxf8cl0

Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.

It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.

I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.

I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:

the refugee crisis has exploded
Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank
Boris has come out for Leave

which make it a lot harder.

I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)

Cameron clearly could not see that immigration would be the defining issue of the campaign. That makes him a complete fool. I am very happy with my 4-1 on Leave to win, and my 7-1 for them to win on a turnout of less than 65% (with an 8-1 saver for them to win on a turnout of over 65%).

He probably could see it but it's one thing to predict and another to counter it. How would you counter it?

With where we are now, it can't be countered. That's why Leave is likely to win. Someone thinking strategically, though, would not have played a pivotal role in helping to build the anti-immigrant narrative in the first place - especially while knowing that the government needed large scale immigration to have a chance of hitting its fiscal and economic targets.

dugarbandier said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jobabob said:

tyson said:

Last night I posted here that Corbyn's speech yesterday was his best yet- with his critique of Osborne's economic claims of a Brexit . But after thinking about it, Corbyn is such an idiot, a stupid man. He used his opportunity to make a case for the Euro to instead make cheap, crowd pleasing shots at Osborne. With such a tight vote looming this shows such lack of judgement, and lack of intelligence.

Exactly. That is precisely right. The self-serving idiot seems to forget we are all supposed to be on the same side. Once a eurosceptic...

As I said yesterday, knowing Corbyn is for Leave confirms to me that I am right to support Remain.

But Gerry Adams is for REMAIN. So is Tony Blair...

Where do the Krankies stand on this issue?

tyson said:

You are absolutely right. The fact that Corbyn is Labour leader allows the Tory to behave as they please knowing there will not be any electoral consequences.

Corbyn is a free pass for the Tories to indulge in the most terrible civil war about their favourite subject

Roger said:

tyson said:

Last night I posted here that Corbyn's speech yesterday was his best yet- with his critique of Osborne's economic claims of a Brexit . But after thinking about it, Corbyn is such an idiot, a stupid man. He used his opportunity to make a case for the Euro to instead make cheap, crowd pleasing shots at Osborne. With such a tight vote looming this shows such lack of judgement, and lack of intelligence.

I thought his speech wasn't at all helpful for Remain but that's the least of the damage he's doing.

The Tories would have hoofed out the loonies weeks ago if they'd had a viable opposition.

I heard IDS call Cameron a liar this morning. With unelectable Corbyn in charge why not?

Estobar said:

......And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@GdnPolitics: 'The Brexit lot are doing a victory lap already': readers on the EU referendum https://t.co/Y1mIxf8cl0

Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.

It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.

I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.

I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:

the refugee crisis has exploded
Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank
Boris has come out for Leave

which make it a lot harder.

I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)

Polls last year showed Remain with c.30% leads on a renegotiated deal

Both the UK Government and the EU have seriously fucked this up.

surbiton said:

Estobar said:

Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.

The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.

The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.

Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.

The new heroine , Soraya, of Kurdish descent, it seems, is herself being disingenuous. She assumes Turkey will be in the EU and no country can stop them.

28 vetoes are available !

TheScreamingEagles said:

As for Punters, currently they think the chance of Brexit is 28%

Scott_P said:

Estobar said:

The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished.

Apart from professional political commentators

@paulwaugh: Cameron has spent 11 years doing these CameronDirect events. And every minute of that experience shows. Unflappable is the word #InOrOut

@PCollinsTimes: What happened to Blair is happening to Cameron. Just as you get really good at the job, well-informed and fluent, you leave.

@PCollinsTimes: When I said Cameron was good at the job I meant he was impressive on Sky. Not that I am in love with him.

HurstLlama said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@GdnPolitics: 'The Brexit lot are doing a victory lap already': readers on the EU referendum https://t.co/Y1mIxf8cl0

Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.

It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.

I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.

I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:

the refugee crisis has exploded
Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank
Boris has come out for Leave

which make it a lot harder.

I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)

Polls last year showed Remain with c.30% leads on a renegotiated deal

Both the UK Government and the EU have seriously fucked this up.

That is my reading of it too, Mr Royale.

Maybe Cameron thought he could just walk over and convince the electorate with his wretched "deal" which isn't even guaranteed to be accepted by the EU if we vote to remain in. If so I fear he misread the mood of a big chunk of the the electorate. Then finding his plan had gone awry he doubled down on his trust factor (well he was more popular than his party,wasn't he - of course people would believe him) but people didn't. Keep going, push the same message but harder. Go on TV say the same and people laughed at him.

Well, he might yet get the result he wants but he has certainly destroyed his credibility and probably that of his party. Still none of that will affect him. As Mr. Observer noted earlier, Cameron can retire to his millions and no doubt some fat earning opportunities to keep the trust funds topped up and the consequences of his actions will fall on other, much less broad, shoulders.

Sometimes, I think Henry VIII had a point.

nunu said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

PAW said:

"EU offering loans and grants to Peugeot so they could relocate Ryton to Trnava in Slovakia" - so that is what happened.

Ryton not far from where I work.

BTW. Just saw remain campaigners outside work as I was popping out for lunch.

Exchange between us went like this:

- "Would you be interested in a Vote REMAIN leaflet?"
- "I'm voting LEAVE, thank you!"
- "Have a nice day!"

You should have said "Be Leave in Britain"!

blackburn63 said:

TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Estobar said:

Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.

The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.

The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.

Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.

Andrew Neil said Cameron was polished and assured.

Brexit supporter Iain Martin said Cameron did well.

So when you say no-one, you were like my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.

As for Punters, currently they think the chance of Brexit is 28%

Wanderer said:

Mortimer said:

surbiton said:

Estobar said:

Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.

The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.

The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.

Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.

The new heroine , Soraya, of Kurdish descent, it seems, is herself being disingenuous. She assumes Turkey will be in the EU and no country can stop them.

28 vetoes are available !

Yet still our government supports the application.

Why is that, do you think?

It's good policy to hold out at least the prospect of acceptance to Turkey. Why would you not do that?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

blackburn63 said:

TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.

TSE is Dave's biggest fan on PB

SouthamObserver said:

Gove will do fine. I doubt the audience will be as hostile as the one Cameron faced. It's not as if Remainers have the same passion for this as Leavers do.

I suspect he will get a lot of stuff about what happens after a Brexit vote and what guarantees he can give that everything will be OK.

saddened said:

How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?

saddened said:

blackburn63 said:

TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.

How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?

dr_spyn said:

About 3,500 ballot papers sent in error to EU citizens. Details still hidden in the press release.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-referendums/electoral-commission-update-on-non-eligible-eu-citizen-voters

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

On topic - there is only one Conservative (any party?) politician who seems to have come out of the Referendum with their reputation enhanced. A principled stand for Leaving the EU, but not prepared to deliver leaflets with "dodgy statistics about the NHS". Somebody who has been a fully paid up member of the awkward squad during the Cameron-Osborne years. But someone who could unite the party post referendum.

Someone who would strike fear into Labour and LibDems strategists. Someone who took on a constituency-wide open primary - and won the chance to fight against the LibDems in a marginal seat. And has now crushed them into fifth place, hoovering up their vote to get a majority of nearly 18,400 last year.

Somebody who was not a career politician, but had years of real world experience. Somebody who came late to politics and claimed their qualifications were "only real life experience, approachability and enthusiasm". Oh that there were 400 more of them in Westminster.

Somebody who may not have Cabinet experience, but does chair the Parliamentary Health Select Committee. They could kill off Labour hopes of making the NHS their own again.

Somebody who would have a head start with women voters.

I give you Dr Sarah Wollaston. Great value at 66-1...

She would be an excellent choice.

Far too good for the Tories.

GarethoftheVale2 said:

saddened said:

blackburn63 said:

TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.

How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?

I think Isabel Oakeshott made a good comment last night "David Cameron is a very good salesman but it doesn't change the fact that what he is selling is a rotten apple"

TCPoliticalBetting said:

SouthamObserver said:

Wanderer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Wanderer said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@GdnPolitics: 'The Brexit lot are doing a victory lap already': readers on the EU referendum https://t.co/Y1mIxf8cl0

Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.

It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.

I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.

I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:

the refugee crisis has exploded
Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank
Boris has come out for Leave

which make it a lot harder.

I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)

Cameron clearly could not see that immigration would be the defining issue of the campaign. That makes him a complete fool. I am very happy with my 4-1 on Leave to win, and my 7-1 for them to win on a turnout of less than 65% (with an 8-1 saver for them to win on a turnout of over 65%).

He probably could see it but it's one thing to predict and another to counter it. How would you counter it?

With where we are now, it can't be countered. That's why Leave is likely to win. Someone thinking strategically, though, would not have played a pivotal role in helping to build the anti-immigrant narrative in the first place - especially while knowing that the government needed large scale immigration to have a chance of hitting its fiscal and economic targets.

Anonymous sources from the civil service have been quoted by various hacks as saying that Cameron's idea of strategy is just to get through to Monday.

Stark_Dawning said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

saddened said:

blackburn63 said:

TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.

How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?

I think Isabel Oakeshott made a good comment last night "David Cameron is a very good salesman but it doesn't change the fact that what he is selling is a rotten apple"

The merits of the case are, of course, a matter of opinion. But the point under discussion was Dave's performance. I think we can all now agree the following: Dave was great.

PlatoSaid said:

YouGov
Big business, banks and politicians are seen as the main beneficiaries from the EU https://t.co/e62YmAoonK https://t.co/mQGEKsUq8m

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm sure that Michael Gove will do fine tonight. He has a very reasonable manner.

Richard_Nabavi said:

O/T I've just read the Iain Martin article about Corbyn which someone posted earlier:

http://capx.co/corbyn-is-getting-worse-the-man-is-a-total-twit/

Leaving aside his assessment of Corbyn's ability, there's a very significant betting angle in what he says:

Corbyn is absolutely full of himself. He thinks he’s fantastic and forgets any notion that he is reluctant to be in the public eye. Corbyn‎ is clearly loving the attention after years of being ignored and derided. Meeting the people keeps him “humble”, he says at one point. It is the most revealing moment in this gripping film. The thing about the humble is that they never need to point out that they are humble. It is part of the job description of the humble that they don’t say “look at me being humble”. Yet he signs his autograph with what looks like ‎a gold pen and even says he is going to sign his crop of apples. He’s in love with it all and goes around the country meeting only the tiny, deluded minority that thinks he will ever be Prime Minister. It is pathetic to watch.

If Iain Martin is half-way right about that, Corbyn is not going to stand down. And if he doesn't want to stand down, it's going to be jolly hard, probably impossible, for the saner elements within Labour get rid of him.

Wanderer said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@GdnPolitics: 'The Brexit lot are doing a victory lap already': readers on the EU referendum https://t.co/Y1mIxf8cl0

Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.

It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.

I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.

I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:

the refugee crisis has exploded
Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank
Boris has come out for Leave

which make it a lot harder.

I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)

perdix said:

Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.

Sean_F said:

Wanderer said:

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@GdnPolitics: 'The Brexit lot are doing a victory lap already': readers on the EU referendum https://t.co/Y1mIxf8cl0

Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.

It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.

I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.

I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:

the refugee crisis has exploded
Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank
Boris has come out for Leave

which make it a lot harder.

I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)

The first and third were known unknowns (people were crossing the Mediterranean in 2014, and Boris' ambition is no secret). They could have been planned for.

The second was an unknown unknown.

FrankBooth said:

perdix said:

Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.

What about a Tory leadership election between two women candidates? It would surely drive plenty in Labour mad. Leadsom was mentioned in an earlier thread too.

HurstLlama said:

RobD said:

perdix said:

Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.

Yeah, I think it was said she made a mistake by not going for Leave, but I think she's strengthened her position a bit by maintaining a low profile.

You mean she hasn't got the courage of her convictions. Great just what we need in a new PM .

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

She would be an excellent choice.

Far too good for the Tories.

But perhaps not too bad for the country? Silly tribalism there, Dr. Sox.

I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.

Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.

On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.

The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.

Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.

HurstLlama said:

@FoxinSox

Doc, is you are still here, I think it was you yesterday last evening posted that the current spend on the NHS was 6.2% of GDP. Is that right? If so, would please post a link to the figures?

The reason I ask is that proportion seems awfully close to what we had in the late nineties under Major and before Blair made his dramatic declaration on live TV. Of course in those days much of the Health Service was not bogged down in hugely expensive PFI contracts.

nunu said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

PlatoSaid said:

YouGov
Big business, banks and politicians are seen as the main beneficiaries from the EU https://t.co/e62YmAoonK https://t.co/mQGEKsUq8m

Double whammy for Osborne and JP Morgan then?

Triple whammy really since J P Morgan are both a bank and a big business.

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

She would be an excellent choice.

Far too good for the Tories.

But perhaps not too bad for the country? Silly tribalism there, Dr. Sox.

I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.

Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.

On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.

The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.

Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.

I think that Sarah Wollaston is too much of a lone wolf to become Leader.

williamglenn said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

It is beginning to look as if Boris/leave strategy was to offer no policies until purdah started but just do down remains arguments and make provocative statements that goad Cameron and remain.

Now purdah have started and remain no longer own the referee they are putting forward specific policies such as vat on fuel and Australian rules immigration having already drawn and rebuted remains fire on their strong points.

In other words they're dishonestly taking the opportunity to present a fictional general election manifesto knowing that it will not get proper scrutiny so they can promise whatever they like.

AlastairMeeks said:

So long as the next Conservative leader isn't Boris Johnson or George Osborne I'll be happy.

Michael Gove would be a nice bonus.

slade said:

I haven't seen this published here yet - a survey of Political Studies Association members has said that Remain will win comfortably. Among academics ( of which I was one) 87% thought they would win, among pollsters it was 92% and among journalists it was 97%!

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I'm surprised to see so many remainers here throwing in the towel already. Not as if the polls are showing Brexit 20 points clear

HurstLlama said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

foxinsoxuk said:

She would be an excellent choice.

Far too good for the Tories.

But perhaps not too bad for the country? Silly tribalism there, Dr. Sox.

I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.

Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.

On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.

The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.

Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.

I think that Sarah Wollaston is too much of a lone wolf to become Leader.

Thats why I asked about backers. She needs her own Keith Joseph et al if she is going to run for it. Which I suppose begs the question does she want the wretched job?

Casino_Royale said:

slade said:

I haven't seen this published here yet - a survey of Political Studies Association members has said that Remain will win comfortably. Among academics ( of which I was one) 87% thought they would win, among pollsters it was 92% and among journalists it was 97%!

Lol!