Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
Cameron clearly could not see that immigration would be the defining issue of the campaign. That makes him a complete fool. I am very happy with my 4-1 on Leave to win, and my 7-1 for them to win on a turnout of less than 65% (with an 8-1 saver for them to win on a turnout of over 65%).
He probably could see it but it's one thing to predict and another to counter it. How would you counter it?
With where we are now, it can't be countered. That's why Leave is likely to win. Someone thinking strategically, though, would not have played a pivotal role in helping to build the anti-immigrant narrative in the first place - especially while knowing that the government needed large scale immigration to have a chance of hitting its fiscal and economic targets.
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
Cameron clearly could not see that immigration would be the defining issue of the campaign. That makes him a complete fool. I am very happy with my 4-1 on Leave to win, and my 7-1 for them to win on a turnout of less than 65% (with an 8-1 saver for them to win on a turnout of over 65%).
He probably could see it but it's one thing to predict and another to counter it. How would you counter it?
With where we are now, it can't be countered. That's why Leave is likely to win. Someone thinking strategically, though, would not have played a pivotal role in helping to build the anti-immigrant narrative in the first place - especially while knowing that the government needed large scale immigration to have a chance of hitting its fiscal and economic targets.
I just don't buy this line SO. I've not heard much anti immigrant narrative from DC. Always seems to be behind the curve, commenting on popular perceptions.
Our local Polish shop opened in the early 00s, under Blair. EU migration has been strong since then...
Last night I posted here that Corbyn's speech yesterday was his best yet- with his critique of Osborne's economic claims of a Brexit . But after thinking about it, Corbyn is such an idiot, a stupid man. He used his opportunity to make a case for the Euro to instead make cheap, crowd pleasing shots at Osborne. With such a tight vote looming this shows such lack of judgement, and lack of intelligence.
Exactly. That is precisely right. The self-serving idiot seems to forget we are all supposed to be on the same side. Once a eurosceptic...
As I said yesterday, knowing Corbyn is for Leave confirms to me that I am right to support Remain.
But Gerry Adams is for REMAIN. So is Tony Blair...
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
Cameron clearly could not see that immigration would be the defining issue of the campaign. That makes him a complete fool. I am very happy with my 4-1 on Leave to win, and my 7-1 for them to win on a turnout of less than 65% (with an 8-1 saver for them to win on a turnout of over 65%).
Could it be that because Cameron had no strong challenges on his immigration failure, by the 3 biggest UK opposition parties (at HoC) during GE2015 that Cameron felt that his immigration pledge did not matter to voters very much? Now that there is an opposition (LEAVE) challenging him on it, it is all going a bit LibDemTuitionFeePledgy for him?
Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.
The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.
The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.
Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
The new heroine , Soraya, of Kurdish descent, it seems, is herself being disingenuous. She assumes Turkey will be in the EU and no country can stop them.
Last night I posted here that Corbyn's speech yesterday was his best yet- with his critique of Osborne's economic claims of a Brexit . But after thinking about it, Corbyn is such an idiot, a stupid man. He used his opportunity to make a case for the Euro to instead make cheap, crowd pleasing shots at Osborne. With such a tight vote looming this shows such lack of judgement, and lack of intelligence.
Exactly. That is precisely right. The self-serving idiot seems to forget we are all supposed to be on the same side. Once a eurosceptic...
As I said yesterday, knowing Corbyn is for Leave confirms to me that I am right to support Remain.
But Gerry Adams is for REMAIN. So is Tony Blair...
You are absolutely right. The fact that Corbyn is Labour leader allows the Tory to behave as they please knowing there will not be any electoral consequences.
Corbyn is a free pass for the Tories to indulge in the most terrible civil war about their favourite subject
Last night I posted here that Corbyn's speech yesterday was his best yet- with his critique of Osborne's economic claims of a Brexit . But after thinking about it, Corbyn is such an idiot, a stupid man. He used his opportunity to make a case for the Euro to instead make cheap, crowd pleasing shots at Osborne. With such a tight vote looming this shows such lack of judgement, and lack of intelligence.
I thought his speech wasn't at all helpful for Remain but that's the least of the damage he's doing.
The Tories would have hoofed out the loonies weeks ago if they'd had a viable opposition.
I heard IDS call Cameron a liar this morning. With unelectable Corbyn in charge why not?
......And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
Others have said this and you are welcome to add your view to those requests.
Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.
The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.
The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.
Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
Andrew Neil said Cameron was polished and assured.
Brexit supporter Iain Martin said Cameron did well.
So when you say no-one, you were like my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
As for Punters, currently they think the chance of Brexit is 28%
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
Polls last year showed Remain with c.30% leads on a renegotiated deal
Both the UK Government and the EU have seriously fucked this up.
That is my reading of it too, Mr Royale.
Maybe Cameron thought he could just walk over and convince the electorate with his wretched "deal" which isn't even guaranteed to be accepted by the EU if we vote to remain in. If so I fear he misread the mood of a big chunk of the the electorate. Then finding his plan had gone awry he doubled down on his trust factor (well he was more popular than his party,wasn't he - of course people would believe him) but people didn't. Keep going, push the same message but harder. Go on TV say the same and people laughed at him.
Well, he might yet get the result he wants but he has certainly destroyed his credibility and probably that of his party. Still none of that will affect him. As Mr. Observer noted earlier, Cameron can retire to his millions and no doubt some fat earning opportunities to keep the trust funds topped up and the consequences of his actions will fall on other, much less broad, shoulders.
Corbybn is so thick that he doesn't realise that if Brexit wins he is done for too- the Tory leadership will change quickly and put him to the sword in September.
Last night I posted here that Corbyn's speech yesterday was his best yet- with his critique of Osborne's economic claims of a Brexit . But after thinking about it, Corbyn is such an idiot, a stupid man. He used his opportunity to make a case for the Euro to instead make cheap, crowd pleasing shots at Osborne. With such a tight vote looming this shows such lack of judgement, and lack of intelligence.
lol. A classically silly tyson post. Bravo.
FWIW some people think Corbyn did this deliberately: that he wants LEAVE to win, partly because he is sincerely eurosceptic, and partly because he thinks - rightly - that this will consume the Tory party more than REMAIN.
I dunno. It seems a bit too Machiavellian and clever for Corbyn. If this was McDonnell, yes.
Too clever by half for Corbyn, you are quite right.
Wishful thinking. Cameron has already put him to the sword. Sadly, he is still there!
Think if it's Brexit labour will finish him off
I wouldn't be so sure. However the europhile unions might finish him. That is a serious possibility I suppose.
Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.
The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.
The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.
Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
The new heroine , Soraya, of Kurdish descent, it seems, is herself being disingenuous. She assumes Turkey will be in the EU and no country can stop them.
28 vetoes are available !
Yet still our government supports the application.
@AlbertoNardelli: The @ElectoralCommUK says it's so far aware of 3,462 EU nationals that have received poll cards and, in some cases, postal votes by mistake
On topic - there is only one Conservative (any party?) politician who seems to have come out of the Referendum with their reputation enhanced. A principled stand for Leaving the EU, but not prepared to deliver leaflets with "dodgy statistics about the NHS". Somebody who has been a fully paid up member of the awkward squad during the Cameron-Osborne years. But someone who could unite the party post referendum.
Someone who would strike fear into Labour and LibDems strategists. Someone who took on a constituency-wide open primary - and won the chance to fight against the LibDems in a marginal seat. And has now crushed them into fifth place, hoovering up their vote to get a majority of nearly 18,400 last year.
Somebody who was not a career politician, but had years of real world experience. Somebody who came late to politics and claimed their qualifications were "only real life experience, approachability and enthusiasm". Oh that there were 400 more of them in Westminster.
Somebody who may not have Cabinet experience, but does chair the Parliamentary Health Select Committee. They could kill off Labour hopes of making the NHS their own again.
Somebody who would have a head start with women voters.
I give you Dr Sarah Wollaston. Great value at 66-1...
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
Polls last year showed Remain with c.30% leads on a renegotiated deal
Both the UK Government and the EU have seriously fucked this up.
That is my reading of it too, Mr Royale.
Maybe Cameron thought he could just walk over and convince the electorate with his wretched "deal" which isn't even guaranteed to be accepted by the EU if we vote to remain in. If so I fear he misread the mood of a big chunk of the the electorate. Then finding his plan had gone awry he doubled down on his trust factor (well he was more popular than his party,wasn't he - of course people would believe him) but people didn't. Keep going, push the same message but harder. Go on TV say the same and people laughed at him.
Well, he might yet get the result he wants but he has certainly destroyed his credibility and probably that of his party. Still none of that will affect him. As Mr. Observer noted earlier, Cameron can retire to his millions and no doubt some fat earning opportunities to keep the trust funds topped up and the consequences of his actions will fall on other, much less broad, shoulders.
Sometimes, I think Henry VIII had a point.
The most telling part for me last night was when Cameron all but admitted to establishment capture by the EU.
Tells you a lot of what you need to know about the man.
Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.
The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.
The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.
Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
The new heroine , Soraya, of Kurdish descent, it seems, is herself being disingenuous. She assumes Turkey will be in the EU and no country can stop them.
28 vetoes are available !
Yet still our government supports the application.
Why is that, do you think?
It's good policy to hold out at least the prospect of acceptance to Turkey. Why would you not do that?
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
we do know that Cameron et al expected the deal to be received much better than it was, to only have 70-80 BOO'er MPs to deal with and no big beasts, for Project Fear to work more effectively than it has, so far, and to win very clearly by 60%+ and thus close the issue down for a generation and rope the Right in, for good.
We don't know any of those things.
They are what you might expect behind door number 2, but they are not indisputable facts
Oh yes we do. We know the deal was received awfully, that over 140 MPs have come out for Leave, including Gove and Boris, and that the polls are very close.
You are correct if you mean we don't yet know the result. None of us do.
Cameron doing this is much more effective than bellowing about war & pestilence.
Except he didn't bellow about war.
As someone who doesn't hate Cameron, I thought that exchange with Faisal last night was illuminating. I have been to the graveyards and seen the "serried ranks of tombstones" he referred to.
On topic - there is only one Conservative (any party?) politician who seems to have come out of the Referendum with their reputation enhanced. A principled stand for Leaving the EU, but not prepared to deliver leaflets with "dodgy statistics about the NHS". Somebody who has been a fully paid up member of the awkward squad during the Cameron-Osborne years. But someone who could unite the party post referendum.
Someone who would strike fear into Labour and LibDems strategists. Someone who took on a constituency-wide open primary - and won the chance to fight against the LibDems in a marginal seat. And has now crushed them into fifth place, hoovering up their vote to get a majority of nearly 18,400 last year.
Somebody who was not a career politician, but had years of real world experience. Somebody who came late to politics and claimed their qualifications were "only real life experience, approachability and enthusiasm". Oh that there were 400 more of them in Westminster.
Somebody who may not have Cabinet experience, but does chair the Parliamentary Health Select Committee. They could kill off Labour hopes of making the NHS their own again.
Somebody who would have a head start with women voters.
I give you Dr Sarah Wollaston. Great value at 66-1...
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.
The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.
The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.
Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
Andrew Neil said Cameron was polished and assured.
Brexit supporter Iain Martin said Cameron did well.
So when you say no-one, you were like my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
As for Punters, currently they think the chance of Brexit is 28%
TSE's devotional man-love for Dave is very touching.
Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.
The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.
The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.
Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
The new heroine , Soraya, of Kurdish descent, it seems, is herself being disingenuous. She assumes Turkey will be in the EU and no country can stop them.
28 vetoes are available !
Yet still our government supports the application.
Why is that, do you think?
It's good policy to hold out at least the prospect of acceptance to Turkey. Why would you not do that?
Err, because it has little or no foreign policy benefit and massive domestic implications.
Like, you know, the Leavers in a referendum being able to say 'you support Turkish accession too - thats another xmillion people legally entitled to come here'.
Oh, and finally, because the current Turkish leadership should be isolated and not encouraged.
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?
Gove will do fine. I doubt the audience will be as hostile as the one Cameron faced. It's not as if Remainers have the same passion for this as Leavers do.
I suspect he will get a lot of stuff about what happens after a Brexit vote and what guarantees he can give that everything will be OK.
The thing is Gove has principles and won't lie to win. I suspect he will be a disaster and predict a scenario such as:
Audience member: The £350mn a week we would get back is a lie that is not the net figure
Gove: Yes you're right the figure is about £125mn a week if we leave but it's still a lot.....
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?
Since most journalists are left of centre and therefore generally pro-remain, not surprised.
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?
I feel OK about them. Did any professionals criticise him?
Apart from the incoherent grammar of TSE's first paragraph two things stand out.
The first is that no-one out there thinks Cameron was confident and polished. He was floored by two people. One suggesting his personal reputation has been ruined. The other by a student telling him he's waffling. Nothing else about last night matters.
The second is this. Tory leaders take time to reach party consciousness let alone that of the public. If you had polled the general public 12 months before Cameron became leader he'd have polled 10000x less than Michael Gove now. No-one outside Westminster had heard of Cameron. Yes, Michael Gove was unpopular as Education Secretary, but since then his stock has been gradually rising. It remains to be seen whether he could become a popular leader if the situation arises. It's far too soon to be writing him, or any others off.
Now can we get back to the EU referendum. And for goodness sake swallow your egos and put some flipping balance into the thread headers. The country is balanced on this. Pb.com drags itself down by constantly cheerleading for Remain, especially when many of your punters seem to hold a contrary view.
The new heroine , Soraya, of Kurdish descent, it seems, is herself being disingenuous. She assumes Turkey will be in the EU and no country can stop them.
28 vetoes are available !
Yet still our government supports the application.
Why is that, do you think?
It's good policy to hold out at least the prospect of acceptance to Turkey. Why would you not do that?
Because you are clearly leading them on. Say one thing to one audience and then do the opposite. People fall out when treated like that.
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?
I think Isabel Oakeshott made a good comment last night "David Cameron is a very good salesman but it doesn't change the fact that what he is selling is a rotten apple"
Gove will do fine. I doubt the audience will be as hostile as the one Cameron faced. It's not as if Remainers have the same passion for this as Leavers do.
I suspect he will get a lot of stuff about what happens after a Brexit vote and what guarantees he can give that everything will be OK.
The thing is Gove has principles and won't lie to win. I suspect he will be a disaster and predict a scenario such as:
Audience member: The £350mn a week we would get back is a lie that is not the net figure
Gove: Yes you're right the figure is about £125mn a week if we leave but it's still a lot.....
and in one go he has destroyed Leave.
If that happens then the only conclusion could be that Gove was a plant, doing Dave a favour all along.
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
Cameron clearly could not see that immigration would be the defining issue of the campaign. That makes him a complete fool. I am very happy with my 4-1 on Leave to win, and my 7-1 for them to win on a turnout of less than 65% (with an 8-1 saver for them to win on a turnout of over 65%).
He probably could see it but it's one thing to predict and another to counter it. How would you counter it?
With where we are now, it can't be countered. That's why Leave is likely to win. Someone thinking strategically, though, would not have played a pivotal role in helping to build the anti-immigrant narrative in the first place - especially while knowing that the government needed large scale immigration to have a chance of hitting its fiscal and economic targets.
Anonymous sources from the civil service have been quoted by various hacks as saying that Cameron's idea of strategy is just to get through to Monday.
Not really Dr Fox. She couldn't hack medicine, and trades on her professional background which she escaped from all too readily.
I would like to see a medic maintain their professional trade whilst still being an MP- after all there are many other MP's who are more than happy spending their time on boards and whatnot.
On topic - there is only one Conservative (any party?) politician who seems to have come out of the Referendum with their reputation enhanced. A principled stand for Leaving the EU, but not prepared to deliver leaflets with "dodgy statistics about the NHS". Somebody who has been a fully paid up member of the awkward squad during the Cameron-Osborne years. But someone who could unite the party post referendum.
Someone who would strike fear into Labour and LibDems strategists. Someone who took on a constituency-wide open primary - and won the chance to fight against the LibDems in a marginal seat. And has now crushed them into fifth place, hoovering up their vote to get a majority of nearly 18,400 last year.
Somebody who was not a career politician, but had years of real world experience. Somebody who came late to politics and claimed their qualifications were "only real life experience, approachability and enthusiasm". Oh that there were 400 more of them in Westminster.
Somebody who may not have Cabinet experience, but does chair the Parliamentary Health Select Committee. They could kill off Labour hopes of making the NHS their own again.
Somebody who would have a head start with women voters.
I give you Dr Sarah Wollaston. Great value at 66-1...
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?
I think Isabel Oakeshott made a good comment last night "David Cameron is a very good salesman but it doesn't change the fact that what he is selling is a rotten apple"
The merits of the case are, of course, a matter of opinion. But the point under discussion was Dave's performance. I think we can all now agree the following: Dave was great.
Wollaston definitely has a potential appeal to the wider electorate but other than being a leaver, what would her pitch to Tory members be? If the party united behind and if she rose to the challenge of PM I think she could well massacre Corbyn at a general election.
It is stating the bleeding obvious that Cameron is transactional. But he is a good performer, he is quite charming, likeable, he appeals to women and men, he scrubs up well in a suit, and he is the best the Tories have by a long chalk.
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
Cameron clearly could not see that immigration would be the defining issue of the campaign. That makes him a complete fool. I am very happy with my 4-1 on Leave to win, and my 7-1 for them to win on a turnout of less than 65% (with an 8-1 saver for them to win on a turnout of over 65%).
He probably could see it but it's one thing to predict and another to counter it. How would you counter it?
With where we are now, it can't be countered. That's why Leave is likely to win. Someone thinking strategically, though, would not have played a pivotal role in helping to build the anti-immigrant narrative in the first place - especially while knowing that the government needed large scale immigration to have a chance of hitting its fiscal and economic targets.
Anonymous sources from the civil service have been quoted by various hacks as saying that Cameron's idea of strategy is just to get through to Monday.
TSE says Cameron was confident and polished, I didn't see it but that's good enough for me, TSE is very unbiased and objective when talking about Dave.
How do you feel about the remarks by the professionals about how well he did?
I think Isabel Oakeshott made a good comment last night "David Cameron is a very good salesman but it doesn't change the fact that what he is selling is a rotten apple"
The merits of the case are, of course, a matter of opinion. But the point under discussion was Dave's performance. I think we can all now agree the following: Dave was great.
That is not the perception being pushed across most media. It may be unfair but that is not something you can kill off by stating otherwise.
Wollaston definitely has a potential appeal to the wider electorate but other than being a leaver, what would her pitch to Tory members be? If the party united behind and if she rose to the challenge of PM I think she could well massacre Corbyn at a general election.
If she pledged the money from our Euro-subs to the NHS then it might actually happen.
Though these sums do seem to have a strong whiff of loaves and fishes about them. They can pay for everything.
I'm sure that Michael Gove will do fine tonight. He has a very reasonable manner.
Gove's silver tongue could charm the birds from the trees. " Sentences poured forth in mellifluous constructions complicated enough to test the listener’s intelligence and simultaneously leave him transfixed by the speaker's virtuosity. "
I'm sure that Michael Gove will do fine tonight. He has a very reasonable manner.
Yes, I once saw a TV debate between Gove and Polly Toynbee early on in his parliamentary career. Two points: Gove totally destroyed Toynbee on her own subject of expertise (poverty and welfare); Toynbee seemed disarmed by Gove's urbanity and intellectualism, obviously having believed up to that point that all Tories were rotters.
Leaving aside his assessment of Corbyn's ability, there's a very significant betting angle in what he says:
Corbyn is absolutely full of himself. He thinks he’s fantastic and forgets any notion that he is reluctant to be in the public eye. Corbyn is clearly loving the attention after years of being ignored and derided. Meeting the people keeps him “humble”, he says at one point. It is the most revealing moment in this gripping film. The thing about the humble is that they never need to point out that they are humble. It is part of the job description of the humble that they don’t say “look at me being humble”. Yet he signs his autograph with what looks like a gold pen and even says he is going to sign his crop of apples. He’s in love with it all and goes around the country meeting only the tiny, deluded minority that thinks he will ever be Prime Minister. It is pathetic to watch.
If Iain Martin is half-way right about that, Corbyn is not going to stand down. And if Corbyn doesn't want to stand down, it's going to be jolly hard, probably impossible, for the saner elements within Labour get rid of him.
Leaving aside his assessment of Corbyn's ability, there's a very significant betting angle in what he says:
Corbyn is absolutely full of himself. He thinks he’s fantastic and forgets any notion that he is reluctant to be in the public eye. Corbyn is clearly loving the attention after years of being ignored and derided. Meeting the people keeps him “humble”, he says at one point. It is the most revealing moment in this gripping film. The thing about the humble is that they never need to point out that they are humble. It is part of the job description of the humble that they don’t say “look at me being humble”. Yet he signs his autograph with what looks like a gold pen and even says he is going to sign his crop of apples. He’s in love with it all and goes around the country meeting only the tiny, deluded minority that thinks he will ever be Prime Minister. It is pathetic to watch.
If Iain Martin is half-way right about that, Corbyn is not going to stand down. And if he doesn't want to stand down, it's going to be jolly hard, probably impossible, for the saner elements within Labour get rid of him.
Corbyn was elected fair and square - I paid £3 for the privilege
Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.
What about a Tory leadership election between two women candidates? It would surely drive plenty in Labour mad. Leadsom was mentioned in an earlier thread too.
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
The first and third were known unknowns (people were crossing the Mediterranean in 2014, and Boris' ambition is no secret). They could have been planned for.
The second was an unknown unknown.
Over and above that, Cameron tried to oversell a bad deal, and President Obama's intervention was a mis-step. Indeed, all foreign interventions have been counter-productive.
Broadly, I think the BES is in the right ballpark. They've gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 now.
But perhaps not too bad for the country? Silly tribalism there, Dr. Sox.
I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.
Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.
On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.
The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.
Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.
Let us not forget that Tory leaders tend to EMERGE. Heath, Thatcher, Major, Hague, IDS, Cameron. I know Major was Chancellor but 18 months previously he was chief secretary.
The one exception was Michael Howard who was an almost intentional stop gap.
Nobody on LEAVE is complacent. REMAIN is still odds on favourite if for no other reason than REMAIN has all the levers of state at their disposal.
It does now appear that we've got a genuine contest (which I think Cameron realized for the first time last night) but REMAIN very much favourites of course.
I'd still make Remain 2/1 favourites, but certainly, Cameron would have expected a far easier contest.
I think he'd have expected an easier contest when he first promised the referendum but since then:
the refugee crisis has exploded Labour has elected a joke leader who can't (or won't) hold up his end of the plank Boris has come out for Leave
which make it a lot harder.
I would say Leave should be no longer than 13/8 now. (I've been pondering this as I saw Mike's tweet that he had closed down his Leave punt last night. He' s probably right but it's too soon for me.)
The first and third were known unknowns (people were crossing the Mediterranean in 2014, and Boris' ambition is no secret). They could have been planned for.
The second was an unknown unknown.
Good to see the famous Donny Rumsfield is on the board this afternoon. Can I claim £5?
It is beginning to look as if Boris/leave strategy was to offer no policies until purdah started but just do down remains arguments and make provocative statements that goad Cameron and remain.
Now purdah have started and remain no longer own the referee they are putting forward specific policies such as vat on fuel and Australian rules immigration having already drawn and rebuted remains fire on their strong points.
Remain are now, hilariously, bleating that cabinet ministers such as Gove are breaking purdah rules by proposing specific policies.
Doc, is you are still here, I think it was you yesterday last evening posted that the current spend on the NHS was 6.2% of GDP. Is that right? If so, would please post a link to the figures?
The reason I ask is that proportion seems awfully close to what we had in the late nineties under Major and before Blair made his dramatic declaration on live TV. Of course in those days much of the Health Service was not bogged down in hugely expensive PFI contracts.
It is beginning to look as if Boris/leave strategy was to offer no policies until purdah started but just do down remains arguments and make provocative statements that goad Cameron and remain.
Now purdah have started and remain no longer own the referee they are putting forward specific policies such as vat on fuel and Australian rules immigration having already drawn and rebuted remains fire on their strong points.
Remain are now, hilariously, bleating that cabinet ministers such as Gove are breaking purdah rules by proposing specific policies.
"Craig Oliver has been heard privately complaining that Leave ministers talking about policy are breaching purdah rules – a bizarre argument since they are not proposing policies for this government."
Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.
What about a Tory leadership election between two women candidates? It would surely drive plenty in Labour mad. Leadsom was mentioned in an earlier thread too.
But perhaps not too bad for the country? Silly tribalism there, Dr. Sox.
I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.
Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.
On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.
The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.
Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.
I think that Sarah Wollaston is too much of a lone wolf to become Leader.
Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.
What about a Tory leadership election between two women candidates? It would surely drive plenty in Labour mad. Leadsom was mentioned in an earlier thread too.
I think there are some seriously impressive Tory women on the benches.
Gove will do fine. I doubt the audience will be as hostile as the one Cameron faced. It's not as if Remainers have the same passion for this as Leavers do.
I suspect he will get a lot of stuff about what happens after a Brexit vote and what guarantees he can give that everything will be OK.
The thing is Gove has principles and won't lie to win. I suspect he will be a disaster and predict a scenario such as:
Audience member: The £350mn a week we would get back is a lie that is not the net figure
Gove: Yes you're right the figure is about £125mn a week if we leave but it's still a lot.....
and in one go he has destroyed Leave.
If that happens then the only conclusion could be that Gove was a plant, doing Dave a favour all along.
Doc, is you are still here, I think it was you yesterday last evening posted that the current spend on the NHS was 6.2% of GDP. Is that right? If so, would please post a link to the figures?
The reason I ask is that proportion seems awfully close to what we had in the late nineties under Major and before Blair made his dramatic declaration on live TV. Of course in those days much of the Health Service was not bogged down in hugely expensive PFI contracts.
Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.
I'm sorry but the idea of a reformable E.U has been totally destroyed, no one the Tory party seriously belives it can be refromed (atleast not the grassroots).
It is beginning to look as if Boris/leave strategy was to offer no policies until purdah started but just do down remains arguments and make provocative statements that goad Cameron and remain.
Now purdah have started and remain no longer own the referee they are putting forward specific policies such as vat on fuel and Australian rules immigration having already drawn and rebuted remains fire on their strong points.
In other words they're dishonestly taking the opportunity to present a fictional general election manifesto knowing that it will not get proper scrutiny so they can promise whatever they like.
But perhaps not too bad for the country? Silly tribalism there, Dr. Sox.
I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.
Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.
On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.
The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.
Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.
I think that Sarah Wollaston is too much of a lone wolf to become Leader.
Thats why I asked about backers. She needs her own Keith Joseph et al if she is going to run for it. Which I suppose begs the question does she want the wretched job?
Theresa May will be a strong candidate. She has Eurosceptic instincts but would fight for reform. She has avoided throwing mud.
I'm sorry but the idea of a reformable E.U has been totally destroyed, no one the Tory party seriously belives it can be refromed (atleast not the grassroots).
The problem seems to be that too many had the deluded idea that reform meant something akin to reconstituting from the ground up to become something completely different. That idea was always false.
It is beginning to look as if Boris/leave strategy was to offer no policies until purdah started but just do down remains arguments and make provocative statements that goad Cameron and remain.
Now purdah have started and remain no longer own the referee they are putting forward specific policies such as vat on fuel and Australian rules immigration having already drawn and rebuted remains fire on their strong points.
In other words they're dishonestly taking the opportunity to present a fictional general election manifesto knowing that it will not get proper scrutiny so they can promise whatever they like.
As they should! Because without the EU we can promise whatever we like.
Gove may or may not zero-rate VAT on fuel but in a 2020 General Election a party can promise and properly scrutinise such a proposal.
This is the ideal "have cake and eat it" scenario for Vote Leave. In 2020 we could have a "have cake" party, we could also have an "eat cake" party. This is a referendum for future decades not just the next six months so there is no requirement for all these to be done within one Parliament. Just we have the possibility to do them.
I haven't seen this published here yet - a survey of Political Studies Association members has said that Remain will win comfortably. Among academics ( of which I was one) 87% thought they would win, among pollsters it was 92% and among journalists it was 97%!
So long as the next Conservative leader isn't Boris Johnson or George Osborne I'll be happy.
Michael Gove would be a nice bonus.
EU ref needs to be a narrow Remain then, allowing Hammond or May to come through, if Leave win it will be Boris with Gove Chancellor, if Remain win big it will be Osborne
I haven't seen this published here yet - a survey of Political Studies Association members has said that Remain will win comfortably. Among academics ( of which I was one) 87% thought they would win, among pollsters it was 92% and among journalists it was 97%!
I'm sure that Michael Gove will do fine tonight. He has a very reasonable manner.
Yes, I once saw a TV debate between Gove and Polly Toynbee early on in his parliamentary career. Two points: Gove totally destroyed Toynbee on her own subject of expertise (poverty and welfare); Toynbee seemed disarmed by Gove's urbanity and intellectualism, obviously having believed up to that point that all Tories were rotters.
Val Policella has a subject of expertise?
The Second Coming of the Great Green Arkleseizure is more likely.
But perhaps not too bad for the country? Silly tribalism there, Dr. Sox.
I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.
Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.
On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.
The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.
Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.
I think that Sarah Wollaston is too much of a lone wolf to become Leader.
Thats why I asked about backers. She needs her own Keith Joseph et al if she is going to run for it. Which I suppose begs the question does she want the wretched job?
I've got that image in my mind of Bercow being dragged to the speaker's chair. Perhaps they could organise something similar for whoever has to take over the Conservative party.
I haven't seen this published here yet - a survey of Political Studies Association members has said that Remain will win comfortably. Among academics ( of which I was one) 87% thought they would win, among pollsters it was 92% and among journalists it was 97%!
Not sure that says that Remain will win comfortably. 90% could have thought remain would win with 51%, for instance.
I haven't seen this published here yet - a survey of Political Studies Association members has said that Remain will win comfortably. Among academics ( of which I was one) 87% thought they would win, among pollsters it was 92% and among journalists it was 97%!
Lol!
This is the group-think madness that is feeding into Remain complacency imho.
Doc, is you are still here, I think it was you yesterday last evening posted that the current spend on the NHS was 6.2% of GDP. Is that right? If so, would please post a link to the figures?
The reason I ask is that proportion seems awfully close to what we had in the late nineties under Major and before Blair made his dramatic declaration on live TV. Of course in those days much of the Health Service was not bogged down in hugely expensive PFI contracts.
Thanks, Doc. It looks to me looks like we are back to where we were in 1997 in terms of health spend. Except we now have all those lovely PFI contracts top-slicing it and having lots more new expensive treatments to fund, an older population requiring even more care and no plan for how to manage any of it.
Comments
Our local Polish shop opened in the early 00s, under Blair. EU migration has been strong since then...
28 vetoes are available !
@paulwaugh: Cameron has spent 11 years doing these CameronDirect events. And every minute of that experience shows. Unflappable is the word #InOrOut
@PCollinsTimes: What happened to Blair is happening to Cameron. Just as you get really good at the job, well-informed and fluent, you leave.
@PCollinsTimes: When I said Cameron was good at the job I meant he was impressive on Sky. Not that I am in love with him.
Brexit supporter Iain Martin said Cameron did well.
So when you say no-one, you were like my boxer shorts, full of bollocks.
As for Punters, currently they think the chance of Brexit is 28%
Maybe Cameron thought he could just walk over and convince the electorate with his wretched "deal" which isn't even guaranteed to be accepted by the EU if we vote to remain in. If so I fear he misread the mood of a big chunk of the the electorate. Then finding his plan had gone awry he doubled down on his trust factor (well he was more popular than his party,wasn't he - of course people would believe him) but people didn't. Keep going, push the same message but harder. Go on TV say the same and people laughed at him.
Well, he might yet get the result he wants but he has certainly destroyed his credibility and probably that of his party. Still none of that will affect him. As Mr. Observer noted earlier, Cameron can retire to his millions and no doubt some fat earning opportunities to keep the trust funds topped up and the consequences of his actions will fall on other, much less broad, shoulders.
Sometimes, I think Henry VIII had a point.
Why is that, do you think?
Cameron doing this is much more effective than bellowing about war & pestilence.
Tells you a lot of what you need to know about the man.
You are correct if you mean we don't yet know the result. None of us do.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-referendums/electoral-commission-update-on-non-eligible-eu-citizen-voters
As someone who doesn't hate Cameron, I thought that exchange with Faisal last night was illuminating. I have been to the graveyards and seen the "serried ranks of tombstones" he referred to.
It would be surprising if Faisal has not.
*face-palm*
Far too good for the Tories.
Has Dave seen your boxers, BTW?
Like, you know, the Leavers in a referendum being able to say 'you support Turkish accession too - thats another xmillion people legally entitled to come here'.
Oh, and finally, because the current Turkish leadership should be isolated and not encouraged.
I suspect he will be a disaster and predict a scenario such as:
Audience member: The £350mn a week we would get back is a lie that is not the net figure
Gove: Yes you're right the figure is about £125mn a week if we leave but it's still a lot.....
and in one go he has destroyed Leave.
Phil Collins,
wrote speeches for Tony Blairworks for Murdoch, obviously a ToryI would like to see a medic maintain their professional trade whilst still being an MP- after all there are many other MP's who are more than happy spending their time on boards and whatnot.
Which is admirable, and only slightly hypocritical
Big business, banks and politicians are seen as the main beneficiaries from the EU https://t.co/e62YmAoonK https://t.co/mQGEKsUq8m
Sounds perfect for presenting The One Show
Though these sums do seem to have a strong whiff of loaves and fishes about them. They can pay for everything.
" Sentences poured forth in mellifluous constructions complicated enough to test the listener’s intelligence and simultaneously leave him transfixed by the speaker's virtuosity. "
http://capx.co/corbyn-is-getting-worse-the-man-is-a-total-twit/
Leaving aside his assessment of Corbyn's ability, there's a very significant betting angle in what he says:
Corbyn is absolutely full of himself. He thinks he’s fantastic and forgets any notion that he is reluctant to be in the public eye. Corbyn is clearly loving the attention after years of being ignored and derided. Meeting the people keeps him “humble”, he says at one point. It is the most revealing moment in this gripping film. The thing about the humble is that they never need to point out that they are humble. It is part of the job description of the humble that they don’t say “look at me being humble”. Yet he signs his autograph with what looks like a gold pen and even says he is going to sign his crop of apples. He’s in love with it all and goes around the country meeting only the tiny, deluded minority that thinks he will ever be Prime Minister. It is pathetic to watch.
If Iain Martin is half-way right about that, Corbyn is not going to stand down. And if Corbyn doesn't want to stand down, it's going to be jolly hard, probably impossible, for the saner elements within Labour get rid of him.
The second was an unknown unknown.
Over and above that, Cameron tried to oversell a bad deal, and President Obama's intervention was a mis-step. Indeed, all foreign interventions have been counter-productive.
Broadly, I think the BES is in the right ballpark. They've gone from 47/30 Remain a year ago to 43/40 now.
I have been looking for the right lady candidate for some time. I thought it might be Liz Truss, but she has bombed in office and is now I think out of the running. Priti Patel, I think, might do and she might go over better with the general public than she does with fellow Conservative MPs (or the Denizens of this site). I am sure she has a way to go in her career and will one day hit one of the big jobs, but perhaps not PM. But Wollaston, could be the person I have been looking for.
Ok, she does not have ministerial experience, but nor did Cameron before he became PM so that is a risk factor not a bar. She is obviously very bright, from a services family, state school educated, and a physician (so can cope with detail and hard work). Furthermore she is in her mid-fifties so she has probably been around the block a few times and experienced lifes pains as well as its pleasures.
On the face of it, that looks like a pretty good starting place. The question for me is can she lead? Can she actually motivate and inspire people and get them to do what she wants rather than what their own interests tell them to do? Attlee could, Cameron cannot, Wollaston we don't know.
The other question, and possibly the key one, is does she have any backers. Margaret Thatcher didn't get the conservative leadership on her own. She had outriders torch bearers, chaps who mentioned things to other chaps. All part of this leadership thing.
Woolaston at 66/1? Yes I have some of that, but not too much.
The one exception was Michael Howard who was an almost intentional stop gap.
Can I claim £5?
Now purdah have started and remain no longer own the referee they are putting forward specific policies such as vat on fuel and Australian rules immigration having already drawn and rebuted remains fire on their strong points.
Remain are now, hilariously, bleating that cabinet ministers such as Gove are breaking purdah rules by proposing specific policies.
http://order-order.com/2016/06/03/downing-street-scream-blue-purdah/
Doc, is you are still here, I think it was you yesterday last evening posted that the current spend on the NHS was 6.2% of GDP. Is that right? If so, would please post a link to the figures?
The reason I ask is that proportion seems awfully close to what we had in the late nineties under Major and before Blair made his dramatic declaration on live TV. Of course in those days much of the Health Service was not bogged down in hugely expensive PFI contracts.
Surely they are, if Leave wins?
Far more so than the men.
Michael Gove would be a nice bonus.
I think a little over 1% of GDP non-NHS too.
Gove may or may not zero-rate VAT on fuel but in a 2020 General Election a party can promise and properly scrutinise such a proposal.
This is the ideal "have cake and eat it" scenario for Vote Leave. In 2020 we could have a "have cake" party, we could also have an "eat cake" party. This is a referendum for future decades not just the next six months so there is no requirement for all these to be done within one Parliament. Just we have the possibility to do them.
The Second Coming of the Great Green Arkleseizure is more likely.
What a freakin mess.