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  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,729
    edited May 2016

    Curtice still getting in terrible night for Tories...

    Having just watched him he didn't say that at all. You really do post some obsessive rubbish about the BBC.
    It was a joke...a long standing one on pb.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Net changes in councillors

    Lab +2 Con 0 LD 0 UKIP +3 Grn 0
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609

    Curtice still getting in terrible night for Tories...

    Having just watched him he didn't say that at all. You really do post some obsessive rubbish about the BBC.
    To be fair, he didn't say the Tories were having a spectacular night. That's bad enough ;)
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges · 7m7 minutes ago

    Labour sources saying pattern emerging of fall in turnout in key Labour areas, but increase in key Tory areas.


    zac o'clock

    I just refuse to believe he has a chance...
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Yep - overall Curtice conclusion (to the extent there was one) was bad night for Labour.

    ie Lab 7% down on what Ed Miliband did and he went on to lose a GE.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited May 2016
    BBC banner - "Lib Dems retain overall control of Orkney Islands"

    Did the LDs just win a directly elected dictator election?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    RobD said:

    BBC banner - "Lib Dems retain overall control of Orkney Islands"

    Did the LDs just win a directly elected dictator election?

    LOL
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,729
    RobD said:

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges · 7m7 minutes ago

    Labour sources saying pattern emerging of fall in turnout in key Labour areas, but increase in key Tory areas.


    zac o'clock

    I just refuse to believe he has a chance...
    I wonder where & why all this zac ramping is coming from.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: Edinburgh Southern will go to Labour, according to a source.

    Ruth short in Central apparently
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited May 2016
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
    Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
    Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.

    He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
    As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.
    No, that is practical reality. The hard left do not have a majority of MPs, so MPs can oust the Labour leader if he fails to perform and failing to win a general election would give them the mandate to do so and they would do just that
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Conservatives hold Edgbaston by 78 votes.

    There has been a swing to Labour in the few Birmingham seats we've had so far.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Labour on course to take Stockport Council
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Tory gains in Trafford mooted.
  • Apparently Trump has come out in favour of Brexit.

    I wonder if this is the first payback for Cameron. Perhaps Trump will start calling him lyiin' Dave.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
    Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
    Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.

    He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
    As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.
    No, that is practical reality. The left do not have a majority of MPs, so MPs can oust the Labour leader if he fails to perform and failing to win a general election would give them the mandate to do so and they would do just that
    Only for the die hard membership to elect another hard lefter.
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    I love election nights!
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DanSandersonHT: Labour source on Labour Fife candidate Thomas Docherty: "He's a f*cking w*nker. Nobody in the party likes him."
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609

    I love election nights!

    There's nothing not to love (apart from cowboys and maybe cruise ships!)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @davieclegg: Lib Dems think Willie Rennie may have the beating of the SNP in North East Fife. Would be extraordinary if true.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Mortimer said:

    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....

    UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @DanSandersonHT: Labour source on Labour Fife candidate Thomas Docherty: "He's a f*cking w*nker. Nobody in the party likes him."

    What's he supposed to have done?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    John McDonnell scares me rigid. His ability to peddle hard left (and frankly farcical) leadership lines in such a believable and, dare I say it, empathic way is far, far better than Corbyn.

    Which is why I think it will be McDonnell, not Corbyn, who leads Labour in 2020
    Blairites won't stand for that.

    Would trigger SDP Mk II.

    Only reason that Corbyn is still in place is because of his incompetence.
    Where is the SDP Mk II going to win under FPTP, Blairites will not even be able to do a deal with Farron's LDs. They will have to grit their teeth and wait for Chuka in 2020
    SDP Mk II would have more hope against a divided Tory party.

    The worry from a Blairite POV is that McDonnell does enough to survive.
    Under PR maybe, not under FPTP. If McDonnell fails to lead the largest party or get enough seats to form a government the Blairite MPs will oust him but he will probably step down anyway
    Why would he step down? You're fundamentally misunderstanding the hard left takeover of the Labour party.

    He failed to win the election that is why and as I said if he did not the MPs would have the excuse to oust him they did not pre-election
    As I said, misunderstanding the hard left takeover of Labour leadership.
    No, that is practical reality. The left do not have a majority of MPs, so MPs can oust the Labour leader if he fails to perform and failing to win a general election would give them the mandate to do so and they would do just that
    Only for the die hard membership to elect another hard lefter.
    They would not get the chance, with Corbyn and McDonnell gone no other hard lefter would get on the ballot paper, instead Chuka would effectively be anointed by MPs before it even got to the membership for approval
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jack Duffin @JackDuffin

    Sixth ward in Thurrock. UKIP Gain with 47% of the vote.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229

    I love election nights!

    Aint they just great!!

    This time last year I'd walked 16 miles in the neighbouring marginal GOTV, after a 28 mile final day of canvassing. Some long driveways in Dorset.....
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Very big turnout in Eastwood. 68.5% That is going to be seriously interesting. Tories in with a chance on current swings.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Conservatives hold Castle Point
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Laura K reading Labour's crib note live on air to McDonnell. Who looks like someone just pissed on his chips. Cracking telly.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:
    Can't wait for the results from Barnet and Harrow later on!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Mortimer said:

    I love election nights!

    Aint they just great!!

    This time last year I'd walked 16 miles in the neighbouring marginal GOTV, after a 28 mile final day of canvassing. Some long driveways in Dorset.....
    It'd help if you didn't have a 14 mile driveway ;):D
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Artist said:

    AndyJS said:

    Conservatives hold Edgbaston by 78 votes.

    There has been a swing to Labour in the few Birmingham seats we've had so far.
    Demographic change.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Laura K reading Labour's crib note live on air to McDonnell. Who looks like someone just pissed on his chips. Cracking telly.

    Wish I had seen that but couldn't bear him anymore. Laura is great.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,729
    Laura k revealing the speaking notes...wonder who leaked them?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    hunchman said:

    Mortimer said:

    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....

    UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
    My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...

    Labour: time to put a fork in
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I love election nights!

    Aint they just great!!

    This time last year I'd walked 16 miles in the neighbouring marginal GOTV, after a 28 mile final day of canvassing. Some long driveways in Dorset.....
    It'd help if you didn't have a 14 mile driveway ;):D
    Damn - you're the first person who has spotted that....
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Labour on zero gains / losses now in council seats. Heading into the NEGATIVE
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    McDonnell is frightening. Laura K thought she had knifed him with the leaked Labour briefing doc. He turned it around with apparent self-deprecating charm.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I love election nights!

    Aint they just great!!

    This time last year I'd walked 16 miles in the neighbouring marginal GOTV, after a 28 mile final day of canvassing. Some long driveways in Dorset.....
    It'd help if you didn't have a 14 mile driveway ;):D
    Damn - you're the first person who has spotted that....
    Convenient positioning of the post office at the top though, to drop off the leaflets ;)
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    This is sad on many levels:

    sarah smith ‏@BBCsarahsmith

    Labour sources in Scotland keen to point out if they are beaten into 3rd place it is not Tories overtaking them, it is Labour undertaking
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    Wish I had seen that but couldn't bear him anymore. Laura is great.

    https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/728379089099329536
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Laura K reading Labour's crib note live on air to McDonnell. Who looks like someone just pissed on his chips. Cracking telly.

    Wish I had seen that but couldn't bear him anymore. Laura is great.
    He laughed and said he had written them (in a joking manner)
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Labour NEGATIVE now.

    Eastwood going to be very interesting. And noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Weymouth NOC
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838

    This is sad on many levels:

    sarah smith ‏@BBCsarahsmith

    Labour sources in Scotland keen to point out if they are beaten into 3rd place it is not Tories overtaking them, it is Labour undertaking

    lol
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229

    McDonnell is frightening. Laura K thought she had knifed him with the leaked Labour briefing doc. He turned it around with apparent self-deprecating charm.

    Very good performance from him tonight. As you say, absolutely frightening.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Danny565 said:

    Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.

    I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though ;)
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Luckily only about 9 people are watching this broadcast - and they're mostly PB Tories.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    This is sad on many levels:

    sarah smith ‏@BBCsarahsmith

    Labour sources in Scotland keen to point out if they are beaten into 3rd place it is not Tories overtaking them, it is Labour undertaking

    That is one of the maddest bits of spin ever.

    How can it be good to claim that it is not your opponents doing really well, it is you doing really, really, really badly?!
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207

    This is sad on many levels:

    sarah smith ‏@BBCsarahsmith

    Labour sources in Scotland keen to point out if they are beaten into 3rd place it is not Tories overtaking them, it is Labour undertaking

    Never forget the hate, they always have their hate.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2016
    hunchman said:

    Labour NEGATIVE now.

    Eastwood going to be very interesting. And noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.

    Labour third in Eastwood I assume. Between Tories and SNP, probably.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HTScotPol: LibDems believe they are ahead in Edinburgh Western. Tories at #edincount also say seat is looking good for LibDems
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    The speed at which these very small constituencies are being counted in Scotland is really derisory. The counters in Sunderland are probably in their beds by now.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Mortimer said:

    hunchman said:

    Mortimer said:

    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....

    UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
    My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...

    Labour: time to put a fork in
    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Phil McCann @phi1mccann

    UKIP make their first gain from Labour in Bolton, in Little Lever & Darcy Lever:
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Danny565 said:

    Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.

    Well said.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    hunchman said:

    noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.

    Not well enough it seems
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Weymouth/Portland so far Lab 5 held 4 gain 1 from Con lose 1 to Lib Dem
    Con 1 held 1 lose 1 to Lab
    Lib Dem 4 held 3 gain 1 from Lab
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    hunchman said:

    Labour NEGATIVE now.

    Eastwood going to be very interesting. And noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.

    Labour third in Eastwood I assume. Between Tories and SNP, probably.
    Murphy vote moving back to the Tories it would seem.

    Speaking of Mr Murphy, according to Wiki: "After the 2015 election, Murphy became an advisor to the Finnish non-profit Crisis Management Initiative (CMI), advising on "conflict resolution in central Asia"

    Will he come back at some point into Labour politics in Scotland?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    hunchman said:

    Mortimer said:

    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....

    UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
    My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...

    Labour: time to put a fork in
    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
    Disagree totally.

    For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Are UKIP in a position to win any council tonight?
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Edinburgh Southern looking good for LABOUR - BBC
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.

    I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though ;)
    They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.

    I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though ;)
    They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
    Auntie knows best ;)
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.

    I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though ;)
    They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
    They're also comparing to 2015, which is also useless.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HTScotPol: Labour sources at #edincount still confident party will come second nationally
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    (Rutherglen) another one bites the dust
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Tavish Scott "confident" of holding Shetland for LibDems - BBC
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299


    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain


    Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Scott_P said:

    hunchman said:

    noises about Ruth D performing well in Ed Central.

    Not well enough it seems
    I remember for the short time I lived in Polworth getting a leaflet through from Sarah Boyack - I see she is standing for Labour again this time - 3rd would be humiliating for her after being the MSP for 12 years.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    hunchman said:

    Mortimer said:

    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....

    UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
    My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...

    Labour: time to put a fork in
    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
    Disagree totally.

    For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
    No way, the difference was in indyref Labour voters were split, Tories overwhelmingly for No, so the SNP's main target was Yes Labour voters, in EU ref Tory voters are split, a clear majority of Labour voters are for Remain, so UKIP's main target will be Leave Tory voters
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Are UKIP in a position to win any council tonight?

    Rotherham, Lincoln.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    hunchman said:

    Mortimer said:

    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....

    UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
    My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...

    Labour: time to put a fork in
    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
    Disagree totally.

    For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
    No way, the difference was in indyref Labour voters were split, Tories overwhelmingly for No, so the SNP's main target was Yes Labour voters, in EU ref Tory voters are split, a clear majority of Labour voters are for Remain, so UKIP's main target will be Leave Tory voters
    Not when Leave wins!

    More seriously, it is not all about voters switching.

    It is about previous voters staying at home.

    That is how Blair won a landslide in 1997. Tory voters stayed at home.

    Imagine if 25% of Labour voters stayed at home in the North in 2020.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Labour has lost three seats to Tories in Nuneaton, but still hold council
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591



    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain


    Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,

    I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Are UKIP in a position to win any council tonight?

    Rotherham, Lincoln.
    Thanks!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Danny565 said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Just to say that, despite the spin from McDonnell and now Emily Maitlis, saying "Labour have increased from 2015" is also a useless comparator, just as comparing to 2012 is useless.

    I don't think the BBC has compared to 2011 once on their show though ;)
    They seem to think 2012 is the equivalent point to compare against......
    They're also comparing to 2015, which is also useless.
    But not 2011 ;)
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour have lost Holyrood in Bury to the LDs.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Current state of English Council seats (1.29am) Labour 227 (-4) Cons 81 (+5) LibDems 27 (-3) Indy 10 (-4) UKIP 8 (+6) Green 1 (0)
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited May 2016
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Are UKIP in a position to win any council tonight?

    Rotherham, Lincoln.
    Oo, and Thurrock? No UKIP would be just short if they own the remaining seats.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Stockport LibDem leader loses seat - other LibDem losses on council - R5Live
  • William_H
    William_H Posts: 346

    This is sad on many levels:

    sarah smith ‏@BBCsarahsmith

    Labour sources in Scotland keen to point out if they are beaten into 3rd place it is not Tories overtaking them, it is Labour undertaking

    That is one of the maddest bits of spin ever.

    How can it be good to claim that it is not your opponents doing really well, it is you doing really, really, really badly?!
    Well, if your objective is to damage the current leadership as much as possible?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour hold Stevenage
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Labour hold Chorley, Rochdale and Hull
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591

    Current state of English Council seats (1.29am) Labour 227 (-4) Cons 81 (+5) LibDems 27 (-3) Indy 10 (-4) UKIP 8 (+6) Green 1 (0)

    O/T - How are your cats going on Plato? Our two remaining Persians getting very old now - the white will be 18 in 7 weeks time, and our black persian will be 17 around the EU referendum too, her sight is causing concern, and she bumps into a few things, and we can't scatter the munchies for her any longer. But apart from that she's fine bless her.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    :smiley:

    Phil Rodgers @PhilRodgers

    I don't think I'm committing an election offence to reveal that one voter drew a portrait of Iron Man on their PCC ballot & voted for it.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HTScotPol: LibDem sources at #edincount say @willie_rennie has gained North East Fife from SNP
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Labour spin lines on BBC looking increasingly like 2015. About 2 hours behind the times....
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ianssmart: No harm to the media but if these individual contest predictions are correct the Nats might not have 65. Surely that's the story.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    When are we going to get the 3rd Scottish declaration? Seems a long wait after Orkney and Rutherglen!
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HTScotPol: Labour sources at #edincount reckon Iain Gray has held East Lothian
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    I can't wait to see my corbyn-raving luvvy mates on fb explain tonight....
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    hunchman said:



    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain


    Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
    I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.

    There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited May 2016
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    hunchman said:



    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain


    Not sure if I agree, but an interesting line of thought which hadn't occured to me before,
    I agree totally - Tory to UKIP en masse after the EU referendum and when the global sovereign debt crisis begins properly and sterling slides. Still think the USD (important) low to come the week after next.
    There will be Tory to UKIP movement but more in the manner of Lab to LD after the Iraq War than Lab to SNP after indyref rather than en masse. If Remain win a sterling slide is less likely though
    Handy hint: the future doesn't have to be like the past....
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    hunchman said:

    When are we going to get the 3rd Scottish declaration? Seems a long wait after Orkney and Rutherglen!

    Its really pathetic.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    hunchman said:

    Mortimer said:

    UKIP eating into WWC vote could make all our discussions about Labour needing a centrist leader moot anyway. Might simply be no way back for a party that has abandoned its historic core supporters in favour of identity politics....

    UKIP has a wonderful opportunity over the next few years with the WWC vote providing Corbyn and McDonnell continue to head Labour into an electoral cul-de-sac
    My thinking is that WWC are not going to return to a hard left party or a Blairite party either...

    Labour: time to put a fork in
    Most of the wwc who would defect to UKIP from Labour have already gone, most last year, the biggest gains UKIP will make from now until 2020 are likely to be from Tories, especially those who voted Leave if it is a narrow Remain
    Disagree totally.

    For Labour, 2020 in England could be like 2015 in Scotland. Just imagine that....
    No way, the difference was in indyref Labour voters were split, Tories overwhelmingly for No, so the SNP's main target was Yes Labour voters, in EU ref Tory voters are split, a clear majority of Labour voters are for Remain, so UKIP's main target will be Leave Tory voters
    Not when Leave wins!

    More seriously, it is not all about voters switching.

    It is about previous voters staying at home.

    That is how Blair won a landslide in 1997. Tory voters stayed at home.

    Imagine if 25% of Labour voters stayed at home in the North in 2020.
    Under FPTP that would make little difference considering most of the northern seats have comfortable Labour majorities
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sky council seats declaration miles behind the Beeb. Hunchman praising the BBC! What's happening!
This discussion has been closed.