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Bet on Raducanu for SPOTY before tonight’s final – politicalbetting.com
Bet on Raducanu for SPOTY before tonight’s final – politicalbetting.com
It is very hard to see between now and the December vote for the Sports Personality of the Year in December for the 18 year old tennis sensation from Bromley to be knocked off her perch as the strong odds of betting favourite, Without any doubt she is the UK sporting sensation of the year and millions will be tuning in to Channel 4 this evening at 9pm.
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Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).
Did you truly mean this?
Imagine if for some reason the US constitution had included the death penalty for gay sex, hardcoded in, because that was felt to be moral when it was written? Are you saying that this should also have that higher authority status?
A big problem is the US is that making law by judicial activism is a really bad idea - Roe may have pleased the abortion lobby at the time, but it was a terrible thing for the USA because of the *way* it was done, leaving aside what it was about. It's resulted in the politicisation of the judiciary in a way that's truly horrible.
It was a decision which should have been left to state legislators in the first place - and then people would have voted and got laws reflecting their votes. And, yes, that probably means today abortion would be legal in California, and illegal in Texas, and therefore people on both sides of the issue would be unhappy - but we wouldn't see presidential elections where the reason half the voters have for backing their candidate is because they are trying to change the balance of power in the Supreme Court, rather than anything else.
That's a no from me.
Ryan Giggs in Man United directors' box for today's game at Old Trafford
https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1436688145349849090
I wonder if Prince Andrew was also invited?
iSAGE now arguing that Meaghan Kall of PHE is wrong about vaccines of all things.
But thankfully we aren't forced to choose.
But it's an amazing map by any standard. The cross-border difference swamps any effect from correlation with voting patterms, whether LD, Slab or SNP or Tory - the Tory seats don't look any different from the rest.
@andrew_lilico
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1h
Try to imagine telling your 2019 self that in under 2 yrs folk wld consider it a serious point of view that folk shld be forced to stay 2m away from others, & indoor sports & dancing shld be banned, so as to prevent a 2% rise in the number of people each day who go to hospital.
EDIT: The odds on her winning SPoTY are now shorter than her winning the final. That's madness.
I see Starmer’s fast fading Labour still four points behind Tories despite everything mid term and botched budgets in the latest Telegraph poll.
Still with these big gaps between them and Labour, Tory HQ have to be happy with how polling going this weekend?
Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?
And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.
My point was in that R16 game, those first two games she was absolutely smashed off the court, but came back as if no biggie. Many British players in the past have immediately crumpled.
The idea that we should require healthy and vaccinated adults to wear facemasks every winter (because that's what doing it this year will mean in practice) is simply unacceptable.
It doesn't seem to make a discernable difference requiring masks anyway - it's not like Wales and Scotland are doing noticeably better as a result.
And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
For me, it is if you have competed for another country, then they switch.
We killed 200k unborn children last year in the UK. Mostly for convenience, if we're to be honest about it. If we banned abortion tomorrow, I doubt the annual number of deaths from the "backstreet" types would be far into three figures.
Some how, the GOATs, they need that to really show their brilliance e.g. some of Tiger Woods absolute stunner shots have been under the most incredible pressure.
Faldo is another interesting one from golf. He isn't the best golfer ever, but he won a number of majors where as you say the other leading contender playing with him suddenly had an off day....it wasn't a coincidence.
I'd go for Whitlock, personally. To defend the pommel horse title is impressive. He's the most decorated Olympic gymnast in that event.
Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.
Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?
I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.
But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
I am not moralising on whether that is good or bad, just saying ...
(On balance it is probably not good)
Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):
CON: 37%
LAB: 33%
LDM: 12%
GRN: 8%
RFM: 5%
Don't worry, probably just me.
But he smashed it out of the park. And lots of others bottled it. There was a young Irish lad who was expected to have a chance and he completely messed up and looked utterly devastated. The guy who came second was very good, but his routine lacked the variety of Whitlock's and that's what won it for Max.
His aim now is to come up with a move so that he can have it named after him. How's that for ambition?!
Thinks a bit harder...name of Jeremy Corbyn comes to mind....scrap that idea.
2009 Giggs 151k
2010 McCoy 293k
2011 Cavendish 169k
2012 Wiggins 492k
2013 Murray 401k
2014 Hamilton 209k
2015 Murray 361k
2016 Murray 247k
2017 Farrah 83k
Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.
Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
'Crusaders'
'Safe harbours'
You could have gone with 'camaigners' and 'places'.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year_Award
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2005/jan/15/health.guardianletters
I'm actually surprised it was that low, though this is hard to judge as the actual rate of illegal abortion is by definiotion not recorded in any comprehensive way.
World generally today seems to be "between 4.7% – 13.2% of maternal deaths can be attributed to unsafe abortion" fide WHO:
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/preventing-unsafe-abortion
Having been to one myself, they are the work of Beelzebub.
Surely we're all familiar with concepts about different demographic groups having different voting turnouts and preferences ?
You don't need millions of votes to win SPOTY nor do you have people voting for 'the other side' to stop you winning.
What you need is maximum 500k enthusiasts.
Other than posting the results, your analysis is not particularly helpful. For me the big takeaway would be the drop in the Tory vote, and indeed that the LDs rather than Labour are the primary beneficiary.
When Hill won SPoTY in 1994, there was at least the sense that he had been cheated, he had gone through something pretty horrific with his teammate being killed, and no one else really did any good that year.
The PM will outline plans for booster jabs after the UK's vaccine advisory body unveils its guidance on Monday.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58529158
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9980085/Somerset-gimp-Fears-latex-clad-prowler-terrorised-village-two-years-ago-returned.html
As you say he wasn't certain above any of those 3.
Another big fall from last week.
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1436704074615906305
A banner supporting a woman who accused footballer Cristiano Ronaldo of a sex assault has been flown over Old Trafford during his return game for Manchester United.
The Level Up feminist group said they wanted to "remind crowds" of rape allegations against him.
Kathryn Mayorga said she was assaulted by him at a Las Vegas hotel in 2009.
In 2019, US prosecutors said Ronaldo, who denied the claims, would not face charges.
A plane with the banner "Believe Kathryn Mayorga" was flown after the start of Ronaldo's return game against Newcastle United at Old Trafford.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/sep/09/cristiano-ronaldo-return-manchester-united-awkward-conversations-as-well-as-cheers
Randy Andy should not be tempted into trying buy off that woman. Ronnie did that and it's not gone away...