Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Bet on Raducanu for SPOTY before tonight’s final – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 11 in General
imageBet on Raducanu for SPOTY before tonight’s final – politicalbetting.com

It is very hard to see between now and the December vote for the Sports Personality of the Year in December for the 18 year old tennis sensation from Bromley to be knocked off her perch as the strong odds of betting favourite, Without any doubt she is the UK sporting sensation of the year and millions will be tuning in to Channel 4 this evening at 9pm.

Read the full story here

«13456710

Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 7,852
    Good tip
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 11
    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    FPT

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    Scotland, Wales and London good, rest of England bad.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 487
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    And just a rider on abortion that to me is crucial:

    "I believe that to take the life of an unborn child is morally wrong and I'd think ill of anybody involved in such an enterprise."

    "Abortion should be illegal."

    These are very different positions. The 1st is a statement of your views. The 2nd is imposing your views on everybody else.

    Is that not the price of democracy? Some people’s views get imposed on others.
    Yes, but with boundaries. Eg, a majority might wish to make it illegal for girls to go to university. Nevertheless this ought not to happen since there is something embedded in a higher authority - the constitution or the ECHR or the Supreme Court or whatever - which prevents the enactment of legislation which degrades people on account of their identity. This is essential in order to keep "democracy" in check. Democracy is a tool not a god. It's a means not an end. This concept is at the heart of Roe v Wade. Should a women's ownership of her own body be something protected at that higher level? I say it should.
    If you succeed in setting your current morals in stone via this sort of mechanism, you eventually you either get a revolution, or a way is found to change the law.

    Imagine if for some reason the US constitution had included the death penalty for gay sex, hardcoded in, because that was felt to be moral when it was written? Are you saying that this should also have that higher authority status?

    A big problem is the US is that making law by judicial activism is a really bad idea - Roe may have pleased the abortion lobby at the time, but it was a terrible thing for the USA because of the *way* it was done, leaving aside what it was about. It's resulted in the politicisation of the judiciary in a way that's truly horrible.

    It was a decision which should have been left to state legislators in the first place - and then people would have voted and got laws reflecting their votes. And, yes, that probably means today abortion would be legal in California, and illegal in Texas, and therefore people on both sides of the issue would be unhappy - but we wouldn't see presidential elections where the reason half the voters have for backing their candidate is because they are trying to change the balance of power in the Supreme Court, rather than anything else.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168
    edited September 11
    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    Wow.
    That's a no from me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 95,999
    edited September 11
    Talking of an (in)famous SPOTY.

    Ryan Giggs in Man United directors' box for today's game at Old Trafford

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1436688145349849090

    I wonder if Prince Andrew was also invited?
  • If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    She's certainly not Canadian according to those who seek to politicize her.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,964
    Oh what a lovely war! :smiley:

    iSAGE now arguing that Meaghan Kall of PHE is wrong about vaccines of all things.
  • If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    She is playing the Canadian American Flippino Ecuadorian....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    theProle said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    And just a rider on abortion that to me is crucial:

    "I believe that to take the life of an unborn child is morally wrong and I'd think ill of anybody involved in such an enterprise."

    "Abortion should be illegal."

    These are very different positions. The 1st is a statement of your views. The 2nd is imposing your views on everybody else.

    Is that not the price of democracy? Some people’s views get imposed on others.
    Yes, but with boundaries. Eg, a majority might wish to make it illegal for girls to go to university. Nevertheless this ought not to happen since there is something embedded in a higher authority - the constitution or the ECHR or the Supreme Court or whatever - which prevents the enactment of legislation which degrades people on account of their identity. This is essential in order to keep "democracy" in check. Democracy is a tool not a god. It's a means not an end. This concept is at the heart of Roe v Wade. Should a women's ownership of her own body be something protected at that higher level? I say it should.
    If you succeed in setting your current morals in stone via this sort of mechanism, you eventually you either get a revolution, or a way is found to change the law.

    Imagine if for some reason the US constitution had included the death penalty for gay sex, hardcoded in, because that was felt to be moral when it was written? Are you saying that this should also have that higher authority status?

    A big problem is the US is that making law by judicial activism is a really bad idea - Roe may have pleased the abortion lobby at the time, but it was a terrible thing for the USA because of the *way* it was done, leaving aside what it was about. It's resulted in the politicisation of the judiciary in a way that's truly horrible.

    It was a decision which should have been left to state legislators in the first place - and then people would have voted and got laws reflecting their votes. And, yes, that probably means today abortion would be legal in California, and illegal in Texas, and therefore people on both sides of the issue would be unhappy - but we wouldn't see presidential elections where the reason half the voters have for backing their candidate is because they are trying to change the balance of power in the Supreme Court, rather than anything else.
    Depressingly you may have a point, which is why in the US we have now have the Dems v. the white supremacist Taliban.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 11
    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    Wow.
    That's a no from me.
    I mean, I start from a position of not particularly liking abortion and I'm squeamish about anything after a few weeks (except for obvious health reasons etc.).

    But thankfully we aren't forced to choose.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    I'd been led to believe by this kind of silly comment that she was a Greg Rusedski, but listening to her speak disabused me of that notion.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    I'd been led to believe by this kind of silly comment that she was a Greg Rusedski, but listening to her speak disabused me of that notion.
    More like a John Barnes or Mo Farah.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    edited September 11
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    Scotland, Wales and London good, rest of England bad.
    That red spot south of Glasgow must be Newton Mearns South & Eaglesham. Surprise, surprise, about the only Tory ward for about 40-50km in any directionj.

    But it's an amazing map by any standard. The cross-border difference swamps any effect from correlation with voting patterms, whether LD, Slab or SNP or Tory - the Tory seats don't look any different from the rest.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,964
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Try to imagine telling your 2019 self that in under 2 yrs folk wld consider it a serious point of view that folk shld be forced to stay 2m away from others, & indoor sports & dancing shld be banned, so as to prevent a 2% rise in the number of people each day who go to hospital.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    I'd been led to believe by this kind of silly comment that she was a Greg Rusedski, but listening to her speak disabused me of that notion.
    Given she moved here when she was 2, rather than 22 (in Rusedski case), hardly surprising.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
  • If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    I'd been led to believe by this kind of silly comment that she was a Greg Rusedski, but listening to her speak disabused me of that notion.
    If people are eligible to compete for this country they are eligible. And yet there is the hate section of the press always happy to throw their forrin traits about if they disappoint.
  • tlg86 said:

    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.

    Trigger warning for some.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Erhh....R16, immediately went a break down....was definitely under pressure. Could have easily crumbled there.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Not allowed to say that, even if the BBC did refer (like the riots some years back) to "UK" sewage discharge control relief (so to speak) when showing a map of shitshows solely in E&W the other day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 11
    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Could argue it either way. She should be fresher than her opponent, but there's no denying that Fernandez has beaten bigger names.

    EDIT: The odds on her winning SPoTY are now shorter than her winning the final. That's madness.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066

    I see Starmer’s fast fading Labour still four points behind Tories despite everything mid term and botched budgets in the latest Telegraph poll.

    Still with these big gaps between them and Labour, Tory HQ have to be happy with how polling going this weekend?
  • Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Erhh....R16, immediately went a break down....was definitely under pressure. Could have easily crumbled there.
    And then she won, what, 10 games on the bounce? She is playing phenomenal tennis but how will she respond to losing a set?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    IIRC, OKC was speaking the other day of these happy years. There was a very considerable reduction in mortality thanks to illegal abortions when the Act was passed. (ANd that would also apply to the RoI, insofar as the UK dealt with the problem for them.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    Scotland, Wales and London good, rest of England bad.
    Commenting on that chart, or just a statement of general truth?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Erhh....R16, immediately went a break down....was definitely under pressure. Could have easily crumbled there.
    And then she won, what, 10 games on the bounce? She is playing phenomenal tennis but how will she respond to losing a set?
    Absolutely, and she has had a number of crucial moment, break points down, 0-30s, and they have all gone for her. Great tennis, but one of those goes the wrong way and slightly different twist.

    My point was in that R16 game, those first two games she was absolutely smashed off the court, but came back as if no biggie. Many British players in the past have immediately crumpled.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    It's an awful hypothetical, but it's a very difficult subject. Thankfully we're not forced to choose.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 487
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58529158
    A government source stressed the Covid Winter Plan would emphasise how society planned to continue "living with" the virus throughout the winter and promote Covid and flu jabs.

    The Times reports that mandatory face coverings and working from home will be brought back in if there is a winter surge in infections.

    There is growing concern among ministers that the NHS could come under severe strain if Covid infections surged alongside a bad flu season, the paper says.
    SAGE need to be put back in their box on this sort of thing ASAP. Being realistic the Covid situation is unlikely to improve much from here on in - we've pretty much done what can be done (booster vax is probably only can kicking, unless we do it every six months, which isn't viable for the whole population), something like 95% of the adults population now have antibodies.

    The idea that we should require healthy and vaccinated adults to wear facemasks every winter (because that's what doing it this year will mean in practice) is simply unacceptable.

    It doesn't seem to make a discernable difference requiring masks anyway - it's not like Wales and Scotland are doing noticeably better as a result.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168
    21 minutes on the clock and Ronaldo yet to score for United. Was it all hype?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Could argue it either way. She should be fresher than her opponent, but there's no denying that Fernandez has beaten bigger names.

    EDIT: The odds on her winning SPoTY are now shorter than her winning the final. That's madness.
    Is there some clever combination of bets on the final and on SPOTY where you are pretty certain to come out ahead?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    DavidL said:

    21 minutes on the clock and Ronaldo yet to score for United. Was it all hype?

    Washed up fancy dan waste of £25 million a year ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    It's preposterous we're considering another lockdown of sorts in the winter when we have no plans to bang out boosters to every over 50.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    kle4 said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
    Peaty is the GOAT at his event....he hasn't just won, he has smashed everybody year in year out for what 7 years?

    Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Could argue it either way. She should be fresher than her opponent, but there's no denying that Fernandez has beaten bigger names.

    EDIT: The odds on her winning SPoTY are now shorter than her winning the final. That's madness.
    Is there some clever combination of bets on the final and on SPOTY where you are pretty certain to come out ahead?
    Backing her to win the final and laying her for SPoTY probably wins you one bet and quite possibly two. But you never know. Is she as popular as Damon Hill? Is Tom Daley more popular than Steve Redgrave (he always came across a bit cold)?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Erhh....R16, immediately went a break down....was definitely under pressure. Could have easily crumbled there.
    And then she won, what, 10 games on the bounce? She is playing phenomenal tennis but how will she respond to losing a set?
    Absolutely, and she has had a number of crucial moment, break points down, 0-30s, and they have all gone for her. Great tennis, but one of those goes the wrong way and slightly different twist.

    My point was in that R16 game, those first two games she was absolutely smashed off the court, but came back as if no biggie. Many British players in the past have immediately crumpled.
    It is not a coincidence that everyone she plays has an off day. She makes them have an off day by reading their game and imposing ridiculous levels of pressure. She is something else.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    I'd been led to believe by this kind of silly comment that she was a Greg Rusedski, but listening to her speak disabused me of that notion.
    Bromley girl. Totally.
  • [Vic Reeves voice] RADUCANU!!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    So here is a question at what age does somebody moving to another country and then competing for them at a sport do we say is worth commenting on?

    For me, it is if you have competed for another country, then they switch.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 487
    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    IIRC, OKC was speaking the other day of these happy years. There was a very considerable reduction in mortality thanks to illegal abortions when the Act was passed. (ANd that would also apply to the RoI, insofar as the UK dealt with the problem for them.)
    Out of interest, what sort numbers are you talking? Of course, back then, single mother, having child out of wedlock etc. was a huge deal - it really isn't now, so I think it's unlikely there would be nearly so many desperate mothers.

    We killed 200k unborn children last year in the UK. Mostly for convenience, if we're to be honest about it. If we banned abortion tomorrow, I doubt the annual number of deaths from the "backstreet" types would be far into three figures.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Erhh....R16, immediately went a break down....was definitely under pressure. Could have easily crumbled there.
    And then she won, what, 10 games on the bounce? She is playing phenomenal tennis but how will she respond to losing a set?
    Absolutely, and she has had a number of crucial moment, break points down, 0-30s, and they have all gone for her. Great tennis, but one of those goes the wrong way and slightly different twist.

    My point was in that R16 game, those first two games she was absolutely smashed off the court, but came back as if no biggie. Many British players in the past have immediately crumpled.
    It is not a coincidence that everyone she plays has an off day. She makes them have an off day by reading their game and imposing ridiculous levels of pressure. She is something else.
    Well also as we have seen she has that magic x-factor that the great players have, the pressure comes and they pull out the top quality stuff. Fired down a number of perfect Aces when facing that break point.

    Some how, the GOATs, they need that to really show their brilliance e.g. some of Tiger Woods absolute stunner shots have been under the most incredible pressure.

    Faldo is another interesting one from golf. He isn't the best golfer ever, but he won a number of majors where as you say the other leading contender playing with him suddenly had an off day....it wasn't a coincidence.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Could argue it either way. She should be fresher than her opponent, but there's no denying that Fernandez has beaten bigger names.

    EDIT: The odds on her winning SPoTY are now shorter than her winning the final. That's madness.
    The implied view is if she wins she's a Spoty cert and if not she still has a great chance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    tlg86 said:

    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.

    I've always thought of Tennis as a pretty posh sport, not sure why. Maybe because of the local club pairing it with Bowls.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    kle4 said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
    Peaty is the GOAT at his event....he hasn't just won, he has smashed everybody year in year out for what 7 years?

    Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
    But then Daley is competing in an event which is dominated by one country. Peaty turns up, he wins. I appreciate he's worked very hard to do what he does, but swimming doesn't have the same pressure as delivering on the day when it matters, which is what diving is about.

    I'd go for Whitlock, personally. To defend the pommel horse title is impressive. He's the most decorated Olympic gymnast in that event.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202

    Talking of an (in)famous SPOTY.

    Ryan Giggs in Man United directors' box for today's game at Old Trafford

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1436688145349849090

    I wonder if Prince Andrew was also invited?

    I'd like to explore the moral case for abortions in the 173rd trimester
  • kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    IIRC, OKC was speaking the other day of these happy years. There was a very considerable reduction in mortality thanks to illegal abortions when the Act was passed. (ANd that would also apply to the RoI, insofar as the UK dealt with the problem for them.)
    The problem is as the pro-life crusaders gain more and more geographical ground there will be fewer safe harbours for those requiring the service.

    I am not moralising on whether that is good or bad, just saying ...

    (On balance it is probably not good)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
    Peaty is the GOAT at his event....he hasn't just won, he has smashed everybody year in year out for what 7 years?

    Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
    But then Daley is competing in an event which is dominated by one country. Peaty turns up, he wins. I appreciate he's worked very hard to do what he does, but swimming doesn't have the same pressure as delivering on the day when it matters, which is what diving is about.

    I'd go for Whitlock, personally. To defend the pommel horse title is impressive. He's the most decorated Olympic gymnast in that event.
    Jumping off a board is among the worst and most boring sports there are.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    If she wins she's BRITISH. If she loses she's Canadian / Chinese / Romanian

    Nah, this girl is going to be a star for the next decade either way. If she wins she is SPOTY by acclamation so the bet for me is on her odds of winning. Is there a risk its just been too easy for her? She hasn't had real pressure in any of her matches yet because she just seems to deconstruct her opponent's game. But when the pressure is on how will she respond?
    Could argue it either way. She should be fresher than her opponent, but there's no denying that Fernandez has beaten bigger names.

    EDIT: The odds on her winning SPoTY are now shorter than her winning the final. That's madness.
    The implied view is if she wins she's a Spoty cert and if not she still has a great chance.
    Will be interesting to see what happens to her odds for SPoTY whatever the result. I guess we'll be able to work out to what extent the expectation of her winning SPoTY was based on her not winning tonight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
    Peaty is the GOAT at his event....he hasn't just won, he has smashed everybody year in year out for what 7 years?

    Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
    But then Daley is competing in an event which is dominated by one country. Peaty turns up, he wins. I appreciate he's worked very hard to do what he does, but swimming doesn't have the same pressure as delivering on the day when it matters, which is what diving is about.

    I'd go for Whitlock, personally. To defend the pommel horse title is impressive. He's the most decorated Olympic gymnast in that event.
    I think the problem with the pommel horse is to the layman it can be hard to tell a good run from a great run. He's clearly superb. Whereas its simple to see that Peaty is phenomenal, and while diving is less clear cut the watching public can still generally tell what is a hard dive, and the splash gives a clear way of seeing if the landing was very good or not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
    Peaty is the GOAT at his event....he hasn't just won, he has smashed everybody year in year out for what 7 years?

    Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
    But then Daley is competing in an event which is dominated by one country. Peaty turns up, he wins. I appreciate he's worked very hard to do what he does, but swimming doesn't have the same pressure as delivering on the day when it matters, which is what diving is about.

    I'd go for Whitlock, personally. To defend the pommel horse title is impressive. He's the most decorated Olympic gymnast in that event.
    Jumping off a board is among the worst and most boring sports there are.
    That's why they add spinning and twisting after the jump to add interest!
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,066
    gealbhan said:


    I see Starmer’s fast fading Labour still four points behind Tories despite everything mid term and botched budgets in the latest Telegraph poll.

    Still with these big gaps between them and Labour, Tory HQ have to be happy with how polling going this weekend?

    Starmer is toast. The big moment has been blown by sleep at the wheel Labour leadership. “But you don’t even have a policy”

    Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):
    CON: 37%
    LAB: 33%
    LDM: 12%
    GRN: 8%
    RFM: 5%
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    edited September 11

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    No, more the "do the gays all gang up like the Welsh do?" angle - this had a fruity ring to it. Made me think about Welsh gays and their potential agonized conflict.

    Don't worry, probably just me.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744

    tlg86 said:

    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.

    Trigger warning for some.....
    ...you lookin' at me?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 11
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
    Peaty is the GOAT at his event....he hasn't just won, he has smashed everybody year in year out for what 7 years?

    Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
    But then Daley is competing in an event which is dominated by one country. Peaty turns up, he wins. I appreciate he's worked very hard to do what he does, but swimming doesn't have the same pressure as delivering on the day when it matters, which is what diving is about.

    I'd go for Whitlock, personally. To defend the pommel horse title is impressive. He's the most decorated Olympic gymnast in that event.
    I think the problem with the pommel horse is to the layman it can be hard to tell a good run from a great run. He's clearly superb. Whereas its simple to see that Peaty is phenomenal, and while diving is less clear cut the watching public can still generally tell what is a hard dive, and the splash gives a clear way of seeing if the landing was very good or not.
    I disagree. I watched the pommel horse final and Whitlock went first. This can be a disadvantage as the later you go the more you know how many risks to take.

    But he smashed it out of the park. And lots of others bottled it. There was a young Irish lad who was expected to have a chance and he completely messed up and looked utterly devastated. The guy who came second was very good, but his routine lacked the variety of Whitlock's and that's what won it for Max.

    His aim now is to come up with a move so that he can have it named after him. How's that for ambition?!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    I don't know about the whole "gay block vote" angle....I am sure there are plenty of gay men who fancy a bit of Adam Peaty. But Tom Daley does have a huge social media following and a fairly sizeable YouTube channel. I am sure that counts for something when it comes to things that involve public voting.

    Thinks a bit harder...name of Jeremy Corbyn comes to mind....scrap that idea.
  • kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
  • tlg86 said:

    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.

    Trigger warning for some.....
    ...you lookin' at me?
    I was thinking more TSE....
  • kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    The old Mo Bot didn't get many votes. Bit odd.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    IIRC, OKC was speaking the other day of these happy years. There was a very considerable reduction in mortality thanks to illegal abortions when the Act was passed. (ANd that would also apply to the RoI, insofar as the UK dealt with the problem for them.)
    The problem is as the pro-life crusaders gain more and more geographical ground there will be fewer safe harbours for those requiring the service.

    I am not moralising on whether that is good or bad, just saying ...

    (On balance it is probably not good)
    I'm sorry, but your choice of language was hardly that of an impartial observer.

    'Crusaders'

    'Safe harbours'

    You could have gone with 'camaigners' and 'places'.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    SPoTY must have had a lot more votes than normal in 2012 as Wiggins didn't win that high a percentage of the vote. I guess that was the London factor.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    enough
    It's an awful hypothetical, but it's a very difficult subject. Thankfully we're not forced to choose.
    It is and yes thankfully.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 14,634
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Peaty's the more astounding athlete, and as noted above the Strictly thing should help his profile, though Daley has a really good personal story and seems to be a likable chap. But I'd agree with the general view that the profile of Tennis, long history since success, and Raducanu being youthful, attractive and charming makes her hard to beat if it is a win.
    Peaty is the GOAT at his event....he hasn't just won, he has smashed everybody year in year out for what 7 years?

    Daley is not even currently the world's best diver, let alone the best ever.
    But then Daley is competing in an event which is dominated by one country. Peaty turns up, he wins. I appreciate he's worked very hard to do what he does, but swimming doesn't have the same pressure as delivering on the day when it matters, which is what diving is about.

    I'd go for Whitlock, personally. To defend the pommel horse title is impressive. He's the most decorated Olympic gymnast in that event.
    Jumping off a board is among the worst and most boring sports there are.
    That's why they add spinning and twisting after the jump to add interest!
    And wear skimpy kit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    That Farrah vote really sticks out there. Very low but still won because those in 2nd, 3rd, 4th all got about the same, as I recall.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 11

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    The old Mo Bot didn't get many votes. Bit odd.
    Very split vote. AJ was 1/8 on the day of the vote. He came fourth.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year_Award
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    That Farrah vote really sticks out there. Very low but still won because those in 2nd, 3rd, 4th all got about the same, as I recall.
    Just a competitive year perhaps.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    theProle said:

    Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    IIRC, OKC was speaking the other day of these happy years. There was a very considerable reduction in mortality thanks to illegal abortions when the Act was passed. (ANd that would also apply to the RoI, insofar as the UK dealt with the problem for them.)
    Out of interest, what sort numbers are you talking? Of course, back then, single mother, having child out of wedlock etc. was a huge deal - it really isn't now, so I think it's unlikely there would be nearly so many desperate mothers.

    We killed 200k unborn children last year in the UK. Mostly for convenience, if we're to be honest about it. If we banned abortion tomorrow, I doubt the annual number of deaths from the "backstreet" types would be far into three figures.
    Wendy Savage had a few dozen a year - though there must be some doubt aboiut how many were signed off as natural, etc., a look at a couple of papers in Population Studies suggests it's the right ballpark..

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2005/jan/15/health.guardianletters

    I'm actually surprised it was that low, though this is hard to judge as the actual rate of illegal abortion is by definiotion not recorded in any comprehensive way.

    World generally today seems to be "between 4.7% – 13.2% of maternal deaths can be attributed to unsafe abortion" fide WHO:

    https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/preventing-unsafe-abortion

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744

    tlg86 said:

    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.

    Trigger warning for some.....
    ...you lookin' at me?
    I was thinking more TSE....
    I thought he was pro Grammar School.

    Having been to one myself, they are the work of Beelzebub.
  • I don't know about the whole "gay block vote" angle....I am sure there are plenty of gay men who fancy a bit of Adam Peaty. But Tom Daley does have a huge social media following and a fairly sizeable YouTube channel. I am sure that counts for something when it comes to things that involve public voting.

    This is a politics site.

    Surely we're all familiar with concepts about different demographic groups having different voting turnouts and preferences ?

    You don't need millions of votes to win SPOTY nor do you have people voting for 'the other side' to stop you winning.

    What you need is maximum 500k enthusiasts.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 202
    edited September 11

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    Who did Giggs beat in 2009?
    Actually, don't answer that.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    tlg86 said:

    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.

    Trigger warning for some.....
    ...you lookin' at me?
    I was thinking more TSE....
    I thought he was pro Grammar School.

    Having been to one myself, they are the work of Beelzebub.
    TSE wants to privatise schools and give vouchers to parents so that they can vote with their feet.
  • tlg86 said:

    The really important piece of information about Emma is that she went to a grammar school.

    Trigger warning for some.....
    ...you lookin' at me?
    I was thinking more TSE....
    I thought he was pro Grammar School.

    .
    Quite the opposite, actually!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    edited September 11
    On topic, Raducanu should be fav if she wins tonight - but - and I appreciate this might not be the betting reality, it'd be a bit.. disrespectful .. to other sports (Diving, swimming, cycling, gymnastics) if she was to win without winning so to speak
  • Carnyx said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Certainly it being on Channel 4 will help, but the reason Peaty is short-ish is because of the dancing, not the swimming.

    Yes, great news about CH4. Means I can watch.

    Btw, not to bring abortion from PT onto here, but I just wanted to check with you. You said that given the (I agree ridiculous) choice between (i) banning abortion entirely and (ii) having no legal limits and just trusting women with the decision, you'd go for (i).

    Did you truly mean this?
    Yes.
    A moral question, my answer to which I would normally leave to others better qualified in medical terms. But a complete ban? Have you not seen Vera Drake?
    IIRC, OKC was speaking the other day of these happy years. There was a very considerable reduction in mortality thanks to illegal abortions when the Act was passed. (ANd that would also apply to the RoI, insofar as the UK dealt with the problem for them.)
    The problem is as the pro-life crusaders gain more and more geographical ground there will be fewer safe harbours for those requiring the service.

    I am not moralising on whether that is good or bad, just saying ...

    (On balance it is probably not good)
    I'm sorry, but your choice of language was hardly that of an impartial observer.

    'Crusaders'

    'Safe harbours'

    You could have gone with 'camaigners' and 'places'.
    Jihadists?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    The old Mo Bot didn't get many votes. Bit odd.
    Very split vote. AJ was 1/8 on the day of the vote. He came fourth.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year_Award
    The fact that Jonathan Rea nearly won shows why you need to be so so careful with SPoTY. I'm pro-bike, but not in a month of Sundays should he be anywhere near SPoTY.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    The old Mo Bot didn't get many votes. Bit odd.
    No, and ditto the years when he didn't podium. Not as popular as his achievements would have led you to expect.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 13,923
    Farooq said:

    Talking of an (in)famous SPOTY.

    Ryan Giggs in Man United directors' box for today's game at Old Trafford

    https://twitter.com/RobHarris/status/1436688145349849090

    I wonder if Prince Andrew was also invited?

    I'd like to explore the moral case for abortions in the 173rd trimester
    Careful. At least one regular poster will report you for high treason.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 39,168

    DavidL said:

    21 minutes on the clock and Ronaldo yet to score for United. Was it all hype?

    Washed up fancy dan waste of £25 million a year ;-)
    Maybe not.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 11,744
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:


    I see Starmer’s fast fading Labour still four points behind Tories despite everything mid term and botched budgets in the latest Telegraph poll.

    Still with these big gaps between them and Labour, Tory HQ have to be happy with how polling going this weekend?

    Starmer is toast. The big moment has been blown by sleep at the wheel Labour leadership. “But you don’t even have a policy”

    Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):
    CON: 37%
    LAB: 33%
    LDM: 12%
    GRN: 8%
    RFM: 5%
    Are you replying to yourself because no one else is responding to you?

    Other than posting the results, your analysis is not particularly helpful. For me the big takeaway would be the drop in the Tory vote, and indeed that the LDs rather than Labour are the primary beneficiary.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 23,883
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    That Farrah vote really sticks out there. Very low but still won because those in 2nd, 3rd, 4th all got about the same, as I recall.
    Just a competitive year perhaps.
    Yes, but competitive as in slow, I'd say. Not many strong contenders.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic, Raducanu should be fav if she wins tonight - but - and I appreciate this might not be the betting reality, it'd be a bit.. disrespectful .. to other sports (Diving, swimming, cycling, gymnastics) if she was to win without winning so to speak

    I was mixing up my years earlier. Damon actually won the title in 1996, and even if Redgrave was more deserving, it wasn't too bad.

    When Hill won SPoTY in 1994, there was at least the sense that he had been cheated, he had gone through something pretty horrific with his teammate being killed, and no one else really did any good that year.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    21 minutes on the clock and Ronaldo yet to score for United. Was it all hype?

    Washed up fancy dan waste of £25 million a year ;-)
    Maybe not.
    I hope Man Utd fans will thank me :-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Will the previous hot favourite, Adam Peaty edge to favourite again?

    Wasn't Tom Daley the previous favourite ?

    And I wonder if there is a 'gay block vote' in the same way there has been a Welsh one.

    Yes, it was Tom.

    And I see you're doing that slightly bizarre "wondering" of yours again.
    What's bizarre about it ?

    Tom Daley is likely the highest profile gay sports star.

    Is there a possibility of him attracting votes on that basis ?

    I don't know, I don't even know how many votes the SPOTY gets.

    But it certainly could be a factor in the result and possibly something people betting on it need to consider.
    Found some SPOTY voting numbers from 2009 to 2017:

    2009 Giggs 151k
    2010 McCoy 293k
    2011 Cavendish 169k
    2012 Wiggins 492k
    2013 Murray 401k
    2014 Hamilton 209k
    2015 Murray 361k
    2016 Murray 247k
    2017 Farrah 83k

    Noticeable than Andy Murray got a lot of votes which might suggest tennis is popular.

    Alternatively Murray might have been boosted by a 'Scottish block vote'.
    The old Mo Bot didn't get many votes. Bit odd.
    No, and ditto the years when he didn't podium. Not as popular as his achievements would have led you to expect.
    Wasn't 2017 also when there were the first leaks that suggested some concern with his doping samples and spotlight on his coach?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022

    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:


    I see Starmer’s fast fading Labour still four points behind Tories despite everything mid term and botched budgets in the latest Telegraph poll.

    Still with these big gaps between them and Labour, Tory HQ have to be happy with how polling going this weekend?

    Starmer is toast. The big moment has been blown by sleep at the wheel Labour leadership. “But you don’t even have a policy”

    Westminster Voting Intention (MRP):
    CON: 37%
    LAB: 33%
    LDM: 12%
    GRN: 8%
    RFM: 5%
    Are you replying to yourself because no one else is responding to you?

    Other than posting the results, your analysis is not particularly helpful. For me the big takeaway would be the drop in the Tory vote, and indeed that the LDs rather than Labour are the primary beneficiary.
    The big takeaway has to be the swing from Conservative to ReformUK. Labour haven't improved much.
  • Boris Johnson will announce his Covid Winter Plan for England on Tuesday, including contingency measures that would be implemented if the NHS was at risk of becoming overwhelmed.

    The PM will outline plans for booster jabs after the UK's vaccine advisory body unveils its guidance on Monday.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58529158
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    Mo Farah not even top 3 in 2012 is one the sticks with me (mostly because I had bet on him to be in the top 3)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Alistair said:

    Mo Farah not even top 3 in 2012 is one the sticks with me (mostly because I had bet on him to be in the top 3)

    Of the top three (Wiggins, Ennis-Hill and Murray), who did you think he'd finish above? I'd guess you were surprised by Ennis-Hill's popularity.
  • Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Regression poll by Electoral Calculus and FindoutnowUK for Property Chronicle shows where the Nimbys are in Britain. Some areas (green) want more property development locally, and others (red) don't.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_property_20210721.html

    image

    How odd! @justin124 was telling us yesterday that Scottish Labour VI will follow English Labour VI as night follows day. Cos the two countries are identical and always mimic each other’s social trends and voting patterns. Or some such guff.

    Justin doesn’t get out much.

    Scotland, Wales and London good, rest of England bad.
    Surely this map provides the solution to the whole issue. Just concentrate new house building in those areas that want it. Al the more given that many of these areas are the red wall centres that the Tories say they want to improve and 'level up'. Concentrate all building and industrial/manufacturing support in those areas. That way (according top this report anyway) everyone will be happy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Mo Farah not even top 3 in 2012 is one the sticks with me (mostly because I had bet on him to be in the top 3)

    Of the top three (Wiggins, Ennis-Hill and Murray), who did you think he'd finish above? I'd guess you were surprised by Ennis-Hill's popularity.
    I'd let my personal preference cloud my betting judgement.

    As you say he wasn't certain above any of those 3.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited September 11
    29,547 cases...156 deaths

    Another big fall from last week.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    edited September 11
    The Guardian had a piece on this...

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1436704074615906305

    A banner supporting a woman who accused footballer Cristiano Ronaldo of a sex assault has been flown over Old Trafford during his return game for Manchester United.

    The Level Up feminist group said they wanted to "remind crowds" of rape allegations against him.

    Kathryn Mayorga said she was assaulted by him at a Las Vegas hotel in 2009.

    In 2019, US prosecutors said Ronaldo, who denied the claims, would not face charges.

    A plane with the banner "Believe Kathryn Mayorga" was flown after the start of Ronaldo's return game against Newcastle United at Old Trafford.


    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/sep/09/cristiano-ronaldo-return-manchester-united-awkward-conversations-as-well-as-cheers

    Randy Andy should not be tempted into trying buy off that woman. Ronnie did that and it's not gone away...
Sign In or Register to comment.