Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
Doesn't mean they won't try.
And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
Of course it sounds plausible to you, it's what you think is going to happen. In the real world I think the chances of having a covid lockdown continuously for the next 6 months, 6 years, or 60 years, to be near nil.
Oh, it would result in complete societal and economic collapse eventually, but the Government has an awful lot of shit scared elderly supporters to keep it in office and a potentially enormous capacity to borrow more money.
Japan currently has a debt to GDP ratio in excess of 250%. If Sunak can keep borrowing up to that limit then an intermittent pattern of lockdown and partial release could be drawn out for many years.
Well I assume my wife and I (81 & 77) are elderly and we are not scared in the least and in any respect have been double vaccinated
Indeed as I just posted we are mainly getting on with our lives and I expect many more are doing the same
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
Doesn't mean they won't try.
And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
Of course it sounds plausible to you, it's what you think is going to happen. In the real world I think the chances of having a covid lockdown continuously for the next 6 months, 6 years, or 60 years, to be near nil.
Oh, it would result in complete societal and economic collapse eventually, but the Government has an awful lot of shit scared elderly supporters to keep it in office and a potentially enormous capacity to borrow more money.
Japan currently has a debt to GDP ratio in excess of 250%. If Sunak can keep borrowing up to that limit then an intermittent pattern of lockdown and partial release could be drawn out for many years.
There's no way that's going to happen, not if you consider what is going on at the moment in the US and the EU. Seems like there's a bit of a twitchiness that the final stage of the reopening plan, which never had dates set in stone, is being altered. It might mean a few more weeks of the last phase of restrictions, but I just don't buy this doom-mongering that it is the prelude to a never ending lockdown.
Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838 Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243
Fast forward
cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744 Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108
Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.
Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
This was talked about on the radio the other day.
Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.
Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?
Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
They are not filled up.
But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
Yet you said this:
then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing
now having had your claim disproved you shift the goalposts onto NHS backlogs.
The NHS can collapse when staff take time off, finally after a year, when they are overloaded with non Covid patients trying to clear a backlog then there is another uptick in Covid again.
That is collapse of the NHS.
Indeed. There are some very big leave entitlements. And some burned out staff.
As @Stuartinromford astutely pointed out earlier, Boris will survive this because his critics can’t decide whether to attack him for being too restrictive or not restrictive enough (ie the laxness that led to a likely extension of restrictions).
The answer is that he's been not restrictive enough on international travel and too restrictive on the domestic economy and society.
The government's strategy has been that it should be easier to fly to and from India or South Africa or Brazil than it should be to have a round of golf or walk around Sheffield botanical gardens.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
As @Stuartinromford astutely pointed out earlier, Boris will survive this because his critics can’t decide whether to attack him for being too restrictive or not restrictive enough (ie the laxness that led to a likely extension of restrictions).
Starmer and Labour will support further lockdowns and continually attack the alleged open borders but with little effect
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
It does seem to me that many are returning to normality and just ignoring the restrictions, other than face masks, and getting on with their lives
Indeed I was at a family 50th birthday party last week when most everyone shook hands and/ or hugged
Mind you everyone, apart from the children, had had at least one vaccination and many both
Been to a family get together today and hugging and handshakes are back. Almost all have had two jabs, the other three young enough to be virtually safe from serious Covid.
Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838 Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243
Fast forward
cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744 Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108
Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.
Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
This was talked about on the radio the other day.
Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.
Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
We are following that trajectory, so far.
More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
Those are the key words.
Of course
So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.
My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.
And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.
So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.
Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.
Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.
If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.
If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
To be clear, are you saying the government should say the final stage of unlocking is delayed until 19 July, but it will not be delayed again?
No, not remotely
And this is the problem, I think. At what point would you be happy to unlock? We don't have all that many anti-vaxxers, but I suspect we have enough to mean that for some people, it will always be too dangerous to unlock completely.
Data, not dates.
When it is obvious that the link between hospitalisation and behaviour has broken.
I personally would open everything, including overseas travel tomorrow, for anyone double jabbed and put everyone else back into strict lockdown and enforce it Chinese style.
We aren't even in lockdown. Let alone a permanent one. Let's keep some perspective.
Yes, it's not lockdown. But to treat what restrictions do exist as trivial as if its not an ongoing and very serious burden for many individuals or businesses is not keeping things in perspective either.
It may or may not be justified, but just because it is not lockdown doesn't mean it is nothing, that's perspective.
That 55% of adults are double vaxxed and 55% polled say "don't loosen restrictions", tells me that a lot of people are very comfortable with life at the moment, and really don't appreciate or understand extent of the headwinds downstream...
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
I think plenty of people will casually talk about us being shut down or locked down without it meeting official designations, it doesn't mean they or their fears are wrong or necessarily being done to mislead because of an imprecision of language.
Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838 Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243
Fast forward
cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744 Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108
Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.
Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
This was talked about on the radio the other day.
Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.
Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?
Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
They are not filled up.
But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
Yet you said this:
then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing
now having had your claim disproved you shift the goalposts onto NHS backlogs.
The NHS can collapse when staff take time off, finally after a year, when they are overloaded with non Covid patients trying to clear a backlog then there is another uptick in Covid again.
That is collapse of the NHS.
So you've gone from the hospitals filling up with covid patients to the NHS workers taking time off.
BTW what would you suggest we do come autumn when flu cases start rising ? Are we to lockdown the country for that as well ?
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Its continental innit....
I quite like it. Order by app just before your present pint is finished and a new one is at your table just as you are finishing.
The problem is the staff required. Pubs must be losing money. The prices will go up I guess.
Yeah. I hated queuing at the bar. Was rubbish at it. Don't miss it at all.
It also means I have found that if there are just two of you and your are deep into a chat there is no interruption while one goes to the bar and disappears for ten minutes waiting to be served.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
From the noise in the summer night at the moment, there's definitely a big party going on at the moment at a favourite pub near me, and i would be astonished if it is caused by a lot of people dutifully sitting at tables waiting patiently to be served.
One of the problems with the maintenance of restrictions, is that it is those businesses that "play by the rules" that end up suffering.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
I think plenty of people will casually talk about us being shut down or locked down without it meeting official designations, it doesn't mean they or their fears are wrong or necessarily being done to mislead because of an imprecision of language.
Except this is a "senior minister". I think this is more about pushing their agenda than a serious threat about being "shut down permanently".
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
To some extent we need to say what Johnson says on Monday. It might be a good way of an MP pressuring Johnson to reflect that in his comments.
But - bypassing the "permanent lockdown" element - the basic element of a narrowing window of ending restrictions before autumn and winter kick in seems very plausible to me. The scientists are not going to recommend anything like that in September/October pretty much regardless of where the numbers are at. Doesn't mean the politicians still couldn't go ahead anyway, but it's much less likely without that blessing.
So anything that pushes "freedom day" from mid-June to mid-July has got to take that context into account.
That 55% of adults are double vaxxed and 55% polled say "don't loosen restrictions", tells me that a lot of people are very comfortable with life at the moment, and really don't appreciate or understand extent of the headwinds downstream...
Actually that is a good point
Furlough needs to end as it is far too easy for many to either take a part time job or just save the difference on commuting and WFH
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
Doesn't mean they won't try.
And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
Of course it sounds plausible to you, it's what you think is going to happen. In the real world I think the chances of having a covid lockdown continuously for the next 6 months, 6 years, or 60 years, to be near nil.
Oh, it would result in complete societal and economic collapse eventually, but the Government has an awful lot of shit scared elderly supporters to keep it in office and a potentially enormous capacity to borrow more money.
Japan currently has a debt to GDP ratio in excess of 250%. If Sunak can keep borrowing up to that limit then an intermittent pattern of lockdown and partial release could be drawn out for many years.
There's no way that's going to happen, not if you consider what is going on at the moment in the US and the EU. Seems like there's a bit of a twitchiness that the final stage of the reopening plan, which never had dates set in stone, is being altered. It might mean a few more weeks of the last phase of restrictions, but I just don't buy this doom-mongering that it is the prelude to a never ending lockdown.
We aren't even in lockdown. Let alone a permanent one. Let's keep some perspective.
Yes, it's not lockdown. But to treat what restrictions do exist as trivial as if its not an ongoing and very serious burden for many individuals or businesses is not keeping things in perspective either.
It may or may not be justified, but just because it is not lockdown doesn't mean it is nothing, that's perspective.
Oh, I agree. I can genuinely see both sides of this argument. 4 weeks more of this is not ideal. But there has been some hyperbole.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
Doesn't mean they won't try.
And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
Of course it sounds plausible to you, it's what you think is going to happen. In the real world I think the chances of having a covid lockdown continuously for the next 6 months, 6 years, or 60 years, to be near nil.
Oh, it would result in complete societal and economic collapse eventually, but the Government has an awful lot of shit scared elderly supporters to keep it in office and a potentially enormous capacity to borrow more money.
Japan currently has a debt to GDP ratio in excess of 250%. If Sunak can keep borrowing up to that limit then an intermittent pattern of lockdown and partial release could be drawn out for many years.
There's no way that's going to happen, not if you consider what is going on at the moment in the US and the EU. Seems like there's a bit of a twitchiness that the final stage of the reopening plan, which never had dates set in stone, is being altered. It might mean a few more weeks of the last phase of restrictions, but I just don't buy this doom-mongering that it is the prelude to a never ending lockdown.
Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838 Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243
Fast forward
cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744 Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108
Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.
Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
This was talked about on the radio the other day.
Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.
Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?
Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
They are not filled up.
But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
Yet you said this:
then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing
now having had your claim disproved you shift the goalposts onto NHS backlogs.
The NHS can collapse when staff take time off, finally after a year, when they are overloaded with non Covid patients trying to clear a backlog then there is another uptick in Covid again.
That is collapse of the NHS.
So you've gone from the hospitals filling up with covid patients to the NHS workers taking time off.
BTW what would you suggest we do come autumn when flu cases start rising ? Are we to lockdown the country for that as well ?
I would suggest that we avoid a situation whereby the behaviour of the population does not lead to Covid infections having a material impact on the non Covid patients of the NHS.
Poor VDL, again shoved to the side of the photo...
Take the bleeding suits off. You're in Cornwall, it's a beautiful evening, you're having a beach barbecue at the Hidden Hut (a great place)
Suits??!
They’re not going to the Hidden Hut, the Hidden Hut is coming to them, as it were.
(My summer holiday last year was in the house just behind the Hidden Hut).
Where they eating? St Ives?
I've only ever had lunch at the Hidden Hut, but it was charming
I've heard that if you get lucky, and you get a warm sunny evening, then their suppertime beach barbecues are absolutely magical. I can believe it. The Roseland is a lovely part of the world
Lady Lady will you go With a twig of mistletoe to Ruan, Ruan Lanihorne?
The guy from the Hidden Hut has gone up to Carbis Bay to do a BBQ for them.
The suppertime barbecues are legendary but I think mostly off-season? Something of a treat for locals.
Portscatho is a great little beach and yes Roseland is fantastic - and convenient for St Mawes, St Just etc etc.
AND the G7 are gonna be entertained with sea shanties!
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
I think plenty of people will casually talk about us being shut down or locked down without it meeting official designations, it doesn't mean they or their fears are wrong or necessarily being done to mislead because of an imprecision of language.
Except this is a "senior minister". I think this is more about pushing their agenda than a serious threat about being "shut down permanently".
Obviously a minister leaking stuff is about pushing an agenda, but just because people are pushing agendas doesn't mean they automatically have no point, nor does it mean that they will have utterly precisely defined their terminology and a casual usage of language destroys any point they may or may not have.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
It does seem to me that many are returning to normality and just ignoring the restrictions, other than face masks, and getting on with their lives
Indeed I was at a family 50th birthday party last week when most everyone shook hands and/ or hugged
Mind you everyone, apart from the children, had had at least one vaccination and many both
Been to a family get together today and hugging and handshakes are back. Almost all have had two jabs, the other three young enough to be virtually safe from serious Covid.
The suggestion early on in the pandemic that Covid represented the end for handshakes for ever, was one of the bizarrest claims ever i thought. Allegedly serious people, "behavioural scientists" no less, saying things like that, was evidence enough for me that whilst we should take notice of experts, not everybody who puts themselves forward as an "expert", is one.
I mean after all, what did handshakes originally derive from/what was their purpose? To demonstrate that you weren't a threat, didn't see the other person as a threat, and were a sign of trust.
Of course they were going to come back in the aftermath/latter stages of a pandemic!
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
I think plenty of people will casually talk about us being shut down or locked down without it meeting official designations, it doesn't mean they or their fears are wrong or necessarily being done to mislead because of an imprecision of language.
Except this is a "senior minister". I think this is more about pushing their agenda than a serious threat about being "shut down permanently".
Obviously a minister leaking stuff is about pushing an agenda, but just because people are pushing agendas doesn't mean they automatically have no point, nor does it mean that they will have utterly precisely defined their terminology and a casual usage of language destroys any point they may or may not have.
My point is that it would be wise to consider who is saying it, as well as what is being said. "Anti-lockdown minister claims lockdown must end now or it will never end".... gee, what a surprise.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
are you one of the ones who predicted the vaccine would always be 2 months away ?
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
I can't imagine a world where the UK is the only major economy in a continuous lockdown. It just doesn't make any sense. If it isn't internal pressures that end it, external ones will.
That 55% of adults are double vaxxed and 55% polled say "don't loosen restrictions", tells me that a lot of people are very comfortable with life at the moment, and really don't appreciate or understand extent of the headwinds downstream...
This interview is a must-watch. Former MP Dr Richard Taylor is the perfect example of a supporter of Zero Covid and indefinite lockdowns. Starts at 18 mins 58 secs.
What I want to know is how the virus got from the Wuhan lab, ie the BSL-2 CDC facility where they did much of the research, all the way across the city to the market?
I mean, how could that happen?
What I love about the
That could be a photo of Croydon with Chinese place names turned on.
As cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716
And about 1,000 other examples.
No, that’s the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a BSL-4 lab about 10km from the market (I think)
Since the plague began, the scientists in Wuhan have admitted much of their work was done in lower level BSL-2 ancillary labs
‘Much of Shi’s work on gain-of-function in coronaviruses was performed at the BSL2 safety level, as is stated in her publications and other documents. She has said in an interview with Science magazine that “[t]he coronavirus research in our laboratory is conducted in BSL-2 or BSL-3 laboratories.”’
One of these is alleged to be the Wuhan ‘CDC’. I happily confess I can’t prove that’s it in the photo. But I have seen several maps which show the BSL-2 and 3 labs are much nearer the market
As ever, you bluster loudly but you’re embarrassingly ill-informed
Sorry: there is literally ZERO evidence that that photo is of either the wet market or the the Wuhan lab.
It's a photo. With circles on it. Providence unknown.
One of the circles says "Wuhan CDC". Which doesn't exist,
The other says "Market".
And I'm the one ill informed?
Are you high?
You didn’t even do your ‘ten seconds of research’ to find out if there were multiple labs in Wuhan. There are. Oh dear.
You don't even know that photo is from Wuhan.
The only thing we know for sure is that "Wuhan CDC" doesn't exist.
And I'm the one not doing my research?
I HAVE done my research. I’m 99% sure that is a map of central Wuhan. And it correctly identifies the Wuhan wet market
However the circled building appears to be a Ramen bar. Which, I confess, does not sound like an evil bioweapon lab
That said, right next door is a research hospital. Who knows. Where are the other, lower level labs? It’s quite an important detail
I did the same search on Google
Two things: 1. That's a seafood market, so are we sure that's the alleged wet market, anyway? And 2. If you look around the images, the hospital is in the middle of some really fancy office and hotel space.
The Wuhan Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (Chinese: 武汉华南海鲜批发市场),[1][2] also known as the Huanan Seafood Market[3] (Huanan means 'South China'), was a live animal and seafood market in Jianghan District, Wuhan City, the capital of Hubei Province in Central China.
The market became widely known worldwide after being identified as the 'Ground Zero'…
So, it's down to a simple question: was "Wuhan CDC" (which doesn't exist) actually the lab, or was it a noodle bar?
Well, it looks like I’m right and you’re wrong. AGAIN
Check this thread, it links to a live Baidu map which confirms the other red circle is basically correct. That’s the Wuhan Jianghan Disease Prevention and Control Centre
‘The location on the map linked on project-evidence.github.io has changed since the screenshot. Chinese locations have not been accurate on Google Maps in the past, due to restrictions. The correct walking distance between Huanan Seafood Market and Wuhan CDC is most likely 0.5km.’
Has he proved the lab theory now then? - With that photo?
No, he had not proven it.
Proof - either way - may never come, especially if it was a low level escape, and was covered up.
If the virus is discovered in the wild, that would clearly be a big boost for the wild theory. But remember it took six years to find the specific host of SARS and we've never found the hosts of either HIV/AIDS or Ebola.
Also, even if it is found in the wild, it doesn't mean that it wasn't captured and then escaped.
If it leaked from a lab does it follow that the Chinese government know it did and are hence covering up? Or might they be in the dark too?
Nothing is certain, and Robert is right, I certainly did not prove the virus came from the lab, that would make me the internet hero of the century (or the guy who started World War 3), all I proved is that there is a laboratory near the wet market, which might have been a BSL2 centre of risky corona gain-of-function research
What was interesting in that whole exchange was how a smart guy, Robert Smithson, leapt immediately to the conclusion that I had posted some insane Trumpite conspiratorial bollocks, which needed just ten seconds Googling to refute - only for ten seconds googling to show I was completely right, and he was embarrassingly wrong, on all counts
Why this reaction? I think the original gaslighting by the scientific/political Establishment: "lab leak" is mad, Trump believes it, all viruses come from animals naturally - has been notably successful. It has duped many people
The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
I don't particularly give a fuck what you think, so you can save yourself the energy expended in typing long boring narcissistic paragraphs, in future
I do care what Robert Smithson thinks because he is clever and it is bewildering he is confounded by this. Also, he can ban me
That's told me.
But make sure you process my points.
I did, later. See below
Oh so you did. That was nice of you. Many wouldn't have bothered with a take 2. Says a lot. ☺
On my intelligence though - I did go to university. So I shouldn't be marked down as some sort of slowcoach.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
It does seem to me that many are returning to normality and just ignoring the restrictions, other than face masks, and getting on with their lives
Indeed I was at a family 50th birthday party last week when most everyone shook hands and/ or hugged
Mind you everyone, apart from the children, had had at least one vaccination and many both
Been to a family get together today and hugging and handshakes are back. Almost all have had two jabs, the other three young enough to be virtually safe from serious Covid.
The suggestion early on in the pandemic that Covid represented the end for handshakes for ever, was one of the bizarrest claims ever i thought. Allegedly serious people, "behavioural scientists" no less, saying things like that, was evidence enough for me that whilst we should take notice of experts, not everybody who puts themselves forward as an "expert", is one.
I mean after all, what did handshakes originally derive from/what was their purpose? To demonstrate that you weren't a threat, didn't see the other person as a threat, and were a sign of trust.
Of course they were going to come back in the aftermath/latter stages of a pandemic!
Have they come back? I have shaken one or two hands in 18 months. They're not back
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
I hate it. Going to the bar is the whole point of a pub IMO.
Not being able to stand at a pub bar turns the pub into a cafe.
I suppose pubs might be divided into different rooms with people allowed to stand at the bar in one room, that could be called the bar, while in another room a waiter takes orders and brings the drinks, that could be called the saloon. The saloon would charge higher prices for the extra service.
Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.
Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.
"I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.
"And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."
Johnson will doubtless bluff his way through this, but he had two problems.
First- his coalition of libertarians and pensioners is split on the issue.
Second- the reasons for this pickle really come back to him. Who does he blame?
Is the coalition split? Literally all the 80+ people I know (mother, aunts, godparents etc) don't give a monkey's about infection risk, and never did even before we knew vaccines were a possibility, and are desperate to be allowed to see people again.
Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838 Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243
Fast forward
cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744 Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108
Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.
Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
This was talked about on the radio the other day.
Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.
Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?
Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
They are not filled up.
But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
Yet you said this:
then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing
now having had your claim disproved you shift the goalposts onto NHS backlogs.
The NHS can collapse when staff take time off, finally after a year, when they are overloaded with non Covid patients trying to clear a backlog then there is another uptick in Covid again.
That is collapse of the NHS.
So you've gone from the hospitals filling up with covid patients to the NHS workers taking time off.
BTW what would you suggest we do come autumn when flu cases start rising ? Are we to lockdown the country for that as well ?
I would suggest that we avoid a situation whereby the behaviour of the population does not lead to Covid infections having a material impact on the non Covid patients of the NHS.
It would be so much more convenient if the population's behaviour was controlled to the requirements of the NHS.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
I think plenty of people will casually talk about us being shut down or locked down without it meeting official designations, it doesn't mean they or their fears are wrong or necessarily being done to mislead because of an imprecision of language.
Except this is a "senior minister". I think this is more about pushing their agenda than a serious threat about being "shut down permanently".
Obviously a minister leaking stuff is about pushing an agenda, but just because people are pushing agendas doesn't mean they automatically have no point, nor does it mean that they will have utterly precisely defined their terminology and a casual usage of language destroys any point they may or may not have.
My point is that it would be wise to consider who is saying it, as well as what is being said. "Anti-lockdown minister claims lockdown must end now or it will never end".... gee, what a surprise.
That's already factored in. Who doesn't take into consideration who is saying something?
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
I think plenty of people will casually talk about us being shut down or locked down without it meeting official designations, it doesn't mean they or their fears are wrong or necessarily being done to mislead because of an imprecision of language.
Except this is a "senior minister". I think this is more about pushing their agenda than a serious threat about being "shut down permanently".
Obviously a minister leaking stuff is about pushing an agenda, but just because people are pushing agendas doesn't mean they automatically have no point, nor does it mean that they will have utterly precisely defined their terminology and a casual usage of language destroys any point they may or may not have.
My point is that it would be wise to consider who is saying it, as well as what is being said. "Anti-lockdown minister claims lockdown must end now or it will never end".... gee, what a surprise.
That's already factored in. Who doesn't take into consideration who is saying something?
Are you sure? We seem to be the only one discussing it, everyone else seems to have accepted it as gospel.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Every boozer near me has different rules.
One has bookings and table service.
Another has strictly no bookings and table serve.
A third has strictly no bookings and bar service only.
A fourth has an app.
Bizarrely, the app is best, once you have signed up. Choose your drinks then Apple Pay, barmaid arrives at your table with the drinks in a couple of minutes.
That said, I still prefer a bar (except when really busy, like today).
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
I can't imagine a world where the UK is the only major economy in a continuous lockdown. It just doesn't make any sense. If it isn't internal pressures that end it, external ones will.
This is the endgame that I've previously posited. If Johnson won't stand up to the bonkers faction of the scientists then the only way we get out of this is through economic ruin. The Tory supporter base will back Johnson in all of his nonsense until the state pension system and the hospitals implode through lack of cash. And then they won't.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
I can't imagine a world where the UK is the only major economy in a continuous lockdown. It just doesn't make any sense. If it isn't internal pressures that end it, external ones will.
No, but there many options between that and 'open now no matter what', and there is a lot of harm that could arise if we are too slow to do so. That it will happen 'eventually' is not a reason to not worry at all.
For me the thing is the powers being utilised are intrusive and excessive and so the presumption should always be to get rid of them and reopen, unless absolutely justified, the case needs to be treated beyond reasonable doubt not just more likely than not, when we are at the stage we are at present at least.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
I prefer to go to the bar so I can see what ales are on, rather than someone who drinks fizzy pink wine assuming I will want a pint of lager.
What? I have never had a waiting person make any assumption about what I want to drink, and where are you getting the fizzy pink wine from? If not a completely gratuitous assumption?
The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
I didn't mean it that way. What I mean is the evidence as a whole - not simply the microscopics - needs to be incompatible with the more prosaic natural origin as well as compatible with a leak from a lab. If it's compatible with both a leak remains the outsider.
That 55% of adults are double vaxxed and 55% polled say "don't loosen restrictions", tells me that a lot of people are very comfortable with life at the moment, and really don't appreciate or understand extent of the headwinds downstream...
This interview is a must-watch. Former MP Dr Richard Taylor is the perfect example of a supporter of Zero Covid and indefinite lockdowns. Starts at 18 mins 58 secs.
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
If 80% of the population are double jabbed, they won’t accept any further restrictions or any wait until April. Utterly non sensical when other major economies are now opening up again at pace
Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838 Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243
Fast forward
cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744 Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108
Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.
Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
This was talked about on the radio the other day.
Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.
Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?
Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
They are not filled up.
But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
Yet you said this:
then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing
now having had your claim disproved you shift the goalposts onto NHS backlogs.
The NHS can collapse when staff take time off, finally after a year, when they are overloaded with non Covid patients trying to clear a backlog then there is another uptick in Covid again.
That is collapse of the NHS.
So you've gone from the hospitals filling up with covid patients to the NHS workers taking time off.
BTW what would you suggest we do come autumn when flu cases start rising ? Are we to lockdown the country for that as well ?
I would suggest that we avoid a situation whereby the behaviour of the population does not lead to Covid infections having a material impact on the non Covid patients of the NHS.
The NHS backlog is going to be with us for years. And will be under severe strain whether it's a few dozen Covid patients this summer, or a few dozen (or more?!) flu patients in winter (and many are predicting that there is reason to expect a particularly bad flu season this year).
But this is not a new thing. Senior NHS figures releasing statistics about how NHS beds are running at 90%+ capacity (in a good year!) is normal fare for pretty much any winter (or certainly any cold winter) you care to name. Partly it is simply a statement of fact, and partly it is an appear to more money. But the NHS is almost designed to run at near full capacity. It probably hasn't routinely maintained significant spare capacity full its entire 75 year existence. It expands and contracts to levels of demand, and schedules operations around expectations of peaks and troughs. Therefore you've got to take with a pinch of salt claims that even relatively small numbers of Covid patients presenting will tip the service over the edge.
That's not to say that the backlog isn't a big problem. Nor the stress placed on the workforce in some hotspots (but not everywhere). But a bit of an uplift in Covid cases really isn't going to make the difference that some say. In fact trying to come up with innovative ways to combat existing social distancing requirements placed on hospitals etc would probably be far more beneficial.
The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
Yes, quite
But to make it clear, there are now four hypotheses, and here's the probability I give to them:
1. Natural Zoonosis - the trad "wet market" theory - 20%
2. Accidental but natural "lab leak" - a worker gets bitten in Yunnan, bat blood is spilled in a Wuhan lab - 60%
3. Accidental lab leak of an altered virus - a spillage means a gain-of-function bug escapes into the world - 19.9%
4. Deliberate leak of a bioweapon - 0.1%
And for 2 and 3 - if true - what is the chance the Chinese government know as opposed to don't know?
We aren't even in lockdown. Let alone a permanent one. Let's keep some perspective.
Indeed, tomorrow I'm off to see some friends, have a meal in a restaurant, then go to the cinema.
Is there any recent example of a group of people whipping themselves into a frenzy over largely imagined oppressions and restrictions by an indifferent administration?
Though tbf the threat of being prevented from having your toast just how you like it is pretty outrageous.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
It does seem to me that many are returning to normality and just ignoring the restrictions, other than face masks, and getting on with their lives
Indeed I was at a family 50th birthday party last week when most everyone shook hands and/ or hugged
Mind you everyone, apart from the children, had had at least one vaccination and many both
Almost nobody was wearing a mask in the pubs I visited today.
Does anyone actually know the rules on this anyway? I seem to recall that you had to wear the mask going to the toilet and coming in and out of the pub but not when at the table drinking.
My local is a mixed bag: some in masks on way to toilets or whatever, others not.
I guess Susan Michie would call the police but the rest of us just get on with our evening.
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
That means no theatres or nightclubs for another year. So they all go bust, for starters, with 100,000s of jobs, and incalculable cultural destruction
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Its continental innit....
I quite like it. Order by app just before your present pint is finished and a new one is at your table just as you are finishing.
The problem is the staff required. Pubs must be losing money. The prices will go up I guess.
Order by app ???
I can't be arsed to do anything like that.
At least the places I've been don't seem to have put the prices up - paid £2.90 today for a pint of Tetley.
I wouldn't actually say it's obvious that ordering by app is staff intensive and/or costly. Given that the market leader in app ordering, in fact the only real innovator in doing so, for years before the pandemic was... Wetherspoons. Because actually they probably realised that queuing at bars was hugely financially detrimental to a business model which wasn't just helped, but relied upon high sale volumes. Time spent waiting at bars, is clearly time not spent drinking, and delays subsequent reordering.
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
Not fair on working age people with savings - pensioners have an inflation busting triple lock that needs to go
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
are you one of the ones who predicted the vaccine would always be 2 months away ?
Christ, I don't remember TBF. Quite possibly. I know I did despair of the vaccines ever getting us out of this during that evil, desperate Winter we all lived through. I probably changed my mind in about March time, when I finally became convinced that they were going to work, and work very well.
However, the Prime Minister and the cranks advising him seem to have convinced themselves that the vaccines are worthless (because we've not jabbed twenty year olds, or anti-vaxxers, or schoolchildren, or whatever today's excuse is,) so I'm back to the doom mindset of January again.
You can already see the next excuse coming - the cases will probably still be climbing in a few weeks, which will be all the excuse that is needed, regardless of what happens to the hospitals - and a few weeks after that we'll be near the end of Summer and the entire panoply of Autumnal excuses will be rolled out as well.
To believe that this won't happen, you need to believe that the lockdown ultras won't keep screaming for restrictions indefinitely, and that the Prime Minister won't keep constantly caving in to their demands. The notion that they won't, and he won't, seems highly questionable, to put it mildly.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Every boozer near me has different rules.
One has bookings and table service.
Another has strictly no bookings and table serve.
A third has strictly no bookings and bar service only.
A fourth has an app.
Bizarrely, the app is best, once you have signed up. Choose your drinks then Apple Pay, barmaid arrives at your table with the drinks in a couple of minutes.
That said, I still prefer a bar (except when really busy, like today).
I don't like apps. When I am invited to use an App I say 'I am too old' and they let me have table service!
I find the smaller independent pubs are more flexible in this area but I have successfully dealt with larger chains where the staff don't think but follow the corporate policy. I have been out around 40 nights in the 9 weeks since Stage 2 ie from where pubs were open outside.
🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September
Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.
Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
Absolutely spot on as regards what will happen this autumn. We will need to save the NHS yet again apparently and there are all those boosters to deliver and there is a new variant etc etc etc. holo The absolute worst of all this is that Julia Hartley Brewer will be proved right.
Yes. The symbolism of 21st June was important. The middle of the year. Midsummer. It's over. Now enjoy your freedom.
Now that is swept aside, a promise broken. By late July we are well into summer, and school holidays begin, and hmmm why not just keep a few restrictions, Autumn is just 5 weeks ago, then stricter lockdown as the colder weather bites in late August, and so we will sail into 2022 without ever actually unlockdowning, two whole fucking years. You can see the psychology whirring away already, with hideous communists like Susan Michie seizing their chance to order our lives
We have to resist. I shan't obey a single law after midsummer
That will be time consuming and potentially hard to co-ordinate. Still. Good to have a hobby.
lol yes, possibly hyperbole
But also possibly true, if I simply leave the country, because of our endless lockdown. That is an option, and then I won't be obeying a single British law
Me neither. I am actively looking at amber countries to go to and if and when I return I shall either give a false address or tell them to fuck off over testing.
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
If 80% of the population are double jabbed, they won’t accept any further restrictions or any wait until April. Utterly non sensical when other major economies are now opening up again at pace
You underestimate how many people do not feel currently impeded in their daily lives, and see opening up further and removal of the guidance to WFH as representing a decline in their quality of life.
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
If 80% of the population are double jabbed, they won’t accept any further restrictions or any wait until April. Utterly non sensical when other major economies are now opening up again at pace
Won't they? Folk have been remarkably obedient up until now. And even if individuals rebel in private, the businesses will be forced to comply or be hit with huge fines or shut down.
Actually, come the Autumn when the SAGE panic scream amplifier is turned up to eleven, a lot of them will likely be shut down anyway. By yet another full lockdown.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
It does seem to me that many are returning to normality and just ignoring the restrictions, other than face masks, and getting on with their lives
Indeed I was at a family 50th birthday party last week when most everyone shook hands and/ or hugged
Mind you everyone, apart from the children, had had at least one vaccination and many both
Been to a family get together today and hugging and handshakes are back. Almost all have had two jabs, the other three young enough to be virtually safe from serious Covid.
The suggestion early on in the pandemic that Covid represented the end for handshakes for ever, was one of the bizarrest claims ever i thought. Allegedly serious people, "behavioural scientists" no less, saying things like that, was evidence enough for me that whilst we should take notice of experts, not everybody who puts themselves forward as an "expert", is one.
I mean after all, what did handshakes originally derive from/what was their purpose? To demonstrate that you weren't a threat, didn't see the other person as a threat, and were a sign of trust.
Of course they were going to come back in the aftermath/latter stages of a pandemic!
Well I hope that we can soon get rid of this ridiculous elbow bumping. A dignified Namaste style greeting is so much better.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Its continental innit....
I quite like it. Order by app just before your present pint is finished and a new one is at your table just as you are finishing.
The problem is the staff required. Pubs must be losing money. The prices will go up I guess.
Order by app ???
I can't be arsed to do anything like that.
At least the places I've been don't seem to have put the prices up - paid £2.90 today for a pint of Tetley.
I wouldn't actually say it's obvious that ordering by app is staff intensive and/or costly. Given that the market leader in app ordering, in fact the only real innovator in doing so, for years before the pandemic was... Wetherspoons. Because actually they probably realised that queuing at bars was hugely financially detrimental to a business model which wasn't just helped, but relied upon high sale volumes. Time spent waiting at bars, is clearly time not spent drinking, and delays subsequent reordering.
My experience of Spoons is that there is a massive queue at the bar because they have too few staff pouring pints. So how does an app improve that?
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
Not fair on working age people with savings - pensioners have an inflation busting triple lock that needs to go
State Pension should only be increased by CPI. I have always said that here.
The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
Yes, quite
But to make it clear, there are now four hypotheses, and here's the probability I give to them:
1. Natural Zoonosis - the trad "wet market" theory - 20%
2. Accidental but natural "lab leak" - a worker gets bitten in Yunnan, bat blood is spilled in a Wuhan lab - 60%
3. Accidental lab leak of an altered virus - a spillage means a gain-of-function bug escapes into the world - 19.9%
4. Deliberate leak of a bioweapon - 0.1%
And for 2 and 3 - if true - what is the chance the Chinese government know as opposed to don't know?
For 4 it's obviously 100% vs 0%.
Tricky, but in both cases I'd say it's highly likely the Chinese government knows, and also that they knew quite early on
The evidence that they know now is the enormous cover-up, the policing of the mine, the destruction of the Wuhan database, the lies about the viruses they studied, the lies about early infections, the obsession with crushing the lab leak hypothesis, the death or disappearance of so many crucial witnesses, the refusal to allow any external inquiry, the use of manipulative figures like Daszak, and so and so on
The evidence they knew early on is less overwhelming, but still fairly impressive: the extremely early vaccine proposals, the suppression of dissenting voices from the start, and - most of all - the amazingly successful Chinese reaction to the virus, once they locked down Hubei
This is a nation of 1.4bn people, the cradle of a terrible pathogen, and only 4000 died, unlike 4 million around the world? Really?
Maybe it's true, and their stats don't lie, and they just did a brilliant job. Why and how? - because they knew early on what they were dealing with: because their scientists studied it or even created it in the lab
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Every boozer near me has different rules.
One has bookings and table service.
Another has strictly no bookings and table serve.
A third has strictly no bookings and bar service only.
A fourth has an app.
Bizarrely, the app is best, once you have signed up. Choose your drinks then Apple Pay, barmaid arrives at your table with the drinks in a couple of minutes.
That said, I still prefer a bar (except when really busy, like today).
I don't like apps. When I am invited to use an App I say 'I am too old' and they let me have table service!
I find the smaller independent pubs are more flexible in this area but I have successfully dealt with larger chains where the staff don't think but follow the corporate policy. I have been out around 40 nights in the 9 weeks since Stage 2 ie from where pubs were open outside.
I don't think the NHS is prepared for the scale of liver problems that is going to hit them over the winter and in coming years.
Boris Johnson was left infuriated by Macron when he suggested in their talks Northern Ireland was not part of the UK. A UK Government source tells the story below....
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
It does seem to me that many are returning to normality and just ignoring the restrictions, other than face masks, and getting on with their lives
Indeed I was at a family 50th birthday party last week when most everyone shook hands and/ or hugged
Mind you everyone, apart from the children, had had at least one vaccination and many both
Been to a family get together today and hugging and handshakes are back. Almost all have had two jabs, the other three young enough to be virtually safe from serious Covid.
The suggestion early on in the pandemic that Covid represented the end for handshakes for ever, was one of the bizarrest claims ever i thought. Allegedly serious people, "behavioural scientists" no less, saying things like that, was evidence enough for me that whilst we should take notice of experts, not everybody who puts themselves forward as an "expert", is one.
I mean after all, what did handshakes originally derive from/what was their purpose? To demonstrate that you weren't a threat, didn't see the other person as a threat, and were a sign of trust.
Of course they were going to come back in the aftermath/latter stages of a pandemic!
Well I hope that we can soon get rid of this ridiculous elbow bumping. A dignified Namaste style greeting is so much better.
Yes, I never got why the awkward ungainlyness of the former caught on rather than the latter.
Why invent a stupid new greeting when other ones already exist? It's like coming up with neologisms for things that already have cool words for them.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Its continental innit....
I quite like it. Order by app just before your present pint is finished and a new one is at your table just as you are finishing.
The problem is the staff required. Pubs must be losing money. The prices will go up I guess.
Order by app ???
I can't be arsed to do anything like that.
At least the places I've been don't seem to have put the prices up - paid £2.90 today for a pint of Tetley.
I wouldn't actually say it's obvious that ordering by app is staff intensive and/or costly. Given that the market leader in app ordering, in fact the only real innovator in doing so, for years before the pandemic was... Wetherspoons. Because actually they probably realised that queuing at bars was hugely financially detrimental to a business model which wasn't just helped, but relied upon high sale volumes. Time spent waiting at bars, is clearly time not spent drinking, and delays subsequent reordering.
My experience of Spoons is that there is a massive queue at the bar because they have too few staff pouring pints. So how does an app improve that?
It's deliberate. They under-resource the bar to encourage people to order on the app. The staff servicing people ordering on the app aren't the same staff.
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
If 80% of the population are double jabbed, they won’t accept any further restrictions or any wait until April. Utterly non sensical when other major economies are now opening up again at pace
Won't they? Folk have been remarkably obedient up until now. And even if individuals rebel in private, the businesses will be forced to comply or be hit with huge fines or shut down.
Actually, come the Autumn when the SAGE panic scream amplifier is turned up to eleven, a lot of them will likely be shut down anyway. By yet another full lockdown.
Far too obedient, to my mind, to rules which should never have been made laws. Liberties thrown away for a little fear; and too many still not out of the habit.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
Cats and dogs can spread it and must be vaccinated before anymore opening up. And all cows must go before end of 2022 to save the ozone. Piano’s are racist as the white keys dominate the black ones.
Boris Johnson was left infuriated by Macron when he suggested in their talks Northern Ireland was not part of the UK. A UK Government source tells the story below....
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
If 80% of the population are double jabbed, they won’t accept any further restrictions or any wait until April. Utterly non sensical when other major economies are now opening up again at pace
You underestimate how many people do not feel currently impeded in their daily lives, and see opening up further and removal of the guidance to WFH as representing a decline in their quality of life.
Some of them will find their quality of life declines a lot more when their jobs are outsourced to somewhere 10% of the cost.
The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
Yes, quite
But to make it clear, there are now four hypotheses, and here's the probability I give to them:
1. Natural Zoonosis - the trad "wet market" theory - 20%
2. Accidental but natural "lab leak" - a worker gets bitten in Yunnan, bat blood is spilled in a Wuhan lab - 60%
3. Accidental lab leak of an altered virus - a spillage means a gain-of-function bug escapes into the world - 19.9%
4. Deliberate leak of a bioweapon - 0.1%
Without going into ins & outs of it, must say that "Bat Blood Spilled" would make a GREAT novel or movie title.
The length of restrictions appears to be expanding exponentially...late last week it was 2 weeks, yesterday 4 weeks, now a year....
The length of restrictions is inversely proportional to the seriousness of the situation.
The Government might see it in their interests to "overbrief" the length of restrictions to allow them to sweeten the pill when they come in shorter. But with the advantage that they've laid the groundwork should they implement further extensions.
Looks like Boris needs to present a realistic situation to the nation.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
If 80% of the population are double jabbed, they won’t accept any further restrictions or any wait until April. Utterly non sensical when other major economies are now opening up again at pace
You underestimate how many people do not feel currently impeded in their daily lives, and see opening up further and removal of the guidance to WFH as representing a decline in their quality of life.
Some of them will find their quality of life declines a lot more when their jobs are outsourced to somewhere 10% of the cost.
Yeah but they don't think about that. All that matters is life seems good at the moment. Just like they aren't aware particularly of noises from employers about ending London weighting etc...
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
I can't imagine a world where the UK is the only major economy in a continuous lockdown. It just doesn't make any sense. If it isn't internal pressures that end it, external ones will.
Restrictions last until the money runs out.
Because the restrictions are stopping more people from doing what they don't want to do than stopping people from doing what they want to do.
Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."
(Telegraph)
Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
No, but semi permanent restrictions of the 'abundance of caution' kind, is.
Except that isn't what the source is claiming, hence my doubts surrounding the story in general. What better way to make your case that re-opening must be done "on schedule" than to say it will never otherwise happen. People seem to have taken it at face value without giving it a second thought.
We've given it plenty of thought.
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated 2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations 3. Children must be vaccinated 4. Children must also have their second doses 5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September 6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!! 28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave. 29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates) 30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible 31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse 32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year 33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable... 34. ...and then to everybody else 35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies. 36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground 37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
I can't imagine a world where the UK is the only major economy in a continuous lockdown. It just doesn't make any sense. If it isn't internal pressures that end it, external ones will.
Restrictions last until the money runs out.
Because the restrictions are stopping more people from doing what they don't want to do than stopping people from doing what they want to do.
So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?
Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.
But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
Every boozer near me has different rules.
One has bookings and table service.
Another has strictly no bookings and table serve.
A third has strictly no bookings and bar service only.
A fourth has an app.
Bizarrely, the app is best, once you have signed up. Choose your drinks then Apple Pay, barmaid arrives at your table with the drinks in a couple of minutes.
That said, I still prefer a bar (except when really busy, like today).
I don't like apps. When I am invited to use an App I say 'I am too old' and they let me have table service!
I find the smaller independent pubs are more flexible in this area but I have successfully dealt with larger chains where the staff don't think but follow the corporate policy. I have been out around 40 nights in the 9 weeks since Stage 2 ie from where pubs were open outside.
I don't think the NHS is prepared for the scale of liver problems that is going to hit them over the winter and in coming years.
That is most relevant point, obsession with the Covid skirmish ignoring the ticking time bomb resulting in the genocide.
The war was oh so jolly at first, Joe Wicks kept nation fit as a fiddle, every garden was was a show garden, and there was no cursing commute anymore.
But we are not fit, without proper social interaction we are not living our lives, and we have forgot: if you want happiness you need to set the ruddy alarm, get out there, and earn it.
The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
Yes, quite
But to make it clear, there are now four hypotheses, and here's the probability I give to them:
1. Natural Zoonosis - the trad "wet market" theory - 20%
2. Accidental but natural "lab leak" - a worker gets bitten in Yunnan, bat blood is spilled in a Wuhan lab - 60%
3. Accidental lab leak of an altered virus - a spillage means a gain-of-function bug escapes into the world - 19.9%
4. Deliberate leak of a bioweapon - 0.1%
And for 2 and 3 - if true - what is the chance the Chinese government know as opposed to don't know?
For 4 it's obviously 100% vs 0%.
Tricky, but in both cases I'd say it's highly likely the Chinese government knows, and also that they knew quite early on
The evidence that they know now is the enormous cover-up, the policing of the mine, the destruction of the Wuhan database, the lies about the viruses they studied, the lies about early infections, the obsession with crushing the lab leak hypothesis, the death or disappearance of so many crucial witnesses, the refusal to allow any external inquiry, the use of manipulative figures like Daszak, and so and so on
The evidence they knew early on is less overwhelming, but still fairly impressive: the extremely early vaccine proposals, the suppression of dissenting voices from the start, and - most of all - the amazingly successful Chinese reaction to the virus, once they locked down Hubei
This is a nation of 1.4bn people, the cradle of a terrible pathogen, and only 4000 died, unlike 4 million around the world? Really?
Maybe it's true, and their stats don't lie, and they just did a brilliant job. Why and how? - because they knew early on what they were dealing with: because their scientists studied it or even created it in the lab
Right. Ok. But the last time we exchanged on this you advanced the following as strong evidence that the natural origin was unlikely - that China had absolutely and genuinely busted a gut trying to find animal zero and had come up empty handed.
So, my question - if they know it leaked from a lab why would they be doing that? They'd know it was futile.
The corporation is alleged to have been pushing to bar GB News from accessing footage of public events via a "pooling" system run by the country's three main broadcasters.
The move would leave the new channel unable to broadcast many major events where there is only space for one camera.
The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
Yes, quite
But to make it clear, there are now four hypotheses, and here's the probability I give to them:
1. Natural Zoonosis - the trad "wet market" theory - 20%
2. Accidental but natural "lab leak" - a worker gets bitten in Yunnan, bat blood is spilled in a Wuhan lab - 60%
3. Accidental lab leak of an altered virus - a spillage means a gain-of-function bug escapes into the world - 19.9%
4. Deliberate leak of a bioweapon - 0.1%
And for 2 and 3 - if true - what is the chance the Chinese government know as opposed to don't know?
For 4 it's obviously 100% vs 0%.
Tricky, but in both cases I'd say it's highly likely the Chinese government knows, and also that they knew quite early on
The evidence that they know now is the enormous cover-up, the policing of the mine, the destruction of the Wuhan database, the lies about the viruses they studied, the lies about early infections, the obsession with crushing the lab leak hypothesis, the death or disappearance of so many crucial witnesses, the refusal to allow any external inquiry, the use of manipulative figures like Daszak, and so and so on
The evidence they knew early on is less overwhelming, but still fairly impressive: the extremely early vaccine proposals, the suppression of dissenting voices from the start, and - most of all - the amazingly successful Chinese reaction to the virus, once they locked down Hubei
This is a nation of 1.4bn people, the cradle of a terrible pathogen, and only 4000 died, unlike 4 million around the world? Really?
Maybe it's true, and their stats don't lie, and they just did a brilliant job. Why and how? - because they knew early on what they were dealing with: because their scientists studied it or even created it in the lab
They locked down more than Hubei of course. My ex's family lived on a fairly obscure city on the south coast thousands of miles from Wuhan, locked down (and I mean properly locked down, not of the half arsed UK version) from... late Jan 20 for a few months.
Whether that's evidence of a cover up, or just a competant response based on experience with SARs, I wouldn't like to say.
Comments
Hence the fact that so many have already been destroyed by the restrictions, and so many more will fold when the next lockdown is imposed.
Indeed as I just posted we are mainly getting on with our lives and I expect many more are doing the same
The government's strategy has been that it should be easier to fly to and from India or South Africa or Brazil than it should be to have a round of golf or walk around Sheffield botanical gardens.
It may or may not be justified, but just because it is not lockdown doesn't mean it is nothing, that's perspective.
When you can't go any further than the gate, that is lockdown.
BTW what would you suggest we do come autumn when flu cases start rising ? Are we to lockdown the country for that as well ?
One of the problems with the maintenance of restrictions, is that it is those businesses that "play by the rules" that end up suffering.
But - bypassing the "permanent lockdown" element - the basic element of a narrowing window of ending restrictions before autumn and winter kick in seems very plausible to me. The scientists are not going to recommend anything like that in September/October pretty much regardless of where the numbers are at. Doesn't mean the politicians still couldn't go ahead anyway, but it's much less likely without that blessing.
So anything that pushes "freedom day" from mid-June to mid-July has got to take that context into account.
Furlough needs to end as it is far too easy for many to either take a part time job or just save the difference on commuting and WFH
I can genuinely see both sides of this argument. 4 weeks more of this is not ideal.
But there has been some hyperbole.
Maybe goes down better IF you're muching on toasted brie & warm marsh mellows (or visa versa) AND washing it down with hot buttered rum? Like the G7?
I can't be arsed to do anything like that.
At least the places I've been don't seem to have put the prices up - paid £2.90 today for a pint of Tetley.
I mean after all, what did handshakes originally derive from/what was their purpose? To demonstrate that you weren't a threat, didn't see the other person as a threat, and were a sign of trust.
Of course they were going to come back in the aftermath/latter stages of a pandemic!
The excuses:
1. Not enough adults have been vaccinated
2. Not enough adults have had both vaccinations
3. Children must be vaccinated
4. Children must also have their second doses
5. We must monitor the impact of schools coming back in September
6 - 27. NEW VARIANTS!!!!!!
28. NHS staff are burned out and need leave. A lot of leave.
29. NHS staff need time to catch up with the non-Covid backlog (many years, according to estimates)
30. The cold weather in the Autumn will make the virus more transmissible
31. The NHS can't cope with flu and Covid at the same time and will collapse
32. Immunity will start to wane in those jabbed earlier in the year
33. We need to start giving boosters to the old and vulnerable...
34. ...and then to everybody else
35. And finally... people (especially children) have been in an unnaturally clean environment for so long that their immunity to an entire panoply of other infectious diseases will have waned, so we have to keep the restrictions for all eternity or else half of us will die the moment they are binned. Especially babies. The NHS will sink under a mountain of dead babies.
36. Oh, and the vaccines aren't 100% effective, so if we let the restrictions go at any time in the future ever there will be a tsunami wave of Covid and all the hospitals will burn to the ground
37. If you don't agree with all of this, you're basically a mass murderer, hate our beloved NHS, and therefore deserve to die a slow, painful, horrible death
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QACdTbI44nk
On my intelligence though - I did go to university. So I shouldn't be marked down as some sort of slowcoach.
I suppose pubs might be divided into different rooms with people allowed to stand at the bar in one room, that could be called the bar, while in another room a waiter takes orders and brings the drinks, that could be called the saloon. The saloon would charge higher prices for the extra service.
No progression from Stage 3 before 1 September.
Possibly not before 1 April 2022 and the implementation of booster measures.
But we have to stop government handouts and limit it to those who really need it. There are those who have made billions out of government handouts. Not fair on pensioners getting low rates on NSandI!
One has bookings and table service.
Another has strictly no bookings and table serve.
A third has strictly no bookings and bar service only.
A fourth has an app.
Bizarrely, the app is best, once you have signed up. Choose your drinks then Apple Pay, barmaid arrives at your table with the drinks in a couple of minutes.
That said, I still prefer a bar (except when really busy, like today).
For me the thing is the powers being utilised are intrusive and excessive and so the presumption should always be to get rid of them and reopen, unless absolutely justified, the case needs to be treated beyond reasonable doubt not just more likely than not, when we are at the stage we are at present at least.
That's it in a nutshell. All costs.
But this is not a new thing. Senior NHS figures releasing statistics about how NHS beds are running at 90%+ capacity (in a good year!) is normal fare for pretty much any winter (or certainly any cold winter) you care to name. Partly it is simply a statement of fact, and partly it is an appear to more money. But the NHS is almost designed to run at near full capacity. It probably hasn't routinely maintained significant spare capacity full its entire 75 year existence. It expands and contracts to levels of demand, and schedules operations around expectations of peaks and troughs. Therefore you've got to take with a pinch of salt claims that even relatively small numbers of Covid patients presenting will tip the service over the edge.
That's not to say that the backlog isn't a big problem. Nor the stress placed on the workforce in some hotspots (but not everywhere). But a bit of an uplift in Covid cases really isn't going to make the difference that some say. In fact trying to come up with innovative ways to combat existing social distancing requirements placed on hospitals etc would probably be far more beneficial.
For 4 it's obviously 100% vs 0%.
Though tbf the threat of being prevented from having your toast just how you like it is pretty outrageous.
My local is a mixed bag: some in masks on way to toilets or whatever, others not.
I guess Susan Michie would call the police but the rest of us just get on with our evening.
Fuck This Shit
However, the Prime Minister and the cranks advising him seem to have convinced themselves that the vaccines are worthless (because we've not jabbed twenty year olds, or anti-vaxxers, or schoolchildren, or whatever today's excuse is,) so I'm back to the doom mindset of January again.
You can already see the next excuse coming - the cases will probably still be climbing in a few weeks, which will be all the excuse that is needed, regardless of what happens to the hospitals - and a few weeks after that we'll be near the end of Summer and the entire panoply of Autumnal excuses will be rolled out as well.
To believe that this won't happen, you need to believe that the lockdown ultras won't keep screaming for restrictions indefinitely, and that the Prime Minister won't keep constantly caving in to their demands. The notion that they won't, and he won't, seems highly questionable, to put it mildly.
I find the smaller independent pubs are more flexible in this area but I have successfully dealt with larger chains where the staff don't think but follow the corporate policy. I have been out around 40 nights in the 9 weeks since Stage 2 ie from where pubs were open outside.
Actually, come the Autumn when the SAGE panic scream amplifier is turned up to eleven, a lot of them will likely be shut down anyway. By yet another full lockdown.
The evidence that they know now is the enormous cover-up, the policing of the mine, the destruction of the Wuhan database, the lies about the viruses they studied, the lies about early infections, the obsession with crushing the lab leak hypothesis, the death or disappearance of so many crucial witnesses, the refusal to allow any external inquiry, the use of manipulative figures like Daszak, and so and so on
The evidence they knew early on is less overwhelming, but still fairly impressive: the extremely early vaccine proposals, the suppression of dissenting voices from the start, and - most of all - the amazingly successful Chinese reaction to the virus, once they locked down Hubei
This is a nation of 1.4bn people, the cradle of a terrible pathogen, and only 4000 died, unlike 4 million around the world? Really?
Maybe it's true, and their stats don't lie, and they just did a brilliant job. Why and how? - because they knew early on what they were dealing with: because their scientists studied it or even created it in the lab
So aiming for zero covid, just not very good at it.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1403828667055329281?s=21
Why invent a stupid new greeting when other ones already exist? It's like coming up with neologisms for things that already have cool words for them.
And all cows must go before end of 2022 to save the ozone.
Piano’s are racist as the white keys dominate the black ones.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9680085/British-head-science-funding-body-Wellcome-Trust-accused-chilling-bid-stifle-debate.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9680137/SIR-GRAHAM-BRADY-no-excuse-delay-liberty.html
I'll put him down as a maybe...
Because the restrictions are stopping more people from doing what they don't want to do than stopping people from doing what they want to do.
The war was oh so jolly at first, Joe Wicks kept nation fit as a fiddle, every garden was was a show garden, and there was no cursing commute anymore.
But we are not fit, without proper social interaction we are not living our lives, and we have forgot: if you want happiness you need to set the ruddy alarm, get out there, and earn it.
So, my question - if they know it leaked from a lab why would they be doing that? They'd know it was futile.
The move would leave the new channel unable to broadcast many major events where there is only space for one camera.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/12/bbc-accused-attempting-shut-gb-11th-hour/
SADDDD.....
Whether that's evidence of a cover up, or just a competant response based on experience with SARs, I wouldn't like to say.