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The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer – politicalbetting
The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Andy Burnham is riding high at the moment. The latest Ipsos MORI polling on who “has what it takes to be a good PM” had the Mayor of Greater Manchester with better net ratings than either BoJo or Sunak. He was on a net plus 11% with Sunak on a net plus 7% and Johnson on a net plus 2.
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If he really wanted to get back into the Commons, a way would be found.
You could have linked the second point to Starmer’s recent declaration that Labour’s policy is to allow self identification on gender.
I was going to say that the big problem is, as anyone round here will tell you, that he’s complete rubbish.
However, I realised that hasn’t been a recent barrier to high office so I can’t further fault you.
Lecturing and hectoring in a skirt or a different accent is not going to make a difference.
I think Burnham has had a goodish pandemic, particularly recently. Most people in charge have, its an inevitable effect of doing things and lots of media attention. But he didn't really shine in the Commons before. King of the north looks a better bet for him to me.
The Con shares are remarkably static
England’s is certainly York.
Anyway, if Labour really believe in self-ID without any sort of medical diagnosis, Starmer could call himself a woman this afternoon. He'd still be useless.
Boris could then trump him by claiming to be a woman too and, hey presto, the Tories would have their third woman leader.
Just shows what a crock of shit self-ID is.
More seriously Burnham's proposals about the criminal justice system - while inspired by his concern for the Hillsborough families - have been lethally torn apart. He is another politician who thinks sentimentality is the only thing that should guide policy, in its own way as stupid and disastrous an approach as the current populist one. It'd be nice to have some politicians around who use their brains from time to time.
The result is that even when elites are talking about something that in substance has widespread support, like anti-racism, the use of this imported lexicon can make the message feel jarring, alienating, and a little bit pathetic, as if we can no longer reflect on our society, or have our own game, without borrowing from - or literally confusing ourselves with - America.
He was an MP for 16 years though. Does he want to go back ?
Clearly the best option for Labour but not 7-2 as the header points out
You're right! But a bit older.
Winchester second
Then meh!
This reflects a vacuum of ideas.
Glasgow is the second city of the Empire...
Enjoy the football.....But safely....!!
And Toronto might have been in WW2.
If you see a furious middle aged woman swearing creatively at Boris in 3 languages while beating him round the head for, well, everything, that'll be me. I'll be calling you all as character witnesses at the trial.
Bye!
In diplomatic terms the G7 is a missed opportunity for the UK, but the issues there go beyond event management. The really significant diplomatic shift, the biggest for some years, is Biden's move to establish a new American world order and to bring the remaining liberal democracies into it. His scope is ambitious. A Transatlantic settlement would have been music to the ears of a previous UK administration but the UK burnt the transatlantic bridge role with Brexit. The key prospect for Biden's pitch is the EU with the UK somewhat sidelined.
On Covid measures, I mostly agree with @DavidL. We have to deal with the virus situation as it is, and not as we might hope it to be. I do think the vaccine risk assessments are sound, from what I have seen, and the UK vaccine rollout remains pretty good.
Anyway, there is far more danger in the pubs than at the game.
One thing I have learned from this pandemic is that making important decisions, where there are undeniable tradeoffs, is very hard.
Much of the abstract pontificating on this site is so far from the difficult realities of the situation, that it is almost comical.
However, when reality does bite then a collective wailing and crying occurs, as evidenced by many posts last night.
We could all, myself included, do with a little more humility in the face of this dreadful virus in the context of a globally connected world. There are no easy choices or decisions.
Cummings summed it up quite well: 'Who do we save?'
There are a whole number of reasons why, and you can sugar coat it as much are you like, but outside a handful of players, none would get near a men's semi-pro local league team.
Women's basketball is another example. They have pushed and pushed and pushed it in the US and nobody watches the WNBA because the standard is crap.
Then there is the other extreme, women's athletes, your average man could train morning, noon and night, and still never compete against that standard.
The EU on the other hand..
(I’m from Canterbury and my Dad’s from York. This was not an academic dispute in our house)
Obvs it isn't going to happen but it is still an interesting question. Anyone know?
The leader and deputy leader of the Party shall be elected or re-elected from among Commons members of the PLP in accordance with procedural rule Chapter 4 Clause II below, at a Party conference convened in accordance with clause VI above. I
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/rulebook-2020.pdf#page8
I am though waiting for the moment when Biden says to the EU leaders 'Well, we appear to be in agreement, and Mr Johnson has signed up'. And they all say "We've got an agreement like that. And he reneged on it in 6 months.'
And good morning one and all.
And, although I'm sure Ms Cyclefree has gone, there is a pub ;locally where one of the senior staff has, apparently tested Covid-positive and it's meant many of the staff have to isolate, too. With the result that the pub has had to close.
A perfect example may be about to show itself - weddings. Originally told that a decision would be made at end of may to give extra warning. Fair enough, if June was still genuinely in the balance, that was delayed. Then all the mood music was increasing that June 21st would be delayed.
Despair!
But then, what's this? Consistent briefings for a number of days that even if June 21st was delayed, restrictions on weddings would definitely be lifted. This was widely shared, and no indication of any pushback on the suggestion from the Government that these briefing weren't pretty authoritative.
Hope!
And now today, more briefings. Weddings are off (or some sort of fudge about the limit being raised from 30 to 50 or something). Department of Health (?) have kyboshed the idea. Despair again.
And weddings are not even travel/foreign holidays. Despite the terrible messaging over that, at least there is always the reasonable response "everyone who books a holiday abroad knows they're taking a risk". But you can't hold up weddings for ever. They aren't one year's "bit of fun". OK you could say the important bit of a wedding only requires 4 people. But clearly it's not like that in reality. These are genuinely things which effect the rest of a person's life. And some people have had to go through this several times over the course of the last year.
And for a year he's been unable to do them.
Its easy to see why he wanted to go to India so much.
He really, really, REALLY wanted to put on his Khasi of Kalabar stuff on.
Has he done anything apart from demanding more vaccine ?
Which would probably be wasted - it would be better to increase vaccination in districts two back from the epicentre to create a firebreak.
However OGH is right that for the moment Starmer is safe as Burnham is not an MP and Starmer is still seen as a better potential PM by voters as opposed to those who are Labour MPs. For example 24% think Starmer would make a good PM compared to just 18% who think the same of Angela Rayner and only 15% of voters think Lisa Nandy would make a good PM so the idea Labour needs a female leader is absurd as neither of the main female contenders to lead Labour are very popular, indeed on a net rating too Rayner and Nandy are both on a poor -14% .
Having a female leader does not mean they will automatically be very electable as Hillary Clinton, Theresa May, Julia Gillard and Kim Campbell will tell you. Occasionally there are strong leaders who are femaie and election winners like Thatcher and Merkel and Ardern but none of the current crop in Labour come near them
There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to the House of Commons, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2.
Constitution of the Conservative Party, section 10 https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf
*although in practice since they have only had four overall leaders in the Lords - Derby, Beaconsfield, Salisbury and Home - and three of them were consecutively leader in the nineteenth century, while the fourth was elected on the understanding he would disclaim his peerage, in practice I doubt if this does more than recognise reality.
I just do not see Andy Burnham as next Labour leader but then I do not see anyone in Labour at present as a better alternative to Starmer, but then that is a very low bar
I notice the Queen is at Windsor just now reviewing her birthday parade
No matter your attitude to the Queen, she is quite an exceptional lady.
I doubt many 95 year olds would be able to have undertaken all her commitments in Cornwall yesterday, and then be standing in Windsor, less than 12 hours later
eg Height of release for fast bowlers, strength for hitting 6s. Access to more and better resources / training will go a chunk of the way, of course.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jun/11/facebook-ads-turning-point-usa-rally-forge
So how well would a woman who could bowl as well as Warne or Murali do.
Labour warned about red list issue in February. Not genius superforecasters -> the opposition.
It wants both the UK and EU in that group and is not interested in taking sides between them as long as the UK keeps an open border in Ireland
Indeed our next doors neighbour's daughter is getting married in 3 weeks and they have similar arrangements, though the Chapel on Anglesey is very small and the limit is 16 for the service
Both weddings are delayed from last summer and in both cases they just want to get married, and have accepted the restrictions
Basically there are probably many sports where women with the right physical attributes could theoretically develop individual skills to a high level to get close-ish to the levels of those skills of the game (looking at individual skills in isolation). But it would always be very much at the outlier of the spectrum. You can conclude anything with the inclusion of freaks and outliers.
I just do not see a pathway for him.
Not, bluntly, that I see any credible Labour leader at the moment. I know full well how much you despise Starmer but there is a reason why he’s leader.
ON: 411 (+46)
LAB: 154 (-48)
SNP: 51 (+3)
LD: 10 (-1)
Others: 24
https://leantossup.ca/uk-westminster/
NE projection has Con at 23 seats, Labour at 6. (Wansbeck, Tynemouth, Newcastle N, Blaydon, N Durham, Jarrow, Sunderland*3 (all with 84%+ certainty atm), City of Durham, Easington, Hartlepool, Stockton N all Con gains)
Wales has Con at 22, Lab at 14, PC at 4 (with gains being Newports, Torfaen, Islywn, Neath, Gower, Llanelli, Alyn)
Net 5 losses for Cons in Midlands/South/London
Notable other seats (note that Shad Home Sec is MP for Torfaen) falling include Milliband, Rayner, Nandy, John Healey (SSoS Defence), Jonathan Reynolds (SSoS DWP), Cat Smith (SSoS Young people), Yvette Cooper.
By my count, of the 26 Shad Cab MPs from outside of London, about 10 of them would lose their seats if these results happened.
C&A:
Con: 49%
LD: 19%
Lab: 15%
Grn: 12%
B&S
Con: 49.5%
Lab: 37%
Grn: 6%
I must say, I've never understood this. Surely you want the best person as your candidate for the most important job in the country, not somebody who happens to have the right genitalia?
Anyway, if Starmer really wants a female leader, there are numerous clinics who could help him out.
Her average is roughly comparable to that of Joel Garner. Who bowled at around 95mph from a height of 6 ft 8 inches.
Equally, the fact that sport is played with less physical intensity doesn’t necessarily mean it is less good. The key to entertainment is that there must be a competition. Ideally, of course, competition of the very highest standard, but truthfully, I don’t think I would last long against Perry’s bowling!
There may well be other reasons the number of outliers would remain low, I was just noting that while very fit, and some players being very large and fast in a way even female outliers are unlikely to be, it is a sport where people are or have been great whilst not being Male outliers either.
If its a comparison between a man and a woman and the majority think the man is best that sounds fair enough.
If nine times out of ten, they prefer the man, maybe the majority are not that good at selecting who is actually best, unless it can be clearly shown men are better at leading countries than women. So the best person for the job may not be the preferred usually male candidate.
Not sure how true it is but heard a few times that countries led by women have had better responses to the covid crisis.
https://twitter.com/colinbraziergbn/status/1401346349795217409?s=21
To even hope to get close to competing in high level men’s sport, women would need this. Men can succeed in men’s sport by excelling in one area, whilst surviving with average male characteristics (and some hard work/training) in others. For women it wouldn’t be enough to just excel in one. Average women characteristics plus training would be enough in all the other areas.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/rachael-heyhoe-flint-trophy-sarah-taylor-signs-for-northern-diamonds-in-response-to-wicketkeeping-crisis-1265899
At mid 70s, you had to be either super accurate or make it bend like a banana.
And for one thing more, I will be blaming the Government for seeding this delay. Yes, I can accept that the way the hospitalisations in the under-55s are marching up with the cases from a week earlier causes a genuine issue - but we wouldn’t be here if we’d added India to the red list when Pakistan and Bangladesh were added.
20,000 people - hell, The Government could have put them up in hotels for the isolation period at a hundred quid a night and paid their salaries for a fortnight and still had change from 30 million pounds.
We’d be 4-7 weeks further left against Delta iterations-wise. That would mean zero risk to the unlocking schedule; cases and hospitalisations would be at record lows and only just levelling off. If that.
By the time we got to the current situation, we’d be first-dosing teenagers and second-dosing under-thirties, and Delta would have been suffocated in the cradle.
I found that fascinating from a bunch of people who are really not political at all.