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The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer – politicalbetting

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  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Opinium finds only 35% of voters agree with players taking the knee before a game but a further 28% think they should be allowed to do it even if they disagree with it

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1403791681196068864?s=20

    It went down really well in St. Petersburg when Belgium did it, that's for sure.
    Were there a few boos?
    Closer to an entire (admittedly half-full) stadium full of whistles.
    I did say this the other day we are going to see this throughout the tournament.
    They should have done a massive ceremonial knee at the beginning and then ended it. This is the worst of all worlds, the symbolism mocked, the fans annoyed, the players deeply uneasy
    Given they had an opening ceremony, perhaps incorporating it there as a one-off might have been the way forward.

    At the England friendly it was a curious mix of applause and boos although on balance I thought the former won out. But at St Petersburg it seemed just outright hostility.
    Can you blame them?

    Russia had zero involvement in the Atlantic slave trade and has fuck all to do with American policing. It has its own racial problems but the idea Russian fans should respect "the death of George Floyd" and this ridiculous, increasingly-embarrassing piece of Anglo-Saxon virtue signalling, by millionaires, is absurd

    I'd certainly boo, if I was a St Petersburger
    There are also barely any black Russians, Russia is almost entirely white apart from a few Tatar Mongolians in the far East of the country.

    Hence Putin is so popular with white nationalists and racists
    Russians, even liberal ones are very much still at 1970s National Front level - they, and most other slavs I know, don’t really go in for western sensibilities when it comes to other people and I’m sure most of them if they gave it any thought at all would think George Floyd got his just deserts - I think for Russians thhe whole taking a knee thing is another example of everything in the west being depraved and weak.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923

    Leon said:

    Poor VDL, again shoved to the side of the photo...
    Take the bleeding suits off. You're in Cornwall, it's a beautiful evening, you're having a beach barbecue at the Hidden Hut (a great place)

    Suits??!
    They’re not going to the Hidden Hut, the Hidden Hut is coming to them, as it were.

    (My summer holiday last year was in the house just behind the Hidden Hut).
    Where they eating? St Ives?


    I've only ever had lunch at the Hidden Hut, but it was charming

    I've heard that if you get lucky, and you get a warm sunny evening, then their suppertime beach barbecues are absolutely magical. I can believe it. The Roseland is a lovely part of the world

    Lady Lady will you go
    With a twig of mistletoe
    to Ruan, Ruan Lanihorne?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Politico.com - Nevada meltdown gives Iowa hope of saving first-in-the-nation fame
    Nevada, which is seeking to leapfrog other early states during 2024 primary season, could hardly be making a worse case for itself.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/12/nevada-primary-493630

    Iowa is on the verge of losing its first-in-the-nation status after botching its Democratic presidential caucuses last year. But Nevada, which is bidding to supplant Iowa at the front of the 2024 primary calendar, could hardly be making a worse case for itself as a well-oiled alternative.

    On Friday — as the state’s Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, signed legislation aiming to move Nevada’s 2024 nominating contest in front of Iowa and New Hampshire — longstanding fissures within the state Democratic Party had just erupted. . . . .

    . . . Iowa Democrats glimpsed a flicker of hope. . . .

    This week, leaders of the Democratic Party in Washoe County, which includes Reno, moved to undercut the state party ahead of the midterm elections, voting to run the state’s 2022 coordinated campaign out of the county instead. The extraordinary move — which included statements of support from Sisolak, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Democratic state lawmakers, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Governors Association — came after a slate of Bernie Sanders allies endorsed by the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America won control of the state party, a blow to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s vaunted organizing machine in the swing state. . . .

    Nevada — or some other state — may still unseat Iowa. The effort in Nevada has been championed by Reid, who remains influential in national party politics. Regardless of the contretemps within the state party, one prominent Democratic Party official said, “Harry Reid is still Harry Reid.” . . .

    Reid said he doubted the DNC would penalize Nevada for any of its internal machinations as it considers the 2024 calendar. In addition, the state — not political parties — will run the primary, relying less on the organizational strength of any party apparatus. . . .

    “Nevada’s that kind of a state,” he said. “I’ve been to state party meetings where fist fights broke out, so we’re used to a little intrigue.”

    . . . . New Hampshire and Iowa have long fought off efforts by other states to leapfrog them. New Hampshire’s secretary of state, Bill Gardner, has said he will follow a state law that requires New Hampshire to hold its primary at least seven days before any “similar election” in another state. And Nagle said that, if necessary, Iowa will hold its caucuses ahead of the 2024 election “in July of 2023 if we have to.”

    For Iowans hoping to stave off another challenge to their first-in-the-nation status, the meltdown in Nevada is not a panacea. But even if it raises just a small level of doubt about Nevada in national Democrats’ minds, it could prove helpful to Iowa’s cause.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    What I want to know is how the virus got from the Wuhan lab, ie the BSL-2 CDC facility where they did much of the research, all the way across the city to the market?

    I mean, how could that happen?


    What I love about the

    That could be a photo of Croydon with Chinese place names turned on.
    As cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

    And about 1,000 other examples.
    No, that’s the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a BSL-4 lab about 10km from the market (I think)

    Since the plague began, the scientists in Wuhan have admitted much of their work was done in lower level BSL-2 ancillary labs


    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

    ‘Much of Shi’s work on gain-of-function in coronaviruses was performed at the BSL2 safety level, as is stated in her publications and other documents. She has said in an interview with Science magazine that “[t]he coronavirus research in our laboratory is conducted in BSL-2 or BSL-3 laboratories.”’

    One of these is alleged to be the Wuhan ‘CDC’. I happily confess I can’t prove that’s it in the photo. But I have seen several maps which show the BSL-2 and 3 labs are much nearer the market

    As ever, you bluster loudly but you’re embarrassingly ill-informed
    Sorry: there is literally ZERO evidence that that photo is of either the wet market or the the Wuhan lab.

    It's a photo. With circles on it. Providence unknown.

    One of the circles says "Wuhan CDC". Which doesn't exist,

    The other says "Market".


    And I'm the one ill informed?

    Are you high?
    You didn’t even do your ‘ten seconds of research’ to find out if there were multiple labs in Wuhan. There are. Oh dear.
    You don't even know that photo is from Wuhan.

    The only thing we know for sure is that "Wuhan CDC" doesn't exist.

    And I'm the one not doing my research?
    I HAVE done my research. I’m 99% sure that is a map of central Wuhan. And it correctly identifies the Wuhan wet market

    However the circled building appears to be a Ramen bar. Which, I confess, does not sound like an evil bioweapon lab

    That said, right next door is a research hospital. Who knows. Where are the other, lower level labs? It’s quite an important detail




    I did the same search on Google :smile:

    Two things: 1. That's a seafood market, so are we sure that's the alleged wet market, anyway? And 2. If you look around the images, the hospital is in the middle of some really fancy office and hotel space.
    Yes, it’s the same market

    Tsk, Robert. This took TEN SECONDS OF RESEARCH


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market

    The Wuhan Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (Chinese: 武汉华南海鲜批发市场),[1][2] also known as the Huanan Seafood Market[3] (Huanan means 'South China'), was a live animal and seafood market in Jianghan District, Wuhan City, the capital of Hubei Province in Central China.

    The market became widely known worldwide after being identified as the 'Ground Zero'…
    So, it's down to a simple question: was "Wuhan CDC" (which doesn't exist) actually the lab, or was it a noodle bar?
    Well, it looks like I’m right and you’re wrong. AGAIN

    Check this thread, it links to a live Baidu map which confirms the other red circle is basically correct. That’s the Wuhan Jianghan Disease Prevention and Control Centre


    ‘The location on the map linked on project-evidence.github.io has changed since the screenshot. Chinese locations have not been accurate on Google Maps in the past, due to restrictions. The correct walking distance between Huanan Seafood Market and Wuhan CDC is most likely 0.5km.’

    https://github.com/Project-Evidence/project-evidence.github.io/issues/14

    And yes, it exists. Check the affiliations at the end


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3
    Yes. It looks like you are right, and I am wrong.
    Has he proved the lab theory now then? - With that photo?
    No, he had not proven it.

    Proof - either way - may never come, especially if it was a low level escape, and was covered up.

    If the virus is discovered in the wild, that would clearly be a big boost for the wild theory. But remember it took six years to find the specific host of SARS and we've never found the hosts of either HIV/AIDS or Ebola.

    Also, even if it is found in the wild, it doesn't mean that it wasn't captured and then escaped.
    If it leaked from a lab does it follow that the Chinese government know it did and are hence covering up? Or might they be in the dark too?
    Nothing is certain, and Robert is right, I certainly did not prove the virus came from the lab, that would make me the internet hero of the century (or the guy who started World War 3), all I proved is that there is a laboratory near the wet market, which might have been a BSL2 centre of risky corona gain-of-function research

    What was interesting in that whole exchange was how a smart guy, Robert Smithson, leapt immediately to the conclusion that I had posted some insane Trumpite conspiratorial bollocks, which needed just ten seconds Googling to refute - only for ten seconds googling to show I was completely right, and he was embarrassingly wrong, on all counts


    Why this reaction? I think the original gaslighting by the scientific/political Establishment: "lab leak" is mad, Trump believes it, all viruses come from animals naturally - has been notably successful. It has duped many people
    The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
    Actually, my first reply to this was too dismissive

    Om a second reading I see that you are actually trying to open your mind and form a second opinion, you just express it in a long-winded way

    So, fair enough. Expand your horizons. Good for you. I did promise to be nicer on here, for a while!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    To be clear, are you saying the government should say the final stage of unlocking is delayed until 19 July, but it will not be delayed again?
  • tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    To be clear, are you saying the government should say the final stage of unlocking is delayed until 19 July, but it will not be delayed again?
    No, not remotely
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    kingbongo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Opinium finds only 35% of voters agree with players taking the knee before a game but a further 28% think they should be allowed to do it even if they disagree with it

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1403791681196068864?s=20

    It went down really well in St. Petersburg when Belgium did it, that's for sure.
    Were there a few boos?
    Closer to an entire (admittedly half-full) stadium full of whistles.
    I did say this the other day we are going to see this throughout the tournament.
    They should have done a massive ceremonial knee at the beginning and then ended it. This is the worst of all worlds, the symbolism mocked, the fans annoyed, the players deeply uneasy
    Given they had an opening ceremony, perhaps incorporating it there as a one-off might have been the way forward.

    At the England friendly it was a curious mix of applause and boos although on balance I thought the former won out. But at St Petersburg it seemed just outright hostility.
    Can you blame them?

    Russia had zero involvement in the Atlantic slave trade and has fuck all to do with American policing. It has its own racial problems but the idea Russian fans should respect "the death of George Floyd" and this ridiculous, increasingly-embarrassing piece of Anglo-Saxon virtue signalling, by millionaires, is absurd

    I'd certainly boo, if I was a St Petersburger
    There are also barely any black Russians, Russia is almost entirely white apart from a few Tatar Mongolians in the far East of the country.

    Hence Putin is so popular with white nationalists and racists
    Russians, even liberal ones are very much still at 1970s National Front level - they, and most other slavs I know, don’t really go in for western sensibilities when it comes to other people and I’m sure most of them if they gave it any thought at all would think George Floyd got his just deserts - I think for Russians thhe whole taking a knee thing is another example of everything in the west being depraved and weak.
    Yes, quite. Their attitudes on race and homosexuality are no secret, and they're not very pretty.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    I’m not happy about continuing at the level of restrictions we are at today, but if the consensus from the experts is that it will make a difference then I can stick it. We are no longer in lockdown, despite what some keep saying. I don’t believe we are risking a huge wave of hospitalisation because the vulnerable have been protected. The people going into hospital are less sick, less likely to need ventilation and are staying for shorter periods. The trajectory of in hospital numbers is absolutely not tracking September.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,444
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Latest poll from
    @OpiniumResearch

    Con 43% +1
    Lab 34% -2
    Green 7% +2
    Lib Dem 6 ±0
    10-11 Jun; change since 27-28 May

    Public want restrictions extended (54-37) according to that poll
    Stockholm syndrome lol
    54-37 is a lot closer than it used to be. Both sides could have equal support pretty soon.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    I’m not happy about continuing at the level of restrictions we are at today, but if the consensus from the experts is that it will make a difference then I can stick it. We are no longer in lockdown, despite what some keep saying. I don’t believe we are risking a huge wave of hospitalisation because the vulnerable have been protected. The people going into hospital are less sick, less likely to need ventilation and are staying for shorter periods. The trajectory of in hospital numbers is absolutely not tracking September.
    I agree, I think with all of that.

    Other than to say we are tracking Sept 2020 in that the growth in infections matches that period and the hospitalisations now if half that in 2020 per infection.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,444
    Embarrassing for Russia to get beaten by a team from a country with a population 15 times fewer than them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    To be clear, are you saying the government should say the final stage of unlocking is delayed until 19 July, but it will not be delayed again?
    No, not remotely
    And this is the problem, I think. At what point would you be happy to unlock? We don't have all that many anti-vaxxers, but I suspect we have enough to mean that for some people, it will always be too dangerous to unlock completely.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    I’m not happy about continuing at the level of restrictions we are at today, but if the consensus from the experts is that it will make a difference then I can stick it. We are no longer in lockdown, despite what some keep saying. I don’t believe we are risking a huge wave of hospitalisation because the vulnerable have been protected. The people going into hospital are less sick, less likely to need ventilation and are staying for shorter periods. The trajectory of in hospital numbers is absolutely not tracking September.
    I agree, I think with all of that.

    Other than to say we are tracking Sept 2020 in that the growth in infections matches that period and the hospitalisations now if half that in 2020 per infection.
    With the key bit that the hospitalisation are less sick, as confirmed by Chris hopson, of nhs providers. Not ideal, but giving someone some air through a nose tube is a lot better than sedating and ventilating.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    Andy_JS said:

    Embarrassing for Russia to get beaten by a team from a country with a population 15 times fewer than them.

    That's nothing, a few years ago we lost to a team with population 150 times fewer than us.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,934
    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    I’m not happy about continuing at the level of restrictions we are at today, but if the consensus from the experts is that it will make a difference then I can stick it. We are no longer in lockdown, despite what some keep saying. I don’t believe we are risking a huge wave of hospitalisation because the vulnerable have been protected. The people going into hospital are less sick, less likely to need ventilation and are staying for shorter periods. The trajectory of in hospital numbers is absolutely not tracking September.
    I agree, I think with all of that.

    Other than to say we are tracking Sept 2020 in that the growth in infections matches that period and the hospitalisations now if half that in 2020 per infection.
    With the key bit that the hospitalisation are less sick, as confirmed by Chris hopson, of nhs providers. Not ideal, but giving someone some air through a nose tube is a lot better than sedating and ventilating.
    and takes NHS staff away from treating non Covid patients, like my wife is is desperately waiting for an NHS op 18months on, in pain.

    Look at where I live, with some level of restrictions in place.

    Take away all restrictions and we are back in heavy lockdown in a couple of months for months and months, just as happened in Chile which ad high levels of vaccinations.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Just catching up after a great day out and about. Lots of pub gardens in the sunshine.

    Is the covid ‘cases’ curve flattening out a bit?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    I would like to reply to you but this crappy comment system is doing its random strop whereby the length of the response is flagged as too long, even when it isn't. Will post this then try to respond in a separate message...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,171

    Andy_JS said:

    Embarrassing for Russia to get beaten by a team from a country with a population 15 times fewer than them.

    That's nothing, a few years ago we lost to a team with population 150 times fewer than us.
    Suddenly, what's about to unfold at Edgbaston doesn't seem quite so bad. The ratio for that is only about 12, right?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    @ManchesterKurt

    This, presumably, assumes that the total number of patients in hospital keeps doubling and doubling and doubling, and that the pattern doesn't simply run up against the wall of the vaccinated this time. We are nowhere remotely near to where we were last March or September: the bulk of the country is not significantly affected, rising case numbers are expanding out of the main initial centres of infection only slowly, and both cases and hospitalisations in the areas that were worst affected initially are either already in decline or displaying signs of following suit. We can then add to that the fact that the protection of vaccination falls disproportionately upon the most vulnerable, and thus cases are skewed heavily towards younger age groups who are less liable to fall ill enough to need hospital care, and less liable to need prolonged and intensive treatment even when they get that far.

    The Government's modellers were all wrong about what happened earlier in the Spring and the evidence available at the moment suggests that they are catastrophising again now. The models are (often very bad) guesses - not facts, just speculation - and are given far too much credence. Instead, we need to go back to basics and ask where on Earth a tsunami wave of very sick people large enough to sink the entire healthcare system is meant to come from this time around, given that 56% of the adult population has now had both vaccine doses, 78% have had at least one, and these figures are skewed very heavily towards the JCVI Phase One individuals that were responsible, IIRC, for about 80% of all hospitalisations and 99% of all Covid deaths prior to the commencement of the vaccine programme. This means that most of the vulnerable will now be saved from serious illness, and chains of transmission in the community will be significantly disrupted as well - all whilst vaccinations carry on at a rate ot about half-a-million per day.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    (continued...)

    Even with slightly reduced effectiveness of the vaccines against Delta, the bulk of those made sick enough to need to go to hospital with Covid, and especially those needing intensive care and mechanical ventilation, will be amongst the minority of older individuals who have not received vaccination, or for whom the vaccines have not worked well. Firstly, it's hard to believe that enough of this minority is going to get ill *simultaneously* to bring down the hospitals (look what happened to Bolton,) especially with the disease spreading to new areas as slowly as it is. Secondly, I'm sorry to say that they've had their chips regardless: given that neither Zero Covid nor hard lockdown for all eternity are sustainable propositions, the disease will seek out and find them eventually.

    Consequently, the damage caused by continuing with NPIs exceeds that prevented by their use. Lockdown or lockdown lite will save very few lives in the medium term - and, most crucially, it is no longer needed to prevent the collapse of the hospitals, which was the sole reason given for introducing such measures in the first place. So they should end.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    To be clear, are you saying the government should say the final stage of unlocking is delayed until 19 July, but it will not be delayed again?
    No, not remotely
    And this is the problem, I think. At what point would you be happy to unlock? We don't have all that many anti-vaxxers, but I suspect we have enough to mean that for some people, it will always be too dangerous to unlock completely.
    Data, not dates.

    When it is obvious that the link between hospitalisation and behaviour has broken.

    I personally would open everything, including overseas travel tomorrow, for anyone double jabbed and put everyone else back into strict lockdown and enforce it Chinese style.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    Ben W. Ansell
    @benwansell
    0.85 correlation between Biden vote share and vaccine rate is Eyes. Can’t imagine there’s any relationship like this in UK (would guess in other direction because of age profile in voting Cons and in JCVI vaccine priority order)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    I’m not happy about continuing at the level of restrictions we are at today, but if the consensus from the experts is that it will make a difference then I can stick it. We are no longer in lockdown, despite what some keep saying. I don’t believe we are risking a huge wave of hospitalisation because the vulnerable have been protected. The people going into hospital are less sick, less likely to need ventilation and are staying for shorter periods. The trajectory of in hospital numbers is absolutely not tracking September.
    I agree, I think with all of that.

    Other than to say we are tracking Sept 2020 in that the growth in infections matches that period and the hospitalisations now if half that in 2020 per infection.
    With the key bit that the hospitalisation are less sick, as confirmed by Chris hopson, of nhs providers. Not ideal, but giving someone some air through a nose tube is a lot better than sedating and ventilating.
    and takes NHS staff away from treating non Covid patients, like my wife is is desperately waiting for an NHS op 18months on, in pain.

    Look at where I live, with some level of restrictions in place.

    Take away all restrictions and we are back in heavy lockdown in a couple of months for months and months, just as happened in Chile which ad high levels of vaccinations.
    I have tremendous sympathy for you and your wife. I hope her op happens soon.
    However, where I live in the sw there are currently 18 Covid patients in hospital in the entire region (Devon, Cornwall, wilts, Dorset, Bath, Bristol etc). It’s not easy justifying social distancing and masks round here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,033

    HYUFD said:

    Opinium finds only 35% of voters agree with players taking the knee before a game but a further 28% think they should be allowed to do it even if they disagree with it

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1403791681196068864?s=20

    It went down really well in St. Petersburg when Belgium did it, that's for sure.
    Were there a few boos?
    Closer to an entire (admittedly half-full) stadium full of whistles.
    I did say this the other day we are going to see this throughout the tournament. The Eastern European fans in particular are just not on board with it.
    A lot of racism there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458

    Andy_JS said:

    Embarrassing for Russia to get beaten by a team from a country with a population 15 times fewer than them.

    That's nothing, a few years ago we lost to a team with population 150 times fewer than us.
    Suddenly, what's about to unfold at Edgbaston doesn't seem quite so bad. The ratio for that is only about 12, right?
    Yup.

    The financial discrepancy between English football and Icelandic football made the result even more painful.

    I saw a stat at the time which said the the 3 year Premier League TV rights value was about 80% of Iceland's GDP.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,721

    Andy_JS said:

    Embarrassing for Russia to get beaten by a team from a country with a population 15 times fewer than them.

    That's nothing, a few years ago we lost to a team with population 150 times fewer than us.
    Five million kiwis say hello.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    Just catching up after a great day out and about. Lots of pub gardens in the sunshine.

    Is the covid ‘cases’ curve flattening out a bit?

    Oliver Johnson
    @BristOliver
    ·
    5h
    Two days better data are definitely not enough to draw any kind of firm conclusions, but estimated R number is down a tad, and just a tantalising sense that the tennis ball is starting to bend? (Far too early to tell any more than that, or even if it's just a blip)

    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403730386665025537
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458


    Ben W. Ansell
    @benwansell
    0.85 correlation between Biden vote share and vaccine rate is Eyes. Can’t imagine there’s any relationship like this in UK (would guess in other direction because of age profile in voting Cons and in JCVI vaccine priority order)

    I did point out recently that has huge betting implications.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/19/we-need-to-talk-about-antivaxxer-gopers/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    I'm skeptical, given the source. What better way to make your case for it to happen now than dire warnings it will never happen otherwise?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    What a f*cking surprise. Here we go...

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,171

    Just catching up after a great day out and about. Lots of pub gardens in the sunshine.

    Is the covid ‘cases’ curve flattening out a bit?

    A bit, yes (not increasing as fast). But that may be the effect of school holidays +10 days.

    Meanwhile, the pavement cafe thing has noticeably taken off in this bit of suburban Romford. Hope it sticks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,033
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    What I want to know is how the virus got from the Wuhan lab, ie the BSL-2 CDC facility where they did much of the research, all the way across the city to the market?

    I mean, how could that happen?


    What I love about the

    That could be a photo of Croydon with Chinese place names turned on.
    As cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

    And about 1,000 other examples.
    No, that’s the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a BSL-4 lab about 10km from the market (I think)

    Since the plague began, the scientists in Wuhan have admitted much of their work was done in lower level BSL-2 ancillary labs


    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

    ‘Much of Shi’s work on gain-of-function in coronaviruses was performed at the BSL2 safety level, as is stated in her publications and other documents. She has said in an interview with Science magazine that “[t]he coronavirus research in our laboratory is conducted in BSL-2 or BSL-3 laboratories.”’

    One of these is alleged to be the Wuhan ‘CDC’. I happily confess I can’t prove that’s it in the photo. But I have seen several maps which show the BSL-2 and 3 labs are much nearer the market

    As ever, you bluster loudly but you’re embarrassingly ill-informed
    Sorry: there is literally ZERO evidence that that photo is of either the wet market or the the Wuhan lab.

    It's a photo. With circles on it. Providence unknown.

    One of the circles says "Wuhan CDC". Which doesn't exist,

    The other says "Market".


    And I'm the one ill informed?

    Are you high?
    You didn’t even do your ‘ten seconds of research’ to find out if there were multiple labs in Wuhan. There are. Oh dear.
    You don't even know that photo is from Wuhan.

    The only thing we know for sure is that "Wuhan CDC" doesn't exist.

    And I'm the one not doing my research?
    I HAVE done my research. I’m 99% sure that is a map of central Wuhan. And it correctly identifies the Wuhan wet market

    However the circled building appears to be a Ramen bar. Which, I confess, does not sound like an evil bioweapon lab

    That said, right next door is a research hospital. Who knows. Where are the other, lower level labs? It’s quite an important detail




    I did the same search on Google :smile:

    Two things: 1. That's a seafood market, so are we sure that's the alleged wet market, anyway? And 2. If you look around the images, the hospital is in the middle of some really fancy office and hotel space.
    Yes, it’s the same market

    Tsk, Robert. This took TEN SECONDS OF RESEARCH


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market

    The Wuhan Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (Chinese: 武汉华南海鲜批发市场),[1][2] also known as the Huanan Seafood Market[3] (Huanan means 'South China'), was a live animal and seafood market in Jianghan District, Wuhan City, the capital of Hubei Province in Central China.

    The market became widely known worldwide after being identified as the 'Ground Zero'…
    So, it's down to a simple question: was "Wuhan CDC" (which doesn't exist) actually the lab, or was it a noodle bar?
    Well, it looks like I’m right and you’re wrong. AGAIN

    Check this thread, it links to a live Baidu map which confirms the other red circle is basically correct. That’s the Wuhan Jianghan Disease Prevention and Control Centre


    ‘The location on the map linked on project-evidence.github.io has changed since the screenshot. Chinese locations have not been accurate on Google Maps in the past, due to restrictions. The correct walking distance between Huanan Seafood Market and Wuhan CDC is most likely 0.5km.’

    https://github.com/Project-Evidence/project-evidence.github.io/issues/14

    And yes, it exists. Check the affiliations at the end


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3
    Yes. It looks like you are right, and I am wrong.
    Has he proved the lab theory now then? - With that photo?
    No, he had not proven it.

    Proof - either way - may never come, especially if it was a low level escape, and was covered up.

    If the virus is discovered in the wild, that would clearly be a big boost for the wild theory. But remember it took six years to find the specific host of SARS and we've never found the hosts of either HIV/AIDS or Ebola.

    Also, even if it is found in the wild, it doesn't mean that it wasn't captured and then escaped.
    If it leaked from a lab does it follow that the Chinese government know it did and are hence covering up? Or might they be in the dark too?
    Nothing is certain, and Robert is right, I certainly did not prove the virus came from the lab, that would make me the internet hero of the century (or the guy who started World War 3), all I proved is that there is a laboratory near the wet market, which might have been a BSL2 centre of risky corona gain-of-function research

    What was interesting in that whole exchange was how a smart guy, Robert Smithson, leapt immediately to the conclusion that I had posted some insane Trumpite conspiratorial bollocks, which needed just ten seconds Googling to refute - only for ten seconds googling to show I was completely right, and he was embarrassingly wrong, on all counts


    Why this reaction? I think the original gaslighting by the scientific/political Establishment: "lab leak" is mad, Trump believes it, all viruses come from animals naturally - has been notably successful. It has duped many people
    The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
    I don't particularly give a fuck what you think, so you can save yourself the energy expended in typing long boring narcissistic paragraphs, in future

    I do care what Robert Smithson thinks because he is clever and it is bewildering he is confounded by this. Also, he can ban me
    That's told me.

    But make sure you process my points.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    What I want to know is how the virus got from the Wuhan lab, ie the BSL-2 CDC facility where they did much of the research, all the way across the city to the market?

    I mean, how could that happen?


    What I love about the

    That could be a photo of Croydon with Chinese place names turned on.
    As cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

    And about 1,000 other examples.
    No, that’s the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a BSL-4 lab about 10km from the market (I think)

    Since the plague began, the scientists in Wuhan have admitted much of their work was done in lower level BSL-2 ancillary labs


    https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

    ‘Much of Shi’s work on gain-of-function in coronaviruses was performed at the BSL2 safety level, as is stated in her publications and other documents. She has said in an interview with Science magazine that “[t]he coronavirus research in our laboratory is conducted in BSL-2 or BSL-3 laboratories.”’

    One of these is alleged to be the Wuhan ‘CDC’. I happily confess I can’t prove that’s it in the photo. But I have seen several maps which show the BSL-2 and 3 labs are much nearer the market

    As ever, you bluster loudly but you’re embarrassingly ill-informed
    Sorry: there is literally ZERO evidence that that photo is of either the wet market or the the Wuhan lab.

    It's a photo. With circles on it. Providence unknown.

    One of the circles says "Wuhan CDC". Which doesn't exist,

    The other says "Market".


    And I'm the one ill informed?

    Are you high?
    You didn’t even do your ‘ten seconds of research’ to find out if there were multiple labs in Wuhan. There are. Oh dear.
    You don't even know that photo is from Wuhan.

    The only thing we know for sure is that "Wuhan CDC" doesn't exist.

    And I'm the one not doing my research?
    I HAVE done my research. I’m 99% sure that is a map of central Wuhan. And it correctly identifies the Wuhan wet market

    However the circled building appears to be a Ramen bar. Which, I confess, does not sound like an evil bioweapon lab

    That said, right next door is a research hospital. Who knows. Where are the other, lower level labs? It’s quite an important detail




    I did the same search on Google :smile:

    Two things: 1. That's a seafood market, so are we sure that's the alleged wet market, anyway? And 2. If you look around the images, the hospital is in the middle of some really fancy office and hotel space.
    Yes, it’s the same market

    Tsk, Robert. This took TEN SECONDS OF RESEARCH


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market

    The Wuhan Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (Chinese: 武汉华南海鲜批发市场),[1][2] also known as the Huanan Seafood Market[3] (Huanan means 'South China'), was a live animal and seafood market in Jianghan District, Wuhan City, the capital of Hubei Province in Central China.

    The market became widely known worldwide after being identified as the 'Ground Zero'…
    So, it's down to a simple question: was "Wuhan CDC" (which doesn't exist) actually the lab, or was it a noodle bar?
    Well, it looks like I’m right and you’re wrong. AGAIN

    Check this thread, it links to a live Baidu map which confirms the other red circle is basically correct. That’s the Wuhan Jianghan Disease Prevention and Control Centre


    ‘The location on the map linked on project-evidence.github.io has changed since the screenshot. Chinese locations have not been accurate on Google Maps in the past, due to restrictions. The correct walking distance between Huanan Seafood Market and Wuhan CDC is most likely 0.5km.’

    https://github.com/Project-Evidence/project-evidence.github.io/issues/14

    And yes, it exists. Check the affiliations at the end


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3
    Yes. It looks like you are right, and I am wrong.
    Has he proved the lab theory now then? - With that photo?
    No, he had not proven it.

    Proof - either way - may never come, especially if it was a low level escape, and was covered up.

    If the virus is discovered in the wild, that would clearly be a big boost for the wild theory. But remember it took six years to find the specific host of SARS and we've never found the hosts of either HIV/AIDS or Ebola.

    Also, even if it is found in the wild, it doesn't mean that it wasn't captured and then escaped.
    If it leaked from a lab does it follow that the Chinese government know it did and are hence covering up? Or might they be in the dark too?
    Nothing is certain, and Robert is right, I certainly did not prove the virus came from the lab, that would make me the internet hero of the century (or the guy who started World War 3), all I proved is that there is a laboratory near the wet market, which might have been a BSL2 centre of risky corona gain-of-function research

    What was interesting in that whole exchange was how a smart guy, Robert Smithson, leapt immediately to the conclusion that I had posted some insane Trumpite conspiratorial bollocks, which needed just ten seconds Googling to refute - only for ten seconds googling to show I was completely right, and he was embarrassingly wrong, on all counts


    Why this reaction? I think the original gaslighting by the scientific/political Establishment: "lab leak" is mad, Trump believes it, all viruses come from animals naturally - has been notably successful. It has duped many people
    The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.
    I don't particularly give a fuck what you think, so you can save yourself the energy expended in typing long boring narcissistic paragraphs, in future

    I do care what Robert Smithson thinks because he is clever and it is bewildering he is confounded by this. Also, he can ban me
    That's told me.

    But make sure you process my points.
    I did, later. See below
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    Did some of us PB yesterday evening not warn that a month's delay to 21st June means we will get close to the 'we need to lockdown a bit for the back to school/seasonal return' and so before you can say 'SAGE' we are in this until next spring?

  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
    Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.

    Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)



  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)



    Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poor VDL, again shoved to the side of the photo...
    Take the bleeding suits off. You're in Cornwall, it's a beautiful evening, you're having a beach barbecue at the Hidden Hut (a great place)

    Suits??!
    They’re not going to the Hidden Hut, the Hidden Hut is coming to them, as it were.

    (My summer holiday last year was in the house just behind the Hidden Hut).
    Where they eating? St Ives?

    I've only ever had lunch at the Hidden Hut, but it was charming

    I've heard that if you get lucky, and you get a warm sunny evening, then their suppertime beach barbecues are absolutely magical. I can believe it. The Roseland is a lovely part of the world

    Lady Lady will you go
    With a twig of mistletoe
    to Ruan, Ruan Lanihorne?
    The guy from the Hidden Hut has gone up to Carbis Bay to do a BBQ for them.

    The suppertime barbecues are legendary but I think mostly off-season? Something of a treat for locals.

    Portscatho is a great little beach and yes Roseland is fantastic - and convenient for St Mawes, St Just etc etc.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada re: 2024 presidential nomination process, some quick thoughts

    > First-in-the-nation Iowa precinct caucuses are were an endangered species even before the epic 2020 meltdown by the Democratic State Party (aided & abetted by DNC).

    > Why? Because not only are caucuses inherently LESS democratic that primaries (due to barriers to participation) AND more subject to manipulation by activists & interest groups, they are also VERY difficult to manage logistically once they reach a certain level of magnitude. As demonstrated by both Democrats AND Republicans in Iowa in recent election cycles, much to the chagrin of themselves AND many PBers.

    > This is reason why the Democratic National Committee has bee actively discouraging caucuses and urging states to switch to primaries for purpose of allocating presidential delegates; note that Washington State switched in 2016.

    > Would also agree with Harry Reid, that Iowa using intra-party squabbling in Nevada as a reason for retaining the Iowa precinct caucuses is hogwash.

    > Iowa Dems (and Reps) are fighting to preserve their quadrennial cottage industry, which is worth a LOT of money to the state parties and even more so to the hospitality industry, broadcasters and other sectors of the Hawkeye State economy; once the caucuses are gone, Iowa is in dire risk of losing it's first-in-the-nation position because . . .

    > New Hampshire has a state law, that gives it's Secretary of State the power to schedule the NH presidential primary at his/her discretion, for the purpose of ensuring it is THE first primary, to preserve the Granite State's own cottage industry. (Which BTW effectively started with Estes Kefauver 1952 campaign, whereas Iowa caucuses became a thing only in 1976 with Jimmy Carter's campaign.)

    > Which is also a problem for Nevada, regardless of what Harry Reid OR the DNC has to say about it; note that back in her younger days Nancy Pelosi tried to muscle New Hampshire out of it's first-primary position; the Granite Staters told her to take a hike; and they will NOT back down now or in near future.

    > So where does this all end up for 2024? Who the heck knows, but my guess is that NH Primary will still be the first PRIMARY. As for Iowa, DNC may let them keep the precinct caucuses for one last hurrah, but wouldn't bet a plugged nickel on their survival beyond 2024.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
    Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.

    Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
    Absolutely spot on as regards what will happen this autumn. We will need to save the NHS yet again apparently and there are all those boosters to deliver and there is a new variant etc etc etc.

    The absolute worst of all this is that Julia Hartley Brewer will be proved right. :smile:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Except they are not staying in hospital. Shorter stays, of younger, less sick people, hence the total in hospital only gently rising.

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    50,000 brides might disagree.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,171

    Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    Johnson will doubtless bluff his way through this, but he had two problems.

    First- his coalition of libertarians and pensioners is split on the issue.

    Second- the reasons for this pickle really come back to him. Who does he blame?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    I’m with Fysh.
  • Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Except they are not staying in hospital. Shorter stays, of younger, less sick people, hence the total in hospital only gently rising.

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    Assuming it followed the same trajectory. Given the number of double vaccinated people in vulnerable groups, that seems a very bold assumption.
    We are following that trajectory, so far.

    More of Less podcast from memory, worth a listen.
    Those are the key words.
    Of course

    So do you want to risk another 4months of lock down by relaxing too early, causing utter collapse in public confidence, or take another few weeks to take time to have confidence that you are not going to utterly destroy the economy by opening too soon?
    It is almost inconceivable on the figures presented that there could be another lockdown. This isn’t a variant that leads to significant vaccine escape. So although it is running riot among those in vulnerable groups who have for whatever reason have declined the vaccine, and in younger groups who are yet to be jabbed, it’s going to run out of potential hosts quite quickly.

    My concern is that I am seeing people arguing for further arbitrary extensions based on dubious models that have so far been consistently wrong, when all the actual data we have points to a much lower peak.

    And finally, if it really is that virulent among children there is very little point keeping everything else shuttered and schools open, as it will spread there anyway. And I don’t think one school in Bedford apart anyone is proposing that.

    So a postponement would seem pretty pointless from an epidemiological point of view.

    Anyway, I am off to bed. Have a good evening.
    Except the trajectory is exactly the same as last Sept.

    Except those people who get paid to worry about my wife getting the operation she desperately needs are worried.

    If you are wrong, the economy is tanked, hundreds of thousands suffer pain through there being no NHS and many will die.

    If the experts are wrong we have another 4 weeks of minor lockdown that the vast majority of the population will happily accept.
    50,000 brides might disagree.
    Quite

    And hundreds of thousands will disagree if you are wrong

    There is no correct answer here.

    You worry about the brides

    Others worry about the possible impact on the national economy.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)

    Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
    Doesn't mean they won't try.

    And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    edited June 2021
    It’s been 24/48 hours since these noises kicked off and there still no consensus about the epidemiology numbers from the great and good of PB.

    This is weird; previously we (you, not me) have a good record of calling it early and calling it right.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    What a f*cking surprise. Here we go...

    Lol. In the least surprising ‘news’ of the day.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897

    RobD said:

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)

    Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
    Doesn't mean they won't try.

    And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
    No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,462
    edited June 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    What a f*cking surprise. Here we go...

    We will just all give SAGE a collective "just fuck off..." - and return to life. Having had jabs may not be perfect protection, but W-A-Y better than anything we had six months ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
    Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.

    Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
    Absolutely spot on as regards what will happen this autumn. We will need to save the NHS yet again apparently and there are all those boosters to deliver and there is a new variant etc etc etc.
    holo
    The absolute worst of all this is that Julia Hartley Brewer will be proved right. :smile:
    Yes. The symbolism of 21st June was important. The middle of the year. Midsummer. It's over. Now enjoy your freedom.

    Now that is swept aside, a promise broken. By late July we are well into summer, and school holidays begin, and hmmm why not just keep a few restrictions, Autumn is just 5 weeks ago, then stricter lockdown as the colder weather bites in late August, and so we will sail into 2022 without ever actually unlockdowning, two whole fucking years. You can see the psychology whirring away already, with hideous communists like Susan Michie seizing their chance to order our lives

    We have to resist. I shan't obey a single law after midsummer
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562
    This is madness. Absolute madness.

    We cannot afford to lockdown for another winter.

    It is a public health, a mental health and an economic calamity.

    Why both developing a vaccine if the real policy is lockdown until zero covid?




  • Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    I went into a store yesterday without a mask. When the manager came towards me I fished it out and he said, 'no no you don't need to put that on. You've been double jabbed I take it? Leave it off.'

    Felt great. Gave me hope that we will win this through people power.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379

    Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    Johnson will doubtless bluff his way through this, but he had two problems.

    First- his coalition of libertarians and pensioners is split on the issue.

    Second- the reasons for this pickle really come back to him. Who does he blame?
    Why the EU of course.
    Why wouldn't he? It's never failed yet.
    Tory 50% incoming.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?

    Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poor VDL, again shoved to the side of the photo...
    Take the bleeding suits off. You're in Cornwall, it's a beautiful evening, you're having a beach barbecue at the Hidden Hut (a great place)

    Suits??!
    They’re not going to the Hidden Hut, the Hidden Hut is coming to them, as it were.

    (My summer holiday last year was in the house just behind the Hidden Hut).
    Where they eating? St Ives?

    I've only ever had lunch at the Hidden Hut, but it was charming

    I've heard that if you get lucky, and you get a warm sunny evening, then their suppertime beach barbecues are absolutely magical. I can believe it. The Roseland is a lovely part of the world

    Lady Lady will you go
    With a twig of mistletoe
    to Ruan, Ruan Lanihorne?
    The guy from the Hidden Hut has gone up to Carbis Bay to do a BBQ for them.

    The suppertime barbecues are legendary but I think mostly off-season? Something of a treat for locals.

    Portscatho is a great little beach and yes Roseland is fantastic - and convenient for St Mawes, St Just etc etc.
    AND the G7 are gonna be entertained with sea shanties!

    DU HAG OWR - DRUNKEN SAILOR
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHWeyllzHuY
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Did some of us PB yesterday evening not warn that a month's delay to 21st June means we will get close to the 'we need to lockdown a bit for the back to school/seasonal return' and so before you can say 'SAGE' we are in this until next spring?

    Oh absolutely. I've gone so far as to suggest that they want to keep much of the apparatus of control in place literally forever, and been written off as an hysteric accordingly. Even though Michie and various other scum from the Covid Catastrophist wing of our scientific community have actually crawled out of the woodwork and admitted that they want them to go on forever.

    I strongly suspect that our poor benighted land will somehow need to get shot of the Prime Minister, or else he will cave to all of these demands.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
    Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.

    Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
    Absolutely spot on as regards what will happen this autumn. We will need to save the NHS yet again apparently and there are all those boosters to deliver and there is a new variant etc etc etc.
    holo
    The absolute worst of all this is that Julia Hartley Brewer will be proved right. :smile:
    Yes. The symbolism of 21st June was important. The middle of the year. Midsummer. It's over. Now enjoy your freedom.

    Now that is swept aside, a promise broken. By late July we are well into summer, and school holidays begin, and hmmm why not just keep a few restrictions, Autumn is just 5 weeks ago, then stricter lockdown as the colder weather bites in late August, and so we will sail into 2022 without ever actually unlockdowning, two whole fucking years. You can see the psychology whirring away already, with hideous communists like Susan Michie seizing their chance to order our lives

    We have to resist. I shan't obey a single law after midsummer
    That will be time consuming and potentially hard to co-ordinate. Still. Good to have a hobby.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    edited June 2021

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?

    Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
    They are not filled up.

    But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
  • I got irate about all this two weeks ago and was told to calm down by a couple of people on here. The price of not travelling was worth paying, I was assured, in order to secure our guaranteed freedom within the UK on June 21st.

    I suggested, that on the contrary the travel ban was a prelude to the Gov't moving the goalposts here too.

    Sure enough, here we are.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,737

    Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    You're right. He can choose to engage in civil disobedience, or he can be an MP setting laws that he expects the rest of us to follow. He can't do both. He needs to resign as an MP immediately if this is the path he's going down.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    Johnson will doubtless bluff his way through this, but he had two problems.

    First- his coalition of libertarians and pensioners is split on the issue.

    Second- the reasons for this pickle really come back to him. Who does he blame?
    Isn't that what other ministers are for?

    "Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life."
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
    Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.

    Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
    Absolutely spot on as regards what will happen this autumn. We will need to save the NHS yet again apparently and there are all those boosters to deliver and there is a new variant etc etc etc.
    holo
    The absolute worst of all this is that Julia Hartley Brewer will be proved right. :smile:
    Yes. The symbolism of 21st June was important. The middle of the year. Midsummer. It's over. Now enjoy your freedom.

    Now that is swept aside, a promise broken. By late July we are well into summer, and school holidays begin, and hmmm why not just keep a few restrictions, Autumn is just 5 weeks ago, then stricter lockdown as the colder weather bites in late August, and so we will sail into 2022 without ever actually unlockdowning, two whole fucking years. You can see the psychology whirring away already, with hideous communists like Susan Michie seizing their chance to order our lives

    We have to resist. I shan't obey a single law after midsummer
    That will be time consuming and potentially hard to co-ordinate. Still. Good to have a hobby.
    lol yes, possibly hyperbole


    But also possibly true, if I simply leave the country, because of our endless lockdown. That is an option, and then I won't be obeying a single British law
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379
    We aren't even in lockdown. Let alone a permanent one.
    Let's keep some perspective.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    Did some of us PB yesterday evening not warn that a month's delay to 21st June means we will get close to the 'we need to lockdown a bit for the back to school/seasonal return' and so before you can say 'SAGE' we are in this until next spring?

    Oh absolutely. I've gone so far as to suggest that they want to keep much of the apparatus of control in place literally forever, and been written off as an hysteric accordingly. Even though Michie and various other scum from the Covid Catastrophist wing of our scientific community have actually crawled out of the woodwork and admitted that they want them to go on forever.

    I strongly suspect that our poor benighted land will somehow need to get shot of the Prime Minister, or else he will cave to all of these demands.
    how long before there is talk of needing to renew the covid regulation legislation in september?

    hancock and gove are totally out of control and johnson is all at sea.

  • Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    You're right. He can choose to engage in civil disobedience, or he can be an MP setting laws that he expects the rest of us to follow. He can't do both. He needs to resign as an MP immediately if this is the path he's going down.
    That's a ludicrous comment. There is a long and noble tradition of politicians joining in action.

    No individual MP is responsible for the law, especially when it's an ass.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    dixiedean said:

    We aren't even in lockdown. Let alone a permanent one.
    Let's keep some perspective.

    Indeed, tomorrow I'm off to see some friends, have a meal in a restaurant, then go to the cinema.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,737
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
    Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.

    Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
    Absolutely spot on as regards what will happen this autumn. We will need to save the NHS yet again apparently and there are all those boosters to deliver and there is a new variant etc etc etc.
    holo
    The absolute worst of all this is that Julia Hartley Brewer will be proved right. :smile:
    Yes. The symbolism of 21st June was important. The middle of the year. Midsummer. It's over. Now enjoy your freedom.

    Now that is swept aside, a promise broken. By late July we are well into summer, and school holidays begin, and hmmm why not just keep a few restrictions, Autumn is just 5 weeks ago, then stricter lockdown as the colder weather bites in late August, and so we will sail into 2022 without ever actually unlockdowning, two whole fucking years. You can see the psychology whirring away already, with hideous communists like Susan Michie seizing their chance to order our lives

    We have to resist. I shan't obey a single law after midsummer
    Not any law at all after June 21st? If we see a spate of Midsummer murders I guess we will know who to blame.
  • Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    Sound the "no-one saw that one coming" klaxon
    Black Rook was depressingly correct in his pessimism
    Of course I am. The scumbag bastards want lockdown in perpetuity. Warnings of "you must do exactly what we say or else there'll be lockdown until next April" are meaningless. When we get to September they'll scream for lockdown until next April anyway.

    Time to load the catastrophists into a giant trebuchet and fling them into the Atlantic.
    Absolutely spot on as regards what will happen this autumn. We will need to save the NHS yet again apparently and there are all those boosters to deliver and there is a new variant etc etc etc.
    holo
    The absolute worst of all this is that Julia Hartley Brewer will be proved right. :smile:
    Yes. The symbolism of 21st June was important. The middle of the year. Midsummer. It's over. Now enjoy your freedom.

    Now that is swept aside, a promise broken. By late July we are well into summer, and school holidays begin, and hmmm why not just keep a few restrictions, Autumn is just 5 weeks ago, then stricter lockdown as the colder weather bites in late August, and so we will sail into 2022 without ever actually unlockdowning, two whole fucking years. You can see the psychology whirring away already, with hideous communists like Susan Michie seizing their chance to order our lives

    We have to resist. I shan't obey a single law after midsummer
    That will be time consuming and potentially hard to co-ordinate. Still. Good to have a hobby.
    lol yes, possibly hyperbole


    But also possibly true, if I simply leave the country, because of our endless lockdown. That is an option, and then I won't be obeying a single British law
    Me neither. I am actively looking at amber countries to go to and if and when I return I shall either give a false address or tell them to fuck off over testing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?

    Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.

    But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.
  • So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?

    Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.

    But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.

    I think we are going to see the return of the vault where there is bar service and the rest of the bars where it is table service.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)

    Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
    Doesn't mean they won't try.

    And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
    No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
    It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,737

    Lock him up.

    Lawmakers cannot be lawbreakers.

    Marcus Fysh, the Conservative backbencher and a member of the CRG, suggested that he would begin to flout Covid-19 guidance if Mr Johnson signs off on a delay to the June 21 deadline, and that it would be "understandable" if members of the public did the same.

    Mr Fysh said: "I would find that entirely understandable, if people just went ahead and ignored any restrictions.

    "I cannot see any reason to observe restrictions domestically. And I have no intention of doing so.

    "And that goes for what happens in Parliament too. There is no way that I'll be doing any more social distancing or masks or anything like that. Whatever they say the rules are I will ignore them from June 21."

    You're right. He can choose to engage in civil disobedience, or he can be an MP setting laws that he expects the rest of us to follow. He can't do both. He needs to resign as an MP immediately if this is the path he's going down.
    That's a ludicrous comment. There is a long and noble tradition of politicians joining in action.

    No individual MP is responsible for the law, especially when it's an ass.
    Why does he get to make laws stopping me from doing things I want to, when the first time one comes along that he disagrees with he breaks it?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?

    Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.

    But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.

    I don’t like it and I prefer not to go to pubs with it in operation. See also “booking”.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146
    edited June 2021

    So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?

    Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.

    But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.

    My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    dixiedean said:

    We aren't even in lockdown. Let alone a permanent one.
    Let's keep some perspective.

    Give it time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786

    So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?

    Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.

    But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.

    Its continental innit....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Poor VDL, again shoved to the side of the photo...
    Take the bleeding suits off. You're in Cornwall, it's a beautiful evening, you're having a beach barbecue at the Hidden Hut (a great place)

    Suits??!
    They’re not going to the Hidden Hut, the Hidden Hut is coming to them, as it were.

    (My summer holiday last year was in the house just behind the Hidden Hut).
    Where they eating? St Ives?

    I've only ever had lunch at the Hidden Hut, but it was charming

    I've heard that if you get lucky, and you get a warm sunny evening, then their suppertime beach barbecues are absolutely magical. I can believe it. The Roseland is a lovely part of the world

    Lady Lady will you go
    With a twig of mistletoe
    to Ruan, Ruan Lanihorne?
    The guy from the Hidden Hut has gone up to Carbis Bay to do a BBQ for them.

    The suppertime barbecues are legendary but I think mostly off-season? Something of a treat for locals.

    Portscatho is a great little beach and yes Roseland is fantastic - and convenient for St Mawes, St Just etc etc.
    AND the G7 are gonna be entertained with sea shanties!

    DU HAG OWR - DRUNKEN SAILOR
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHWeyllzHuY
    Did you watch that?
    Possibly the worst shanty effort I’ve seen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    edited June 2021

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)

    Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
    Doesn't mean they won't try.

    And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
    No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
    It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
    Of course it sounds plausible to you, it's what you think is going to happen. In the real world I think the chances of having a covid lockdown continuously for the next 6 months, 6 years, or 60 years, to be near nil.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 EXCLUSIVE: Government advisers have told ministers they will face a ticking clock before it becomes too late to lift the remaining restrictions in September

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

    What a f*cking surprise. Here we go...

    We will just all give SAGE a collective "just fuck off..." - and return to life. Having had jabs may not be perfect protection, but W-A-Y better than anything we had six months ago.
    If only that simple. They shut the pubs and eateries and any pub that opens will lose its licence etc.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,998

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)

    Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
    Doesn't mean they won't try.

    And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
    No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
    It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
    They probably wouldn't do it explicitly permanently: it would be waiting to beat a variant, then waiting to vaccinate kids, then another variant must come along so we need boosters then another virus then a flu season etc etc.

    I don't think it would work, because we'd see that all other countries are operating normally, but sometimes people do stupid things.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?

    Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
    They are not filled up.

    But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
    That's goalpost shifting. It's also insane. If we have to have restrictions until the NHS has caught up with its backlog of Covid-postponed treatments then we shall have them for anything from five to ten years.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    kinabalu said:


    The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.


    Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    Helen Miller
    @MsHelicat
    ·
    2m
    SUNDAY EXPRESS: Will we ever be free? #tomorrowspaperstoday

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1403823474351783942


    Nope. Not unless the Cabinet act. Or the 1922.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    As @Stuartinromford astutely pointed out earlier, Boris will survive this because his critics can’t decide whether to attack him for being too restrictive or not restrictive enough (ie the laxness that led to a likely extension of restrictions).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)



    Is the anonymous minister referring to the PM?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Minister: "I am very worried the people who want to keep us shut down now want us to keep us shut down permanently and are aiming for 'zero Covid'."

    (Telegraph)

    Permanently locked down? It's just not credible.
    Doesn't mean they won't try.

    And we need to be especially alert for demands for the eternal use of masks.
    No one would ever sign off on a plan for a permanent, never-ending lockdown. That statement just makes me doubt the entire story.
    It sounds perfectly plausible to me. If Johnson is in thrall to the catastrophists then why wouldn't you believe that he'll just keep giving them what they want?
    Of course it sounds plausible to you, it's what you think is going to happen. In the real world I think the chances of having a covid lockdown continuously for the next 6 months, 6 years, or 60 years, to be near nil.
    Oh, it would result in complete societal and economic collapse eventually, but the Government has an awful lot of shit scared elderly supporters to keep it in office and a potentially enormous capacity to borrow more money.

    Japan currently has a debt to GDP ratio in excess of 250%. If Sunak can keep borrowing up to that limit then an intermittent pattern of lockdown and partial release could be drawn out for many years.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    edited June 2021

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?

    Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
    They are not filled up.

    But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
    Yet you said this:

    then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing

    now having had your claim disproved you shift the goalposts onto NHS backlogs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?

    Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
    They are not filled up.

    But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
    That's goalpost shifting. It's also insane. If we have to have restrictions until the NHS has caught up with its backlog of Covid-postponed treatments then we shall have them for anything from five to ten years.
    As a telegraph journo pointed out earlier, the backlog is partly because the social distancing needed in wards and hospital units slows everything down. It's not just pubs that have a problem.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,919
    tlg86 said:

    So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?

    Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.

    But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.

    My dad says that the pub he goes to has pretty much gone back to normal (no masks, people going to the bar).
    It does seem to me that many are returning to normality and just ignoring the restrictions, other than face masks, and getting on with their lives

    Indeed I was at a family 50th birthday party last week when most everyone shook hands and/ or hugged

    Mind you everyone, apart from the children, had had at least one vaccination and many both

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    edited June 2021
    There was that great cartoon earlier in the week with Boris as goalkeeper and two sets of scientists fighting over where to shift the goalposts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    Do they think we will forget it is on if they don't take regular group photos?
  • Floater said:

    Dr John Campbell posted some interesting stats

    Cases (daily average) - week to 13/9/20 - 2838
    Hospitalizations (daily average) 10 days later (week to 23/9) - 243

    Fast forward

    cases week to 28/5/21 - 2744
    Hospitalizations (daily average) week to 7/6 - 108

    Far fewer hospitalisations and, I would strongly imagine, involving patients that are (on average) less ill, in need of less care, and are leaving again after shorter stays.

    Not that this makes the blindest bit of difference insofar as any of the individuals involved in making decisions about our ongoing privations are concerned.
    This was talked about on the radio the other day.

    Essentially we have half the hospitalisations per infection compared to Sept 2020.

    Given we are doubling every 10 days then if we let things rip, even if we let things rip much faster as total relaxation would lead to, then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing.
    So why hasn't Bolton hospital filled up with covid patients ?

    Followed by Bedfordshire hospital followed by Blackburn hospital ?
    They are not filled up.

    But the hospitals in Greater Manc have massive non Covid backlogs and addressing these backlogs has been impacted and is getting worse by the rise across the region as staff are taken to deal with those new admissions.
    Yet you said this:

    then we are very very rapidly going to get back to the NHS collapsing

    now having had your claim disproved you shift the goalposts onto NHS backlogs.
    The NHS can collapse when staff take time off, finally after a year, when they are overloaded with non Covid patients trying to clear a backlog then there is another uptick in Covid again.

    That is collapse of the NHS.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,562

    So what are PBers reaction to the sit and wait for your drinks order to be taken rather than go to the bar ?

    Having experienced it several times it just feels unnatural to me and stops a pub from feeling like a pub.

    But I can see it being preferred by oldies, women and families with young kids.

    Its continental innit....
    I quite like it. Order by app just before your present pint is finished and a new one is at your table just as you are finishing.

    The problem is the staff required. Pubs must be losing money. The prices will go up I guess.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,923
    FF43 said:

    kinabalu said:


    The evidence has to be both compatible with leak and incompatible with wild. Just the 1st isn't enough. And unfortunately you can't divorce messenger from message. Not so much you - although there is that - but with all the Trumpian loonies. I'm afraid their support does taint the object of it. There's no easy way around that. It saves so much time to assume everything they say is true is false. It's efficient to do that because it will be the case 99% of the time. But there will be that 1% and maybe this is it. I doubt it but that's all I'm doing. Doubting. Which is a big move. I'm no longer rejecting it out of hand - my efficient default for Trump tat - and I'm not mocking it. Looking forward to being able to mock it again one day but I realize that day might never arrive. Could be permanent limbo on this one - which would not be great for anyone.


    Actually it doesn't. It's possible for a virus of natural origin to be leaked from the lab. In fact by trying to prove that the virus has artificial origin in order to support a lab leak theory, people actually undermine the possibility of a lab leak. It is highly unlikely that the virus has an artificial origin, while the leak of a naturally occurring virus from a lab in Wuhan is plausible. The evidence for the latter is circumstantial however.
    Yes, quite

    But to make it clear, there are now four hypotheses, and here's the probability I give to them:


    1. Natural Zoonosis - the trad "wet market" theory - 20%

    2. Accidental but natural "lab leak" - a worker gets bitten in Yunnan, bat blood is spilled in a Wuhan lab - 60%

    3. Accidental lab leak of an altered virus - a spillage means a gain-of-function bug escapes into the world - 19.9%

    4. Deliberate leak of a bioweapon - 0.1%
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,379


    Helen Miller
    @MsHelicat
    ·
    2m
    SUNDAY EXPRESS: Will we ever be free? #tomorrowspaperstoday

    https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1403823474351783942


    Nope. Not unless the Cabinet act. Or the 1922.

    And with a lead of c 13% why would they do that?
    As I said last night the only solution is for folk to say they won't vote Tory.
    No sign of that. Quite the opposite.
This discussion has been closed.