How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
Incidentally on the topic of religion I said I was torn the other day in how to fill in the religious question for the Census. Previous two I'd put "Jedi" as my answer for that question as despite vehemently having no religion I felt it was not a question the Government should be asking.
This time I put No Religion down. After the move towards blasphemy laws and attacks on free speech around the world I feel like its appropriate to add my name to the No Religion total, despite still thinking it is none of the state's business to know about.
Mr. JS, it's the same sort of people who think abolishing cash is a smart idea.
I would also like to give the Lib Dems some rare praise for their stance on this.
Stockholm Syndrome is rubbish.
Abolishing cash is a great idea.
It would also be a great victory in the war on drugs.
Simple rule: if you can't choose to live and exist without a smartphone (even if it's less convenient, and a tad more expensive) then you're not really free.
Abolishing cash would be like abolishing books.
Of course you're free, smartphones give you even more liberty.
Lockdown has been a challenge yet thanks to technology I've been able to talk to friends all over the world for nothing.
Would you prefer to contact them via post?
Smartphone's are a personal tracking device, plus they need power and juice to work.
I always want to have an off-the-grid option. And, yes, many friends are touched with a personal letter - we all don't write enough of them.
I am a man of letters.
I'm talking about the friend going through a rough spell in Ireland, our WhatsApp group, as well individually, can give him immediate support in a way a letter cannot.
A smartphone allows me to do things quicker and easier, allowing me more quality time.
I'm not saying smartphones aren't convenient or useful but I don't want them to take over the world and be the only way one can live.
Thankfully, I'm not alone. Kindles were all the rage a few years ago but a lot of people have now gone back to proper traditional books now and I think that balance is healthy.
It used to be a huge pain - taking up to a dozen books on a plane (yes, really - when flying to Hong Kong there is a lot of reading to be done). And on the tube. Kindles were a blessing. Now, I generally prefer books. Some demand to be in book form (The Mirror & The Light, The Testaments, etc).
Me the same. I love the feel of books, unread and half read. Scattered across the bed.
Apparently Mao was the same. Had a huge bed, but when it wasn’t also occupied by teenage dancing girls it was stacked with books, which he would read until 3pm. Then finally rise. I am very similar tho I try not to starve Manchuria
I too love the feel of books, but sadly the way my eyes are going it's much easier to use the Kindle app with the text big enough for someone with normal vision to read it from about half a mile away.
I reckon I’ve got about another decade of pretending-I-don’t-need-glasses, until I finally have to accept I do
One of my last memories pre-lockdown was holding a restaurant menu in a dimly lit room about a yard from my face. The only way I could decipher it
Glasses aren't a particular problem until one needs hearing aids as well, and then a facemark. There isn't room behind the ears!
I suspect that if I had my time again I'd go for contact lenses!
The Brexit Party move to the Tories seems not too surprising, despite speculation that it might not be that clear. The big Green vote ought to be squeezable by Labour - a Green voter who fancies having a Tory MP dependent on BXP support would be a strange creature.
This is all about turnout though isn't it. Given that turnout for a bye election will be less than in a GE (can we safely assume that?) which party will the lower turnout disadvantage the most?
When thinking about the betting, this is the thing I can't form a view on.
It does very much feel like there's goal post shifting going on. I've hated lockdown. It's impacted on my mental health, my career progression, every aspect of life in a negative way. My wedding reception was about 15 of us eating takeaway pizza in a park (admittedly that wasn't so bad). I've been relatively lucky in that I at least own my own property and have a secure job.
I would be entirely happy to take my chances with the disease. Obviously I'd rather not catch it, but I'm young, fit and can assess risk for myself. Despite that, I do believe in responsibility to society and accepted restrictions on my basic freedoms to prevent the collapse of the healthcare system and benefit the more vulnerable.
Now every time I see comfortable older people talking about longer term restrictions or health officials saying things like 'social distancing is a low cost measure' it makes my blood boil. I've also found I've started having mild anxiety attacks at some of the pronouncements in the media.
I don't expect any particular sympathy, but I do find the way some people seem to be thinking hugely disturbing. If the government does try to keep social distancing or put in a new lockdown-lite next winter, I'm rapidly going to become a single issue voter.
I do sympathize and I'd also like to try to reassure you a little. There is almost no chance of the roadmap being delayed and there's a small chance of it being accelerated. But certainly no delay. Which means we are close to emerging from this now. On Monday, outdoor leisure again. April 12th indoor leisure and outdoor pubs and shops - that's a biggie - and by start of summer virtually no restrictions at all on virtually anything. Maybe some overseas holiday destinations will be a no-go, but other than that.
Lots of talk about "new normals" after the pandemic but it's my firm opinion that most of it will not come to pass. Vaxports for international travel? Probably. But for pubs? No way. Not a chance of that happening on any scale. Stay with masks and social distancing? Yes, to an extent, because it's become a habit, but it will be voluntary. And certainly no lockdown-lite next winter unless there's some totally unexpected and malign turn of events.
It's clear to me that the end-state being targeted is for Covid to join the cast of characters in the world of nasty diseases that we have to live with. I don't see any reason to doubt that this is where we are heading, courtesy of vaccines. This has been such a drag, it really has, and so I understand why some people are getting twitchy, fearing the authorities might backslide and maintain restrictions on a semi-permanent basis, but I see no rational basis for such a fear.
Brabin has backed the Batley protesters. My understanding is that she’s already not that liked and so, if she doesn't win the Mayoral Election, then she might be in trouble in 2024.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
The Brexit Party move to the Tories seems not too surprising, despite speculation that it might not be that clear. The big Green vote ought to be squeezable by Labour - a Green voter who fancies having a Tory MP dependent on BXP support would be a strange creature.
This is all about turnout though isn't it. Given that turnout for a bye election will be less than in a GE (can we safely assume that?) which party will the lower turnout disadvantage the most?
When thinking about the betting, this is the thing I can't form a view on.
If the Tories had been able to end the lockdown a little earlier than expected it probably would have given them an extra boost in Hartlepool. Now it looks like Labour will hold on.
It's the infantile nature of protesting people not adhering to your faith (or your interpretation of your faith) that always gets me.
People of faith include some of the very best people I know, but theyll come across a lot of things contrary to their faith every damn day and most accept that. Perhaps theyll even proselytize to change things, no problem.
If your faith is strong it can survive the existence of non believers, infidels and apostates without your mind blowing, even if they offend you.
At least in terms of the Christian Wars of Religion following the Reformation, and persecution of heretics before, you are missing the point.
It's not the individual's faith that is threatened by a non-believer. It's the very security and survival of the community, because the devoutly religious believed that God will punish them collectively for the sin of the heretic.
If you believe that famine is a punishment from God, then it's easy to blame the heretic for that punishment.
I do not know where Islam is on the continuum of being able to tolerate heresy. It seems considerably closer to the 17th century then Christianity - but toleration is surprisingly recent for Christianity too, and arguably an incomplete process.
(With apologies to David Crowther of the History of England for anything that I've mangled from his podcasts)
Maybe they want to take a shortcut to herd immunity
As far as I can tell what Merkel cancelled wouldn't have made any difference anyway. She cancelled the dumb idea of forcing supermarkets to close the Thursday before Easter as well as the usual Good Friday, Sunday and Easter Monday, which would only have made the usual "Easter Saturday" supermarket crush even worse than other years. A few other shops would have been affected on the Thursday and Saturday, but non-essential shops are anyway subject to restrictions so I don't think that could have made much difference either way. Non-essential workplaces would also have been asked to close for 5 days, but again as most of these would be anyway more or less closed at the weekend and on the Friday and Monday which are public holidays, I can't see how it would have helped much. I mean even 5 real days wouldn't make much difference, so 5 days 4 of which are anyway holidays is a complete waste of time.
Plus they went back on the proposed ban on in-person religious services over Easter. Probably the only bit of the proposals that made any sense (easy for me to say, having never been to an Easter service in my life), but it shows how powerful the churches are in Germany that this ban was also scrapped.
Merkel's (and Germany's) problem is that having done almost nothing for a whole year, she finds she no longer has any authority to try and persuade people to do even small things now.
The situation is deteriorating so rapidly that I guess the Bundesländer will just start imposing more emergency measures within a few days without necessarily getting agreement with others.
The EU picking a fight with AZ was bizarre given we've only imported a million doses from the EU plants total I think - so proportionately our share from their output is less than their own....
Now Pfizer, J&J and Novavax are going to be ultracautious wrt anything EU related.
Heart of stone and stuff.
Pfizer rejected the EU position last night
The EU have done untold damage to their pharmaceutical industries, and many others will be wary of investment in the EU
Have they? Where do you get your inside information?
Pfizer publicly said that the EU plans were unhelpful.
Have you any idea of the scale of these companies? They are vast and spread all over the world. I've shot for various brands in various countries over the years and you don't even know where the head office of the brand is.
Have you any idea how easy that makes it for them to withdraw from a region and transfer to somewhere else? The EU represents less then 7% of the world's population. They need to realise they really are not that important.
Yes, but I can assure you they won't be transferring anytime soon. CEOs of pharma companies know that this is all a storm in a teacup in the bigger scheme of things. There are two elements that drives where healthcare companies base themselves: talent and tax breaks. It is one of the reasons why Brexit will not massively effect the pharma industry in the short term, inconvenient though it is. It is better to suck up the variations you get politically than try to relocate. Longer term is a different matter, but governments will have time to make amends
The EU picking a fight with AZ was bizarre given we've only imported a million doses from the EU plants total I think - so proportionately our share from their output is less than their own....
Now Pfizer, J&J and Novavax are going to be ultracautious wrt anything EU related.
Heart of stone and stuff.
Pfizer rejected the EU position last night
The EU have done untold damage to their pharmaceutical industries, and many others will be wary of investment in the EU
Have they? Where do you get your inside information?
Pfizer publicly said that the EU plans were unhelpful.
That’s a massively diplomatic answer, worthy of Sir Humphrey.
Also did not Novavax just refuse to sign a contract with the eu for vaccines
Yep. Pharma companies now don’t trust the EU to be a reliable partner.
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
She is as bad as the fecking nuttiest of Brexiteer nutters. Maybe she and Macron have learned from them. I despair!
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ? Edit Though 0 - 15 should still be a "virgin sample" I think.
Tim from Wetherspoons says he will resist "freedom passes". No need. Objects to pubs being on front line of civil liberties battles.
Sack current generation of politicians who don't understand pubs he tells Julia HB.
Something I read in the Guardian today chimed with something I considered last night. Trailing vax passports but saying they will come in after everyone has been offered vaccination is straight out of the Nudge Unit.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
On topic, there is a tendency on here to paint anything to with election rules as those nasty Republicans looking to disenfranchise voters while the saintly Democrats do their best for justice.
The simple fact is Mike's argument would have a lot more effect if, just once, it was recognised what the Democrats are doing to weight the system in their favour or the actions they took before November were acknowledged. Courts have ruled in several states that Democrat Secretaries of State overstepped their boundaries in changing rules without the authorisation of legislatures that had the proper authority or, as in PA, Democrat-controlled courts giving themselves powers which they didn't have. And that is without getting onto the monstrosity that is HR1, which is a blatant attempt at rigging.
We saw this the other day on Nancy Pelosi's blatant attempts to overturn the IA-2 result and hand the seat to the Democrat loser. People like @rpjs who would wet their pants at the signs of Trump doing anything, come out "well, under the Constitution, the House has the authority to change the result". Yeah? Well, under the Constitution, Republican controlled state legislatures could have sent their own delegates. What would have been the screams on here if the Republican did that and cited the Constitution.
So normally I would look at what Georgia has done and said "this is not the route". But you know what, f**k it, I'm sick of the hypocrisy and preaching so I say bring it on and I hope every Republican state does this sort of thing. It's the only way the Democrats will ever learn.
Shorter MrEd... it's always someone else's fault when we're planning to steal elections.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
One thing that might affect it a bit is that a higher percentage of UK deaths were in the first wave last year, when the UK was not doing well on testing.
Another thing is some of those countries have had very big increases in cases in recent weeks, so deaths have yet to catch up.
But there's still some interesting differences.
Also on testing figures I would be careful, I have seen UK testing figures including rapid tests compared with eg German figures that only include PCR tests - afaik there is no kind of official count of rapid tests in Germany, but a lot are happening, often provided by local authorities (and a positive one will usually be followed by a PCR test to confirm). If you compare PCR tests only then the UK is still doing more per capita than Germany, but the difference is far less.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
The narrative ought to be "only our contract counts", says EU chief.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ?
That’s an estimate I took from a Neil Ferguson interview. If anyone would be able to give an estimate I guess it would be him. Also antibodies will not give the full picture - they fade, T-Cells etc etc. It is an estimate
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
I am not convinced he has any liberal tendencies, and recent developments, particularly the draconian policing bill reinforce that view -though it is possible he has been too lazy to read or understand what his ministers are implementing . He is solely driven by his ego and ambition.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
One thing that might affect it a bit is that a higher percentage of UK deaths were in the first wave last year, when the UK was not doing well on testing.
Another thing is some of those countries have had very big increases in cases in recent weeks, so deaths have yet to catch up.
But there's still some interesting differences.
Also on testing figures I would be careful, I have seen UK testing figures including rapid tests compared with eg German figures that only include PCR tests - afaik there is no kind of official count of rapid tests in Germany, but a lot are happening, often provided by local authorities (and a positive one will usually be followed by a PCR test to confirm). If you compare PCR tests only then the UK is still doing more per capita than Germany, but the difference is far less.
My instinct is that every European country (in the wider sense) will suffer as badly - it’s just a matter of timing. If I am right we may have the worst behind us but I fear you have a tough couple of months ahead.
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
I am not convinced he has any liberal tendencies, and recent developments, particularly the draconian policing bill reinforce that view -though it is possible he has been too lazy to read or understand what his ministers are implementing . He is solely driven by his ego and ambition.
I'd agree with you that Johnson isn't a liberal or libertarian in any true sense of the word. He's a libertine instead and so will only appear liberal when it relates to a principal that stops him from doing something he wants.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ?
That’s an estimate I took from a Neil Ferguson interview. If anyone would be able to give an estimate I guess it would be him. Also antibodies will not give the full picture - they fade, T-Cells etc etc. It is an estimate
Blood doner testing puts it much lower.
And for all age groups, ~40% of the population are seropositive from either infection/vaccination, whilst seropositivity due to infection has remained stable at 15% for the past month pic.twitter.com/vjlKktbmue
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
One thing that might affect it a bit is that a higher percentage of UK deaths were in the first wave last year, when the UK was not doing well on testing.
Another thing is some of those countries have had very big increases in cases in recent weeks, so deaths have yet to catch up.
But there's still some interesting differences.
Also on testing figures I would be careful, I have seen UK testing figures including rapid tests compared with eg German figures that only include PCR tests - afaik there is no kind of official count of rapid tests in Germany, but a lot are happening, often provided by local authorities (and a positive one will usually be followed by a PCR test to confirm). If you compare PCR tests only then the UK is still doing more per capita than Germany, but the difference is far less.
One other factor is that the UK when you contrast with excess deaths is actually overcounting its deaths. Most European countries are not.
Take Portugal, currently showing 2.1% in that chart but they're excess death toll was 50% higher than their reported death toll.
The one that is surprising is France. They've got lots of cases, no excess beyond what was reported, but a low toll percentage. I don't know what that is for France.
Mr. JS, it's the same sort of people who think abolishing cash is a smart idea.
I would also like to give the Lib Dems some rare praise for their stance on this.
Stockholm Syndrome is rubbish.
Abolishing cash is a great idea.
It would also be a great victory in the war on drugs.
Simple rule: if you can't choose to live and exist without a smartphone (even if it's less convenient, and a tad more expensive) then you're not really free.
Abolishing cash would be like abolishing books.
Of course you're free, smartphones give you even more liberty.
Lockdown has been a challenge yet thanks to technology I've been able to talk to friends all over the world for nothing.
Would you prefer to contact them via post?
Smartphone's are a personal tracking device, plus they need power and juice to work.
I always want to have an off-the-grid option. And, yes, many friends are touched with a personal letter - we all don't write enough of them.
I am a man of letters.
I'm talking about the friend going through a rough spell in Ireland, our WhatsApp group, as well individually, can give him immediate support in a way a letter cannot.
A smartphone allows me to do things quicker and easier, allowing me more quality time.
I'm not saying smartphones aren't convenient or useful but I don't want them to take over the world and be the only way one can live.
Thankfully, I'm not alone. Kindles were all the rage a few years ago but a lot of people have now gone back to proper traditional books now and I think that balance is healthy.
It used to be a huge pain - taking up to a dozen books on a plane (yes, really - when flying to Hong Kong there is a lot of reading to be done). And on the tube. Kindles were a blessing. Now, I generally prefer books. Some demand to be in book form (The Mirror & The Light, The Testaments, etc).
Me the same. I love the feel of books, unread and half read. Scattered across the bed.
Apparently Mao was the same. Had a huge bed, but when it wasn’t also occupied by teenage dancing girls it was stacked with books, which he would read until 3pm. Then finally rise. I am very similar tho I try not to starve Manchuria
I too love the feel of books, but sadly the way my eyes are going it's much easier to use the Kindle app with the text big enough for someone with normal vision to read it from about half a mile away.
I reckon I’ve got about another decade of pretending-I-don’t-need-glasses, until I finally have to accept I do
One of my last memories pre-lockdown was holding a restaurant menu in a dimly lit room about a yard from my face. The only way I could decipher it
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
tbf, I thought the EU commission have fucked up, and don't have a leg to stand on, but every time I come on here and read the rabid ravings of some of the europhobic posters I start feeling maybe they should ban exports. you should be happy that nobody else on the continent reads this blog...
That "request" to not let the UK into the CPTPP - do you think is has been screwed up in a ball, or torn to pieces or set on fire?
My friend in Bangkok also said that everyone there was looking at the EU in amazement and horror. By ‘everyone’ she means the English speaking hi-so chattering classes, not tuk-tuk drivers, but still. Quite notable. The lunacy coming out of Brussels is being scrutinized around the world.
She was particularly struck by the EU simultaneously banning yet stealing AZ vaccines.
Oddly, my Bangkok informant just rang. Much more exercised by the imminent arrival of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson which he & his wife hope to have PDQ.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
One thing that might affect it a bit is that a higher percentage of UK deaths were in the first wave last year, when the UK was not doing well on testing.
Another thing is some of those countries have had very big increases in cases in recent weeks, so deaths have yet to catch up.
But there's still some interesting differences.
Also on testing figures I would be careful, I have seen UK testing figures including rapid tests compared with eg German figures that only include PCR tests - afaik there is no kind of official count of rapid tests in Germany, but a lot are happening, often provided by local authorities (and a positive one will usually be followed by a PCR test to confirm). If you compare PCR tests only then the UK is still doing more per capita than Germany, but the difference is far less.
What counts as a death from/with covid is also disputed. We say within 24 days of a + test result in some stats and in other stats it is about what's on death certificate.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ?
That’s an estimate I took from a Neil Ferguson interview. If anyone would be able to give an estimate I guess it would be him. Also antibodies will not give the full picture - they fade, T-Cells etc etc. It is an estimate
Blood doner testing puts it much lower.
And for all age groups, ~40% of the population are seropositive from either infection/vaccination, whilst seropositivity due to infection has remained stable at 15% for the past month pic.twitter.com/vjlKktbmue
Given that in Brazil, in areas that were totally over run by COVID in the first wave, they are finding 25% of the population caught COVID, numbers above that are somewhat difficult to believe....
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
tbf, I thought the EU commission have fucked up, and don't have a leg to stand on, but every time I come on here and read the rabid ravings of some of the europhobic posters I start feeling maybe they should ban exports. you should be happy that nobody else on the continent reads this blog...
I am offended. I got the impression Macron visits daily, posing as Nigel Formain. Oh well
It's the infantile nature of protesting people not adhering to your faith (or your interpretation of your faith) that always gets me.
People of faith include some of the very best people I know, but theyll come across a lot of things contrary to their faith every damn day and most accept that. Perhaps theyll even proselytize to change things, no problem.
If your faith is strong it can survive the existence of non believers, infidels and apostates without your mind blowing, even if they offend you.
At least in terms of the Christian Wars of Religion following the Reformation, and persecution of heretics before, you are missing the point.
It's not the individual's faith that is threatened by a non-believer. It's the very security and survival of the community, because the devoutly religious believed that God will punish them collectively for the sin of the heretic.
If you believe that famine is a punishment from God, then it's easy to blame the heretic for that punishment.
I do not know where Islam is on the continuum of being able to tolerate heresy. It seems considerably closer to the 17th century then Christianity - but toleration is surprisingly recent for Christianity too, and arguably an incomplete process.
(With apologies to David Crowther of the History of England for anything that I've mangled from his podcasts)
And Islam has been going about as long as Christianity had when the latter went ape over 'heretics', Both religion had early, very significant, splits, too.
Blimey have tuned in to PB this morning to see that everyone has turned into @contrarian.
About time. What many failed to see and are now realising is that red lines can be ignored, and others' scoffed at. Until. Your own red lines are the ones being breached.
If I may be allowed to quote myself:
"People scream on here: "but lockdowns work. Go Government". As if that is the most important aspect to all this legislation.
And before they know it they are faced with some measure or other which breeches their own red lines and then they say "well they can't do that". But they already have. And then they look around frantically for Steve Baker of all people to come and rescue them/us all."
Contrarian has been railing against restrictions at a time when cases and deaths were going through the roof and there was a real danger of hospitals being overwhelmed within weeks. That's a minority view, on here and in the country.
The extension of emergency powers to the autumn, when any sensible analysis suggests they should not, in all probability, be needed makes many of us queasy. I supported the January lockdown. I'm fine with the pretty cautious opening up plan. I want to see some very good reasons why legislation needs extending now. As we've seen before, steps can be taken quickly if needed, we don't need to be agreeing these powers now.
You are proving my point. You think it was justified then but not now. Because your view of freedoms and legislation incorporate and justify taking such action then as though it is the only logical thing to have done. "Everyone agrees..."
But someone else's red line was back then and they thought the actions the government took were beyond what was justified given the circumstances. Were they right or wrong? Are you right or wrong? Is the key metric 10 lives or 10,000 lives? Irrelevant. It is the principle that is important. The government used and is using draconian powers to legislate (away) our freedoms.
Watch again that Tory MP and his pint of milk. Seems bonkers. Actually it is particularly acute and relevant.
I'll leave Contrarian to one side, if I may, as his/her arguments also include a bit of denialism in my view. Sometimes, I do find that Contrarian is plain wrong. Stocky was writing yesterday, arguing that what we've done this time was wrong because we can't do it every time. Stocky finds (I hope I'm interpreting right, apologies if not) that the enforced restriction of liberty is just too much, even though the threat is very real. That's not wrong, it's personal values. I'm on the other side of that debate to Stocky, but I can respect the argument and Stocky is in no way wrong.
As you say, we all have our tipping point. For some, we all need to stay locked down/restricted until we can be sure opening up will not cause any more deaths. For me, that's absurd. We don't lock down for flu every year. We don't set the speed limit to 20mph everywhere. We accept risks for benefits. We accept deaths for freedoms. I think we could probably go a bit quicker than planned, but I accept there are uncertainties and the government has been burned on this before, so I can accept the caution.
I'm not on SAGE, nor an expert in infectious disease, but I have worked with PHE/Dept of Health on projections for noncommunicable diseases. Don't get too concerned about the pessimistic reports. PHE/the government always want the worst case scenarios in addition to various 'realistic' scenarios. They like the certainty of a worst case scenario - as a scientist you're basically telling them there are lots of ifs, buts and maybes in all the other scenarios and it depends on actions and a lot of random, unpredictable factors. But with the worst case scenario you're essentially saying to them, I'm certain, it won't get worse than this. They tend to fixate on that certainty and ignore much of the rest (which can be frustrating!). When the worst case scenarios are no longer that troubling, that's when the politicians in charge of this will relax.
The public pessimism at the moment, I think, is designed to get people to stick with the restrictions as they're lifted under the current plan. We're not yet far enough with vaccinations to stop another wave of cases, at least. The unvaccinated are those more likely to spread and more likely to be infected. I expect the numbers will show that we could still get hospitals into trouble if the unvaccinated population goes crazy. We do need people to keep following restrictions now (although, as suggested yesterday by Andy Cooke, I think, it would be nice to loosen up earlier on outside stuff which is low risk). Come the summer, unless the unexpected happens, the worst case scenarios will no longer be scary and there's no reason we can't all crack on.
It's more than personal values. Our liberal democratic structures, which defines our rights and liberties etc, over-arch everything. These rights and liberties are not personal values, they are not fetishes, they are categorical imperatives. I'm astonished that what has happened can be legal. No government should have the power to override liberal democracy for a natural occurrence such as a virus.
This is a government which does not fundamentally believe in the principles underlying liberal democracy, let alone that they are categorical imperatives.
I have been boring on - and no doubt boring everyone on here - about this for some time.
The last thing you do is bore anyone
Your posts are very welcome and you and your family have been greatly affected by covid and all the restrictions
It is rather unfair in some ways as my wife and I live in a lovely home with south facing garden within 100yards of the sea and views of the mountains behind. We do not want for anything and as pensioners (77 and 81) who have travelled round the world many times and undertaken lots of cruises, we are now content not to want to travel anymore
Apart from out eldest son and his wife in Vancouver, all the rest of our family including our four grandchildren live close by and we have had both our Pfizer vaccinations
It is therefore at times that we feel somewhat guilty that we are so fortunate and can understand the agonies, frustration, fears and anger of so many and all we can do is pray that this covid crisis eases for everyone as per the roadmap and nobody is restricted from their freedoms one minute more than is necessary
Good post Big G - just one thing - , when you say "we are now content not to want to travel anymore" can I assume you do not seek to restrict others that do?
Absolutely not.
The freedoms we have enjoyed in worldwide travel should and must be available to everyone again.
Ironically, today is my granddaughter's 9th birthday and my wife and I should have been in Manaus on the Amazon but cancelled the cruise due to her predicted delivery datu
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
tbf, I thought the EU commission have fucked up, and don't have a leg to stand on, but every time I come on here and read the rabid ravings of some of the europhobic posters I start feeling maybe they should ban exports. you should be happy that nobody else on the continent reads this blog...
I am offended. I got the impression Macron visits daily, posing as Nigel Formain. Oh well
I got the impression that Dave Keating visits daily, posing as Scott_xP.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
Yes, when an ex prime minister of Luxembourg, known for his excessive drinking, comes across as a lost political giant, you know an institution is in trouble
Blimey have tuned in to PB this morning to see that everyone has turned into @contrarian.
About time. What many failed to see and are now realising is that red lines can be ignored, and others' scoffed at. Until. Your own red lines are the ones being breached.
If I may be allowed to quote myself:
"People scream on here: "but lockdowns work. Go Government". As if that is the most important aspect to all this legislation.
And before they know it they are faced with some measure or other which breeches their own red lines and then they say "well they can't do that". But they already have. And then they look around frantically for Steve Baker of all people to come and rescue them/us all."
Contrarian has been railing against restrictions at a time when cases and deaths were going through the roof and there was a real danger of hospitals being overwhelmed within weeks. That's a minority view, on here and in the country.
The extension of emergency powers to the autumn, when any sensible analysis suggests they should not, in all probability, be needed makes many of us queasy. I supported the January lockdown. I'm fine with the pretty cautious opening up plan. I want to see some very good reasons why legislation needs extending now. As we've seen before, steps can be taken quickly if needed, we don't need to be agreeing these powers now.
You are proving my point. You think it was justified then but not now. Because your view of freedoms and legislation incorporate and justify taking such action then as though it is the only logical thing to have done. "Everyone agrees..."
But someone else's red line was back then and they thought the actions the government took were beyond what was justified given the circumstances. Were they right or wrong? Are you right or wrong? Is the key metric 10 lives or 10,000 lives? Irrelevant. It is the principle that is important. The government used and is using draconian powers to legislate (away) our freedoms.
Watch again that Tory MP and his pint of milk. Seems bonkers. Actually it is particularly acute and relevant.
I'll leave Contrarian to one side, if I may, as his/her arguments also include a bit of denialism in my view. Sometimes, I do find that Contrarian is plain wrong. Stocky was writing yesterday, arguing that what we've done this time was wrong because we can't do it every time. Stocky finds (I hope I'm interpreting right, apologies if not) that the enforced restriction of liberty is just too much, even though the threat is very real. That's not wrong, it's personal values. I'm on the other side of that debate to Stocky, but I can respect the argument and Stocky is in no way wrong.
As you say, we all have our tipping point. For some, we all need to stay locked down/restricted until we can be sure opening up will not cause any more deaths. For me, that's absurd. We don't lock down for flu every year. We don't set the speed limit to 20mph everywhere. We accept risks for benefits. We accept deaths for freedoms. I think we could probably go a bit quicker than planned, but I accept there are uncertainties and the government has been burned on this before, so I can accept the caution.
I'm not on SAGE, nor an expert in infectious disease, but I have worked with PHE/Dept of Health on projections for noncommunicable diseases. Don't get too concerned about the pessimistic reports. PHE/the government always want the worst case scenarios in addition to various 'realistic' scenarios. They like the certainty of a worst case scenario - as a scientist you're basically telling them there are lots of ifs, buts and maybes in all the other scenarios and it depends on actions and a lot of random, unpredictable factors. But with the worst case scenario you're essentially saying to them, I'm certain, it won't get worse than this. They tend to fixate on that certainty and ignore much of the rest (which can be frustrating!). When the worst case scenarios are no longer that troubling, that's when the politicians in charge of this will relax.
The public pessimism at the moment, I think, is designed to get people to stick with the restrictions as they're lifted under the current plan. We're not yet far enough with vaccinations to stop another wave of cases, at least. The unvaccinated are those more likely to spread and more likely to be infected. I expect the numbers will show that we could still get hospitals into trouble if the unvaccinated population goes crazy. We do need people to keep following restrictions now (although, as suggested yesterday by Andy Cooke, I think, it would be nice to loosen up earlier on outside stuff which is low risk). Come the summer, unless the unexpected happens, the worst case scenarios will no longer be scary and there's no reason we can't all crack on.
It's more than personal values. Our liberal democratic structures, which defines our rights and liberties etc, over-arch everything. These rights and liberties are not personal values, they are not fetishes, they are categorical imperatives. I'm astonished that what has happened can be legal. No government should have the power to override liberal democracy for a natural occurrence such as a virus.
So, @Stocky, I still don't quite get what you mean by the charge that the government overrode liberal democracy to fight the virus.
Maybe if we look at a practical example. When this thing kicked off on March 23 with Johnson's seminal "Stay at Home" broadcast - initiating what came to be known as Lockdown - are you saying that iyo this ought to have been a request not an instruction?
That codifying the restrictions in law was a violation of our liberal democracy?
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ?
That’s an estimate I took from a Neil Ferguson interview. If anyone would be able to give an estimate I guess it would be him. Also antibodies will not give the full picture - they fade, T-Cells etc etc. It is an estimate
Blood doner testing puts it much lower.
And for all age groups, ~40% of the population are seropositive from either infection/vaccination, whilst seropositivity due to infection has remained stable at 15% for the past month pic.twitter.com/vjlKktbmue
Given that in Brazil, in areas that were totally over run by COVID in the first wave, they are finding 25% of the population caught COVID, numbers above that are somewhat difficult to believe....
15% instinctively feels more correct than 25% to me. Meanwhile Czechia KNOWS it is at least 14% !
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
tbf, I thought the EU commission have fucked up, and don't have a leg to stand on, but every time I come on here and read the rabid ravings of some of the europhobic posters I start feeling maybe they should ban exports. you should be happy that nobody else on the continent reads this blog...
I am offended. I got the impression Macron visits daily, posing as Nigel Formain. Oh well
Goddammit, I thought if I came here in the mornings I would avoid you!
But I'll let you off because of your friendly words the other day, so thanks for that.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
Indeed, just as there was a popular element in America prepared to vote for Donald Trump.
The increasing similarities between Trump and the way vdL etc are acting is eery.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ? Edit Though 0 - 15 should still be a "virgin sample" I think.
(Others with better knowledge may correct, but as I understand it) vaccination will give different test results to infection. The vaccine stimulates antibodies targeting the spike protein (only). Infection will stimulate production of antibodies for other parts too. So you'll have a different mix of antibodies if infected compared to if vaccinated.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
I've just realised something. Nigel Farage hasn't stuck his oar in on vaccines. Thankfully, he seems to be silent on this.
When you are in the position the you are *more* stupid than Nigel Farage.....
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
I am not convinced he has any liberal tendencies, and recent developments, particularly the draconian policing bill reinforce that view -though it is possible he has been too lazy to read or understand what his ministers are implementing . He is solely driven by his ego and ambition.
Yes, I think so. We've never had a PM quite like this. It's unchartered territory. I hope we can get through it with body & soul intact.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ?
That’s an estimate I took from a Neil Ferguson interview. If anyone would be able to give an estimate I guess it would be him. Also antibodies will not give the full picture - they fade, T-Cells etc etc. It is an estimate
Blood doner testing puts it much lower.
And for all age groups, ~40% of the population are seropositive from either infection/vaccination, whilst seropositivity due to infection has remained stable at 15% for the past month pic.twitter.com/vjlKktbmue
That would have to be weighted for population demographics (it may have been already). Even after that I'd be suspicious how representative. Donors and non-donors will differ in other ways that may affect infection risk.
PS: What's a "blood doner"? Some kind of demonic offspring from a kebab and a black pudding?
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
The British take has been adopted, in whole of in part, by English speaking media around the world.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
tbf, I thought the EU commission have fucked up, and don't have a leg to stand on, but every time I come on here and read the rabid ravings of some of the europhobic posters I start feeling maybe they should ban exports. you should be happy that nobody else on the continent reads this blog...
I think the travails/villainy of the EU is being rather overegged, on PB in particular. Most of it is just rhetoric and political gamesmanship. Oddly, the same posters who cooed with satisfaction when Boris employed this tactic with his 'No Deal it is' bombast, are now in meltdown when the EU does likewise. They need to step back.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
Yes, when an ex prime minister of Luxembourg, known for his excessive drinking, comes across as a lost political giant, you know an institution is in trouble
Juncker as the Charles Kennedy of Europe?
Especially considering as much as Kennedy was mocked by his political opponents, his successor in his seat was Ian Blackford.
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
I am not convinced he has any liberal tendencies, and recent developments, particularly the draconian policing bill reinforce that view -though it is possible he has been too lazy to read or understand what his ministers are implementing . He is solely driven by his ego and ambition.
Yes, I think so. We've never had a PM quite like this. It's unchartered territory. I hope we can get through it with body & soul intact.
I think he has "brand Boris"/getting re-elected/not getting toppled as leader tendencies.
And if brand Boris isn't about bringing the good times back and getting us all down the pub then I've been sadly mistaken.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
Yes, when an ex prime minister of Luxembourg, known for his excessive drinking, comes across as a lost political giant, you know an institution is in trouble
I was living in India at the time, and not following the news at all, but when someone told me Princess Diana (or "Lady Dee" as they put it) had died, I started reading the English language Asian Age newspaper every day for a while which had a lot of UK news in it. As a republican, I was happy to see that there seemed to be widespread disgust with the royal family. "Finally, people's eyes are opening. The monarchy will soon be finished", I thought to myself. 24 years later and it's still going. The EU is maybe an institution like the royal family, everybody knows it's crap and populated by mediocrities at best but it's tolerated because they think getting rid of it would be worse.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
The reports coming out of Europe via Euronews indicate the peoples of Europe are very angry with their own governments and the EU and that the UK is not the focus of their attacks
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
I've just realised something. Nigel Farage hasn't stuck his oar in on vaccines. Thankfully, he seems to be silent on this.
When you are in the position the you are *more* stupid than Nigel Farage.....
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
Yes, when an ex prime minister of Luxembourg, known for his excessive drinking, comes across as a lost political giant, you know an institution is in trouble
Juncker as the Charles Kennedy of Europe?
Especially considering as much as Kennedy was mocked by his political opponents, his successor in his seat was Ian Blackford.
Sad, isn't it. If ever a man died of a broken heart. Wife and career both gone.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
tbf, I thought the EU commission have fucked up, and don't have a leg to stand on, but every time I come on here and read the rabid ravings of some of the europhobic posters I start feeling maybe they should ban exports. you should be happy that nobody else on the continent reads this blog...
I am offended. I got the impression Macron visits daily, posing as Nigel Formain. Oh well
Goddammit, I thought if I came here in the mornings I would avoid you!
But I'll let you off because of your friendly words the other day, so thanks for that.
lol. Guten tag to you too. I hope when this is all over we can sit in a beer garden in Berlin and drink a cold one with a currywurst. I love currywurst
I also love Europe. I have friends and family in the EU. We are all European. I want you guys to get vaccinated as fast as possible, not least so you won’t mutate and reinfect us, all over again
The idea of a vaccine war between us is as crazy as it is depressing. I accept our media does not help, but European politicians are just as bad (president ‘quasi-ineffective Macron, FFS)
I have a bet made three years ago with @MaxPB that Die Linke and AfD combined will get less than 35% between them at their next General Election (he thought over).
It is remarkable how much CDU and SDP have collapsed but its not gone to Die Linke or AfD.
The reports coming out of Europe via Euronews indicate the peoples of Europe are very angry with their own governments and the EU and that the UK is not the focus of their attacks
You don't have to be angry with the UK to support an export ban or think the situation is unfair though. I'm quite sure if the situation was reversed plenty of people would be saying "it's not the EU's fault, our government screwed up, but our government's job is to look after us first so we need to take those vaccines."
Not surprising given the nature of the Scottish local gmt multimember wards and the anomalies one gets with by elections when the position is vacated by the 2nd or 3rd elected in the previous election.
NB the drop in the Conservative and increase in the SNP vote.
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
He was too slow to lock down at the start and now he's in danger of going too far in the opposite direction. I agree that having T May in Downing Street would probably have been better.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
The reports coming out of Europe via Euronews indicate the peoples of Europe are very angry with their own governments and the EU and that the UK is not the focus of their attacks
Indeed, the UK doesn't really register one way or the other, in my experience. For most people, Brexit is something that happened a long time ago - around about the same time as Portugal won the European football championship, so ancient history. And people are about as likely to unfavourably compare vaccination rates with Israel as with the UK.
I'm not sure an actual vaccine ban export to the UK would actually register that much either tbh - unless people thought it directly led to them getting vaccinated sooner (or later!).
Not surprising given the nature of the Scottish local gmt multimember wards and the anomalies one gets with by elections when the position is vacated by the 2nd or 3rd elected in the previous election.
NB the drop in the Conservative and increase in the SNP vote.
The Greens got 5% last time and there was no Green candidate this time, so clearly those Greens went SNP, Labour got 4% this time and there was no Labour candidate last time so clearly some Tory voters last time went Labour (the LD vote was also up slightly)
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
I am not convinced he has any liberal tendencies, and recent developments, particularly the draconian policing bill reinforce that view -though it is possible he has been too lazy to read or understand what his ministers are implementing . He is solely driven by his ego and ambition.
Yes, I think so. We've never had a PM quite like this. It's unchartered territory. I hope we can get through it with body & soul intact.
I think he has "brand Boris"/getting re-elected/not getting toppled as leader tendencies.
And if brand Boris isn't about bringing the good times back and getting us all down the pub then I've been sadly mistaken.
That's my take too. Work out the line of least resistance to an outcome which (i) strengthens his personal position right now and (ii) maintains his popularity with the voter demographic he assesses he needs the most to be re-elected, and bingo, that is what he will do. Much money is to be made on the betting front by applying this technique. It would be more difficult and interesting if (i) and (ii) were in conflict, but I don't think they are atm.
If you dont like it, dont use it. If you dont want to read abuse, mute it, if you dont want people to comment block comments. Twitter is a cess pit. Twitter like it that way.
Not surprising given the nature of the Scottish local gmt multimember wards and the anomalies one gets with by elections when the position is vacated by the 2nd or 3rd elected in the previous election.
NB the drop in the Conservative and increase in the SNP vote.
The Greens got 5% last time and there was no Green candidate this time, so clearly those Greens went SNP, Labour got 4% this time and there was no Labour candidate last time so clearly some Tory voters last time went Labour (the LD vote was also up slightly)
Not much evidence for this unionist tactical voting we're been hearing about?
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
He was too slow to lock down at the start and now he's in danger of going too far in the opposite direction. I agree that having T May in Downing Street would probably have been better.
Depends, May -ves Dreadfully slow at u-turning from clear errors. +ves More diligent than Boris.
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
Yes, when an ex prime minister of Luxembourg, known for his excessive drinking, comes across as a lost political giant, you know an institution is in trouble
I was living in India at the time, and not following the news at all, but when someone told me Princess Diana (or "Lady Dee" as they put it) had died, I started reading the English language Asian Age newspaper every day for a while which had a lot of UK news in it. As a republican, I was happy to see that there seemed to be widespread disgust with the royal family. "Finally, people's eyes are opening. The monarchy will soon be finished", I thought to myself. 24 years later and it's still going. The EU is maybe an institution like the royal family, everybody knows it's crap and populated by mediocrities at best but it's tolerated because they think getting rid of it would be worse.
I know what you mean but the analogy is inexact. The British monarchy is 1500 years old, it goes right back to Athelstan, Alfred, Offa the Great, and the god Woden. It is woven through British - English, welsh. Scottish and Irish - history, since the mists of the Dark Ages. It has endured invasion and conquest, civil wars, regicide, world war, and several plagues. And it is still there. Closely wound with every national institution, the embodiment of the nation - in a glorious medley of fine music, ancient tradition, religious belief, scurrilous gossip, grand architecture, sexual misbehavior and really beautiful gardens.
Destroying it to replace it with a republic would be like tearing down a magnificent Gothic cathedral to make way for much needed office space. There may be a practical argument, but it just isn’t going to happen. The cathedral reassures in its endurance, even if bits of it keep falling off.
The EU commission is not so ancient or beloved. Tho I agree it may survive out of sheer apathy.
It's the infantile nature of protesting people not adhering to your faith (or your interpretation of your faith) that always gets me.
People of faith include some of the very best people I know, but theyll come across a lot of things contrary to their faith every damn day and most accept that. Perhaps theyll even proselytize to change things, no problem.
If your faith is strong it can survive the existence of non believers, infidels and apostates without your mind blowing, even if they offend you.
At least in terms of the Christian Wars of Religion following the Reformation, and persecution of heretics before, you are missing the point.
It's not the individual's faith that is threatened by a non-believer. It's the very security and survival of the community, because the devoutly religious believed that God will punish them collectively for the sin of the heretic.
If you believe that famine is a punishment from God, then it's easy to blame the heretic for that punishment.
I do not know where Islam is on the continuum of being able to tolerate heresy. It seems considerably closer to the 17th century then Christianity - but toleration is surprisingly recent for Christianity too, and arguably an incomplete process.
(With apologies to David Crowther of the History of England for anything that I've mangled from his podcasts)
I'm certainly not missing the point in the slightest, because I'm not talking about how people might reasonably feel about the security and survival of their religious community in the past when the material stakes were much higher, and historic tolerances, I am talking about now.
The history of it all is fascinating, but now is not then. Someone of a particular faith in this country is not in danger from the majority not sharing their views. They might still feel a general imperative that all should share their faith, hence they can proselytize, but neither they nor their community are threatened in how they practice their faith and have no grounds, none, to impose the restrictions of their own faith of their community on to others.
And that is what it is. They cannot impose a faith or its restrictions. And they try to present whinging about that as that community being under attack.
But most people of the major faiths in this country seem to get by just fine knowing there are people who do not share their faith, and that some of what others believe and so will offend them. They may devoutly think that the national community, the world, will suffer as a result and they will seek to change the behaviour of others as a result. And that is totally fine by me. But
What is not fine, is pretending their community is imperrilled by the actions of others not following their precepts. Because which bits they decide imperill it seem to be pretty limited, so I call foul on the idea they are concerned, in general, about the overall community.
Not surprising given the nature of the Scottish local gmt multimember wards and the anomalies one gets with by elections when the position is vacated by the 2nd or 3rd elected in the previous election.
NB the drop in the Conservative and increase in the SNP vote.
The Greens got 5% last time and there was no Green candidate this time, so clearly those Greens went SNP, Labour got 4% this time and there was no Labour candidate last time so clearly some Tory voters last time went Labour (the LD vote was also up slightly)
Not much evidence for this unionist tactical voting we're been hearing about?
Technically it was a Conservative gain from the SNP anyway, so was not needed as it is such a strong Tory ward and the SNP only won it last time lower down the STV list
FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.
Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
I don't hate the comparison at all. If anything it's worse than you say. Then some MPs were trying to ignore a democratic vote. This time people have voted for this useless shower of authoritarians.
People are obsessing about flags and singing Britons never shall be slaves at the Proms while obediently agreeing to be slaves.
Daily temperature tests indeed.
They can fuck right off.
Vaccines are meant to be our way out of this. Not a tunnel into ever more restrictions and controls.
If any of that were to happen, then I agree entirely they can fuck off. And I would quit the party again, as I quit it the last time we had an authoritarian as party leader.
I simply do not believe it will happen. I might be in denial, but I just don't believe it is possible that will be done.
Restrictions to end 21/6, no ifs no buts. That's my line.
Or what? You will quit the party. Who cares. I quit the party last year and they seem to have managed to put it behind them and are going from strength to strength.
Absolutely, but that's what I can do.
HYUFD likes to take pride in the fact that he has a 100% Tory voting record and I don't, but as far as I'm concerned the Party needs to win my vote not the other way around. Three times in my life I've not voted Conservative: 2001 (Labour with a pinched nose), 2002 or 2003 local elections (Lib Dem) and 2019 European Parliament (Brexit with a very pinched nose). When that's happened the party has changed not long after to improve.
If the Conservatives become authoritarian then I will vote Lib Dem or some other party. That's all I can do.
I was idly mulling over how the pandemic would have been if it had happened whilst May was PM. I suspect that - given her track record at the Home Office - we would have been locked down tighter than a nun's chuff. And would have been coming out of that lockdown about 2025.
The problems we have with Boris is his reluctance to bow to the inevitable closures and lockdowns because, yes it buggers the economy, but also because it affronts his innate liberal sensibilities. I honestly can't see him locking us down a day longer than he thinks he can without being held responsible for a third wave.
The reason "Boris" acted too slowly with the 1st wave had nothing to do with his liberal tendencies. It was his "too lazy to focus properly" tendencies.
I am not convinced he has any liberal tendencies, and recent developments, particularly the draconian policing bill reinforce that view -though it is possible he has been too lazy to read or understand what his ministers are implementing . He is solely driven by his ego and ambition.
Yes, I think so. We've never had a PM quite like this. It's unchartered territory. I hope we can get through it with body & soul intact.
I think he has "brand Boris"/getting re-elected/not getting toppled as leader tendencies.
And if brand Boris isn't about bringing the good times back and getting us all down the pub then I've been sadly mistaken.
That's my take too. Work out the line of least resistance to an outcome which (i) strengthens his personal position right now and (ii) maintains his popularity with the voter demographic he assesses he needs the most to be re-elected, and bingo, that is what he will do. Much money is to be made on the betting front by applying this technique. It would be more difficult and interesting if (i) and (ii) were in conflict, but I don't think they are atm.
Hello kinabalu - I'd like to test your Not Happening Event radar, since I'm getting the strong feeling that the most intrusive measures being floated right now that people are getting het up about are NHEs. If anything, they're a form of psychological nudge to get people to keep taking things seriously during the current unlocking. What's your take?
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
So is the EU going to ban Novavax exports when it starts to register they have no orders?
It would be interesting but aiui the Czechia manufacturing is a really tiny pilot line they used for trial doses and testing the process. The main manufacturing is being done in the UK, US and India.
Just been looking at the COVID data on Worldometer and I notice there are some quite big differences in deaths as a percentage of cases within Europe. Obviously that stat is heavily influenced by the amount of testing going on, but even so I find it curious that we're towards the top of the list given we've been quite good on testing.
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Italy and the UK were both utterly clobbered by the first wave - our 'shown' CFR was ~ 13% at one point I remember.
It’s estimated that 25-30% of us have had it. We’ve done some hard yards.
Isn't it almost impossible to tell the true total that has had it now we're into mass vaccinations now wrt antibodies ? Edit Though 0 - 15 should still be a "virgin sample" I think.
They can tell whether antibodies are either "infection alone" or "infection or vaccination"
This does run into the problem that in some people, antibody levels fall faster than in others. Although we can adjust to estimate for that from studies as to how often that happens:
Especially considering as much as Kennedy was mocked by his political opponents, his successor in his seat was Ian Blackford.
I always rather liked Juncker. He seemed to have a good mischievous sense of humour. I'm sure he'd be great company for an evening of moules frites at a bistro near the Grand' Place, or at one of the swanky Michelin-starred restaurants in Brussels. And you could be sure that the staff would know him well!
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The Europeans I know, who are living here and so should be rather more exposed to UK news than the average resident of the EU think she's behaving badly but has a good point. I would be amazed if the average man on the Tiergarten omnibus wasn't much more in line with her views.
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
I've just realised something. Nigel Farage hasn't stuck his oar in on vaccines. Thankfully, he seems to be silent on this.
When you are in the position the you are *more* stupid than Nigel Farage.....
Farage didn't even get worked up about the Brexit deal - I think he's given up.
It’s not as if the pinch point for 12% of global trade just got blocked, or anything like that.
Yeah, but I'd be surprised if much wood pulp is travelling through the Suez. Always ready to be proved wrong.
Not sure whether the ships used to transport wood pulp are the same as used for the trade through Suez, but if everything takes an extra ten days in each direction while the canal is closed then less stuff overall will be transported. Maybe that would be less wood pulp on a different route with the ships diverted to serve the Suez trade.
Not that I'm concerned. We still have months of our Brexit stockpile.
Not surprising given the nature of the Scottish local gmt multimember wards and the anomalies one gets with by elections when the position is vacated by the 2nd or 3rd elected in the previous election.
NB the drop in the Conservative and increase in the SNP vote.
The Greens got 5% last time and there was no Green candidate this time, so clearly those Greens went SNP, Labour got 4% this time and there was no Labour candidate last time so clearly some Tory voters last time went Labour (the LD vote was also up slightly)
Not much evidence for this unionist tactical voting we're been hearing about?
Technically it was a Conservative gain from the SNP anyway, so was not needed as it is such a strong Tory ward and the SNP only won it last time lower down the STV list
Going to be more difficult to interpret the Midlothian one because of the previous presence of a well-known local chap as an Independent on the original slate. About 14 percentage points going spare there, assuming same turnout (which is probably wrong).
How about providing a not-for-profit vaccine freely licenced (like the UK)?
She lies every time she opens her mouth. Or perhaps she simply does not understand that the EU does not own private property located within the confines of the EU.
The lack of challenge to the narrative is depressing. The media has just turned into a copy/paste of press releases.
There are plenty of Europeans who don’t buy her bullshit. See social media. They can read British media (like Macron, daily) and see an entirely different but very plausible take. And this British take has spread around the world, thanks to the EU doing inexcusably nutty things, like banning AZ at the same time as it seizes it.
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
Yes, when an ex prime minister of Luxembourg, known for his excessive drinking, comes across as a lost political giant, you know an institution is in trouble
I was living in India at the time, and not following the news at all, but when someone told me Princess Diana (or "Lady Dee" as they put it) had died, I started reading the English language Asian Age newspaper every day for a while which had a lot of UK news in it. As a republican, I was happy to see that there seemed to be widespread disgust with the royal family. "Finally, people's eyes are opening. The monarchy will soon be finished", I thought to myself. 24 years later and it's still going. The EU is maybe an institution like the royal family, everybody knows it's crap and populated by mediocrities at best but it's tolerated because they think getting rid of it would be worse.
I know what you mean but the analogy is inexact. The British monarchy is 1500 years old, it goes right back to Athelstan, Alfred, Offa the Great, and the god Woden. It is woven through British - English, welsh. Scottish and Irish - history, since the mists of the Dark Ages. It has endured invasion and conquest, civil wars, regicide, world war, and several plagues. And it is still there. Closely wound with every national institution, the embodiment of the nation - in a glorious medley of fine music, ancient tradition, religious belief, scurrilous gossip, grand architecture, sexual misbehavior and really beautiful gardens.
Destroying it to replace it with a republic would be like tearing down a magnificent Gothic cathedral to make way for much needed office space. There may be a practical argument, but it just isn’t going to happen. The cathedral reassures in its endurance, even if bits of it keep falling off.
The EU commission is not so ancient or beloved. Tho I agree it may survive out of sheer apathy.
I think you've fallen for the mythology, common to all nationalist ideologies, that the institutions and customs of their "nation" are ancient, eternal even. The British monarchy is only a couple of years older than the EU commission.
Comments
I suspect that if I had my time again I'd go for contact lenses!
When thinking about the betting, this is the thing I can't form a view on.
Lots of talk about "new normals" after the pandemic but it's my firm opinion that most of it will not come to pass. Vaxports for international travel? Probably. But for pubs? No way. Not a chance of that happening on any scale. Stay with masks and social distancing? Yes, to an extent, because it's become a habit, but it will be voluntary. And certainly no lockdown-lite next winter unless there's some totally unexpected and malign turn of events.
It's clear to me that the end-state being targeted is for Covid to join the cast of characters in the world of nasty diseases that we have to live with. I don't see any reason to doubt that this is where we are heading, courtesy of vaccines. This has been such a drag, it really has, and so I understand why some people are getting twitchy, fearing the authorities might backslide and maintain restrictions on a semi-permanent basis, but I see no rational basis for such a fear.
USA doses 39.86 / 100
332,420,890
USA deaths 1165
Cases 67046
UK doses 46.79 / 100
UK Equivalent deaths 238; UK Reported 63
UK Equivalent cases 13,744 ; UK reported 6,220
Country: cases, deaths, deaths as a percentage of cases
Bulgaria: 321,104, 12,512, 3.9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 160,163, 6,144, 3.8%
Hungary: 614,612, 19,499, 3.2%
Greece: 247,992, 7,701, 3.1%
Italy: 3,464,543, 106,799, 3.1%
UK: 4,319,128, 126,445, 2.9%
North Macedonia: 123,491, 3,574, 2.9%
Germany: 2,732,130, 76,116, 2.8%
Belgium: 854,608, 22,816, 2.7%
Slovakia: 355,454, 9,373, 2.6%
Romania: 919,794, 22,719, 2.5%
Poland: 2,189,966, 51,305, 2.3%
Europe: 38,497,158, 894,599, 2.3%
Spain: 3,247,738, 74,420, 2.3%
Croatia: 264,111, 5,854, 2.2%
Gibraltar: 4,272, 94, 2.2%
Russia: 4,501,859, 97,017, 2.2%
Channel Islands: 4,046, 86, 2.1%
Liechtenstein: 2,642, 56, 2.1%
Moldova: 222,120, 4,702, 2.1%
France: 4,424,087, 93,378, 2.1%
Portugal: 819,210, 16,814, 2.1%
Ireland: 232,758, 4,631, 2.0%
Ukraine: 1,614,707, 31,461, 1.9%
Slovenia: 210,785, 4,008, 1.9%
Latvia: 100,114, 1,867, 1.9%
San Marino: 4,484, 82, 1.8%
Albania: 122,767, 2,184, 1.8%
Austria: 526,393, 9,178, 1.7%
Switzerland: 590,164, 10,284, 1.7%
Sweden: 773,690, 13,373, 1.7%
Czechia: 1,503,307, 25,639, 1.7%
Isle of Man: 1,545, 26, 1.7%
Lithuania: 212,676, 3,529, 1.7%
Montenegro: 88,991, 1,230, 1.4%
Netherlands: 1,228,647, 16,397, 1.3%
Malta: 28,612, 378, 1.3%
Monaco: 2,227, 28, 1.3%
Luxembourg: 60,205, 736, 1.2%
Finland: 74,754, 815, 1.1%
Denmark: 227,894, 2,405, 1.1%
Andorra: 11,687, 114, 1.0%
Serbia: 571,895, 5,075, 0.9%
Estonia: 101,587, 847, 0.8%
Norway: 90,935, 656, 0.7%
Belarus: 316,418, 2,202, 0.7%
Iceland: 6,158, 29, 0.5%
Faeroe Islands: 661, 1, 0.2%
Vatican City: 27, 0, 0.0%
It's not the individual's faith that is threatened by a non-believer. It's the very security and survival of the community, because the devoutly religious believed that God will punish them collectively for the sin of the heretic.
If you believe that famine is a punishment from God, then it's easy to blame the heretic for that punishment.
I do not know where Islam is on the continuum of being able to tolerate heresy. It seems considerably closer to the 17th century then Christianity - but toleration is surprisingly recent for Christianity too, and arguably an incomplete process.
(With apologies to David Crowther of the History of England for anything that I've mangled from his podcasts)
Non-essential workplaces would also have been asked to close for 5 days, but again as most of these would be anyway more or less closed at the weekend and on the Friday and Monday which are public holidays, I can't see how it would have helped much. I mean even 5 real days wouldn't make much difference, so 5 days 4 of which are anyway holidays is a complete waste of time.
Plus they went back on the proposed ban on in-person religious services over Easter. Probably the only bit of the proposals that made any sense (easy for me to say, having never been to an Easter service in my life), but it shows how powerful the churches are in Germany that this ban was also scrapped.
Merkel's (and Germany's) problem is that having done almost nothing for a whole year, she finds she no longer has any authority to try and persuade people to do even small things now.
The situation is deteriorating so rapidly that I guess the Bundesländer will just start imposing more emergency measures within a few days without necessarily getting agreement with others.
Sack current generation of politicians who don't understand pubs he tells Julia HB.
Edit Though 0 - 15 should still be a "virgin sample" I think.
Another thing is some of those countries have had very big increases in cases in recent weeks, so deaths have yet to catch up.
But there's still some interesting differences.
Also on testing figures I would be careful, I have seen UK testing figures including rapid tests compared with eg German figures that only include PCR tests - afaik there is no kind of official count of rapid tests in Germany, but a lot are happening, often provided by local authorities (and a positive one will usually be followed by a PCR test to confirm). If you compare PCR tests only then the UK is still doing more per capita than Germany, but the difference is far less.
https://twitter.com/thierryhenry/status/1375405445108674571?s=21
I'd agree with you that Johnson isn't a liberal or libertarian in any true sense of the word. He's a libertine instead and so will only appear liberal when it relates to a principal that stops him from doing something he wants.
https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1374866466885885952
Ursula knows she will be remembered for this. She’s flubbed the biggest job in the history of the EU. They must be panicking in the Commission. I do feel sorry for them as individuals, it was the nature of the institution that bedeviled them. There was no personal malice aforethought.
Tho they are now clearly lying
Take Portugal, currently showing 2.1% in that chart but they're excess death toll was 50% higher than their reported death toll.
The one that is surprising is France. They've got lots of cases, no excess beyond what was reported, but a low toll percentage. I don't know what that is for France.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
The contrast in quality between VDL and Junckers comments yesterday was stark.
The freedoms we have enjoyed in worldwide travel should and must be available to everyone again.
Ironically, today is my granddaughter's 9th birthday and my wife and I should have been in Manaus on the Amazon but cancelled the cruise due to her predicted delivery datu
As for the British take, I think you're somewhat over estimating the current UK government's reputation around the world for honesty and good behaviour.
I strongly suspect that an EU vaccine export ban would be hugely popular in the EU. That doesn't make it right or sensible, but it's foolish to think that there's some upsurge of EU citizens determined to protect the UK and other countries' contractual rights to vaccines produced in the EU while they're dying in their thousands.
Maybe if we look at a practical example. When this thing kicked off on March 23 with Johnson's seminal "Stay at Home" broadcast - initiating what came to be known as Lockdown - are you saying that iyo this ought to have been a request not an instruction?
That codifying the restrictions in law was a violation of our liberal democracy?
15% instinctively feels more correct than 25% to me. Meanwhile Czechia KNOWS it is at least 14% !
But I'll let you off because of your friendly words the other day, so thanks for that.
The increasing similarities between Trump and the way vdL etc are acting is eery.
Thankfully the UK twice rejected Corbyn-Trump.
When you are in the position the you are *more* stupid than Nigel Farage.....
PS: What's a "blood doner"? Some kind of demonic offspring from a kebab and a black pudding?
https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/eu-threatens-vaccine-export-ban-prompting-uk-australian-backlash
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/europe-with-millions-of-doses-unused-is-divided-on-export-ban-11616070164715.html
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/australia-asks-eu-to-stop-blocking-vaccine-exports-1.5334876
I agree the EU’s insane position must be popular with many of its stupider citizens
Especially considering as much as Kennedy was mocked by his political opponents, his successor in his seat was Ian Blackford.
And if brand Boris isn't about bringing the good times back and getting us all down the pub then I've been sadly mistaken.
As a republican, I was happy to see that there seemed to be widespread disgust with the royal family. "Finally, people's eyes are opening. The monarchy will soon be finished", I thought to myself.
24 years later and it's still going.
The EU is maybe an institution like the royal family, everybody knows it's crap and populated by mediocrities at best but it's tolerated because they think getting rid of it would be worse.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1375392374948556800
Will we get within a hundred of that before being bowled out? Not optimistic.
I also love Europe. I have friends and family in the EU. We are all European. I want you guys to get vaccinated as fast as possible, not least so you won’t mutate and reinfect us, all over again
The idea of a vaccine war between us is as crazy as it is depressing. I accept our media does not help, but European politicians are just as bad (president ‘quasi-ineffective Macron, FFS)
Anyway. Prost!
I have a bet made three years ago with @MaxPB that Die Linke and AfD combined will get less than 35% between them at their next General Election (he thought over).
It is remarkable how much CDU and SDP have collapsed but its not gone to Die Linke or AfD.
NB the drop in the Conservative and increase in the SNP vote.
I'm not sure an actual vaccine ban export to the UK would actually register that much either tbh - unless people thought it directly led to them getting vaccinated sooner (or later!).
-ves Dreadfully slow at u-turning from clear errors.
+ves More diligent than Boris.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1375417584158408705?s=19
Destroying it to replace it with a republic would be like tearing down a magnificent Gothic cathedral to make way for much needed office space. There may be a practical argument, but it just isn’t going to happen. The cathedral reassures in its endurance, even if bits of it keep falling off.
The EU commission is not so ancient or beloved. Tho I agree it may survive out of sheer apathy.
The history of it all is fascinating, but now is not then. Someone of a particular faith in this country is not in danger from the majority not sharing their views. They might still feel a general imperative that all should share their faith, hence they can proselytize, but neither they nor their community are threatened in how they practice their faith and have no grounds, none, to impose the restrictions of their own faith of their community on to others.
And that is what it is. They cannot impose a faith or its restrictions. And they try to present whinging about that as that community being under attack.
But most people of the major faiths in this country seem to get by just fine knowing there are people who do not share their faith, and that some of what others believe and so will offend them. They may devoutly think that the national community, the world, will suffer as a result and they will seek to change the behaviour of others as a result. And that is totally fine by me. But
What is not fine, is pretending their community is imperrilled by the actions of others not following their precepts. Because which bits they decide imperill it seem to be pretty limited, so I call foul on the idea they are concerned, in general, about the overall community.
This does run into the problem that in some people, antibody levels fall faster than in others. Although we can adjust to estimate for that from studies as to how often that happens:
Not that I'm concerned. We still have months of our Brexit stockpile.