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After their party’s flops at WH2020 and the Senate run-offs Georgia’s Republicans act to make it mor
After their party’s flops at WH2020 and the Senate run-offs Georgia’s Republicans act to make it more difficult to vote – politicalbetting.com
The Washington Post reports:
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Would that make me more likely to vote for them?
Yes.
But we are not common beasts... the FDP trades at +/-5% in Germany which is about right for a sensible liberal party in the modern world
https://amp.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/3126760/could-coronavirus-have-come-lab-theory-was-too
I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.
No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.
I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.
It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.
It's pathetic what we have become.
And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.
It seems to be working quite well, one problem is too many bored people coming from outside Tübingen. Obviously difficult to go it alone with such a scheme.
This is the only article in English I can find about it:
https://www.dw.com/en/is-tübingen-the-model-german-city-during-the-pandemic/a-56953286
it also has this quote:
"We can't deal with a crisis in Germany with our laws and regulations," Federle said. "We have no pragmatists in a crisis, and a project like this one in Tübingen wins people over. And, even if it doesn't come off, at least you can say you tried. That's always better than doing nothing."
They have also given the legislature the power to sideline the Secretary of State - who was the guy who stopped the fix last time around.
The legislation runs to 100 pages, inserted at the last moment into a two page bill, pushed through in a couple of days.
None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.
The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19
Given the highly deficient American Constitution it is far from clear that a new Voting Rights Act will work. It is all too likely that the SC would rule that this is an unwarranted interference in State laws and strike it down.
The real challenge for the Dems is going to come in the off year elections where the numbers that persevere in a Presidential year are reduced. I would not be too surprised to see them lose the House in 2022.
But the very first response to Republicans using legislatures they control to make it more difficult for Democrats to vote shouldn't be "Oh dear, we'd better give up on trying to appeal to democrat voters, let's just appeal to Republican voters". It should be "Let's use what we do control at the moment ie Congress, to do whatever we can to make it easier for everyone to vote, and that measures that target certain demographics aren't allowed".
Republicans have been very "creative" in finding so many ways to try and rig the vote in their favour, there must be a few things that Congress can do that aren't unconstitutional.
The wait until we can be sure is really very short.
Secondly, we must be willing to accept risk and that includes the risk of death. We are seeing in the EU what damage can be done by being excessively risk averse in their absurd panics about the AZ vaccine at the cost of hundreds, probably thousands of lives but absurd risk aversion takes other forms too.
Those who are most at risk in our society are already vaccinated, some of them twice. As these ratios change so does the level of interference and restriction that is tolerable. If deaths in the UK continue their current trend any slippage in the end of restrictions would be unacceptable. There are hints of this with the latest problems with supply. It should be resisted.
1. They're already up to a 36 share and don't yet have a candidate
2. North Wast Party selecting a former Labour MP is a stroke of genius - a safe harbour for unhappy ex-Labour voters to protest
3. There's a Teesside Tory cash bonanza and Pools is missing out. Imagine what will happen when they join the blue wave?
Correspondence shows pressure was put on the public spending watchdog Audit Scotland to change findings that were critical of the way bureaucrats and politicians responded to Covid-19.
Among its defences, the government said plans were in place to cope with the coronavirus because it had circulated a strategy that referred to only England.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a6de90d0-8dbc-11eb-a1a3-928d43a3bbc1?shareToken=9f8717aa00d80723f96be39638cfd69e
Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.
We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.
Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
The difference is of course that in the UK the allocation of seats is pretty independent if all too often delayed. The US claim to love their Constitution but it has major deficiencies in not giving that independent element or basic protection of the right to vote.
F1: four hours until the season begins. Well, just a little less.
Ladbrokes have a winner without Mercedes/Red Bull market. McLaren are favourites with Ferrari/Aston Martin both 4. If McLaren are in a sort of No Man's Land between midfield and top tier, and Ferrari are stuck in the midfield, that won't be great for them.
Major thing to watch for in first practice is whether the Mercedes rear is still snapping.
Also, I put a tiny sum on Leclerc to 'win' first practice at 76 (61, but with boost), each way, fifth the odds top 3. Sainz did that twice in the testing days. Small chance of it coming off.
I have bet on Tory gain.
I guess the key question here is how well-sampled/accurate that opinion poll is, and relative turnout.
What he is saying is the relaxation of the rules in December / Christmas as the Kent strain took over resulted in 20-30,000 additional deaths.
That's really only of relevance to countries where infections are rising quickly and where a major festival has resulted in the rules being relaxed for a few days.
Here vaccines are starting to create a break between infections and serious issues, in Germany that just isn't the case yet (as we see Councils looking at anything / everything to try and identify older people and get them vaccinated).
I think, then, that I'd regard the Reform/Green shares as being reservoirs of support available to be squeezed. Traditionally the Green vote has been easy to squeeze in a situation like this, so the poll looks better for Labour than I expected.
But the uncertainty intervals on an MRP for an individual seat will be very broad.
Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.
It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.
It's worth emphasising that the people most sure that Hartlepool will be won by the Tories (myself and Rochdale) are fairly local and are left leaning.
As we've both said Hartlepool is missing out on the money and jobs that Ben Houchen is getting for the region. And with Ben emphasising all his successes as he campaigns to remain mayor the lack of money Hartlepool is seeing is going to be emphasised. And the solution for that is obvious - vote Tory and join in.
If Labour struggle then it suggests either that they aren't believed on Brexit, or that the voters lost on Brexit have stayed lost for other culture war issues, or were never lost due to Brexit but for other reasons.
Good morning, everyone.
Interestingly the government has extended their own ability to meet remotely!
That is nearly 75% of the way to 80% of adults having had vaccine. Based on 52 million adults in our population.
We are getting close.
It's imo just not worth the extra risk of things taking off again ... which WOULD lead to extra measures, when we are only a short period of time from being able to do it properly.
I'm with @MaxPB on the EU stuff; currently it is all just performative flappery and internal politics.
UVDL is trying to find a fig leaf big enough to cover her backside, and that search has gone through the weird anti-AZ campaign, where the senior EU types esp. Stella Wotsit were exposed as liars within days, to the faked-up "vaccine export" narrative.
The thing for the UK is that these are just pig's bladders on sticks, which are irrelevant to reality. Who do you think the EU has gone through more potential "draft" export control regimes than @TSE has pairs of glitter-boots?
There is a game of Schrodinger's Pass the Parcel being played in the EU, where the parcel contains responsibility for perhaps 100k-200k unnecessarily dead European Citizens. The eventual blame will be laid outside, because the EC self-image is that they are God's Final Gift to the world.
They went through 600k total this morning, which is tragic, and afaics nearly everywhere in Europe is going to end up pretty much in nearly the same place.
Here there should be no or a minimal third wave here.
Don't panic.
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/stories-56524550?__twitter_impression=true
This biosecurity state must be stopped. Once introduced they will never be taken away. One will need an app to go about any meaningful daily business.
Tory MPs are up in arms about China yet there own party is proposing to copy the CCP's social media controlled state.
Where are the Liberals?
The amount of covid circulating in the UK is vanishingly small. Even with a massive amount of testing we're finding only about 0.00008% of cases per day. That's cases, not deaths. The amount of deaths in which covid is even mentioned as a contributory cause (which could mean anything at all) is currently around 0.000001%.
Every day we jab c. 400,000 to 500,000 people. The vaccines work. They actually do work. We are, as stated above, breaking the cycle.
Yet we remain paralysed by fear.
It's utterly pathetic.
He is completely lacking in the self confidence to outline a real left wing alternative and oppose the government. He has upped the polling a bit, but I think it is a very soft position that will crumble in a campaign. He is a different sort of failure to Corbyn, but a failure just the same.
And Good Morning one and all; at least England won the toss.
PS And Topley's got a wicket. Think I might claim him back for Essex.
I've come aboard the lockdown bus since vaccinations were our route back to normality (we were told). But in the last week we have powerful lobbying, first to exclude international travel thus resulting in the gut-punch of a government not allowing its citizens to leave and now we the have a watering down of the 21 June "no more legal restrictions" promise. When do they think the variant bogeyman will go away? Will it ever?
Such naivety from one who is supposedly to be worldly wise about politicians.
UK Gov position will be something like:
"We support our European Friends' efforts to get the vaccine rolled out as quickly as possible.
These questions are internal EU matters and we are now a third country. As we have done throughout, we will continue to offer support if requested.
The UK believes in free trade, and the principle that contracts should be honoured.
We have checked with our suppliers and they confirm that they will continue to be able to meet their supply contracts.
The VTF had a mandate to 1 - create a vaccine supply chain suitable for the UK, and 2 - to speed up vaccine rollout worldwide.
Vaccine factories exported by the UK via AZ licensing are now making 130m+ doses per *month*, which is 30% (?) of worldwide production, and we are proud of this achievement.
We have already committed 50% of surplus UK vaccines to COVAX, when we are in a position to do this. We will carefully consider what more we can do at the appropriate time."
Then they will keep on keeping on.
That's my job*.
*Except for bar charts demonstrating that the people who came last in an election actually won. There is alot of prior art there.
Most businesses will presumably decide they want to be open to all, but some especially packed businesses like clubs that have professional doormen and check ID already may choose to do otherwise.
So long as its the businesses choice and not the government's, then what's the problem?
As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.
And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.
The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
https://twitter.com/jamesfraney/status/1375350770992877569?s=21
Utterly inexcusable if it did happen and I've seen no government spokespeople say it will happen. I can't believe it will.
You seem to be reacting to what conspiracy theorists are saying will happen, not what anyone is actually saying will happen. Restrictions end 21/6 and to do otherwise will go down like a lead balloon.
I have. I will support measures of caution where I believe they are necessary, and I will also support more risky measures where I believe they are necessary.
"In Whitehall, people are thinking the unthinkable: one idea is citizens sending their temperature in every day using the NHS app."
"This is a new form of illiberal Conservatism, and it is strange to see it all take place under Boris Johnson."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/25/vaccine-passports-threaten-just-start-new-biosecurity-state/
It feels to me and Daughter that government has it in for hospitality and won't be content until every last venue has been shut down.
Am I supposed to produce a blood test or certificate when I venture into a crowded Tesco's or John Lewis or at the hairdresser or go on the tube? No? So why at a restaurant? I spend just as long at these places in the presence of others as in a pub. And the tube is one of the most crowded places on the planet.
It is illiberal nonsense on stilts.
You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
Cases are interesting
The local MoE could be very substantial.
Time to republish this - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/21/rendering-unto-caesar/.
The well-connected Fraser Nelson says these discussions are going on at the highest levels. Johnson himself is coming around to the view that the public wants a biosecure state with apps and restrictions going on and on. Ministers are looking at proposals to use apps to test people's temperature every day he writes.
And with scientists whispering 'new variant' every time anyone suggests dialling down some restriction or other, I am beginning to seriously wonder whether Julia HB isn't right: we will never get out of this.
https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1375352602184011777?s=20
Last year, a couple of healthy young friends of mine (separately) decided not to leave their homes for three months. Utterly irrational terror, and almost certainly did far more damage through stress and lack of exercise than catching a virus would have at that age.
You might not like it, but I think that's what's going on.
The restrictions have never been that tight
Much as Labour won the Peterborough by election because the BXP took more Tory than Labour votes
This smacks me as someone in the Cabinet listening uncritically to some civil service advice on what would be most bureaucratically convenient, and not thinking about the politics - which is their job.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bernard-hogan-howe-lands-sensitive-security-role-at-g7-6b367ckcn
Hadn't realised that Hogan-Howe had so publicly been licking Johnson's arse.
Christ - is there anyone of any integrity left in public life?
Reading the polls last year, of all nations surveyed, Brits were the most terrified of the virus. So the government hasn't needed to be as restrictive as some European countries when it comes to lockdown to crush domestic transmission, but at the price of badly damaging many people's mental health. And now the vulnerable are vaccinated, this is completely unjustified, if it ever was.
"Covid levels are now so low in Britain that the Prime Minister could have proclaimed the second wave over yesterday. Instead, he asked for his Government’s emergency powers to be extended for another six months. Why, if there is no longer an emergency? Sir Keir Starmer didn’t ask."
"at the heart of this is a question of what kind of country we are – and whether liberal Britain became a casualty of the pandemic."
Are people at last going to wake up? The threat to liberal democracy is far more serious than the threat of the virus itself. In my view this was always the case.
I think the erosion of the rights of the individual is one of the biggest issues of our times.
Plenty of other articles suggesting that 2 metre social distancing will be back (note currently it's 1.5 metres) unless you do this.
We are getting the same kite-flying as before which was remarkably similar to what then was enacted. And some of it is coming from the PM. Of course maybe he doesn't know what is happening in his own government. That could be a possibility I suppose.
For the record, I am Category 2 (cancer treatment), and am officially shielding until the end of March.
I have been continuing to risk assess each activity and doing what I think necessary throughout based on prevailing risk throughout the pandemic, including shopping, walking for exercise and eating out where appropriate. Really, life has mainly continued with some precautions.
I will not be downloading any App, just as I did not download the T&T app.
If they try to leverage this to push through a required App, I will happily join you in Parliament Square.