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After their party’s flops at WH2020 and the Senate run-offs Georgia’s Republicans act to make it mor

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 26 in General
imageAfter their party’s flops at WH2020 and the Senate run-offs Georgia’s Republicans act to make it more difficult to vote – politicalbetting.com

The Washington Post reports:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,066
    First!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,125
    Election Rigging has been around for centuries. It's a very big reason to defend a free press. The subject could, and maybe does, fill scads of books and theses.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,034

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    It would make me more likely to vote for them as well Casino

    But we are not common beasts... the FDP trades at +/-5% in Germany which is about right for a sensible liberal party in the modern world
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,944
    On the subject of coronavirus "passports", it looks like the Tübingen model, where a negative test result (on a piece of paper) allows entry to things like theaters and cinemas, is coming to Cologne, and other places, after Easter.

    It seems to be working quite well, one problem is too many bored people coming from outside Tübingen. Obviously difficult to go it alone with such a scheme.

    This is the only article in English I can find about it:
    https://www.dw.com/en/is-tübingen-the-model-german-city-during-the-pandemic/a-56953286

    it also has this quote:
    "We can't deal with a crisis in Germany with our laws and regulations," Federle said. "We have no pragmatists in a crisis, and a project like this one in Tübingen wins people over. And, even if it doesn't come off, at least you can say you tried. That's always better than doing nothing."
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    But it's the long slippery slope to a biosecurity state ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    state officials can take over local elections boards

    They have also given the legislature the power to sideline the Secretary of State - who was the guy who stopped the fix last time around.

    The legislation runs to 100 pages, inserted at the last moment into a two page bill, pushed through in a couple of days.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533
    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.

    But, if the Democrats are really so very unpopular the Republicans wouldn't need to pass all these measures.

    The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
    The Supreme Court would likely find it unconstitutional.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759
    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    Er ... 14th Floor.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.

    But, if the Democrats are really so very unpopular the Republicans wouldn't need to pass all these measures.

    The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
    The Democrats won the Presidency because they were up against a dangerous idiot. But they lost seats in the House, they missed out in their opportunity to take control of the Senate and, as I said, they didn't win any State legislatures. They are popular on the coastal areas but but in large parts of America they are not.

    Given the highly deficient American Constitution it is far from clear that a new Voting Rights Act will work. It is all too likely that the SC would rule that this is an unwarranted interference in State laws and strike it down.

    The real challenge for the Dems is going to come in the off year elections where the numbers that persevere in a Presidential year are reduced. I would not be too surprised to see them lose the House in 2022.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,944
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.

    But, if the Democrats are really so very unpopular the Republicans wouldn't need to pass all these measures.

    The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
    The Supreme Court would likely find it unconstitutional.
    Well, that would surely depend on exactly what is in the legislation passed.

    But the very first response to Republicans using legislatures they control to make it more difficult for Democrats to vote shouldn't be "Oh dear, we'd better give up on trying to appeal to democrat voters, let's just appeal to Republican voters". It should be "Let's use what we do control at the moment ie Congress, to do whatever we can to make it easier for everyone to vote, and that measures that target certain demographics aren't allowed".

    Republicans have been very "creative" in finding so many ways to try and rig the vote in their favour, there must be a few things that Congress can do that aren't unconstitutional.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    Took me a minute to work out who RUK were. The structural instability of this element of our demos must surely have been almost as big a drawback as the marmite Farage.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    kamski said:

    On the subject of coronavirus "passports", it looks like the Tübingen model, where a negative test result (on a piece of paper) allows entry to things like theaters and cinemas, is coming to Cologne, and other places, after Easter.

    It seems to be working quite well, one problem is too many bored people coming from outside Tübingen. Obviously difficult to go it alone with such a scheme.

    This is the only article in English I can find about it:
    https://www.dw.com/en/is-tübingen-the-model-german-city-during-the-pandemic/a-56953286

    it also has this quote:
    "We can't deal with a crisis in Germany with our laws and regulations," Federle said. "We have no pragmatists in a crisis, and a project like this one in Tübingen wins people over. And, even if it doesn't come off, at least you can say you tried. That's always better than doing nothing."

    Tubingen is a lovely place; I am supposed to be passing through again in May, although the odds on the trip happening look long.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,944
    edited March 26
    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.

    But, if the Democrats are really so very unpopular the Republicans wouldn't need to pass all these measures.

    The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
    The Democrats won the Presidency because they were up against a dangerous idiot. But they lost seats in the House, they missed out in their opportunity to take control of the Senate and, as I said, they didn't win any State legislatures. They are popular on the coastal areas but but in large parts of America they are not.

    Given the highly deficient American Constitution it is far from clear that a new Voting Rights Act will work. It is all too likely that the SC would rule that this is an unwarranted interference in State laws and strike it down.

    The real challenge for the Dems is going to come in the off year elections where the numbers that persevere in a Presidential year are reduced. I would not be too surprised to see them lose the House in 2022.
    That may be mostly true, but Biden won by 4.4% over Trump, in the House Democrats won nationally by 3.1%. Is it really a big difference? If you compare to 2018, the Republicans seem to have done a lot better in the national House elections because Trump was on the ticket. There's a few different ways of looking at at, but I'm not sure that if Republicans find candidates who aren't "dangerous idiots" that they do any better.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    Pretty much as many on here predicted.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508
    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    As I said, the Tories will take the seat:
    1. They're already up to a 36 share and don't yet have a candidate
    2. North Wast Party selecting a former Labour MP is a stroke of genius - a safe harbour for unhappy ex-Labour voters to protest
    3. There's a Teesside Tory cash bonanza and Pools is missing out. Imagine what will happen when they join the blue wave?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    Officials working for the Scottish government repeatedly tried to alter a report to suggest the SNP administration had prepared better for the pandemic.

    Correspondence shows pressure was put on the public spending watchdog Audit Scotland to change findings that were critical of the way bureaucrats and politicians responded to Covid-19.

    Among its defences, the government said plans were in place to cope with the coronavirus because it had circulated a strategy that referred to only England.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a6de90d0-8dbc-11eb-a1a3-928d43a3bbc1?shareToken=9f8717aa00d80723f96be39638cfd69e
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    MattW said:

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

    This is exactly the kind of misguided terror which is paralysing people into submission.

    Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.

    We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.

    Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.

    But, if the Democrats are really so very unpopular the Republicans wouldn't need to pass all these measures.

    The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
    The Democrats won the Presidency because they were up against a dangerous idiot. But they lost seats in the House, they missed out in their opportunity to take control of the Senate and, as I said, they didn't win any State legislatures. They are popular on the coastal areas but but in large parts of America they are not.

    Given the highly deficient American Constitution it is far from clear that a new Voting Rights Act will work. It is all too likely that the SC would rule that this is an unwarranted interference in State laws and strike it down.

    The real challenge for the Dems is going to come in the off year elections where the numbers that persevere in a Presidential year are reduced. I would not be too surprised to see them lose the House in 2022.
    That may be mostly true, but Biden won by 4.4% over Trump, in the House Democrats won nationally by 3.1%. Is it really a big difference? If you compare to 2018, the Republicans seem to have done a lot better in the national House elections because Trump was on the ticket. There's a few different ways of looking at at, but I'm not sure that if Republicans find candidates who aren't "dangerous idiots" that they do any better.
    Its a similar problem to that faced by Labour here. The Democrats, like Labour, are dominant in the Cities and in University towns but really struggle with much of the rest of the country. State legislature control is making it easier and easier for the Republicans to exacerbate these problems by using districting to decrease the efficiency of the Democratic vote and increase the efficiency of theirs. That lead in the overall vote doesn't do the Democrats much good if they are piling up votes in California in the same way that Labour does in London.

    The difference is of course that in the UK the allocation of seats is pretty independent if all too often delayed. The US claim to love their Constitution but it has major deficiencies in not giving that independent element or basic protection of the right to vote.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: four hours until the season begins. Well, just a little less.

    Ladbrokes have a winner without Mercedes/Red Bull market. McLaren are favourites with Ferrari/Aston Martin both 4. If McLaren are in a sort of No Man's Land between midfield and top tier, and Ferrari are stuck in the midfield, that won't be great for them.

    Major thing to watch for in first practice is whether the Mercedes rear is still snapping.

    Also, I put a tiny sum on Leclerc to 'win' first practice at 76 (61, but with boost), each way, fifth the odds top 3. Sainz did that twice in the testing days. Small chance of it coming off.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759

    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    As I said, the Tories will take the seat:
    1. They're already up to a 36 share and don't yet have a candidate
    2. North Wast Party selecting a former Labour MP is a stroke of genius - a safe harbour for unhappy ex-Labour voters to protest
    3. There's a Teesside Tory cash bonanza and Pools is missing out. Imagine what will happen when they join the blue wave?
    Personally, I cannot see RUK doing that well, and I think NIP will feature too.

    I have bet on Tory gain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,996
    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    So, close as expected then.

    I guess the key question here is how well-sampled/accurate that opinion poll is, and relative turnout.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    edited March 26
    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52% & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    edited March 26

    MattW said:

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

    This is exactly the kind of misguided terror which is paralysing people into submission.

    Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.

    We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.

    Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
    MattW is saying nothing about the UK at the moment.

    What he is saying is the relaxation of the rules in December / Christmas as the Kent strain took over resulted in 20-30,000 additional deaths.

    That's really only of relevance to countries where infections are rising quickly and where a major festival has resulted in the rules being relaxed for a few days.

    Here vaccines are starting to create a break between infections and serious issues, in Germany that just isn't the case yet (as we see Councils looking at anything / everything to try and identify older people and get them vaccinated).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759

    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    So, close as expected then.

    I guess the key question here is how well-sampled/accurate that opinion poll is, and relative turnout.
    It is an MRP not a regular poll. We get more details soon.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,177

    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    So, close as expected then.

    I guess the key question here is how well-sampled/accurate that opinion poll is, and relative turnout.
    Says that it's an MRP - which sort of implies that they've possibly sampled the same demographics elsewhere and used that to calculate a result in the seat.

    I think, then, that I'd regard the Reform/Green shares as being reservoirs of support available to be squeezed. Traditionally the Green vote has been easy to squeeze in a situation like this, so the poll looks better for Labour than I expected.

    But the uncertainty intervals on an MRP for an individual seat will be very broad.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Modest recovery in retail sales in February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56534985
    Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.

    It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759
    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.

    But, if the Democrats are really so very unpopular the Republicans wouldn't need to pass all these measures.

    The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
    The Democrats won the Presidency because they were up against a dangerous idiot. But they lost seats in the House, they missed out in their opportunity to take control of the Senate and, as I said, they didn't win any State legislatures. They are popular on the coastal areas but but in large parts of America they are not.

    Given the highly deficient American Constitution it is far from clear that a new Voting Rights Act will work. It is all too likely that the SC would rule that this is an unwarranted interference in State laws and strike it down.

    The real challenge for the Dems is going to come in the off year elections where the numbers that persevere in a Presidential year are reduced. I would not be too surprised to see them lose the House in 2022.
    That may be mostly true, but Biden won by 4.4% over Trump, in the House Democrats won nationally by 3.1%. Is it really a big difference? If you compare to 2018, the Republicans seem to have done a lot better in the national House elections because Trump was on the ticket. There's a few different ways of looking at at, but I'm not sure that if Republicans find candidates who aren't "dangerous idiots" that they do any better.
    Its a similar problem to that faced by Labour here. The Democrats, like Labour, are dominant in the Cities and in University towns but really struggle with much of the rest of the country. State legislature control is making it easier and easier for the Republicans to exacerbate these problems by using districting to decrease the efficiency of the Democratic vote and increase the efficiency of theirs. That lead in the overall vote doesn't do the Democrats much good if they are piling up votes in California in the same way that Labour does in London.

    The difference is of course that in the UK the allocation of seats is pretty independent if all too often delayed. The US claim to love their Constitution but it has major deficiencies in not giving that independent element or basic protection of the right to vote.
    There is a surprisingly strong Labour vote in a lot of Shire England. Roughly 30% in Harborough and Huntingdon in 2017 for example. @NickPalmer is not that unusual as a Labour Councillor in a true blue area. Not likely to win on FPTP for Westminster though. The rural red vote is as unrepresented as the urban blue vote by our political system.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52%
    & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    If the Labour candidate wasn't so obviously a remainer I would agree with the argument but that isn't the case.

    It's worth emphasising that the people most sure that Hartlepool will be won by the Tories (myself and Rochdale) are fairly local and are left leaning.

    As we've both said Hartlepool is missing out on the money and jobs that Ben Houchen is getting for the region. And with Ben emphasising all his successes as he campaigns to remain mayor the lack of money Hartlepool is seeing is going to be emphasised. And the solution for that is obvious - vote Tory and join in.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    eek said:

    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52%
    & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    If the Labour candidate wasn't so obviously a remainer I would agree with the argument but that isn't the case.

    It's worth emphasising that the people most sure that Hartlepool will be won by the Tories (myself and Rochdale) are fairly local and are left leaning.

    As we've both said Hartlepool is missing out on the money and jobs that Ben Houchen is getting for the region. And with Ben emphasising all his successes as he campaigns to remain mayor the lack of money Hartlepool is seeing is going to be emphasised. And the solution for that is obvious - vote Tory and join in.
    Fair do’s I couldn’t work out how it could be close to 50/50 but local knowledge, of which I have none, seems to be the reason
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,177
    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52% & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    This is why the result will be interesting.

    If Labour struggle then it suggests either that they aren't believed on Brexit, or that the voters lost on Brexit have stayed lost for other culture war issues, or were never lost due to Brexit but for other reasons.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,790
    DavidL said:

    Modest recovery in retail sales in February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56534985
    Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.

    It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.

    I'm on both sides of the fence. A certain amount of caution to protect costly gains, but not so much caution that we lose advantages.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52% & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    This is why the result will be interesting.

    If Labour struggle then it suggests either that they aren't believed on Brexit, or that the voters lost on Brexit have stayed lost for other culture war issues, or were never lost due to Brexit but for other reasons.
    My take on Mays elections across the UK is that whilst polls show a positive lead for the conservatives and they are doing well in Wales in reality the results on the night are likely to be very mixed
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,024
    Not sure if I have mentioned but my wife is a town clerk. There is uproar in the town clerk network as the government has not extended the ability of town and parish councils to hold online meetings beyond 7th May. The letter which has gone out to them explaining this is very patronising as they now have legal duties to hold meetings however I would imagine that most have nowhere to do this. The town hall chamber at my wife's council can hold 6 people in a Covid secure manner. This would mean only 5 councillors in attendance therefore inquorate and no public representations as these will be impossible to control. Until all restrictions for inside meetings are removed the council will not be able to function. The government solution is to for clerk to ask for power to make decisions out if meeting, and for individual councillors to have single level approval.

    Interestingly the government has extended their own ability to meet remotely!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,024
    edited March 26
    .....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    edited March 26

    But it's the long slippery slope to a biosecurity state ...

    My preference is rollout PDDDQ, then no need for any internal 'passports' at all. That is where I think we are heading. Current stats are that 30 million people have received one dose of vaccine.

    That is nearly 75% of the way to 80% of adults having had vaccine. Based on 52 million adults in our population.

    We are getting close.

    It's imo just not worth the extra risk of things taking off again ... which WOULD lead to extra measures, when we are only a short period of time from being able to do it properly.

    I'm with @MaxPB on the EU stuff; currently it is all just performative flappery and internal politics.

    UVDL is trying to find a fig leaf big enough to cover her backside, and that search has gone through the weird anti-AZ campaign, where the senior EU types esp. Stella Wotsit were exposed as liars within days, to the faked-up "vaccine export" narrative.

    The thing for the UK is that these are just pig's bladders on sticks, which are irrelevant to reality. Who do you think the EU has gone through more potential "draft" export control regimes than @TSE has pairs of glitter-boots?

    There is a game of Schrodinger's Pass the Parcel being played in the EU, where the parcel contains responsibility for perhaps 100k-200k unnecessarily dead European Citizens. The eventual blame will be laid outside, because the EC self-image is that they are God's Final Gift to the world.

    They went through 600k total this morning, which is tragic, and afaics nearly everywhere in Europe is going to end up pretty much in nearly the same place.

    Here there should be no or a minimal third wave here.

    Don't panic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    The Democrats didn't manage to regain a single State legislature in 2020 leaving the Republicans the dominant force in State level politics. This failure, in a year where they achieved a record number of people voting for President, will carry a cost in districting (or gerrymandering) and in the sort of nonsense that we see referred to in the header. The decisions of SCOTUS have also gutted Federal legislation which sought to encourage voting and made challenges to State laws more difficult. As the Court now has a significant built in Republican majority this trend is unlikely to stop any time soon.

    None of this makes what the Republicans are doing right of course but the Democrats really need to take a hard look at themselves and work out why they are so unpopular in large parts of the US. Its not an exercise that the likes of AOC and her city based group of ultra liberals will find particularly pleasant.

    But, if the Democrats are really so very unpopular the Republicans wouldn't need to pass all these measures.

    The Democrats probably need to pass a new Voting Rights Act to counter some of what Republicans are doing, while they have majorities in Congress.
    The Democrats won the Presidency because they were up against a dangerous idiot. But they lost seats in the House, they missed out in their opportunity to take control of the Senate and, as I said, they didn't win any State legislatures. They are popular on the coastal areas but but in large parts of America they are not.

    Given the highly deficient American Constitution it is far from clear that a new Voting Rights Act will work. It is all too likely that the SC would rule that this is an unwarranted interference in State laws and strike it down.

    The real challenge for the Dems is going to come in the off year elections where the numbers that persevere in a Presidential year are reduced. I would not be too surprised to see them lose the House in 2022.
    That may be mostly true, but Biden won by 4.4% over Trump, in the House Democrats won nationally by 3.1%. Is it really a big difference? If you compare to 2018, the Republicans seem to have done a lot better in the national House elections because Trump was on the ticket. There's a few different ways of looking at at, but I'm not sure that if Republicans find candidates who aren't "dangerous idiots" that they do any better.
    Its a similar problem to that faced by Labour here. The Democrats, like Labour, are dominant in the Cities and in University towns but really struggle with much of the rest of the country. State legislature control is making it easier and easier for the Republicans to exacerbate these problems by using districting to decrease the efficiency of the Democratic vote and increase the efficiency of theirs. That lead in the overall vote doesn't do the Democrats much good if they are piling up votes in California in the same way that Labour does in London.

    The difference is of course that in the UK the allocation of seats is pretty independent if all too often delayed. The US claim to love their Constitution but it has major deficiencies in not giving that independent element or basic protection of the right to vote.
    There is a surprisingly strong Labour vote in a lot of Shire England. Roughly 30% in Harborough and Huntingdon in 2017 for example. @NickPalmer is not that unusual as a Labour Councillor in a true blue area. Not likely to win on FPTP for Westminster though. The rural red vote is as unrepresented as the urban blue vote by our political system.
    Even at the last election, which was a total disaster for Scottish Labour, they got over 500k votes in Scotland. And 1 seat. Voting systems can be cruel to those who have reasonable support but can't break through.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    Edinburgh professor helping “Russian” agent:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/stories-56524550?__twitter_impression=true
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,024
    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Modest recovery in retail sales in February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56534985
    Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.

    It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.

    I'm on both sides of the fence. A certain amount of caution to protect costly gains, but not so much caution that we lose advantages.

    Good morning, everyone.
    You can't be in both sides of the fence. You are on the fence.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    On the subject of coronavirus "passports", it looks like the Tübingen model, where a negative test result (on a piece of paper) allows entry to things like theaters and cinemas, is coming to Cologne, and other places, after Easter.

    It seems to be working quite well, one problem is too many bored people coming from outside Tübingen. Obviously difficult to go it alone with such a scheme.

    This is the only article in English I can find about it:
    https://www.dw.com/en/is-tübingen-the-model-german-city-during-the-pandemic/a-56953286

    it also has this quote:
    "We can't deal with a crisis in Germany with our laws and regulations," Federle said. "We have no pragmatists in a crisis, and a project like this one in Tübingen wins people over. And, even if it doesn't come off, at least you can say you tried. That's always better than doing nothing."

    Tubingen is a lovely place; I am supposed to be passing through again in May, although the odds on the trip happening look long.
    As far as I can see there is nothing on BBC News front page about the massive looming threat to individual freedom that is the government's vaccine/covid app passport plans.

    This biosecurity state must be stopped. Once introduced they will never be taken away. One will need an app to go about any meaningful daily business.

    Tory MPs are up in arms about China yet there own party is proposing to copy the CCP's social media controlled state.

    Where are the Liberals?
  • LindonLightLindonLight Posts: 96
    Further to my comments above, excess deaths in the UK are now below the mean.

    The amount of covid circulating in the UK is vanishingly small. Even with a massive amount of testing we're finding only about 0.00008% of cases per day. That's cases, not deaths. The amount of deaths in which covid is even mentioned as a contributory cause (which could mean anything at all) is currently around 0.000001%.

    Every day we jab c. 400,000 to 500,000 people. The vaccines work. They actually do work. We are, as stated above, breaking the cycle.

    Yet we remain paralysed by fear.

    It's utterly pathetic.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Modest recovery in retail sales in February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56534985
    Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.

    It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.

    I'm on both sides of the fence. A certain amount of caution to protect costly gains, but not so much caution that we lose advantages.

    Good morning, everyone.
    You can't be in both sides of the fence. You are on the fence.
    Nitpick mode: If you're on the fence and dangle your legs one on each side, then you're on both sides aren't you?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    Deleted
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Modest recovery in retail sales in February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56534985
    Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.

    It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.

    I'm on both sides of the fence. A certain amount of caution to protect costly gains, but not so much caution that we lose advantages.

    Good morning, everyone.
    You can't be in both sides of the fence. You are on the fence.
    Nitpick mode: If you're on the fence and dangle your legs one on each side, then you're on both sides aren't you?
    Yes but your eyes are watering.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732
    Stocky said:

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Modest recovery in retail sales in February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56534985
    Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.

    It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.

    I'm on both sides of the fence. A certain amount of caution to protect costly gains, but not so much caution that we lose advantages.

    Good morning, everyone.
    You can't be in both sides of the fence. You are on the fence.
    Nitpick mode: If you're on the fence and dangle your legs one on each side, then you're on both sides aren't you?
    Yes but your eyes are watering.
    Yes but it qualifies you today to be leader of the Labour Party. So long as you have a Y chromosome.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759

    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52% & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    This is why the result will be interesting.

    If Labour struggle then it suggests either that they aren't believed on Brexit, or that the voters lost on Brexit have stayed lost for other culture war issues, or were never lost due to Brexit but for other reasons.
    I don't think Starmer is credible with his pro-Brexit, abstentionist and anti-immigrant stance. It loses the people who think differently on these issues, and fails to gain those who want the real thing.

    He is completely lacking in the self confidence to outline a real left wing alternative and oppose the government. He has upped the polling a bit, but I think it is a very soft position that will crumble in a campaign. He is a different sort of failure to Corbyn, but a failure just the same.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    edited March 26

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    On the subject of coronavirus "passports", it looks like the Tübingen model, where a negative test result (on a piece of paper) allows entry to things like theaters and cinemas, is coming to Cologne, and other places, after Easter.

    It seems to be working quite well, one problem is too many bored people coming from outside Tübingen. Obviously difficult to go it alone with such a scheme.

    This is the only article in English I can find about it:
    https://www.dw.com/en/is-tübingen-the-model-german-city-during-the-pandemic/a-56953286

    it also has this quote:
    "We can't deal with a crisis in Germany with our laws and regulations," Federle said. "We have no pragmatists in a crisis, and a project like this one in Tübingen wins people over. And, even if it doesn't come off, at least you can say you tried. That's always better than doing nothing."

    Tubingen is a lovely place; I am supposed to be passing through again in May, although the odds on the trip happening look long.
    As far as I can see there is nothing on BBC News front page about the massive looming threat to individual freedom that is the government's vaccine/covid app passport plans.

    This biosecurity state must be stopped. Once introduced they will never be taken away. One will need an app to go about any meaningful daily business.

    Tory MPs are up in arms about China yet there own party is proposing to copy the CCP's social media controlled state.

    Where are the Liberals?
    AIUI the LibDems (who are different to the Liberal Party) voted against.

    And Good Morning one and all; at least England won the toss.

    PS And Topley's got a wicket. Think I might claim him back for Essex.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220
    eek said:

    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52%
    & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    If the Labour candidate wasn't so obviously a remainer I would agree with the argument but that isn't the case.

    It's worth emphasising that the people most sure that Hartlepool will be won by the Tories (myself and Rochdale) are fairly local and are left leaning.

    As we've both said Hartlepool is missing out on the money and jobs that Ben Houchen is getting for the region. And with Ben emphasising all his successes as he campaigns to remain mayor the lack of money Hartlepool is seeing is going to be emphasised. And the solution for that is obvious - vote Tory and join in.
    the natives are easily fooled with some baubles
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,058
    Macron still wants a a trade war it seems

  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471
    edited March 26

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    I agree and I am as frustrated as you are.

    I've come aboard the lockdown bus since vaccinations were our route back to normality (we were told). But in the last week we have powerful lobbying, first to exclude international travel thus resulting in the gut-punch of a government not allowing its citizens to leave and now we the have a watering down of the 21 June "no more legal restrictions" promise. When do they think the variant bogeyman will go away? Will it ever?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1375359237405224964

    Such naivety from one who is supposedly to be worldly wise about politicians.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52%
    & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    If the Labour candidate wasn't so obviously a remainer I would agree with the argument but that isn't the case.

    It's worth emphasising that the people most sure that Hartlepool will be won by the Tories (myself and Rochdale) are fairly local and are left leaning.

    As we've both said Hartlepool is missing out on the money and jobs that Ben Houchen is getting for the region. And with Ben emphasising all his successes as he campaigns to remain mayor the lack of money Hartlepool is seeing is going to be emphasised. And the solution for that is obvious - vote Tory and join in.
    the natives are easily fooled with some baubles
    the natives feel they are missing out. Especially as Redcar and Darlington wave 1000s of new jobs at them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    edited March 26
    BTW @LindonLight I agree that any slippage will be unacceptable, but I don't think it will slip.

    UK Gov position will be something like:

    "We support our European Friends' efforts to get the vaccine rolled out as quickly as possible.

    These questions are internal EU matters and we are now a third country. As we have done throughout, we will continue to offer support if requested.

    The UK believes in free trade, and the principle that contracts should be honoured.

    We have checked with our suppliers and they confirm that they will continue to be able to meet their supply contracts.

    The VTF had a mandate to 1 - create a vaccine supply chain suitable for the UK, and 2 - to speed up vaccine rollout worldwide.

    Vaccine factories exported by the UK via AZ licensing are now making 130m+ doses per *month*, which is 30% (?) of worldwide production, and we are proud of this achievement.

    We have already committed 50% of surplus UK vaccines to COVAX, when we are in a position to do this. We will carefully consider what more we can do at the appropriate time."


    Then they will keep on keeping on.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    Further to my comments above, excess deaths in the UK are now below the mean.

    The amount of covid circulating in the UK is vanishingly small. Even with a massive amount of testing we're finding only about 0.00008% of cases per day. That's cases, not deaths. The amount of deaths in which covid is even mentioned as a contributory cause (which could mean anything at all) is currently around 0.000001%.

    Every day we jab c. 400,000 to 500,000 people. The vaccines work. They actually do work. We are, as stated above, breaking the cycle.

    Yet we remain paralysed by fear.

    It's utterly pathetic.

    Please do not create meaningless, made up statistics to publish on PB.

    That's my job*.

    image

    *Except for bar charts demonstrating that the people who came last in an election actually won. There is alot of prior art there.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1375359237405224964

    Such naivety from one who is supposedly to be worldly wise about politicians.

    What's naive about that?

    Most businesses will presumably decide they want to be open to all, but some especially packed businesses like clubs that have professional doormen and check ID already may choose to do otherwise.

    So long as its the businesses choice and not the government's, then what's the problem?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    So the next few days are going to be really key to seeing if the schools reopening has spread the virus into older or vulnerable populations as it would bow start to feed into the hospitalisation rate. If it doesn't then I suspect all of our reopening steps will be fine. I'm not sure it will either because there's been no evidence of an uptick in infections among the over 60s.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    COVID is out of control in Papua New Guinea - Australia has asked the EU for 1 million AZN vaccines it has bought & paid for to be sent there:

    https://twitter.com/jamesfraney/status/1375350770992877569?s=21
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    You say that government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June - don't you think these enduring measures will be framed as guidelines rather than a matter of law though? This is what the road map implies.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,594

    But it's the long slippery slope to a biosecurity state ...

    Nothing long about it. Seems very short to me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,732
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    Where are you getting this from that this is what is going to happen?

    Utterly inexcusable if it did happen and I've seen no government spokespeople say it will happen. I can't believe it will.

    You seem to be reacting to what conspiracy theorists are saying will happen, not what anyone is actually saying will happen. Restrictions end 21/6 and to do otherwise will go down like a lead balloon.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471
    edited March 26
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    The root of all this is, of course, populism. The government is not following liberalism or common sense, it is waiting for approval from the illiberal risk-aversers and the frit bovine hordes.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,790

    AnneJGP said:

    DavidL said:

    Modest recovery in retail sales in February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56534985
    Still down YoY but the comparisons will be easier from here on as we are comparing lockdown with lockdown for the first time.

    It really is important that our success in delivering vaccines is utilised in opening up our economy rapidly to allow a more significant recovery. To lose that opportunity by excessive caution would be to throw away the benefits of our efforts on the vaccine.

    I'm on both sides of the fence. A certain amount of caution to protect costly gains, but not so much caution that we lose advantages.

    Good morning, everyone.
    You can't be in both sides of the fence. You are on the fence.
    On the fence means you haven't made up your mind.

    I have. I will support measures of caution where I believe they are necessary, and I will also support more risky measures where I believe they are necessary.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    Where are you getting this from that this is what is going to happen?

    Utterly inexcusable if it did happen and I've seen no government spokespeople say it will happen. I can't believe it will.

    You seem to be reacting to what conspiracy theorists are saying will happen, not what anyone is actually saying will happen. Restrictions end 21/6 and to do otherwise will go down like a lead balloon.
    Hope you are right PT.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Blistering piece from Fraser Nelson on the emerging threat of a state that deprives freedom indefinitely thanks to precautionary principle over covid.

    "In Whitehall, people are thinking the unthinkable: one idea is citizens sending their temperature in every day using the NHS app."

    "This is a new form of illiberal Conservatism, and it is strange to see it all take place under Boris Johnson."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/25/vaccine-passports-threaten-just-start-new-biosecurity-state/


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.

    You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    isam said:

    Looking at the last three elections in Hartlepool, the first time I have thought about it, Labour struggled (relatively) when they opposed Brexit in 2015 & 19 (35% & 38%, winning by 7.7 & 8.8%) but did very well when they were pretending to accept it in 2017 (52%
    & 18.3). So why wouldn’t they do well in this by Election, now that they are pretending to be ok with it again?

    If the Labour candidate wasn't so obviously a remainer I would agree with the argument but that isn't the case.

    It's worth emphasising that the people most sure that Hartlepool will be won by the Tories (myself and Rochdale) are fairly local and are left leaning.

    As we've both said Hartlepool is missing out on the money and jobs that Ben Houchen is getting for the region. And with Ben emphasising all his successes as he campaigns to remain mayor the lack of money Hartlepool is seeing is going to be emphasised. And the solution for that is obvious - vote Tory and join in.
    the natives are easily fooled with some baubles
    the natives feel they are missing out. Especially as Redcar and Darlington wave 1000s of new jobs at them.
    A lot depends on how long the Magic Money Tree lasts in chucking money at Tory constituencies. Sooner or later it has to be clawed back, and it will be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    MaxPB said:

    So the next few days are going to be really key to seeing if the schools reopening has spread the virus into older or vulnerable populations as it would bow start to feed into the hospitalisation rate. If it doesn't then I suspect all of our reopening steps will be fine. I'm not sure it will either because there's been no evidence of an uptick in infections among the over 60s.

    Admissions are still going down, though there may be a slight hint of a slowing...

    image

    Cases are interesting

    image
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,996

    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    So, close as expected then.

    I guess the key question here is how well-sampled/accurate that opinion poll is, and relative turnout.
    Says that it's an MRP - which sort of implies that they've possibly sampled the same demographics elsewhere and used that to calculate a result in the seat.

    I think, then, that I'd regard the Reform/Green shares as being reservoirs of support available to be squeezed. Traditionally the Green vote has been easy to squeeze in a situation like this, so the poll looks better for Labour than I expected.

    But the uncertainty intervals on an MRP for an individual seat will be very broad.
    Interesting. Yes, I rate MRP but they work best at generals and not abstracted to highly local environments.

    The local MoE could be very substantial.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,594
    In other news I see that in Batley the "offence" bullies are back trying to inflict a blasphemy law on us via the back door.

    Time to republish this - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/21/rendering-unto-caesar/.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    Where are you getting this from that this is what is going to happen?

    Utterly inexcusable if it did happen and I've seen no government spokespeople say it will happen. I can't believe it will.

    You seem to be reacting to what conspiracy theorists are saying will happen, not what anyone is actually saying will happen. Restrictions end 21/6 and to do otherwise will go down like a lead balloon.
    Hope you are right PT.
    "You seem to be reacting to what conspiracy theorists are saying will happen,"

    The well-connected Fraser Nelson says these discussions are going on at the highest levels. Johnson himself is coming around to the view that the public wants a biosecure state with apps and restrictions going on and on. Ministers are looking at proposals to use apps to test people's temperature every day he writes.

    And with scientists whispering 'new variant' every time anyone suggests dialling down some restriction or other, I am beginning to seriously wonder whether Julia HB isn't right: we will never get out of this.

  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,997

    MattW said:

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

    This is exactly the kind of misguided terror which is paralysing people into submission.

    Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.

    We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.

    Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
    I agree, also mental health has suffered from the government's terror campaign. I saw a study saying that a significantly higher proportion of the country were reporting anxiety and stress since it started, ironically more women than men, even though they are much less likely to be affected seriously by the virus.

    Last year, a couple of healthy young friends of mine (separately) decided not to leave their homes for three months. Utterly irrational terror, and almost certainly did far more damage through stress and lack of exercise than catching a virus would have at that age.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    I think the Gov't has looked at the success of South Korea in this and is thinking "We'll have some of that".
    You might not like it, but I think that's what's going on.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195

    MaxPB said:

    So the next few days are going to be really key to seeing if the schools reopening has spread the virus into older or vulnerable populations as it would bow start to feed into the hospitalisation rate. If it doesn't then I suspect all of our reopening steps will be fine. I'm not sure it will either because there's been no evidence of an uptick in infections among the over 60s.

    Admissions are still going down, though there may be a slight hint of a slowing...

    image

    Cases are interesting

    image
    Yes, but we need to know what proportion of admissions are unvaccinated people. I'd guess at a pretty high number, well over half.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    edited March 26
    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

    This is exactly the kind of misguided terror which is paralysing people into submission.

    Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.

    We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.

    Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
    I agree, also mental health has suffered from the government's terror campaign. I saw a study saying that a significantly higher proportion of the country were reporting anxiety and stress since it started, ironically more women than men, even though they are much less likely to be affected seriously by the virus.

    Last year, a couple of healthy young friends of mine (separately) decided not to leave their homes for three months. Utterly irrational terror, and almost certainly did far more damage through stress and lack of exercise than catching a virus would have at that age.
    Didn't leave their house at all ?!
    The restrictions have never been that tight
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,997
    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

    This is exactly the kind of misguided terror which is paralysing people into submission.

    Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.

    We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.

    Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
    I agree, also mental health has suffered from the government's terror campaign. I saw a study saying that a significantly higher proportion of the country were reporting anxiety and stress since it started, ironically more women than men, even though they are much less likely to be affected seriously by the virus.

    Last year, a couple of healthy young friends of mine (separately) decided not to leave their homes for three months. Utterly irrational terror, and almost certainly did far more damage through stress and lack of exercise than catching a virus would have at that age.
    Didn't leave their house at all ?!
    Apparently not. I was suprised too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited March 26
    Foxy said:

    Voter suppression is increasingly a thing here too, with the proposal for voter ID for example.

    Meanwhile in Hartlepool, with more at 0800 it seems:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1375334294751735809?s=19

    So Labour will hold Hartlepool then due to anti lockdown voters voting RUK rather than Tory, with the Labour lead on just 3% but RUK on 9%.

    Much as Labour won the Peterborough by election because the BXP took more Tory than Labour votes
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the Gov't has looked at the success of South Korea in this and is thinking "We'll have some of that".
    You might not like it, but I think that's what's going on.

    Perfect opportunity for the Lib Dems to actually be liberal then. Can't trust Labour on this at all with the way they've slavishly eaten their own feet at the command of the Tory whips office.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,996
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    Yes, and the extension of the virus laws until September doesn't inspire any confidence that the government will ever give up these powers. Labour are equally to blame IMO, they've barely said anything about it and have voted in favour each time despite enough Tory MPs potentially willing to make the government pay attention and slim down the measures now that we're in the final stages of it.

    You're going to hate the comparison but this is what it felt like being a leave supporter from 2016-2019 watching a majority of MPs try and find a way to override democracy. The whole "well the people voted for something but there's no majority in the house" attitude has come back. There's a powerlessness that I can't stand as this whole thing is starting to feel like a stitch up between government and opposition to deny us basic freedoms.
    Personally, I think the Government would have been far better advised to just seek an extension of the rules for 3 months (which would take us to 25th June, beyond big bang date) and then review what (if anything) is needed beyond then.

    This smacks me as someone in the Cabinet listening uncritically to some civil service advice on what would be most bureaucratically convenient, and not thinking about the politics - which is their job.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,594
    Oh look - more mutual back-scratching and failing upwards.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bernard-hogan-howe-lands-sensitive-security-role-at-g7-6b367ckcn

    Hadn't realised that Hogan-Howe had so publicly been licking Johnson's arse.

    Christ - is there anyone of any integrity left in public life?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,997
    edited March 26
    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

    This is exactly the kind of misguided terror which is paralysing people into submission.

    Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.

    We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.

    Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
    I agree, also mental health has suffered from the government's terror campaign. I saw a study saying that a significantly higher proportion of the country were reporting anxiety and stress since it started, ironically more women than men, even though they are much less likely to be affected seriously by the virus.

    Last year, a couple of healthy young friends of mine (separately) decided not to leave their homes for three months. Utterly irrational terror, and almost certainly did far more damage through stress and lack of exercise than catching a virus would have at that age.
    Didn't leave their house at all ?!
    The restrictions have never been that tight
    That's my point. It wasn't the restrictions, it was the government's terror campaign that damaged their mental health.

    Reading the polls last year, of all nations surveyed, Brits were the most terrified of the virus. So the government hasn't needed to be as restrictive as some European countries when it comes to lockdown to crush domestic transmission, but at the price of badly damaging many people's mental health. And now the vulnerable are vaccinated, this is completely unjustified, if it ever was.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    I have always been impressed how the "Useful Idiots" have managed to not to notice that Russia isn't a Comment Paradise. So they are selling themselves for fascism.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,471

    Blistering piece from Fraser Nelson on the emerging threat of a state that deprives freedom indefinitely thanks to precautionary principle over covid.

    "In Whitehall, people are thinking the unthinkable: one idea is citizens sending their temperature in every day using the NHS app."

    "This is a new form of illiberal Conservatism, and it is strange to see it all take place under Boris Johnson."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/25/vaccine-passports-threaten-just-start-new-biosecurity-state/


    That's a must-read, see here: https://archive.vn/WdTxj

    "Covid levels are now so low in Britain that the Prime Minister could have proclaimed the second wave over yesterday. Instead, he asked for his Government’s emergency powers to be extended for another six months. Why, if there is no longer an emergency? Sir Keir Starmer didn’t ask."

    "at the heart of this is a question of what kind of country we are – and whether liberal Britain became a casualty of the pandemic."

    Are people at last going to wake up? The threat to liberal democracy is far more serious than the threat of the virus itself. In my view this was always the case.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,996
    Pulpstar said:

    I think the Gov't has looked at the success of South Korea in this and is thinking "We'll have some of that".
    You might not like it, but I think that's what's going on.

    Provided they don't go full-on Vegan or Woke, that alone would be enough to switch my vote to them.

    I think the erosion of the rights of the individual is one of the biggest issues of our times.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,594
    edited March 26

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT - The Liberal Democrats voting against the extension of the Covid Act is very significant - they should be doing much more of that if they want to be more relevant in future: advocating liberalism.

    Would that make me more likely to vote for them?

    Yes.

    Me too. It's about time we had a party in this country that understands what a liberal democracy is and what it should and should not do.

    As expected when I was poo-poohed on here yesterday over the direction of travel re vax passports, it now looks as if the government is not going to lift any restrictions at all post June but continue them in another guise. Social distancing will continue unless you can produce proof that you're healthy.

    And how are hospitality venues supposed to comply with this? Ah yes - ask for proof. Very well and when some council busybody or policeman comes in to ask for proof of this how are they supposed to provide it? By showing the records they've kept, maybe? Great. Go to a pub and ask them to keep medical info about you safely.

    The NHS is not overwhelmed. Deaths and cases are down significantly and continuing to decrease. Vaccinations continue. These were meant to be the data points to rely on. Now the government is tearing these up and just introducing their own version of China's social credit system. Well, stuff that.
    Where are you getting this from that this is what is going to happen?

    Utterly inexcusable if it did happen and I've seen no government spokespeople say it will happen. I can't believe it will.

    You seem to be reacting to what conspiracy theorists are saying will happen, not what anyone is actually saying will happen. Restrictions end 21/6 and to do otherwise will go down like a lead balloon.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pubs-could-ask-customers-for-blood-tests-to-prove-covid-immunity-jlhgc0bsj

    Plenty of other articles suggesting that 2 metre social distancing will be back (note currently it's 1.5 metres) unless you do this.

    We are getting the same kite-flying as before which was remarkably similar to what then was enacted. And some of it is coming from the PM. Of course maybe he doesn't know what is happening in his own government. That could be a possibility I suppose.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,376

    Blistering piece from Fraser Nelson on the emerging threat of a state that deprives freedom indefinitely thanks to precautionary principle over covid.

    "In Whitehall, people are thinking the unthinkable: one idea is citizens sending their temperature in every day using the NHS app."

    "This is a new form of illiberal Conservatism, and it is strange to see it all take place under Boris Johnson."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/25/vaccine-passports-threaten-just-start-new-biosecurity-state/


    I think I'll be voting for the LDs at the local elections, especially after the way they voted last night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,759
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh look - more mutual back-scratching and failing upwards.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bernard-hogan-howe-lands-sensitive-security-role-at-g7-6b367ckcn

    Hadn't realised that Hogan-Howe had so publicly been licking Johnson's arse.

    Christ - is there anyone of any integrity left in public life?

    Fear not. A government notorious for cronyism and bunging sweetheart contracts to mates has taken over Liverpool because of its endemic cronyism and sweetheart contracts for mates. What could possibly go wrong, when both parties are run by kleptocrats picking the public purse?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    edited March 26
    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    Where did the Labour Party disappear to?

    I too would be more likely to vote LibDem if they start opposing these frankly ridiculous restrictions.

    No one seems to want to challenge the spurious scaremongering of Johnson and his small coterie of mad scientists. Chris Whitty, for instance, was allowed to get away with utter nonsense the other day. 'Another 30,000 may die if we ease restrictions too quickly,' he stated. But this was based on an absolutely ludicrous assumption that 1/3rd of the population would be exposed to the virus. Thanks to the fact that around 10 to 20 million have already had covid and another 30 million have been vaccinated it is UTTER NONSENSE to suggest that by easing restrictions sooner 1/3rd of the population could be exposed to the virus. There simply isn't the R rate to enable that to happen. It's literally impossible. And there is no evidence that these so-called variants are going to create trouble for those vaccinated.

    I'm tired of this. Not just because I'm tired of it but because I'm tired of the fear that has turned people into cowering dogs, beaten into submission by their masters.

    It's time to stick two fingers up at the Government, have some bloody courage and get out there. Yes some people will die but not that many now. That's the whole frigging point of vaccination. As Israel realises.

    It's pathetic what we have become.

    And it's pathetic what the official Opposition have become.

    The estimate of people who died unnecessarily over Christmas due to laxity and other factors is between 20k and 30k, so I would not be so hasty.

    The wait until we can be sure is really very short.

    This is exactly the kind of misguided terror which is paralysing people into submission.

    Since Christmas the United Kingdom has embarked on one of the most successful vaccination rollouts in the world. 30 million people have already received a jab: nearly 50% of the whole population. The jabs are incredibly efficacious.

    We have been reduced to quivering wrecks.

    Stop living in fear. Get back to life.
    I agree, also mental health has suffered from the government's terror campaign. I saw a study saying that a significantly higher proportion of the country were reporting anxiety and stress since it started, ironically more women than men, even though they are much less likely to be affected seriously by the virus.

    Last year, a couple of healthy young friends of mine (separately) decided not to leave their homes for three months. Utterly irrational terror, and almost certainly did far more damage through stress and lack of exercise than catching a virus would have at that age.
    Didn't leave their house at all ?!
    Apparently not. I was suprised too.
    The estimate of unnecessary deaths over Christmas is robust imo. Recognising reality is not living in fear.

    For the record, I am Category 2 (cancer treatment), and am officially shielding until the end of March.

    I have been continuing to risk assess each activity and doing what I think necessary throughout based on prevailing risk throughout the pandemic, including shopping, walking for exercise and eating out where appropriate. Really, life has mainly continued with some precautions.

    I will not be downloading any App, just as I did not download the T&T app.

    If they try to leverage this to push through a required App, I will happily join you in Parliament Square.
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