Scaled up to the size of the UK, that'd be the equivalent of us reporting almost two thousand fatalities and over a hundred thousand new cases. No wonder the Germans have sent army medics to help them.
My major worry is that this is the Brazilian vaccine diluting variant. We need to put a velvet cordon barrier around the UK right now if this is the case. Our major vaccine, AZ, may not generate a strong enough immune response to stop symptoms.
Marks and Spencer, at least in my part of N London, are now selliing Wagyu Beef Ribeye Steaks
Not cheap: £15 a steak. But OMFG, One of the best steaks I have ever had. Much better than any Wagyu I have had in a restaurant (where it is always a bit dsappointing)
I've noticed this is a developing niche: extreme high quality produce, to cook at home. With all restaurants shut, it makes total sense
I know a Wagyu farmer - he's gone from being B2B to D2C in a few months.
Frankly, I can now cook better grub than many high street restaurants, and do better roasts than many gastro pubs I've been do. Used to love going to eg Comptoir Libanais for a quick supper. Reckon I can now do as well myself.
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
I was taking the piss out of a poster who was claiming Brexit had led to a huge reduction in that type of traffic.
Has anyone noticed any shortages?
Frankly Ive been able to buy every ingredient I want throughout January. And I live in a medium size town in Dorset....
Sounds from reports that a number of identified SA cases in the UK travelled through or from the Middle East. Qatar also added to the list, but not Bahrain or Oman.
You do slightly have to wonder if indeed it has something to do with the number of influencers posting selfies from there, rather than the viral status of the country. Priti Patel, who has gone up in my estimation lately from an admittedly chthonic level, had them in her sights yesterday.
Cases here have gone up lots and quickly, and restrictions are tightening. Live entertainment is cancelled and a lot of schools moving to remote learning.
Yes, crikey, I edited that subsequently after seeing today's stats. Not good.
From the sandpit view, there’s a certain ‘type’ of tourist who’s turned up this year, and they don’t like following strict rules observed by citizens and residents.
The whole ‘influencer culture’ thing is totally fake. They lie about where they stay, who they’re with and why they’re here. They give the impression of living lavish lifestyles that they don’t. There’s very, very few people making sufficient money from social media to afford a trip here. Most are either plugging other ‘business’ they’re doing, here for genuine work assignments, or on holiday against the rules in the UK. Sadly, too many young kids are taken in by the fakery.
Don't they just go there to be high rate prostitutes for oil sheikhs?
You may say that, Mr Max, but I couldn’t possibly comment.
I think you’ll find the term ‘yachting’ is much more acceptable use of language than your vulgarities.
Phil Whitaker (doctor and medical writer) goes second for the opposition. Majors on the medical consequences for the infected, including long COVID. Talks about exponential growth: infections before the first lockdown were rising sharply until transmission was stemmed. Challenges Brady’s assertion that rising case numbers began to level before the first lockdown, suggesting people were simply acting in advance of the government. Flags the dropping infection rates each time we have locked down. Highlights the other government failings that have led to our poor relative performance.
Scaled up to the size of the UK, that'd be the equivalent of us reporting almost two thousand fatalities and over a hundred thousand new cases. No wonder the Germans have sent army medics to help them.
My major worry is that this is the Brazilian vaccine diluting variant. We need to put a velvet cordon barrier around the UK right now if this is the case. Our major vaccine, AZ, may not generate a strong enough immune response to stop symptoms.
Hopefully you're wrong, because we're not going to keep it out. That would be hard enough if we attempted to go the whole New Zealand, given that the Government would likely be unable as well as unwilling to seal the country off to truck drivers. With the half-arsed quarantine scheme they've unveiled, not a prayer.
Laura Spinney (science journalist and novelist) opens for the opposition, pointing to the success of the Chinese in combatting the initial outbreak, arguing that ‘lockdown’ has lots of meanings and can be tailored to local circumstances, and that the early and tighter lockdowns were effective around the world. Adds that many people adopt lockdown behaviour with or without regulations, through fear, rather than chafing against the restrictions.
Why on Earth are you interested in the doings of the intellectual midgets in the Cambridge Union?
The Sunday Rawnsley is bad enough, but the Cambridge Union is far worse.
Still, I have a soft spot for the building outside which -- years ago -- I flour-bombed a Tory MP. Et in Arcadia ego.
Sad to relate, the flour-bombing was destined to be the least of the Tory MP's troubles and ... she is now an ex-Tory MP.
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Yes, but bear in mind that anything that the EU wants in print will find its way to the Guardian first, however questionable the case made.
To put this in perspective, how many doses of the AZ vaccine might in reality have been diverted to the UK from production plants in the EU? Some ball park estimates: the UK has so far administered about 8 million doses, say 5 million of which might be the AZ vaccine. Nearly all of the AZ vaccine has so far been produced in the UK, because thanks to the EU's bureaucratic inertia and incompetance the EU-based production facilities came onto the scene late and are still effectively working up. And even then they're probably benefitting from the lessons AZ learnt from the experience in getting the UK plants onstream, without which the EU-based plants would be even further behind the curve. Maybe AZ did divert their production to the UK while waiting for the EU to approve the vaccine for use, maybe they didn't. But even if they did, surely no more than 1m EU-based vaccines are presently circulating in the bodily fluids of vulnerable UK adults, and in practice the number is likely to be much less.
But the EU isn't asking for around 1m doses from UK plants to be diverted back to the EU in compensation, now that it's finally coming around to approving the vaccine for use. It's apparently demanding 75m doses from UK plants. And that difference is why the EU case is so risible and a fig leaf for its own failings.
The production from the UK is only appearing in volume at this point because the UK government acted early in backing AZ in May when the EU didn't act until at least 3 months later. Did the EU offer to underwrite the UK's financial commitment back in May in case the AZ vaccine turned out the same as the French one? No, but they act as if they did. If they want more than the ball park 1m from UK plants, they can go whistle as far as I'm concerned.
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
Each week since the 1st January our Asda order has been complete, including fresh fruit and vegetables, and our orders are larger than pre covid as we just do not go to the supermarket
I have not experienced any shortages, and indeed everything has been delivered form Amazon without any issues
I have no evidence that Brexit has had any effect
To be fair my local supermarket has less than full shelves at times - BUT
I examined some of the product lines - UK produce
I spoke to an employee who laughed at the idea it was Brexit and said it was down to staff absences due to Covid, actual or because of isolation
One member of staff there is now on their 3rd absence in the last couple of months - 1 actual case of infection 2 others of being on same shift as someone infected and track and trace saying has to isolate - in the latest he was only back 2 days after actual infection and is now off again
The situation has allegedly led to management asking employees to turn off track and trace.....
Sorry just saw your question on the ethical difference between covered short selling and naked short selling.
From a definition perspective, "naked short selling" is the sale of shares which cannot be proved to exist - i.e. (usually) where the short interest is >100% of the stock.
That's illegal. Of course the law has nothing to do with ethics, but it's worth pointing out.
On the difference between shorting when you have borrowed the stock and shorting when you haven't is one of risk. Usually the big institutions lend stock and earn an income from it. If you have to close your short then they will typically extend the contract if you can't buy in the market because they have an interest in an orderly market. (This doesn't mean they will allow you to make a profit if you mess up, but they won't drive you into bankruptcy).
When you short without having borrowed you are taking much more risk because you are exposed to a short squeeze.
The issues I have with this situation are:
(a) Naked shorting is illegal (b) The hedge funds have been stupid and jumped on a bandwagon (c) Retail investors coordinating on a short squeeze are - in my view - engaging in market abuse
No body comes out of this well.
Someone else suggested it earlier, but I reckon the company should do a capital raise. But I doubt that any credible underwriters will run it for them.
I've not been following this in detail, but I note that the business is a video games outfit. Are the legion of retail investors piling in mostly speculators hoping for a windfall, or game players rallying round their business? I know we can't really know for sure, but what sort of groups are pushing it?
Early this morning, a failing chain of video game retailers, who is being beaten by Amazon and digital distribitution, which is loss making, and which is seeing its sales fall, reached a value that would have made it the sixth largest company in the FTSE100, ahead of Vodafone.
Day traders on Robinhood discovered that if they acted in concert they could create a massive short squeeze. (GME was heavily shorted because... well, it's going to go out of business.) As the price ran, up hedge funds found that they had growing losses and were forced to close their positions by buying back stock. This sent the stock into the stratosphere.
Smart daytraders (both of them) will have left the party at this point. Dumb ones will remain, and will lose all their money as their call options expire worthless on Feb 19, as the number of real buyers of GME stock at (checks price) $250 is... ummm.... zero.
That is perhaps a little unfair to GameStop.
Yes they had been failing but the effective takeover by the Chewy founder and the plans to move far more online combined with the Microsoft deal meant that by the beginning of this year they were in a much better position. Indeed the Shorters had been desperately trying to drive the share price down unsuccessfully. They were trying to break a company that had probably turned the corner in order to defend their earlier short positions.
Personally I am very glad they have had their fingers burnt and it would be nice to see GameStop now move into a sustainable position again.
Hmmm.
PC games are now almost entirely sold on-line - and Steam is the number one player there, and Epic a distant second. Where is GameStop?
In consoles, Microsoft and Sony are now trying to get people paying monthly subscriptions (and are succeeding). Physical console game sales will - inevitably - be more expensive those delivered directly over the Internet.
And then there are products like Stadia and GeForce Now and Amazon's game streaming service.
Right now, GameStop is briefly benefiting from the launch of new consoles. But what's their long term competitive advantage? Especially as they are already loss making, and can't match the investments made by other players.
They're Radio Shack.
I have no love or loathing for short sellers. But I struggle to see a long term winning strategy for GameStop.
Do a huge rights issue. Buy Steam...
Steam is probably worth $40bn, and Gabe won't sell.
Plus, the moment you tried to do a big rights issue the price would collapse, as every short would be able to leave the party by buying directly from the company.
OK, Steam was slightly tongue in cheek - but surely they could lock in a huge cash windfall by pitching at a balance price that allowed the shorts to buy their way out of trouble, directly from the company?
Sounds from reports that a number of identified SA cases in the UK travelled through or from the Middle East. Qatar also added to the list, but not Bahrain or Oman.
You do slightly have to wonder if indeed it has something to do with the number of influencers posting selfies from there, rather than the viral status of the country. Priti Patel, who has gone up in my estimation lately from an admittedly chthonic level, had them in her sights yesterday.
Edit. Ah, just saw those UAE stats. Ouch. Not good.
I have close friends in Dubai. They are now rather unsettled
I am not sure that the comparison in the header really works, as the EU is at least reasonably similar in its role to the technocrats running things in the UK rollout.
I am sure that when Member Countries get jabbing, politicians will be all over it.
Germany has done well over a million jags, how many Foto ops have German pols done?
Pols doing photo ops are everywhere. The Boris one is at that Livingstone Vaccination Centre set up as part of the Vaccines Task Force Programme.
Boris, Sturgeon, Macron, Macron, German Land PM x2.
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
I was taking the piss out of a poster who was claiming Brexit had led to a huge reduction in that type of traffic.
Has anyone noticed any shortages?
Frankly Ive been able to buy every ingredient I want throughout January. And I live in a medium size town in Dorset....
I’ve noticed a relative shortage of mince pies. More than you could eat and then, poof, Brexit and they disappear from our shelves.
Marks and Spencer, at least in my part of N London, are now selliing Wagyu Beef Ribeye Steaks
Not cheap: £15 a steak. But OMFG, One of the best steaks I have ever had. Much better than any Wagyu I have had in a restaurant (where it is always a bit dsappointing)
I've noticed this is a developing niche: extreme high quality produce, to cook at home. With all restaurants shut, it makes total sense
I know a Wagyu farmer - he's gone from being B2B to D2C in a few months.
Frankly, I can now cook better grub than many high street restaurants, and do better roasts than many gastro pubs I've been do. Used to love going to eg Comptoir Libanais for a quick supper. Reckon I can now do as well myself.
Necessity is the mother of all invention.
Recipe boxes are all the rage nowadays. They’ve been a bit of a life saver through lockdown, just to mix things up a bit
Scaled up to the size of the UK, that'd be the equivalent of us reporting almost two thousand fatalities and over a hundred thousand new cases. No wonder the Germans have sent army medics to help them.
My major worry is that this is the Brazilian vaccine diluting variant. We need to put a velvet cordon barrier around the UK right now if this is the case. Our major vaccine, AZ, may not generate a strong enough immune response to stop symptoms.
Hopefully you're wrong, because we're not going to keep it out. That would be hard enough if we attempted to go the whole New Zealand, given that the Government would likely be unable as well as unwilling to seal the country off to truck drivers. With the half-arsed quarantine scheme they've unveiled, not a prayer.
I actually think we'd need to think about ending roll on roll off supply and putting everything in container ships. Honestly, this is the kind of contingency planning the government needed to do over the last year. What would it take for the UK to be good sufficient for the six weeks to get supply chains switched over to container ships, how much stockpiling would supermarkets need to do, how much reshoring of agricultural processing would be necessary and such.
The alternative is literally starting again from scratch and another 6 months in lockdown while we wait for vaccines to be updated and tested. I'd rather deal with not being able to get salami for 6 weeks than have to add 6 months of miserable lockdown.
How many years' EU membership fees did it cost to get us ahead in the vaccine queue?
We should put that on a bus.
Given a year of lock down has cost us around 400 billions or about 45 years of eu fees and the eu lockdown has probably cost the same but they still have to do it another year because they arent good at vaccines I would suggest we are quids in
Given that we've invested enormously in the research and development compared to our beloved neighbours and almost anyone else, we're prepared to guinea pig our elderly to show the AZ vaccine works on them (there's zero evidence that it'll do any harm, there's plenty of evidence that it will help - as much as there was for Pfizer who had to make their PII trial top age group 56+ to hide how few over 65 and 75s they had, but which has now been guinea pigged by the Jews for the Germans; a rather unfortunate optic) I don't see why there should be any issue with us getting our economy back up and running again asap to recoup some of our crippling spending on this pandemic, even if at the expense of such speed for our friends - who we're constantly assured are far better off due to being in the amazing EU.
Deleted, but since my comment is now stuck here, I will just say that I'm quite enjoying IanB2's precis of the lockdown debate, since actually watching it is likely to raise my blood pressure to inconvenient levels.
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Yes, but bear in mind that anything that the EU wants in print will find its way to the Guardian first, however questionable the case made.
To put this in perspective, how many doses of the AZ vaccine might in reality have been diverted to the UK from production plants in the EU? Some ball park estimates: the UK has so far administered about 8 million doses, say 5 million of which might be the AZ vaccine. Nearly all of the AZ vaccine has so far been produced in the UK, because thanks to the EU's bureaucratic inertia and incompetance the EU-based production facilities came onto the scene late and are still effectively working up. And even then they're probably benefitting from the lessons AZ learnt from the experience in getting the UK plants onstream, without which the EU-based plants would be even further behind the curve. Maybe AZ did divert their production to the UK while waiting for the EU to approve the vaccine for use, maybe they didn't. But even if they did, surely no more than 1m EU-based vaccines are presently circulating in the bodily fluids of vulnerable UK adults, and in practice the number is likely to be much less.
But the EU isn't asking for around 1m doses from UK plants to be diverted back to the EU in compensation, now that it's finally coming around to approving the vaccine for use. It's apparently demanding 75m doses from UK plants. And that difference is why the EU case is so risible and a fig leaf for its own failings.
The production from the UK is only appearing in volume at this point because the UK government acted early in backing AZ in May when the EU didn't act until at least 3 months later. Did the EU offer to underwrite the UK's financial commitment back in May in case the AZ vaccine turned out the same as the French one? No, but they act as if they did. If they want more than the ball park 1m from UK plants, they can go whistle as far as I'm concerned.
I think it was the putting-in-vials process that was done in the plant in Belgium. I'm wondering if it was linked to the flood, but that is speculation.
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
Each week since the 1st January our Asda order has been complete, including fresh fruit and vegetables, and our orders are larger than pre covid as we just do not go to the supermarket
I have not experienced any shortages, and indeed everything has been delivered from Amazon without any issues
I have no evidence that Brexit has had any effect
Waitrose in Cowbridge had many empty shelves last night. If it's definitely not Brexit, it must be further evidence of Drakeford's Covid mismanagement.
Sounds from reports that a number of identified SA cases in the UK travelled through or from the Middle East. Qatar also added to the list, but not Bahrain or Oman.
You do slightly have to wonder if indeed it has something to do with the number of influencers posting selfies from there, rather than the viral status of the country. Priti Patel, who has gone up in my estimation lately from an admittedly chthonic level, had them in her sights yesterday.
Edit. Ah, just saw those UAE stats. Ouch. Not good.
I have close friends in Dubai. They are now rather unsettled
Can we make it a month from there. In a Faraday Cage?
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
I was taking the piss out of a poster who was claiming Brexit had led to a huge reduction in that type of traffic.
Has anyone noticed any shortages?
Frankly Ive been able to buy every ingredient I want throughout January. And I live in a medium size town in Dorset....
I’ve noticed a relative shortage of mince pies. More than you could eat and then, poof, Brexit and they disappear from our shelves.
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Interesting read, but pure conjecture until we actually get to the bottom of the terms of the respective contracts. Three simple observations:
1. If this does imperil AZ supply to the UK, then hopefully the court cases or arbitrations will take long enough to work their way through that we've taken delivery of most of the doses needed to get phase 1 completed by the time it concludes. We ought certainly to be OK for the first milestone target in mid-February, as there are widespread reports of the 70-74s and shielders receiving jabs in recent days 2. With luck, by the time this is all sorted out Pfizer will have got their shit together, in which case the UK Government can use its share from them to help plug any deficiencies in AZ supply if they're forced to give ground to the Commission; however... 3. If the EU both wrings concessions from AZ and goes nuts and starts slapping export bans on Pfizer, the UK Government could justifiably act in kind and keep the supply from the British AZ plants to cover its needs. Under those circumstances we'd be a bit slower getting all adults vaccinated, but that would disproportionately impact the younger, less vulnerable recipients and we ought still to be done in September, i.e. before the cold, wet weather returns, according to latest estimates
I'm therefore feeling reasonably confident that the ongoing fallout from the EU's procurement woes ought not to cause serious damage to the UK vaccination programme. Good news for all of us.
WTF. Pacifist. We should be drawing up plane to re-invade Aquitaine, and take ownership, on the grounds we can vaccinate them, unlike Paris
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Yes, but bear in mind that anything that the EU wants in print will find its way to the Guardian first, however questionable the case made.
To put this in perspective, how many doses of the AZ vaccine might in reality have been diverted to the UK from production plants in the EU? Some ball park estimates: the UK has so far administered about 8 million doses, say 5 million of which might be the AZ vaccine. Nearly all of the AZ vaccine has so far been produced in the UK, because thanks to the EU's bureaucratic inertia and incompetance the EU-based production facilities came onto the scene late and are still effectively working up. And even then they're probably benefitting from the lessons AZ learnt from the experience in getting the UK plants onstream, without which the EU-based plants would be even further behind the curve. Maybe AZ did divert their production to the UK while waiting for the EU to approve the vaccine for use, maybe they didn't. But even if they did, surely no more than 1m EU-based vaccines are presently circulating in the bodily fluids of vulnerable UK adults, and in practice the number is likely to be much less.
But the EU isn't asking for around 1m doses from UK plants to be diverted back to the EU in compensation, now that it's finally coming around to approving the vaccine for use. It's apparently demanding 75m doses from UK plants. And that difference is why the EU case is so risible and a fig leaf for its own failings.
The production from the UK is only appearing in volume at this point because the UK government acted early in backing AZ in May when the EU didn't act until at least 3 months later. Did the EU offer to underwrite the UK's financial commitment back in May in case the AZ vaccine turned out the same as the French one? No, but they act as if they did. If they want more than the ball park 1m from UK plants, they can go whistle as far as I'm concerned.
I think it was the putting-in-vials process that was done in the plant in Belgium. I'm wondering if it was linked to the flood, but that is speculation.
Nah, it's being done in Wrexham. It was supposed to happen in Germany, but the Germans fucked up so AZ flew our doses to Wrexham, it's actually the main reason we didn't get anywhere near the 20m promised by AZ.
How many years' EU membership fees did it cost to get us ahead in the vaccine queue?
We should put that on a bus.
Brexit had nothing to do with it. The crucial decisions had been taken before the idea of an EU scheme even came about.
The pressure for the UK to join would have been enormous had it still been a member state. See what happened with the scheme a couple of the states tried before it was absorbed into the EU scheme.
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Yes, but bear in mind that anything that the EU wants in print will find its way to the Guardian first, however questionable the case made.
To put this in perspective, how many doses of the AZ vaccine might in reality have been diverted to the UK from production plants in the EU? Some ball park estimates: the UK has so far administered about 8 million doses, say 5 million of which might be the AZ vaccine. Nearly all of the AZ vaccine has so far been produced in the UK, because thanks to the EU's bureaucratic inertia and incompetance the EU-based production facilities came onto the scene late and are still effectively working up. And even then they're probably benefitting from the lessons AZ learnt from the experience in getting the UK plants onstream, without which the EU-based plants would be even further behind the curve. Maybe AZ did divert their production to the UK while waiting for the EU to approve the vaccine for use, maybe they didn't. But even if they did, surely no more than 1m EU-based vaccines are presently circulating in the bodily fluids of vulnerable UK adults, and in practice the number is likely to be much less.
But the EU isn't asking for around 1m doses from UK plants to be diverted back to the EU in compensation, now that it's finally coming around to approving the vaccine for use. It's apparently demanding 75m doses from UK plants. And that difference is why the EU case is so risible and a fig leaf for its own failings.
The production from the UK is only appearing in volume at this point because the UK government acted early in backing AZ in May when the EU didn't act until at least 3 months later. Did the EU offer to underwrite the UK's financial commitment back in May in case the AZ vaccine turned out the same as the French one? No, but they act as if they did. If they want more than the ball park 1m from UK plants, they can go whistle as far as I'm concerned.
I am so pissed off with the eu. I planned in 2020 to visit family, my sister and goddaughter in sweden, and my daughter and goddaughter in holland. Because they hasve been so shite I see no prospect of that happening
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
Each week since the 1st January our Asda order has been complete, including fresh fruit and vegetables, and our orders are larger than pre covid as we just do not go to the supermarket
I have not experienced any shortages, and indeed everything has been delivered from Amazon without any issues
I have no evidence that Brexit has had any effect
My Ocado delivery was missing a couple of items, neither of which were fresh.
“ Downing Street has refused to rule out the possibility of the UK sending vaccine supplies to the EU once the most vulnerable people in the UK have been vaccinated, assuming the timetable to vaccinate other adults by September stays on track. “
Do it Boris. Don’t listen to the rabid anti Christian ravers on PB. Their only religion is frothed up hatred of EU, that’s not Brexit is it?
Once vulnerable people in UK have been jabbed, share it Boris.
Keep your religion in your church please.
I think you'll find everyone here said that the EU getting doses once everyone in the UK has had it would be fair enough. You were saying to do it before vaccinations here are completed.
Agreed. Once our over 60s and potentially then key workers are done I would understand if vaccines for the likes of myself were diverted to help priority groups in Europe.
When I said completed I meant completed. Everyone done.
Insisting on everyone in one country being done before the vulnerable elsewhere is exactly the sort of vaccine nationalism that will prolong the pandemic.
Er, what? I'm happy to wait until older and more vulnerable Britons have been protected, but no way am I waiting until all those groups in the entire EU have been done! There's altruism, and then there's masochistic martyrdom.
A natural enough impulse but the decision makers will hopefully be more far-sighted. From each according to their abilities. To each according to their needs. This must be more than a platitude on the global vaccination. It must be the guiding spirit. Otherwise forget about getting out of this before many more years have passed.
No way - we get all our people done first and then we can be as generous to the rest of the world as we like. Making younger people wait any longer than they are due to already would be a catastrophic mistake, and I hope the government won't be stupid enough to make it.
If all countries follow that template it will prolong the pandemic.
Can we assume you will decline the vaccination so that people at higher risk throughout the world can receive if first ?
Can we assume you would steal a jab from a penniless 85 year old Arabian nomad?
Your overwhelming virtue and saintliness is quite something. Presumably you would like to delay vaccination for all your vulnerable British friends relatives parents in the 40s, 50s, 60s, or with desperate diseases, and make them wait for years until we, in Britain, have personally vaccinated everyone in the developing world with a British vaccine paid for by British taxpayers and developed in Britain. And we should also hang back until we have jabbed anyone in Ireland with a cough. Or Germans with asthma.
I am curious. Where do you draw the line? At what point do your fellow Brits get priority?
How many years' EU membership fees did it cost to get us ahead in the vaccine queue?
We should put that on a bus.
Brexit had nothing to do with it. The crucial decisions had been taken before the idea of an EU scheme even came about.
The pressure for the UK to join would have been enormous had it still been a member state. See what happened with the scheme a couple of the states tried before it was absorbed into the EU scheme.
We had already signed a deal with AstraZeneca before the scheme came about. If anything, if we had been a member it might have meant an EU-wide AstraZeneca contract could have been agreed in a timely manner and the overall production capacity would have been higher by now. The EU is worse off because of Brexit.
Yes - unlike all that silliness over the spurious 8% figure that came out a couple of days ago, the German regulator's decision is sensible and uncontroversial.
It simply reflects a difference of approach. The Germans are being very cautious, presumably waiting to get in use data from us and determine whether AZ approaches the efficacy of Pfizer in the old before committing to its use. The UK regulator has basically decided that it's more important to get as many jabs into as many arms to protect as many people as possible, and not fuss over whether it's very effective, or merely fairly effective, in individual patients.
If the Germans end up using the mRNA vaccines for all their olds, even if this takes considerably longer to achieve, then that's their choice. Perhaps they think that this approach will save more lives in the long run, because fewer recipients will suffer symptomatic infection (although if AZ prevents hospitalisation in use as well as it did in the trial stages then that shouldn't be a problem,) or perhaps they feel less of a sense of urgency because their pandemic hasn't been quite as bad as ours? I don't know. You can make a constructive case for both the UK and the German policies, I suppose.
Which rather puts things in perspective for me. The EU is struggling to match the spend of its leaving member, even though we've only spent one year of our former annual fee to them.
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Yes, but bear in mind that anything that the EU wants in print will find its way to the Guardian first, however questionable the case made.
To put this in perspective, how many doses of the AZ vaccine might in reality have been diverted to the UK from production plants in the EU? Some ball park estimates: the UK has so far administered about 8 million doses, say 5 million of which might be the AZ vaccine. Nearly all of the AZ vaccine has so far been produced in the UK, because thanks to the EU's bureaucratic inertia and incompetance the EU-based production facilities came onto the scene late and are still effectively working up. And even then they're probably benefitting from the lessons AZ learnt from the experience in getting the UK plants onstream, without which the EU-based plants would be even further behind the curve. Maybe AZ did divert their production to the UK while waiting for the EU to approve the vaccine for use, maybe they didn't. But even if they did, surely no more than 1m EU-based vaccines are presently circulating in the bodily fluids of vulnerable UK adults, and in practice the number is likely to be much less.
But the EU isn't asking for around 1m doses from UK plants to be diverted back to the EU in compensation, now that it's finally coming around to approving the vaccine for use. It's apparently demanding 75m doses from UK plants. And that difference is why the EU case is so risible and a fig leaf for its own failings.
The production from the UK is only appearing in volume at this point because the UK government acted early in backing AZ in May when the EU didn't act until at least 3 months later. Did the EU offer to underwrite the UK's financial commitment back in May in case the AZ vaccine turned out the same as the French one? No, but they act as if they did. If they want more than the ball park 1m from UK plants, they can go whistle as far as I'm concerned.
I think it was the putting-in-vials process that was done in the plant in Belgium. I'm wondering if it was linked to the flood, but that is speculation.
Nah, it's being done in Wrexham. It was supposed to happen in Germany, but the Germans fucked up so AZ flew our doses to Wrexham, it's actually the main reason we didn't get anywhere near the 20m promised by AZ.
But hopefully a big chunk of vaccine vials once that has happened.
Yes - unlike all that silliness over the spurious 8% figure that came out a couple of days ago, the German regulator's decision is sensible and uncontroversial.
It simply reflects a difference of approach. The Germans are being very cautious, presumably waiting to get in use data from us and determine whether AZ approaches the efficacy of Pfizer in the old before committing to its use. The UK regulator has basically decided that it's more important to get as many jabs into as many arms to protect as many people as possible, and not fuss over whether it's very effective, or merely fairly effective, in individual patients.
If the Germans end up using the mRNA vaccines for all their olds, even if this takes considerably longer to achieve, then that's their choice. Perhaps they think that this approach will save more lives in the long run, because fewer recipients will suffer symptomatic infection (although if AZ prevents hospitalisation in use as well as it did in the trial stages then that shouldn't be a problem,) or perhaps they feel less of a sense of urgency because their pandemic hasn't been quite as bad as ours? I don't know. You can make a constructive case for both the UK and the German policies, I suppose.
Toby Young wraps up for the proposers. Argues that government must always have a cast iron case before suspending our liberties, yet there has been no cost benefit analysis. Suggests the harm of lockdown is worse than the benefit. Says the current measures are unprecedented. Points to multiple studies showing that severity of lockdown makes no difference to mortality (e.g. Cali is no better off than Florida). Underlines the economic damage, and catastrophic consequences for the future, including to education and health. Advocates focused protection of the vulnerable, early border controls, effective tracing, and voluntary sensible precautions for everyone else.
One thought if the EU does indeed block vaccine exports to the UK...
Rather than blocking our exports to them that feed into the vaccine manufacturing process, could we just introduce tariffs on vaccine-related exports to them? By say, 10,000%?
The EU would surely have to pay any price in such a scenario, given it commenced the escalation and needs the vaccines? It would avoid us interrupting vaccine manufacturing that does ultimately save lives in Europe and beyond, while still sending a clear message to the EU and encouraging them to come to the table.
The 10,000% can of course be scaled up with time if needed...
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
Each week since the 1st January our Asda order has been complete, including fresh fruit and vegetables, and our orders are larger than pre covid as we just do not go to the supermarket
I have not experienced any shortages, and indeed everything has been delivered from Amazon without any issues
I have no evidence that Brexit has had any effect
My Ocado delivery was missing a couple of items, neither of which were fresh.
Yes - unlike all that silliness over the spurious 8% figure that came out a couple of days ago, the German regulator's decision is sensible and uncontroversial.
It simply reflects a difference of approach. The Germans are being very cautious, presumably waiting to get in use data from us and determine whether AZ approaches the efficacy of Pfizer in the old before committing to its use. The UK regulator has basically decided that it's more important to get as many jabs into as many arms to protect as many people as possible, and not fuss over whether it's very effective, or merely fairly effective, in individual patients.
If the Germans end up using the mRNA vaccines for all their olds, even if this takes considerably longer to achieve, then that's their choice. Perhaps they think that this approach will save more lives in the long run, because fewer recipients will suffer symptomatic infection (although if AZ prevents hospitalisation in use as well as it did in the trial stages then that shouldn't be a problem,) or perhaps they feel less of a sense of urgency because their pandemic hasn't been quite as bad as ours? I don't know. You can make a constructive case for both the UK and the German policies, I suppose.
The Germans want guinea pigs.
Meanwhile, their oldies die of Covid. For want of trying a vaccine that might not work (so in no worse a place than by being cautious), but if it does would almost certainly save many of them (so a much better place than being cautious).
But as I said earlier - so what? They have no vaccine anyway. Angels on pinheads.
Yes - unlike all that silliness over the spurious 8% figure that came out a couple of days ago, the German regulator's decision is sensible and uncontroversial.
It simply reflects a difference of approach. The Germans are being very cautious, presumably waiting to get in use data from us and determine whether AZ approaches the efficacy of Pfizer in the old before committing to its use. The UK regulator has basically decided that it's more important to get as many jabs into as many arms to protect as many people as possible, and not fuss over whether it's very effective, or merely fairly effective, in individual patients.
If the Germans end up using the mRNA vaccines for all their olds, even if this takes considerably longer to achieve, then that's their choice. Perhaps they think that this approach will save more lives in the long run, because fewer recipients will suffer symptomatic infection (although if AZ prevents hospitalisation in use as well as it did in the trial stages then that shouldn't be a problem,) or perhaps they feel less of a sense of urgency because their pandemic hasn't been quite as bad as ours? I don't know. You can make a constructive case for both the UK and the German policies, I suppose.
Quite.
The Germans have every right to decide for themselves, as we do.
I'm happy with our Government's decision but if the Germans think differently, that's their business.
Which rather puts things in perspective for me. The EU is struggling to match the spend of its leaving member, even though we've only spent one year of our former annual fee to them.
WTF are they playing at?
"With this letter from Spahn [German Health Minister] the EU's vaccine disaster began"
It is THE central document in the vaccine disaster!
A letter that shows how Health Minister Jens Spahn (40, CDU) and his counterparts from France, Italy and the Netherlands ceded procurement of the life-saving vaccine to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (62) and in a humble tone apologized for their efforts on vaccine procurement. The letter is exclusively available to BILD.
According to BILD information, it was important to both Chancellor Angela Merkel (66, CDU) and von der Leyen that the letter from Spahn and his colleagues was written in the most obsequious tone possible.
How many years' EU membership fees did it cost to get us ahead in the vaccine queue?
We should put that on a bus.
Brexit had nothing to do with it. The crucial decisions had been taken before the idea of an EU scheme even came about.
The pressure for the UK to join would have been enormous had it still been a member state. See what happened with the scheme a couple of the states tried before it was absorbed into the EU scheme.
We had already signed a deal with AstraZeneca before the scheme came about. If anything, if we had been a member it might have meant an EU-wide AstraZeneca contract could have been agreed in a timely manner and the overall production capacity would have been higher by now. The EU is worse off because of Brexit.
No, we didn't join the EU scheme because our AZ deal wasn't admissable under the terms, the EU commission told the VTF it would need to be renegotiated to remove the subsidy element and exclusive supply parts of it. It was the moment the government said thanks, but no thanks because they'd already signed it and were in talks with Novavax for a very similar deal of development and manufacturing subsidies in return for exclusive domestic supply.
That was, and still is, the main issue with the EU scheme, it didn't inceitivise manufacturers to build new capacity, it in fact tried to bargain on price which means running the EU supply chain on lesser investment to try and meet minimum ROI thresholds for new capacity. Unsurprisingly very little new capacity was built becuase it's expensive to construct new manufacturing lines and pharmaceutical companies answer to shareholders.
Ultimately what's happening now is that the EU is trying to freeride from the UK's far more generous scheme to pharma. What it should be doing is accepting that their summer timetable isn't going to be possible but working with AZ, Pfizer, J&J and Novavax and asking them what it would take to get new supply ready for June/July of this year so at least by the end of October everyone will have had it.
Scaled up to the size of the UK, that'd be the equivalent of us reporting almost two thousand fatalities and over a hundred thousand new cases. No wonder the Germans have sent army medics to help them.
My major worry is that this is the Brazilian vaccine diluting variant. We need to put a velvet cordon barrier around the UK right now if this is the case. Our major vaccine, AZ, may not generate a strong enough immune response to stop symptoms.
Hopefully you're wrong, because we're not going to keep it out. That would be hard enough if we attempted to go the whole New Zealand, given that the Government would likely be unable as well as unwilling to seal the country off to truck drivers. With the half-arsed quarantine scheme they've unveiled, not a prayer.
RTÉ sent a crew to Dublin Airport today to talk to arriving passengers in advance of their new quarantine restrictions being imposed.
One of the people they spoke to was an elderly English gent who was in transit back to England from Portugal. Coming home for medical treatment he said.
Yes - unlike all that silliness over the spurious 8% figure that came out a couple of days ago, the German regulator's decision is sensible and uncontroversial.
It simply reflects a difference of approach. The Germans are being very cautious, presumably waiting to get in use data from us and determine whether AZ approaches the efficacy of Pfizer in the old before committing to its use. The UK regulator has basically decided that it's more important to get as many jabs into as many arms to protect as many people as possible, and not fuss over whether it's very effective, or merely fairly effective, in individual patients.
If the Germans end up using the mRNA vaccines for all their olds, even if this takes considerably longer to achieve, then that's their choice. Perhaps they think that this approach will save more lives in the long run, because fewer recipients will suffer symptomatic infection (although if AZ prevents hospitalisation in use as well as it did in the trial stages then that shouldn't be a problem,) or perhaps they feel less of a sense of urgency because their pandemic hasn't been quite as bad as ours? I don't know. You can make a constructive case for both the UK and the German policies, I suppose.
The Germans want guinea pigs.
Meanwhile, their oldies die of Covid. For want of trying a vaccine that might not work (so in no worse a place than by being cautious), but if it does would almost certainly save many of them (so a much better place than being cautious).
But as I said earlier - so what? They have no vaccine anyway. Angels on pinheads.
Smart of them: get rid of the expensive crusties, and make that German population pyramid look a little less inverted.
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Interesting read, but pure conjecture until we actually get to the bottom of the terms of the respective contracts. Three simple observations:
1. If this does imperil AZ supply to the UK, then hopefully the court cases or arbitrations will take long enough to work their way through that we've taken delivery of most of the doses needed to get phase 1 completed by the time it concludes. We ought certainly to be OK for the first milestone target in mid-February, as there are widespread reports of the 70-74s and shielders receiving jabs in recent days 2. With luck, by the time this is all sorted out Pfizer will have got their shit together, in which case the UK Government can use its share from them to help plug any deficiencies in AZ supply if they're forced to give ground to the Commission; however... 3. If the EU both wrings concessions from AZ and goes nuts and starts slapping export bans on Pfizer, the UK Government could justifiably act in kind and keep the supply from the British AZ plants to cover its needs. Under those circumstances we'd be a bit slower getting all adults vaccinated, but that would disproportionately impact the younger, less vulnerable recipients and we ought still to be done in September, i.e. before the cold, wet weather returns, according to latest estimates
I'm therefore feeling reasonably confident that the ongoing fallout from the EU's procurement woes ought not to cause serious damage to the UK vaccination programme. Good news for all of us.
WTF. Pacifist. We should be drawing up plane to re-invade Aquitaine, and take ownership, on the grounds we can vaccinate them, unlike Paris
Well, I just want a quiet life.
Perhaps we could do a swap instead? Normandy for Scotland?
I'm a little surprised nobody has given their opinion to a question I posed earlier about whether the Irish government would accept help from us with vaccines if we'd finished our programme and wanted to first of all get the CTA completed. Would the EU insist on Ireland handing over the vast majority of it in the interest of "fairness"?
How many years' EU membership fees did it cost to get us ahead in the vaccine queue?
We should put that on a bus.
Brexit had nothing to do with it. The crucial decisions had been taken before the idea of an EU scheme even came about.
The pressure for the UK to join would have been enormous had it still been a member state. See what happened with the scheme a couple of the states tried before it was absorbed into the EU scheme.
We had already signed a deal with AstraZeneca before the scheme came about. If anything, if we had been a member it might have meant an EU-wide AstraZeneca contract could have been agreed in a timely manner and the overall production capacity would have been higher by now. The EU is worse off because of Brexit.
No, we didn't join the EU scheme because our AZ deal wasn't admissable under the terms, the EU commission told the VTF it would need to be renegotiated to remove the subsidy element and exclusive supply parts of it. It was the moment the government said thanks, but no thanks because they'd already signed it and were in talks with Novavax for a very similar deal of development and manufacturing subsidies in return for exclusive domestic supply.
That was, and still is, the main issue with the EU scheme, it didn't inceitivise manufacturers to build new capacity, it in fact tried to bargain on price which means running the EU supply chain on lesser investment to try and meet minimum ROI thresholds for new capacity. Unsurprisingly very little new capacity was built becuase it's expensive to construct new manufacturing lines and pharmaceutical companies answer to shareholders.
Ultimately what's happening now is that the EU is trying to freeride from the UK's far more generous scheme to pharma. What it should be doing is accepting that their summer timetable isn't going to be possible but working with AZ, Pfizer, J&J and Novavax and asking them what it would take to get new supply ready for June/July of this year so at least by the end of October everyone will have had it.
The EU scheme was itself a panicked reaction to Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands going it alone with AstraZeneca. Had we also been a direct part of the decision making process, I doubt it would have played out in the same way.
Which rather puts things in perspective for me. The EU is struggling to match the spend of its leaving member, even though we've only spent one year of our former annual fee to them.
WTF are they playing at?
And at the end of that £11.7bn, we have a world-leading pharma capacity out of it.
Toby Young wraps up for the proposers. Argues that government must always have a cast iron case before suspending our liberties, yet there has been no cost benefit analysis. Suggests the harm of lockdown is worse than the benefit. Says the current measures are unprecedented. Points to multiple studies showing that severity of lockdown makes no difference to mortality (e.g. Cali is no better off than Florida). Underlines the economic damage, and catastrophic consequences for the future, including to education and health. Advocates focused protection of the vulnerable, early border controls, effective tracing, and voluntary sensible precautions for everyone else.
Toby Young?!! Hasn't he been wrong in every material respect since the pandemic began?
Which rather puts things in perspective for me. The EU is struggling to match the spend of its leaving member, even though we've only spent one year of our former annual fee to them.
WTF are they playing at?
"With this letter from Spahn [German Health Minister] the EU's vaccine disaster began"
It is THE central document in the vaccine disaster!
A letter that shows how Health Minister Jens Spahn (40, CDU) and his counterparts from France, Italy and the Netherlands ceded procurement of the life-saving vaccine to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (62) and in a humble tone apologized for their efforts on vaccine procurement. The letter is exclusively available to BILD.
According to BILD information, it was important to both Chancellor Angela Merkel (66, CDU) and von der Leyen that the letter from Spahn and his colleagues was written in the most obsequious tone possible.
That's it. That is the EU in a nutshell. That is Why Brexit
We were right to Leave. It will be painful, and cost us, especially in London. But anti-democracy and technocratic ineptitude is in the EU's DNA. The Project is all, and becomes self-justifying, as it recruits more members, who rely on it for income or status, like Catholiclism in the medieval clerisy.
I predict that one day you will become a Leaver. You are too smart not to.
Which rather puts things in perspective for me. The EU is struggling to match the spend of its leaving member, even though we've only spent one year of our former annual fee to them.
WTF are they playing at?
"With this letter from Spahn [German Health Minister] the EU's vaccine disaster began"
It is THE central document in the vaccine disaster!
A letter that shows how Health Minister Jens Spahn (40, CDU) and his counterparts from France, Italy and the Netherlands ceded procurement of the life-saving vaccine to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (62) and in a humble tone apologized for their efforts on vaccine procurement. The letter is exclusively available to BILD.
According to BILD information, it was important to both Chancellor Angela Merkel (66, CDU) and von der Leyen that the letter from Spahn and his colleagues was written in the most obsequious tone possible.
Is it time to talk financial passporting. Just coincidentally at the same time as talk of an ever so slightly "fairer" distribution of vaccines?
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
Each week since the 1st January our Asda order has been complete, including fresh fruit and vegetables, and our orders are larger than pre covid as we just do not go to the supermarket
I have not experienced any shortages, and indeed everything has been delivered from Amazon without any issues
I have no evidence that Brexit has had any effect
Waitrose in Cowbridge had many empty shelves last night. If it's definitely not Brexit, it must be further evidence of Drakeford's Covid mismanagement.
Mark Drakeford has gone from Zero to Hero.
Mark is now in second place in the Great Vaccine Race. He has overtaken first Nicola and then Arlene. He is now chasing down the Shagster.
Next step, Mark is going to commandeer the Wrecsam vaccine plant and announce no more exports to England, until all of Wales is done.
How many years' EU membership fees did it cost to get us ahead in the vaccine queue?
We should put that on a bus.
Brexit had nothing to do with it. The crucial decisions had been taken before the idea of an EU scheme even came about.
The pressure for the UK to join would have been enormous had it still been a member state. See what happened with the scheme a couple of the states tried before it was absorbed into the EU scheme.
We had already signed a deal with AstraZeneca before the scheme came about. If anything, if we had been a member it might have meant an EU-wide AstraZeneca contract could have been agreed in a timely manner and the overall production capacity would have been higher by now. The EU is worse off because of Brexit.
Yeah, or they might have still messed around and the overall contract would have still been agreed late.
Most Leavers (I think) are happy to agree that the EU is worse off because of Brexit. The question was whether we're (overall) better off out or in.
"AstraZeneca appears to be in danger of breaching its contract to supply the EU, and may have to renegotiate its contract to supply vaccines to the EU, the UK or both, legal experts have warned"
Interesting read, but pure conjecture until we actually get to the bottom of the terms of the respective contracts. Three simple observations:
1. If this does imperil AZ supply to the UK, then hopefully the court cases or arbitrations will take long enough to work their way through that we've taken delivery of most of the doses needed to get phase 1 completed by the time it concludes. We ought certainly to be OK for the first milestone target in mid-February, as there are widespread reports of the 70-74s and shielders receiving jabs in recent days 2. With luck, by the time this is all sorted out Pfizer will have got their shit together, in which case the UK Government can use its share from them to help plug any deficiencies in AZ supply if they're forced to give ground to the Commission; however... 3. If the EU both wrings concessions from AZ and goes nuts and starts slapping export bans on Pfizer, the UK Government could justifiably act in kind and keep the supply from the British AZ plants to cover its needs. Under those circumstances we'd be a bit slower getting all adults vaccinated, but that would disproportionately impact the younger, less vulnerable recipients and we ought still to be done in September, i.e. before the cold, wet weather returns, according to latest estimates
I'm therefore feeling reasonably confident that the ongoing fallout from the EU's procurement woes ought not to cause serious damage to the UK vaccination programme. Good news for all of us.
WTF. Pacifist. We should be drawing up plane to re-invade Aquitaine, and take ownership, on the grounds we can vaccinate them, unlike Paris
Well, I just want a quiet life.
Perhaps we could do a swap instead? Normandy for Scotland?
How many years' EU membership fees did it cost to get us ahead in the vaccine queue?
We should put that on a bus.
Brexit had nothing to do with it. The crucial decisions had been taken before the idea of an EU scheme even came about.
The pressure for the UK to join would have been enormous had it still been a member state. See what happened with the scheme a couple of the states tried before it was absorbed into the EU scheme.
We had already signed a deal with AstraZeneca before the scheme came about. If anything, if we had been a member it might have meant an EU-wide AstraZeneca contract could have been agreed in a timely manner and the overall production capacity would have been higher by now. The EU is worse off because of Brexit.
No, we didn't join the EU scheme because our AZ deal wasn't admissable under the terms, the EU commission told the VTF it would need to be renegotiated to remove the subsidy element and exclusive supply parts of it. It was the moment the government said thanks, but no thanks because they'd already signed it and were in talks with Novavax for a very similar deal of development and manufacturing subsidies in return for exclusive domestic supply.
That was, and still is, the main issue with the EU scheme, it didn't inceitivise manufacturers to build new capacity, it in fact tried to bargain on price which means running the EU supply chain on lesser investment to try and meet minimum ROI thresholds for new capacity. Unsurprisingly very little new capacity was built becuase it's expensive to construct new manufacturing lines and pharmaceutical companies answer to shareholders.
Ultimately what's happening now is that the EU is trying to freeride from the UK's far more generous scheme to pharma. What it should be doing is accepting that their summer timetable isn't going to be possible but working with AZ, Pfizer, J&J and Novavax and asking them what it would take to get new supply ready for June/July of this year so at least by the end of October everyone will have had it.
The EU scheme was itself a panicked reaction to Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands going it alone with AstraZeneca. Had we also been a direct part of the decision making process, I doubt it would have played out in the same way.
The issue is that once something becomes EU money (which it would have been) then you end up in interminable arguments about who gets the subsidies. Would AZ have received subsidies from the EU to get UK manufacturing up and running? Would the French not have insisted that Sanofi receive the same subsidies? Why should manufacturing be subsidised for AZ in the UK, why not in Spain or Italy? Why should Wockhart, an Indian company, receive any subsidies at all?
Unfortunately, the VTF and US operation warp speed couldn't have been replicated on an EU level because spending EU money on subsidies is a nightmare, and something the scheme tried to avoid at all costs.
Layla Moran wraps up for the opposition. Challenges the lack of scientific rigour and numeracy in much of the coverage of the crisis. Says our relative failure was due to late lockdown, and there is clear evidence that lockdowns work. Suggests consequences had we not locked down would have been catastrophic, and that health v economy is a false choice. Says the UK Gvt has nevertheless handled lockdown badly; concerns shared across the parties on the parliamentary COVID committee. Points to insufficient support for the ‘isolate’ part of the strategy. Those countries that that handled the crisis better than us now have more freedoms than us.
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
Each week since the 1st January our Asda order has been complete, including fresh fruit and vegetables, and our orders are larger than pre covid as we just do not go to the supermarket
I have not experienced any shortages, and indeed everything has been delivered from Amazon without any issues
I have no evidence that Brexit has had any effect
Waitrose in Cowbridge had many empty shelves last night. If it's definitely not Brexit, it must be further evidence of Drakeford's Covid mismanagement.
Mark Drakeford has gone from Zero to Hero.
Mark is now in second place in the Great Vaccine Race. He has overtaken first Nicola and then Arlene. He is now chasing down the Shagster.
Next step, Mark is going to commandeer the Wrecsam vaccine plant and announce no more exports to England, until all of Wales is done.
TRUCKWATCH - on the way to fathers funeral traffic on A12 / M25 / M23 examined - lots of foreign registered trucks on the roads
Entirely unsurprising.
Regardless of how tight border controls become, we're always going to be at some risk of importing Plague cases because we're too dependent on road haulage for trade (even if truckers are relatively low risk, given that they spend most of the time alone in their cabs.) An important issue to be addressed when this nightmare is finally over.
Though it won't be addressed, of course.
Each week since the 1st January our Asda order has been complete, including fresh fruit and vegetables, and our orders are larger than pre covid as we just do not go to the supermarket
I have not experienced any shortages, and indeed everything has been delivered from Amazon without any issues
I have no evidence that Brexit has had any effect
Waitrose in Cowbridge had many empty shelves last night. If it's definitely not Brexit, it must be further evidence of Drakeford's Covid mismanagement.
Mark Drakeford has gone from Zero to Hero.
Mark is now in second place in the Great Vaccine Race. He has overtaken first Nicola and then Arlene. He is now chasing down the Shagster.
Next step, Mark is going to commandeer the Wrecsam vaccine plant and announce no more exports to England, until all of Wales is done.
If we were still in the EU, but had independently spent as we actually have on the vaccines, would our former overlords be letting us get on with our paid share of the vaccinations now at home, or insisting that we pool our resources?
In the 94% of the study population that did not have HIV, the efficacy was 60%. One patient on placebo developed severe Covid-19, compared with zero in the vaccine group.
Its not 90% for cockey COVID, but it isn't total disaster stuff either.
In the 94% of the study population that did not have HIV, the efficacy was 60%. One patient on placebo developed severe Covid-19, compared with zero in the vaccine group.
Its not 90%, but it isn't total disaster stuff either.
60 MILLION doses of the Novavax Covid vaccine will be made on Teesside, it has tonight been confirmed, after the vaccine passed its UK clinical trial.
The clinical trials have shown the vaccine to be 89.3% effective in preventing coronavirus in participants, as well as efficacy against new UK variant The UK has secured 60 million doses of the vaccine, with manufacturing set to take place at Fujifilm Diosynth in Billingham, Teesside.
In the 94% of the study population that did not have HIV, the efficacy was 60%. One patient on placebo developed severe Covid-19, compared with zero in the vaccine group.
Its not 90% for cockey COVID, but it isn't total disaster stuff either.
But in a 4,400-volunteer study in South Africa, the vaccine proved only 49% effective. In the 94% of the study population that did not have HIV, the efficacy was 60%.
Toby Young wraps up for the proposers. Argues that government must always have a cast iron case before suspending our liberties, yet there has been no cost benefit analysis. Suggests the harm of lockdown is worse than the benefit. Says the current measures are unprecedented. Points to multiple studies showing that severity of lockdown makes no difference to mortality (e.g. Cali is no better off than Florida). Underlines the economic damage, and catastrophic consequences for the future, including to education and health. Advocates focused protection of the vulnerable, early border controls, effective tracing, and voluntary sensible precautions for everyone else.
That actually sounds pretty sensible, apart from the "cast iron case" bit, on which the government is damned if it does and if it doesn't. Israel did quite well for a while by focusing on protecting the vulnerable, but then discipline fell apart and cases shot through the roof.
The other important point I think is around people's appetite for following rules. In the very early stages of the pandemic last year, there was a lot of talk about delaying the start of lockdown to maximise the chances people could keep to it for the duration needed, which resulted in a lot of ridicule. In hindsight, the importance of that factor was probably seriously overlooked with respect to longer term planning.
60 MILLION doses of the Novavax Covid vaccine will be made on Teesside, it has tonight been confirmed, after the vaccine passed its UK clinical trial.
The clinical trials have shown the vaccine to be 89.3% effective in preventing coronavirus in participants, as well as efficacy against new UK variant The UK has secured 60 million doses of the vaccine, with manufacturing set to take place at Fujifilm Diosynth in Billingham, Teesside.
That's 30m additional people who can be immunised and it's UK supply as well. Hopefully the MHRA approve this rapidly and we start getting it into people's arms asap.
Comments
https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1354888778935099395
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdz6sxbSvRc
Frankly, I can now cook better grub than many high street restaurants, and do better roasts than many gastro pubs I've been do. Used to love going to eg Comptoir Libanais for a quick supper. Reckon I can now do as well myself.
Necessity is the mother of all invention.
Frankly Ive been able to buy every ingredient I want throughout January. And I live in a medium size town in Dorset....
I think you’ll find the term ‘yachting’ is much more acceptable use of language than your vulgarities.
We should put that on a bus.
The Sunday Rawnsley is bad enough, but the Cambridge Union is far worse.
Still, I have a soft spot for the building outside which -- years ago -- I flour-bombed a Tory MP. Et in Arcadia ego.
Sad to relate, the flour-bombing was destined to be the least of the Tory MP's troubles and ... she is now an ex-Tory MP.
To put this in perspective, how many doses of the AZ vaccine might in reality have been diverted to the UK from production plants in the EU? Some ball park estimates: the UK has so far administered about 8 million doses, say 5 million of which might be the AZ vaccine. Nearly all of the AZ vaccine has so far been produced in the UK, because thanks to the EU's bureaucratic inertia and incompetance the EU-based production facilities came onto the scene late and are still effectively working up. And even then they're probably benefitting from the lessons AZ learnt from the experience in getting the UK plants onstream, without which the EU-based plants would be even further behind the curve. Maybe AZ did divert their production to the UK while waiting for the EU to approve the vaccine for use, maybe they didn't. But even if they did, surely no more than 1m EU-based vaccines are presently circulating in the bodily fluids of vulnerable UK adults, and in practice the number is likely to be much less.
But the EU isn't asking for around 1m doses from UK plants to be diverted back to the EU in compensation, now that it's finally coming around to approving the vaccine for use. It's apparently demanding 75m doses from UK plants. And that difference is why the EU case is so risible and a fig leaf for its own failings.
The production from the UK is only appearing in volume at this point because the UK government acted early in backing AZ in May when the EU didn't act until at least 3 months later. Did the EU offer to underwrite the UK's financial commitment back in May in case the AZ vaccine turned out the same as the French one? No, but they act as if they did. If they want more than the ball park 1m from UK plants, they can go whistle as far as I'm concerned.
I examined some of the product lines - UK produce
I spoke to an employee who laughed at the idea it was Brexit and said it was down to staff absences due to Covid, actual or because of isolation
One member of staff there is now on their 3rd absence in the last couple of months - 1 actual case of infection 2 others of being on same shift as someone infected and track and trace saying has to isolate - in the latest he was only back 2 days after actual infection and is now off again
The situation has allegedly led to management asking employees to turn off track and trace.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stL8eSyieSU&feature=youtu.be
Haven't viewed this evening, but it is an interview with Callum Douglas on German fighter engines.
Boris, Sturgeon, Macron, Macron, German Land PM x2.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1354891759977979905
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1354891667590012931
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1354891551663661058
https://twitter.com/themaxburns/status/1354873559663960066?s=19
They are not closing margin accounts. These are just regular long positions being closed out
https://twitter.com/themaxburns/status/1354875496153165827?s=19
The alternative is literally starting again from scratch and another 6 months in lockdown while we wait for vaccines to be updated and tested. I'd rather deal with not being able to get salami for 6 weeks than have to add 6 months of miserable lockdown.
Of course that means the product is you.
And so Robinhood is protecting their actual customers.
https://yro.slashdot.org/story/21/01/28/1758223/robinhood-hit-with-class-action-after-blocking-gamestop-trades
Liverpool have scored.
I am curious. Where do you draw the line? At what point do your fellow Brits get priority?
It simply reflects a difference of approach. The Germans are being very cautious, presumably waiting to get in use data from us and determine whether AZ approaches the efficacy of Pfizer in the old before committing to its use. The UK regulator has basically decided that it's more important to get as many jabs into as many arms to protect as many people as possible, and not fuss over whether it's very effective, or merely fairly effective, in individual patients.
If the Germans end up using the mRNA vaccines for all their olds, even if this takes considerably longer to achieve, then that's their choice. Perhaps they think that this approach will save more lives in the long run, because fewer recipients will suffer symptomatic infection (although if AZ prevents hospitalisation in use as well as it did in the trial stages then that shouldn't be a problem,) or perhaps they feel less of a sense of urgency because their pandemic hasn't been quite as bad as ours? I don't know. You can make a constructive case for both the UK and the German policies, I suppose.
"The government will spend up to £11.7bn ($15.8bn) on securing vaccines for the UK and rolling them out in England, as well as potentially covering drugmakers’ costs if they face legal action."
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-government-vaccine-rollout-liability-costs-085553962.html
..it's about a year's fees.
Which rather puts things in perspective for me. The EU is struggling to match the spend of its leaving member, even though we've only spent one year of our former annual fee to them.
WTF are they playing at?
Rather than blocking our exports to them that feed into the vaccine manufacturing process, could we just introduce tariffs on vaccine-related exports to them? By say, 10,000%?
The EU would surely have to pay any price in such a scenario, given it commenced the escalation and needs the vaccines? It would avoid us interrupting vaccine manufacturing that does ultimately save lives in Europe and beyond, while still sending a clear message to the EU and encouraging them to come to the table.
The 10,000% can of course be scaled up with time if needed...
But as I said earlier - so what? They have no vaccine anyway. Angels on pinheads.
The Germans have every right to decide for themselves, as we do.
I'm happy with our Government's decision but if the Germans think differently, that's their business.
https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/mit-diesem-spahn-brief-begann-das-impfstoff-desaster-bei-der-eu-74734176.bild.html
It is THE central document in the vaccine disaster!
A letter that shows how Health Minister Jens Spahn (40, CDU) and his counterparts from France, Italy and the Netherlands ceded procurement of the life-saving vaccine to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (62) and in a humble tone apologized for their efforts on vaccine procurement. The letter is exclusively available to BILD.
According to BILD information, it was important to both Chancellor Angela Merkel (66, CDU) and von der Leyen that the letter from Spahn and his colleagues was written in the most obsequious tone possible.
That was, and still is, the main issue with the EU scheme, it didn't inceitivise manufacturers to build new capacity, it in fact tried to bargain on price which means running the EU supply chain on lesser investment to try and meet minimum ROI thresholds for new capacity. Unsurprisingly very little new capacity was built becuase it's expensive to construct new manufacturing lines and pharmaceutical companies answer to shareholders.
Ultimately what's happening now is that the EU is trying to freeride from the UK's far more generous scheme to pharma. What it should be doing is accepting that their summer timetable isn't going to be possible but working with AZ, Pfizer, J&J and Novavax and asking them what it would take to get new supply ready for June/July of this year so at least by the end of October everyone will have had it.
One of the people they spoke to was an elderly English gent who was in transit back to England from Portugal. Coming home for medical treatment he said.
Perhaps we could do a swap instead? Normandy for Scotland?
Surely a RUSSIAN knocking-shop would be more appropriate.
We were right to Leave. It will be painful, and cost us, especially in London. But anti-democracy and technocratic ineptitude is in the EU's DNA. The Project is all, and becomes self-justifying, as it recruits more members, who rely on it for income or status, like Catholiclism in the medieval clerisy.
I predict that one day you will become a Leaver. You are too smart not to.
Mark is now in second place in the Great Vaccine Race. He has overtaken first Nicola and then Arlene. He is now chasing down the Shagster.
Next step, Mark is going to commandeer the Wrecsam vaccine plant and announce no more exports to England, until all of Wales is done.
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/1354806710385266689?s=21
Most Leavers (I think) are happy to agree that the EU is worse off because of Brexit. The question was whether we're (overall) better off out or in.
Unfortunately, the VTF and US operation warp speed couldn't have been replicated on an EU level because spending EU money on subsidies is a nightmare, and something the scheme tried to avoid at all costs.
Drakeford is as inept as ever
Bloody saffers.......
✔️ 89% efficiency
✔️ Tested on super kent covid
✔️ Teeside manufacture
✔️ 60 million doses on order
Its not 90% for cockey COVID, but it isn't total disaster stuff either.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19047646.teesside-make-60-million-doses-novavax-covid-vaccine-passes-uk-trial/
60 MILLION doses of the Novavax Covid vaccine will be made on Teesside, it has tonight been confirmed, after the vaccine passed its UK clinical trial.
The clinical trials have shown the vaccine to be 89.3% effective in preventing coronavirus in participants, as well as efficacy against new UK variant The UK has secured 60 million doses of the vaccine, with manufacturing set to take place at Fujifilm Diosynth in Billingham, Teesside.
Government of the United Kingdom (UK) for the purchase of 60 million doses of NVX-CoV2373, Novavax’ COVID-19 vaccine - Aug 14, 2020
https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-and-uk-government-announce-collaboration-and-purchase
This is finally happening.
The other important point I think is around people's appetite for following rules. In the very early stages of the pandemic last year, there was a lot of talk about delaying the start of lockdown to maximise the chances people could keep to it for the duration needed, which resulted in a lot of ridicule. In hindsight, the importance of that factor was probably seriously overlooked with respect to longer term planning.