Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

McConnell’s impeachment move means Trump looks set to serve a full term and there’ll be no President

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 14 in General
imageMcConnell’s impeachment move means Trump looks set to serve a full term and there’ll be no President Pence – politicalbetting.com

The Smarkets Exchange trend chart above reflects the end of the Trump era and the little betting spurt that he might be forced out early. This has effectively come to an end following the overnight events in Washington DC where the House has voted to impeach Trump again but Mitch McConnell has stated that there’ll be no pre-January 20th move for the Senate to come to its decision.

Read the full story here

«13456710

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,679
    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,034
    edited January 14
    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,497
    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,609
    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    I wouldn't think Biden will want to hurry it, but it's in the hands of McConnell, unless the House delays handfing over the impeachment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,679

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,034
    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

  • DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    Covid is largely down to the states, is it not? In sheer numbers of people vaccinated, America is already ahead of this country. President Biden can appoint someone, implore people to wear masks and still be home in time for tea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,357
    Over-50s fuel surge in late summer holiday bookings after being vaccinated against Covid

    Telegraph

  • eekeek Posts: 11,034
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

    The incentive remains obvious. They have 80bn incentives a year and every one of them a £1.00. Do they really want their exports subject to this sort of nonsense? Do they really want it to be easier for a UK importer to import Australian wine rather than French? Of course not. It will be toned down with trusted trader schemes and other steps to remove the problem over time as the heat goes out of this. Its inevitable.
    But to ensure we receive our goods we aren't caring about the paperwork - heck at times we've been explicit that we will ignore it to ensure the imports keep arriving.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,679

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    I wouldn't think Biden will want to hurry it, but it's in the hands of McConnell, unless the House delays handfing over the impeachment.
    McConnell has control at the moment but control of the Senate will switch on the 20th when VP Harris is appointed and he will not be able to control the timetable the same way after that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,357
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
    Can they just vote for him to be barred from office?

    That would do to remove him as a threat to democracy.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,034
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,782
    eek said:

    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.

    You will also know whether the Trumpster base have delivered on threats to disrupt the Inauguration at various state Capitols - which will add to the charge sheet and frankly, make it much easier for Republicans to throw him under the bus. Hence yesterday, you had Trump saying to anyone who still listens "don't".
  • That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...
  • Betfair Trump to leave before end of term (inauguration is six days away):
    Yes 22
    No 1.04

    Free money Trump to leave in 2021 is 1.01 but beware the opportunity cost of tying your stake up. There is more than a million pounds to be staked and it will be interesting to see when the big hitters mop it up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 35,679

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
    Can they just vote for him to be barred from office?

    That would do to remove him as a threat to democracy.
    I think that they will be looking for a compromise. It was interesting watching the debate last night. There was a lot of genuine anger that Trump had let loose the mob on them and made sure that they were not adequately protected but there was also a lot of posturing. A bipartisan censorship motion was there for the taking but Pelosi wasn't taking that. I am not sure Biden will feel the same way.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,999
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 62,950
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
    It's difficult, as his actions require punishment and quickly as the longer this goes on the less likely conviction becomes, yet as you say there are key things that need doing very fast.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,034

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
    Can they just vote for him to be barred from office?

    That would do to remove him as a threat to democracy.
    I don't think that's an option - it's a 2 step process

    1) proof he isn't fit for office - by finding him guilty
    2) then bar him from standing again

    Otherwise you are barring someone for no reason (yes there are reasons but you haven't backed them up).
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited January 14
    Good morning everyone.

    I think this is tricky for both parties. I side with Biden in that this is an unwanted distraction and, to be honest, in a week's time Trump will already be yesterday's man.

    It would have suited the Republicans more to have a swift kill. Now they are stuck with an albatross around their necks and I think they will tear themselves apart.

    As I mentioned yesterday, they will not have sight of the White House for 8 years and the earliest they will regain electoral traction will be the 2026 midterms.

    This will be like Labour in the 1980's, only worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,357

    eek said:

    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.

    You will also know whether the Trumpster base have delivered on threats to disrupt the Inauguration at various state Capitols - which will add to the charge sheet and frankly, make it much easier for Republicans to throw him under the bus. Hence yesterday, you had Trump saying to anyone who still listens "don't".
    I am now so cynical where Trump is concerned that I read his message as a coded plea for his people to engage in violence, not hold back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 62,950
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
    Can they just vote for him to be barred from office?

    That would do to remove him as a threat to democracy.
    I think that they will be looking for a compromise. It was interesting watching the debate last night. There was a lot of genuine anger that Trump had let loose the mob on them and made sure that they were not adequately protected but there was also a lot of posturing. A bipartisan censorship motion was there for the taking but Pelosi wasn't taking that. I am not sure Biden will feel the same way.
    Censure is meaningless in this country as a standards control measure and would be meaningless in this situation. Trump's supporters would see it as vindication as no conviction and the swamp criticising him.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 113
    edited January 14
    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    Precisely
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,782
    Very mild out this morning, with plenty of birdsong.

    Make the most of it, lads...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 62,950

    eek said:

    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.

    You will also know whether the Trumpster base have delivered on threats to disrupt the Inauguration at various state Capitols - which will add to the charge sheet and frankly, make it much easier for Republicans to throw him under the bus. Hence yesterday, you had Trump saying to anyone who still listens "don't".
    He certainly got serious for the first time ever. I dont think he talked about himself once.

    He can say the right things. Hes just chosen not to until forced.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,999

    Very mild out this morning, with plenty of birdsong.

    Make the most of it, lads...

    P***ing down with rain here so not for me this morning at least.

    What should we be looking out for, tho?
  • Very mild out this morning, with plenty of birdsong.

    Make the most of it, lads...

    Snowing here.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 39
    Biden's appointments may be delayed but at least they'll be appointed. Prior to Georgia, most people thought that was in the hands of Mitch.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,455
    In cricket news, Sri Lanka all out for 135. Galle looks beautiful, as usual.
  • DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

    The incentive remains obvious. They have 80bn incentives a year and every one of them a £1.00. Do they really want their exports subject to this sort of nonsense? Do they really want it to be easier for a UK importer to import Australian wine rather than French? Of course not. It will be toned down with trusted trader schemes and other steps to remove the problem over time as the heat goes out of this. Its inevitable.
    The longer the EU let this fester, the more obvious it becomes they are really not a trading organisation, but a political one, that will throw its traders to the wolves. One we were right to leave.
    The EU's traders are fine - we've explicitly stated that we'll be skipping checks on imports. It's our traders who are fucked.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,820
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
    Is the government actively malign, or just stupid and incompetent? It's hard to tell. I would go for a bit of both.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 4,820

    In cricket news, Sri Lanka all out for 135. Galle looks beautiful, as usual.

    Galle is an absolutely beautiful town. Come on Sri Lanka, you can do better than this!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,349
    edited January 14
    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Its tricky, but unless the gov were prepared to generate a list of all the 50 million plus in exact age order and jab accordingly, there were always going to be issues like this. Anecdotally, some areas will have been more proactive, notably with the Pfizer jab, and will thus be 'ahead'. Other areas may not have deemed it possible to use the Pfizer jab owing to the issues entailed, and will only now be getting going. The country is incredibly diverse in population density, age distribution etc. Its also bloody complex. My mother in law reported that a nurse turned up to her next door neighbour with her jab (the neighbour is housebound), but what the nurse wasn't aware of was the neighbour is currently in hospital... (rehab after pneumonia).
    I would advise patience. If we have nationally vaccinated half of the over 80's, then half of them won't have been done, and quite a few will have heard nothing yet. It will come.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456
    edited January 14
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
    Democrats control the scheduling, though.
    McConnell’s ability to be his usual obstructionist self isn’t what it has been.

    As for “healing”, this is the response they merit:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/why-are-republicans-being-so-divisive/617648/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,357
    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 38,891
    edited January 14

    That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 62,950

    eek said:

    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.

    You will also know whether the Trumpster base have delivered on threats to disrupt the Inauguration at various state Capitols - which will add to the charge sheet and frankly, make it much easier for Republicans to throw him under the bus. Hence yesterday, you had Trump saying to anyone who still listens "don't".
    I am now so cynical where Trump is concerned that I read his message as a coded plea for his people to engage in violence, not hold back.
    Nah, it was a message to McConnell.

    McConnell leaked he was considering supporting conviction, Trump releases calm message talking about values unity and condemning violence, senators like Graham say this shows conviction is vindictive. McConnell will probably follow, as his leak prompted the right response.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 317

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
    Is the government actively malign, or just stupid and incompetent? It's hard to tell. I would go for a bit of both.
    It's not a "bit" of both. It's LOADS of both.

    The question is, of course, whether they're SO stupid, incompetent and malign we'll never know, when we rejoin the Single Market, whether we really have rejoined or they're just lying about it.
  • In cricket news, Sri Lanka all out for 135. Galle looks beautiful, as usual.

    Galle is an absolutely beautiful town. Come on Sri Lanka, you can do better than this!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,477

    In cricket news, Sri Lanka all out for 135. Galle looks beautiful, as usual.

    Galle is an absolutely beautiful town. Come on Sri Lanka, you can do better than this!
    They certainly should. Some of the dismissals were shockingly bad, others were shockingly bad luck id est caught off Bairstow's ankle/boot and fingertip run out off Leach
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,782
    Maybe Biden will be very fortunate, in that one event has effectively taken down America's loudest, dumbest whack-jobs - either in jail, off the TV/radio, on the run or keeping their heads down and their social media on silent running. With their figurehead emasculated in 7, 6, 5......

    He comes to power with - from the Democrat perspective - the swamp ready-drained.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,881
    Philip_Thompson said on a previous thread:

    "Sorry but that is the same BS logic that the Republican diehard Senators backing Trump saying that because people believe that there was fraud it needs to be investigated further.
    Plant a story for partisan reasons despite knowing it to be nonsense.
    Spread the story far and wide for partisan reasons getting people who want to believe it to share it further..
    Amplify the story you planted as much as possible.
    Then claim that because people are talking about the story, it really is a story, so needs to be investigated further.
    Fools may swallow this nonsense, doesn't make it a genuine story it just makes it a conspiracy theory rubbish that should be repelled by anyone sensible who can comprehend the facts."


    @Philip_Thompson said the above yesterday in reply to one of my posts. Firstly let me make clear that I agree 100% with what Philip posted. In fact I strongly agree with it.

    However as an analogy it was flawed because the media should be reporting this stuff about Trump's supporters and what they are up to and the arguments they are putting no matter how irrational and mendacious (Philip is confusing the media with the dishonest people asking for an investigation in his analogy). We have to do our best to expose it as such. I assume Philip was not calling for press censorship even though Trump's supporters were making up evidence, convincing people it was real and then calling for an investigation (classic conspiracy stuff).

    The reason it is a poor analogy is that in fact the Trump story 100% should be reported whereas the Boris story really had very little merit and comes into the classic 'non-story' category of 'dog bites man' which the media whips up it to something greater. So it wasn't a good analogy of why Boris's story wasn't a story. However because the media has been full of 'what are the rules' stories and are going after anyone in power who transgresses then it should not come as a surprise that the media made it a story and boy did they drone on about it.

    I am not going to defend the media for doing this, but it is what I expect them to do. Boris should also have expected that.
  • eek said:

    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.

    You will also know whether the Trumpster base have delivered on threats to disrupt the Inauguration at various state Capitols - which will add to the charge sheet and frankly, make it much easier for Republicans to throw him under the bus. Hence yesterday, you had Trump saying to anyone who still listens "don't".
    I am now so cynical where Trump is concerned that I read his message as a coded plea for his people to engage in violence, not hold back.
    That Trump announced that he wasn't going to Biden's inauguration is a red flag for me, telling his supporters I'm not going to be there so do your worse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 29,998
    The 50:50 Senate is going to be a nightmare for Biden, with even a single absence enough to derail the day’s business.

    He needs to decide what he wants to do with his first few weeks in office, and whether ‘dealing’ with Trump is more important than getting his Cabinet appointed and approved.

    I think he might leave Trump to fester for a few months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456
    .
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This was always inevitable. Whether Biden really wants to address the implied threat that a trial would delay the appointment of his cabinet is the real question now.

    Biden's first priority surely will be COVID and taking effective measures to try curtail it in the US
    I agree. And the threat is that if the Senate is tied into a trial for a month or more with all the Senators in the jury box there will be no appointments made which will allow Biden to get on with that. He can do a certain amount with acting officials but he will want the key people for Covid in particular confirmed as fast as possible.

    I can honestly see a situation where he is going to ask Congress to dump the impeachment as a "healing" process of bringing America together again, especially if Trump looks ever more pathetic once the apparels of office are removed.
    Can they just vote for him to be barred from office?

    That would do to remove him as a threat to democracy.
    I think that they will be looking for a compromise. It was interesting watching the debate last night. There was a lot of genuine anger that Trump had let loose the mob on them and made sure that they were not adequately protected but there was also a lot of posturing. A bipartisan censorship motion was there for the taking but Pelosi wasn't taking that. I am not sure Biden will feel the same way.
    Censure is meaningless in this country as a standards control measure and would be meaningless in this situation. Trump's supporters would see it as vindication as no conviction and the swamp criticising him.
    Yes, the suggestion of a censure was a joke.
    Put forward by the same House Republicans who voted not to recognise the election votes.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 39

    That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    I don't see any way that Biden has of bringing them on board. They believe Biden isn't their rightful president. Trump broke a fragile country apart. It will take a political generation to heal. The GOP will become increasingly right wing, until they are out of power so long, they need to tack back towards the centre. It's happened to both Tories and Labour here, and Trump only got in as the Democrats pushed for an unpopular leader.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,477

    In cricket news, Sri Lanka all out for 135. Galle looks beautiful, as usual.

    Galle is an absolutely beautiful town. Come on Sri Lanka, you can do better than this!
    David Lloyd is substituting...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,782

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    Yet Berks and Bucks not getting it doesn't sustain that notion.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,613

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    A lot of it depends on how proactice surgeries are. In Southampton some surgeries have got through their 80+ people and are now moving on to their 75+ . Others have barely done any.
  • That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    Yeah. It looked like a hostage video. If you are batshit crazy and have an AR-15 for protection, might you not see the video and think you *really really* need to go to Washington to rescue the President?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,999

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
    Is the government actively malign, or just stupid and incompetent? It's hard to tell. I would go for a bit of both.
    They were told to Brexit. They had very few options. That some of them actually wanted to do so too is unforgiveable but what can you do (not vote for them, obvs).
  • Starry said:

    That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    I don't see any way that Biden has of bringing them on board. They believe Biden isn't their rightful president. Trump broke a fragile country apart. It will take a political generation to heal. The GOP will become increasingly right wing, until they are out of power so long, they need to tack back towards the centre. It's happened to both Tories and Labour here, and Trump only got in as the Democrats pushed for an unpopular leader.
    I am certain Biden cannot bring these extremists on board, but continuing fighting Trump after 20th in my opinion is self defeating

    Make sure he cannot go anywhere near office and move on

    The US has a mountain of healing to do following the disaster that is Trump
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

    The incentive remains obvious. They have 80bn incentives a year and every one of them a £1.00. Do they really want their exports subject to this sort of nonsense? Do they really want it to be easier for a UK importer to import Australian wine rather than French? Of course not. It will be toned down with trusted trader schemes and other steps to remove the problem over time as the heat goes out of this. Its inevitable.
    The longer the EU let this fester, the more obvious it becomes they are really not a trading organisation, but a political one, that will throw its traders to the wolves. One we were right to leave.
    On that basis, how should we treat our own government, which is throwing its traders to the wolves ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-55593308
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,455

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    Purely anecdotally the North-West and London have done better than East Anglia, However, I’ve got now an appointment for Saturday, so it’s obviously being rolled out locally.
    Told to turn up with a short sleeve shirt so I don’t have to waste time uncovering top of my arm.
  • That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    Yeah. It looked like a hostage video. If you are batshit crazy and have an AR-15 for protection, might you not see the video and think you *really really* need to go to Washington to rescue the President?
    I really hope not but it is a fair point
  • eekeek Posts: 11,034

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    A lot of it depends on how proactice surgeries are. In Southampton some surgeries have got through their 80+ people and are now moving on to their 75+ . Others have barely done any.
    Currently I think it's logistics that are the issue as Pfizer has complex requirements.

    From memory Southampton University Hospital is a hub so moving that vaccine around Southampton is so much easier than say South Cumbria where the nearest hub is Carlisle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 39,357

    Starry said:

    That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    I don't see any way that Biden has of bringing them on board. They believe Biden isn't their rightful president. Trump broke a fragile country apart. It will take a political generation to heal. The GOP will become increasingly right wing, until they are out of power so long, they need to tack back towards the centre. It's happened to both Tories and Labour here, and Trump only got in as the Democrats pushed for an unpopular leader.
    I am certain Biden cannot bring these extremists on board, but continuing fighting Trump after 20th in my opinion is self defeating

    Make sure he cannot go anywhere near office and move on

    The US has a mountain of healing to do following the disaster that is Trump
    Making sure he can't run again is the most important I agree.

    Obviously the base of whackos may attached itself to Ivanka or some other family member but it wont have same traction I am hoping.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
    Is the government actively malign, or just stupid and incompetent? It's hard to tell. I would go for a bit of both.
    They were told to Brexit. They had very few options. That some of them actually wanted to do so too is unforgiveable but what can you do (not vote for them, obvs).
    And yet Boris still polls around 40% and Labour are not going anywhere at present
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456
    .

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

    The incentive remains obvious. They have 80bn incentives a year and every one of them a £1.00. Do they really want their exports subject to this sort of nonsense? Do they really want it to be easier for a UK importer to import Australian wine rather than French? Of course not. It will be toned down with trusted trader schemes and other steps to remove the problem over time as the heat goes out of this. Its inevitable.
    The longer the EU let this fester, the more obvious it becomes they are really not a trading organisation, but a political one, that will throw its traders to the wolves. One we were right to leave.
    The EU's traders are fine - we've explicitly stated that we'll be skipping checks on imports. It's our traders who are fucked.
    Not entirely.
    EU small businesses exporting to the UK are impacted in a similar way to UK small businesses exporting to the EU

    EU firms refuse UK deliveries over Brexit tax changes
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55530721
    ...The moves follow changes in VAT rules brought in by HM Revenue and Customs on 1 January.
    VAT is now being collected at the point of sale rather than at the point of importation.
    This essentially means that overseas retailers sending goods to the UK are expected to register for UK VAT and account for it to HMRC if the sale value is less than €150 (£135)...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,989
    It was raining a fair bit when I took the dog out at 6am. Had about an inch of snow since.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 11,949

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Its tricky, but unless the gov were prepared to generate a list of all the 50 million plus in exact age order and jab accordingly, there were always going to be issues like this. Anecdotally, some areas will have been more proactive, notably with the Pfizer jab, and will thus be 'ahead'. Other areas may not have deemed it possible to use the Pfizer jab owing to the issues entailed, and will only now be getting going. The country is incredibly diverse in population density, age distribution etc. Its also bloody complex. My mother in law reported that a nurse turned up to her next door neighbour with her jab (the neighbour is housebound), but what the nurse wasn't aware of was the neighbour is currently in hospital... (rehab after pneumonia).
    I would advise patience. If we have nationally vaccinated half of the over 80's, then half of them won't have been done, and quite a few will have heard nothing yet. It will come.
    I believe it was reported that supplies have been targeted away from some areas that were "ahead" to allow for catchup.

    Yes, some people have been very "self-starting" on this. While others have taken the approach of "It's a bit tricky. What I need to do is complain until someone comes to do it for me".

    I believe that GPs are getting £40+ a head for vaccinating the over 80s - up to the 17th Jan, I read.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 5,930
    Nigelb said:

    .

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

    The incentive remains obvious. They have 80bn incentives a year and every one of them a £1.00. Do they really want their exports subject to this sort of nonsense? Do they really want it to be easier for a UK importer to import Australian wine rather than French? Of course not. It will be toned down with trusted trader schemes and other steps to remove the problem over time as the heat goes out of this. Its inevitable.
    The longer the EU let this fester, the more obvious it becomes they are really not a trading organisation, but a political one, that will throw its traders to the wolves. One we were right to leave.
    The EU's traders are fine - we've explicitly stated that we'll be skipping checks on imports. It's our traders who are fucked.
    Not entirely.
    EU small businesses exporting to the UK are impacted in a similar way to UK small businesses exporting to the EU

    EU firms refuse UK deliveries over Brexit tax changes
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55530721
    ...The moves follow changes in VAT rules brought in by HM Revenue and Customs on 1 January.
    VAT is now being collected at the point of sale rather than at the point of importation.
    This essentially means that overseas retailers sending goods to the UK are expected to register for UK VAT and account for it to HMRC if the sale value is less than €150 (£135)...
    A change in the VAT regime to catch 100s of millions of fraud is not a Brexit tax...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,420

    That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    But it isn't just vengeance, it is justice that should be sought. The man incited an attempted coup. A coup attempt which left five people dead.

    What is wrong with you people who are suggesting he walks free, in the interests of "peace". to continue as a shadow President, a President in waiting who can spew his seditious propaganda to the angry and disenchanted?

    Donald Trump makes the angry, angrier. The louder his voice, the greater the division.

    Lock him up to shut him up!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 29,456

    Starry said:

    That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    I don't see any way that Biden has of bringing them on board. They believe Biden isn't their rightful president. Trump broke a fragile country apart. It will take a political generation to heal. The GOP will become increasingly right wing, until they are out of power so long, they need to tack back towards the centre. It's happened to both Tories and Labour here, and Trump only got in as the Democrats pushed for an unpopular leader.
    I am certain Biden cannot bring these extremists on board, but continuing fighting Trump after 20th in my opinion is self defeating

    Make sure he cannot go anywhere near office and move on...

    Which is exactly why he needs to be impeached.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,506
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.

    You will also know whether the Trumpster base have delivered on threats to disrupt the Inauguration at various state Capitols - which will add to the charge sheet and frankly, make it much easier for Republicans to throw him under the bus. Hence yesterday, you had Trump saying to anyone who still listens "don't".
    I am now so cynical where Trump is concerned that I read his message as a coded plea for his people to engage in violence, not hold back.
    Nah, it was a message to McConnell.

    McConnell leaked he was considering supporting conviction, Trump releases calm message talking about values unity and condemning violence, senators like Graham say this shows conviction is vindictive. McConnell will probably follow, as his leak prompted the right response.
    You misunderstand McConnell's motives. He clearly hates Trump and wants to do as much as he can to marginalise him in future within the Republican Party. Moreover, he has absolutely nothing to lose, with a 6 year term that will take him to the age where he would surely retire. His lead will provide cover to other Republican senators who have similar feelings but need to mind their backs. The bar for them is lower than it was for the House Republicans, who were technically voting on a procedure to remove Trump from office, whereas in the Senate it will essentially be a deferred vote to reprimand Trump, stop him ever coming back and expose him further to legal jeopardy.

    Paradoxically, for those House Republicans who resorted to arguing that a vote against impeachment was a vote for reconciliation, and notably did not defend Trump's conduct, Trump's video yesterday blows that out of the water. Trump would never have resorted to issuing a video that renounced everything he had called for a week earlier if he was not intensely worried about where impeachment may lead. If impeachment had been rejected, we would just have got more of the same. Bullies never back down unless you stand up to them.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,881

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
    Is the government actively malign, or just stupid and incompetent? It's hard to tell. I would go for a bit of both.
    They were told to Brexit. They had very few options. That some of them actually wanted to do so too is unforgiveable but what can you do (not vote for them, obvs).
    And yet Boris still polls around 40% and Labour are not going anywhere at present
    That is a result of our stale political system of 2 party politics.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 917
    edited January 14

    Very mild out this morning, with plenty of birdsong.

    Make the most of it, lads...

    Snowing heavily here. Not helping everyone get to their vaccine appointment! I hope there aren't any falls, although the NHS staff delivering the vaccine didn't help by taking up all the car parking slots nearest to the door.

    Oxford vaccine this week (were using Pfizer last week). Much quicker, no need for the 15 minute wait. I reckon they'll do twice as many without the seating bottleneck.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,698
    ‘Settled will of the Scottish people’


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,271
    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Well we could always vaccinate at the rate of the slowest area.

    That will make things nice and fair but result in lockdown until Christmas and tens of thousands of extra deaths.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,613
    eek said:

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    A lot of it depends on how proactice surgeries are. In Southampton some surgeries have got through their 80+ people and are now moving on to their 75+ . Others have barely done any.
    Currently I think it's logistics that are the issue as Pfizer has complex requirements.

    From memory Southampton University Hospital is a hub so moving that vaccine around Southampton is so much easier than say South Cumbria where the nearest hub is Carlisle.
    The difference between neighbouring surgeries in Southampton is remarkable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 46,538
    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    I have a Group 4 (Clinically extremely vulnerable) friend being vaccinated in South London today. I agree we should try nationally to do 1-4 completely before moving further down. Interesting approach in Scotland - prioritising Health Workers (which is within the "blended Group 1 & 2" guidance) ahead of over 80s.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 9,335
    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    My father has just been contacted about having the vaccination on Saturday morning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,118
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

    The incentive remains obvious. They have 80bn incentives a year and every one of them a £1.00. Do they really want their exports subject to this sort of nonsense? Do they really want it to be easier for a UK importer to import Australian wine rather than French? Of course not. It will be toned down with trusted trader schemes and other steps to remove the problem over time as the heat goes out of this. Its inevitable.
    There's politics all over this.

    In the same way as there's a common travel area for the British Isles, it seems logical to me that there should be a common sanitary and phytosanitary area too - i.e. free movement of plants and animals, as well as people - with common LPF standards to protect human, animal or plant health; measures agreed bilaterally between Eire and the UK. We all buy British and Irish beef, for example. This is logical as the British Isles are an integrated ecosystem removed from the European mainland, and it's rather unlikely that food products going from Ireland to GB supermarkets and from GB to NI supermarkets are "at risk" of entering the broader continental single market, as 99%+ of them will be bought and consumed locally, unless someone from Ireland tries to sneak in a ham sandwich. This could be subject to review in future if the UK wanted to change its standards or do a very open FTA with the USA - for example, admitting agricultural products of a different standard - but otherwise remain extant.

    But, the remorseless logic is that because Eire is an EU member state they mustn't make any adjustment for Brexit whatsoever due to the UK's decision, nor suffer any SPS checks of their own produce when exporting to other EU member states, therefore the border must be down the Irish Sea between GB and Ireland.

    I understand that perspective but I think this misjudges several things, not least of which the economic and political reality. Firstly, Eire already does - it hasn't joined Schengen because that would threaten the CTA, so is following the UK there despite the fact it would otherwise join. Secondly, Eire and NI already have island of Ireland alignment on a number of things, and joint governance, even pre-Brexit. Thirdly, most of Eire's exports on meat and dairy do go to the UK, and it's just made life much more difficult for itself there and, finally, as far as the peace process is concerned it would be far easier to sell to both sides if the nationalists knew there was a NI/GB border for manufactured goods, and similar products genuinely at risk of sneaking into the broader EU single market, but also to unionists with a common British Isles SPS area as well, so the solution was politically equitable and reflected economic reality.

    We haven't heard the end of the NI story yet. It's a very difficult and unique situation and neither the EU, UK or Eire have been creative enough in finding solutions to make it work for a province that in all other areas (including even citizenship) is the biggest fudge of fudges on the planet within a much broader British Isles grey area - by design.

    It needs designing some more.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 26,999

    eek said:

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    A lot of it depends on how proactice surgeries are. In Southampton some surgeries have got through their 80+ people and are now moving on to their 75+ . Others have barely done any.
    Currently I think it's logistics that are the issue as Pfizer has complex requirements.

    From memory Southampton University Hospital is a hub so moving that vaccine around Southampton is so much easier than say South Cumbria where the nearest hub is Carlisle.
    The difference between neighbouring surgeries in Southampton is remarkable.
    As with so much with the NHS. You need pointy elbows and to shout loudly to get just about anything done.

    I would bet those surgeries with the vaccine were pro-active; those without were/are still waiting to be contacted.
  • Andy_JS said:

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    My father has just been contacted about having the vaccination on Saturday morning.
    My missus should be having her Pfizer shot at work even as we speak. She works for the NHS, but in the labs, not in a public facing role. She's early 50s and healthy, so you'd think that others should be in front of her, but I suppose they're trying to keep the NHS as a whole functioning.
  • AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    Purely anecdotally the North-West and London have done better than East Anglia, However, I’ve got now an appointment for Saturday, so it’s obviously being rolled out locally.
    Told to turn up with a short sleeve shirt so I don’t have to waste time uncovering top of my arm.
    Excellent OKC - am hoping my 81 year old wife has hers soon but this is Drakeford's Wales!!!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 11,949

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    Second - taking my time like McConnell is.

    And being honest given the time available it makes sense to delay things until after the 20th - then you have as long as necessary to do things and can slowly damage Trump's reputation further by releasing things bit by bit.

    You will also know whether the Trumpster base have delivered on threats to disrupt the Inauguration at various state Capitols - which will add to the charge sheet and frankly, make it much easier for Republicans to throw him under the bus. Hence yesterday, you had Trump saying to anyone who still listens "don't".
    I am now so cynical where Trump is concerned that I read his message as a coded plea for his people to engage in violence, not hold back.
    Nah, it was a message to McConnell.

    McConnell leaked he was considering supporting conviction, Trump releases calm message talking about values unity and condemning violence, senators like Graham say this shows conviction is vindictive. McConnell will probably follow, as his leak prompted the right response.
    You misunderstand McConnell's motives. He clearly hates Trump and wants to do as much as he can to marginalise him in future within the Republican Party. Moreover, he has absolutely nothing to lose, with a 6 year term that will take him to the age where he would surely retire. His lead will provide cover to other Republican senators who have similar feelings but need to mind their backs. The bar for them is lower than it was for the House Republicans, who were technically voting on a procedure to remove Trump from office, whereas in the Senate it will essentially be a deferred vote to reprimand Trump, stop him ever coming back and expose him further to legal jeopardy.

    Paradoxically, for those House Republicans who resorted to arguing that a vote against impeachment was a vote for reconciliation, and notably did not defend Trump's conduct, Trump's video yesterday blows that out of the water. Trump would never have resorted to issuing a video that renounced everything he had called for a week earlier if he was not intensely worried about where impeachment may lead. If impeachment had been rejected, we would just have got more of the same. Bullies never back down unless you stand up to them.
    The advantage now, for the Republicans of impeachment, is that it would end with Trump barred from public office.

    Otherwise, to keep the cult going, he would almost certainly start a third party. If nothing else, this would allow him to keep "campaigning" aka bilking his followers for money.

    Which would split the right vote enough in the US to give the Democrats the House, Senate & Presidency by a serious margin - the Dems might well end up with 2/3rds of the Senate.

    Mind you, Trump being Trump, be might try and run anyway. Complete with demanding his name on the ballot, being denied, getting his followers to write his name on the ballot etc etc...
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 113

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Well we could always vaccinate at the rate of the slowest area.

    That will make things nice and fair but result in lockdown until Christmas and tens of thousands of extra deaths.
    Ideally the system needs to join up more so that those that are ahead can help those that are behind. I don't think we will be capable of that unfortunately.

    I am flagging that this could become a headline worthy event if some locations are vaccinating the under 70s whilst others are still working on the over 80s.

    I am fairly patient about it and understand why there may be regional differences. I am not sure all the newspapers will handle it in such a measured way.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,420

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
    Is the government actively malign, or just stupid and incompetent? It's hard to tell. I would go for a bit of both.
    They were told to Brexit. They had very few options. That some of them actually wanted to do so too is unforgiveable but what can you do (not vote for them, obvs).
    And yet Boris still polls around 40% and Labour are not going anywhere at present
    Off topic, but in response to your post.

    Considering where Labour were last year, off the back of an 80 seat commons defeat, their almost level pegging with the Conservatives is quite remarkable.

    The polls go one of two ways. The Conservatives, on the back of Johnson's Churchillian victory over Covid go stratospheric. The alternative being, when the economic reality bites as the support packages peter out and the economy struggles, that 40% gets chipped away, and if and when it happens at a growing pace.

    I expect the latter, but Johnson being Johnson, haven't dismissed the former out of hand.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,118
    Yes, Fascism is a distinct political ideology. It believes the individual should subsume themselves within a military citizenship for the greater glory of the state under a strong dictator, which is in a life or death Darwinian "win-lose" struggle with other states.

    I suspect that Trump has no personal interest in that as a philosophy. The biggest reason we're confused is because the word "fascist" has been de-based so often, and against anyone pursuing right-wing policies for no long, that we now forget what it really means.

    He's clearly a demagogue. A nationalistic narcissistic demagogue, with hardly any morals or scruples whatsoever, and obsessed with winning or being seen to win (at any cost) - and even with quasi-fascist methods at time on social media - but not a Fascist.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,034

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht.

    A little more time considering treaties and long term implications from politicians generally might not go amiss.

    As I pointed out at the time, there wasn't a lot of point in reading it before the vote as no modifications could be made. The choice was Deal (half baked) or No Deal.

    @NickPalmer has pointed out in the past that MPs should be able to not read the detail on every bill, as that was the point of whips instructing how to vote. It does rather rely on the whips/party leaders having read it though.
    You would hope that the minister responsible for the area would read it. Ken Clarke didn't read Maastricht because it wasn't his responsibility - other cabinet ministers had that responsibility.

    Everyone else will be operating on the assumption that the person responsible should have read it and agreed to it. But hey that clearly isn't Boris's way.
    If I was a Minister I would have read it because I am a lawyer and therefore slightly anal about these things but I can see the argument for most politicians is that what you really want is advice and information on the sticking points, the controversial issues and how this is going to affect your constituents. There are hundreds of pages of the deal that are just boring boilerplate and frankly not that interesting.
    Isn't the difference with these trade deals that, by the time they reach Parliament, they need to be either approved or not, with no chance of amendment unlike most legislation.

    There was no opportunity to argue the deal line by line in Parliament, because that had already been done by the negotiating team, with the other side.
    Yes, I made that point at the time. There is no room for amendment. You can of course highlight the problem, as you see it, with clause 679 but whether that problem determines your vote in favour or against is part of an overall weighing process and, in this case, deal rather than no deal was a no brainer given the totally inadequate preparation for the latter.
    The deal spent all its time looking at tariffs which as an economist is the thing you usually worry about.

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be. And while in theory you can automate it away you can only do so if both teams co-operate and there is zero reason for EU countries to co-operate unless there is an incentive for them to do so.

    And that incentive simply doesn't exist - they can drown us in paperwork by stating it's incomplete and there is nothing we can do about it.

    The incentive remains obvious. They have 80bn incentives a year and every one of them a £1.00. Do they really want their exports subject to this sort of nonsense? Do they really want it to be easier for a UK importer to import Australian wine rather than French? Of course not. It will be toned down with trusted trader schemes and other steps to remove the problem over time as the heat goes out of this. Its inevitable.
    There's politics all over this.

    In the same way as there's a common travel area for the British Isles, it seems logical to me that there should be a common sanitary and phytosanitary area too - i.e. free movement of plants and animals, as well as people - with common LPF standards to protect human, animal or plant health; measures agreed bilaterally between Eire and the UK. We all buy British and Irish beef, for example. This is logical as the British Isles are an integrated ecosystem removed from the European mainland, and it's rather unlikely that food products going from Ireland to GB supermarkets and from GB to NI supermarkets are "at risk" of entering the broader continental single market, as 99%+ of them will be bought and consumed locally, unless someone from Ireland tries to sneak in a ham sandwich. This could be subject to review in future if the UK wanted to change its standards or do a very open FTA with the USA - for example, admitting agricultural products of a different standard - but otherwise remain extant.

    But, the remorseless logic is that because Eire is an EU member state they mustn't make any adjustment for Brexit whatsoever due to the UK's decision, nor suffer any SPS checks of their own produce when exporting to other EU member states, therefore the border must be down the Irish Sea between GB and Ireland.

    I understand that perspective but I think this misjudges several things, not least of which the economic and political reality. Firstly, Eire already does - it hasn't joined Schengen because that would threaten the CTA, so is following the UK there despite the fact it would otherwise join. Secondly, Eire and NI already have island of Ireland alignment on a number of things, and joint governance, even pre-Brexit. Thirdly, most of Eire's exports on meat and dairy do go to the UK, and it's just made life much more difficult for itself there and, finally, as far as the peace process is concerned it would be far easier to sell to both sides if the nationalists knew there was a NI/GB border for manufactured goods, and similar products genuinely at risk of sneaking into the broader EU single market, but also to unionists with a common British Isles SPS area as well, so the solution was politically equitable and reflected economic reality.

    We haven't heard the end of the NI story yet. It's a very difficult and unique situation and neither the EU, UK or Eire have been creative enough in finding solutions to make it work for a province that in all other areas (including even citizenship) is the biggest fudge of fudges on the planet within a much broader British Isles grey area - by design.

    It needs designing some more.
    Northern Ireland and Eire is a different set of issues.

    This started off with exporting and importing to / from the rest of the EU
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 38,782
    kjh said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    The killer issue here is that no-one understood how bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.

    Say what?

    Small children in Dumbarton knew exactly how the fuck bad the introduction of paperwork was going to be.
    Our Government didn't otherwise we wouldn't be in this mess.
    I disagree. The government knew exactly how bad it would be. But they had been told by the Brexiters to worsen the terms of trade with our erstwhile trading partners and they obliged.

    The government absolutely knew. To think otherwise is simply not credible.
    Is the government actively malign, or just stupid and incompetent? It's hard to tell. I would go for a bit of both.
    They were told to Brexit. They had very few options. That some of them actually wanted to do so too is unforgiveable but what can you do (not vote for them, obvs).
    And yet Boris still polls around 40% and Labour are not going anywhere at present
    That is a result of our stale political system of 2 party politics.
    Good thing the LibDems look so bright and shiny new then, eh?
  • My word, The Guardian has found a bigger grifter than Donald Trump

  • Nigelb said:

    That Trump video was painful to watch. Sat so still that he almost looked chained to his chair. Hands tightly clasped together. Occasionally cocking his head over in disbelief at what was on the autocue.

    The Senate trial doesn't matter now. He has already be de facto removed from office and is facing an avalanche of legal problems next week. Federal investigation into sedition and incitement. Potentially federal investigation into treason (over Russia). New York State investigation into his dodgy finances. DC investigation into last week's failed coup.

    His brand is trash. His lines of credit pulled with hundreds of millions of Dollars owed. A fire sale of assets at the very least. And Giuliani will sue him for non-payment of his legal fees.

    And all because a Capitol Police shot Ashli Babbitt...

    My fear is the millions of Trump supporters who are armed and ready to continue this battle and every move against Trump, warranted as it is, will only prolong the bitter and dangerous division

    Vengeance may satisfy some, but at what cost to the many who are desperate to turn the page on this catastrophic Trump period
    Surrendering to threats of violence is hardly the way to turn the page on Trump.
    Impeachment is not ‘vengeance’; it is a constitutional remedy to his behaviour, which cannot be ignored.
    I am not arguing he should not be impeached and he must be removed from standing again

    However, he has millions of armed and idiotic supporters and continuing a feud with him will only embolden them
  • Sri Lanka are going to get a first innings lead here.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 25,698
    edited January 14
    Surely the point is that fascism has always been a disputed category unless applied to Mussolini and his party? Were Salazar, Franco, Peron etc fascists? Trump certainly belongs to that basket of deplorables to whom the question can be applied.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 917
    edited January 14
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    AlistairM said:

    I made a comment yesterday that there were likely to be big geographical differences in vaccination rates. Just heard another anecdote.

    My parents (78 and 72) are in Berkshire near Reading and they haven't been contacted yet about their vaccines. They have a friend who is closer to Reading who is 71 and has their vaccination scheduled for today. Meanwhile my 84 year old father in law in Buckinghamshire has not heard anything.

    If this situation goes further out of line then I can see this becoming an issue. Particularly if some locations get through the top 4 priority groups and then start on the rest whilst some parts of the country are still well behind.

    Especially if it turns out that the North is missing out or that certain deprived postcodes aren't getting supplies and so on.

    A lot of it depends on how proactice surgeries are. In Southampton some surgeries have got through their 80+ people and are now moving on to their 75+ . Others have barely done any.
    Currently I think it's logistics that are the issue as Pfizer has complex requirements.

    From memory Southampton University Hospital is a hub so moving that vaccine around Southampton is so much easier than say South Cumbria where the nearest hub is Carlisle.
    The difference between neighbouring surgeries in Southampton is remarkable.
    As with so much with the NHS. You need pointy elbows and to shout loudly to get just about anything done.

    I would bet those surgeries with the vaccine were pro-active; those without were/are still waiting to be contacted.
    If you are elderly and turn up looking confused or weak many places will assume you are always like that.

    A friend had a treatable bone cancer but turned up in a bit of a state due to a calcium imbalance. She was given a week or so by the first doctor and effectively consigned to the bin. Once her daughter turned up and pointed out that, no, this wasn't her normal state someone actually looked and found the problem. She is still going 2 years later, as once the treatment started the service was fine.

    A similar thing happened to my Dad when he had an infection (which often causes dementia-like symptoms). I had to be there to say - no, this isn't normal, look again.

    Not everywhere is like that, but...
This discussion has been closed.