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The loneliness of the long-distance leader – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    That's not going to wash with the media.
    If someone refuses it we should move swiftly on to the next person. We can't hang around for people to think about it.
    They are already over offering. An elderly lady here was offered a slot and by the time she phoned back, they had all gone. She was told to wait another week or two.
  • Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    Everything about Kate Green screams hard-Left polytechnic sociology lecturer.

    He really needs to reshuffle his front bench.
    She was absolute dismal on Radio 4 this morning. Waffle, utterly mediocre.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.

    Boris has delivered Brexit with a Deal and is now rolling out the vaccinations faster than any other European country and as BluestBlue has correctly pointed out in the latest poll today still has a comfortable 5% poll lead after 10 years of the Tories in power.

    You may have had enough, the country clearly has not
    I can promise you that you do not have to be a leftwinger to loathe and despise Johnson.

    OTOH I think it is ridiculous to claim he is generally more hated than Thatcher. If you think she was "respected as competent" by the "Maggie out" lot, you just weren't there at the time.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    Its not an either/or. Labour are useless too. However Labour aren't in government.

    Labour (& the Liberal Democrat) are in Government in Wales.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    That's not going to wash with the media.
    If someone refuses it we should move swiftly on to the next person. We can't hang around for people to think about it.
    They are already over offering. An elderly lady here was offered a slot and by the time she phoned back, they had all gone. She was told to wait another week or two.
    That's good in a way. It's what we have to do to do this quickly.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Few Tories prepared to defend the government tonight. It’s very telling that they prefer to talk about shadow ministers or the devolved assembly. Literally anything other than their own record. It’s a bit of a basket case.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,315
    One very important topic was missing from the PM's speech: a support package for business.

    Nothing. Not even a hint? Sunak has vanished. He appears to have washed his hands of the economy. Even the pitiful grant promised last November has yet to be paid.

    This is another March-style lockdown. So why aren't we getting another March-style support package?

    I know you must all be bored of hearing about my Daughter. But hers was the only venue still open until closure last week. Her place was as full as it could be. Some others round here are never reopening. Viable businesses are being killed - not because of capitalism or because of a lack of demand (people are desperate to return when it becomes possible) but because of government indifference.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Most schools have been running online learning alongside face to face throughout the last term as they have kids having to self isolate due to exposure. This is not to deflect any criticism from Johnson but to point out that schools have ben doing this now for several months at least.

    Secondaries are by and large geared up for this - we were supposed to be online this week anyway. It's actually preferable to what the plan for next week was i.e. exam years in, but online learning for Years 7-9, plus 12s, which would have been a total pain in the arse to say the least.

    It's Primaries I feel for, they have been messed about in a ridiculous manner.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    That's not going to wash with the media.
    If someone refuses it we should move swiftly on to the next person. We can't hang around for people to think about it.
    They are already over offering. An elderly lady here was offered a slot and by the time she phoned back, they had all gone. She was told to wait another week or two.
    That's good in a way. It's what we have to do to do this quickly.
    Yes, that’s exactly right. No waiting for call backs - that will clog up the system. First come, first served.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    Just to keep the teachers in England happy -

    https://twitter.com/miss_mcinerney/status/1346196357342748674
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Jonathan said:

    Few Tories prepared to defend the government tonight. It’s very telling that they prefer to talk about shadow ministers or the devolved assembly. Literally anything other than their own record. It’s a bit of a basket case.

    The tweet about sending primary school kids in for one day to share the virus said it all.

    That and the fact that pretty much every PB’er knew this was where we were headed since at least late last week.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The schools U-Turn, despite by unaffected by it being in Scotland, has genuinely left me baffled and enraged on behalf of my friends down South.

    Scottish parents has weeks to prep for Home Schooling. English parents a few hours.

    And just like March this screeching u-turn is based on no new information.
  • Jonathan said:

    Few Tories prepared to defend the government tonight. It’s very telling that they prefer to talk about shadow ministers or the devolved assembly. Literally anything other than their own record. It’s a bit of a basket case.

    Devolved Wales is responsible for the total mismanagement of covid and it is that that affects me and my family, not anything Boris does, and believe you me Drakeford is a disaster
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Few Tories prepared to defend the government tonight. It’s very telling that they prefer to talk about shadow ministers or the devolved assembly. Literally anything other than their own record. It’s a bit of a basket case.

    The tweet about sending primary school kids in for one day to share the virus said it all.

    That and the fact that pretty much every PB’er knew this was where we were headed since at least late last week.
    Well quite. It’s a proper fuck up. No doubt about it. Asleep at the wheel.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Few Tories prepared to defend the government tonight. It’s very telling that they prefer to talk about shadow ministers or the devolved assembly. Literally anything other than their own record. It’s a bit of a basket case.

    Devolved Wales is responsible for the total mismanagement of covid and it is that that affects me and my family, not anything Boris does, and believe you me Drakeford is a disaster
    QED
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    That's not going to wash with the media.
    If someone refuses it we should move swiftly on to the next person. We can't hang around for people to think about it.
    They are already over offering. An elderly lady here was offered a slot and by the time she phoned back, they had all gone. She was told to wait another week or two.
    That's good in a way. It's what we have to do to do this quickly.
    Yes, that’s exactly right. No waiting for call backs - that will clog up the system. First come, first served.
    For sure. It will however be possible for someone who is slow at picking up messages to be offered slots multiple times and each time drop back to a later schedule. Expect some anecdotal media stories if this becomes a thing.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Jonathan said:

    Few Tories prepared to defend the government tonight. It’s very telling that they prefer to talk about shadow ministers or the devolved assembly. Literally anything other than their own record. It’s a bit of a basket case.

    I am afraid it is only Mark Reckless and his right wing buddies who refer to it as an "assembly" now.

    The word is only used by the semi-fascists ...

    Because the name changed. It is the Welsh Parliament or the Senedd Cymru.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Normally that would be a valid question that would be hard to answer.

    There is nothing surprising about this, it is a pattern of behaviour we have seen repeatedly from the PM.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Didn't want to spoil the holiday?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Gaussian said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
    Schools reopening should be a separate first step before tier 3 (aka non-essential shops).

    Do you think the vaccination targets are realistic?
    The school mixing will be a major concern. I don’t know if they’ll gamble on sooner.
    Achievable? Well, 7,000 vaccinators giving 65 jabs each per day (plus whatever support they need) would give over 3 million per week; I think that’s achievable with enough resources.
    If we’re getting a million Pfizer and 2 million Oxford per week, it’s sustainable on the supply front.
    If Novavax and/or J&J come in and get authorised in, say, Feb, it could be accelerated further very feasibly.
    Yes; this is all about supply. If we have the vaccines, we'll get them into peoples' arms.
  • I think the answer is that Johnson copied Sturgeon's homework. The text is identical.
  • HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.
    More people voted for Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP/SF/APNI than for Con/BXP/UKIP/DUP/UUP at General Election 2019. Strange but True!
  • Scott_xP said:
    Most schools have been running online learning alongside face to face throughout the last term as they have kids having to self isolate due to exposure. This is not to deflect any criticism from Johnson but to point out that schools have ben doing this now for several months at least.

    Secondaries are by and large geared up for this - we were supposed to be online this week anyway. It's actually preferable to what the plan for next week was i.e. exam years in, but online learning for Years 7-9, plus 12s, which would have been a total pain in the arse to say the least.

    It's Primaries I feel for, they have been messed about in a ridiculous manner.
    As recently as last Wednesday, primaries everywhere were meant to be opening fully this week everywhere.

    Incredible, when you stop and think about it. In fact, the whole thing has been crazy.

    November: nationwide restrictions

    December 2: Tiers version 2.0. London in T2, despite rising cases.

    December 14: London moved to T3.

    December 19: London moved to newly-created T4.

    Incredible when you put it in a timeline like that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    I think a single dose will work well enough for "most people" - but the top 4 groups are the top 4 for a reason - they are by definition almost those with the weakest immune systems.
    Really not sure about the half dosing, particularly with Pfizer.

    The plan in to give everyone the booster shot as well, within a maximum of twelve weeks:
    ... Everyone will still receive their second dose, but this will now be within 12 weeks of their first.
    The Oxford-AstraZeneca second dose should be given between four and 12 weeks after the first, while the interval between the first and second Pfizer doses should be three to 12 weeks....


    FWIW, scientific opinion seems to be quite divided on the delayed booster policy, but also seems to tilt in favour of what we’re doing.

    My guess (and it is a guess) is that the fears over this are slightly overblown.
    Ultimately it depends on whether we want robust science or a shot in the dark. There is no efficacy data for delayed booster Pfizer regimes.

    The AZN study cov002 did have efficacy with a median 84 day gap, so I think not unreasonable to have a 12 week gap for it.

    It’s not entirely a shot in the dark, given what we know of antibody maturation timescales, and the very significant drop in rates of infection between wk.2 and wk.3 after the first shot in the Pfizer trial.

    And we could fairly quickly render it less so if we adopted this suggestion.
    https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/04/stop-debating-first-shot-vs-set-aside-hospitals-should-compare-them/
    It is most certainly not a 'shot in the dark'. At worst, it is an educated guess, but based on some pretty solid molecular biology theorizing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    edited January 2021
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    I would expect a 60-70% uptake, so 14 million offers is probably 9 million or so given.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    It’s almost as if there was something that the government thought more important recently. Something that took priority over Coronavirus planning. Something that took their eye off the ball at the critical moment. I don’t think it was mince pies.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,095
    edited January 2021

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    My guess is somebody like Witty showed him, Sturgeon, et al. some very simple chart earlier today that said we are here....in 7 days days we will be there....at which point the NHS will implode and 10,000s of extra people will die.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.
    More people voted for Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP/SF/APNI than for Con/BXP/UKIP/DUP/UUP at General Election 2019. Strange but True!
    Does not change the point as in both voteshare terms and seats won Boris won by more than any Tory leader since Thatcher.

    No PM's party has ever won over 50% of the vote in the UK since before WW2
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    I think the answer is that Johnson copied Sturgeon's homework. The text is identical.

    https://twitter.com/IamAnnaEvans/status/1346189675048951808
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited January 2021
    tlg86 said:

    JACK_W said:

    After today one has to come to the inevitable conclusion that HMG and the Loyal Opposition are total toss pots.

    End of message.

    Nah, that was TM's No 10...

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1346139570451185666
    As some light relief on a heavy night, that policy of May's always was a bit strange, and somehow out of time. It seemed to belong more to the early 'nineties, still the era of Back to Basics and Mary Whitehouse, than the rest of the bizarre 2017 manifesto, with its fox-hunting and various other commitments.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    edited January 2021

    I think the answer is that Johnson copied Sturgeon's homework. The text is identical.

    It isn't - seem too many differences. Notably the Scots warning children off scholl till the 18th some time before (other than vulnerable/key worker children etc.), on 21 December

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-school-re-opening-arrangements-for-january-2021/pages/schools-opening-timeline/

    Also differences in travel within the respective countries.

    Church services etc permitted in England. And so on.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Most schools have been running online learning alongside face to face throughout the last term as they have kids having to self isolate due to exposure. This is not to deflect any criticism from Johnson but to point out that schools have ben doing this now for several months at least.

    Secondaries are by and large geared up for this - we were supposed to be online this week anyway. It's actually preferable to what the plan for next week was i.e. exam years in, but online learning for Years 7-9, plus 12s, which would have been a total pain in the arse to say the least.

    It's Primaries I feel for, they have been messed about in a ridiculous manner.
    As recently as last Wednesday, primaries everywhere were meant to be opening fully this week everywhere.

    Incredible, when you stop and think about it. In fact, the whole thing has been crazy.

    November: nationwide restrictions

    December 2: Tiers version 2.0. London in T2, despite rising cases.

    December 14: London moved to T3.

    December 19: London moved to newly-created T4.

    Incredible when you put it in a timeline like that.
    And the official tier review for London was December 16! They left it unchanged in T3 then......but changed it two days before and three days later, gives such confidence to the public!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,095
    edited January 2021
    "finalizing proposals"....FFS....get 'er done. Didn't they announce months ago plans for testing at airports etc.

    Its very simple, you say no you can't come to the UK, you can't leave the UK...unless, insert small number of exceptions, and you must also have a negative test.
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.
    More people voted for Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP/SF/APNI than for Con/BXP/UKIP/DUP/UUP at General Election 2019. Strange but True!
    Does not change the point as in both voteshare terms and seats won Boris won by more than any Tory leader since Thatcher.

    No PM's party has ever won over 50% of the vote in the UK since before WW2
    Does not change the point that Left-wing parties won more votes than Right-wing parties!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725
    Carnyx said:

    I think the answer is that Johnson copied Sturgeon's homework. The text is identical.

    It isn't - seem too many differences. Notably the Scots warning children off scholl till the 18th some time before (other than vulnerable/key worker children etc.), on 21 December

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-school-re-opening-arrangements-for-january-2021/pages/schools-opening-timeline/

    Also differences in travel within the respective countries.

    Church services etc permitted in England. And so on.
    Church services are a bonus. The Church of england alienated lots of its congregation by Welby stupidity over the last lockdown.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Cyclefree said:

    One very important topic was missing from the PM's speech: a support package for business.

    Nothing. Not even a hint? Sunak has vanished. He appears to have washed his hands of the economy. Even the pitiful grant promised last November has yet to be paid.

    This is another March-style lockdown. So why aren't we getting another March-style support package?

    I know you must all be bored of hearing about my Daughter. But hers was the only venue still open until closure last week. Her place was as full as it could be. Some others round here are never reopening. Viable businesses are being killed - not because of capitalism or because of a lack of demand (people are desperate to return when it becomes possible) but because of government indifference.

    Realistically they have until Wednesday to announce something concrete - after all Johnson has only just made his mind up to act.
    I hope they will, but it would not surprise me massively if they don’t. Fingers crossed for you and the rest of the hospitality trade.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Scott_xP said:
    Most schools have been running online learning alongside face to face throughout the last term as they have kids having to self isolate due to exposure. This is not to deflect any criticism from Johnson but to point out that schools have ben doing this now for several months at least.

    Secondaries are by and large geared up for this - we were supposed to be online this week anyway. It's actually preferable to what the plan for next week was i.e. exam years in, but online learning for Years 7-9, plus 12s, which would have been a total pain in the arse to say the least.

    It's Primaries I feel for, they have been messed about in a ridiculous manner.
    As recently as last Wednesday, primaries everywhere were meant to be opening fully this week everywhere.

    Incredible, when you stop and think about it. In fact, the whole thing has been crazy.

    November: nationwide restrictions

    December 2: Tiers version 2.0. London in T2, despite rising cases.

    December 14: London moved to T3.

    December 19: London moved to newly-created T4.

    Incredible when you put it in a timeline like that.
    3 weeks since endless media slots celebrating football crowds and West End shows.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HTML and PDF versions of government advice do not exactly agree. This has already led to arguments here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.
    More people voted for Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP/SF/APNI than for Con/BXP/UKIP/DUP/UUP at General Election 2019. Strange but True!
    Does not change the point as in both voteshare terms and seats won Boris won by more than any Tory leader since Thatcher.

    No PM's party has ever won over 50% of the vote in the UK since before WW2
    Does not change the point that Left-wing parties won more votes than Right-wing parties!
    The LDs cannot be counted as a left-wing party, they opposed a Corbyn premiership and were in a coalition government with the Tories just 6 years ago, a minister from which is now the LD leader
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    I would expect a 60-70% uptake, so 14 million offers is probably 9 million or so given.
    That uptake seems low enough to worry about reaching herd immunity at all given the unrestricted R is well above 3. I find it difficult to believe though given all we've gone through. 10% of conspiracy nuts, maybe, but >30%?
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Nothing happened this morning.
    They did it because they are clueless morons.
  • Omnium said:

    Starmer was better tonight in response to PM's announcement.

    Keep Calmer! :lol:
  • Carnyx said:

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Didn't want to spoil the holiday?

    It does remind me of that scene from When Harry Met Sally (not that one), where Billy Crystal's wife leaves him 'Why didn't you tell me sooner? She said - I didn't want to ruin your birthday.'
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Nothing happened this morning.
    They did it because they are clueless morons.
    Are you spreading Fake News or did you just not see the news?

    Alert Level 5 happened this morning.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-alert-level-update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Why does it say "England" ?

    Have we identified who is responsible for restrictions on international travellers entering via the Scottish & Welsh Airports ?

    (The only international airport in Wales is owned by the Welsh Government).
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
  • Are Liverpool trying to throw away the top spot just before the season gets halted?

    Seems like they're trying to gift Manchester United the title right now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    .
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    I would expect a 60-70% uptake, so 14 million offers is probably 9 million or so given.
    If the offered doses are genuine, though, won’t they over offer well above the 14m to ensure they beat that 60-70% ?
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
    The numbers have been changing but either way the Alert Level was put into 5 today, it is a complete and utter lie to say nothing has changed today.
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Nothing happened this morning.
    They did it because they are clueless morons.
    Are you spreading Fake News or did you just not see the news?

    Alert Level 5 happened this morning.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-alert-level-update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers
    Thats the effect. Nothing changed in the cause. The pox spike going vertical didn't just happen this morning. It took them until Sturgeon moved to realise they had to follow.

    She leads, he follows. Again.
  • Are Liverpool trying to throw away the top spot just before the season gets halted?

    Seems like they're trying to gift Manchester United the title right now.

    It is a siege on the Southampton goal
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
    The numbers have been changing but either way the Alert Level was put into 5 today, it is a complete and utter lie to say nothing has changed today.
    Why was the Bio meeting not brought forward to the weekend knowing that schools would reopen in some parts of UK today?
  • Why does it say "England" ?

    Have we identified who is responsible for restrictions on international travellers entering via the Scottish & Welsh Airports ?

    (The only international airport in Wales is owned by the Welsh Government).
    This afternoon's ding-dong over Scotland made it clear that aviation is a UK matter not for devolved governments. They may own the airport but UK air policy isn't set by them.
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Nothing happened this morning.
    They did it because they are clueless morons.
    Are you spreading Fake News or did you just not see the news?

    Alert Level 5 happened this morning.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-alert-level-update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers
    Thats the effect. Nothing changed in the cause. The pox spike going vertical didn't just happen this morning. It took them until Sturgeon moved to realise they had to follow.

    She leads, he follows. Again.
    No she didn't lead. The Joint CMOs and the Biosecurity Centre led. Then she was first out of the gate after everyone got that news while the PM prepared his statement for 8pm.

    It was the Alert Level 5 that caused this, not Sturgeon. She followed what Boris did on the exact same day. Why do you think she waited until that Alert Level and acted at the same time otherwise? 🙄
  • Gaussian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    I would expect a 60-70% uptake, so 14 million offers is probably 9 million or so given.
    That uptake seems low enough to worry about reaching herd immunity at all given the unrestricted R is well above 3. I find it difficult to believe though given all we've gone through. 10% of conspiracy nuts, maybe, but >30%?
    I don't think there will be nearly that many refusers amongst the older age groups. Younger, quite possibly.

    --AS
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most schools have been running online learning alongside face to face throughout the last term as they have kids having to self isolate due to exposure. This is not to deflect any criticism from Johnson but to point out that schools have ben doing this now for several months at least.

    Secondaries are by and large geared up for this - we were supposed to be online this week anyway. It's actually preferable to what the plan for next week was i.e. exam years in, but online learning for Years 7-9, plus 12s, which would have been a total pain in the arse to say the least.

    It's Primaries I feel for, they have been messed about in a ridiculous manner.
    As recently as last Wednesday, primaries everywhere were meant to be opening fully this week everywhere.

    Incredible, when you stop and think about it. In fact, the whole thing has been crazy.

    November: nationwide restrictions

    December 2: Tiers version 2.0. London in T2, despite rising cases.

    December 14: London moved to T3.

    December 19: London moved to newly-created T4.

    Incredible when you put it in a timeline like that.
    3 weeks since endless media slots celebrating football crowds and West End shows.
    Herefordshire has gone from Tier 1 to 5 in the space of the twelve days of xmas.
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
    The numbers have been changing but either way the Alert Level was put into 5 today, it is a complete and utter lie to say nothing has changed today.
    Why was the Bio meeting not brought forward to the weekend knowing that schools would reopen in some parts of UK today?
    No idea. Do you know? Do you know how often they do meet? I'd assume as often as needed.

    Either way, they acted today - and then all 4 nations followed, on the same day.
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
    The numbers have been changing but either way the Alert Level was put into 5 today, it is a complete and utter lie to say nothing has changed today.
    This is from SAGE on 22 December:

    "It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency and adherence in line with the
    measures in England in November (i.e. with schools open) would be sufficient to
    maintain R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. R would be lower with schools
    closed, with closure of secondary schools likely to have a greater effect than closure of
    primary schools. It remains difficult to distinguish where transmission between children
    takes place, and it is important to consider contacts made outside of schools.

    It is not known whether measures with similar stringency and adherence as Spring, with
    both primary and secondary schools closed, would be sufficient to bring R below 1 in the
    presence of the new variant. The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined
    with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to
    control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January."

    Yet we had large parts of the country in tier 3 and put our head in the sands on closing schools.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    @viewcode Thank you for your message. I have responded. Appreciated.


    I think I got myself into a bit of a pickle in the last thread. In trying to respond to a specific challenge and using simplistic responses for brevity I dug myself into a hole.

    I don't think the EU is particularly democratic nor the UK as I would like to see either of them, but equally they are not totally undemocratic either. Both having different strengths and weaknesses.

    All I wanted to do is point out that it is nonsense to categorize one as democratic and the other not. They have different systems with different strengths, but in particular different weaknesses.

    I suspect @Richard_Tyndall we probably don't disagree much, but you responded to my simplistic response to a nonsense post (not yours) and I wouldn't disagree with any of your assertions in response to my posts which were made to make a simple point to just point out differences.

    Made worse by the comment 'Yet more bollocks'. Don't mind being told I am talking bollocks. It was the 'yet more' that flabbergasted me as it was my first post so I was paranoid about what previous bollocks I posted?

    In fact you made an excellent argument.
    That is very kind of you, but I wasn't particularly impressed by my own posts. In each case I left myself open to valid criticism to what I had written which in turn moved away from the point I was making and the hole just kept getting bigger and bigger. To get out of it I would have needed to write a tome to demonstrate I was neither unknowledgeable or irrational to the workings of the various systems. And all in the end to point out the nonsense n a post whose author had long left the discussion.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Sturgeon hasn't told him what to do yet. Would be the gag. But Scotland had already shut schools well in advance of this.

    This is a spectacular level of fuck up. Truly astounding.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Nothing happened this morning.
    They did it because they are clueless morons.
    Are you spreading Fake News or did you just not see the news?

    Alert Level 5 happened this morning.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-alert-level-update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers
    Thats the effect. Nothing changed in the cause. The pox spike going vertical didn't just happen this morning. It took them until Sturgeon moved to realise they had to follow.

    She leads, he follows. Again.
    No she didn't lead. The Joint CMOs and the Biosecurity Centre led. Then she was first out of the gate after everyone got that news while the PM prepared his statement for 8pm.

    It was the Alert Level 5 that caused this, not Sturgeon. She followed what Boris did on the exact same day. Why do you think she waited until that Alert Level and acted at the same time otherwise? 🙄
    She was tweeting over the weekend that new restrictions were coming and that the parliament was to be recalled for an urgent covid statement, so if that's the case she also knew this new level 5 was coming in advance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Barnard Castle trending.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Nothing happened this morning.
    They did it because they are clueless morons.
    Are you spreading Fake News or did you just not see the news?

    Alert Level 5 happened this morning.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-alert-level-update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers
    Thats the effect. Nothing changed in the cause. The pox spike going vertical didn't just happen this morning. It took them until Sturgeon moved to realise they had to follow.

    She leads, he follows. Again.
    No she didn't lead. The Joint CMOs and the Biosecurity Centre led. Then she was first out of the gate after everyone got that news while the PM prepared his statement for 8pm.

    It was the Alert Level 5 that caused this, not Sturgeon. She followed what Boris did on the exact same day. Why do you think she waited until that Alert Level and acted at the same time otherwise? 🙄
    Scottish schools being shut was done weeks ago.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Gaussian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    I would expect a 60-70% uptake, so 14 million offers is probably 9 million or so given.
    That uptake seems low enough to worry about reaching herd immunity at all given the unrestricted R is well above 3. I find it difficult to believe though given all we've gone through. 10% of conspiracy nuts, maybe, but >30%?
    Just looking at immunisation rates for other diseases, and uptake of things like screening programmes.

    Cervical cancer screening gets 71% uptake, breast cancer 72%, bowel cancer 64% all pretty much in the same ballpark as flu vaccination.


  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Most schools have been running online learning alongside face to face throughout the last term as they have kids having to self isolate due to exposure. This is not to deflect any criticism from Johnson but to point out that schools have ben doing this now for several months at least.

    Secondaries are by and large geared up for this - we were supposed to be online this week anyway. It's actually preferable to what the plan for next week was i.e. exam years in, but online learning for Years 7-9, plus 12s, which would have been a total pain in the arse to say the least.

    It's Primaries I feel for, they have been messed about in a ridiculous manner.
    As recently as last Wednesday, primaries everywhere were meant to be opening fully this week everywhere.

    Incredible, when you stop and think about it. In fact, the whole thing has been crazy.

    November: nationwide restrictions

    December 2: Tiers version 2.0. London in T2, despite rising cases.

    December 14: London moved to T3.

    December 19: London moved to newly-created T4.

    Incredible when you put it in a timeline like that.
    3 weeks since endless media slots celebrating football crowds and West End shows.
    Herefordshire has gone from Tier 1 to 5 in the space of the twelve days of xmas.
    There is no "Tier 5"!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Did they fuck up the announcement as well?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1346211956454285317
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
    The numbers have been changing but either way the Alert Level was put into 5 today, it is a complete and utter lie to say nothing has changed today.
    This is from SAGE on 22 December:

    "It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency and adherence in line with the
    measures in England in November (i.e. with schools open) would be sufficient to
    maintain R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. R would be lower with schools
    closed, with closure of secondary schools likely to have a greater effect than closure of
    primary schools. It remains difficult to distinguish where transmission between children
    takes place, and it is important to consider contacts made outside of schools.

    It is not known whether measures with similar stringency and adherence as Spring, with
    both primary and secondary schools closed, would be sufficient to bring R below 1 in the
    presence of the new variant. The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined
    with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to
    control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January."

    Yet we had large parts of the country in tier 3 and put our head in the sands on closing schools.
    "The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined
    with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to
    control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January."

    Yes - that was done. SAGE advice was followed. Tier 4 measures were introduced combined with the school
    holidays.

    So the Government did exactly what SAGE advised as per your quotation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    FYI: yesterday Israel reached 12% of their population having recieved at least one dose (that's more than 15% of adults). They only started vaccinating on 20 December, so they're currently moving at 1% of the population getting jabbed a day.

    (This does not include Palestinians in the occupied territories.)
  • Barnard Castle trending.

    Twatter?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Why does it say "England" ?

    Have we identified who is responsible for restrictions on international travellers entering via the Scottish & Welsh Airports ?

    (The only international airport in Wales is owned by the Welsh Government).
    This afternoon's ding-dong over Scotland made it clear that aviation is a UK matter not for devolved governments. They may own the airport but UK air policy isn't set by them.
    It seems clear to me that in the case of Wales, the Welsh Government owns the airport and they can shut it down (if they want), or they can implement any testing regime they wish in the airport. They can block the access road (because they also own it).

    (It may be different in Scotland for which the major airports are privately owned).

    Once a passenger gets off a plane, & certainly once out of the airport, passengers are subject to any regulations set by the Welsh Government.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    When does Allegra start?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Foxy said:

    Gaussian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    I would expect a 60-70% uptake, so 14 million offers is probably 9 million or so given.
    That uptake seems low enough to worry about reaching herd immunity at all given the unrestricted R is well above 3. I find it difficult to believe though given all we've gone through. 10% of conspiracy nuts, maybe, but >30%?
    Just looking at immunisation rates for other diseases, and uptake of things like screening programmes.

    Cervical cancer screening gets 71% uptake, breast cancer 72%, bowel cancer 64% all pretty much in the same ballpark as flu vaccination.


    But none of them have been on the news and affecting everyone's lives for nearly a year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
    The numbers have been changing but either way the Alert Level was put into 5 today, it is a complete and utter lie to say nothing has changed today.
    Why was the Bio meeting not brought forward to the weekend knowing that schools would reopen in some parts of UK today?
    No idea. Do you know? Do you know how often they do meet? I'd assume as often as needed.

    Either way, they acted today - and then all 4 nations followed, on the same day.
    No I don't know. I'm not saying you do either.

    But it is a valid question and will probably be one of gazillions raised in the public inquiry.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,480

    Surely the government should start mass producing lots of hot broth whilst we wait for the nation to be vaccinated.

    An excellent idea, broth is extremely beneficial.
  • Must say that the Trump fleeing to Scotland story does put a smile on my face. He may not do it. But the Americans wouldn't have prepped for the trip had it not been kept as an option.
  • Liverpool lose
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Must say that the Trump fleeing to Scotland story does put a smile on my face. He may not do it. But the Americans wouldn't have prepped for the trip had it not been kept as an option.

    They can have him extradited back in exchange for us keeping Assange.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2021
    Good. I hate them too, I'd rather these restrictions only be the last resort too.

    And more grim news, now Liverpool have lost. Watch Liverpool slip to 2nd then the table gets halted before we get Van Dijk back . . .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,590
    I wish they'd update this page more often.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    HYUFD said:
    Really don't understand why it drops so much. I thought us younger people (I still count, I'm in the 25-34 range technically) beleived in science.
  • What happened this morning?

    Something?

    How else to explain a decision to open schools this morning and then by 8pm announce they were closing.

    Why did Johnson wait on Sunday?

    Alert Level 5 by the Joint Biosecurity Centre was today.

    Not last week, today.
    The numbers have been clear for 2-3 weeks.
    The numbers have been changing but either way the Alert Level was put into 5 today, it is a complete and utter lie to say nothing has changed today.
    This is from SAGE on 22 December:

    "It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency and adherence in line with the
    measures in England in November (i.e. with schools open) would be sufficient to
    maintain R below 1 in the presence of the new variant. R would be lower with schools
    closed, with closure of secondary schools likely to have a greater effect than closure of
    primary schools. It remains difficult to distinguish where transmission between children
    takes place, and it is important to consider contacts made outside of schools.

    It is not known whether measures with similar stringency and adherence as Spring, with
    both primary and secondary schools closed, would be sufficient to bring R below 1 in the
    presence of the new variant. The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined
    with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to
    control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January."

    Yet we had large parts of the country in tier 3 and put our head in the sands on closing schools.
    "The introduction of Tier 4 measures in England combined
    with the school holidays will be informative of the strength of measures required to
    control the new variant but analysis of this will not be possible until mid-January."

    Yes - that was done. SAGE advice was followed. Tier 4 measures were introduced combined with the school
    holidays.

    So the Government did exactly what SAGE advised as per your quotation.
    No. Given it was known on 22 December:

    - it is highly unlikely a lockdown stricter than tier 4 with schools open gets R below 1
    - infection rates were higher than the start of November lockdown
    - they were going to rise even further because of Xmas

    The only responsible option was to announce schools closed and give teachers, students and parents time to prepare.
This discussion has been closed.