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The loneliness of the long-distance leader – politicalbetting.com

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    It's slow, but also what I have pencilled in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.

    I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    Artist said:

    Worried that this lockdown sounds like it'll be ominously long.

    10 weeks minimum I'd say.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited January 2021

    Yup. Doesn't start until fucking Wednesday. Tosser.

    Starts immediately, but not law until start of Wednesday. I presume some legalisation needs to change.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    isam said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    “Liverpool are starting an outfield of three forwards, four attacking midfielders, two attack-minded fullbacks, and one holding midfielder,” notes Paul Done. “Heavy metal football has returned.”

    Have the Liverpool coaching team been listening to the KLF releases? The KLF/Extreme Noise Terror rendition of 3am Eternal is Heavy Metal something
    On BBC News the other day, one of the headlines was that The KLF had finally let their music available on Spotify. I thought it was probably the least important news I had ever heard on the Beeb - I doubt many people I know could name 3 of their songs, and they were about in our pomp! Weird
    I noticed that too.

    Is it just me that thinks the singer in 3 a.m. eternal is Claudia Webbe?
    Glad someone else did .I consider myself a music anorak, I worked in a record shop in the early 90s, and I think I could name 2 of their songs. Mentioned it to my missus and she'd never heard of them!
    I can do 5, which must make me a fanboi.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
  • Still no closing the borders....never....shakes head.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    rkrkrk said:

    Starmer calling for unity... maybe it's the right play, but can't help but wonder if he just lacks the killer instinct.

    Is he ever going to put the boot in?

    That’s for others to do. Kiers job is to do exactly what he did.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected

    SNIP

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.

    In terms of protected, speculative.

    I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.

    https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19

    T cell responses too:

    https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19


  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    Superb post. Thanks for doing it. Looks plausible, and acceptable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_xP said:
    I have a friend in one of those groups who has been told by his GP to expect a vaccination in "a couple of weeks"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    HYUFD said:

    Amidst announcing a new national lockdown Boris offers some encouragement saying all those over 70 or extremely vulnerable should be offered a vaccine by the end of Feburary.

    Boris aims to start to move out of lockdown and downgrade the tiers by the end of February too

    By mid-February I think he said.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601

    Keir Starmer very good on BBC 1 just now, I have to say.

    Hmmm. Flanneled around education.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MaxPB said:

    Why didn't he announce school closures yesterday, millions of kids went back to school resulting in masses of unnecessary household mixing.

    Everything this government does is too late.

    Term starts tomorrow here so I assumed that was the same everywhere. Ludicrous if that’s not the case!
  • Boris said we aren't coming out of lockdown until those 4 groups have been vaccinated....going to.be end of Feb at earliest.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    edited January 2021
    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Starmer is learning.

    Doing things as simple as this - being interviewed with his country's flag behind him - is exactly the sort of thing he should be doing more of.

    The fact it's triggered unreconstructed metropolitan Lefties like Michael Crick - who thinks it's akin to a BNP rally if there's too many of them - being a clear sign of the problem:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1346153400476573698?s=19

    I commented on the flag when I heard his live broadcast on Sky
    FFS , he is totally useless, and people in England immediately think he is good because he puts a flag behind himself. Is it any wonder the UK is F***ed , never mind that you are totally and utterly devoid of any ideas, you have a flag behind you.
    Well, it works OK for the SNP.
    Scots do not slaver and salivate
    If you say so.....



    Isn't that @Theuniondivvie ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    ydoethur said:

    Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.

    This is not hard.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    HYUFD said:
    Pretty much the only reasons I leave home anyway. Gods I'm boring.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Still no closing the borders....never....shakes head.

    Prof on Channel 4* agreeing with you.

    *No, I don’t normally watch it, but that was closest channel to the one I was watching showing Johnson’s statement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT



    Has he told Drakeford

    It is obvious that no one -- least of all SKS -- tells Drakeford anything.

    The disparity between Starmer's proclamations & Drakeford's actions are so glaring that the only explanation is that Labour have completely forgotten that they are running Wales.

    Possibly Labour have been running Wales for so long, they just think it is the place where they can mooch around in flip-flops and nothing ever gets done there.

    It is very common. OGH was earlier fulminating about the folly of keeping the schools open.

    Apparently OGH is unaware that the last LibDem in power anywhere (darling Kirsty) is actually in charge of the Welsh education portfolio, and is busy keeping the schools in Wales open.

    I have given up expecting any consistency between what English Labour and LibDem politicians say, and what their representatives in the Welsh Government actually do.
    I totally agree and of course Kirsty, the Liberal Democrat, is the one in charge of schools but not for much longer thankfully
    Yes, dear, dim Kirsty will be gone, retiring.

    She will be going on to do whatever failed LibDems go on to do.

    Posting on pb.com, probably. :)
    I think BigG. was alluding to the new Conservative Ed. Sec. in Paul Davies' first cabinet. Not beyond the realms of probability.

    Starmer's defeat in Wales will not look good against a resurgent Johnson and the Conservatives nationally, post Brexit, and post vaccine.
    Any Labour defeat or more likely seats lost in Wales will be down to Drakeford, as poor performance for SLab in Scotland can be blamed on Leonard, both are Corbynites so not part of the Starmer project.

    Starmer however is likely to make gains in England though regardless, for example last time the county council seats were up in 2017 the Tories were 11% ahead, even with Deltapoll's post Deal poll today they are only 5% ahead. Labour are also likely to win big in London in both the Mayoral and Assembly polls
    They may not be held in may
    It must be within the realms of the possible that the Holyrood elex will be postponed
    Having it in the week of the Scotland v England match in the Euros would be ... interesting.
    I expect the Euros to be cancelled
    Oh for goodness sake BigG, shall we just cancel all human life for this year too and decide to shut ourselves up for the rest of the year already.

    If the vaccinations have not significantly reduced the case rate by Spring and lockdowns are still ongoing I expect the level of non compliance will start to rise, especially amongst the young, they are not going to accept being confined to their residences for the rest of their lives. That is especially the case given Covid is a disease of no real threat to the under 50s even in the mutant faster spreading form.
    Many, many people think like Big G sadly.

    The impact of these lock downs is being felt very, very unevenly.

    Some people have lost everything. Others barely affected. Some people have better lives.

    I can understand BigG not wanting to go out until Covid is basically eliminated, he is near his 8th decade and that is fair enough, he is being safe.

    However for others, especially the young who are more likely to work in hospitality which has been hit hard by lockdown and want to live their lives not be constrained by everlasting lockdowns for a disease of little risk to them then I agree it is a different story
    I am one of the lucky ones who is due a vaccine shortly and I am not afraid of going out

    However, I practice hands face space religiously unlike many others
    In short, your life has barely been disrupted at all by covid. Which is great for you. You seem oblivious to the enormous sacrifices some have made for that to be the case though.

    Just moans about their lawbreaking.

    Time for you to play your part. We;re reducing your pension payments by ten per cent to help with the huge costs of letting you live as usual. OK?
    Greedy gits wanting to rob poor pensioners who worked all their lives for their meagre pensions, skanky pimply youngsters who would faint at having to do a hard days work now want to rob them to compensate their fecklessness. On your bike you halfwit.
    Witnessing this outbreak of good-natured cross-generational solidarity is deeply inspiring, malc.
  • UCL scientist on Shagger claiming it was new unforeseeable data that has forced this action - "it clearly isn't true"
  • Did he say anything about support bubbles?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    rcs1000 said:

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.

    I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
    Presumably France and other places should start seeing some big increases soon as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited January 2021

    Did he say anything about support bubbles?

    No, but it was briefed to press beforehand, same as usual rules.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601
    Discussion ongoing with Wifey on whether we keep the Christmas decorations up until we come out of lockdown. Why should we take down something that gives us joy in a joyless time?

    She's now singing "I wish it could be Christmas everyday...."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128
    ydoethur said:

    Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.

    Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @Foxy cheers for that.

    I think I need a drink.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    A lockdown of six to eight weeks with the hope of release in late Feb reliant upon the vaccine programme meeting the target of nine million more vaccinations in the next six weeks.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.

    I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
    Yes, that's what I'm hoping for too. It requires officials not to decide that they are doing enough and sit on their laurels.

    --AS
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    UCL scientist on Shagger claiming it was new unforeseeable data that has forced this action - "it clearly isn't true"

    This was foreseeable as far back as November.

    But I genuinely thought they would literally rather people died than admit they were wrong.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Did he say anything about support bubbles?

    No but Sky said still permitted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.

    I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
    Presumably France and other places should start seeing some big increases soon as well.
    Even France should start improving :smile:
  • MaxPB said:

    Why didn't he announce school closures yesterday, millions of kids went back to school resulting in masses of unnecessary household mixing.

    Everything this government does is too late.

    Term starts tomorrow here so I assumed that was the same everywhere. Ludicrous if that’s not the case!
    Term started today. All our primary schools went back today - we rang the school to say our daughter wasn't coming.
  • Did he say anything about support bubbles?

    No, but it was briefed to press beforehand, same as usual rules.
    Cheers.

    I know a few people reliant on their support bubbles.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.

    Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
    To quote Odo; ‘when you give people a choice, sometimes they make the wrong choice.’
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,217
    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer is learning.

    Doing things as simple as this - being interviewed with his country's flag behind him - is exactly the sort of thing he should be doing more of.

    The fact it's triggered unreconstructed metropolitan Lefties like Michael Crick - who thinks it's akin to a BNP rally if there's too many of them - being a clear sign of the problem:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1346153400476573698?s=19

    I'm far from enraged but I'm not impressed. Hope it's a passing phase.
    If you want to regain power you need to be comfortable with Labour making the flag its own.

    This shouldn't be controversial. It represents the country you aspire to govern.

    If you hate it, and the flag that represents it, then why would voters trust you to govern it?
    I don't hate it. It can flutter in the background occasionally. I certainly don't want to see a different country's flag instead. But I do not want to see Starmer wrapping himself in it. And I am not alone. Labour need me and ilk as well as the Red Wall.
    Frankly, where else will you go if Labour does become more overtly patriotic?
    Green. But it is unlikely in a GE. Nevertheless I don't want to be taken for granted.
    Exactly. Unlikely in a GE.

    Would you rather be pure and unfettered by flags, or in power?
    Rather not give up on the notion of egalitarian government untainted by nationalism just at the point when it's needed more than ever.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    UCL scientist on Shagger claiming it was new unforeseeable data that has forced this action - "it clearly isn't true"

    Well quite, this was foreseen about three weeks ago. Brexit distracted the government at the critical moment.
  • Well, that went well *uncorks bottle*
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Churches still open.

    As a practicing Christian I think that is bizarre.

    If we’re locking schools we should be locking churches.
  • RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
  • Shutting down the EPL, haven't they all had it already?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Sky news say no elite sport.....crickey....I think everybody has completed Netflix by now haven't they.

    'Never wrong for long'?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited January 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Churches still open.

    As a practicing Christian I think that is bizarre.

    If we’re locking schools we should be locking churches.

    Are they open for communal worship, sky said something like open for individual worship. They definitely should be closed from holding services etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    I think a single dose will work well enough for "most people" - but the top 4 groups are the top 4 for a reason - they are by definition almost those with the weakest immune systems.
    Really not sure about the half dosing, particularly with Pfizer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Well, that went well *uncorks bottle*

    I think the bottle was uncorked and the genie out some time ago.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
    No way we're down to tier 2 by the end of March. In absolute numbers terms the hospitalisation rate among 18-50 year olds is too high with the new variant. We'll need to make a lot more headway into the over 50s before we can release restrictions to that level, especially since we're working on a 70% immunity basis rather than 95%.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Starmer calling for unity... maybe it's the right play, but can't help but wonder if he just lacks the killer instinct.

    Is he ever going to put the boot in?

    Whip round for a pair of these?


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,217
    edited January 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Why didn't he announce school closures yesterday, millions of kids went back to school resulting in masses of unnecessary household mixing.

    Everything this government does is too late.

    Absolutely bizarre. Even as a Johnsonologist of the highest rank I don't have an answer for you.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited January 2021
    Sky news now saying we fucked up, elite sport not cancelled...repeat not cancelled. Sky news, never wrong for long.
  • HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.

    Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
    No, that would be members of the Conservative Party. When did the British people get a chance to vote for Hunt as their leader?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685

    rcs1000 said:

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.

    I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
    Yes, that's what I'm hoping for too. It requires officials not to decide that they are doing enough and sit on their laurels.

    --AS
    The UK performance on testing has been good after a slow start tbf.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Discussion ongoing with Wifey on whether we keep the Christmas decorations up until we come out of lockdown. Why should we take down something that gives us joy in a joyless time?

    She's now singing "I wish it could be Christmas everyday...."

    I had that conversation today, as well. I was planning to take them down tomorrow, always a sad task, particularly so this year when the family Xmas never happened. Whether I really want to be looking at them thru February is another matter.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected

    SNIP

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.

    In terms of protected, speculative.

    I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.

    https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19

    T cell responses too:

    https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries.

    And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited January 2021
    Jonathan said:
    Perhaps they think in the driving rain and fierce cold of winter we’ll all be out there sorting out our new fences, rockeries and shrubberies?

    Edit - I have no clue what is going on with my autocorrect right now.

    Edited edit - AAAARGHHHHH!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    Sky news now saying we fucked up, elite sport not cancelled...repeat not cancelled. Sky news, never wrong for long.

    Shurely Sky News never right on the night.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.

    I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
    Yes, that's what I'm hoping for too. It requires officials not to decide that they are doing enough and sit on their laurels.

    --AS
    The UK performance on testing has been good after a slow start tbf.
    Yes, I think the same.

    --AS
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Pretty much the only reasons I leave home anyway. Gods I'm boring.
    Is it bad that I only tend to leave home for the top 2 reasons for the last few months? And with online deliveries some months primarily only for the top reason. 🤣
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    @Foxy cheers for that.

    I think I need a drink.

    I am tempted too.

    Our Comms team told us today to expect us to hit 50% bed occupancy of Covid cases in 2 weeks.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    Perhaps they think in the driving rain and fierce cold of winter we’ll all be out there sorting out our new fences, rockeries and sheubberies?
    They’re a honey pot for old farts. Bizarre.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer is learning.

    Doing things as simple as this - being interviewed with his country's flag behind him - is exactly the sort of thing he should be doing more of.

    The fact it's triggered unreconstructed metropolitan Lefties like Michael Crick - who thinks it's akin to a BNP rally if there's too many of them - being a clear sign of the problem:

    https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1346153400476573698?s=19

    I'm far from enraged but I'm not impressed. Hope it's a passing phase.
    If you want to regain power you need to be comfortable with Labour making the flag its own.

    This shouldn't be controversial. It represents the country you aspire to govern.

    If you hate it, and the flag that represents it, then why would voters trust you to govern it?
    I don't hate it. It can flutter in the background occasionally. I certainly don't want to see a different country's flag instead. But I do not want to see Starmer wrapping himself in it. And I am not alone. Labour need me and ilk as well as the Red Wall.
    Frankly, where else will you go if Labour does become more overtly patriotic?
    Green. But it is unlikely in a GE. Nevertheless I don't want to be taken for granted.
    Exactly. Unlikely in a GE.

    Would you rather be pure and unfettered by flags, or in power?
    Rather not give up on the notion of egalitarian government untainted by nationalism just at the point when it's needed more than ever.
    There's a difference between patriotism and nationalism and, besides which, the form and type it takes can vary drastically on a very wide spectrum - Labour used to understand this.

    In any event, you're partly right: Labour won't win without retaining you and your vote. But they also have to gain others too on top - and that includes soft Tories.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,080
    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
    Schools reopening should be a separate first step before tier 3 (aka non-essential shops).

    Do you think the vaccination targets are realistic?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.

    Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
    No, that would be members of the Conservative Party. When did the British people get a chance to vote for Hunt as their leader?
    The polling at the time was quite clear Boris was the best choice to beat Labour

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1021125462335123459?s=20

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Jonathan said:
    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    I imagine if one of them is dying might be considered an ‘extreme circumstance.’
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128

    Jonathan said:
    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    Those where one of the couple is terminally ill
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    As a matter of course, no; in this case, entirely appropriate.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited January 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    I imagine if one of them is dying might be considered an ‘extreme circumstance.’
    Yes, but then that should been phrased differently, really. Allowances for loved ones and illness, etc.
  • Personally, I can't see us out of lockdown until way into March.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Cicero said:

    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.

    If Lewes 2021 goes ahead, I for one will be delighted to see him go up in flames (again).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:
    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    Boris has plans.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    Perhaps they think in the driving rain and fierce cold of winter we’ll all be out there sorting out our new fences, rockeries and shrubberies?

    Edit - I have no clue what is going on with my autocorrect right now.

    Edited edit - AAAARGHHHHH!
    So many more rules to ignore.

    Ridiculous keeping garden centres open but closing outdoor gyms.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:
    Perhaps they think in the driving rain and fierce cold of winter we’ll all be out there sorting out our new fences, rockeries and shrubberies?

    Edit - I have no clue what is going on with my autocorrect right now.

    Edited edit - AAAARGHHHHH!
    Winter is the best time to plant bare rooted trees and shrubs, They do much better than pot raised stock.

    I am planning a bit of that over the next few weeks, if I get a dry spell. Bit too claggy the Leicester clay at the moment.
  • *Reaches at the back of the cupboard for the spirits*

    Here we go again.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
  • If people are being asked to shield like last March, does that mean the food delivery boxes will return? Because those shielding aren't even allowed out to the supermarket.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Cicero said:

    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.

    Didn't you say the same thing last year? And yet somehow the Tories are today polling ten times what the Lib Dems are...
  • Cicero said:

    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.

    Ridiculous statement
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    There are alternative words to use. Continue down this line and political debate will be nothing but personal abuse.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Andy_JS said:
    It'd be funny if lockdown meant he was refused entry.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    There are alternative words to use. Continue down this line and political debate will be nothing but personal abuse.
    RP is rapidly becoming the Ian Dunt of PB
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ydoethur said:

    Well, that went well *uncorks bottle*

    I think the bottle was uncorked and the genie out some time ago.
    Show the cat the way to the dairy.....
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    MaxPB said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
    No way we're down to tier 2 by the end of March. In absolute numbers terms the hospitalisation rate among 18-50 year olds is too high with the new variant. We'll need to make a lot more headway into the over 50s before we can release restrictions to that level, especially since we're working on a 70% immunity basis rather than 95%.
    If the vaccine-generated immunity retards or even prevents transmission, we’ll have 25 million jabbed by then, plus maybe 6 million infection-acquired-immunity amongst the unjabbed. That’s almost 50%, which should reduce the effective R-rate to between a half and two thirds what it would otherwise be at any given level of restrictions. That adds to the equation.
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