Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.
Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.
--AS
Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.
I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
“Liverpool are starting an outfield of three forwards, four attacking midfielders, two attack-minded fullbacks, and one holding midfielder,” notes Paul Done. “Heavy metal football has returned.”
Have the Liverpool coaching team been listening to the KLF releases? The KLF/Extreme Noise Terror rendition of 3am Eternal is Heavy Metal something
On BBC News the other day, one of the headlines was that The KLF had finally let their music available on Spotify. I thought it was probably the least important news I had ever heard on the Beeb - I doubt many people I know could name 3 of their songs, and they were about in our pomp! Weird
I noticed that too.
Is it just me that thinks the singer in 3 a.m. eternal is Claudia Webbe?
Glad someone else did .I consider myself a music anorak, I worked in a record shop in the early 90s, and I think I could name 2 of their songs. Mentioned it to my missus and she'd never heard of them!
28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k 04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k 11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million 18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million 25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million
01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million 08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million 15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million 22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million
01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million 08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million
Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most
15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million 22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million
At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.
29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum
05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million 12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million 19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million 26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum
03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million 10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million 17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million 24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million 31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million (All doses given this week are second doses) 07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million 14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million 21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million 28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million 05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million 12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million 19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million 26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.
02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million ... and that’s almost it, I think.
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario: (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)
Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
SNIP
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.
In terms of protected, speculative.
I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.
28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k 04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k 11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million 18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million 25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million
01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million 08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million 15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million 22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million
01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million 08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million
Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most
15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million 22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million
At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.
29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum
05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million 12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million 19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million 26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum
03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million 10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million 17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million 24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million 31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million (All doses given this week are second doses) 07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million 14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million 21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million 28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million 05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million 12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million 19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million 26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.
02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million ... and that’s almost it, I think.
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
Superb post. Thanks for doing it. Looks plausible, and acceptable.
Amidst announcing a new national lockdown Boris offers some encouragement saying all those over 70 or extremely vulnerable should be offered a vaccine by the end of Feburary.
Boris aims to start to move out of lockdown and downgrade the tiers by the end of February too
Doing things as simple as this - being interviewed with his country's flag behind him - is exactly the sort of thing he should be doing more of.
The fact it's triggered unreconstructed metropolitan Lefties like Michael Crick - who thinks it's akin to a BNP rally if there's too many of them - being a clear sign of the problem:
I commented on the flag when I heard his live broadcast on Sky
FFS , he is totally useless, and people in England immediately think he is good because he puts a flag behind himself. Is it any wonder the UK is F***ed , never mind that you are totally and utterly devoid of any ideas, you have a flag behind you.
It is obvious that no one -- least of all SKS -- tells Drakeford anything.
The disparity between Starmer's proclamations & Drakeford's actions are so glaring that the only explanation is that Labour have completely forgotten that they are running Wales.
Possibly Labour have been running Wales for so long, they just think it is the place where they can mooch around in flip-flops and nothing ever gets done there.
It is very common. OGH was earlier fulminating about the folly of keeping the schools open.
Apparently OGH is unaware that the last LibDem in power anywhere (darling Kirsty) is actually in charge of the Welsh education portfolio, and is busy keeping the schools in Wales open.
I have given up expecting any consistency between what English Labour and LibDem politicians say, and what their representatives in the Welsh Government actually do.
I totally agree and of course Kirsty, the Liberal Democrat, is the one in charge of schools but not for much longer thankfully
Yes, dear, dim Kirsty will be gone, retiring.
She will be going on to do whatever failed LibDems go on to do.
Posting on pb.com, probably.
I think BigG. was alluding to the new Conservative Ed. Sec. in Paul Davies' first cabinet. Not beyond the realms of probability.
Starmer's defeat in Wales will not look good against a resurgent Johnson and the Conservatives nationally, post Brexit, and post vaccine.
Any Labour defeat or more likely seats lost in Wales will be down to Drakeford, as poor performance for SLab in Scotland can be blamed on Leonard, both are Corbynites so not part of the Starmer project.
Starmer however is likely to make gains in England though regardless, for example last time the county council seats were up in 2017 the Tories were 11% ahead, even with Deltapoll's post Deal poll today they are only 5% ahead. Labour are also likely to win big in London in both the Mayoral and Assembly polls
They may not be held in may
It must be within the realms of the possible that the Holyrood elex will be postponed
Having it in the week of the Scotland v England match in the Euros would be ... interesting.
I expect the Euros to be cancelled
Oh for goodness sake BigG, shall we just cancel all human life for this year too and decide to shut ourselves up for the rest of the year already.
If the vaccinations have not significantly reduced the case rate by Spring and lockdowns are still ongoing I expect the level of non compliance will start to rise, especially amongst the young, they are not going to accept being confined to their residences for the rest of their lives. That is especially the case given Covid is a disease of no real threat to the under 50s even in the mutant faster spreading form.
Many, many people think like Big G sadly.
The impact of these lock downs is being felt very, very unevenly.
Some people have lost everything. Others barely affected. Some people have better lives.
I can understand BigG not wanting to go out until Covid is basically eliminated, he is near his 8th decade and that is fair enough, he is being safe.
However for others, especially the young who are more likely to work in hospitality which has been hit hard by lockdown and want to live their lives not be constrained by everlasting lockdowns for a disease of little risk to them then I agree it is a different story
I am one of the lucky ones who is due a vaccine shortly and I am not afraid of going out
However, I practice hands face space religiously unlike many others
In short, your life has barely been disrupted at all by covid. Which is great for you. You seem oblivious to the enormous sacrifices some have made for that to be the case though.
Just moans about their lawbreaking.
Time for you to play your part. We;re reducing your pension payments by ten per cent to help with the huge costs of letting you live as usual. OK?
Greedy gits wanting to rob poor pensioners who worked all their lives for their meagre pensions, skanky pimply youngsters who would faint at having to do a hard days work now want to rob them to compensate their fecklessness. On your bike you halfwit.
Witnessing this outbreak of good-natured cross-generational solidarity is deeply inspiring, malc.
Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.
--AS
Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.
I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
Presumably France and other places should start seeing some big increases soon as well.
Discussion ongoing with Wifey on whether we keep the Christmas decorations up until we come out of lockdown. Why should we take down something that gives us joy in a joyless time?
She's now singing "I wish it could be Christmas everyday...."
Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.
Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
A lockdown of six to eight weeks with the hope of release in late Feb reliant upon the vaccine programme meeting the target of nine million more vaccinations in the next six weeks.
Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.
--AS
Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.
I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
Yes, that's what I'm hoping for too. It requires officials not to decide that they are doing enough and sit on their laurels.
Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.
--AS
Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.
I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
Presumably France and other places should start seeing some big increases soon as well.
Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.
Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
To quote Odo; ‘when you give people a choice, sometimes they make the wrong choice.’
Doing things as simple as this - being interviewed with his country's flag behind him - is exactly the sort of thing he should be doing more of.
The fact it's triggered unreconstructed metropolitan Lefties like Michael Crick - who thinks it's akin to a BNP rally if there's too many of them - being a clear sign of the problem:
I'm far from enraged but I'm not impressed. Hope it's a passing phase.
If you want to regain power you need to be comfortable with Labour making the flag its own.
This shouldn't be controversial. It represents the country you aspire to govern.
If you hate it, and the flag that represents it, then why would voters trust you to govern it?
I don't hate it. It can flutter in the background occasionally. I certainly don't want to see a different country's flag instead. But I do not want to see Starmer wrapping himself in it. And I am not alone. Labour need me and ilk as well as the Red Wall.
Frankly, where else will you go if Labour does become more overtly patriotic?
Green. But it is unlikely in a GE. Nevertheless I don't want to be taken for granted.
Exactly. Unlikely in a GE.
Would you rather be pure and unfettered by flags, or in power?
Rather not give up on the notion of egalitarian government untainted by nationalism just at the point when it's needed more than ever.
I think a single dose will work well enough for "most people" - but the top 4 groups are the top 4 for a reason - they are by definition almost those with the weakest immune systems. Really not sure about the half dosing, particularly with Pfizer.
28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k 04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k 11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million 18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million 25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million
01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million 08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million 15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million 22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million
01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million 08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million
Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most
15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million 22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million
At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.
29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum
05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million 12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million 19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million 26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum
03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million 10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million 17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million 24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million 31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million (All doses given this week are second doses) 07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million 14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million 21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million 28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million 05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million 12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million 19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million 26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.
02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million ... and that’s almost it, I think.
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
No way we're down to tier 2 by the end of March. In absolute numbers terms the hospitalisation rate among 18-50 year olds is too high with the new variant. We'll need to make a lot more headway into the over 50s before we can release restrictions to that level, especially since we're working on a 70% immunity basis rather than 95%.
Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.
Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
No, that would be members of the Conservative Party. When did the British people get a chance to vote for Hunt as their leader?
Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.
--AS
Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.
I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
Yes, that's what I'm hoping for too. It requires officials not to decide that they are doing enough and sit on their laurels.
--AS
The UK performance on testing has been good after a slow start tbf.
Discussion ongoing with Wifey on whether we keep the Christmas decorations up until we come out of lockdown. Why should we take down something that gives us joy in a joyless time?
She's now singing "I wish it could be Christmas everyday...."
I had that conversation today, as well. I was planning to take them down tomorrow, always a sad task, particularly so this year when the family Xmas never happened. Whether I really want to be looking at them thru February is another matter.
Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario: (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)
Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
SNIP
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.
In terms of protected, speculative.
I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.
I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries.
And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.
--AS
Vaccine manufacturing capacity - like mask manufacturing capacity, or testing capacity - will start low and then climb and keep climbing.
I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
Yes, that's what I'm hoping for too. It requires officials not to decide that they are doing enough and sit on their laurels.
--AS
The UK performance on testing has been good after a slow start tbf.
Pretty much the only reasons I leave home anyway. Gods I'm boring.
Is it bad that I only tend to leave home for the top 2 reasons for the last few months? And with online deliveries some months primarily only for the top reason. 🤣
Doing things as simple as this - being interviewed with his country's flag behind him - is exactly the sort of thing he should be doing more of.
The fact it's triggered unreconstructed metropolitan Lefties like Michael Crick - who thinks it's akin to a BNP rally if there's too many of them - being a clear sign of the problem:
I'm far from enraged but I'm not impressed. Hope it's a passing phase.
If you want to regain power you need to be comfortable with Labour making the flag its own.
This shouldn't be controversial. It represents the country you aspire to govern.
If you hate it, and the flag that represents it, then why would voters trust you to govern it?
I don't hate it. It can flutter in the background occasionally. I certainly don't want to see a different country's flag instead. But I do not want to see Starmer wrapping himself in it. And I am not alone. Labour need me and ilk as well as the Red Wall.
Frankly, where else will you go if Labour does become more overtly patriotic?
Green. But it is unlikely in a GE. Nevertheless I don't want to be taken for granted.
Exactly. Unlikely in a GE.
Would you rather be pure and unfettered by flags, or in power?
Rather not give up on the notion of egalitarian government untainted by nationalism just at the point when it's needed more than ever.
There's a difference between patriotism and nationalism and, besides which, the form and type it takes can vary drastically on a very wide spectrum - Labour used to understand this.
In any event, you're partly right: Labour won't win without retaining you and your vote. But they also have to gain others too on top - and that includes soft Tories.
28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k 04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k 11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million 18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million 25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million
01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million 08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million 15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million 22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million
01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million 08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million
Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most
15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million 22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million
At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.
29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum
05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million 12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million 19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million 26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum
03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million 10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million 17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million 24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million 31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million (All doses given this week are second doses) 07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million 14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million 21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million 28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million 05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million 12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million 19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million 26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.
02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million ... and that’s almost it, I think.
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k 04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k 11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million 18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million 25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million
01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million 08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million 15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million 22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million
01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million 08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million
Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most
15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million 22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million
At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.
29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum
05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million 12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million 19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million 26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum
03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million 10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million 17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million 24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million 31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million (All doses given this week are second doses) 07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million 14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million 21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million 28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million 05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million 12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million 19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million 26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.
02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million ... and that’s almost it, I think.
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
Schools reopening should be a separate first step before tier 3 (aka non-essential shops).
Do you think the vaccination targets are realistic?
Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.
Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
No, that would be members of the Conservative Party. When did the British people get a chance to vote for Hunt as their leader?
The polling at the time was quite clear Boris was the best choice to beat Labour
If people are being asked to shield like last March, does that mean the food delivery boxes will return? Because those shielding aren't even allowed out to the supermarket.
Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.
2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ? Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.
Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.
2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k 04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k 11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million 18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million 25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million
01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million 08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million 15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million 22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million
01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million 08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million
Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most
15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million 22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million
At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.
29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum
05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million 12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million 19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million 26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum
03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million 10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million 17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million 24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million 31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million (All doses given this week are second doses) 07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million 14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million 21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million 28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million 05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million 12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million 19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million 26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.
02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million ... and that’s almost it, I think.
Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?
And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
No way we're down to tier 2 by the end of March. In absolute numbers terms the hospitalisation rate among 18-50 year olds is too high with the new variant. We'll need to make a lot more headway into the over 50s before we can release restrictions to that level, especially since we're working on a 70% immunity basis rather than 95%.
If the vaccine-generated immunity retards or even prevents transmission, we’ll have 25 million jabbed by then, plus maybe 6 million infection-acquired-immunity amongst the unjabbed. That’s almost 50%, which should reduce the effective R-rate to between a half and two thirds what it would otherwise be at any given level of restrictions. That adds to the equation.
Comments
I suspect every single week (possibly excluding Easter) will see more vaccines administered than the previous week right through until the late Summer. It'll be a continual build, driven more vaccines and more vaccine manufacturing capability.
In terms of protected, speculative.
I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.
https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19
T cell responses too:
https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19
Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.
*No, I don’t normally watch it, but that was closest channel to the one I was watching showing Johnson’s statement.
She's now singing "I wish it could be Christmas everyday...."
I think I need a drink.
--AS
But I genuinely thought they would literally rather people died than admit they were wrong.
I know a few people reliant on their support bubbles.
As a practicing Christian I think that is bizarre.
If we’re locking schools we should be locking churches.
Really not sure about the half dosing, particularly with Pfizer.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1346188917268221953?s=20
And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
Edit - I have no clue what is going on with my autocorrect right now.
Edited edit - AAAARGHHHHH!
--AS
Our Comms team told us today to expect us to hit 50% bed occupancy of Covid cases in 2 weeks.
In any event, you're partly right: Labour won't win without retaining you and your vote. But they also have to gain others too on top - and that includes soft Tories.
What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
Do you think the vaccination targets are realistic?
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1021125462335123459?s=20
Ridiculous keeping garden centres open but closing outdoor gyms.
I am planning a bit of that over the next few weeks, if I get a dry spell. Bit too claggy the Leicester clay at the moment.
Here we go again.
2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.