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The loneliness of the long-distance leader – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Foxy said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected

    SNIP

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.

    In terms of protected, speculative.

    I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.

    https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19

    T cell responses too:

    https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries.

    And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
    Yes, this really isn't the time to basically run a mass PIII trial experiment with our most vulnerable either. I'd rather we were locked down for longer and dealt with the virus without cutting corners.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    Still no closing the borders....never....shakes head.

    That's because only a tiny share of new cases are linked to international travel. Virtually all are domestic infections. See the ONS stats on the subject.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Foxy said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected

    SNIP

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.

    In terms of protected, speculative.

    I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.

    https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19

    T cell responses too:

    https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries.

    And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
    I wouldn't go as far as that, not until enhanced mutant strains have occurred. Fortunately we should spot them reasonably quickly because of our genomic testing.

    One dose may work well, but it is a hell of a gamble.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    .
    Pulpstar said:

    I think a single dose will work well enough for "most people" - but the top 4 groups are the top 4 for a reason - they are by definition almost those with the weakest immune systems.
    Really not sure about the half dosing, particularly with Pfizer.

    The plan in to give everyone the booster shot as well, within a maximum of twelve weeks:
    ... Everyone will still receive their second dose, but this will now be within 12 weeks of their first.
    The Oxford-AstraZeneca second dose should be given between four and 12 weeks after the first, while the interval between the first and second Pfizer doses should be three to 12 weeks....


    FWIW, scientific opinion seems to be quite divided on the delayed booster policy, but also seems to tilt in favour of what we’re doing.

    My guess (and it is a guess) is that the fears over this are slightly overblown.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2021
    The challenge ahead:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1346191990074077189?s=20

    Friend in Group 6 has been told to expect call in "next couple of weeks".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Andy_JS said:
    Nothing says 'I'm a strong man' more than running away to have a sulk.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    HYUFD said:

    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    Weddings at the summit of Everest?
  • RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Andy_JS said:
    And today the courts ruled mental health issues Trump* criminal acts when it comes to extradition.

    Although I’d like to see him banged up in a five year extradition battle.

    *No pun intended.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries. ...

    I think that’s a bit daft..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    The challenge ahead:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1346191990074077189?s=20

    Friend in Group 6 has been told to expect call in "next couple of weeks".

    Seems in the range of plausible, or missed by a few weeks only.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    Everything in this country has to be directed at producing and delivering vaccines, with the same focus that was applied to the war effort in 1940.

    Sadly, we are already approaching a death toll twice as high as the Blitz. I suspect the economic impact will be comparable too.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected

    SNIP

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.

    In terms of protected, speculative.

    I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.

    https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19

    T cell responses too:

    https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries.

    And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
    I wouldn't go as far as that, not until enhanced mutant strains have occurred. Fortunately we should spot them reasonably quickly because of our genomic testing.

    One dose may work well, but it is a hell of a gamble.
    I think the gamble might be needed. Needs must, and all that. Based on the rises in cases and the current state of hospitals, I am beginning to wonder if collapse is going to happen anyway -- by which I mean triage and refusing to admit older patients, or rationing ICU admission based on (say) age. Do you think this is too pessimistic?

    My heart goes out to the nurses and doctors. What a grim time for you all.

    --AS
  • kle4 said:

    The challenge ahead:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1346191990074077189?s=20

    Friend in Group 6 has been told to expect call in "next couple of weeks".

    Seems in the range of plausible, or missed by a few weeks only.
    Why not say end of March, then if it completed sooner you can claim victory...the Ryan Air approach to scheduling.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I'll take 7.5 million
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    I hope people will be magnanimous - and thank Boris when the Government delivers on this target.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Fishing said:

    Still no closing the borders....never....shakes head.

    That's because only a tiny share of new cases are linked to international travel. Virtually all are domestic infections. See the ONS stats on the subject.
    Quantity isn't the point. A new case of the SA variant (or a worse one) introduced from abroad is potentially as bad as 10,000 domestic transmissions of classic or cockney.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.

    But in reality that is the rate that people need to be vaccinated at to get to half the population having their first jabs by the end of April.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Gaussian said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
    Schools reopening should be a separate first step before tier 3 (aka non-essential shops).

    Do you think the vaccination targets are realistic?
    The school mixing will be a major concern. I don’t know if they’ll gamble on sooner.
    Achievable? Well, 7,000 vaccinators giving 65 jabs each per day (plus whatever support they need) would give over 3 million per week; I think that’s achievable with enough resources.
    If we’re getting a million Pfizer and 2 million Oxford per week, it’s sustainable on the supply front.
    If Novavax and/or J&J come in and get authorised in, say, Feb, it could be accelerated further very feasibly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    I hope people will be magnanimous - and thank Boris when the Government delivers on this target.
    *if* he delivers.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Nigelb said:


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries. ...

    I think that’s a bit daft..
    It's not. If you read those links you'll see why. What this Gov't are doing with the Pfizer vaccination could cause virus variant resistance. It's an off plan use of the vaccine without any basis in clinical trials. Could trash Pfizer. Could trash the world.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Maybe Nandy should speak to her Party Leader who was calling for schools to be open this morning and shut later this afternoon. 🤔

    Anyone who tries to score partisan points over this is a douchebag.

    Our school emailed us over the weekend to say that the plan was to come in to school as normal on Monday but they've already planned for online learning if the plans change.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:
    And today the courts ruled mental health issues Trump* criminal acts when it comes to extradition.

    Although I’d like to see him banged up in a five year extradition battle.

    *No pun intended.
    Maybe he could claim asylum in the Russian Embassy?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    I think a single dose will work well enough for "most people" - but the top 4 groups are the top 4 for a reason - they are by definition almost those with the weakest immune systems.
    Really not sure about the half dosing, particularly with Pfizer.

    The plan in to give everyone the booster shot as well, within a maximum of twelve weeks:
    ... Everyone will still receive their second dose, but this will now be within 12 weeks of their first.
    The Oxford-AstraZeneca second dose should be given between four and 12 weeks after the first, while the interval between the first and second Pfizer doses should be three to 12 weeks....


    FWIW, scientific opinion seems to be quite divided on the delayed booster policy, but also seems to tilt in favour of what we’re doing.

    My guess (and it is a guess) is that the fears over this are slightly overblown.
    Ultimately it depends on whether we want robust science or a shot in the dark. There is no efficacy data for delayed booster Pfizer regimes.

    The AZN study cov002 did have efficacy with a median 84 day gap, so I think not unreasonable to have a 12 week gap for it.

  • Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    The challenge ahead:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1346191990074077189?s=20

    Friend in Group 6 has been told to expect call in "next couple of weeks".

    Seems in the range of plausible, or missed by a few weeks only.
    Why not say end of March, then if it completed sooner you can claim victory...the Ryan Air approach to scheduling.
    Not the way Boris operates, for better and for worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    I hope people will be magnanimous - and thank Boris when the Government delivers on this target.
    Happy to do so. Let's really really hope this is one target he doesn't f*ck up.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:
    And today the courts ruled mental health issues Trump* criminal acts when it comes to extradition.

    Although I’d like to see him banged up in a five year extradition battle.

    *No pun intended.
    Is it the same lengthy extradition process for US citizens though?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Everything in this country has to be directed at producing and delivering vaccines, with the same focus that was applied to the war effort in 1940.

    Sadly, we are already approaching a death toll twice as high as the Blitz. I suspect the economic impact will be comparable too.

    I don't know why the government (in conjunction with other governments) is not incentivising the likes of GSK to manufacture the AZ jab under license. They can certainly manufacture it at Wavre and fill vials at Barnard Castle. Especially considering their vaccine with Sanofi seems to be languishing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:
    And today the courts ruled mental health issues Trump* criminal acts when it comes to extradition.

    Although I’d like to see him banged up in a five year extradition battle.

    *No pun intended.
    Maybe he could claim asylum in the Russian Embassy?
    The Mexican Embassy.

    Then the Mexicans would finally have paid for that wall around him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,601

    I realised who Starmer voice reminds me of now...Gordon Brittas.

    I said this about 6 weeks ago!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    Scott_xP said:

    ...er, because he's feckin' useless?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Cicero said:

    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.

    I'm not so sure actually.

    We British seem to love bad news.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Most schools have been running online learning alongside face to face throughout the last term as they have kids having to self isolate due to exposure. This is not to deflect any criticism from Johnson but to point out that schools have ben doing this now for several months at least.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    HYUFD said:

    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    One of the couple is dying?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Cicero said:

    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.

    I'm not so sure actually.

    We British seem to love bad news.
    As was said in the Crimean War, Britain will muddle through.

    Trouble is, this government is muddled throughout, not muddling through.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    The challenge ahead:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1346191990074077189?s=20

    Friend in Group 6 has been told to expect call in "next couple of weeks".

    I think Mr Burns-Murdoch has counted the first five groups to get to 16.7 million. The first four there add to 13.4 million.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,094
    edited January 2021

    I realised who Starmer voice reminds me of now...Gordon Brittas.

    I said this about 6 weeks ago!!
    It really is...he came on Sky News and I wasn't looking at the screen and it took me back to 90s....Brittas would definitely have knelt for BLM outside the leisure centre.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,080
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Damn, my joke comments about flags are now being tweeted seriously?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    Hmm, so I think that the vaccination "realistic" target (top 4 groups) is about 11.5 million by mid Feb. Not far off Andy Cooke's projection. As long as it continues to accelerate after that, it would be okay, but it needs to be faster in Feb and Mar for it to be safe to release restrictions within hospital capacity.

    --AS

    I think we should consider that the best case scenario.
  • Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    There is no contradiction.

    We need to close schools. It was obvious we would need to do so two weeks ago. We could have spent the last two weeks planning for it, rather than sending kids back to school for a single day just to spread it around a bit more, then change the policy overnight, the day after the PM tried in vain to hold on to it, King Canute like.

    Bizarre incompetence on a deadly issue.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685

    Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    Those are not contradicatory Big_G Both are saying this hsould have been done last week.

    (As is pretty much everyone on here.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Oh, man, they are going to fuck this up, EVEN MORE !!!

    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1346197287345786880
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Actually, it should be the England flag as that is who he was speaking to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:
    Or as they say in Scotland, a generation ago.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected

    SNIP

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.

    In terms of protected, speculative.

    I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.

    https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19

    T cell responses too:

    https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries.

    And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
    I wouldn't go as far as that, not until enhanced mutant strains have occurred. Fortunately we should spot them reasonably quickly because of our genomic testing.

    One dose may work well, but it is a hell of a gamble.
    I think the gamble might be needed. Needs must, and all that. Based on the rises in cases and the current state of hospitals, I am beginning to wonder if collapse is going to happen anyway -- by which I mean triage and refusing to admit older patients, or rationing ICU admission based on (say) age. Do you think this is too pessimistic?

    My heart goes out to the nurses and doctors. What a grim time for you all.

    --AS
    Even if by miracle no further infections occurred, admissions would rise for another week or two, and deaths a week after. That rise is baked in already.

    Is delayed dose a gamble worth taking? Only time will tell, but we should at least recognise it is a gamble.
  • HYUFD said:

    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    Boris has been threatened with a few "extreme circumstance" weddings in his time
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    Everything about Kate Green screams hard-Left polytechnic sociology lecturer.

    He really needs to reshuffle his front bench.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    Lol - 'A hate figure like no other'?

    What are the Lib Dems then?

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346090893330276352
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,479
    Pulpstar said:

    This isn't actually terrible thinking from Shapps

    https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1345736524151861252

    One or two actually in Kent and up toward East Anglia would be a good idea though.

    And vaccinate them at the same time please.
  • Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    There is no contradiction.

    We need to close schools. It was obvious we would need to do so two weeks ago. We could have spent the last two weeks planning for it, rather than sending kids back to school for a single day just to spread it around a bit more, then change the policy overnight, the day after the PM tried in vain to hold on to it, King Canute like.

    Bizarre incompetence on a deadly issue.
    And how do you account for Wales having children back today and even now schools are only closed to 18th January
  • Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    Everything about Kate Green screams hard-Left polytechnic sociology lecturer.

    He really needs to reshuffle his front bench.
    Or AI ethics lecturer......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh, man, they are going to fuck this up, EVEN MORE !!!

    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1346197287345786880

    Why bother to speak to Ofqual? They don’t have a clue. A smarter move would be to reach out to the Russell Group, see what they suggest.
  • Surely the government should start mass producing lots of hot broth whilst we wait for the nation to be vaccinated.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    tlg86 said:

    Actually, it should be the England flag as that is who he was speaking to.
    Good to see the traditional Guardian language mash-up in good form ... :smile:
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    Evening all :)

    3 million over 80, a further 9 million between 65 and 80 and a further 12 million between 50 and 65 so 24 million by age (plus other considered vulnerable, care home workers, carers and others).

    What kind of take up are we assuming? 80% overall so that's 20 million vaccinations.

    At 2 million per week, all done by mid-March - we'll see.

    You can't argue the Government haven't had time to prepare and plan for this, to put the logistics and the communications in place to ensure this is as quick and effective as possible.

    Tonight's announcements no great surprise after the awful case numbers though perhaps, just perhaps, some signs of optimism on the number of fatalities. As I live in Tier 4 already, not much change for me. It's nowhere near March lockdown for all the hype - back then, the important things in life (well my life not anyone else's) were taken - the takeaway and horse racing.

    For those who go on about keeping sport going, I'd argue horse racing has done a lot to maintain mental health. It's entertainment (unlike soccer) and gives people something positive to look forward to (unlike rugby).

    Cheltenham expecting to be behind closed doors but I'm hopeful I'll be able to go back on track by midsummer.
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Or as they say in Scotland, a generation ago.
    Quebec had referendums 15 years apart - 1980 and 1995.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected

    SNIP

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    In terms of numbers, plausible, and time will tell.

    In terms of protected, speculative.

    I have met 2 Health Care Workers now who have tested positive 2 weeks after the first Pfizer dose, and the antibody levels are quite poor after just 1 dose.

    https://twitter.com/EJohnWherry/status/1346130823213408256?s=19

    T cell responses too:

    https://twitter.com/PatelOncology/status/1345809119865753600?s=19


    I think Pfizer should refuse to supply any more vaccines to the UK. Either we stick to the clinically tested method or we don't get deliveries.

    And the WHO should step in to isolate the UK immediately from the rest of the world. Why? Precisely because by suppressing immunity we risk infusing the world with more deadly vaccine-resistant variants.
    I wouldn't go as far as that, not until enhanced mutant strains have occurred. Fortunately we should spot them reasonably quickly because of our genomic testing.

    One dose may work well, but it is a hell of a gamble.
    I think the gamble might be needed. Needs must, and all that. Based on the rises in cases and the current state of hospitals, I am beginning to wonder if collapse is going to happen anyway -- by which I mean triage and refusing to admit older patients, or rationing ICU admission based on (say) age. Do you think this is too pessimistic?

    My heart goes out to the nurses and doctors. What a grim time for you all.

    --AS
    Even if by miracle no further infections occurred, admissions would rise for another week or two, and deaths a week after. That rise is baked in already.

    Is delayed dose a gamble worth taking? Only time will tell, but we should at least recognise it is a gamble.
    Yes, I know, that's what I mean. Will hospitals cope with admissions rising for another week or two? Let alone rising infections. If they won't, or if infections will not slow very much (it takes a while for intra-household infections to work through even after lockdown begins) then gambling is probably necessary.

    --AS
  • Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    There is no contradiction.

    We need to close schools. It was obvious we would need to do so two weeks ago. We could have spent the last two weeks planning for it, rather than sending kids back to school for a single day just to spread it around a bit more, then change the policy overnight, the day after the PM tried in vain to hold on to it, King Canute like.

    Bizarre incompetence on a deadly issue.
    And how do you account for Wales having children back today and even now schools are only closed to 18th January
    I am not Welsh and certainly not part of the Welsh government. Wales chose devolution which is fine, but expecting people outside of Wales to account for Welsh govt actions does not make sense to me.
  • HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    Just like Rob you defend literally anything and everything. Has just killed another few thousand by opening schools for a day? Doesn't matter, half of them won't have voted Tory and therefore are irrelevant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    There is no contradiction.

    We need to close schools. It was obvious we would need to do so two weeks ago. We could have spent the last two weeks planning for it, rather than sending kids back to school for a single day just to spread it around a bit more, then change the policy overnight, the day after the PM tried in vain to hold on to it, King Canute like.

    Bizarre incompetence on a deadly issue.
    And how do you account for Wales having children back today and even now schools are only closed to 18th January
    There are certain advantages in Wales. Their schools tend to be a bit smaller, and more widely scattered. In my experience, they are also somewhat better built.

    However, I rather fear that Drakeford and Williams will be changing tack soon enough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
  • Cicero said:

    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.

    I'm not so sure actually.

    We British seem to love bad news.
    This poll confirms overwhelming support for lockdown

    I am not expecting a fall in HMG approval ratings to be honest after this announcement

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1346125602131243009?s=19
  • Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    Got to say that in spite of being a Brexit supporter (and not of the Farage wing) I can't disagree with this. Johnson simply isn't up to being PM. I don't even feel dislike for him in terms of being opposed to him. I just have contempt for him.

    I hope he gets this right this time. Not for his sake but for the people whose lives will be saved by actually hitting these targets. But I have no faith that, if left down to him and his Government, he will actually succeed.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Jonathan said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Starmer calling for unity... maybe it's the right play, but can't help but wonder if he just lacks the killer instinct.

    Is he ever going to put the boot in?

    That’s for others to do. Kiers job is to do exactly what he did.

    Could be.
    Who else is doing it though?

    If the shoe was on the other foot, we would be waist deep in Tory shadow cabinet members generating tabloid headlines kicking Labour.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jeremy Hunt is so much more impressive than Boris Johnson.

    Jeremy Hunt is a failed Tory leadership contender not our duly elected PM with a majority of 80 no matter how impressive he may be, the British people chose Boris to lead them
    No, they didn't. A minority, counting tyhe children, dements, and DKs against him in your usual manner. But then we have to deduct thoise Nirish who don't considerr themselves British.

    Be precise. Say "UK voters who actually voted."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Or as they say in Scotland, a generation ago.
    Quebec had referendums 15 years apart - 1980 and 1995.
    But in Scotland, it’s every time there’s a need to distract attention a material change in circumstances.

    Which apparently has happened since yesterday.
  • IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    That's not going to wash with the media.
  • RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Focus on getting needles in as many arms as possible has to be the focus that consumes this government. Unless we are smashing past 2m a week towards 3m a week in the timeframe he has given then lockdown will need to go on and on.

    He still has the ability to rescue some credibility and credit from the ongoing deadly fiasco - get us immunised.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Cicero said:

    Johnson has blown it. That was a new low even by his abject standards. When the lock down is over he will be burned in effigy.

    I'm not so sure actually.

    We British seem to love bad news.
    This poll confirms overwhelming support for lockdown

    I am not expecting a fall in HMG approval ratings to be honest after this announcement

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1346125602131243009?s=19
    I expect plenty of people had a mini blowout over christmas/new year and now realise it's time to restart lockdown... like the diet !
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    After today one has to come to the inevitable conclusion that HMG and the Loyal Opposition are total toss pots.

    End of message.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    I think a single dose will work well enough for "most people" - but the top 4 groups are the top 4 for a reason - they are by definition almost those with the weakest immune systems.
    Really not sure about the half dosing, particularly with Pfizer.

    The plan in to give everyone the booster shot as well, within a maximum of twelve weeks:
    ... Everyone will still receive their second dose, but this will now be within 12 weeks of their first.
    The Oxford-AstraZeneca second dose should be given between four and 12 weeks after the first, while the interval between the first and second Pfizer doses should be three to 12 weeks....


    FWIW, scientific opinion seems to be quite divided on the delayed booster policy, but also seems to tilt in favour of what we’re doing.

    My guess (and it is a guess) is that the fears over this are slightly overblown.
    Ultimately it depends on whether we want robust science or a shot in the dark. There is no efficacy data for delayed booster Pfizer regimes.

    The AZN study cov002 did have efficacy with a median 84 day gap, so I think not unreasonable to have a 12 week gap for it.

    It’s not entirely a shot in the dark, given what we know of antibody maturation timescales, and the very significant drop in rates of infection between wk.2 and wk.3 after the first shot in the Pfizer trial.

    And we could fairly quickly render it less so if we adopted this suggestion.
    https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/04/stop-debating-first-shot-vs-set-aside-hospitals-should-compare-them/
  • Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    You're absolutely delusional. You're right he is associated with Brexit ... And it won him the landslide majority for his troubles.

    The amount of people who hate him now who didn't 12 months ago is a negligible percent.

    There will be people who respect Starmer who didn't respect Corbyn. Or who don't like how the Government has handled the pandemic etc ... But that isn't hate.

    You are expressing hatred - but that baleful emotion was in your heart twelve months ago too.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    HYUFD said:

    What are weddings in extreme circumstances ? Shotgun weddings ?
    Where one or both participants is seriously ill and may die.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128
    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.

    Boris has delivered Brexit with a Deal and is now rolling out the vaccinations faster than any other European country and as BluestBlue has correctly pointed out in the latest poll today still has a comfortable 5% poll lead after 10 years of the Tories in power.

    You may have had enough, the country clearly has not
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    JACK_W said:

    After today one has to come to the inevitable conclusion that HMG and the Loyal Opposition are total toss pots.

    End of message.

    Nah, that was TM's No 10...

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1346139570451185666
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Focus on getting needles in as many arms as possible has to be the focus that consumes this government. Unless we are smashing past 2m a week towards 3m a week in the timeframe he has given then lockdown will need to go on and on.

    He still has the ability to rescue some credibility and credit from the ongoing deadly fiasco - get us immunised.
    I expect Johnson to be overseeing this night and day. Total and utter focus.

    If I see him in a photoshoot in the NWest in a f*cking hi-viz jacket at a building site I will scream.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    On the plus side, closing schools should cut the transmission rates - people definitely take the whole staying at home thing more seriously when the schools are shut.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    That's not going to wash with the media.
    Neither did claiming tests sent out and not returned as ‘tests done’, but they tried it nevertheless.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,882
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year when Boris got a Tory majority of 80 to be PM. Your opinion is therefore irrelevant, whatever he does you will despise him however he has a mandate regardless and is taking the appropriate measures on the lockdown and the vaccinations
    You don´t get it do you HYFUD?
    In one year Johnson has become a hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher. She was disliked but respected as competent (all too competent in fact). Johnson is a PR bullshitter.
    Johnson is personally responsible for Brexit like no other figure. His vacuous indecisiveness is the major problem in the Covid crisis. He leads a cabinet of utter nonentities that he has personally chosen.
    His personal life is a mess... and spraying bastards around is not the sign of mature man, still less a leader.
    He is loathed as a man and as a political figure.
    I confidently predict that he will reach negative polling numbers never seen by any PM in modern times and even you will be talking about that perennial Tory self indulgence, yet another leadership challenge.
    The country has already had enough. Another balls up, another dose of sleaze and people will be putting bricks in Tory windows.
    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.

    Boris has delivered Brexit with a Deal and is now rolling out the vaccinations faster than any other European country and as BluestBlue has correctly pointed out in the latest poll today still has a comfortable 5% poll lead after 10 years of the Tories in power.

    You may have had enough, the country clearly has not
    [deleted]
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Note the wriggle room in the wording of our target - which is that people will have been offered the vaccine by mid February, not necessarily actually had it. If the programme is running late they can claim a technical achievement simply by offering slots days or weeks in advance.
    That's not going to wash with the media.
    If someone refuses it we should move swiftly on to the next person. We can't hang around for people to think about it.
  • RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Like people actually believe something Johnson promises or sets as a target.
    Shall we have a sweep on here for the actual number by Feb 14th?
    I expect we'll be doing <2 million this week and next couple of weeks, with lots of media hysteria, but >2 million by the end of the month and closer to 3 million by middle of February.

    2 million should be a staging post not a target. The more the better.
    Oh god. The media are solely going to be focusing on the number, aren't they. Without any regard as to whether they are being used effectively. Testing all over again.
    Not necessarily a bad thing in the circumstances actually.

    Better to set a target of 14 million by 14 February, than 2 million per week by then; it means any let up early on is pressured to be caught up later on - and increasing capacity and delivery over and above 2 million per week is so much the better.

    In contrast the French have set a target of 1 million by 31 January.
    Focus on getting needles in as many arms as possible has to be the focus that consumes this government. Unless we are smashing past 2m a week towards 3m a week in the timeframe he has given then lockdown will need to go on and on.

    He still has the ability to rescue some credibility and credit from the ongoing deadly fiasco - get us immunised.
    It is the only endgame.

    People don't remember the drama at the start or middle so much as they remember the end. If he can get us immunised well ahead of the curve he will come out of this whole sorry pandemic with some deserved credit.
  • Its not an either/or. Labour are useless too. However Labour aren't in government.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    MaxPB said:

    Trying to run through a plausible vaccination scenario:
    (Assuming “Protected = Vaccinated two weeks earlier)

    Week : Vaccines given : Vaccinated : Protected
    14/12-20/12 : +300,000 : 300,000 : 0
    21/12-27/12 : +600,000 : 900,000 : 0

    28/12-03/01 : +500,000 : 1,400,000 : 300k
    04/01-10/01 : +1,200,000 : 2.6 million : 900k
    11/01-17/01 : +1,500,000 : 4.1 million : 1.4 million
    18/01-24/01 : +1,800,000 : 5.9 million : 2.6 million
    25/01-31/01 : +2,100,000 : 7.0 million : 4.1 million

    01/02-07/02 : +2,250,000 : 9.25 million : 5.9 million
    08/02-14/02 : +2,400,000 : 11.65 million : 7.0 million
    15/02-21/02 : +2,550,000 : 14.2 million : 9.25 million
    22/02-28/02 : +2,700,000 : 16.9 million : 11.65 million

    01/03-07/03 : +2,850,000 : 19.75 million : 14.2 million
    08/03-14/03 : +3,000,000 : 22.75 million : 16.9 million

    Restrictions reduced to Level 3 at most

    15/03-21/03 : +3,00,000 : 25.75 million : 19.75 million
    22/03-28/03 : +3,00,000 : 28.75 million : 22.75 million

    At this point, the second jabs have to be given. The new first jabs are therefore the total (levelling at 3.3 million) minus the number of second jabs needed.

    29/03-04/04 : +1.8 million : 30.55 million : 25.75 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 2 maximum

    05/04-11/04 : +1.5 million : 33.05 million : 28.75 million
    12/04-18/04 : +1.2 million : 34.25 million : 30.55 million
    19/04-25/04 : +0.9 million : 35.15 million : 33.05 million
    26/04-02/05 : +0.75 million : 35.9 million : 34.25 million
    Restrictions lifted to Tier 1 maximum

    03/05-09/05 : +0.6 million : 36.5 million : 35.15 million
    10/05-16/05 : +0.45 million : 36.95 million : 35.9 million
    17/05-23/05 : +0.3 million : 37.25 million : 36.5 million
    24/05-30/05 : +0.15 million : 37.4 million : 36.95 million
    31/05-06/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.25 million
    (All doses given this week are second doses)
    07/06-13/06 : +0.0 million : 37.4 million : 37.4 million
    14/06-20/06 : +0.0 million
    21/06-27/06 : +1.2 million : 38.6 million : 37.4 million
    28/06-04/07 : +1.5 million : 40.1 million : 37.4 million
    05/07-11/07 : +1.8 million : 41.9 million : 38.6 million
    12/07-18/07 : +2.1 million : 44 million : 40.1 million
    19/07-25/07 : +2.25 million : 46.25 million : 41.9 million
    26/07-01/08 : +2.4 million : 48.65 million : 44 million
    Herd immunity achieved. All restrictions lifted.

    02/08-08/08 : +2.55 million : 51.2 million : 46.25 million
    ... and that’s almost it, I think.

    Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?

    And Boris just told us that we’d be looking at Groups 1-4 by the middle of February. That’s about 14 million, I think, so if anything, he’s aiming to get that a week earlier. So maybe 10-15% faster, which is welcome. So Restrictions start to lift first week in March, down to a max of Tier 2 by last week in March, and to a max of Tier 1 by mid April. Herd immunity by early July?
    No way we're down to tier 2 by the end of March. In absolute numbers terms the hospitalisation rate among 18-50 year olds is too high with the new variant. We'll need to make a lot more headway into the over 50s before we can release restrictions to that level, especially since we're working on a 70% immunity basis rather than 95%.
    If the vaccine-generated immunity retards or even prevents transmission, we’ll have 25 million jabbed by then, plus maybe 6 million infection-acquired-immunity amongst the unjabbed. That’s almost 50%, which should reduce the effective R-rate to between a half and two thirds what it would otherwise be at any given level of restrictions. That adds to the equation.
    Fair point, is there a published figure for the ‘infected and recovered’ group?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Scott_xP said:
    And this from the shadow education secretary

    Labour are all contradiction themselves

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1346036528288587776?s=19
    There is no contradiction.

    We need to close schools. It was obvious we would need to do so two weeks ago. We could have spent the last two weeks planning for it, rather than sending kids back to school for a single day just to spread it around a bit more, then change the policy overnight, the day after the PM tried in vain to hold on to it, King Canute like.

    Bizarre incompetence on a deadly issue.
    And how do you account for Wales having children back today and even now schools are only closed to 18th January
    I am not Welsh and certainly not part of the Welsh government. Wales chose devolution which is fine, but expecting people outside of Wales to account for Welsh govt actions does not make sense to me.
    True.

    But, it is reasonable to point out that Wales -- run by a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition -- made exactly the same mistake as the Tory Government over school openings.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    HYUFD said:


    'A hate figure like no other PM in my lifetime, including Margaret Thatcher.'

    For you leftwingers of course because Boris crushed you last year with the biggest majority any Tory leader has achieved since Thatcher equally crushed you in the 1980s.

    Boris has delivered Brexit with a Deal and is now rolling out the vaccinations faster than any other European country and as BluestBlue has correctly pointed out in the latest poll today still has a comfortable 5% poll lead after 10 years of the Tories in power.

    You may have had enough, the country clearly has not

    All valid of course and entirely possible we could see Conservative Government until the end of the decade.

    I suspect when the tide turns it will turn suddenly and decisively as it did in the mid-90s. I don't know how and when it will happen but I'm sure it will and you'll be in Opposition again one day.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Starmer was better tonight in response to PM's announcement.
  • HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did the fucker almost corpse up halfway through that ?
    Would explain the deeply phoney effort at serious-face at the end.

    Is language like that really necessary? It really lowers the level of discourse.
    He is a fucker. Figuratively and literally. You may will be willing to excuse him screwing this up every single time, we aren't.
    You did not vote Tory last year
    You did not vote to LEAVE in 2016. You wanted REMAIN to win!
This discussion has been closed.