My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.
If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.
I'll happily bet with you - proceeds to PB funds.
But what is the bet? Odds may vary!
"UK government (England) to not introduce further curtailment of school hours"?
"UK government (England) to not indefinitely close any schools for covid reasons"?
There has to be a timeline too.
You choose the terms - at evens, and then I'll choose the side. Fair enough?
I'll happily also give a tenner to PB funds anyway so that I in fact can't win, and I've seen the state of Mike's suits.
These tricky definitions were of course discussed a day or so ago by Mr Meeks.
Make the best definition you can of the bet.
The bet I am offering is that the government will not announce any closure of schools or reduction in those permitted to attend prior to the 15th Jan, although @rkrkrk suggests 1st Feb.
So a tenner then on your terms?
Loser just pays a tenner to PB?
(Let's narrow it down to the government in Westminster to make it clearer anyway, and in your favour)
The bet is sealed assuming you agree as to the above. I'll also agree to you being the arbiter of win/lose.
It'll be interesting to see what the wrinkles might be on 15th Jan.
I’ll accept that, separately from the bet I’m negotiating with @rkrkrk, but if you want to come in on whatever we agree later you’re welcome to as far as I’m concerned.
Sure - it's just about the fun and the difficulty of framing the bet.
If that's true then it should mean we can still get imports into the country, so that oughtn't necessarily to affect the vaccine shipments.
Anybody exporting by container ought also to be fine. Don't know about air cargo - if the pilots don't need to disembark at their destination and they turn around and come straight back then hopefully that should remain open too. But that's the end of road traffic to the Continent for the time being. Even if the Dutch and Belgian ports remain open for truckers, demand would presumably massively outstrip supply.
But if France is blocking imports starting tonight, for 48 hours, it will surely jam up the ports as much of the traffic will already be on its way.
This is a major crisis, no doubt.
It really is as it will not only affect French imports but Spanish. Italian and most of all Irish freight through Holyhead
I suspect they'll refine it down to a 0.4 to 0.6 zone over the next few weeks.
Seeing as SeanT isn't here I'll do the conspiracy - he could add a sequel to his book here: Chinese agent flies into London from Beijing and drops an extra mutant variant in a few cafes and pubs as "revenge" for the UK's stance on Hong Kong and leading of Western Government opinion against the CCP.
Boris’ government had better be right that we have a deadly mutated COVID gonerampant here and are number 1 threat to the world, and it wasn’t just a clever wheeze to get them through a difficult u turn after taking breaks off 2.0 too much.
In around June I wrote of the worst case being the UK COVID peak being in New Year, being worse than the neighbours and causing France to blockade us, as a bad no deal Brexit meant there was no reason to keep us sweet.
I soon managed to Google a memorandum of understanding between France and us pledging to protect transport between the two countries, and suggested that WAS the Brexit deal. Whence that?
And this is worse still, COVID has apparently worsened in its very nature, and is most specifically targeting Kent whose numbers means it teeters on an NHS overwhelm situation in the next fortnight (is the Nightingale being stood back up in London yet?) just as no deal hits in the very same location, and precisely where very large camps of transient workers are due to set up in almost certainly poor conditions.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
In other news, Wetherspoons have put on quite a spectacle in Morpeth, Northumberland.
Similar in the Milecastle Spoons window in Toon on Thursday. Won't be going ever again.
Also up on the windows of the closed Spoons in the Barking Road. I note two articles cited from the Daily Mail (so it must be true) last month.
When the Conservatives schism between the loyalists and the anti-Lockdown mob led by Farage, I presume the latter will be hoping to hold their unmasked non-distanced meetings in the local Spoons at a heavily discounted rate?
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
Specifically, Johnson is a procrastinating risk-taker. Which is a contradiction, and definitely not a good combination in a leader.
He doesn't go all-in on a strategy that could win big, nor is he steady-as-you-go-we-will-get-there-in-the-end. Instead you end up with chaos to no effect.
Except for his strategy and execution for the election. That was a masterclass. But governing - no. Piss poor on every level.
My youngest is stressed about attending school. Every week, he hears of pupils and their families testing positive and is worried about infecting his parents. His mental health has noticeably improved since they broke up. The idea schools are open for the sake of kids' mental health is another lazy assertion which ought to be challenged. For some it will be good, some bad.
Absolutely. There's a lot of "everyone knows" assumptions about lockdowns that actual studies don't back up.
Children's mental health is one of them. "Everyone knows" that it was devastaing for children's mental well being. The studies done say children's mental health actually improved markedly.
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
To be honest, it is difficult to believe that the speed which this thing seems to be spreading in London can be anything other than the "new strain" theory. (unless there has been an enormous ramping up of testing. The acceleration has been incredibly sudden.
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.
If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.
I'll happily bet with you - proceeds to PB funds.
But what is the bet? Odds may vary!
"UK government (England) to not introduce further curtailment of school hours"?
"UK government (England) to not indefinitely close any schools for covid reasons"?
There has to be a timeline too.
You choose the terms - at evens, and then I'll choose the side. Fair enough?
I'll happily also give a tenner to PB funds anyway so that I in fact can't win, and I've seen the state of Mike's suits.
These tricky definitions were of course discussed a day or so ago by Mr Meeks.
Make the best definition you can of the bet.
The bet I am offering is that the government will not announce any closure of schools or reduction in those permitted to attend prior to the 15th Jan, although @rkrkrk suggests 1st Feb.
So a tenner then on your terms?
Loser just pays a tenner to PB?
(Let's narrow it down to the government in Westminster to make it clearer anyway, and in your favour)
The bet is sealed assuming you agree as to the above. I'll also agree to you being the arbiter of win/lose.
It'll be interesting to see what the wrinkles might be on 15th Jan.
I’ll accept that, separately from the bet I’m negotiating with @rkrkrk, but if you want to come in on whatever we agree later you’re welcome to as far as I’m concerned.
Sure - it's just about the fun and the difficulty of framing the bet.
And the endless bragging rights.
If the government lock down schools, you’re welcome to the bragging rights.
I’ve seen them fight to keep them open long past the point of reason, and refuse to even consider flexibility on key points like exams. I am increasingly convinced the only way schools will be shut down and the disease contained is if teachers strike. But I doubt if many could afford to strike for a whole month, even if they wanted to (which we wouldn’t).
Given the number of French in London, there has to be a decent chance it’s too late anyway. It’s almost certainly made it to France already.
Well no, because all the key French are in London. Imagining that they may communicate with those still stranded in France is ridiculous. You clearly don't understand the French! Mon Dieu!
It's not so likely that the new strain evolved in the UK anyway. Far more likely it originated elsewhere (simply by numbers of cases)
I suspect they'll refine it down to a 0.4 to 0.6 zone over the next few weeks.
Seeing as SeanT isn't here I'll do the conspiracy - he could add a sequel to his book here: Chinese agent flies into London from Beijing and drops an extra mutant variant in a few cafes and pubs as "revenge" for the UK's stance on Hong Kong and leading of Western Government opinion against the CCP.
Don’t forget, EU, who won’t sign a trade deal with us are on verge of signing one with China.
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
It does look as if hubris has come back to bite us on the arse, after boasting that Britain was having a less damaging second wave than the continental mainland.
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
The fact that the suggestion is being made is itself interesting to me (and a lot of other posters by the look of it). I don't think Scott is endorsing it.
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
Come off it. Have you seen the utter drivel that contrarian posts?
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Given the number of French in London, there has to be a decent chance it’s too late anyway. It’s almost certainly made it to France already.
Well no, because all the key French are in London. Imagining that they may communicate with those still stranded in France is ridiculous. You clearly don't understand the French! Mon Dieu!
It's not so likely that the new strain evolved in the UK anyway. Far more likely it originated elsewhere (simply by numbers of cases)
But we will be lumbered with it just as Spain was lumbered with Spanish flu.
Given the number of French in London, there has to be a decent chance it’s too late anyway. It’s almost certainly made it to France already.
Well no, because all the key French are in London. Imagining that they may communicate with those still stranded in France is ridiculous. You clearly don't understand the French! Mon Dieu!
It's not so likely that the new strain evolved in the UK anyway. Far more likely it originated elsewhere (simply by numbers of cases)
Maybe we'll discover that the few weeks when French cases went through the roof (maxing out at around 90k from memory) was a version of this. Hopefully so, because it might suggest that it can burn out very quickly.
Then again, the french responded with a return to Max lockdown (which was harsher than what we ever had). We've still go people mingling about drinking takeway pub beers. Sorry "exercising".
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Nervtag made it up?
Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Nervtag made it up?
Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
The charge wouldn't be making it up, just selective emphasis. At the moment that looks unlikely, because of rapidly rising cases and an apparent change in the pattern of the disease, but depending on how things develop it shouldn't be taboo, either.
Somebody will need to explain to me how it can add a constant value to R. Surely there's a different increase when spreading freely or when under lockdown. The 70% increase on R seems more plausible.
In any case, it's the exponential growth during lockdown light I find the most scary bit in that article. We haven't got much more than shutting the schools left in the armoury.
I would guess they mean to base value of the R value, which is what ~3-4 for COVID.
I don't think that would justify the panic. Maybe it's 0.4 on top of whatever it was supposed to be for the lockdown, turning 0.8 into 1.2 or something like that, which would justify panic stations.
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Nervtag made it up?
Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
The charge wouldn't be making up, just selective emphasis. At the moment that looks unlikely, because of rapidly rising cases, but depending on how things develop it shouldn't be taboo, either.
Isn't the evidence presented in the meetings of that committee? I don't see how anyone could suggest they were making it up, or using selective emphasis. If anything, they are underplaying how significant this is given their usage of the lower estimate for the increase to R.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
The fact that the suggestion is being made is itself interesting to me (and a lot of other posters by the look of it). I don't think Scott is endorsing it.
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
Of course he is endorsing it. Scott only ever posts tweets that are in line with his views. Thing is I actually agree with some of his views but even I find him tedious and pointless.
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Nervtag made it up?
Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
The charge wouldn't be making up, just selective emphasis. At the moment that looks unlikely, because of rapidly rising cases, but depending on how things develop it shouldn't be taboo, either.
Isn't the evidence presented in the meetings of that committee? I don't see how anyone could suggest they were making it up, or using selective emphasis. If anything, they are underplaying how significant this is given their usage of the lower estimate for the increase to R.
But again, the charge wouldn't be making it up, just emphasising a particular facet of the crisis partly as cover for reversing policies.
To be clear, I'm not saying his has happened, but I don't think it should be banned from discussion, either, however the disease is developing - and it is undeniably spreading faster.
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
Come off it. Have you seen the utter drivel that contrarian posts?
Contrarian is ... err, contrarian.
Contrarian would be correct if the time taken to make & distribute the vaccine was ∞
If the Lorries aren't allowed into France Ireland Italy etc then surely they will not be coming back loaded with freight. Shortages incoming but nothing else
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Our problem is that BoZo is not just an untrustworthy liar, but that he is a jinxed untrustworthy liar. The man is a total shit magnet, who deflects the turds at us with a giant fan.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Because it is fake news and you posted it
Not sure why you are surprised. That is Scott's whole raison d'etre.
We all know his anti brexit stance but to endorse a tweet virtually mocking our scientists in this crisis of all crisis shows he has lost all balance and even common sense
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Nervtag made it up?
Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
The charge wouldn't be making up, just selective emphasis. At the moment that looks unlikely, because of rapidly rising cases, but depending on how things develop it shouldn't be taboo, either.
Isn't the evidence presented in the meetings of that committee? I don't see how anyone could suggest they were making it up, or using selective emphasis. If anything, they are underplaying how significant this is given their usage of the lower estimate for the increase to R.
But again, the charge wouldn't be making it up. It would be emphasising a particular facet of the crisis as a cover for reversing policies.
To be clear, I'm not saying his has happened, but I don't think it should be banned as a possibility, either, however the disease is developing - and it is undeniably spreading faster.
So they are suggesting that had the government not been incompetent in the past, they wouldn't have imposed tighter restrictions after an outbreak of a variant that was far more transmissible? I don't buy it.
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
Come off it. Have you seen the utter drivel that contrarian posts?
Contrarian is ... err, contrarian.
Contrarian would be correct if the time taken to make & distribute the vaccine was ∞
Contrarian would be correct if evolution was false and the Titanic was really Olympic.
If the Lorries aren't allowed into France Ireland Italy etc then surely they will not be coming back loaded with freight. Shortages incoming but nothing else
What proportion of lorry drivers would be British/Irish and what from the continent? Given that the latter look like they might be stuck here for the foreseeable?
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
Come off it. Have you seen the utter drivel that contrarian posts?
Contrarian is ... err, contrarian.
Contrarian would be correct if the time taken to make & distribute the vaccine was ∞
Really? I have always found him to be tiresomly predictable, like Toby Young.
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
The fact that the suggestion is being made is itself interesting to me (and a lot of other posters by the look of it). I don't think Scott is endorsing it.
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
Of course he is endorsing it. Scott only ever posts tweets that are in line with his views. Thing is I actually agree with some of his views but even I find him tedious and pointless.
One presumes he dumps all of his feed on here because he doesn't get enough attention over on Twitter.
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
The fact that the suggestion is being made is itself interesting to me (and a lot of other posters by the look of it). I don't think Scott is endorsing it.
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
Of course he is endorsing it. Scott only ever posts tweets that are in line with his views. Thing is I actually agree with some of his views but even I find him tedious and pointless.
Yeah, you're rubbish Mr Tyndall
If I throw a scattergun of views at you, you're bound to agree with one of them...
(Oddly this seems intoxicatingly condemning, although in reality nothing of the sort)
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
Come off it. Have you seen the utter drivel that contrarian posts?
Contrarian is ... err, contrarian.
Contrarian would be correct if the time taken to make & distribute the vaccine was ∞
Contrarian would be correct if evolution was false and the Titanic was really Olympic.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
The implication being that the British general approach has made the strain worse, where other similar strains have existed and do exist but have been stamped down upon harder?
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
Somebody will need to explain to me how it can add a constant value to R. Surely there's a different increase when spreading freely or when under lockdown. The 70% increase on R seems more plausible.
In any case, it's the exponential growth during lockdown light I find the most scary bit in that article. We haven't got much more than shutting the schools left in the armoury.
I would guess they mean to base value of the R value, which is what ~3-4 for COVID.
I don't think that would justify the panic. Maybe it's 0.4 on top of whatever it was supposed to be for the lockdown, turning 0.8 into 1.2 or something like that, which would justify panic stations.
That is certainly how Jason Leitch described it on the Scottish briefing yesterday. It meant essentially you had to get down to a lower base level of R to account for the additional transmissibility of the new variant if you wanted to still be anywhere near < 1.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
The scientific community have laid out the details and I have not heard any UK scientist resile from them
And of course Boris Sturgeon and Drakeford all synchronised their response last night when before they were on the same page for Christmas apart from Drakeford who had a max 2 families meeting
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
The fact that the suggestion is being made is itself interesting to me (and a lot of other posters by the look of it). I don't think Scott is endorsing it.
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
Of course he is endorsing it. Scott only ever posts tweets that are in line with his views. Thing is I actually agree with some of his views but even I find him tedious and pointless.
I disagree. His stream of naked tweets are part of the delicate balance of the site. It works macro if not always micro.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.
If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.
Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though. I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb. Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?
I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.
On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.
We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind. I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?
I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.
So I suggest the following wording:
‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’
If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.
Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost )
Given the number of French in London, there has to be a decent chance it’s too late anyway. It’s almost certainly made it to France already.
Well no, because all the key French are in London. Imagining that they may communicate with those still stranded in France is ridiculous. You clearly don't understand the French! Mon Dieu!
It's not so likely that the new strain evolved in the UK anyway. Far more likely it originated elsewhere (simply by numbers of cases)
Maybe we'll discover that the few weeks when French cases went through the roof (maxing out at around 90k from memory) was a version of this. Hopefully so, because it might suggest that it can burn out very quickly.
Then again, the french responded with a return to Max lockdown (which was harsher than what we ever had). We've still go people mingling about drinking takeway pub beers. Sorry "exercising".
Yes, it was quite a clear night here so had a good view.
Same here. A bit low down really but managed to get a basic scope on them.
All 4 of the Galilean moons were clearly visible and Saturn's rings are showing quite well at the moment. Attempted pictures were a bit rubbish though.
About half the distance apart tomorrow but likely to be cloudy.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
The second tweet is particularly important as it acknowledges UK concerns - it suggests to me that a fudge in play could be to agree that both sides "have the right" (unfettered) on waters and a future unilateral increase or decrease in fish quotas by either the UK or EU could result in a tariff response provided that it was arbitrated via fair governance - this may clear the way to a compromise now, and an open door to do something different later:
"Both Flag of European Union&Flag of United Kingdom must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake. (2/2)"
Those two Tweets are fascinating because for the first time a series of Tweets by Barnier literally could have been written by Frost instead. He's parroting all Frost's own lines.
Now is that because they're compromising and a deal is on?
Or is it because he's preempting a breakdown and wanting it to come across as he's done all he can?
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
The scientific community have laid out the details and I have not heard any UK scientist resile from them
And of course Boris Sturgeon and Drakeford all synchronised their response last night when before they were on the same page for Christmas apart from Drakeford who had a max 2 families meeting
The politicians were in a hole? And needed to somehow do a u turn late in the day? Fact. The medical and science community would support the political u turn, as they have been vociferously arguing for the u turn for weeks? Fact. The next bit of the factual jigsaw to put in place are the foreign scientists supporting our governments claims.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
This statement is neither controversial nor disputed.
Belgians think BoZo is an idiot and a liar.
Apparently this is sedition and must be censored.
Get a grip, people.
You cannot see through your hate that in actual fact that tweet was attacking the integrity of our scientists and from a country that is failing it's own covid test and is simply distasteful
Have the Government announced what's happening with universities post Christmas yet...?
This is from the Tier 4 advice published yesterday:
"Education and childcare
You can leave home for education related to the formal curriculum or training, registered childcare, under-18 sport and physical activity, and supervised activities for children that are necessary to allow parents/carers to work, seek work, or undertake education or training. Parents can still take their children to school, and people can continue existing arrangements for contact between parents and children where they live apart. This includes childcare bubbles."
Given that these are the instructions pertaining to the most restricted areas of England, that, to me, would imply that the schools and universities are remaining open and will be expected to restart as usual in the New Year. How long that position will last is anybody's guess.
Comments
And the endless bragging rights.
Seeing as SeanT isn't here I'll do the conspiracy - he could add a sequel to his book here: Chinese agent flies into London from Beijing and drops an extra mutant variant in a few cafes and pubs as "revenge" for the UK's stance on Hong Kong and leading of Western Government opinion against the CCP.
It’s like being kicked out of the University of Wales Lampeter back in the day for bullying the staff.
Or being criticised by Lance Armstrong for cheating.
In around June I wrote of the worst case being the UK COVID peak being in New Year, being worse than the neighbours and causing France to blockade us, as a bad no deal Brexit meant there was no reason to keep us sweet.
I soon managed to Google a memorandum of understanding between France and us pledging to protect transport between the two countries, and suggested that WAS the Brexit deal. Whence that?
And this is worse still, COVID has apparently worsened in its very nature, and is most specifically targeting Kent whose numbers means it teeters on an NHS overwhelm situation in the next fortnight (is the Nightingale being stood back up in London yet?) just as no deal hits in the very same location, and precisely where very large camps of transient workers are due to set up in almost certainly poor conditions.
This does have proper catastrophe potential.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
When the Conservatives schism between the loyalists and the anti-Lockdown mob led by Farage, I presume the latter will be hoping to hold their unmasked non-distanced meetings in the local Spoons at a heavily discounted rate?
Children's mental health is one of them. "Everyone knows" that it was devastaing for children's mental well being. The studies done say children's mental health actually improved markedly.
First, Belgium is worst in the world in COVID normalised to population.
Second, and even more importantly, the UK Government scientists are not the Government. They are not Boris. This would imply that UK scientists are complicit in an enormous fraud.
It is harsh call, but you are probably the worst poster here in transmitting completely irresponsible rubbish.
How our neighbours view us.
What impact BoZo and chums clown circus is having on our lives.
I’ve seen them fight to keep them open long past the point of reason, and refuse to even consider flexibility on key points like exams. I am increasingly convinced the only way schools will be shut down and the disease contained is if teachers strike. But I doubt if many could afford to strike for a whole month, even if they wanted to (which we wouldn’t).
https://twitter.com/chenweihua/status/1340588229309952000?s=20
It's not so likely that the new strain evolved in the UK anyway. Far more likely it originated elsewhere (simply by numbers of cases)
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
This is fake news of the worst kind
Then again, the french responded with a return to Max lockdown (which was harsher than what we ever had). We've still go people mingling about drinking takeway pub beers. Sorry "exercising".
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
To be clear, I'm not saying his has happened, but I don't think it should be banned from discussion, either, however the disease is developing - and it is undeniably spreading faster.
Contrarian would be correct if the time taken to make & distribute the vaccine was ∞
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
But they aren’t, so he isn’t.
People can just block or mute you there.
If I throw a scattergun of views at you, you're bound to agree with one of them...
(Oddly this seems intoxicatingly condemning, although in reality nothing of the sort)
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
And of course Boris Sturgeon and Drakeford all synchronised their response last night when before they were on the same page for Christmas apart from Drakeford who had a max 2 families meeting
This statement is neither controversial nor disputed.
Belgians think BoZo is an idiot and a liar.
Apparently this is sedition and must be censored.
Get a grip, people.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/
All 4 of the Galilean moons were clearly visible and Saturn's rings are showing quite well at the moment. Attempted pictures were a bit rubbish though.
About half the distance apart tomorrow but likely to be cloudy.
Norfolk has never been part of Wales.
That is all.
Now is that because they're compromising and a deal is on?
Or is it because he's preempting a breakdown and wanting it to come across as he's done all he can?
Either way it is interesting.
The medical and science community would support the political u turn, as they have been vociferously arguing for the u turn for weeks? Fact.
The next bit of the factual jigsaw to put in place are the foreign scientists supporting our governments claims.
"Education and childcare
You can leave home for education related to the formal curriculum or training, registered childcare, under-18 sport and physical activity, and supervised activities for children that are necessary to allow parents/carers to work, seek work, or undertake education or training. Parents can still take their children to school, and people can continue existing arrangements for contact between parents and children where they live apart. This includes childcare bubbles."
Given that these are the instructions pertaining to the most restricted areas of England, that, to me, would imply that the schools and universities are remaining open and will be expected to restart as usual in the New Year. How long that position will last is anybody's guess.