Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
The fact that the suggestion is being made is itself interesting to me (and a lot of other posters by the look of it). I don't think Scott is endorsing it.
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
Of course he is endorsing it. Scott only ever posts tweets that are in line with his views. Thing is I actually agree with some of his views but even I find him tedious and pointless.
I disagree. His stream of naked tweets are part of the delicate balance of the site. It works macro if not always micro.
My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.
If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.
Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though. I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb. Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?
I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.
On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.
We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind. I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?
I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.
So I suggest the following wording:
‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’
If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.
Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost )
Done! Good luck.
Zero chance of school closures they are needed as child care so people can go to work.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
What part about the briefing about the new strain wasn't factual?
Have the Government announced what's happening with universities post Christmas yet...?
This is from the Tier 4 advice published yesterday:
"Education and childcare
You can leave home for education related to the formal curriculum or training, registered childcare, under-18 sport and physical activity, and supervised activities for children that are necessary to allow parents/carers to work, seek work, or undertake education or training. Parents can still take their children to school, and people can continue existing arrangements for contact between parents and children where they live apart. This includes childcare bubbles."
Given that these are the instructions pertaining to the most restricted areas of England, that, to me, would imply that the schools and universities are remaining open and will be expected to restart as usual in the New Year. How long that position will last is anybody's guess.
The Government have announced that you can't travel out of Tier 4 areas. Huge numbers of students have come home for Christmas. It's a fairly fundamental question about whether they can and/or are expected to go back.
This statement is neither controversial nor disputed.
Belgians think BoZo is an idiot and a liar.
Apparently this is sedition and must be censored.
Get a grip, people.
You cannot see through your hate that in actual fact that tweet was attacking the integrity of our scientists and from a country that is failing it's own covid test and is simply distasteful
The retweeter is a bit ambiguous, but the underlying tweet merely suggests that the emergence of the new strain is a handy fig leaf for Johnson. It is possible to believe that without remotely impugning the integrity of any scientists.
Have the Government announced what's happening with universities post Christmas yet...?
This is from the Tier 4 advice published yesterday:
"Education and childcare
You can leave home for education related to the formal curriculum or training, registered childcare, under-18 sport and physical activity, and supervised activities for children that are necessary to allow parents/carers to work, seek work, or undertake education or training. Parents can still take their children to school, and people can continue existing arrangements for contact between parents and children where they live apart. This includes childcare bubbles."
Given that these are the instructions pertaining to the most restricted areas of England, that, to me, would imply that the schools and universities are remaining open and will be expected to restart as usual in the New Year. How long that position will last is anybody's guess.
The Government have announced that you can't travel out of Tier 4 areas. Huge numbers of students have come home for Christmas. It's a fairly fundamental question about whether they can and/or are expected to go back.
Vice chancellors will squeal loudly about lost revenue if they can’t. (That, after all, was pretty much the only reason for getting them back in September.)
Edit - not forgetting that many students would be travelling the other way to the major universities in London, Kent and Reading.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
The mutations are random.
Norfolk has never been part of Wales.
That is all.
The mutations are random. They are described by a uniform distribution.
The probability distribution of a function of the mutations (such as transmissibility or lethality of the virus) is related to the original probability distribution by the Jacobian of the complicated, highly non-linear transformation.
It is not random or described by a uniform distribution.
Just because the mutations are random, it does not follow that functions of the mutations are random.
The second tweet is particularly important as it acknowledges UK concerns - it suggests to me that a fudge in play could be to agree that both sides "have the right" (unfettered) on waters and a future unilateral increase or decrease in fish quotas by either the UK or EU could result in a tariff response provided that it was arbitrated via fair governance - this may clear the way to a compromise now, and an open door to do something different later:
"Both Flag of European Union&Flag of United Kingdom must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake. (2/2)"
Those two Tweets are fascinating because for the first time a series of Tweets by Barnier literally could have been written by Frost instead. He's parroting all Frost's own lines.
Now is that because they're compromising and a deal is on?
Or is it because he's preempting a breakdown and wanting it to come across as he's done all he can?
Either way it is interesting.
I hope it's the former. And I think from the way it's worded that's far more likely.
We need to seal this one up now. We all have bigger fish to fry and everyone wants to move on.
It amused me in a black humour type of way, that Trump yesterday tweeted about Johnson's statement re: christmas as evidence that his performance over Covid wasn't all that bad.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Re; the discussion in the previous thread, the grim reality seems to be that we will know within a week to ten days how potent the current strain is. If deaths don't rise in line with hospitalisations, which I know would be a bit of surprise, I expect that would point to something less gloomy. So far deaths are only predicted to rise in line with all these other factors - they haven't as yet.
That fact that over twice as many deaths were reported this Sunday as last Sunday is an indication that gloom is, unfortunately, justified.
I think you need to take a seven day moving average to smooth out the noise. The latest figures for the UK according to my calculations show the following Rs (with the change over a week earlier).
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
The mutations are random.
Norfolk has never been part of Wales.
That is all.
The mutations are random. They are described by a uniform distribution.
The probability distribution of a function of the mutations (such as transmissibility or lethality of the virus) is related to the original probability distribution by the Jacobian of the complicated, highly non-linear transformation.
It is not random or described by a uniform distribution.
Just because the mutations are random, it does not follow that functions of the mutations are random.
Have the Government announced what's happening with universities post Christmas yet...?
This is from the Tier 4 advice published yesterday:
"Education and childcare
You can leave home for education related to the formal curriculum or training, registered childcare, under-18 sport and physical activity, and supervised activities for children that are necessary to allow parents/carers to work, seek work, or undertake education or training. Parents can still take their children to school, and people can continue existing arrangements for contact between parents and children where they live apart. This includes childcare bubbles."
Given that these are the instructions pertaining to the most restricted areas of England, that, to me, would imply that the schools and universities are remaining open and will be expected to restart as usual in the New Year. How long that position will last is anybody's guess.
We will know by Christmas how hospitalisations are tracking the new cases in London.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Muntjac was the point.
Ah, I see. I fear that your joke didn’t succeed, in fact it fallow ver.
If the Lorries aren't allowed into France Ireland Italy etc then surely they will not be coming back loaded with freight. Shortages incoming but nothing else
That's obvious and I feel silly for not having thought of that before.
Forget what I said earlier. We're stuffed.
Oh well, at least I had the foresight to keep one of my emergency Brexit crates stocked up in case we had to self-isolate and struggled to get an online delivery. That should ward off starvation for an extra couple of weeks.
Have the Government announced what's happening with universities post Christmas yet...?
This is from the Tier 4 advice published yesterday:
"Education and childcare
You can leave home for education related to the formal curriculum or training, registered childcare, under-18 sport and physical activity, and supervised activities for children that are necessary to allow parents/carers to work, seek work, or undertake education or training. Parents can still take their children to school, and people can continue existing arrangements for contact between parents and children where they live apart. This includes childcare bubbles."
Given that these are the instructions pertaining to the most restricted areas of England, that, to me, would imply that the schools and universities are remaining open and will be expected to restart as usual in the New Year. How long that position will last is anybody's guess.
We will know by Christmas how hospitalisations are tracking the new cases in London.
If the Lorries aren't allowed into France Ireland Italy etc then surely they will not be coming back loaded with freight. Shortages incoming but nothing else
That's obvious and I feel silly for not having thought of that before.
Forget what I said earlier. We're stuffed.
Oh well, at least I had the foresight to keep one of my emergency Brexit crates stocked up in case we had to self-isolate and struggled to get an online delivery. That should ward off starvation for an extra couple of weeks.
Wasn't it revealed a few weeks ago that the Government had little or no emergency plans to secure the supply of food (unlike medicines etc). Because they assumed that the Supermarkets would always have it all in hand?
I think the French are playing games with haulage. Very probably to add pressure to finalising the Brexit deal.
Drivers and couriers in sealed gaps pose virtually zero transmission risk when moving around. It's at the warehouses and depots where the challenge is and that could be entirely by masked and PPE'D domestic staff either side of the channel.
It effectively amounts to a blockade. Far worse than a WTO Brexit.
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Nervtag made it up?
Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
No it’s not. Because they made nothing up. Our scientists and our government carefully and thoroughly caveated the message, it was posters here and the media in general especially the print media who ignored all the caveats and talked up rampant mutant covid.
If Boris comes out and says it’s turned out not as bad, but we told you it might not be bad once the full results are in, then he is absolutely right, he did caveat it. Go back and have a look.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Muntjac was the point.
Ah, I see. I fear that your joke didn’t succeed, in fact it fallow ver.
The fault lay with the audience. I demand that you roe back from that post.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Muntjac was the point.
In the obscure pun contest you are king. Long may you rein deer!
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Muntjac was the point.
Ah, I see. I fear that your joke didn’t succeed, in fact it fallow ver.
The fault lay with the audience. I demand that you roe back from that post.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
The mutations are random.
Norfolk has never been part of Wales.
That is all.
The mutations are random. They are described by a uniform distribution.
The probability distribution of a function of the mutations (such as transmissibility or lethality of the virus) is related to the original probability distribution by the Jacobian of the complicated, highly non-linear transformation.
It is not random or described by a uniform distribution.
Just because the mutations are random, it does not follow that functions of the mutations are random.
The functions are randomish, too. Selection of viruses with particular function differences obviously isn’t.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
What part about the briefing about the new strain wasn't factual?
For example, this. The reason for "cancelling Christmas" is that Johnson allowed cases to spread due to ineffective controls, particularly in the South East of England. Scientists' basic line is that the new variation is a concern, we don't know yet if it is significant, but we're investigating.
I've been wondering about this. If the govt has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons, and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of it, that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
That's not yet clear at all, I would stress, and to be fair.
Nervtag made it up?
Yeah, completely absurd to suggest the whole thing was made up for domestic consumption.
No it’s not. Because they made nothing up. Our scientists and our government carefully and thoroughly caveated the message, it was posters here and the media in general especially the print media who ignored all the caveats and talked up rampant mutant covid.
If Boris comes out and says it’s turned out not as bad, but we told you it might not be bad once the full results are in, then he is absolutely right, he did caveat it. Go back and have a look.
If Johnson wanted to do that, he'd have used the high-end estimate for the increase in R, not the low-end.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Muntjac was the point.
In the obscure pun contest you are king. Long may you rein deer!
In all modesty, I have always been a sika after excellence.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
What part about the briefing about the new strain wasn't factual?
For example, this. The reason for "cancelling Christmas" is that Johnson allowed cases to spread due to ineffective controls, particularly in the South East of England. Scientists' basic line is that the new variation is a concern, we don't know yet if it is significant, but we're investigating.
They've already said it is significant, and that there is an increase in the R value. Maybe they didn't say that earlier in the week, but they are saying it now.
that tweet was attacking the integrity of our scientists
It doesn't mention our scientists.
It's about BoZo.
Get a grip.
Belgium scientists are questioning the basis of our decision and that recommendation came from our scientists
No. They. Didn’t. They caveated it. The media invented the non caveated bigged up version.
I have been saying for 24hrs it was clever politics by the British politicians, because if it’s revealed to have had less of an impact the politicians and scientists are off the hook, because they caveated what they told us.
I think the French are playing games with haulage. Very probably to add pressure to finalising the Brexit deal.
Drivers and couriers in sealed gaps pose virtually zero transmission risk when moving around. It's at the warehouses and depots where the challenge is and that could be entirely by masked and PPE'D domestic staff either side of the channel.
It effectively amounts to a blockade. Far worse than a WTO Brexit.
It's probably challengeable under law as well.
What were the two unacceptable options in Yes Prime Minister? Bombing Warsaw and invading France?
I wonder if Johnson thinks these are unacceptable?
My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.
If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.
Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though. I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb. Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?
I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.
On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.
We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind. I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?
I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.
So I suggest the following wording:
‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’
If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.
Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost )
Done! Good luck.
Zero chance of school closures they are needed as child care so people can go to work.
No. The most likely chain of events is:
1. Government leaves schools open, because what little is left of its credibility rests on this 2. The schools accelerate the spread of the new variant and the healthcare system collapses 3. Government ends up being forced to shut the schools
This would be entirely consistent with the pattern seen earlier in the pandemic, including the rule changes over Christmas that took place yesterday when the Prime Minister was still insisting that his crackpot plans would go ahead practically right up until the point that they weren't anymore.
Instead of getting all the pain of the school closures, we'll simply get all the pain caused by the schools not being closed and then all the pain of the school closures anyway, just a couple of weeks later.
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Muntjac was the point.
In the obscure pun contest you are king. Long may you rein deer!
In all modesty, I have always been a sika after excellence.
So Scott do you think NERVTAG are lying? You can go read the minutes yourself if you want to get it from the source. If not, why do you post such stuff?
The fact that the suggestion is being made is itself interesting to me (and a lot of other posters by the look of it). I don't think Scott is endorsing it.
What a rubbish acronym NERVTAG is, sounds like a lame attempt to update SPECTRE in the Bond franchise.
Of course he is endorsing it. Scott only ever posts tweets that are in line with his views. Thing is I actually agree with some of his views but even I find him tedious and pointless.
I disagree. His stream of naked tweets are part of the delicate balance of the site. It works macro if not always micro.
Wish it was micro.
Well no poster works micro all or even most of the time. 20% is par. But you put it all together and the macro does work. And this is the point. Lots of dodgy posts that by a strange and indefinable alchemy from a viable whole. We mess with it at our peril.
I am getting suspicious about role of media in all this. Will tweets like this one create tomorrow’s unnecessary panic buying stampede, or tomorrow’s necessary panic buying stampede?
Why are the snowflakes so upset that the Belgians think BoZo is an untrustworthy liar?
We all know he is an untrustworthy liar?
Why are they triggered by the Belgians pointing that out?
Bojo is a liar. He's a politician. Politicians lie. Big fucking deal.
But, you are also suggesting that Government scientists are liars as well ... and on a very serious matter.
You are posting material that is attacking their scientific integrity, with no evidence at all.
(Let us recall that ScottP's knowledge of science is so basic that it required a whole platoon of posters to explain the Monty Hall problem to him. And he still did not understand it).
Come back to us on that once you have achieved an O level understanding of evolution by natural selection.
I have been accused of being a pb Tory and a Corbynite. A prize indeed!
But, I always wanted, more than anything, the ultimate accolade of having .... a pb stalker.
I have high hopes for you IshmaelZ in your new career. Very promising.
A Pb stalker? They’re deer fellows really.
That's your venison of the truth.
I just had a haunch we could do with a punning contest.
i will whip your ass in that tournament, Jack.
Either you’ve got confused and think I’m His Grace, or we’re suddenly talking about Hyufd.
Muntjac was the point.
In the obscure pun contest you are king. Long may you rein deer!
In all modesty, I have always been a sika after excellence.
I think the French are playing games with haulage. Very probably to add pressure to finalising the Brexit deal.
Drivers and couriers in sealed gaps pose virtually zero transmission risk when moving around. It's at the warehouses and depots where the challenge is and that could be entirely by masked and PPE'D domestic staff either side of the channel.
It effectively amounts to a blockade. Far worse than a WTO Brexit.
It's probably challengeable under law as well.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see if there's a renewed bout of panic buying in the supermarkets after this news.
I'm not waiting to be caught out this time. I was going back on Tuesday for some pre-prepared veg and other short shelf life stuff for Christmas. Think I'll go after work tomorrow instead - hopefully I'll be able to get what I want just about in date this time, along with an emergency bulk buy of pasta and sauce and a family-sized pack of bog rolls.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
What part about the briefing about the new strain wasn't factual?
For example, this. The reason for "cancelling Christmas" is that Johnson allowed cases to spread due to ineffective controls, particularly in the South East of England. Scientists' basic line is that the new variation is a concern, we don't know yet if it is significant, but we're investigating.
I am getting suspicious about role of media in all this. Will tweets like this one create tomorrow’s unnecessary panic buying stampede, or tomorrow’s necessary panic buying stampede?
My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.
If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.
Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though. I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb. Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?
I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.
On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.
We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind. I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?
I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.
So I suggest the following wording:
‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’
If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.
Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost )
Done! Good luck.
Don't mean to stick my nose in, but who wins if they close post-16 only? i.e. colleges and SF colleges (and maybe school sixth forms). Are colleges a "defined tier"? If so, needs to read 'schools or colleges in any defined tier..."
I don't know about the Covid situation in Belgium but today I was on a Zoom meeting with some rowers among whom was a Netherlands GP and he remarked that the new variant of Covid has been in the Netherlands for the last month and the ban on incoming UK travellers was PR from the Netherlands government.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
What part about the briefing about the new strain wasn't factual?
For example, this. The reason for "cancelling Christmas" is that Johnson allowed cases to spread due to ineffective controls, particularly in the South East of England. Scientists' basic line is that the new variation is a concern, we don't know yet if it is significant, but we're investigating.
They've already said it is significant, and that there is an increase in the R value. Maybe they didn't say that earlier in the week, but they are saying it now.
Again note the caveats. Early evidence. Potential risk.
Keir devolution speech tomorrow, will be interesting to hear what he's got to say
A total irrelevance.
Four days before Christmas, ten days before the Brexit deadline, and in the middle of a new scary coronavirus mutation. I assume he wants no one to hear it?
Can I briefly play Devil’s Advocate for Scott? NERVTAG are most certainly not lying and they have come up with a solid paper based on the evidence available - but what the Government do with the findings therein is out of their hands. I post below a link to the minutes of their meeting on Thursday which comes up with very few definitive answers. The finding that NERVTAG have “moderate” confidence that the new variant demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility is not the “definitive proof” some on here portray it as. That conclusion is understandable as it was reached as a result of “Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.” I’m no scientist but I see the truism that a correlation does not mean causation all the time. It often does I admit.
The decision last night, made for whatever reason, was belatedly the right one, but I don’t think a pile on on Scott over reposting that Tweet is justified.
I've been wondering about this. If the government has even slightly played up the significance of the strain for internal domestic policy reasons , and then were to bring about the effects of international isolation we're beginning to see as a result of that , that would put its previous mis-steps in the shade.
Nothing like that is yet at all clear, I would stress, and to be fair.
The UK government has definitely played up the new strain, as a justification for new strict measures. It's easier to blame strict measures directly on the virus than to accept these measures are necessary to undo the damage they themselves caused by not keeping on top of the virus.
But you have to be careful in your logic. Just because the government blames the new strain for failures in their handling of the virus, which have largely nothing to do with the new strain, it doesn't mean the new strain is benign.
What the Belgian virologists are querying is that there are many, many mutations out there, similar to this one. Why should the UK strain be uniquely virulent compared with the thousands of others?
I should add, none of this makes any difference to whether other countries will take precautionary measures against the UK. They will anyway. That bit can't be laid at the government's door.
Because random mutations are random, and the ones that enhance the spread of the virus are preferred? I really don't see how people can think this is all one vast conspiracy.
I don't think it's a conspiracy, but I would advise the government not to spin virus mutations to support their agenda. Keep it absolutely factual. The reason for the new measures is that cases are rising. We have noted a new strain of the virus, which we are investigating.
What part about the briefing about the new strain wasn't factual?
For example, this. The reason for "cancelling Christmas" is that Johnson allowed cases to spread due to ineffective controls, particularly in the South East of England. Scientists' basic line is that the new variation is a concern, we don't know yet if it is significant, but we're investigating.
They've already said it is significant, and that there is an increase in the R value. Maybe they didn't say that earlier in the week, but they are saying it now.
Again note the caveats. Early evidence. Potential risk.
No, they've been quite explicit that it does show an increase in R. e.g.,
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific officer, did not put a number on it but agreed the new strain – now officially named VUI-202012/01 – showed a “substantial increase in transmissibility”.
Well Keir can't go on opposing forever, needs to discuss a few policies. Of course people will complain that he doesn't have any policies and then complain about policies he announces.
I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
Well Keir can't go on opposing forever, needs to discuss a few policies. Of course people will complain that he doesn't have any policies and then complain about policies he announces.
Oh well, I'll be interested Keir!
Definitely good to have them, just a bit strange timing. Very interested in hearing how the whole issue can be addressed, not just for Scotland, but all of the nations.
The second tweet is particularly important as it acknowledges UK concerns - it suggests to me that a fudge in play could be to agree that both sides "have the right" (unfettered) on waters and a future unilateral increase or decrease in fish quotas by either the UK or EU could result in a tariff response provided that it was arbitrated via fair governance - this may clear the way to a compromise now, and an open door to do something different later:
"Both Flag of European Union&Flag of United Kingdom must have the right to set their own laws & control their own waters. And we should both be able to act when our interests are at stake. (2/2)"
Those two Tweets are fascinating because for the first time a series of Tweets by Barnier literally could have been written by Frost instead. He's parroting all Frost's own lines.
Now is that because they're compromising and a deal is on?
Or is it because he's preempting a breakdown and wanting it to come across as he's done all he can?
Either way it is interesting.
Deal is coming. The "moving" will be in the eye of the beholder. I hope I am convincing at least some people. Really keen to nip any unwarranted relief in the bud. Hate to see Johnson profiting from his spin and manipulation of the media.
I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
My bet of £10 to site funds that the government will continue to keep,schools open even if it leads this to be the most disastrous pandemic since 1348 remains open to anyone who will take me up.
If they didn’t close them on the 9th December when it became blindingly obvious what was happening they won’t do so now.
Happy to take you up on that one. Let's put a timeline and some terms on it though. I bet govt will have announced school closures for in-person teaching in England by 1st Feb. Seem fair? Missing any obvious ambiguities?
I would make it the 15th Jan, but I’m open to discussions. The reason is I’m fairly confident if we get past the first week they will again be reluctant to admit failure.
On or before Sunday 24th Jan compromise.
We should probably have some kind of scale of school closures in mind. I'd guess at 200+ schools as reasonable?
I’m happy to agree on the date. I wouldn’t agree on the scale because one thing I think will happen is that the BS on not isolating all students in a class plus those who’ve taught them will go. Which means many schools will have to shut by default anyway. If the government’s own regulations had been observed by them in school settings, around 60% of staff at my school - including me - would have been isolating in the first half of November.
So I suggest the following wording:
‘The government to announce a closure of schools in any defined tier for epidemiological reasons on or before 24th January.’
If they do, I pay OGH £10. If they don’t, you do instead.
Happy with that? If not, happy to keep negotiating. (Perhaps we should replace Lord Frost )
Done! Good luck.
Don't mean to stick my nose in, but who wins if they close post-16 only? i.e. colleges and SF colleges (and maybe school sixth forms). Are colleges a "defined tier"? If so, needs to read 'schools or colleges in any defined tier..."
As far as I am concerned, if it’s not got children under 16 in it, it wouldn’t count because it’s not technically a school.
I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
Yep, Netherlands cases have accelerated rapidly in the last week.
I hope this isn‘t a case of the UK being more honest than other countries about the new strain.
The Germans have said they "haven't found it" which is not quite the same as saying it "isn't there" - they've also had an explosion in case numbers in recent weeks.......
I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
With the worst infection rate in western Europe, Belgium’s government has warned that parts of the country could soon see a “tsunami of cases” with the virus spreading uncontrollably.
Brussels and Wallonia are at the epicentre of this second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic.
I was surprised that the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany weren't included in these travel bans. It's very obvious that this mutant strain is present in large quantities in all three of these nations as well. I think this might spark another round of border closures for them too.
I fear in the next few days we will see a complete travel ban across Europe into and out of each country for every country
Who are the winners and losers in that situation...?
Comments
Edit - not forgetting that many students would be travelling the other way to the major universities in London, Kent and Reading.
It's about BoZo.
Get a grip.
The probability distribution of a function of the mutations (such as transmissibility or lethality of the virus) is related to the original probability distribution by the Jacobian of the complicated, highly non-linear transformation.
It is not random or described by a uniform distribution.
Just because the mutations are random, it does not follow that functions of the mutations are random.
We need to seal this one up now. We all have bigger fish to fry and everyone wants to move on.
The latest figures for the UK according to my calculations show the following Rs (with the change over a week earlier).
Hospital admissions 1.19 (+0.05)
Ventilators 1.07 (+0.07)
Deaths 1.10 (+0.09)
Obviously there are long lags between initial infections and the above.
That should inform such decisions.
Forget what I said earlier. We're stuffed.
Oh well, at least I had the foresight to keep one of my emergency Brexit crates stocked up in case we had to self-isolate and struggled to get an online delivery. That should ward off starvation for an extra couple of weeks.
Plans are in place.
https://twitter.com/KirstySedgman/status/1340586106392350720
Drivers and couriers in sealed gaps pose virtually zero transmission risk when moving around. It's at the warehouses and depots where the challenge is and that could be entirely by masked and PPE'D domestic staff either side of the channel.
It effectively amounts to a blockade. Far worse than a WTO Brexit.
It's probably challengeable under law as well.
If Boris comes out and says it’s turned out not as bad, but we told you it might not be bad once the full results are in, then he is absolutely right, he did caveat it. Go back and have a look.
1) Its a good thing we didn't piss away the lockdown ammunition in September.
2) Overheard today two separate groups blaming Londoners.
The decision made by BoZo.
No criticism of the scientists is written or implied. You have imagined it.
Selection of viruses with particular function differences obviously isn’t.
https://twitter.com/BBCSimonJack/status/1340752328769626112
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1340375707852148736
I have been saying for 24hrs it was clever politics by the British politicians, because if it’s revealed to have had less of an impact the politicians and scientists are off the hook, because they caveated what they told us.
I wonder if Johnson thinks these are unacceptable?
1. Government leaves schools open, because what little is left of its credibility rests on this
2. The schools accelerate the spread of the new variant and the healthcare system collapses
3. Government ends up being forced to shut the schools
This would be entirely consistent with the pattern seen earlier in the pandemic, including the rule changes over Christmas that took place yesterday when the Prime Minister was still insisting that his crackpot plans would go ahead practically right up until the point that they weren't anymore.
Instead of getting all the pain of the school closures, we'll simply get all the pain caused by the schools not being closed and then all the pain of the school closures anyway, just a couple of weeks later.
Fuck me.
We’re completely screwed.
And I would ask the moderator at what point is it permissable for a poster to edit and change another posters words and their meaning
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340754535057416199
I'm not waiting to be caught out this time. I was going back on Tuesday for some pre-prepared veg and other short shelf life stuff for Christmas. Think I'll go after work tomorrow instead - hopefully I'll be able to get what I want just about in date this time, along with an emergency bulk buy of pasta and sauce and a family-sized pack of bog rolls.
But the surge in cases in London does look to have new factors:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London
The decision last night, made for whatever reason, was belatedly the right one, but I don’t think a pile on on Scott over reposting that Tweet is justified.
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific officer, did not put a number on it but agreed the new strain – now officially named VUI-202012/01 – showed a “substantial increase in transmissibility”.
Oh well, I'll be interested Keir!
1) How many other countries have it.
2) How many countries knew they had it.
Remember how a month or two back people were pointing out that the UK was being hit less hard than most of Europe by the autumn wave.
As a unionist I will support anything that improves the relationship
Brussels and Wallonia are at the epicentre of this second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-54650791