Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The final battle of WH2020 – the Georgia run-off for two senate seats – politicalbetting.com

123468

Comments

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.
    Given we've failed to eradicate measles, I think thats a little optimistic.
    I think the pressure to eradicate this will be much greater and as soon as the vaccine proves to be safe there will be queues of people getting vaccinated because it unlocks normal life. Not getting a measles vaccination doesn't lead to having a half life.
    Don't get me wrong, I am as ecstatic about the vaccine news as you. And similarly think its a real example of where we've done tremendously well.

    However.

    I know lots of people who won't get it.

    I suspect we'll have Covid bumbling around at a very low level for decades, even in this country.

    But the point I am making is that if the vast majority of the vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated, a few million idiotic refuseniks isn't going to mean we have to continue wearing masks past next summer. It means a few idiotic refuseniks and, sadly, a few people who aren't able to have the vaccine, are going to catch a bad dose of it every year and perish....
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I was poo-pooh's for suggesting the 1/8 PaddyPower market that Donald Trump would not concede on television by Friday was a rock solid win.

    I suggested that there's 'fat-all' chance of Trump doing such a thing.

    Now we hear that Trump is not only refusing, his team are preparing for a second Trump administration. Pompeo has said that very thing:

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to accept Joe Biden’s victory as President-elect, saying at the State Department Tuesday that “there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration."

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-10-20/h_ea24bf2d9e4098e37e905b8c19487beb

    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    ...

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    I think that is a route for Kamala to win


    With a health event for Joe, you mean?
    Or he just says he’s handing it over to her before he’s sworn in.

    What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
    Yup, think so
    Someone wants a grand at 1000 on Betfair Pence next Pres now!

    Fill your boots layers
  • Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
    Not for the first time to be honest, maybe Allegra Stratton will eradicate some of these avoidable errors
  • Mortimer said:

    glw said:

    Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.

    You mean as always....
    One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
    Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
    I find KDE on Ubuntu installs nicely enough. Answer a few questions and go away and put the kettle on. Having 6 switchable desktops to work with is nice too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.

    (i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.

    (ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.

    My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
    For clarity, I'm talking entirely about category (ii). The ones who are trying to build a narrative that maybe this is still on!!!!1!
    But it ain't on. It's flatlining. It's head isn't even attached. And I'm heartened to see so many people of diverse political opinions just kicking the absolute shit out of their nonsense. I mean, it's shooting fish in a barrel, but it's fabulous to see.
    Yes, I know you were. The pushing of the narrative as opposed to the fearful musing about what might happen. It's easy to tell the difference. It is for me anyway. Some seem to find it slightly trickier.

    Still 1.09 btw. What a bet! I'm tossing the car keys in. :smile:
    Have you got anything left bar your wardrobe after betting it all on a Biden landslide :) ?
    Full disclosure -

    I would have made £2137 all told on WH2020 but since I have put £1500 of that on Biden now (post election) it will end up being a bit more.

    Outside of movies like The Sting you don't often get the chance to back the winner of a race after the race. It's a dream (!) scenario for rational political punters.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Kind of wondering if the US is about to descend into its second civil war.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    isam said:

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    What did he mean by that?

    https://youtu.be/GfqOytpE3VY

    I assume that was written down as:

    'My name is Joe Biden/I'm Joe Biden's Husband' depending on whether Joe or his wife were giving the speech?
    He says he’s Jill Biden’s husband, but I meant the bit about him being Kamala’s running partner
    Ahh, I see. That makes more sense!

    Its a self deprecating joke, isn't it?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    The idea that that was Boris endorsing Biden, rather than Boris whining like a bitch on Biden's command, is touching.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    I think that is a route for Kamala to win


    With a health event for Joe, you mean?
    Or he just says he’s handing it over to her before he’s sworn in.

    What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
    You've missed out the key bit just above it.

    This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This is not the next President market, but the winner of the 2020 Presidential election market.
    Obviously I read that first, but why would there be any need for the bit I posted if the part you quote is the be all and end all? Why would they bother saying anything about ambiguity etc?
    Because we have a septuagenarian President in the midst of a plague and the order of succession might confuse punters.

    The best analogy TP put it as many years ago was that it is like the next permanent manager of a football market, caretaker managers do not count.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    I think under 50’s are just last in the queue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.
    Given we've failed to eradicate measles, I think thats a little optimistic.
    I think the pressure to eradicate this will be much greater and as soon as the vaccine proves to be safe there will be queues of people getting vaccinated because it unlocks normal life. Not getting a measles vaccination doesn't lead to having a half life.
    Don't get me wrong, I am as ecstatic about the vaccine news as you. And similarly think its a real example of where we've done tremendously well.

    However.

    I know lots of people who won't get it.

    I suspect we'll have Covid bumbling around at a very low level for decades, even in this country.

    But the point I am making is that if the vast majority of the vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated, a few million idiotic refuseniks isn't going to mean we have to continue wearing masks past next summer. It means a few idiotic refuseniks and, sadly, a few people who aren't able to have the vaccine, are going to catch a bad dose of it every year and perish....
    I don't think it daft to await the formal safety analysis. I have several colleagues not keen on being first in the queue.

    Personally, I am up for it.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    I think that is a route for Kamala to win


    With a health event for Joe, you mean?
    Or he just says he’s handing it over to her before he’s sworn in.

    What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
    You've missed out the key bit just above it.

    This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

    This is not the next President market, but the winner of the 2020 Presidential election market.
    Obviously I read that first, but why would there be any need for the bit I posted if the part you quote is the be all and end all? Why would they bother saying anything about ambiguity etc?
    Because we have a septuagenarian President in the midst of a plague and the order of succession might confuse punters.

    The best analogy TP put it as many years ago was that it is like the next permanent manager of a football market, caretaker managers do not count.
    Some mug wants a grand on Pence, off you go, more free money
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    What did he mean by that?

    https://youtu.be/GfqOytpE3VY

    I assume that was written down as:

    'My name is Joe Biden/I'm Joe Biden's Husband' depending on whether Joe or his wife were giving the speech?
    He says he’s Jill Biden’s husband, but I meant the bit about him being Kamala’s running partner
    Ahh, I see. That makes more sense!

    Its a self deprecating joke, isn't it?
    I guess so
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Kind of wondering if the US is about to descend into its second civil war.

    Well, all that boarding up of shops in DC seems wise before this Saturdays rally/bierkeller putsch.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited November 2020

    Kind of wondering if the US is about to descend into its second civil war.

    Let's hope Biden puts an end to the violent protests by Antifa in Portland, Seattle and elsewhere.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    gealbhan said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.

    (i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.

    (ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.

    My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
    I’m definitely (i). In my defence, it’s perfectly rational to expect the irrational. There are no rules, limits or red lines when Trump is involved, everything goes if it works.

    Where you are wrong is claiming it takes America rogue, or into civil war. Really? A bit of arcane goal post moving, legal disputes that will pingpong on for years, but for now allow Republican legislators to apportion state delegates a different way for example. Well, it’s unfair to ask me to name exactly what - 95% of me is catching up on sleep lost last week. But 5% of mind is expecting the unexpected since i realised Trump is not alone, not remotely alone. 😯
    No, I'm dead right about this central point. If Trump were to rig things to stay in power having visibly lost the election in the eyes of the world and most of America, there is no way, no way on Earth, that it will not be met with - and I will quote the man himself here - "fire and fury like the country has never seen before".
  • Foxy said:

    Kind of wondering if the US is about to descend into its second civil war.

    Well, all that boarding up of shops in DC seems wise before this Saturdays rally/bierkeller putsch.
    O please let the Trump supporters smash up all the shops in Washington DC! It'll be so funny after Farage made that video saying that the boarding up was for when BLM go on the rampage after a Trump win.
  • MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.

    Not vaccinating under 50s is to do with the number of doses we have available from Pfizer, if the AZ vaccine also comes good then we have more than enough for everyone. If the government says no to vaccinating the under 50s they can basically kiss re-election goodbye.
    There will ve riots if they say they will only vaccinate over 50s....and not like this government don't have a reputation for making crap decisions, then as soon as they recieve some incoming they fold.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    I thought they were already manufacturing, despite not having approval yet?
    We are, production is still slower than we'd have liked. AZN promised 10m doses by year end, and is only going to manage 3m or so.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    peter505 said:

    Kinabalu it is attitudes like yours the cancel culture attitude which led to the rise of Trump. I hope the irony is not lost on you by the way how old are you

    82.
  • Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    I think under 50’s are just last in the queue.
    Last in the queue - anybody who thought the virus was a hoax.
  • Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.
    Given we've failed to eradicate measles, I think thats a little optimistic.
    We may succeed in eradicating anti-vaxxers though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    IshmaelZ said:

    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.

    (i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.

    (ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.

    My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
    There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.

    Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
    To be fair to @kinabalu he did say that but, I hope for his sake, he didn't
    Yeah that's what I am saying - he is putting his money where his mouth is. I am sure he'll be fine, but after my bedwetting of a week ago I am not following him.
    You're not a big punter though, Ishmael, are you?

    Or are you?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    I think under 50’s are just last in the queue.
    Group 11 to ??
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Here if you don't move out of No. 10 the same day the Queen comes over and slaps you. Little know secret is the first thing she says when a new PM rises after kissing hands is 'Don't f*ck me on this'.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited November 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    The idea that that was Boris endorsing Biden, rather than Boris whining like a bitch on Biden's command, is touching.
    It is generally accepted that the phone call was of mutual benefit and to the detriment of Trump

    But of course many will not like the fact that Boris was one of the first to speak to Biden after Trudeau and really do want the UK to be at the back of the queue.
  • I guess any future lockdown will be dependent on Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1326276568583467009
  • Kind of wondering if the US is about to descend into its second civil war.

    Please no
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.

    (i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.

    (ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.

    My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
    There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.

    Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
    To be fair to @kinabalu he did say that but, I hope for his sake, he didn't
    Yeah that's what I am saying - he is putting his money where his mouth is. I am sure he'll be fine, but after my bedwetting of a week ago I am not following him.
    You're not a big punter though, Ishmael, are you?

    Or are you?
    Nope. Had £2k on Biden, but that's several multiples of all the bets I have ever had, on everything put together, prior to this. So I am going to retire now and be that one mug in a million that actually comes out ahead.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010

    I was poo-pooh's for suggesting the 1/8 PaddyPower market that Donald Trump would not concede on television by Friday was a rock solid win.

    I suggested that there's 'fat-all' chance of Trump doing such a thing.

    Now we hear that Trump is not only refusing, his team are preparing for a second Trump administration. Pompeo has said that very thing:

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to accept Joe Biden’s victory as President-elect, saying at the State Department Tuesday that “there will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration."

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-and-news-11-10-20/h_ea24bf2d9e4098e37e905b8c19487beb

    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.

    Let's hope moderate voters in Georgia are as appalled as everyone else.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    I see the BYT has an opinion piece up in a fairly prominent place on its website page. Officially about the Argentinian Junta but, given where it's placed and the context, it reads easily as a fairly blatant call for crowds to gather outside Trump's officials households and workplaces to call for "justice".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/opinion/atencion-murderer-next-door-escrache-argentina.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    Alistair said:
    🤦🏽‍♀️ These people are truly something else.
    Demagogue. Pure and simple. The next few weeks will be an incredible test of the US constitution, whose authors tried to anticipate this moment.

    The problem is that constitution only works if both sides stick to norms. Only one side is.
    Someone (I think Isaac Asimov) wrote a story about a civilisation that was planned far into the future, but eventually an unforeseen anomaly cropped up, known as the Mule. Mr Trump has often brought that story to my mind. (Was it called Foundation, perhaps?)

    Good evening, everybody.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    I see the BYT has an opinion piece up in a fairly prominent place on its website page. Officially about the Argentinian Junta but, given where it's placed and the context, it reads easily as a fairly blatant call for crowds to gather outside Trump's officials households and workplaces to call for "justice".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/opinion/atencion-murderer-next-door-escrache-argentina.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    Even the NYT!
  • Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    I think under 50’s are just last in the queue.
    That is likely the destination but the head of the UK vaccines posted this as recently as the 27th October:

    "The Vaccine Taskforce has options to purchase sufficient doses of each vaccine type to vaccinate the appropriate UK population. Following the interim advice by the UK's Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisations,6 vaccination would be recommended for adults older than 50 years, health-care and social-care workers on the front line, and adults with underlying comorbidities."

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32175-9/fulltext
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    The idea that that was Boris endorsing Biden, rather than Boris whining like a bitch on Biden's command, is touching.
    It is generally accepted that the phone call was of mutual benefit and to the detriment of Trump

    But of course many will not like the fact that Boris was one of the first to speak to Biden after Trudeau and really do want the UK to be at the back of the queue.
    Really? Who wants that?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602
    Andy_JS said:

    Kind of wondering if the US is about to descend into its second civil war.

    Let's hope Biden puts an end to the violent protests by Antifa in Portland, Seattle and elsewhere.
    I suspect the old notion that it takes two to tango applies to a civil war. Biden calming down Antifa and BLM doesn't really help, unless you are advocating a HWO for Trump's militias.

    It doesn't have to end in violence, and tbf, there is only one man who can de-escalate this, and it is Trump.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    I think that is a route for Kamala to win


    With a health event for Joe, you mean?
    Or he just says he’s handing it over to her before he’s sworn in.

    What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
    Yup, think so
    Someone wants a grand at 1000 on Betfair Pence next Pres now!

    Fill your boots layers
    I wouldn't lay anything at 1000. Not even West Ham or Arsenal to win the Champions League this season when they aren't in it. Or even nearly in it.

    Why were you banned btw? Was it for being a "strutting right wing populist"?
  • Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
    All-too-believably incompetent comms from No 10, I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    The idea that that was Boris endorsing Biden, rather than Boris whining like a bitch on Biden's command, is touching.
    I find the idea it was endorsement to be a strange one, someone yesterday questioned whether Boris genuinely 'supported' Biden as well, as if that mattered at all. Boris like other world leaders sent out a statement notwithstanding the Republicans acting like babies, and his comms team cocked up on a graphic. I like making a mountain out of a molehill as much as anyone, but there's only so far it can be taken.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.

    Not vaccinating under 50s is to do with the number of doses we have available from Pfizer, if the AZ vaccine also comes good then we have more than enough for everyone. If the government says no to vaccinating the under 50s they can basically kiss re-election goodbye.
    I don't think you ever eradicate a respiratory illness virus. Even the old flus are still out their in other animal reservoirs waiting for the human herd immunity to die off. It's been about 50 years since a major H2N2 outbreak - can't be that much immunity left globally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
    All-too-believably incompetent comms from No 10, I think.
    Well I don't know. Certainly the operation is usually a complete shambles, but you'd think finding IT literate people could still occur. I don't know why even very basic presentation stuff seems so hard for parties sometimes. Of the 2019 GE manifestos only the Green Party's properly hyperlinked the document for ease of use when first released
  • kle4 said:


    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.

    What I find more incredible is the various online defenders who genuine seem to believe that a Republican claiming something happened is itself proof that there's something dodgy going on which raises interesting questions.

    It's be like a religious person trying to prove a miracle by pointing to it being referenced in their holy book.
    Why are you finding this incredible? One of the key reasons Trump came to power was the birther movement. Its not like a religious movement, it is a religious movement.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
    All-too-believably incompetent comms from No 10, I think.
    A very fair point.
  • AnneJGP said:

    Alistair said:
    🤦🏽‍♀️ These people are truly something else.
    Demagogue. Pure and simple. The next few weeks will be an incredible test of the US constitution, whose authors tried to anticipate this moment.

    The problem is that constitution only works if both sides stick to norms. Only one side is.
    Someone (I think Isaac Asimov) wrote a story about a civilisation that was planned far into the future, but eventually an unforeseen anomaly cropped up, known as the Mule. Mr Trump has often brought that story to my mind. (Was it called Foundation, perhaps?)

    Good evening, everybody.
    Foundation trilogy/series, it just grew and grew; the theory of psychohistory made quite an impression on me as a young teenager. Yes, the Mule was the spanner in the works.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,860
    edited November 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MrEd said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.

    (i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.

    (ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.

    My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
    There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.

    Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
    To be fair to @kinabalu he did say that but, I hope for his sake, he didn't
    Yeah that's what I am saying - he is putting his money where his mouth is. I am sure he'll be fine, but after my bedwetting of a week ago I am not following him.
    You're not a big punter though, Ishmael, are you?

    Or are you?
    Nope. Had £2k on Biden, but that's several multiples of all the bets I have ever had, on everything put together, prior to this. So I am going to retire now and be that one mug in a million that actually comes out ahead.
    Wow. Hats off. That is a big bet for someone who doesn't partake much. And a great one too but, yes, totally sound call to make it your last.

    DeChambeau for the Masters at 9 is worth a fiver though.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Looks like the Supreme Court is keeping the ACA

    https://twitter.com/jedshug/status/1326190602590048256

    They are hammering Texas on both Standing and severability. That is a full on massacre.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:


    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.

    What I find more incredible is the various online defenders who genuinely seem to believe that a Republican claiming something happened is itself proof that there's something dodgy going on which raises interesting questions.

    It's be like a religious person trying to prove a miracle by pointing to it being referenced in their holy book.
    Why are you finding this incredible? One of the key reasons Trump came to power was the birther movement. Its not like a religious movement, it is a religious movement.
    Fair point, though I find it incredible that people steeped in politics for decades think enabling that sort of fanaticism is worth the institutional cost, or that they can steer the enraged bull they've unleashed.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    AnneJGP said:

    Alistair said:
    🤦🏽‍♀️ These people are truly something else.
    Demagogue. Pure and simple. The next few weeks will be an incredible test of the US constitution, whose authors tried to anticipate this moment.

    The problem is that constitution only works if both sides stick to norms. Only one side is.
    Someone (I think Isaac Asimov) wrote a story about a civilisation that was planned far into the future, but eventually an unforeseen anomaly cropped up, known as the Mule. Mr Trump has often brought that story to my mind. (Was it called Foundation, perhaps?)

    Good evening, everybody.
    Precisely - though I think Trump falls into the category of predictable social decadence.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    kle4 said:


    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.

    What I find more incredible is the various online defenders who genuine seem to believe that a Republican claiming something happened is itself proof that there's something dodgy going on which raises interesting questions.

    It's be like a religious person trying to prove a miracle by pointing to it being referenced in their holy book.
    Why are you finding this incredible? One of the key reasons Trump came to power was the birther movement. Its not like a religious movement, it is a religious movement.
    Yep. And a huge percentage believe Trump was sent by God. It's why he didn't lose. It is literally impossible, as an omnipotent being is directing events in his favour.
    The current events ought to be only a surprise to those who think the US is similar to the UK.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,630
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
    All-too-believably incompetent comms from No 10, I think.
    Well I don't know. Certainly the operation is usually a complete shambles, but you'd think finding IT literate people could still occur. I don't know why even very basic presentation stuff seems so hard for parties sometimes. Of the 2019 GE manifestos only the Green Party's properly hyperlinked the document for ease of use when first released
    Story of government & politics in general.

    The cabinet room in No 10 has less functionality as a meeting space than it did during WWI, for example...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602

    I guess any future lockdown will be dependent on Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1326276568583467009

    What does @SteveBakerHW stand for? I thought "hard man" would have been HM. The only thing I can think of is "hopeless w******"
  • Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    I think under 50’s are just last in the queue.
    Group 11 to ??
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6FK2RmVgGE
  • kinabalu i am surprised you are 82 i had you pegged as a millenial however just a thought that at your age you are perhaps slightly removed from things going on in the world today the world has changed a great deal even in the last 20 years you strike me as having a naive boomer 60s type mentality which is fair enough but not relevant to the world today
  • I guess any future lockdown will be dependent on Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1326276568583467009

    What does @SteveBakerHW stand for? I thought "hard man" would have been HM. The only thing I can think of is "hopeless w******"
    Half-wit?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    I guess any future lockdown will be dependent on Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1326276568583467009

    What does @SteveBakerHW stand for? I thought "hard man" would have been HM. The only thing I can think of is "hopeless w******"
    High Wycombe....
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited November 2020
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    ...

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    I think that is a route for Kamala to win


    With a health event for Joe, you mean?
    Or he just says he’s handing it over to her before he’s sworn in.

    What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
    Yup, think so
    Someone wants a grand at 1000 on Betfair Pence next Pres now!

    Fill your boots layers
    I wouldn't lay anything at 1000. Not even West Ham or Arsenal to win the Champions League this season when they aren't in it. Or even nearly in it.

    Why were you banned btw? Was it for being a "strutting right wing populist"?
    Sub 900 now, the move is afoot!

    I don’t know why, no ones telling, but that sounds like the kind of attention seeking self description I despise, so it wouldn’t be me saying it or admitting to it
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.

    What I find more incredible is the various online defenders who genuinely seem to believe that a Republican claiming something happened is itself proof that there's something dodgy going on which raises interesting questions.

    It's be like a religious person trying to prove a miracle by pointing to it being referenced in their holy book.
    Why are you finding this incredible? One of the key reasons Trump came to power was the birther movement. Its not like a religious movement, it is a religious movement.
    Fair point, though I find it incredible that people steeped in politics for decades think enabling that sort of fanaticism is worth the institutional cost, or that they can steer the enraged bull they've unleashed.
    As Trump frequently told them: “You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in.”
  • kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
    All-too-believably incompetent comms from No 10, I think.
    Well I don't know. Certainly the operation is usually a complete shambles, but you'd think finding IT literate people could still occur. I don't know why even very basic presentation stuff seems so hard for parties sometimes. Of the 2019 GE manifestos only the Green Party's properly hyperlinked the document for ease of use when first released
    Story of government & politics in general.

    The cabinet room in No 10 has less functionality as a meeting space than it did during WWI, for example...
    No. I made a living out of doing the IT side of this sort of thing for years. It just requires attention to detail and a simple understanding that computers are not the sort of thing you see in Hollywood or CSI where pressing CTRL-X deletes the alien invasion fleet or removes all data forever because there are no such things as backups.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602
    If Haspel is fired, then there aren't many grown-ups left in the Trump presidency.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    I guess any future lockdown will be dependent on Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1326276568583467009

    What does @SteveBakerHW stand for? I thought "hard man" would have been HM. The only thing I can think of is "hopeless w******"
    High Wycombe. Given his constituency.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    £8 wasted


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.

    There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.

    I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.

    A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.

    Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
    And we need to get 80%+ to take it.

    I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.

    I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
    I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
    For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
    Eradication is a decades long process.

    And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
    Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.
    Given we've failed to eradicate measles, I think thats a little optimistic.
    I think the pressure to eradicate this will be much greater and as soon as the vaccine proves to be safe there will be queues of people getting vaccinated because it unlocks normal life. Not getting a measles vaccination doesn't lead to having a half life.
    Don't get me wrong, I am as ecstatic about the vaccine news as you. And similarly think its a real example of where we've done tremendously well.

    However.

    I know lots of people who won't get it.

    I suspect we'll have Covid bumbling around at a very low level for decades, even in this country.

    But the point I am making is that if the vast majority of the vulnerable and elderly are vaccinated, a few million idiotic refuseniks isn't going to mean we have to continue wearing masks past next summer. It means a few idiotic refuseniks and, sadly, a few people who aren't able to have the vaccine, are going to catch a bad dose of it every year and perish....
    The manufacturing point is very specific

    They have the capability but essentially they have paused the process before reconstitution, fill & finish. They’ve done this because it is easier to store and has a longer shelf life - they did it at the point when they realised the data would take longer than they had originally hoped. It will just mean that it will be a little slower to build the initial stock
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602
    dixiedean said:

    I guess any future lockdown will be dependent on Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1326276568583467009

    What does @SteveBakerHW stand for? I thought "hard man" would have been HM. The only thing I can think of is "hopeless w******"
    High Wycombe. Given his constituency.
    I preferred my suggestion.
  • dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:


    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.

    What I find more incredible is the various online defenders who genuine seem to believe that a Republican claiming something happened is itself proof that there's something dodgy going on which raises interesting questions.

    It's be like a religious person trying to prove a miracle by pointing to it being referenced in their holy book.
    Why are you finding this incredible? One of the key reasons Trump came to power was the birther movement. Its not like a religious movement, it is a religious movement.
    Yep. And a huge percentage believe Trump was sent by God. It's why he didn't lose. It is literally impossible, as an omnipotent being is directing events in his favour.
    The current events ought to be only a surprise to those who think the US is similar to the UK.
    As it happens I am currently watching the mini-series 'John Adams'. The difference between the gentlemen portrayed at the first congress and the lying anti-democratic scum in the GOP in congress now is unbelievable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602
    edited November 2020
    You're fired? (Haspel, that is).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    MrEd said:

    I see the BYT has an opinion piece up in a fairly prominent place on its website page. Officially about the Argentinian Junta but, given where it's placed and the context, it reads easily as a fairly blatant call for crowds to gather outside Trump's officials households and workplaces to call for "justice".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/opinion/atencion-murderer-next-door-escrache-argentina.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    So, let me get this right.

    Trump actually calls for people to actually rise up and resist the stolen election.

    The New York Times runs a story about Argentina which is code for rising up and resisting a stolen election.

    Do I have that right?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    If Haspel is fired, then there aren't many grown-ups left in the Trump presidency.
    Here's a thought. What if Haspel refuses to go. And literally sits there denying reality, not accepting it, and launches multiple, spurious lawsuits, whilst ordering all the staff to continue as normal and firing anyone who disagrees?
    What then?
    There is a lot of it about after all.
  • dixiedean said:

    I guess any future lockdown will be dependent on Starmer.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1326276568583467009

    What does @SteveBakerHW stand for? I thought "hard man" would have been HM. The only thing I can think of is "hopeless w******"
    High Wycombe. Given his constituency.
    The Indian programmers in my development team thought it was Higgy Why-com-beee. I have thought of it that way ever since :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited November 2020

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    The Republican Party has gone stark, raving, bonkers. Utterly nuts.

    What I find more incredible is the various online defenders who genuinely seem to believe that a Republican claiming something happened is itself proof that there's something dodgy going on which raises interesting questions.

    It's be like a religious person trying to prove a miracle by pointing to it being referenced in their holy book.
    Why are you finding this incredible? One of the key reasons Trump came to power was the birther movement. Its not like a religious movement, it is a religious movement.
    Fair point, though I find it incredible that people steeped in politics for decades think enabling that sort of fanaticism is worth the institutional cost, or that they can steer the enraged bull they've unleashed.
    As Trump frequently told them: “You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in.”
    In the best traditions of Pericles himself

    "If you were persuaded by me to go to war because you thought I had the qualities necessary for leadership at least moderately more than other men, it is not right that I should now be blamed for doing wrong".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602
    Scott_xP said:
    Try explaining that to Mrs Browning, Dean!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Scott_xP said:
    He can self identify as whatever he likes, you Neanderthal
  • peter505 said:

    kinabalu i am surprised you are 82 i had you pegged as a millenial however just a thought that at your age you are perhaps slightly removed from things going on in the world today the world has changed a great deal even in the last 20 years you strike me as having a naive boomer 60s type mentality which is fair enough but not relevant to the world today

    What a ridiculous ageist comment

  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    He can self identify as whatever he likes, you Neanderthal
    Sorry, they can self identify as whoever they like, my bad
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    I see the BYT has an opinion piece up in a fairly prominent place on its website page. Officially about the Argentinian Junta but, given where it's placed and the context, it reads easily as a fairly blatant call for crowds to gather outside Trump's officials households and workplaces to call for "justice".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/10/opinion/atencion-murderer-next-door-escrache-argentina.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    So, let me get this right.

    Trump actually calls for people to actually rise up and resist the stolen election.

    The New York Times runs a story about Argentina which is code for rising up and resisting a stolen election.

    Do I have that right?
    Did I say Trump was right to do this? No. I've said it's a dangerous route a number of times.

    I also think it's wrong when you get people - like AOC - demanding there should be a file of Trump officials, which should be stored for future use.

    I see the Lincoln Project also doxxed two lawyers worked for the Trump team before they deleted the tweet. Do you think that is wrong or justified?

    Two wrongs don't make a right.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    He can self identify as whatever he likes, you Neanderthal
    It transpires Mr Browning was in actual fact quoting a constituent. He didn't make that clear. Hence lots of reverse ferret tweeting.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    You're fired? (Haspel, that is).
    Does McConnell do the firing?
  • Fake reports!! The Democrats issuing fake reports! I won! I WON!!!!! (stamps foot and turns a deeper shade of orange)
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Pence in 230 points, 770 to lay
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    You know the saying - there's no smoke without fire, and if you do find even one smouldering ember you may as well have stumbled upon the fiery river running into the depths of Tartarus.

    It's usually shortened.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,602

    You're fired? (Haspel, that is).
    Does McConnell do the firing?
    I don't know, but her departure for insubordination has been on the cards for a few days.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,468
    peter505 said:

    kinabalu i am surprised you are 82 i had you pegged as a millenial however just a thought that at your age you are perhaps slightly removed from things going on in the world today the world has changed a great deal even in the last 20 years you strike me as having a naive boomer 60s type mentality which is fair enough but not relevant to the world today

    Pillock
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
    I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
    Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
    Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
    Unbelievably incompetent comms from No 10.
    All-too-believably incompetent comms from No 10, I think.
    Well I don't know. Certainly the operation is usually a complete shambles, but you'd think finding IT literate people could still occur. I don't know why even very basic presentation stuff seems so hard for parties sometimes. Of the 2019 GE manifestos only the Green Party's properly hyperlinked the document for ease of use when first released
    Story of government & politics in general.

    The cabinet room in No 10 has less functionality as a meeting space than it did during WWI, for example...
    No. I made a living out of doing the IT side of this sort of thing for years. It just requires attention to detail and a simple understanding that computers are not the sort of thing you see in Hollywood or CSI where pressing CTRL-X deletes the alien invasion fleet or removes all data forever because there are no such things as backups.
    The people putting those comms graphics together are not IT people though are they?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    MrEd said:

    FPT:

    Chris Mullin MP regularly baited on TV some of the profession’s more pompous examples when fighting for the Birmingham 6. His diaries recount the comment of his fellow campaigner, Sir John Stokes MP, when asked what his fellow Tory-cum-lawyers thought of what he was doing: “Sh*ts, the lot of them.”

    Am I reading that correctly ?

    Was John Stokes, the former Halesowen MP, really a campaigner on behalf on the Birmingham Six ?

    I did think that, so I read his obituaries - couldn't see it mentioned anywhere
    Given that he once advocated shooting the "ring-leaders" of the British Leyland strikes, Petain-style, I'm going with a "probably not".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157
    edited November 2020

    peter505 said:

    kinabalu i am surprised you are 82 i had you pegged as a millenial however just a thought that at your age you are perhaps slightly removed from things going on in the world today the world has changed a great deal even in the last 20 years you strike me as having a naive boomer 60s type mentality which is fair enough but not relevant to the world today

    What a ridiculous ageist comment

    I like the way it's bothj ageist and youthist as well - poor Kinabalu can't win.
  • Doctors giving the jabs? Count me out then :smile:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    It’s remarkable that it’s remarkable the the British PM would do anything other than endorse the president elect. I am glad he did. But what have we become where it’s in doubt for a second?
This discussion has been closed.