What a shame this fine organisation, with its laudable support for election integrity, hadn't been formed a few weeks ago when GOP state governments were doing their best to stop people in urban areas voting and rather sinister people were forming armies of "poll watchers" to dissuade those in the "wrong" areas from voting.
I feel sure they'd have been appalled by it and done all they could to protect election integrity.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
4 years ago Trump won PA by 44.000 votes, MI by 11,000 and WI by 23,000 a total of 78,000 votes that decided the presidency, 78,000 votes that Trump declared gave him a a landslide. Currently Biden is up in PA by 48,000 , MI is nearly 150,000 and WI is 20,000 so 218,00 nearly 3 times the number. And thats not including AZ and GA. So yes the election is over. Sadly the fallout and political war is far from over. Trump isn't overturning this election but he will surely make it as big a mess as he can going forward
I don't think anyone really knows what Trump's legal strategy is. He doesn't appear to have one.
So the legal cases are either designed simply to raise a lot of money to be diverted to campaign debts and/or line his pocket, or they are just intended to buy time until something turns up. Maybe a war or something that calls for a declaration of a national emergency that prevents the electoral college from assembling or something.
I don't think Trump and his cheerleaders expect to overturn the EVs, I think this is more about causing the maximum amount of disruption and anger he can and to keep the US totally split. Trump by nature is a bully. Even if Biden wins GA and AZ when the dust settles and gets to the same number of EVs Trump did 4 years (and that he called a landslide!) he isn't accepting it. Him being a sore and bitter loser is priced in to most of the GOP and a huge proportion of the 70 million who voted for him sadly.
I think this is absolutely on the nose. Overturning at this point would probably be a bonus (as it stymies a number of coming legal problems) but it's more about attention, money and power than the presidency.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
Andrew Neil not making himself popular by pointing out 95% of the back of the queue stuff the press have written in the past week has been complete and utter garbage of the first order.
You can be a Catholic and a Jewish Tory if you are also a monarchist and Unionist, you cannot however be an atheist, who wants to abolish the monarchy and break up the Union as you do and still be a Tory
The more I read comments like this, the more it becomes obvious I can never be a Tory.
The behaviour of the Bluekippers are persuading me that Scotland and N Ireland are best served by leaving the UK.
BTW - I have the atheist bit all sorted out
As for the monarchy - a historic relic that still poisons English society by providing a framework for the wretched "Class system" and its associated attitudes. It needs to go.
Yes, you're yet another one who wants to blow up the whole ship because you've been driven mad by Brexit, and sense it will drive mad in turn those who advocated for it.
I remember when you were posting on here regularly as a "Better Off Out" poster.
Your arguments and style were embarrassing then and are no less embarrassing now.
The problem was that in my BOO days I had not really considered the problem and why would I? There was no prospect of leaving at that time.
Then everything changed.
When I looked at the argument in depth, it became clear that BOO was not going to work well and I changed my position (as per the quote from J M Keynes).
I have not been driven mad by Brexit - why should I? I am immune to Brexit thanks to my Irish citizenship. It is the Leavers who are going mad because their pet project is not going to plan. They are the ones running around blaming anyone and anything.
The trouble is Beverley there is never any nuance or measuredness to your argument: you've gone from vociferously venting well to my right flank and then you quickly skedaddled after the vote to the other side and now are vociferously venting at me from the left-flank whilst undergoing a complete values shift in the process. There's no consistency at all except the use of a lot of smilies, and throwing barbs at the fundamentals of the British state.
Why would I take that seriously or want to engage with it?
The only major change I made in my position has been over shifting away from BOO. The other change you are referring to (skedaddling) to the left is the resultant of a minor shift leftward by me and a massive lurch to the right by the Conservatives.
As for the smileys, we have a comedian for PM. The only thing left to do is laugh.
Ok, but you must know that arguing for the break-up of the UK (or at least being agnostic about it) and for the abolition of monarchy and dismissive of other British institutions is bound to provoke a strong response.
If I need to be more tolerant of those who have multi-layered identities (and I do) then perhaps you need to be more so of the British one, because these are the building blocks that keep everything else stable.
My problem is that my sense of Britishness has been massively diminished, but not by Brexit. It has been caused by the UKIP sympathisers that infest a lot of the Conservative Party (think ERG plus some of the new Boris-loyal intake).
I cannot interchange Britishness with Englishness like many of them seem to do because I am not English. In fact their pronouncements and actions make me value the establishment less and less to the point that I feel I have a much better understanding of the Scottish viewpoint. I certainly have a lot more sympathy with the Scots and to a certain extent Brexit validates Scottish Indy - if it is valid for Britain to "Take Back Control" then it is valid for Scotland too.
The truth of the matter is that if the govt had been competent in organising itself and its affairs over the last few years then I would be less adrift. But the core of the problem is that there has been so much incompetence, stupidity and posturing that I would be embarrassed to whip out a British passport when aboard. It is hard to be a citizen of a laughing stock.
Thanks. That makes more sense, and I understand that.
I've always wanted a sensible rational deal that we can coalesce around (notwithstanding how we voted in the EURef) and that we can all then move on from, and build on. And I don't want to be laughed at either.
I don't want to see you go by the way. Hope you decide to stay.
I have said may times that I would accept an EEA deal. What I will not accept is the sort of isolationism so prized by the extremists.
Ideally, I'd settle for an outer common market only ring with Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, UK and Turkey all in it -with weighted votes - but no political union, and a level of qualification and brake on free movement.
The European political and economic arrangements just need much more flexibility, and I don't think that's a threat to the core EU. Countries should be able to move into and out of it if they want to.
Yes, but fantasy unicorn Brexits don't play in the real world.
What you propose is a vassal state Brexit, where we follow the rules of others. Full membership is the only way to help set the rules, or full exit.
532 covid deaths in the UK reported today. Backdating blah blah, weekend effect etc etc. That's an appalling number.
what? surely some mistake?
I agree its a horrendous headline number, I know there will be caveats and the Murder Tuesday quotes, but its still awful. Thank god the news on the vaccine front seems very positive. That was always the way out of this and the fact it may begin roll out as soon as the end of the year or early next is great news. But until then sadly these numbers like today are still going to be around.
Fuck. And we're probably still weeks from peak deaths. November is going be just fucking awful.
Unlikely. We haven't seen the cases rise in a while. This should be the peak.
We can hope so, though the ZOE data for my bit of NE London has started increasing sharply again after a week or so of gentle decline. Now that's one borough, but the timings are pretty consistent with a strong school effect. As for the national total, that could be a decrease from high rates in the places which were in T3, combined with an increase from a lower base in the rest of the country. The effect of Lockdown 2 (Electric Avenue) should kick in in the stats towards the end of this week, shouldn't they?
Though even with Trump winning North Carolina he would still need to win Pennsylvania and Georgia and Arizona to win the Presidency, as of now this election most resembles the 1976 election which Carter won by 50% to 48% for President Ford and 297 to 240 EC votes
It just wasn't comment about black players, he's guilty of the worst stereotyping.
The BBC news tv report that was just on was highly misleading. They only covered the fact he used the term coloured and made an absolute massive deal out of how racist this is, when actually it was a whole range of things...gay is a life style choice...christ alive.
Little girls don't want balls kicked hard at them.
To be fair in regards to that, I believe he said that is what coaches told him? I don't know the context. Was he saying this is what coaches say, thus girls are crap at football or was he saying coaches say this and thus we need to change coaching? I honestly don't know.
As the head of a large organisation he ought not to leave any doubt.
Well he is clearly as thick as mince. Even a sexist racist homophobe in front of parliamentary select committee would know some stock responses e.g. why no openly gay players...has in the past been a hostile environment, concerns about how fans react, other sports like rugby been better, we strive to do more to make it such that should a player wish to come out they know there will be full backing and support....instead, well its a lifestyle choice innit.
People acquainted with the FA only through its public perception may be deceived into thinking it is a somewhat incompetent, antiquated, corrupt and self-serving organsiation. Those of us who know it more from direct experience can assure them that the reality is indeed far worse than that.
I don't think anyone really knows what Trump's legal strategy is. He doesn't appear to have one.
So the legal cases are either designed simply to raise a lot of money to be diverted to campaign debts and/or line his pocket, or they are just intended to buy time until something turns up. Maybe a war or something that calls for a declaration of a national emergency that prevents the electoral college from assembling or something.
I don't think Trump and his cheerleaders expect to overturn the EVs, I think this is more about causing the maximum amount of disruption and anger he can and to keep the US totally split. Trump by nature is a bully. Even if Biden wins GA and AZ when the dust settles and gets to the same number of EVs Trump did 4 years (and that he called a landslide!) he isn't accepting it. Him being a sore and bitter loser is priced in to most of the GOP and a huge proportion of the 70 million who voted for him sadly.
One thing Biden is doing is NOT playing Trump's game right now. Just busily prepping up his transition team.
Probably all he can do, but I have some sympathy with the view that while not playing the game usually works, sometimes it causes the other person to get mad and flip over the board.
Finally realised there are not enough ballots to bridge the gap even if 100% Biden.
Your analysis is very persuasive, but NYTimes claims there are still 186,584 votes to count, and a 75,000 vote margin. You make an excellent case for why the votes remaining to be counted are wrong - but I don't think it's *technically* impossible right now.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
I think this is vaguely reassuring. Even if i think hugely misguided. These people need to speak out. It's far too dangerous otherwise. Trump is taking succour from their silence.
I don't quite but that they are afraid of Trump himself, or the idea that Trump will fill the RNCs coffers somehow. To me it is the base making them nervous, and this linked article on Georgia feels closer to the real reasoning here:
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
But he still has to persuade multiple courts to order that the election results in three states need to be overturned.
Election results, I would note, that will have been certified by the local elected, Republican, Secretaries of State.
And so far, Trump has lost 12, and won 0 cases.
Indeed, there isn't even a lawsuit filed that alleges fraud at a level that would even get close to the required level to even demand a "do over". 53 ballots - as alleged in one - is a pinprick against a 75,000 vote cushion.
After a few days break from the election result (or results if you buy in to Trumps pathetic loser position) I see that if anything more republican barricades are going up. It seems to me that Trumps strategy is what it always is to grind people down , to bully , to spread enough lies and fake news to overwhelm the actual facts. Is there any chance of the election being overturned? None, in my view for the reasons Robert gave earlier about the mountain Trump needs to climb. However IMO thats not his game here, his game is to disrupt, keep half the population (or at least his devotees and the sycophants around him in the GOP) on board and make Biden's position as difficult and messy as possible. He will continue to do this as long as he has enough support which sadly may be a very long time. So I expect this to drag on and on, with Trump, his hatchet men, like the odious Giuliani and his rabid supporters turning this election and the so called bastion of US democracy into some kind of guerilla war. It's pathetic but let's be honest 100% in character for Trump. Buckle up America, Its going to be messy.
An accurate take. All of this crap is not a serious attempt to stay in office - that is simply Not Happening - it's positioning for how he leaves office and how his brand looks (to his base) afterwards. Betfair should have settled the market on the PA call but they are now (happily in their case) locked in because people are trading it in size and there is no distinct and obvious "event" to bring the curtain down. But as a bet, 1.09 Biden is spectacular and I was happy to reinvest a big chunk of my WH2020 profits on it. It has the added moral glow of effectively betting that America will remain a functioning democracy rather than descend into a place that the word "dark" does no justice to. And it's nice, when you can, to bet on the benign outcome.
Usually it would be difficult for the Democrats to get the same high turnout at a special election that we just had on 3rd November. Maybe this time will be different though.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
On 47k lead at the moment. 😶. But we should expect the unexpected though not expect the expected is what I’m trying to say.
Yes, the challenges are appropriate, even the ones already dismissed for haing no evidence or being logically and legally absurd.
I'm struggling to follow the plot with these guys. Now they want every vote counted? Pretty sure they wanted the counting stopped a couple of days ago.
I agree, but let's not forget that many Democrats spent 4 years saying Trump's election win was potentially illegitimate because of allegations of Russian collusion that turned out to be false.
While the news about the Pfizer vaccine is undoubtedly welcome, I'm still far from clear as to when large-scale vaccination will be possible and what this will entail.
There is a deal of contradictory information and possibly misinformation out there - one moment, I'm reading mass vaccination will begin next month, then I read it's not likely until Easter. In one place, I read a number of volunteers have complained of side effects while somewhere else claims no problems.
I also read it's not one injection but two 3-4 weeks apart. Fair enough, will this be an annual ritual or will it be a once(or should that be twice)-and-for-all event?
I hope it will be free in the UK for all and it will be made available at no cost to poorer countries. How will places like Yemen get the vaccine and deliver it? How will the world ensure certain corrupt regimes won't keep the vaccine for the elite or the favoured and leave the rest of the population without any protection?
The logistics and the practicalities run into the politics, the economics and the morality.
Mrs Stodge isn't keen having read on the Mail about side effects among volunteers and I must confess I have some doubts. When I used to be a programmer back in the Dark Ages, I never liked the idea of being at the cutting edge as it always felt more like the bleeding edge.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
Biden has already won PA and AZ. If pushed, I'd also predict GA too. It's over. Trump might be in your head but he isn't in mine. He can't win because he has already lost.
Biden won. Get used to it, because that's just how things are.
Whilst the GOP play toadying lickspittles to Trump, there's about to be a huge MAGA march right into the heart of Dem territory, DC. Trump will probably declare martial law when the inevitable violence breaks out.
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
Agreed, which perhaps makes the betfair 1.09 stronger. It would be very hard for Betfair to justify paying out on Trump given the blurb about projected EC votes and it leading to civil war, my guess is they would void in such a scenario.
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
532 covid deaths in the UK reported today. Backdating blah blah, weekend effect etc etc. That's an appalling number.
what? surely some mistake?
I agree its a horrendous headline number, I know there will be caveats and the Murder Tuesday quotes, but its still awful. Thank god the news on the vaccine front seems very positive. That was always the way out of this and the fact it may begin roll out as soon as the end of the year or early next is great news. But until then sadly these numbers like today are still going to be around.
Fuck. And we're probably still weeks from peak deaths. November is going be just fucking awful.
Unlikely. We haven't seen the cases rise in a while. This should be the peak.
We can hope so, though the ZOE data for my bit of NE London has started increasing sharply again after a week or so of gentle decline. Now that's one borough, but the timings are pretty consistent with a strong school effect. As for the national total, that could be a decrease from high rates in the places which were in T3, combined with an increase from a lower base in the rest of the country. The effect of Lockdown 2 (Electric Avenue) should kick in in the stats towards the end of this week, shouldn't they?
How do you access the Zoe data at that level? I’ve only seen regional data?
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
Agreed, which perhaps makes the betfair 1.09 stronger. It would be very hard for Betfair to justify paying out on Trump given the blurb about projected EC votes and it leading to civil war, my guess is they would void in such a scenario.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
Whilst the GOP play toadying lickspittles to Trump, there's about to be a huge MAGA march right into the heart of Dem territory, DC. Trump will probably declare martial law when the inevitable violence breaks out.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
Agreed, which perhaps makes the betfair 1.09 stronger. It would be very hard for Betfair to justify paying out on Trump given the blurb about projected EC votes and it leading to civil war, my guess is they would void in such a scenario.
They best bloody not, I'm greened up !
I'd prefer civil war to Betfair voiding the market, the very worst of fates.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
Just on a technical point, how can they have fifty witnesses to something that they were prevented from observing?
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
Why would the Supreme Court hand those over?
Indeed, given that they have ruled (usually 9-0) against Trump on pretty much every case that's reached them in the last four years, why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result (and a not particularly close one at that) and risk civil war?
... Mrs Stodge isn't keen having read on the Mail about side effects among volunteers and I must confess I have some doubts. ...
Ah, there's your mistake right there. To paraphrase Mervyn Griffith-Jones at the Lady Chatterley trial, "Is the Mail a publication that you would wish your wife or your servants to read?"
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
But he still has to persuade multiple courts to order that the election results in three states need to be overturned.
Election results, I would note, that will have been certified by the local elected, Republican, Secretaries of State.
And so far, Trump has lost 12, and won 0 cases.
Indeed, there isn't even a lawsuit filed that alleges fraud at a level that would even get close to the required level to even demand a "do over". 53 ballots - as alleged in one - is a pinprick against a 75,000 vote cushion.
Yes totally agree. That is very rational thinking. It’s right to assume the under pressure republicans stand up for the fair result. But maybe he can bend it in a completely different way we haven’t foreseen yet? To move the legal goalposts.
Yes, the challenges are appropriate, even the ones already dismissed for haing no evidence or being logically and legally absurd.
I'm struggling to follow the plot with these guys. Now they want every vote counted? Pretty sure they wanted the counting stopped a couple of days ago.
No, no, no. They want them counted until they are in front and then they want to stop.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
Biden has already won PA and AZ. If pushed, I'd also predict GA too. It's over. Trump might be in your head but he isn't in mine. He can't win because he has already lost.
Biden won. Get used to it, because that's just how things are.
He has but interestingly Trump will be the first presidential candidate to have lost the general election after winning both Florida and Ohio since Nixon in 1960, suggesting Pennsylvania and maybe Arizona have now likely overtaken them as the key swing states for the time being
While the news about the Pfizer vaccine is undoubtedly welcome, I'm still far from clear as to when large-scale vaccination will be possible and what this will entail.
There is a deal of contradictory information and possibly misinformation out there - one moment, I'm reading mass vaccination will begin next month, then I read it's not likely until Easter. In one place, I read a number of volunteers have complained of side effects while somewhere else claims no problems.
I also read it's not one injection but two 3-4 weeks apart. Fair enough, will this be an annual ritual or will it be a once(or should that be twice)-and-for-all event?
I hope it will be free in the UK for all and it will be made available at no cost to poorer countries. How will places like Yemen get the vaccine and deliver it? How will the world ensure certain corrupt regimes won't keep the vaccine for the elite or the favoured and leave the rest of the population without any protection?
The logistics and the practicalities run into the politics, the economics and the morality.
Mrs Stodge isn't keen having read on the Mail about side effects among volunteers and I must confess I have some doubts. When I used to be a programmer back in the Dark Ages, I never liked the idea of being at the cutting edge as it always felt more like the bleeding edge.
It’ll def take a while to get to all, but I expect fairly quick mhra approval and rollout to the highest risk this side of Christmas. Probably by Easter we should have had a significant chunk of the pop done. Done forget other vaccines are close and will likely be used in parallel, esp if it’s the oxford one which is easier to store/distribute. It’s going to be a long road for those of us under 50. Don’t expect all the mitigation’s you be dropped for a long while yet.
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
Why would the Supreme Court hand those over?
Indeed, given that they have ruled (usually 9-0) against Trump on pretty much every case that's reached them in the last four years, why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result (and a not particularly close one at that) and risk civil war?
“ why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result‘
... Mrs Stodge isn't keen having read on the Mail about side effects among volunteers and I must confess I have some doubts. ...
Ah, there's your mistake right there. To paraphrase Mervyn Griffith-Jones at the Lady Chatterley trial, "Is the Mail a publication that you would wish your wife or your servants to read?"
I agree - I obviously won't have the paper in the house - if she wants to read a newspaper, my copy of the Racing Post is available the next day.
Unfortunately since she discovered the Interweb, she has started to develop some disconcerting ideas and views.
why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result (and a not particularly close one at that) and risk civil war?
If they think they risk civil war if they don't overturn it...
Are they less likely to get shot by a Biden supporter than a Trump supporter?
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
But he still has to persuade multiple courts to order that the election results in three states need to be overturned.
Election results, I would note, that will have been certified by the local elected, Republican, Secretaries of State.
And so far, Trump has lost 12, and won 0 cases.
Indeed, there isn't even a lawsuit filed that alleges fraud at a level that would even get close to the required level to even demand a "do over". 53 ballots - as alleged in one - is a pinprick against a 75,000 vote cushion.
Yes totally agree. That is very rational thinking. It’s right to assume the under pressure republicans stand up for the fair result. But maybe he can bend it in a completely different way we haven’t foreseen yet? To move the legal goalposts.
This theory seems to rest on the belief the Supreme Court are big Trump fans.
They're not.
Indeed, Trump keeps losing there - often in 9-0 decisions.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
But he still has to persuade multiple courts to order that the election results in three states need to be overturned.
Election results, I would note, that will have been certified by the local elected, Republican, Secretaries of State.
And so far, Trump has lost 12, and won 0 cases.
Indeed, there isn't even a lawsuit filed that alleges fraud at a level that would even get close to the required level to even demand a "do over". 53 ballots - as alleged in one - is a pinprick against a 75,000 vote cushion.
Yes totally agree. That is very rational thinking. It’s right to assume the under pressure republicans stand up for the fair result. But maybe he can bend it in a completely different way we haven’t foreseen yet? To move the legal goalposts.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
But he still has to persuade multiple courts to order that the election results in three states need to be overturned.
Election results, I would note, that will have been certified by the local elected, Republican, Secretaries of State.
And so far, Trump has lost 12, and won 0 cases.
Indeed, there isn't even a lawsuit filed that alleges fraud at a level that would even get close to the required level to even demand a "do over". 53 ballots - as alleged in one - is a pinprick against a 75,000 vote cushion.
Yes totally agree. That is very rational thinking. It’s right to assume the under pressure republicans stand up for the fair result. But maybe he can bend it in a completely different way we haven’t foreseen yet? To move the legal goalposts.
You mean he may get away with cheating? Possibly. If he does, the USA is no longer a democracy.
While the news about the Pfizer vaccine is undoubtedly welcome, I'm still far from clear as to when large-scale vaccination will be possible and what this will entail.
There is a deal of contradictory information and possibly misinformation out there - one moment, I'm reading mass vaccination will begin next month, then I read it's not likely until Easter. In one place, I read a number of volunteers have complained of side effects while somewhere else claims no problems.
I also read it's not one injection but two 3-4 weeks apart. Fair enough, will this be an annual ritual or will it be a once(or should that be twice)-and-for-all event?
I hope it will be free in the UK for all and it will be made available at no cost to poorer countries. How will places like Yemen get the vaccine and deliver it? How will the world ensure certain corrupt regimes won't keep the vaccine for the elite or the favoured and leave the rest of the population without any protection?
The logistics and the practicalities run into the politics, the economics and the morality.
Mrs Stodge isn't keen having read on the Mail about side effects among volunteers and I must confess I have some doubts. When I used to be a programmer back in the Dark Ages, I never liked the idea of being at the cutting edge as it always felt more like the bleeding edge.
Well, look at the side effects of that angina drug Pfizer trialled a few years back. Mrs Stodge is right to be fearful.
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
Why would the Supreme Court hand those over?
Indeed, given that they have ruled (usually 9-0) against Trump on pretty much every case that's reached them in the last four years, why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result (and a not particularly close one at that) and risk civil war?
Some of the cases are not being brought by Trump, as I understand it, but by the attorney generals of other states.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
That’s correct. There was a number of observers other than zero, or something. That’s not one that will work.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
But none of that is true is it. The issue was only on the distance away observers had to stand.
Just because trump says something doesn't make true. As a rule, as we have seen, the opposite is usually true.
Sadly i think you guys are underestimating trumps chances of overturning the result. Watch Steve Bannons warroom they seem pretty confident plus they have giuliani on side who took down the five families. Remember our media has a very strong anti trump bias so we get a very skewed impression over here. They are concentrating on Pennsylvania where many ballots arrived after the cutoff time. In fact some services have already withdrawn that state from biden. Remember the likes of robert moore on itv cant hide their bias i get it he hates trump but this filters through to how we perceive things
Hi Peter - welcome.
I think your view is a minority one, but interesting. My sense is that the GOP is not seriously expecting to have Trump reelected (this year, anyway), but they want to raise enough dust to cast doubt on the concept of Biden having a mandate.
On topic, although I was sceptical the other day, quite a few people seem to be expecting a split result with Perdue winning but not his colleague. I'd have thought the Democrats have a fair shot at both.
Key strategic consideration for post-EDay runoff elections, such as the upcoming Georgia double runoff for US Senator, is that voter turnout is almost always LOWER for the runoff than for the regular election.
Which in the not-so-distant past has favored Republicans in places like Georgia and Louisiana, because voter turnout among GOP base voters, esp. White rural AND suburban residents, was significantly higher than turnout from Democratic base voters, in particular rural and urban Blacks.
HOWEVER, the strong shift of Peach State suburbanites away from Trump & the GOP and toward the Democrats changes the equation, in a way that certainly does NOT guarantee a win for Ossoff and/or Warnock, but definitely makes victory over Perdue and/or Loeffler possible.
Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
Andrew Neil not making himself popular by pointing out 95% of the back of the queue stuff the press have written in the past week has been complete and utter garbage of the first order.
This is clearly taking time away from writing his weekly Sweden Covid update.
... Mrs Stodge isn't keen having read on the Mail about side effects among volunteers and I must confess I have some doubts. ...
Ah, there's your mistake right there. To paraphrase Mervyn Griffith-Jones at the Lady Chatterley trial, "Is the Mail a publication that you would wish your wife or your servants to read?"
A peer was asked in a debate in the Lords whether he’d be happy if his daughter read it.
His reply was brilliant.
‘I have no objection to my daughter reading it. Indeed, she already has, and thought it quite boring. But I have strictly forbidden her to let my gamekeeper read it.’
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Could you link to the lawsuit please?
No I really can't. But I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT (so that the rest of you don;t have to, you're welcome). These are just my interpretations and I am not a lawyer.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
Yes, yes, I his is the wish fulfilment fantasy I come to PB.com for.
I agree, but let's not forget that many Democrats spent 4 years saying Trump's election win was potentially illegitimate because of allegations of Russian collusion that turned out to be false.
Wut? Have you read the Mueller report? Or the Senate report? Or the tweets from the Trumps where they admitted to attempting to collude with Russians?
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Could you link to the lawsuit please?
No I really can't. But I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT (so that the rest of you don;t have to, you're welcome). These are just my interpretations and I am not a lawyer.
LOL. The GOP admitted IN COURT that they had a 'non-zero' number of observers in the count at all times.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Expert on Pennsylvania electoral law are you?
No, I am no lawyer and these are just my interpretations.
But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
But he still has to persuade multiple courts to order that the election results in three states need to be overturned.
Election results, I would note, that will have been certified by the local elected, Republican, Secretaries of State.
And so far, Trump has lost 12, and won 0 cases.
Indeed, there isn't even a lawsuit filed that alleges fraud at a level that would even get close to the required level to even demand a "do over". 53 ballots - as alleged in one - is a pinprick against a 75,000 vote cushion.
Yes totally agree. That is very rational thinking. It’s right to assume the under pressure republicans stand up for the fair result. But maybe he can bend it in a completely different way we haven’t foreseen yet? To move the legal goalposts.
This theory seems to rest on the belief the Supreme Court are big Trump fans.
They're not.
Indeed, Trump keeps losing there - often in 9-0 decisions.
I find the fact that some PBers seem to think that the SC court will reverse the election simply because its 'Trump' extremely odd. Regardless of any leaning or bias these are SC judges, not puppets. To my mind there is almost no chance of any states being reversed let alone 3. Trump may get a few small victories like the late postals and observers being 200cm away instead of 180cm from the counting but thats it, his record so far is 1-10 or something I think and that trend is going to continue. Trumps game here realistically isn't to overturn the election its to make half the population or as close as he can get to think it should be. People mention 'civil' war' but sadly the divisions here are so deep that Trump simply needs to promote the fact he was cheated to cause enough waves to make the next weeks and months a total nightmare. But thinking the SC is going to just overturn the election 'because its Trump' is ridiculous.
PB has an excellent tradition of welcoming new posters and whilst some may not share the view of @peter505 it's pretty shabby to attack him in such a fashion.
Welcome @peter505 . We are for the most part a pretty friendly mob. Just be careful of considering donating to @Peter_the_Punter and his feather boa fund - it's a ticklish issue here ....
No it isn't shabby. Wise up FFS.
We clearly have different standards.
PB is not an echo chamber for your views.
PB has always prided itself on have a diversity of view and if you can't cope with that then perhaps this forum isn't the place for you.
- Biden wins election or - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election or - Civil war
Agreed, which perhaps makes the betfair 1.09 stronger. It would be very hard for Betfair to justify paying out on Trump given the blurb about projected EC votes and it leading to civil war, my guess is they would void in such a scenario.
They best bloody not, I'm greened up !
I'd prefer civil war to Betfair voiding the market, the very worst of fates.
(ducks)
Betfair could pull a Georgia Senate election and change the rules randomly.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Could you link to the lawsuit please?
No I really can't. But I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT (so that the rest of you don;t have to, you're welcome). These are just my interpretations and I am not a lawyer.
LOL. The GOP admitted IN COURT that they had a 'non-zero' number of observers in the count at all times.
'In the count' may not be the point. The point may be whether the ballots were observable.
Comments
I feel sure they'd have been appalled by it and done all they could to protect election integrity.
Currently Biden is up in PA by 48,000 , MI is nearly 150,000 and WI is 20,000 so 218,00 nearly 3 times the number. And thats not including AZ and GA.
So yes the election is over. Sadly the fallout and political war is far from over. Trump isn't overturning this election but he will surely make it as big a mess as he can going forward
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
As for the national total, that could be a decrease from high rates in the places which were in T3, combined with an increase from a lower base in the rest of the country.
The effect of Lockdown 2 (Electric Avenue) should kick in in the stats towards the end of this week, shouldn't they?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/politics/mitch-mcconnell-donald-trump-conceding/index.html
Election results, I would note, that will have been certified by the local elected, Republican, Secretaries of State.
And so far, Trump has lost 12, and won 0 cases.
Indeed, there isn't even a lawsuit filed that alleges fraud at a level that would even get close to the required level to even demand a "do over". 53 ballots - as alleged in one - is a pinprick against a 75,000 vote cushion.
Usually it would be difficult for the Democrats to get the same high turnout at a special election that we just had on 3rd November. Maybe this time will be different though.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
- Biden wins election
or
- Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins
They are:
- Biden wins election
or
- Civil war
While the news about the Pfizer vaccine is undoubtedly welcome, I'm still far from clear as to when large-scale vaccination will be possible and what this will entail.
There is a deal of contradictory information and possibly misinformation out there - one moment, I'm reading mass vaccination will begin next month, then I read it's not likely until Easter. In one place, I read a number of volunteers have complained of side effects while somewhere else claims no problems.
I also read it's not one injection but two 3-4 weeks apart. Fair enough, will this be an annual ritual or will it be a once(or should that be twice)-and-for-all event?
I hope it will be free in the UK for all and it will be made available at no cost to poorer countries. How will places like Yemen get the vaccine and deliver it? How will the world ensure certain corrupt regimes won't keep the vaccine for the elite or the favoured and leave the rest of the population without any protection?
The logistics and the practicalities run into the politics, the economics and the morality.
Mrs Stodge isn't keen having read on the Mail about side effects among volunteers and I must confess I have some doubts. When I used to be a programmer back in the Dark Ages, I never liked the idea of being at the cutting edge as it always felt more like the bleeding edge.
It's over. Trump might be in your head but he isn't in mine. He can't win because he has already lost.
Biden won. Get used to it, because that's just how things are.
They will very probably take the bait.
Not sure he'd win. Most of the US military would likely move straight to the President-Elect leaving Trump with just mob militas.
Bit then you are a contrarian, so I guess that is ok.
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
(2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
(3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
It's a past event. People are being so gullible.
You can see why Trump gets away with so much.
(ducks)
Indeed, given that they have ruled (usually 9-0) against Trump on pretty much every case that's reached them in the last four years, why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result (and a not particularly close one at that) and risk civil war?
Perfectly understandable.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Because that is what Trump is thinking isn’t it?
Unfortunately since she discovered the Interweb, she has started to develop some disconcerting ideas and views.
Are they less likely to get shot by a Biden supporter than a Trump supporter?
They're not.
Indeed, Trump keeps losing there - often in 9-0 decisions.
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com
Possible.
Judge: Did you have any observers in the room?
Lawyer: There were a non-zero number...
4D chess. Owning the libs. Something something beta.
He would have to change laws retrospectively...
Just because trump says something doesn't make true. As a rule, as we have seen, the opposite is usually true.
Which in the not-so-distant past has favored Republicans in places like Georgia and Louisiana, because voter turnout among GOP base voters, esp. White rural AND suburban residents, was significantly higher than turnout from Democratic base voters, in particular rural and urban Blacks.
HOWEVER, the strong shift of Peach State suburbanites away from Trump & the GOP and toward the Democrats changes the equation, in a way that certainly does NOT guarantee a win for Ossoff and/or Warnock, but definitely makes victory over Perdue and/or Loeffler possible.
He should get back to that forthwith.
His reply was brilliant.
‘I have no objection to my daughter reading it. Indeed, she already has, and thought it quite boring. But I have strictly forbidden her to let my gamekeeper read it.’
The kind of people who answer polls are really weird, and it’s ruining polling.
By Dylan Matthews"
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor
Inject this into my veins.
But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
Trumps game here realistically isn't to overturn the election its to make half the population or as close as he can get to think it should be. People mention 'civil' war' but sadly the divisions here are so deep that Trump simply needs to promote the fact he was cheated to cause enough waves to make the next weeks and months a total nightmare.
But thinking the SC is going to just overturn the election 'because its Trump' is ridiculous.