Trump lawsuits. This video uploaded earlier today runs through the various Trump lawsuits, what they claimed, why they were (mostly) dismissed, and why Pennsylvania cases might be different.
I expect the Trump administration to prevail and prevent the counting of late arriving ballots in PA. The legislature said they needed to be recieved by election day. The State Supreme Court said they could arrive up to three days late because of postal delays. (Postal delays, I would add, that the Trump administration aided and abetted.) But I think the SC will say that the legislature has spoken, and that the State Supreme Court cannot overturn it.
That will not change the PA vote, because those ballots have been set aside and have not been counted pending a decision.
The key points for me, besides the legal ones, were that:-
1) this is different from Florida 2000 where 500 disputed votes tipped a large state with (then) 25 electoral college delegates; 2) GOP media claims of fraud are far wider than the narrow points made in court, and even here they are often dismissed for lack of evidence.
But it was interesting to see the run-through, case by case, state by state.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Expert on Pennsylvania electoral law are you?
No, I am no lawyer and these are just my interpretations.
But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
It doesn't matter how many times you repeat an untrue statement it is still untrue.
I decided in the spirit of science to try this....
So I read a massive from Giuliani on election fraud. 10 times. Literally.
It's still false.
A point for the graph.....
Without wishing to offend the religious, one of the reasons organised religions have been so influential through history is that they repeat lies endlessly, repeatedly and with great conviction until more and more followers believe them. At that point, the lies are effectively true for those who operate within their domain, even if the lies never actually become true.
Trumpism is better understood as a religious movement or cult rather than a rational, scientific movement.
One thing has always afforded me amusement - being told by atheists of progressive intent, that one religion or the other is more "true" or "beautiful" than another.
To some, the statement that Mormonism is exactly as worthy of respect as religion X, is actually offensive.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage...
So far, Trumps "evidence" has failed in every court. With his appeal in Michigan he did not even file the relevant documents to prove his argument. IIRC, he has about 2½ weeks to get his act together before the case will be thrown out as a waste of time.
One further point - and it may only be a Michigan thing - whichever lawyer filed the complaint has to sign it off as part of the submission process. If the complaint is frivolous or wrong or incomplete, that lawyer can expect a censure or reprimand and perhaps even a suspension of their licence to practice.
If other states have similar laws, it may explain the reluctance of "heavy-hitter" lawyers to get involved.
this is a political betting site. You may hate Trump i may hate Trump but dont let bias blind us to reality that perhaps Bidens odds are too short for the presidency
The more interesting bit of those whole row re the legitimacy of the vote is what Biden is not saying. He's essentially allowed Trump to set a narrative where news about the election result has become about allegations of fraud and being "stolen" rather than what he will do in his Administration.
Now, you can say that doesn't matter, or that Biden is trying to be non-confrontational, but he hasn't challenged strongly the belief in grip the Republican base that the election has been stolen. It makes no sense. At the very least, it is likely to motivate GOP voters in the mid-terms and give McConnell the perfect excuse not to co-operate and stall Biden's proposals if he so wants.
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
Well, you may, but given that all your posts so far have regurgitated his increasingly unhinged lies about the state of the election it doesn’t seem very likely.
this is a political betting site. You may hate Trump i may hate Trump but dont let bias blind us to reality that perhaps Bidens odds are too short for the presidency
at 1.09/1.10?
Maybe, but I don't see it at all. The price in my view should be 1.01/1.02. However I'm licking my wounds in all this (all red 2.5k) after betting that Tulsi Gabbard would win, and the opposing Biden.
Not sure if you're new to be or just and infrequent poster - but hi anyway.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
Chris Mullin MP regularly baited on TV some of the profession’s more pompous examples when fighting for the Birmingham 6. His diaries recount the comment of his fellow campaigner, Sir John Stokes MP, when asked what his fellow Tory-cum-lawyers thought of what he was doing: “Sh*ts, the lot of them.”
Am I reading that correctly ?
Was John Stokes, the former Halesowen MP, really a campaigner on behalf on the Birmingham Six ?
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
I thought they were already manufacturing, despite not having approval yet?
Trumps strategy seems to be to get his supporters behind him so they can put pressure on politicians and the courts. If you look at the votes as they came in in some of the key swing states there was a period when counting stopped then when it restarted there were massive dumping of votes for biden. Now this may be legit but this is one of the bbcs signs of a rigged election ie sudden unexplained stopping of vote counting. This is not evidence per se but it is like a smoking gun to perhaps investigate more. Of course other politicians may have let it slide but Trump sure aint ordinary
So here comes more Trumpian drivel from our "new" poster who I treated "shabbily" by flagging his first as Trumpian drivel in an attempt to discourage more.
See? - "Gentleman" @JACK_W with your softhead "standards".
One thing that a lot of the comment about the courts exposing "fraud" overlooks is that in the US the courts rule on the law. If the law isn't sufficient to prevent fraud, then the courts will not strike down fraud.
A lot of the commentary in the US is about how certain procedures in place allow the theoretical potential for fraud (whether or not it is actually happening). However lax electoral procedures as allowed by state laws cannot be ruled on by the courts. So the Trumpists are insisting that they were denied the ability to "inspect" the ballots. But here's the thing. The law doesn't require that. It simply allows the ability to "observe" the count. So as long as the observers were there, the courts will be satisfied.
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
Oh no, this is worse than ever. £200 for an extra 8 GB of RAM. £200 to go from 512 GB to 1 TB SSD, do you want 2 TB? That's an extra £600. 16 GB is the limit on RAM as well.
It's probably because Apple are smartphone technologies for these computers, like Package on Package for the RAM, and their proprietary NVMe over M-PHY for the SSD. So bespoke components mean they are paying more and charging more.
These graphs look promising, if that's the right word. Unless I'm very much mistaken, the changes also seem to slightly precede the lockdown.
Can't be. Starmer said it had failed... days before they were due to be introduced.
Local lockdowns really did seem to be working.
At least, they did for us Tier 1-ers in the SW....
I am a believer in the power of social media....enough people have their WhatsApp group blow up with people saying they tested positive has normal folk changing behaviour regardless of what the government.are saying.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.
Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.
If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.
That is absolutely not true,
They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer
They do not claim that there were no observers at all.
In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.
(1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh. (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?
If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.
Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.
If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.
The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
Expert on Pennsylvania electoral law are you?
No, I am no lawyer and these are just my interpretations.
But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
It doesn't matter how many times you repeat an untrue statement it is still untrue.
I decided in the spirit of science to try this....
So I read a massive from Giuliani on election fraud. 10 times. Literally.
It's still false.
A point for the graph.....
Without wishing to offend the religious, one of the reasons organised religions have been so influential through history is that they repeat lies endlessly, repeatedly and with great conviction until more and more followers believe them. At that point, the lies are effectively true for those who operate within their domain, even if the lies never actually become true.
Trumpism is better understood as a religious movement or cult rather than a rational, scientific movement.
One thing has always afforded me amusement - being told by atheists of progressive intent, that one religion or the other is more "true" or "beautiful" than another.
To some, the statement that Mormonism is exactly as worthy of respect as religion X, is actually offensive.
It is likely that religions can be ordered by how realistic or truthful they are. Ordered by beauty - not really with any objectivity.
I certainly dont have the knowledge to do so but dont see why a better informed atheist theologian couldnt make a go of it.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
I thought they were already manufacturing, despite not having approval yet?
They are but ramp up has been slower than expected, but is now accelerating to 10m per month.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.
Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
I think it's great we got the fist call.
To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible.
Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
I thought they were already manufacturing, despite not having approval yet?
They are but ramp up has been slower than expected, but is now accelerating to 10m per month.
Thanks. I haven't been following too closely. Hopefully we hear from the oxford folks in the next few weeks.
I think it has been there since the election at least, that’s why I backed Kamala at 350 (then laid her off at 440 when everyone said it was impossible for her to win!) But re reading it, I think there is a chance, albeit a v small one that some kind of shenanigans could end up w her as President. I keep thinking of Biden saying ‘I’m her running mate, and I’m not kidding’ or words to that effect. Maybe he was talking about putting her in for 2024 though
this is a political betting site. You may hate Trump i may hate Trump but dont let bias blind us to reality that perhaps Bidens odds are too short for the presidency
Biden's odd are ridiculously long considering the election is over and he has won.
If Trump seizes power either through the Supreme Court that he loaded in the event of losing the election or by means of forceful coup d'etat he still lost the election.
These graphs look promising, if that's the right word. Unless I'm very much mistaken, the changes also seem to slightly precede the lockdown.
Can't be. Starmer said it had failed... days before they were due to be introduced.
Local lockdowns really did seem to be working.
At least, they did for us Tier 1-ers in the SW....
I am a believer in the power of social media....enough people have their WhatsApp group blow up with people saying they tested positive has normal folk changing behaviour regardless of what the government.are saying.
Yes, I think that is right.
The beauty of the tiers is it seemed to allow for decent, natural risk segmentation. News about the virus in Liverpool made my aged parents worried, and me think 'oh, well we're several hundred miles from there'.
The national lockdown floored me. I was staggered. I'd just visited Cambridge for work, in Tier 1, and came through London, tier 2, with an overnight stop, back to Dorset, Tier 1. London was quieter, but I was still able to have a pie and a pint in the City (and a desperately cheap boutique hotel, too).
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
Applying pressure to get his way is certainly Trump's MO, he's certainly good at it, and in some fields it's certainly effective.
But whilst he can chisel dollars of the cost of an ugly hotel building, chiselling votes off Biden's totals in the right states isn't the same thing at all. Is it?
I totally agree. 100%. He won’t do it that way. Maybe whilst we think he is chiselling votes in the rolling maule he has escaped with the thing down the blind side. Maybe there is a play none of us has thought of, based on the fact it’s not just one person who needs to concede defeat. He is not alone. Can’t completely rule out a November surprise. 😕
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Perhaps - 532 deaths today and perhaps 70,000 as a result of the Coronavirus suggests any "celebrations" should be restrained.
In our desire to be back at our desks with our colleagues, we seem to have forgotten the bereaved and those suffering long-term health damage from this virus.
It would be nice to think they will be remembered - it would also be nice to think proper accountability will be a key aspect of the independent public enquiry into all this.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
And we need to get 80%+ to take it.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
"It just works" sums it up quite nicely for macOS.
Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.
If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
Re Pennsylvania, is that true?
The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage...
So far, Trumps "evidence" has failed in every court. With his appeal in Michigan he did not even file the relevant documents to prove his argument. IIRC, he has about 2½ weeks to get his act together before the case will be thrown out as a waste of time.
One further point - and it may only be a Michigan thing - whichever lawyer filed the complaint has to sign it off as part of the submission process. If the complaint is frivolous or wrong or incomplete, that lawyer can expect a censure or reprimand and perhaps even a suspension of their licence to practice.
If other states have similar laws, it may explain the reluctance of "heavy-hitter" lawyers to get involved.
Yes, I have heard similar about the US, in connection with Texas and New York - judges seriously hammering lawyers for frivolous suits, time wasting etc.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
For clarity, I'm talking entirely about category (ii). The ones who are trying to build a narrative that maybe this is still on!!!!1! But it ain't on. It's flatlining. It's head isn't even attached. And I'm heartened to see so many people of diverse political opinions just kicking the absolute shit out of their nonsense. I mean, it's shooting fish in a barrel, but it's fabulous to see.
Yes, I know you were. The pushing of the narrative as opposed to the fearful musing about what might happen. It's easy to tell the difference. It is for me anyway. Some seem to find it slightly trickier.
Still 1.09 btw. What a bet! I'm tossing the car keys in.
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
"It just works" sums it up quite nicely for macOS.
Except if you rely on CUDA for accelerated machine learning...then it just doesn't work.
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
Also, my business has 4 IMACs, 3 Macbooks and several iphones. One day during the height of the summer one of the IMACs played up, fan went into overdrive. Calmed down by the next week.
They range from 6 months to 6 years old. Other than the one overdriven fan, they've never not worked. I think in total my laptop has crashed 3 times in 6 years.
My memory is that PCs fell over all the time. Is that still the same?
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
"It just works" sums it up quite nicely for macOS.
Except if you rely on CUDA for accelerated machine learning...then it just doesn't work.
Kinabalu it is attitudes like yours the cancel culture attitude which led to the rise of Trump. I hope the irony is not lost on you by the way how old are you
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
And we need to get 80%+ to take it.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
I think it's great we got the fist call.
To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible.
Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
Kinabalu it is attitudes like yours the cancel culture attitude which led to the rise of Trump. I hope the irony is not lost on you by the way how old are you
"Look at what you made me do" Yup, you're a Trumplette.
These graphs look promising, if that's the right word. Unless I'm very much mistaken, the changes also seem to slightly precede the lockdown.
Can't be. Starmer said it had failed... days before they were due to be introduced.
Local lockdowns really did seem to be working.
At least, they did for us Tier 1-ers in the SW....
I am a believer in the power of social media....enough people have their WhatsApp group blow up with people saying they tested positive has normal folk changing behaviour regardless of what the government.are saying.
They change their behaviour and herd immunity happens in their own little grouping - there's plenty of people who have had either asymptomatically or without a test in the spring.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Perhaps - 532 deaths today and perhaps 70,000 as a result of the Coronavirus suggests any "celebrations" should be restrained.
In our desire to be back at our desks with our colleagues, we seem to have forgotten the bereaved and those suffering long-term health damage from this virus.
It would be nice to think they will be remembered - it would also be nice to think proper accountability will be a key aspect of the independent public enquiry into all this.
The champagne moment is even sweeter because we know that a vaccine is the only way to prevent this situation from continuing indefinitely.
I'm sorry if it seems insensitive. I think we're entitled to feel happy about having light at the end of the tunnel without any survivor's guilt. If you're feeling that way then I'd honestly suggest you should speak to someone more qualified about it.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
For clarity, I'm talking entirely about category (ii). The ones who are trying to build a narrative that maybe this is still on!!!!1! But it ain't on. It's flatlining. It's head isn't even attached. And I'm heartened to see so many people of diverse political opinions just kicking the absolute shit out of their nonsense. I mean, it's shooting fish in a barrel, but it's fabulous to see.
Yes, I know you were. The pushing of the narrative as opposed to the fearful musing about what might happen. It's easy to tell the difference. It is for me anyway. Some seem to find it slightly trickier.
Still 1.09 btw. What a bet! I'm tossing the car keys in.
Have you got anything left bar your wardrobe after betting it all on a Biden landslide ?
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
Also, my business has 4 IMACs, 3 Macbooks and several iphones. One day during the height of the summer one of the IMACs played up, fan went into overdrive. Calmed down by the next week.
They range from 6 months to 6 years old. Other than the one overdriven fan, they've never not worked. I think in total my laptop has crashed 3 times in 6 years.
My memory is that PCs fell over all the time. Is that still the same?
Dunno, but I gave up PCs eons ago because of their tendency to crash, contract viruses and slow-load. It seemed to me to be a full time job just keeping them operational.
I’m sure they are better now, but once you Mac you don’t go back. And, like you, I have been exclusively a Mac user both at work and leisure for years now.
Did RBG consider stepping down in 2008-14 when she was 75+ and the Dems had the Presidency and a Senate majority ?
When you miss an opportunity like that don't complain afterwards.
Don't complain about what?
Getting replaced under less favourable circumstances.
The way American politicians and judges go on and on and on and on almost justifies the House of Lords.
At least we can put the venerable oldies in a place where they can burble on without the whole country hanging on their state of health.
Ah ok. I thought you might be implying that the Dems can't complain about a Rep stacked SC stealing the election because RBG should have had the good sense and foresight to stand down when Obama was still in charge. Because that would have been a bit of a silly comment. But if you weren't, you weren't. No point me arguing about what isn't said when there's so much that is said to argue with.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
I thought they were already manufacturing, despite not having approval yet?
They are but ramp up has been slower than expected, but is now accelerating to 10m per month.
Is that the yield issue I've heard mentioned - the vaccine is hard to make?
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
"It just works" sums it up quite nicely for macOS.
Macos a pile of utter shit.
It is like a crippled unintuitive Linux install from a decade ago.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.
Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
To be fair to @kinabalu he did say that but, I hope for his sake, he didn't
Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
You are oversimplifying this. There is a lot of credible reporting that Biden doesn't like Johnson one bit, and Harris loathes him, and you can see from (inter alia) the attack on Obama why that would be the case. You might think that Biden has overlooked that as a bit of low-key racist bantz - I hope not, but it's just about credible given his demographic. It isn't credible of Harris. And Biden's shot across Johnson's bows over the GFA was a hostile act. So: either you can think Biden has been won over in a matter of weeks by Johnson's wonderful Borisness, or you can think that the call was a message to Trump - look, your lapdog is now my lapdog - and an assertion of power over Boris - you may not want to take this call, but you're going to.
Do you think the reaction in Downing Street to being first on the list was 100% unalloyed joy?
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
And we need to get 80%+ to take it.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
I like that position, ignore Trump and carry on, the more Trump thinks he's being ignored the more irrational he will become until the men in suits come for him.
I've had a long recurring image of him leaving the White House under duress in a horizontal position. Perhaps it will come to pass.
Kinabalu it is attitudes like yours the cancel culture attitude which led to the rise of Trump. I hope the irony is not lost on you by the way how old are you
A baw hair away from invokey wokey cultural Marxism I sense.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.
Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
It is taking every fibre of my being not to break my staking limits at the moment.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
I’m definitely (i). In my defence, it’s perfectly rational to expect the irrational. There are no rules, limits or red lines when Trump is involved, everything goes if it works.
Where you are wrong is claiming it takes America rogue, or into civil war. Really? A bit of arcane goal post moving, legal disputes that will pingpong on for years, but for now allow Republican legislators to apportion state delegates a different way for example. Well, it’s unfair to ask me to name exactly what - 95% of me is catching up on sleep lost last week. But 5% of mind is expecting the unexpected since i realised Trump is not alone, not remotely alone. 😯
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
I thought they were already manufacturing, despite not having approval yet?
They are but ramp up has been slower than expected, but is now accelerating to 10m per month.
Is that the yield issue I've heard mentioned - the vaccine is hard to make?
Setting up from scratch is difficult to do because a 1000 different things need to go correctly and then done again for a number of production lines. It's almost like running a silicon chip foundry, there's a whole bunch of small things that can add up to poor yields.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.
Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
To be fair to @kinabalu he did say that but, I hope for his sake, he didn't
He also said he had put on "most" of his 2020 election winnings on it, which is quite different staking.
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
Also, my business has 4 IMACs, 3 Macbooks and several iphones. One day during the height of the summer one of the IMACs played up, fan went into overdrive. Calmed down by the next week.
They range from 6 months to 6 years old. Other than the one overdriven fan, they've never not worked. I think in total my laptop has crashed 3 times in 6 years.
My memory is that PCs fell over all the time. Is that still the same?
3 times in 6 years? That is 3 more than my chromebook.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
And we need to get 80%+ to take it.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
Eradication is a decades long process.
And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
Chris Mullin MP regularly baited on TV some of the profession’s more pompous examples when fighting for the Birmingham 6. His diaries recount the comment of his fellow campaigner, Sir John Stokes MP, when asked what his fellow Tory-cum-lawyers thought of what he was doing: “Sh*ts, the lot of them.”
Am I reading that correctly ?
Was John Stokes, the former Halesowen MP, really a campaigner on behalf on the Birmingham Six ?
I did think that, so I read his obituaries - couldn't see it mentioned anywhere
Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
You mean as always....
One thing that baffles me about PCs (I've used Macs for about 10 years now) is how unintuitive the new Windows set ups seem to be. I grew up with Windows, and now have not a clue how to use my parents' PC.
Agreed. The reason most people buy Macs is not for price per gig of storage. It’s because the operating system is vastly more elegant and intuitive, and better designed.
Also, my business has 4 IMACs, 3 Macbooks and several iphones. One day during the height of the summer one of the IMACs played up, fan went into overdrive. Calmed down by the next week.
They range from 6 months to 6 years old. Other than the one overdriven fan, they've never not worked. I think in total my laptop has crashed 3 times in 6 years.
My memory is that PCs fell over all the time. Is that still the same?
3 times in 6 years? That is 3 more than my chromebook.
Wow. When I was using PCs they used to crash about every third day.
Especially when I was running Excel models/Word docs more complex than a letter....
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
And we need to get 80%+ to take it.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
Eradication is a decades long process.
And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.
Not vaccinating under 50s is to do with the number of doses we have available from Pfizer, if the AZ vaccine also comes good then we have more than enough for everyone. If the government says no to vaccinating the under 50s they can basically kiss re-election goodbye.
Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group? Sock puppets?
There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.
(i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.
(ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.
My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
There's a third type, which is simply saying how the betting odds look compared to the probable outcomes. I think you are massively confusing what posters think might happen with what they want to happen.
Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
To be fair to @kinabalu he did say that but, I hope for his sake, he didn't
Yeah that's what I am saying - he is putting his money where his mouth is. I am sure he'll be fine, but after my bedwetting of a week ago I am not following him.
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
And we need to get 80%+ to take it.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
Eradication is a decades long process.
And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.
Given we've failed to eradicate measles, I think thats a little optimistic.
Or he just says he’s handing it over to her before he’s sworn in.
What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
You've missed out the key bit just above it. Pence becoming President wouldn't pay out in this market.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This is not the next President market, but the winner of the 2020 Presidential election market.
Or he just says he’s handing it over to her before he’s sworn in.
What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
You've missed out the key bit just above it.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This is not the next President market, but the winner of the 2020 Presidential election market.
Obviously I read that first, but why would there be any need for the bit I posted if the part you quote is the be all and end all? Why would they bother saying anything about ambiguity etc?
Have to say on the vaccine strategy the UK has absolutely nailed it. A very wide portfolio of likely successes means that we could have the whole nation vaccinated by the middle of next year ahead of basically every other nation in the world.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Tend to agree. The only real fly in the ointment is that AZN/Oxford appears to be slightly slower than we'd like at ramping up manufacturing capability.
And we need to get 80%+ to take it.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
I mean, yes, in an ideal world. But if we only got to 50% the R would still be surpressed massively.
For eradication we'd want 80% taking it at 90% efficacy.
Eradication is a decades long process.
And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
Eradication in the UK is a six month process, globally it is a huge prospect though.
Given we've failed to eradicate measles, I think thats a little optimistic.
I think the pressure to eradicate this will be much greater and as soon as the vaccine proves to be safe there will be queues of people getting vaccinated because it unlocks normal life. Not getting a measles vaccination doesn't lead to having a half life.
I see we are back on to Trump overturning the election, coup d’etat etc, etc etc.
Just to be clear: the chances of this happening are zero.
You are having a pop at me there. I was merely responding to a poster who suggested that Biden's odds were currently too short. I pointed out that Biden has already won the election. I was only suggesting if by some unlikely hocus pocus Trump is still President on 21st January, it won't be because he won the election.
Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
I think it's great we got the fist call.
To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible.
Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
I believe the call between Boris and Joe Biden was mutually beneficial and in Joe Biden's case Boris rejection of Trump must please him more than from must any other leader due to Boris previously attitude to Trump
Did you see the nice greeting Johnson sent to Trump, err, I mean Biden?
Poor comms at no 10 but it does not alter the importance of Boris endorsing Joe Biden in a personal phone call which will aid Biden and add to Trump's dark anger
Comments
1) this is different from Florida 2000 where 500 disputed votes tipped a large state with (then) 25 electoral college delegates;
2) GOP media claims of fraud are far wider than the narrow points made in court, and even here they are often dismissed for lack of evidence.
But it was interesting to see the run-through, case by case, state by state.
To some, the statement that Mormonism is exactly as worthy of respect as religion X, is actually offensive.
One further point - and it may only be a Michigan thing - whichever lawyer filed the complaint has to sign it off as part of the submission process. If the complaint is frivolous or wrong or incomplete, that lawyer can expect a censure or reprimand and perhaps even a suspension of their licence to practice.
If other states have similar laws, it may explain the reluctance of "heavy-hitter" lawyers to get involved.
Now, you can say that doesn't matter, or that Biden is trying to be non-confrontational, but he hasn't challenged strongly the belief in grip the Republican base that the election has been stolen. It makes no sense. At the very least, it is likely to motivate GOP voters in the mid-terms and give McConnell the perfect excuse not to co-operate and stall Biden's proposals if he so wants.
Typed from my exceedingly hot 2019 macbook.
At least, they did for us Tier 1-ers in the SW....
At the best, it may be that the upwards trends have slowed. Maybe even to a stop. But we need them to drop, hard and fast.
There's been a lot of fair criticism of them over basically everything, but this is one area where we have had a truly world beating strategy. We've got 10m doses arriving before the end of this month and then a further 30m on order for Q1 2021. If AZ reports back with similar efficacy then there's 4m of those before EOY and then a further 46m within the first half.
I'll be interested to see the next round of economic forecasts because they will need to have a vaccine prediction as well as the normal one. I think we'll get back to pre virus levels by around October of 2021 assuming the vaccine passes MHRA certification.
A real champagne moment for the UK vaccine team.
Maybe, but I don't see it at all. The price in my view should be 1.01/1.02. However I'm licking my wounds in all this (all red 2.5k) after betting that Tulsi Gabbard would win, and the opposing Biden.
Not sure if you're new to be or just and infrequent poster - but hi anyway.
Chris Mullin MP regularly baited on TV some of the profession’s more pompous examples when fighting for the Birmingham 6. His diaries recount the comment of his fellow campaigner, Sir John Stokes MP, when asked what his fellow Tory-cum-lawyers thought of what he was doing: “Sh*ts, the lot of them.”
Am I reading that correctly ?
Was John Stokes, the former Halesowen MP, really a campaigner on behalf on the Birmingham Six ?
For storage - well, I have 20TB of RAID'd NAS on my network. Why spend a zillion to try and buy giant SSDs? 1TB is fine for the laptop.
Unless you happen to be making 8K films.
See? - "Gentleman" @JACK_W with your softhead "standards".
Like I said. Wise up FFS.
A lot of the commentary in the US is about how certain procedures in place allow the theoretical potential for fraud (whether or not it is actually happening). However lax electoral procedures as allowed by state laws cannot be ruled on by the courts. So the Trumpists are insisting that they were denied the ability to "inspect" the ballots. But here's the thing. The law doesn't require that. It simply allows the ability to "observe" the count. So as long as the observers were there, the courts will be satisfied.
It's probably because Apple are smartphone technologies for these computers, like Package on Package for the RAM, and their proprietary NVMe over M-PHY for the SSD. So bespoke components mean they are paying more and charging more.
I certainly dont have the knowledge to do so but dont see why a better informed atheist theologian couldnt make a go of it.
Respect for piling in on Biden, though. I am mystified by the posts which say hur hur hur Trump not got a prayer, which don't go on to say "and I have therefore remortgaged the house/emptied the client account..."
If Trump seizes power either through the Supreme Court that he loaded in the event of losing the election or by means of forceful coup d'etat he still lost the election.
The beauty of the tiers is it seemed to allow for decent, natural risk segmentation. News about the virus in Liverpool made my aged parents worried, and me think 'oh, well we're several hundred miles from there'.
The national lockdown floored me. I was staggered. I'd just visited Cambridge for work, in Tier 1, and came through London, tier 2, with an overnight stop, back to Dorset, Tier 1. London was quieter, but I was still able to have a pie and a pint in the City (and a desperately cheap boutique hotel, too).
In our desire to be back at our desks with our colleagues, we seem to have forgotten the bereaved and those suffering long-term health damage from this virus.
It would be nice to think they will be remembered - it would also be nice to think proper accountability will be a key aspect of the independent public enquiry into all this.
I will (in seconds) but I've already come across some weird antivax sentiment in my everyday life twice.
I think 20-30% are sceptical at the moment - which is too high.
Still 1.09 btw. What a bet! I'm tossing the car keys in.
They range from 6 months to 6 years old. Other than the one overdriven fan, they've never not worked. I think in total my laptop has crashed 3 times in 6 years.
My memory is that PCs fell over all the time. Is that still the same?
Yup, you're a Trumplette.
I'm sorry if it seems insensitive. I think we're entitled to feel happy about having light at the end of the tunnel without any survivor's guilt. If you're feeling that way then I'd honestly suggest you should speak to someone more qualified about it.
I’m sure they are better now, but once you Mac you don’t go back. And, like you, I have been exclusively a Mac user both at work and leisure for years now.
Just to be clear: the chances of this happening are zero.
It is like a crippled unintuitive Linux install from a decade ago.
Do you think the reaction in Downing Street to being first on the list was 100% unalloyed joy?
https://twitter.com/TheMasters/status/1326240421962543106
What happens if Trump quit tomorrow? Would Pence be President?
https://youtu.be/GfqOytpE3VY
Where you are wrong is claiming it takes America rogue, or into civil war. Really? A bit of arcane goal post moving, legal disputes that will pingpong on for years, but for now allow Republican legislators to apportion state delegates a different way for example. Well, it’s unfair to ask me to name exactly what - 95% of me is catching up on sleep lost last week. But 5% of mind is expecting the unexpected since i realised Trump is not alone, not remotely alone. 😯
And I thought there was some hoo-har a few weeks ago about no plans to vaccinate under 50s, anyway?
I think he was just putting himself in an equal position with the women, hence introducing himself as Jill Bidens husband, to make a point
Especially when I was running Excel models/Word docs more complex than a letter....
Not vaccinating under 50s is to do with the number of doses we have available from Pfizer, if the AZ vaccine also comes good then we have more than enough for everyone. If the government says no to vaccinating the under 50s they can basically kiss re-election goodbye.
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
This is not the next President market, but the winner of the 2020 Presidential election market.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13035369/joe-biden-kamala-harris-wife/
'My name is Joe Biden/I'm Joe Biden's Husband' depending on whether Joe or his wife were giving the speech?