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The final battle of WH2020 – the Georgia run-off for two senate seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,034
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    Patience of a saint. :smile:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    edited November 2020
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    Patience of a saint. :smile:
    Or editing abilities of a God!

    (I'd vote for you view though)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited November 2020

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.

    The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
    Just because they claim they were denied their rights doesn't mean they were denied their rights. Given how many of the cases they have made have already been dimissed as groundless it is more reasonable to wait for proof to emerge that they are right than take their word on faith that they are right.

    An election of this size and complexity if they cannot find an example somewhere of something not being done right I will be stunned. But they doesn't make the claims they are making about wholesale corruption and electoral fraud to be justified without proof, and 'they claim it' is not proof, not when so many cases have already failed, nor is it partisan or unreasonable to expect them to back up their claims more than they are now. Especially when what they are claiming requires the complicity of so many people, including many Republicans.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,561
    Brother in law just phoned. Covid positive. He seems to have had it fairly lightly and is recovering, but his wife hasn't had her test result yet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC News - Greg Clarke resigns as Football Association chairman after remark about black players
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54894864

    It just wasn't comment about black players, he's guilty of the worst stereotyping.
    The BBC news tv report that was just on was highly misleading. They only covered the fact he used the term coloured and made an absolute massive deal out of how racist this is, when actually it was a whole range of things...gay is a life style choice...christ alive.
    Little girls don't want balls kicked hard at them.
    To be fair in regards to that, I believe he said that is what coaches told him? I don't know the context. Was he saying this is what coaches say, thus girls are crap at football or was he saying coaches say this and thus we need to change coaching? I honestly don't know.
    As the head of a large organisation he ought not to leave any doubt.
    Well he is clearly as thick as mince. Even a sexist racist homophobe in front of parliamentary select committee would know some stock responses e.g. why no openly gay players...has in the past been a hostile environment, concerns about how fans react, other sports like rugby been better, we strive to do more to make it such that should a player wish to come out they know there will be full backing and support....instead, well its a lifestyle choice innit.
    People acquainted with the FA only through its public perception may be deceived into thinking it is a somewhat incompetent, antiquated, corrupt and self-serving organsiation. Those of us who know it more from direct experience can assure them that the reality is indeed far worse than that.
    The FA was the organisation, that when Thaksin attempted to buy a football club, stated that he met the "Fit and Proper" criteria to be a FA football club owner.

    A chap who still needs a few days at the ICC - for crimes against humanity.

    I think that says everything possible about the FA.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.

    The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
    Could you link to the lawsuit please?
    No I really can't. But I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT (so that the rest of you don;t have to, you're welcome). These are just my interpretations and I am not a lawyer.
    The Trump modus operandi for the last four years has been to announce that something is going to happen (a replacement for Obamacare will be released, etc.) and it is then forgotten.

    There is no lawsuit that alleges what you (and Guiliani) are alleging. You can't link to it, because it doesn't exist.

    There was one that alleged the distance in the room was slightly more than the minimum. But the - Trump appointed Judge - dismissed it.
  • Biden is much better as president elect than he was as a candidate. Calmer and clearer, more presidential.
  • I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT

    Apropos of nothing, if you stare into perfect darkness for a long period of time, your eyes will start to see things that aren't there.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    Yes, yes, I his is the wish fulfilment fantasy I come to PB.com for.

    Inject this into my veins.
    I apologies. I appear to have frothed it all up again on here.

    I’ll shut up now. 😟
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, the options aren't:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins

    They are:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Civil war

    I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
    Why would the Supreme Court hand those over?

    Indeed, given that they have ruled (usually 9-0) against Trump on pretty much every case that's reached them in the last four years, why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result (and a not particularly close one at that) and risk civil war?
    Some of the cases are not being brought by Trump, as I understand it, but by the attorney generals of other states.

    That level of naivety is quite cute really. Unless it is not naivety.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,077

    Brother in law just phoned. Covid positive. He seems to have had it fairly lightly and is recovering, but his wife hasn't had her test result yet.

    Any idea from where? Always interested to know, and how careful or not they’d been?
  • gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, the options aren't:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins

    They are:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Civil war

    I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
    How would they ever win power?
    They couldn't. You would have in effect a one-party State, in perpetuity.
  • Trump lawsuits. This video uploaded earlier today runs through the various Trump lawsuits, what they claimed, why they were (mostly) dismissed, and why Pennsylvania cases might be different.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha7iWECm_8E

  • gealbhan said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
    Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
    He is a loser.

    L O S E R.

    LOSER! SAD!

    Being serious, he's worse than a loser, he's a loser who is still crying that he should be the winner when the rest of the world has literally moved on without him. Every global ally has congratulated Biden on winning. Even Fox has. It is over.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,565
    edited November 2020

    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.

    The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
    Could you link to the lawsuit please?
    No I really can't. But I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT (so that the rest of you don;t have to, you're welcome). These are just my interpretations and I am not a lawyer.
    LOL. The GOP admitted IN COURT that they had a 'non-zero' number of observers in the count at all times.
    'In the count' may not be the point. The point may be whether the ballots were observable.
    Oh for goodness sake this is ridiculous. If this was a valid argument why didn't the lawyer say so when the judge asked if they were present.

    Re your comment on the N Carolina result coming in, are you going to get really excited when Trump gets Alaska?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748

    Biden is much better as president elect than he was as a candidate. Calmer and clearer, more presidential.

    He is isn't he - he also seems far livelier. Of course the campaign trail is notoriously hard, and victory undoubtedly sweet. I'm really pleased that he seems to be reinvigorated by all this though. I thought he was totally past-it but I cannot be more delighted than to be proved wrong.

    He looks like a potentially very good President, and I have to admit that some of my prior concerns seem wildly misplaced.
  • kinabalu i think you are letting your bias interfere. I agree joe biden should likely still be president but there is a non trivial chance of trump overturning the result. And be aware large number of americans believe the vote was rigged. So at these odds Biden is poor value
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020

    I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT

    To the extent that there is any rationality in what Guiliani is saying, he is arguing that in any normal previous election, the leads that Trump built up on election night, given the volume of votes counted, would have been sufficient for the media to call many of the states for him. And therefore there must have been fraud. He's right. In any past election where the volume of mail in ballots (and any other outstanding ballots) would have

    a) been much smaller

    b) more distributed in line with the on the day votes cast as opposed to being heavily skewed by one side telling their supporters not to use them and their use being very closely linked to opinions about the dangers of a global pandemic, then yes Trump would have been home and hosed.

    But of course if all the Democrats who took advantage of mail in ballots had voted on the day then he wouldn't have been so far ahead (if at all) in the first place.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,813
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    HYUFD said:
    I like how he talks about our two new aircraft carriers, without bringing up the fact that he didn't want to build them
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,848
    edited November 2020
    Glad to see the Boris as the back of the queue stuff was just the usual puerile nonsense. No fan of Boris but let’s move on from partisan crap please!

    Biden is much better as president elect than he was as a candidate. Calmer and clearer, more presidential.

    Yes, he looks very good.

    Will be an excellent president I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited November 2020
    Oh shit...fuck.

    The comic timing is pretty good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905

    Trump lawsuits. This video uploaded earlier today runs through the various Trump lawsuits, what they claimed, why they were (mostly) dismissed, and why Pennsylvania cases might be different.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha7iWECm_8E

    That's 30 minutes long!

    I expect the Trump administration to prevail and prevent the counting of late arriving ballots in PA. The legislature said they needed to be recieved by election day. The State Supreme Court said they could arrive up to three days late because of postal delays. (Postal delays, I would add, that the Trump administration aided and abetted.) But I think the SC will say that the legislature has spoken, and that the State Supreme Court cannot overturn it.

    That will not change the PA vote, because those ballots have been set aside and have not been counted pending a decision.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,848
    On topic,

    The Georgia runs are very hard to price up. Lots of moving parts there.

    I’d want longer than evens on the Dem sweep.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,825
    Oh dear.

    Another set of Brexiteers unhappy about Brexit...

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1326254281301905409
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    And this row among senior Republicans in Georgia is not exactly going to help matters. The two Republican Senate candidates (echoing Trump's nonsense) have called on the Republican Governor to stand down re. the counting of votes.

    Do they not realise how they are playing into Democrat hands?!

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/georgia-s-republican-secretary-state-rejects-call-resignation-two-gop-n1247187
  • Who ate all the pies ?

    The nurses featured here don't seem to have gone short:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54877668

    The lack of a major anti-obesity / general healthy eating and lifestyle campaign is madness.
  • alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.

    The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
    Expert on Pennsylvania electoral law are you?
    No, I am no lawyer and these are just my interpretations.

    But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
    It also never happened. They were 12 feet away in the spot that had been predetermined to be their location before counting began and to which they didn't object before counting began.

    They then cried foul during the count and demanded to be six feet away. Despite never complaining before the count.

    As far as I understand it. It's nonsense.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,848

    Brother in law just phoned. Covid positive. He seems to have had it fairly lightly and is recovering, but his wife hasn't had her test result yet.

    Best wishes to them for a speedy recovery.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,825
    kle4 said:

    Oh shit...fuck.

    The comic timing is pretty good.

    https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1326206746310946817
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,209

    'Kin hell I bought a new MacBook Air earlier on this year.

    'Kin hell I bought a new MacBook Air earlier on this year.

    I’m sure they’ll give you a decent trade in offer.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,561

    Brother in law just phoned. Covid positive. He seems to have had it fairly lightly and is recovering, but his wife hasn't had her test result yet.

    Any idea from where? Always interested to know, and how careful or not they’d been?
    Possibly on a shopping trip to Tesco.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    If they did, Trumplettes would all be wearing SARAH PALIN WAS RIGHT tshirts the very next day.
    4D chess. Owning the libs. Something something beta.
    Sorry, I remember reading about approval for this deal around two weeks back. Something changed?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905

    And this row among senior Republicans in Georgia is not exactly going to help matters. The two Republican Senate candidates (echoing Trump's nonsense) have called on the Republican Governor to stand down re. the counting of votes.

    Do they not realise how they are playing into Democrat hands?!

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/georgia-s-republican-secretary-state-rejects-call-resignation-two-gop-n1247187

    Technically it's the (elected) Secretary of State they're demanding resign.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Trump lawsuits. This video uploaded earlier today runs through the various Trump lawsuits, what they claimed, why they were (mostly) dismissed, and why Pennsylvania cases might be different.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha7iWECm_8E

    That's 30 minutes long!

    I expect the Trump administration to prevail and prevent the counting of late arriving ballots in PA. The legislature said they needed to be recieved by election day. The State Supreme Court said they could arrive up to three days late because of postal delays. (Postal delays, I would add, that the Trump administration aided and abetted.) But I think the SC will say that the legislature has spoken, and that the State Supreme Court cannot overturn it.

    That will not change the PA vote, because those ballots have been set aside and have not been counted pending a decision.
    Spoiler, the most recent case is not different. Its the one trying to stop Penn certifying its results.

    It's based on the notion that mail in voting is unconstitutional.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,077

    Brother in law just phoned. Covid positive. He seems to have had it fairly lightly and is recovering, but his wife hasn't had her test result yet.

    Any idea from where? Always interested to know, and how careful or not they’d been?
    Possibly on a shopping trip to Tesco.
    Ouch. Clearly should’ve gone to Waitrose...
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, the options aren't:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins

    They are:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Civil war

    I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
    How would they ever win power?
    They couldn't. You would have in effect a one-party State, in perpetuity.
    That’s a bit over the top. It’s just Trump era isn’t it. Like there was no Franco without Franco.
    Trump fiddling 3 states and staying on another 4 years wouldn’t be very big in the big scheme of things. Probably just result in even bigger Dem win in four years.

    I am 95% sure Biden wins the WH. All I said was, we can’t argue over what we know, there’s nothing there for Trump. We’ve got to expect the unexpected to at least 5%
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,565

    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.

    The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
    Expert on Pennsylvania electoral law are you?
    No, I am no lawyer and these are just my interpretations.

    But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
    It doesn't matter how many times you repeat an untrue statement it is still untrue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    Omnium said:

    Biden is much better as president elect than he was as a candidate. Calmer and clearer, more presidential.

    He is isn't he - he also seems far livelier. Of course the campaign trail is notoriously hard, and victory undoubtedly sweet. I'm really pleased that he seems to be reinvigorated by all this though. I thought he was totally past-it but I cannot be more delighted than to be proved wrong.

    He looks like a potentially very good President, and I have to admit that some of my prior concerns seem wildly misplaced.
    He must be on a bit of high. This is a the top job on the planet (as far as he is concerned, certainly). One that he has reached for several times, and lost. And he finally has it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trump lawsuits. This video uploaded earlier today runs through the various Trump lawsuits, what they claimed, why they were (mostly) dismissed, and why Pennsylvania cases might be different.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha7iWECm_8E

    That's 30 minutes long!

    I expect the Trump administration to prevail and prevent the counting of late arriving ballots in PA. The legislature said they needed to be recieved by election day. The State Supreme Court said they could arrive up to three days late because of postal delays. (Postal delays, I would add, that the Trump administration aided and abetted.) But I think the SC will say that the legislature has spoken, and that the State Supreme Court cannot overturn it.

    That will not change the PA vote, because those ballots have been set aside and have not been counted pending a decision.
    Spoiler, the most recent case is not different. Its the one trying to stop Penn certifying its results.

    It's based on the notion that mail in voting is unconstitutional.
    Don't tell the people of Utah!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    For those insane people who think that Biden has a chance in Alaska first batch of mail ballots gets release at 5pm, second batch at EOD and a schedule for the rest of the week some time i between.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Who ate all the pies ?

    The nurses featured here don't seem to have gone short:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54877668

    The lack of a major anti-obesity / general healthy eating and lifestyle campaign is madness.

    Lovely post. Wanna show us a picture of you in your shreddies so we can calibrate it?
  • Re the US supreme court.

    Did RBG consider stepping down in 2008-14 when she was 75+ and the Dems had the Presidency and a Senate majority ?

    When you miss an opportunity like that don't complain afterwards.
  • Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Re the US supreme court.

    Did RBG consider stepping down in 2008-14 when she was 75+ and the Dems had the Presidency and a Senate majority ?

    When you miss an opportunity like that don't complain afterwards.

    RBG was a legal titan and a stubborn old fool.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,825
    kjh said:

    It doesn't matter how many times you repeat an untrue statement it is still untrue.

    BoZo and Trump have shown that doesn't matter
  • MrEd said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    If they did, Trumplettes would all be wearing SARAH PALIN WAS RIGHT tshirts the very next day.
    4D chess. Owning the libs. Something something beta.
    Sorry, I remember reading about approval for this deal around two weeks back. Something changed?
    What, Alaska being ceded?
    You did not read about that being approved two weeks ago.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trump lawsuits. This video uploaded earlier today runs through the various Trump lawsuits, what they claimed, why they were (mostly) dismissed, and why Pennsylvania cases might be different.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha7iWECm_8E

    That's 30 minutes long!

    I expect the Trump administration to prevail and prevent the counting of late arriving ballots in PA. The legislature said they needed to be recieved by election day. The State Supreme Court said they could arrive up to three days late because of postal delays. (Postal delays, I would add, that the Trump administration aided and abetted.) But I think the SC will say that the legislature has spoken, and that the State Supreme Court cannot overturn it.

    That will not change the PA vote, because those ballots have been set aside and have not been counted pending a decision.
    Spoiler, the most recent case is not different. Its the one trying to stop Penn certifying its results.

    It's based on the notion that mail in voting is unconstitutional.
    Don't tell the people of Utah!
    Apparently all mail in is okay. But when you have two types of voting that introduces two classes of vote... Equal Protection... blah blah blah.... Unconstitutional.

    It's all nonsense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,034

    Re the US supreme court.

    Did RBG consider stepping down in 2008-14 when she was 75+ and the Dems had the Presidency and a Senate majority ?

    When you miss an opportunity like that don't complain afterwards.

    Don't complain about what?
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Mal557 said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pulpstar said:

    532 covid deaths in the UK reported today. Backdating blah blah, weekend effect etc etc. That's an appalling number.

    what? surely some mistake?
    I agree its a horrendous headline number, I know there will be caveats and the Murder Tuesday quotes, but its still awful. Thank god the news on the vaccine front seems very positive. That was always the way out of this and the fact it may begin roll out as soon as the end of the year or early next is great news. But until then sadly these numbers like today are still going to be around.
    Fuck. And we're probably still weeks from peak deaths. November is going be just fucking awful.
    Unlikely. We haven't seen the cases rise in a while. This should be the peak.
    We can hope so, though the ZOE data for my bit of NE London has started increasing sharply again after a week or so of gentle decline. Now that's one borough, but the timings are pretty consistent with a strong school effect.
    As for the national total, that could be a decrease from high rates in the places which were in T3, combined with an increase from a lower base in the rest of the country.
    The effect of Lockdown 2 (Electric Avenue) should kick in in the stats towards the end of this week, shouldn't they?
    How do you access the Zoe data at that level? I’ve only seen regional data?
    Do you use the app? I think seeing the stats for your area is the incentive for entering your data. So I think I can only see what's happening bin Romford.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,885
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trump lawsuits. This video uploaded earlier today runs through the various Trump lawsuits, what they claimed, why they were (mostly) dismissed, and why Pennsylvania cases might be different.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha7iWECm_8E

    That's 30 minutes long!

    I expect the Trump administration to prevail and prevent the counting of late arriving ballots in PA. The legislature said they needed to be recieved by election day. The State Supreme Court said they could arrive up to three days late because of postal delays. (Postal delays, I would add, that the Trump administration aided and abetted.) But I think the SC will say that the legislature has spoken, and that the State Supreme Court cannot overturn it.

    That will not change the PA vote, because those ballots have been set aside and have not been counted pending a decision.
    Spoiler, the most recent case is not different. Its the one trying to stop Penn certifying its results.

    It's based on the notion that mail in voting is unconstitutional.
    I'm not sure even Clarence Thomas goes down that road.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,812


    He is a loser.

    L O S E R.

    LOSER! SAD!

    Being serious, he's worse than a loser, he's a loser who is still crying that he should be the winner when the rest of the world has literally moved on without him. Every global ally has congratulated Biden on winning. Even Fox has. It is over.

    Quite. Unfortunately, as happened in Germany in 1918, the myth is being created and that will resonate for a long period to come (just as those who claim JFK stole the 1960 election from Nixon thanks to Mayor Daley).

    The myth will be "big business and the global elite stole the election from Trump". Now, the cynic might argue Trump and the GOP, who are well represented in positions of power in several key states, had all the opportunities to ensure the election was as going to be as difficult to win as possible for the Democrats.

    Yet we are to believe Republican state and election officials were so inept they not only failed to ensure Trump would win but somehow allowed the Democrats to put thousands of fraudulent ballots into the process and to utilise software which credited thousands of Trump votes to Biden.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,848
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    They arrive at 1900 GMT each evening and are powered down around 2100 as a rule.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1326207323078074375?s=19

    Maybe Pence thought Coronavirus was all over in July?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    kjh said:

    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.

    The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
    Expert on Pennsylvania electoral law are you?
    No, I am no lawyer and these are just my interpretations.

    But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
    It doesn't matter how many times you repeat an untrue statement it is still untrue.
    I decided in the spirit of science to try this....

    So I read a massive from Giuliani on election fraud. 10 times. Literally.

    It's still false.

    A point for the graph.....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,077

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Mal557 said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Pulpstar said:

    532 covid deaths in the UK reported today. Backdating blah blah, weekend effect etc etc. That's an appalling number.

    what? surely some mistake?
    I agree its a horrendous headline number, I know there will be caveats and the Murder Tuesday quotes, but its still awful. Thank god the news on the vaccine front seems very positive. That was always the way out of this and the fact it may begin roll out as soon as the end of the year or early next is great news. But until then sadly these numbers like today are still going to be around.
    Fuck. And we're probably still weeks from peak deaths. November is going be just fucking awful.
    Unlikely. We haven't seen the cases rise in a while. This should be the peak.
    We can hope so, though the ZOE data for my bit of NE London has started increasing sharply again after a week or so of gentle decline. Now that's one borough, but the timings are pretty consistent with a strong school effect.
    As for the national total, that could be a decrease from high rates in the places which were in T3, combined with an increase from a lower base in the rest of the country.
    The effect of Lockdown 2 (Electric Avenue) should kick in in the stats towards the end of this week, shouldn't they?
    How do you access the Zoe data at that level? I’ve only seen regional data?
    Do you use the app? I think seeing the stats for your area is the incentive for entering your data. So I think I can only see what's happening bin Romford.
    Yes I do use it. Thinking about, I migh5 have seen data for Wiltshire at one point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1326207323078074375?s=19

    Maybe Pence thought Coronavirus was all over in July?

    Perhaps he thinks it is in God's hands?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,209

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage...

    Sure.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited November 2020
    Alistair said:
    It's indeed very difficult to conclude that there's anything other than a concerted anti-democratic push going on, here. Are the Republicans still democrats, so to speak ? They're going to have to prove it, if they want their Republic to last, in the long-term.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748

    Omnium said:

    Biden is much better as president elect than he was as a candidate. Calmer and clearer, more presidential.

    He is isn't he - he also seems far livelier. Of course the campaign trail is notoriously hard, and victory undoubtedly sweet. I'm really pleased that he seems to be reinvigorated by all this though. I thought he was totally past-it but I cannot be more delighted than to be proved wrong.

    He looks like a potentially very good President, and I have to admit that some of my prior concerns seem wildly misplaced.
    He must be on a bit of high. This is a the top job on the planet (as far as he is concerned, certainly). One that he has reached for several times, and lost. And he finally has it.
    Yep. When all these people achieve high office you can certainly spend a moment to celebrate and congratulate them on their personal achievement. Biden must be positively glowing and good for him.

  • gealbhan said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    It is 100% stone cold over. The election is done, and Biden won.
    Only because you think Biden has PA AZ and GA delegates from this? But nothing progresses as expected with Trump. he’s not a loser. He applies pressure and gets his way.
    Applying pressure to get his way is certainly Trump's MO, he's certainly good at it, and in some fields it's certainly effective.

    But whilst he can chisel dollars of the cost of an ugly hotel building, chiselling votes off Biden's totals in the right states isn't the same thing at all. Is it?

  • Trumps strategy seems to be to get his supporters behind him so they can put pressure on politicians and the courts. If you look at the votes as they came in in some of the key swing states there was a period when counting stopped then when it restarted there were massive dumping of votes for biden. Now this may be legit but this is one of the bbcs signs of a rigged election ie sudden unexplained stopping of vote counting. This is not evidence per se but it is like a smoking gun to perhaps investigate more. Of course other politicians may have let it slide but Trump sure aint ordinary
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,905
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,209

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, the options aren't:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Lawsuits cause election result to be overturned and Trump wins

    They are:

    - Biden wins election
    or
    - Civil war

    I’m thinking the Democrat side may be far too polite to fight a war. If the Supreme Court hands those three states to Trump, what will Dems do? Other than push a policy to expand the SC next time they win power.
    Why would the Supreme Court hand those over?

    Indeed, given that they have ruled (usually 9-0) against Trump on pretty much every case that's reached them in the last four years, why do you think they're about to become raging Trump fans who'd be prepared to overturn an election result (and a not particularly close one at that) and risk civil war?
    Some of the cases are not being brought by Trump, as I understand it, but by the attorney generals of other states.
    The attorneys general of other states have no standing to bring suits about elections outside of their state.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    Opinion being sold as news. There is also a film at 11.

    We have come a long long way from the days of - "Some men from the press to see you. And a gentlemen from The Times".
  • peter505 said:

    Trumps strategy seems to be to get his supporters behind him so they can put pressure on politicians and the courts. If you look at the votes as they came in in some of the key swing states there was a period when counting stopped then when it restarted there were massive dumping of votes for biden. Now this may be legit but this is one of the bbcs signs of a rigged election ie sudden unexplained stopping of vote counting. This is not evidence per se but it is like a smoking gun to perhaps investigate more. Of course other politicians may have let it slide but Trump sure aint ordinary

    There's no sudden, "unexplained" stopping of counting.
  • glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    Yes, and the strange thing is, it didn't matter to a whole bunch of other people, until suddenly it did.

    I'll let you in on a secret, though. Just for you, so don't tell anyone. It didn't matter, it doesn't matter. It never will matter. The history books will devote precisely zero words to this. We can all relax.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Who ate all the pies ?

    The nurses featured here don't seem to have gone short:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54877668

    The lack of a major anti-obesity / general healthy eating and lifestyle campaign is madness.

    Lovely post. Wanna show us a picture of you in your shreddies so we can calibrate it?
    I'll leave that sort of thing to SeanT.

    But my BMI is just within the 'normal' band and is down on the year.

    Something I'd recommend to everyone given the correlation between obesity and covid effects.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,209

    I have been listening to Rudy Giuliani a LOT

    You have both my admiration, and sympathy.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,034
    edited November 2020
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.

    (i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.

    (ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.

    My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    That hundred year war ended far too soon - garlic eaters!

    (I'm very fond of French people - some of my best friends)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    UK cases by specimen date

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    UK cases by specimen date and by 100K population

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    UK R

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  • glwglw Posts: 9,549
    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    Just on a technical point, how can they have fifty witnesses to something that they were prevented from observing?
    Contrarian is just regurgitating any old bullshit from far-right conspiracy theorists. He clearly doesn't actually understand the issues or the facts, he's just a wind-up merchant, not sure why anyone wastes time trying to argue with him to be honest. He seems to believe NC finally being called for Trump is significant.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    UK case summary

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539
    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    Now if it had been Macron then Boris, some journalists would he banging on about it for weeks, months, years...
    It's funny how the order in which Biden called European leaders really mattered right up until the point he called Boris first, and now it doesn't matter at all. If I was feeling particularly petty I could go back through the posts today and name and shame, mostly remainers I expect.
    I think it's great we got the fist call.

    To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we were thirty-second, so long as we were ahead of France.
    I don't suppose it really means anything, somebody has to be first, and somebody else last. For all we know Biden simply wanted to get the call with Boris over with as soon as possible. :)
    Especiallyt if he wanted to cut the risk of any Irish border nonsense - remember the Act is going through Pmt at the moment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    UK Hospitals

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  • kjh said:

    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    gealbhan said:

    And a big confident smile as well.

    Anyone think it’s 100% cold stone dead? Of course you don’t, because that would be thinking in a universe where all the current rules and laws are followed, but we know the coming weeks will not be like that. The longer it goes on without conceding the more you know they are having dialogue behind the scenes, the Republicans have 70% of the party behind Trump and very nearly half of everyone who voted, that’s immense pressure, don’t underestimate that. Some examples of the alternate universe to expect, recounts which return different results, Supreme Court ruling if you wrote it Pence it gets counted for Trump Pence, etc.

    If Biden wins Arizona and Penn. its with much smaller margins than we thought a few days ago. Is there anyone who really thinks it’s 100% over?
    Re Pennsylvania, is that true?

    The consensus on the site was 75,000 votes without late arriving postals, and 100,000 with them. That - I think - is going to be spot on with the first number. There have been far fewer late arriving postals (c. 10,000) than some people had forecast, but as I don't think they'll be counted, is it really relevant?
    I understand the repubs contend that 600,000 plus ballots between Philly and Pittsburgh have been counted whle zero of their staff there to supervise, because they were thrown out or denied access by officials They have fifty or more witnesses to this, plus footage.

    Whether those ballots are legal or not, they are illegal, because no repub was there to supervise the opening. That renders them illegal.

    If the supreme court takes the view that officials have the right to bar one side or the other from ballot examinations for extended periods of time, while counting goes on, then surely, all bets are off. Its a free for all. Whoever wins.

    That is absolutely not true,

    They allege that the area where both they and Democrats were allotted to oversee the count were too far away, and that it should have been closer

    They do not claim that there were no observers at all.

    In any case, it's super easy to work out if there's fraud.

    (1) Look at the swing to the Democrats in cities and suburbs other than Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (2) Compare it to that achieved in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh.
    (3) Is there a meaningfully larger swing?

    If there is, then do a random sample of 2,000 postal voters. Confirm they did actually vote by mail.

    Now given every ballot paper is counted by a machine and is barcoded, this should give you confidence, so long as they all say yes.

    If you are still suspicious, then you can ask those 2,000 people to submit secret ballots again, and compare them to the results of the election.
    As I understand it they claim none of their representatives were able to observe the ballot opening process for an extended period. I don;'t see how 'well the democrats weren't either' is any kind of defence, even if it were true.

    The fact is the repubs have a right to inspect all mail in ballots They were denied that right. And the votes counted when they were denied that right are not legal votes, as I understand it.
    Expert on Pennsylvania electoral law are you?
    No, I am no lawyer and these are just my interpretations.

    But it seems to me that this system that relies very widely on mail in ballots, of whatever side, and allows ballots being sent unsolicited. Barring both sides from supervising the opening of all ballots at all times is a recipe for, well, something pretty awful.
    It doesn't matter how many times you repeat an untrue statement it is still untrue.
    I decided in the spirit of science to try this....

    So I read a massive from Giuliani on election fraud. 10 times. Literally.

    It's still false.

    A point for the graph.....
    Without wishing to offend the religious, one of the reasons organised religions have been so influential through history is that they repeat lies endlessly, repeatedly and with great conviction until more and more followers believe them. At that point, the lies are effectively true for those who operate within their domain, even if the lies never actually become true.

    Trumpism is better understood as a religious movement or cult rather than a rational, scientific movement.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Scott_xP said:
    I like that position, ignore Trump and carry on, the more Trump thinks he's being ignored the more irrational he will become until the men in suits come for him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    UK Deaths

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,473

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    BBC News - Greg Clarke resigns as Football Association chairman after remark about black players
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54894864

    It just wasn't comment about black players, he's guilty of the worst stereotyping.
    The BBC news tv report that was just on was highly misleading. They only covered the fact he used the term coloured and made an absolute massive deal out of how racist this is, when actually it was a whole range of things...gay is a life style choice...christ alive.
    Little girls don't want balls kicked hard at them.
    To be fair in regards to that, I believe he said that is what coaches told him? I don't know the context. Was he saying this is what coaches say, thus girls are crap at football or was he saying coaches say this and thus we need to change coaching? I honestly don't know.
    As the head of a large organisation he ought not to leave any doubt.
    Well he is clearly as thick as mince. Even a sexist racist homophobe in front of parliamentary select committee would know some stock responses e.g. why no openly gay players...has in the past been a hostile environment, concerns about how fans react, other sports like rugby been better, we strive to do more to make it such that should a player wish to come out they know there will be full backing and support....instead, well its a lifestyle choice innit.
    Are we absolutely sure it was him? Sounds like Sacha Baron Cohen has pulled another one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,158
    UK R

    From cases

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    From hospital admissions

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,539

    Who ate all the pies ?

    The nurses featured here don't seem to have gone short:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54877668

    The lack of a major anti-obesity / general healthy eating and lifestyle campaign is madness.

    Mr Johnson loudly proclaimed just such a campaign in, IIRC, July. It was England-specific, so i can't express any opinion on its quality etc.
  • kinabalu said:

    Re the US supreme court.

    Did RBG consider stepping down in 2008-14 when she was 75+ and the Dems had the Presidency and a Senate majority ?

    When you miss an opportunity like that don't complain afterwards.

    Don't complain about what?
    Getting replaced under less favourable circumstances.

    The way American politicians and judges go on and on and on and on almost justifies the House of Lords.

    At least we can put the venerable oldies in a place where they can burble on without the whole country hanging on their state of health.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,873
    I think that is a route for Kamala to win


  • isamisam Posts: 40,873
    edited November 2020
    :)


  • glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Completely off-topic, the new Macs have absolutely atrocious pricing for memory and storage upgrades.
  • kinabalu said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Is it just me, or do the Trumpy zoomers on here arrive and leave in a group?
    Sock puppets?

    There's 2 types of posters who are talking up Trump's chances of ignoring the election and taking America rogue.

    (i) Those who are very fearful of it and are failing to think rationally in the face of that fear.

    (ii) Alt Right types who adore Donald Trump so much that fascism looks good to them if it keeps him in power.

    My ire and contempt is 100% for category (ii).
    For clarity, I'm talking entirely about category (ii). The ones who are trying to build a narrative that maybe this is still on!!!!1!
    But it ain't on. It's flatlining. It's head isn't even attached. And I'm heartened to see so many people of diverse political opinions just kicking the absolute shit out of their nonsense. I mean, it's shooting fish in a barrel, but it's fabulous to see.
  • UK Deaths

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    These graphs look promising, if that's the right word. Unless I'm very much mistaken, the changes also seem to slightly precede the lockdown.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,812
    peter505 said:

    Trumps strategy seems to be to get his supporters behind him so they can put pressure on politicians and the courts. If you look at the votes as they came in in some of the key swing states there was a period when counting stopped then when it restarted there were massive dumping of votes for biden. Now this may be legit but this is one of the bbcs signs of a rigged election ie sudden unexplained stopping of vote counting. This is not evidence per se but it is like a smoking gun to perhaps investigate more. Of course other politicians may have let it slide but Trump sure aint ordinary

    I thought it varied from State to State and in some States such as Pennsylvania, the votes cast on Election Day were counted or tallied first and these gave Trump a 14-point lead. Then the mail-in ballots were counted and I can understand a break or pause before that started and, given the much larger number of these than in previous elections and the fact these ballots were strongly pro-Biden, it might appear there was a sudden "dumping" of votes for Biden.

    All this was foreseen - the resources required for counting the mail-in ballots may not have been adequate in all states to deal with the volume and as we know some states allowed late ballots as long as they were post-marked before the close of polling.

    I simply don't see what's suspicious or fraudulent about any of this. Trump was always going to win among those voting on the day but the mail-in ballots were strongly favouring Biden.

    The different rules between states do understandably cause some confusion but that's the benefit of a Federal system (apparently).
This discussion has been closed.