If they are like early voting then it is a huge Trump win. If they split like Penn then Biden wins.
At a guess, mail-in voting in Alaska is a lot more common because of the geography and climate. Therefore the considerations that have pitched it Biden's way in other states wont apply.
"Just under 40% of registered Democrats in Alaska have requested absentee ballots compared to 21% of registered Republicans. Just over 17% of independents have requested absentee ballots in Alaska."
TRying to track down 2016's mix. More than twice as many mail ballots as 2016.
But, looking at the raw numbers I agree with you - I don't think the split is going to be close to what the Dems need.
Looking at those tables you almost wonder whether NC is in play??
DEM is 6.4 on Betfair...
Its ridiculous that we're not getting any counting in NC.
When the Needle stopped Biden wasn't out of the count yet in NC, indeed at one stage the Needle gave Georgia more to Trump than it was showing in NC when it stopped.
I read that the unreported votes in NC were votes that had been issued but not yet returned, and that was why there was no counting going on. Is that not right?
I don't believe so, I believe they're waiting for all the votes to be returned before counting the remaining votes but they have mail in votes left to count (and more will have arrived already that could be counted already too). Its ridiculous to just stop for a week.
Thanks. I had been thinking on the basis of what I'd read that Trump was probably safe there because many of the ballots might not be returned. But if the unreported percentage represents real ballots, then Trump may not be at all safe.
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
That's confirmation bias. Some Trumpers no doubt feel that way, but there was also a lot of error in college graduate support for Trump:
"This may explain why the polls didn’t do badly in predicting the white non-graduate vote but failed miserably among white graduates. According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right."
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
Interesting. My wife made a not particularly complimentary comparison between Chris Cuomo's immaculate black suit and my oil stained jeans and tattered Jesus & Mary Chain t-shirt.
You got oil on your J&M Chain tee? Have you NO RESPECT FOR ANYTHING???
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
There were, 538's final forecast for the popular vote was Biden 53.4% and Trump 45.4%, it is currently Biden 50.5% and Trump 47.7% in the national popular vote
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
I suspect the overseas/military ballots will be small in number. I’d also think the majority of US Military ballots would be in early (and therefore counted) since their forces organise big voting days on their bases well in advance. Provisionals (and there don’t look to be that many) might be more R leaning due to on the day stuff, but Abrams has been going in hard on Get Out The Ballot Cure so that may end up favouring dems. That’s quite marginal stuff though. Biden is looking at 3-4k once Fulton and Gwinnett report which should be enough to survive most of the shit the GOP will throw. Especially given how lamesauce their challenges have been.
Also - judging from the PA SoS presser yesterday - it seems that the mail-in votes have come in quicker than usual. All the publicity from the Reps about challenging the process and hindering USPS may have got the vote in early.
In Georgia it seems to have totally and royally pissed off the African-American population. Voter suppression needs to be subtle and have a thin veneer of respectability, which is why the GOP were good at it. When you do stupid, flagrant bullshit you let voters know what’s up and they’ll vote just to spite you.
Georgia rules on recounts -
Recount law: Yes.
State law mandate recounts?: No.
Can a recount be requested?: Yes.
Under what circumstances?: A margin of no more than .5 percent of total votes cast for office.
Deadline to request a non-mandatory recount: Two business days after county certification.
With maybe still a chance of being wrong with their AZ prediction they are being over cautious of anything bad for Trump?
According to 538 there is a lot of tension between the pro-Trump Fox hosts and their ostensibly neutral decision desk.
Their DD uses a big survey over the week prior to voting day to estimate the voting behaviours of early and mail-ins. That’s shared with AP. My guess is that the data they’re seeing is still tracking with the data in their survey which is why they’re standing by the call. The next batch of Maricopa drops is less late-mail in and more on-the-day mail in. Also much more NPA voters in the sample according to the coterie of AZ Twitter quants. If that’s what their DD is seeing I suspect they expect the last batches out of Maricopa to be far less Trump friendly.
I think this is genuinely what a 90% chance for Biden looks like. Some utterly dogshit polling, yet Biden still will win.
Feels more like a 75% chance to me.
It could have gone wrong for Biden.
EDIT: that's a hindsight "last week" view; it's over 99.9% sure Biden wins now.
Yes, if you took a very simplistic view on election eve and said:
"Pennsylvania is key. Biden is up 4.7% in PA and falling in the 538 polling average. According to 538 the weighted-average error in polls in final 21 days of the campaign in 2016 was 5.2% and the average going back to 1972 was 4.8%. So maybe a 50% chance of a big enough polling error in PA. Which could be in either direction, but perhaps there were reasons to think it more likely to be in Trump's direction - so very simplistically Trump has about one third chance of winning. That overstates his chances of the presidency because PA is almost a must-win for Trump, but Biden has a couple of plausible alternatives, but without PA they are still longshots so Trump has a chance somewhere around 25%"
This would have been somewhere in the middle of the 538 model forecast and Betfair, I think. So still a bit of value for the Biden backers (I didn't bet any money).
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
I suspect the overseas/military ballots will be small in number. I’d also think the majority of US Military ballots would be in early (and therefore counted) since their forces organise big voting days on their bases well in advance. Provisionals (and there don’t look to be that many) might be more R leaning due to on the day stuff, but Abrams has been going in hard on Get Out The Ballot Cure so that may end up favouring dems. That’s quite marginal stuff though. Biden is looking at 3-4k once Fulton and Gwinnett report which should be enough to survive most of the shit the GOP will throw. Especially given how lamesauce their challenges have been.
Also - judging from the PA SoS presser yesterday - it seems that the mail-in votes have come in quicker than usual. All the publicity from the Reps about challenging the process and hindering USPS may have got the vote in early.
In Georgia it seems to have totally and royally pissed off the African-American population. Voter suppression needs to be subtle and have a thin veneer of respectability, which is why the GOP were good at it. When you do stupid, flagrant bullshit you let voters know what’s up and they’ll vote just to spite you.
Georgia rules on recounts -
Recount law: Yes.
State law mandate recounts?: No.
Can a recount be requested?: Yes.
Under what circumstances?: A margin of no more than .5 percent of total votes cast for office.
Deadline to request a non-mandatory recount: Two business days after county certification.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
If Trump had not gained votes on 2016 - say he lost some moderates who'd reluctantly voted for him due to Clinton, but gained some more voters who believed he'd kept his promises - then it would have been easier to dump him.
As it is he has had a surge in support. It's a bit like Corbyn 2017.
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
Interesting. My wife made a not particularly complimentary comparison between Chris Cuomo's immaculate black suit and my oil stained jeans and tattered Jesus & Mary Chain t-shirt.
Trump is holding a mirror to those who supported people doing all they could not to implement the Leave victory, but I don’t think they recognise themselves
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
I suspect the overseas/military ballots will be small in number. I’d also think the majority of US Military ballots would be in early (and therefore counted) since their forces organise big voting days on their bases well in advance. Provisionals (and there don’t look to be that many) might be more R leaning due to on the day stuff, but Abrams has been going in hard on Get Out The Ballot Cure so that may end up favouring dems. That’s quite marginal stuff though. Biden is looking at 3-4k once Fulton and Gwinnett report which should be enough to survive most of the shit the GOP will throw. Especially given how lamesauce their challenges have been.
Also - judging from the PA SoS presser yesterday - it seems that the mail-in votes have come in quicker than usual. All the publicity from the Reps about challenging the process and hindering USPS may have got the vote in early.
In Georgia it seems to have totally and royally pissed off the African-American population. Voter suppression needs to be subtle and have a thin veneer of respectability, which is why the GOP were good at it. When you do stupid, flagrant bullshit you let voters know what’s up and they’ll vote just to spite you.
Georgia rules on recounts -
Recount law: Yes.
State law mandate recounts?: No.
Can a recount be requested?: Yes.
Under what circumstances?: A margin of no more than .5 percent of total votes cast for office.
Deadline to request a non-mandatory recount: Two business days after county certification.
Trump is holding a mirror to those who supported people doing all they could not to implement the Leave victory, but I don’t think they recognise themselves
Agreed, the ERG really did hold things up necessarily for a couple of years.
"The speech had been proceeding for perhaps twenty minutes when a messenger hurried on to the platform and a scrap of paper was slipped into the speaker’s hand. He unrolled and read it without pausing in his speech. Nothing altered in his voice or manner, or in the content of what he was saying, but suddenly the names were different. Without words said, a wave of understanding rippled through the crowd. Oceania was at war with Eastasia! The Hate continued exactly as before, except that the target had been changed."
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
That's confirmation bias. Some Trumpers no doubt feel that way, but there was also a lot of error in college graduate support for Trump:
"This may explain why the polls didn’t do badly in predicting the white non-graduate vote but failed miserably among white graduates. According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right."
Here's what Luntz actually said:
Luntz explained the discrepancy by telling Hemmer that Trump voters “do not like participating in surveys.”
“They think that the information is going to be used against them, they think it is all part of the swamp, they think that it is part of CNN or the New York Times,” Luntz said.
“The only time that they’ll participate is if they know that they are having an impact [and] hey know that the people of Washington are actually listening to them rather than ignoring them or forgetting them," he added. "So it is really hard to do accurate polling if you got a segment of the population that simply refuses to participate. But, good for them. They have the right to know that they are being heard and that’s one of the reasons why they’re voting for Donald Trump.”
(Edit: Sorry - that's slightly unfair. I don't know why it appeared as "breaking". They did actually report it only about a quarter of an hour after it was announced.)
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
There were, 538's final forecast for the popular vote was Biden 53.4% and Trump 45.4%, it is currently Biden 50.5% and Trump 47.7% in the national popular vote
You'd have thought that will widen somewhat. Biden will squeeze another million lead out of California for a start - he's 4 million up with a quarter of the vote still to count. In several other places which are no longer relevant as they've been called long ago, outstanding ballots will be mainly postal which tends to favour Biden.
There will still have been a polling miss - and some pollsters did VERY badly. But will that be "Shy Trumpers" necessarily? It feels much too early to say - could be bad weighting in other respects, or errors over propensity to vote.
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
Yes, I think it's not so much that Trump support is a "guilty pleasure" kept secret for fear of social exile, it's more that pollsters do not reach Trump supporters in proportionate numbers for some reason. But the effect is the same - he outperforms the polls in the real vote - and "shy Trumpers" is imo a reasonable enough shorthand description of it.
One thing we'll miss when Trump goes is his gift for the catchphrase. Single syllable words in groups of three. Gets a crowd going like nothing else. 'Drain The Swamp'- 'Stop The Count'- 'Four More Years' -'Lock Her Up'-'Count The Votes'
Timothy Leary's 'Tune In Turn On and Drop Out' sounds positively clunky in comparison
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Trump is holding a mirror to those who supported people doing all they could not to implement the Leave victory, but I don’t think they recognise themselves
But Trump is talking about random legal cases with no basis in fact and no chance of succeeding, aimed at overturning a vote... Oh wait, yes, I see what you’re saying.
DDHQ says that California count is running at 72%-86%
Biden's popular vote lead is surely going to grow significantly when that's counted.
Is California's delay primarily mail in votes or other votes? They seem to always be insanely slow every year.
Biden at better than evens to get more than 52% of the votes is value IMO.
People are just underestimating how much California + late votes will swing it his way. Plenty of other populous blue states are still counting too I think (NY, NJ, MA, MD, IL). The really red ones still going are only MS, LA, KY, KS...
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
If Trump had not gained votes on 2016 - say he lost some moderates who'd reluctantly voted for him due to Clinton, but gained some more voters who believed he'd kept his promises - then it would have been easier to dump him.
As it is he has had a surge in support. It's a bit like Corbyn 2017.
But politics is a bit different in the US. In the UK there is an officieal leader of the opposition, and Corbyn remained the LOTO. In the US there is not really a LOTO. There can be a leader of the House or of the Senate, but the outgoing president is not in the house or the senate. In essence there is no direct equivalent of LOTO in the US. The GOP will be open for new challengers to step up in the next 3 years, and Trump will not be in a good place to keep those challengers down.
Finally the other big difference is that Corbyn was never PM, so a better analogy is Heath in 74. Heath managed to stay in place and fight third election in 74, but it was never realistic that he would be allowed to fight a fourth election in 78 or 79.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
That was a spiteful response to a relatively gentle rebuke...
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
In all fairness to @HYUFD his comments last night after Trump's 'speech' suggest he has rapidly reprised that view!
Just to repeat my early morning observartion. Alaska is on a knife edge
There are 16000 early votes to count. The existing early vote split 51/49 to Biden There are 116,730 mail votes to count. None have been counted
Biden is behind by 54,610
If the mail ballots split 74/26 then Biden wins.
No mail ballots have been counted.
My legendary modesty prevents me from mentioning that I tipped Alaska at 11/2 with BetWay.
Seriously, if Biden wins Alaska, I'll start believing Trump has a point about a rigged ballot....
There was one poll (I think) showing Biden just ahead prior to the election. It has a very high unaffiliated number of voters, and these days is only about 65% white I think.
Trump had 51.28% last time and Clinton only 36.55% but weirdly there was a high 3rd party vote with 5.88% for Johnson, 1.80% for Greens and 4.49% for others.
So I can see a bit of consolidation under Biden this time, leading to a closer miss for him.
Yes; I worked for a global tech firm with lots of very clever American ex-forces types who'd graduated on Uncle Sam's dollar. I understand we in Britain are better at this than we used to be but I still remember being shocked 20-odd years ago when overhearing homeless (and sometimes disabled) guys discussing problems with their military pensions.
They are better at managing people with problems at discharge but the pensions are substantially worse. Anybody who joined up after 2005 got fucked and anybody who joined after 2015 got fucked in every hole.
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
There were, 538's final forecast for the popular vote was Biden 53.4% and Trump 45.4%, it is currently Biden 50.5% and Trump 47.7% in the national popular vote
You'd have thought that will widen somewhat. Biden will squeeze another million lead out of California for a start - he's 4 million up with a quarter of the vote still to count. In several other places which are no longer relevant as they've been called long ago, outstanding ballots will be mainly postal which tends to favour Biden.
There will still have been a polling miss - and some pollsters did VERY badly. But will that be "Shy Trumpers" necessarily? It feels much too early to say - could be bad weighting in other respects, or errors over propensity to vote.
I think you can make a very decent argument for DK=Trump. Indeed my supposition was the the polls would tighten much more than they did with DK converting to Trump. I think I said a 4-6 point polling lead come election day.
That didn't come to pass but I suspect if you simply add DKs to Trump's vote share the polls would actually do pretty well at the national level
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
There were, 538's final forecast for the popular vote was Biden 53.4% and Trump 45.4%, it is currently Biden 50.5% and Trump 47.7% in the national popular vote
Before jumping to conclusions remember what happened in 2016. Everyone immediately said the polls were wrong because of political correctness and shy Trump voters. Subsequent analysis showed that shy Trumpers probably played little role in the polling misses (which were also not as big as initially claimed).
In terms of the national vote, Biden's lead is sure to grow, and may end up not that far off the 8% forecast.
I'm guessing that big AZ one is Maricopa, which was R+3 and is currently D+3. I'm not sure a binary color scheme is useful here.
Nor is the binary assumption that remaining mail in ballots favour Biden. Clearly not the case in AZ, and probably not in other States more accustomed to mail in voting prior to this election, Don't know if that is the case with AK or not.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
One thing we'll miss when Trump goes is his gift for the catchphrase. Single syllable words in groups of three. Gets a crowd going like nothing else. 'Drain The Swamp'- 'Stop The Count'- 'Four More Years' -'Lock Her Up'-'Count The Votes'
Timothy Leary's 'Tune In Turn On and Drop Out' sounds positively clunky in comparison
Four More Years wasn't coined by Trump, that's bog standard for Presidents seeking re-election.
Sorry old bean, but that is pure speculation on your part. May I suggest that you speak less in absolutes and more in suggestions? Eg. "It is possible that..." or "IMHO the government has lost support because..."
My belief/speculation is that as with many things, the public, who are less interested in politics than those on here, have eventually caught up with the fact that Boris Johnson is not a leader, that he is an incompetent buffoon, and they have stopped giving him the benefit of the doubt. It is also my opinion that they are now giving a serious look at Labour who they are giving the benefit of the doubt to as they have a smart professional looking leader. Simples! Tories should ditch The Clown asap.
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
That's confirmation bias. Some Trumpers no doubt feel that way, but there was also a lot of error in college graduate support for Trump:
"This may explain why the polls didn’t do badly in predicting the white non-graduate vote but failed miserably among white graduates. According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right."
Here's what Luntz actually said:
Luntz explained the discrepancy by telling Hemmer that Trump voters “do not like participating in surveys.”
“They think that the information is going to be used against them, they think it is all part of the swamp, they think that it is part of CNN or the New York Times,” Luntz said.
“The only time that they’ll participate is if they know that they are having an impact [and] hey know that the people of Washington are actually listening to them rather than ignoring them or forgetting them," he added. "So it is really hard to do accurate polling if you got a segment of the population that simply refuses to participate. But, good for them. They have the right to know that they are being heard and that’s one of the reasons why they’re voting for Donald Trump.”
I know what Luntz said. The article I posted has links to actual polling.
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
Yes, I think it's not so much that Trump support is a "guilty pleasure" kept secret for fear of social exile, it's more that pollsters do not reach Trump supporters in proportionate numbers for some reason. But the effect is the same - he outperforms the polls in the real vote - and "shy Trumpers" is imo a reasonable enough shorthand description of it.
Is the error not more likely to be in estimating the turnout, when it has been so different from normal?
He was up against an easily ridiculed, populist leader of a divided party, with an electorate tired of chaotic politics and crying out for competent governance.
As Owen says, Biden really ought to have cruised to an easy victory just like Jezza did last December.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
If Trump had not gained votes on 2016 - say he lost some moderates who'd reluctantly voted for him due to Clinton, but gained some more voters who believed he'd kept his promises - then it would have been easier to dump him.
As it is he has had a surge in support. It's a bit like Corbyn 2017.
But politics is a bit different in the US. In the UK there is an officieal leader of the opposition, and Corbyn remained the LOTO. In the US there is not really a LOTO. There can be a leader of the House or of the Senate, but the outgoing president is not in the house or the senate. In essence there is no direct equivalent of LOTO in the US. The GOP will be open for new challengers to step up in the next 3 years, and Trump will not be in a good place to keep those challengers down.
Finally the other big difference is that Corbyn was never PM, so a better analogy is Heath in 74. Heath managed to stay in place and fight third election in 74, but it was never realistic that he would be allowed to fight a fourth election in 78 or 79.
If Trump both sets up a TV channel and fancies a go as an independent candidate, then the GOP is in real trouble for a few cycles isn’t it?
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Well, the insults are unnecessary, if you post partisan stuff expect it to be commented on negatively (as well as positively by others).
Stacy Abrams should have been Biden's VP pick. She is a better campaigner than Kamala Harris, while not frightening the horses. She also, most importantly, gets things done. (Oh, and I might have backed her at big prices.)
One thing we'll miss when Trump goes is his gift for the catchphrase. Single syllable words in groups of three. Gets a crowd going like nothing else. 'Drain The Swamp'- 'Stop The Count'- 'Four More Years' -'Lock Her Up'-'Count The Votes'
Timothy Leary's 'Tune In Turn On and Drop Out' sounds positively clunky in comparison
Indeed. We must therefore look upon 'grab em by the pussy' as Trump's À la recherche du temps perdu.
Comments
TRying to track down 2016's mix. More than twice as many mail ballots as 2016.
But, looking at the raw numbers I agree with you - I don't think the split is going to be close to what the Dems need.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
"This may explain why the polls didn’t do badly in predicting the white non-graduate vote but failed miserably among white graduates. According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right."
7/1 now best available on betfair (very small amounts).
Philly alone will switch PA let alone other counties.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
1h
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (+2)
CON: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 7% (+1)
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1324465320371884033
Recount law: Yes.
State law mandate recounts?: No.
Can a recount be requested?: Yes.
Under what circumstances?: A margin of no more than .5 percent of total votes cast for office.
Deadline to request a non-mandatory recount: Two business days after county certification.
Who pays for the recount?: State.
Can a partial recount be requested?: No.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/recount-laws-key-states-presidential-race-n1246618
"Pennsylvania is key. Biden is up 4.7% in PA and falling in the 538 polling average. According to 538 the weighted-average error in polls in final 21 days of the campaign in 2016 was 5.2% and the average going back to 1972 was 4.8%. So maybe a 50% chance of a big enough polling error in PA. Which could be in either direction, but perhaps there were reasons to think it more likely to be in Trump's direction - so very simplistically Trump has about one third chance of winning.
That overstates his chances of the presidency because PA is almost a must-win for Trump, but Biden has a couple of plausible alternatives, but without PA they are still longshots so Trump has a chance somewhere around 25%"
This would have been somewhere in the middle of the 538 model forecast and Betfair, I think. So still a bit of value for the Biden backers (I didn't bet any money).
Cal me sceptical that a broadcast data computer has anything else installed on it.
As it is he has had a surge in support. It's a bit like Corbyn 2017.
Whomp whomp
Remind me: where's CDC based?
So I think it certain that there will be a recount in Georgia.
So much of the lost Tory vote has gone to the Brexit Party not Labour after the new lockdown
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/all
Biden's popular vote lead is surely going to grow significantly when that's counted.
Is California's delay primarily mail in votes or other votes? They seem to always be insanely slow every year.
Luntz explained the discrepancy by telling Hemmer that Trump voters “do not like participating in surveys.”
“They think that the information is going to be used against them, they think it is all part of the swamp, they think that it is part of CNN or the New York Times,” Luntz said.
“The only time that they’ll participate is if they know that they are having an impact [and] hey know that the people of Washington are actually listening to them rather than ignoring them or forgetting them," he added. "So it is really hard to do accurate polling if you got a segment of the population that simply refuses to participate. But, good for them. They have the right to know that they are being heard and that’s one of the reasons why they’re voting for Donald Trump.”
Biden has taken the lead in Georgia!
(Edit: Sorry - that's slightly unfair. I don't know why it appeared as "breaking". They did actually report it only about a quarter of an hour after it was announced.)
There will still have been a polling miss - and some pollsters did VERY badly. But will that be "Shy Trumpers" necessarily? It feels much too early to say - could be bad weighting in other respects, or errors over propensity to vote.
Timothy Leary's 'Tune In Turn On and Drop Out' sounds positively clunky in comparison
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
@MaxPB where are those defection prices?
I got on at 6.8, but that was back in October. Bit of a fun bet at the time.
People are just underestimating how much California + late votes will swing it his way. Plenty of other populous blue states are still counting too I think (NY, NJ, MA, MD, IL). The really red ones still going are only MS, LA, KY, KS...
Finally the other big difference is that Corbyn was never PM, so a better analogy is Heath in 74. Heath managed to stay in place and fight third election in 74, but it was never realistic that he would be allowed to fight a fourth election in 78 or 79.
No chance now.
Trump had 51.28% last time and Clinton only 36.55% but weirdly there was a high 3rd party vote with 5.88% for Johnson, 1.80% for Greens and 4.49% for others.
So I can see a bit of consolidation under Biden this time, leading to a closer miss for him.
Value loser.
That didn't come to pass but I suspect if you simply add DKs to Trump's vote share the polls would actually do pretty well at the national level
In terms of the national vote, Biden's lead is sure to grow, and may end up not that far off the 8% forecast.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
Eight More Years was a unique Trumpism.
All from Philly.
This could be over quite quickly.
My belief/speculation is that as with many things, the public, who are less interested in politics than those on here, have eventually caught up with the fact that Boris Johnson is not a leader, that he is an incompetent buffoon, and they have stopped giving him the benefit of the doubt. It is also my opinion that they are now giving a serious look at Labour who they are giving the benefit of the doubt to as they have a smart professional looking leader. Simples! Tories should ditch The Clown asap.
As Owen says, Biden really ought to have cruised to an easy victory just like Jezza did last December.
Imagine how much they would take over the bar tonight – would have been the mother of all Friday night piss-ups nationwide.
The Scranton local paper must be dead happy.