Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
Can we please put this to bed once and for all? The population of the US grows, you know?! There are 100 million more people than 1960 and 290 million more than 1790. The 'raw' numbers argument is UTTERLY fallacious.
By all means go by percentage share of the vote but cut the nonsense about total number please.
And yet people on both sides make the Corbyn argument about record numbers, so apparently people do need reminding.
Its truly remarkable that nobody has met John Major's vote tally yet. Neither Blair nor Johnson even ever got as many as John Major which is truly incredible.
Thankfully while Johnson came very, very close to John Major - Corbyn was nowhere near Kinnock.
Biden is coming in again on the spreads. Not by a lot but still it's the first movement that direction since before Florida. As of now you can buy at 267. Was 262 ten minutes ago.
I mentioned earlier, yourself, Alistair and RCS kept hopes alive at those moments when the future of humanity lay bleeding in the dirt. Thank you.
The fear of another Trump victory, for some of us, really was a dark place.
By the way, there's nothing more irritating than someone being cocky. So, for the record and in the interest of balance, I made several crap tips before election night
On the night I just stayed up, studied the detail, watched the trend (the clue was going on in the suburbs not the latinos), didn't panic, used my head not my heart and got lucky as a result.
But on other occasions I've let my heart govern: Barbara Bollier was a rubbish tip, as was Florida state. I've got away with Ossoff for now.
No one is perfect. We're all fallible. We never get it completely right. We need to listen and learn - always. And applying a fixed perspective, be it to left or right, is little better than a stopped clock telling the correct time twice a day.
Have a good morning everyone. 'Tis the best site around.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Yes, please do stick around MrEd - I presume you have interest in domestic elections too? (haven’t seen you post much on UK matters). Suspect you would have called the EU Referendum correctly.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
Absolutely. This will be the future of Trump, the Republican party and the centre of gravity of US political debate, I think. TV politics and the French thinkers', like Baudrillard's, idea of the "total triumph of the media spectacle".
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
The first week of a lockdown may well increase transmission, as households spend more time in close proximity. It is only after that that the benefits show, so early days for Wales.
Action a few weeks back in England (such as a 2 week half term) might have made more difference, but who knows?
Certainly though the Captain Hindsight line has boomeranged back into BoZos face.
What effect does everyone spending three days consciously meeting as many people as possible before restriction come into place, have on the transmission rates?
Not good, and the "non essential" shops will be ram packed come December as people try to prepare for Christmas. December is going to be mad when the relaxation happens.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So with the GA senate run offs in Jan, the Dems could actaully win the senate as well possibly (allowing for having the deciding vote as have the presidency),have I got that right? If so that would make a huge difference to Bidens presidency. Or is my maths wrong.
Indeed so. This is a challenge for the media. Do they have the integrity to present what is happening here as what it is? - a wannabe fascist who knows he has (clearly and decisively) lost the election attempting to discredit the democratic process in order to rile up his base and protect his brand post-presidency. The media is high on the list of Trump enablers. On countless occasions since 2016 he has said things that were objectively lies or smears, objectively racist, objectively misogynist, said and done things that were objectively contemptuous of democratic norms, and the media have played along, scared to appear biased, hungry for clicks and viewers, amplifying his antics and his message, projecting him 24/7, covering him as merely an "unconventional" politician with a "controversial" agenda who is "not everyone's cup of tea". If a similar phenomenon were occurring in, say, Brazil, which it is, the reporting would not be like this. It would more accurately reflect the truth of the situation. Lies reported as lies. Racism and misogyny reported as racism and misogyny. Fascist sentiment reported as fascist sentiment. This is how Donald Trump should have been covered and should be covered now.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
Supposed to be opening everything up on Monday as Drakeford painted himself into a corner by insisting it would only last 2 weeks
No sign of an improvement in hospital admissions and death rates so far
You wouldn't expect to see either yet. What's concerning is doesn't seem to be much of a drop in daily new cases. If you squint extra hard at the days reported number you might see a decline, but it could be nothing.
Also Wales is now at peak of last crisis in hospitalizations. An indication that Drakeford has acted too late perhaps. Promising to open up on Monday seems premature.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
BoZo is next.
He now has to crawl back to the EU and beg for a deal he doesn't want, in the midst of a crisis he can't control, with few friends in the press or party
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
Can we please put this to bed once and for all? The population of the US grows, you know?! There are 100 million more people than 1960 and 290 million more than 1790. The 'raw' numbers argument is UTTERLY fallacious.
By all means go by percentage share of the vote but cut the nonsense about total number please.
And yet people on both sides make the Corbyn argument about record numbers, so apparently people do need reminding.
Its truly remarkable that nobody has met John Major's vote tally yet. Neither Blair nor Johnson even ever got as many as John Major which is truly incredible.
Thankfully while Johnson came very, very close to John Major - Corbyn was nowhere near Kinnock.
George Washington's share of the popular vote in 1788 - 43,782 Kanye West's share of the popular vote (to date) in 2020 - roughly 60,000
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
I'm not sure they are though. Lindsay Graham's donation of $500K sends a strong signal that the Republican establishment is, for now, standing behind him even if they don't want to say that publicly.
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
The real frustration is if I'd only taken the time to study the Florida result rather than react to the broad sweep...
The clue was in the swing excluding Cuban-Hispanic voters. Even with Florida on the night it was being said that it was Cuban-Hispanic-Americans (mouthful that) that won Florida for Trump.
Not so many Cuban-Hispanic-Americans in Georgia or Pennsylvania.
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
The first week of a lockdown may well increase transmission, as households spend more time in close proximity. It is only after that that the benefits show, so early days for Wales.
Action a few weeks back in England (such as a 2 week half term) might have made more difference, but who knows?
Certainly though the Captain Hindsight line has boomeranged back into BoZos face.
What effect does everyone spending three days consciously meeting as many people as possible before restriction come into place, have on the transmission rates?
Not good, and the "non essential" shops will be ram packed come December as people try to prepare for Christmas. December is going to be mad when the relaxation happens.
I don't support the current lockdown.
People seem more relaxed about it than last time, and more stuff seems to be open. But still.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
There may even be a place for some limited sympathy. One day. But not today.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
Absolutely. This will be the future of Trump, the Republican party and the centre of gravity of US political debate, I think. TV politics and the French thinkers', like Baudrillard's, idea of the "total triumph of the media spectacle".
A centre of gravity, not the.
I'm not sure about that, personally. Trump's public background is in TV, and the 24-hour media spectacle of twitter has also been central to his presidency . He's already shifted the norms of US public life and office to the extent that BIden has already felt compelled to tweet in quite a different and more routine way than Obama, for instance. A very possible replacement for him as a candidate could be a Fox or ex-Fox journalist as well, I think.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
It's quite clear most Betfair punters are watching the big channels and just not focussing on the micro details..
Biden is still available at 1.07.. I bet that lasts about 15-20 minutes.
The prices are now at Jeb Bush/Leadstrom levels of wrongness now and it is making me nervous.
There is a non zero chance it gets overturned in court. That chance isnt evident from the counts, although the further the count is away from a Trump win, and the more states its across, it does get harder and harder.
The real frustration is if I'd only taken the time to study the Florida result rather than react to the broad sweep...
The clue was in the swing excluding Cuban-Hispanic voters. Even with Florida on the night it was being said that it was Cuban-Hispanic-Americans (mouthful that) that won Florida for Trump.
Not so many Cuban-Hispanic-Americans in Georgia or Pennsylvania.
Exactly, I reacted to Florida as a whole rather than what the individual parts of Florida did.
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
0.5%
They'll definitely have to.
Maybe not, if the ECV is conclusive. From memory I seem to recall that Obama could have asked for a recount in Missouri (or maybe Georgia) and might well have won because of local sculduggery but nobody bothered because he'd won by a distance anyway.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
I'm not sure they are though. Lindsay Graham's donation of $500K sends a strong signal that the Republican establishment is, for now, standing behind him even if they don't want to say that publicly.
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
Americans seem to like split tickets in some areas - seems like it may be hard for them to win those run offs?
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
Absolutely. This will be the future of Trump, the Republican party and the centre of gravity of US political debate, I think. TV politics and the French thinkers', like Baudrillard's, idea of the "total triumph of the media spectacle".
A centre of gravity, not the.
I'm not sure about that, personally. Trump's public background is in TV, and the 24-hour media spectacle of twitter has also been central to his presidency . He's shifted the norms of US political debate and office to the extent that BIden has already felt compelled to tweet in quite a different and more routine way than Obama, for instance. A very possible replacement for him as candidate could be a Fox or ex-Fox journalist too, I think.
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
Can we please put this to bed once and for all? The population of the US grows, you know?! There are 100 million more people than 1960 and 290 million more than 1790. The 'raw' numbers argument is UTTERLY fallacious.
By all means go by percentage share of the vote but cut the nonsense about total number please.
And yet people on both sides make the Corbyn argument about record numbers, so apparently people do need reminding.
Its truly remarkable that nobody has met John Major's vote tally yet. Neither Blair nor Johnson even ever got as many as John Major which is truly incredible.
Thankfully while Johnson came very, very close to John Major - Corbyn was nowhere near Kinnock.
George Washington's share of the popular vote in 1788 - 43,782 Kanye West's share of the popular vote (to date) in 2020 - roughly 60,000
These aren't vote shares, they are amounts. Shares implies division and possibly percentage.
According to Nate Cohn (NYT) the military and overseas ballots that were sent out but not returned are 9k ish. We don’t know how many will arrive today. No idea of the mix. Could be good for either.
Maybe not, if the ECV is conclusive. From memory I seem to recall that Obama could have asked for a recount in Missouri (or maybe Georgia) and might well have won because of local sculduggery but nobody bothered because he'd won by a distance anyway.
The difficulty for Trump is apparently recounts are required to be paid for up front, not something he has traditionally been willing to do...
According to Nate Cohn (NYT) the military and overseas ballots that were sent out but not returned are 9k ish. We don’t know how many will arrive today. No idea of the mix. Could be good for either.
It's probably stuck in an Atlanta postal warehouse alongside plenty of Democrat votes.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
This is going to court even if Bidens win is bigger than Trumps in 2016. Pence, Graham, Cruz etc arent quitting before the rulings. How confident is everyone in Kavanaugh et al?
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
Absolutely. This will be the future of Trump, the Republican party and the centre of gravity of US political debate, I think. TV politics and the French thinkers', like Baudrillard's, idea of the "total triumph of the media spectacle".
A centre of gravity, not the.
I'm not sure about that, personally. Trump's public background is in TV, and the 24-hour media spectacle of twitter has also been central to his presidency . He's shifted the norms of US political debate and office to the extent that BIden has already felt compelled to tweet in quite a different and more routine way than Obama, for instance. A very possible replacement for him as candidate could be a Fox or ex-Fox journalist too, I think.
Alex Jones for President!
What once seemed impossible, now seems possible :.)
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
Not the best example considering that tortoise was an awful cheater, unless that was the point.
How did the tortoise cheat?
The hare took victory for granted and fell asleep, the tortoise just continued until he won.
In some versions of the story the tortoise has his mates ar various points around the race doing sections of it in his place.
I've never heard that version, the version I know is that the hare took victory for granted so stopped trying so the moral of the story is not to do that.
Which probably to be fair is not the best analogy for this election - Trump gave this his all, just his all was not good enough.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
This is going to court even if Bidens win is bigger than Trumps in 2016. Pence, Graham, Cruz etc arent quitting before the rulings. How confident is everyone in Kavanaugh et al?
If AZ and NV hold and Biden also ends up with PA and GA, surely they'll give up the ghost?
Edit/ Fox is discussing this now. Their expert starting with the obvious point that to go to court you need grounds for a claim, and some evidence. Adding that most of the issues raised so far are likely to be about relatively small numbers of votes anyway.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
This is going to court even if Bidens win is bigger than Trumps in 2016. Pence, Graham, Cruz etc arent quitting before the rulings. How confident is everyone in Kavanaugh et al?
If it hangs on multiple calls in multiple races, pretty confident. It looks too obvious then.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
I'm not sure they are though. Lindsay Graham's donation of $500K sends a strong signal that the Republican establishment is, for now, standing behind him even if they don't want to say that publicly.
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
Americans are not like Europeans in enjoying the game and appreciating form. They like winners and they have little sympathy for losers. That was told to me by a well known sports person I was working with and surprising though it sounds I think it's right
I think I may have mentioned before that I spent almost 6 weeks in a secure psychiatric facility in the mid noughties during the depths of my PTSD experience. That tweet exemplifies the communications style of the people I met in there.
Ah, I didn't actually know that.
Very sorry to hear that, and I hope you're feeling better now.
Thanks CR. It's all part of the journey... I became an itinerant English teacher in Eastern Europe after that, met the future Mrs DA in SPb and the only way was up from there.
Good to hear. PTSD is over used as a diagnosis in civvy St. The full monty in vets is something that I have encountered a few times, including Polish and British airmen affected 60 years after the war.
Combat Stress is one charity that I support as a result.
Maybe not, if the ECV is conclusive. From memory I seem to recall that Obama could have asked for a recount in Missouri (or maybe Georgia) and might well have won because of local sculduggery but nobody bothered because he'd won by a distance anyway.
The difficulty for Trump is apparently recounts are required to be paid for up front, not something he has traditionally been willing to do...
He can crowdfund and be certain of getting his money back.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
This is going to court even if Bidens win is bigger than Trumps in 2016. Pence, Graham, Cruz etc arent quitting before the rulings. How confident is everyone in Kavanaugh et al?
If AZ and NV hold and Biden also ends up with PA and GA, surely they'll give up the ghost?
This is Trump we’re talking about. He’ll be contesting this everywhere up until actual final certification of the votes which usually comes, I believe, a couple of weeks after Election Day (in fact I wouldn’t put it past him to try beyond that).
It will do a fat lot of good. The media will announce Biden the winner, he will get on with starting the transition, and it will quietly start going on behind Trumps back while he rants and raves.
Not the best example considering that tortoise was an awful cheater, unless that was the point.
How did the tortoise cheat?
The hare took victory for granted and fell asleep, the tortoise just continued until he won.
In some versions of the story the tortoise has his mates ar various points around the race doing sections of it in his place.
I've never heard that version, the version I know is that the hare took victory for granted so stopped trying so the moral of the story is not to do that.
Which probably to be fair is not the best analogy for this election - Trump gave this his all, just his all was not good enough.
It depends on what moral is being gone for, about perseverance vs cockiness, or cleverness.
Maybe not, if the ECV is conclusive. From memory I seem to recall that Obama could have asked for a recount in Missouri (or maybe Georgia) and might well have won because of local sculduggery but nobody bothered because he'd won by a distance anyway.
The difficulty for Trump is apparently recounts are required to be paid for up front, not something he has traditionally been willing to do...
He can crowdfund and be certain of getting his money back.
Also worth noting that recounts can't actually be called until the counting is completely finished - which for most states could be some time away
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
Not at all. I believe military ballots favoured Clinton in 2016 after all.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
This is going to court even if Bidens win is bigger than Trumps in 2016. Pence, Graham, Cruz etc arent quitting before the rulings. How confident is everyone in Kavanaugh et al?
If AZ and NV hold and Biden also ends up with PA and GA, surely they'll give up the ghost?
Why? Trump is a narcissist who has been in court all his life. He has a non zero chance of the SC ruling his way however frivolous, which would make him President. If he loses in court it re-enforces his view it was cheated from him.
Alternatively he is facing a potential battle to avoid jail. His surrogates know Trump can and will destroy their careers with one tweet, they are tied in to him.
McConnell is the interesting one, who would likely have power regardless but doubt him alone changes much.
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
I suspect the overseas/military ballots will be small in number. I’d also think the majority of US Military ballots would be in early (and therefore counted) since their forces organise big voting days on their bases well in advance. Provisionals (and there don’t look to be that many) might be more R leaning due to on the day stuff, but Abrams has been going in hard on Get Out The Ballot Cure so that may end up favouring dems. That’s quite marginal stuff though. Biden is looking at 3-4k once Fulton and Gwinnett report which should be enough to survive most of the shit the GOP will throw. Especially given how lamesauce their challenges have been.
Comments
Thankfully while Johnson came very, very close to John Major - Corbyn was nowhere near Kinnock.
The fear of another Trump victory, for some of us, really was a dark place.
On the night I just stayed up, studied the detail, watched the trend (the clue was going on in the suburbs not the latinos), didn't panic, used my head not my heart and got lucky as a result.
But on other occasions I've let my heart govern: Barbara Bollier was a rubbish tip, as was Florida state. I've got away with Ossoff for now.
No one is perfect. We're all fallible. We never get it completely right. We need to listen and learn - always. And applying a fixed perspective, be it to left or right, is little better than a stopped clock telling the correct time twice a day.
Have a good morning everyone. 'Tis the best site around.
I'd welcome him gone, but the mps need to get used to being behind and not panic so much.
Have to feel for whoever laid Biden at those odds at that time. Oopsy.
‘I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious”
You mean like, in a Pit. With a Pendulum? 🤭
I don't support the current lockdown.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here
So thank you everyone
Biden is still available at 1.07.. I bet that lasts about 15-20 minutes.
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
If you squint extra hard at the days reported number you might see a decline, but it could be nothing.
Also Wales is now at peak of last crisis in hospitalizations. An indication that Drakeford has acted too late perhaps.
Promising to open up on Monday seems premature.
They'll definitely have to.
He now has to crawl back to the EU and beg for a deal he doesn't want, in the midst of a crisis he can't control, with few friends in the press or party
Kanye West's share of the popular vote (to date) in 2020 - roughly 60,000
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
Not so many Cuban-Hispanic-Americans in Georgia or Pennsylvania.
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/general/arizona
The hare took victory for granted and fell asleep, the tortoise just continued until he won.
Well done to all those sitting on winners, sounds like another good betting event collectively for PB.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
https://twitter.com/LeGrove/status/1324347994720919554
Tories down to 35%! Labour steady at 40
Goodbye Boris!
Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
Which probably to be fair is not the best analogy for this election - Trump gave this his all, just his all was not good enough.
Edit/ Fox is discussing this now. Their expert starting with the obvious point that to go to court you need grounds for a claim, and some evidence. Adding that most of the issues raised so far are likely to be about relatively small numbers of votes anyway.
Combat Stress is one charity that I support as a result.
It will do a fat lot of good. The media will announce Biden the winner, he will get on with starting the transition, and it will quietly start going on behind Trumps back while he rants and raves.
Alternatively he is facing a potential battle to avoid jail. His surrogates know Trump can and will destroy their careers with one tweet, they are tied in to him.
McConnell is the interesting one, who would likely have power regardless but doubt him alone changes much.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
Damn, I'm accurate.
It could have gone wrong for Biden.
EDIT: that's a hindsight "last week" view; it's over 99.9% sure Biden wins now.