Betting post: I tipped this earlier (at 7:48) but I`ll mention again. There is money available at 1.33 on BF`s "Electoral College Vote H'cap - 48.5" market.
Biden in heading for 306 v 232 if he wins all four close states (Arizona, Georgia, Penn and Nevada). Margin 74.
If he loses Arizona the margin will be 52.
So either way -48.5 will be settle as a Biden win. Take the 1.33.
It's 1.4 now!
Jeez - i`ll have to go back in.
Alistair - this is a steal, right? Am I missing something?
Aren't they low-education? Sorry, maybe you're right, I haven't looked it up. I figured most of the numbers were people who graduated High School then went straight into a job (the military) which for most values of $job is a very Trumpish demographic, but maybe I'm out-of-date.
The US military is very high tech with a lot of well educated specialists. It's also, like the British forces, phenomenally effective at deprogramming racists.
I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).
I have every confidence that the GOP will find someone just as toxic, if a little less moronic.
Might be tricky.
The art with that sort of demagoguery is to say outrageous things with just the right balance of blokeish twinkle and menace. Some sort of sugar to make the poison go down. Pence saying Trump's lines wouldn't work.
For example, UKIP never found a satisfactory Farage replacement.
Yes, also Trump didn't *only* win with the demagoguery. He also spent years playing a highly successful businessman on TV. He definitely has a lot of supporters who rate him there and merely *tolerate* the bigotry.
One of the only possibilities to fill this role is some of the Fox and ex-Fox journalists who've been talked about, I think, in somewhat of a parallel way to Johnson's background in journalism.
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
I think he takes it. There are a few thousand votes left (not sure how many) and the gap is in the triple figures now. I suspect he’ll do it by 1000 or so, maybe even more.
Thank goodness Biden is going to win PA - I would have been VERY nervous if the election had come to down to GA given the past behaviour of the GOP there.
I think Biden wins too just but as I understand it theres still the military ones to come in so if its just a few hundred lead for Biden it could change things, not sure how many M ones there are though, few thousand at least I think?
I’m not sure they would make a huge difference: I think they broke for Clinton last time and after some of Trump’s remarks I’m not sure he will do any better this time.
It's hard to call, Trump says offensive shit about war heroes etc, OTOH he hasn't sent them off to any new wars, and this time he seems to be doing better than before with both low-education white people and black people.
But the US forces aren’t low education, they also don’t like their officers dragged of their ship for trying to protect the crew from covid.
Aren't they low-education? Sorry, maybe you're right, I haven't looked it up. I figured most of the numbers were people who graduated High School then went straight into a job (the military) which for most values of $job is a very Trumpish demographic, but maybe I'm out-of-date.
A lot of people join the military in order to get a college degree, I think. Projecting the political leanings of the British army, say, onto the US military would be a mistake. I met some very progressive ex military people in the US. It also has a reputation for not discriminating against minorities so is quite diverse.
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
I think he takes it. There are a few thousand votes left (not sure how many) and the gap is in the triple figures now. I suspect he’ll do it by 1000 or so, maybe even more.
Thank goodness Biden is going to win PA - I would have been VERY nervous if the election had come to down to GA given the past behaviour of the GOP there.
I think Biden wins too just but as I understand it theres still the military ones to come in so if its just a few hundred lead for Biden it could change things, not sure how many M ones there are though, few thousand at least I think?
I’m not sure they would make a huge difference: I think they broke for Clinton last time and after some of Trump’s remarks I’m not sure he will do any better this time.
It's hard to call, Trump says offensive shit about war heroes etc, OTOH he hasn't sent them off to any new wars, and this time he seems to be doing better than before with both low-education white people and black people.
But the US forces aren’t low education, they also don’t like their officers dragged of their ship for trying to protect the crew from covid.
Aren't they low-education? Sorry, maybe you're right, I haven't looked it up. I figured most of the numbers were people who graduated High School then went straight into a job (the military) which for most values of $job is a very Trumpish demographic, but maybe I'm out-of-date.
Apart from the obvious patriotic motivations, US military vets get major post discharge benefits on housing, health and Education. The latter includes free College tuition in your home state.
I assume Trump is refusing to go quietly and has turned the once great USA into a banana republic
He is an utter disgrace and hopefully he will be removed soon, but the number of votes he has accumulated is astonishing and the cult of Trump looks like it will fester in USA politics for years to come sadly
I am not convinced by Biden but like Boris last year anyone will do to see off Trump as was the case with Corbyn
I do find it disturbing though that Sky and Burley have been broadcasting the US election for nearly 10 days and almost exclusively virtually ignoring the UK, but fair play to the BBC they have been much more sensible in their coverage of the US and UK domestic issues, of which there are so many
But you don’t like ‘our Kay’ in fact anything you say is colored by your view of her. She is annoying but they are covering something that will out live covid and is far more interesting. Trying to follow what the UK government is doing is close to impossible because five minutes latter it changes.
Surely, "annoying" is the one thing a rolling news broadcaster should not have on their CV?
Betting post: I tipped this earlier (at 7:48) but I`ll mention again. There is money available at 1.33 on BF`s "Electoral College Vote H'cap - 48.5" market.
Biden in heading for 306 v 232 if he wins all four close states (Arizona, Georgia, Penn and Nevada). Margin 74.
If he loses Arizona the margin will be 52.
So either way -48.5 will be settle as a Biden win. Take the 1.33.
Betting post: I tipped this earlier (at 7:48) but I`ll mention again. There is money available at 1.33 on BF`s "Electoral College Vote H'cap - 48.5" market.
Biden in heading for 306 v 232 if he wins all four close states (Arizona, Georgia, Penn and Nevada). Margin 74.
If he loses Arizona the margin will be 52.
So either way -48.5 will be settle as a Biden win. Take the 1.33.
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
The school meals provision had already been made. Councils spent it then held out the begging bowls - in tones of great outrage.
What has been crap is that a) it wasn't spotted in advance that this is what would happen and b) that the councils did this has not been forcefully pointed out by the Government. Shit politics from Government both ways round.
Betting post: I tipped this earlier (at 7:48) but I`ll mention again. There is money available at 1.33 on BF`s "Electoral College Vote H'cap - 48.5" market.
Biden in heading for 306 v 232 if he wins all four close states (Arizona, Georgia, Penn and Nevada). Margin 74.
If he loses Arizona the margin will be 52.
So either way -48.5 will be settle as a Biden win. Take the 1.33.
It's 1.4 now!
1.22 with next to no money left
Sorry, I nipped in and took the 1.4
Not all of it.
If you're feeling confident, Biden 300-329 available at 1.54
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
The school meals provision had already been made. Councils spent it then held out the begging bowls - in tones of great outrage.
What has been crap is that a) it wasn't spotted in advance that this is what would happen and b) that the councils did this has not been forcefully pointed out by the Government. Shit politics from Government both ways round.
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
I think he takes it. There are a few thousand votes left (not sure how many) and the gap is in the triple figures now. I suspect he’ll do it by 1000 or so, maybe even more.
Thank goodness Biden is going to win PA - I would have been VERY nervous if the election had come to down to GA given the past behaviour of the GOP there.
I think Biden wins too just but as I understand it theres still the military ones to come in so if its just a few hundred lead for Biden it could change things, not sure how many M ones there are though, few thousand at least I think?
I’m not sure they would make a huge difference: I think they broke for Clinton last time and after some of Trump’s remarks I’m not sure he will do any better this time.
It's hard to call, Trump says offensive shit about war heroes etc, OTOH he hasn't sent them off to any new wars, and this time he seems to be doing better than before with both low-education white people and black people.
But the US forces aren’t low education, they also don’t like their officers dragged of their ship for trying to protect the crew from covid.
Aren't they low-education? Sorry, maybe you're right, I haven't looked it up. I figured most of the numbers were people who graduated High School then went straight into a job (the military) which for most values of $job is a very Trumpish demographic, but maybe I'm out-of-date.
A lot of people join the military in order to get a college degree, I think. Projecting the political leanings of the British army, say, onto the US military would be a mistake. I met some very progressive ex military people in the US. It also has a reputation for not discriminating against minorities so is quite diverse.
"Not discriminating against minorities" is putting it mildly. The Affirmative Action program in Vietnam was so successful that privileged whiteys like Trump and Bush couldn't get a look in.
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
I think they've been quite restrained actually
I think they're openly biased against people trying to say that votes shouldn't be counted, or that people in a humvee should be trying to break into counting centres.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
I was very confident that Trump would lose well before the virus hit. But on reflection I was wrong. I think he would have won but for Covid.
The clincher in this election was not so much people changing minds, it was much more to do with turnout. And the provisions which permitted postal voting en masse is what did for him in the end.
And sadly the lesson the GOP will draw is that they need to double down on voter suppression next time round
Yes. The logically inconsistent double will be to restrict mail-in ballots (because they slow down the count), and cut back on in-person polling stations (in Democrat areas) because on the day turnout was so low in 2020.
This is one of many reasons why the Democrats needed a crushing victory, all the way down the ballot, to turn this around.
Well they didn't get it and I can't help feeling that that pack the Court nonsense did not help them in the Senate races.
It would be interesting to see some polling next year on what were the most salient reasons for people voting the way they did. Watching from afar, it looked like there were a huge number of gaffes from both candidates and their parties during the campaign.
Maybe a President from one party and the Senate majority with the other is the starting point for a more consensual politics in the next few years.
Ah yes, the consensus politics of the Later Obama years where the Senate, as is its duty, reviewed Judicial nominations without fear or......
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
The school meals provision had already been made. Councils spent it then held out the begging bowls - in tones of great outrage.
What has been crap is that a) it wasn't spotted in advance that this is what would happen and b) that the councils did this has not been forcefully pointed out by the Government. Shit politics from Government both ways round.
I share your scepticism on the issue, but the optics are awful while money is being hosed everywhere else.
There is a legitimate issue to be addressed in the level of normal benefits and targeting of these too.
Betting post: I tipped this earlier (at 7:48) but I`ll mention again. There is money available at 1.33 on BF`s "Electoral College Vote H'cap - 48.5" market.
Biden in heading for 306 v 232 if he wins all four close states (Arizona, Georgia, Penn and Nevada). Margin 74.
If he loses Arizona the margin will be 52.
So either way -48.5 will be settle as a Biden win. Take the 1.33.
It's 1.4 now!
1.22 with next to no money left
Sorry, I nipped in and took the 1.4
Not all of it.
If you're feeling confident, Biden 300-329 available at 1.54
Similarly the -63.5 Handicap band is worth keeping an eye on
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
I think he takes it. There are a few thousand votes left (not sure how many) and the gap is in the triple figures now. I suspect he’ll do it by 1000 or so, maybe even more.
Thank goodness Biden is going to win PA - I would have been VERY nervous if the election had come to down to GA given the past behaviour of the GOP there.
I think Biden wins too just but as I understand it theres still the military ones to come in so if its just a few hundred lead for Biden it could change things, not sure how many M ones there are though, few thousand at least I think?
I’m not sure they would make a huge difference: I think they broke for Clinton last time and after some of Trump’s remarks I’m not sure he will do any better this time.
It's hard to call, Trump says offensive shit about war heroes etc, OTOH he hasn't sent them off to any new wars, and this time he seems to be doing better than before with both low-education white people and black people.
But the US forces aren’t low education, they also don’t like their officers dragged of their ship for trying to protect the crew from covid.
Aren't they low-education? Sorry, maybe you're right, I haven't looked it up. I figured most of the numbers were people who graduated High School then went straight into a job (the military) which for most values of $job is a very Trumpish demographic, but maybe I'm out-of-date.
A lot of people join the military in order to get a college degree, I think. Projecting the political leanings of the British army, say, onto the US military would be a mistake. I met some very progressive ex military people in the US. It also has a reputation for not discriminating against minorities so is quite diverse.
"Not discriminating against minorities" is putting it mildly. The Affirmative Action program in Vietnam was so successful that privileged whiteys like Trump and Bush couldn't get a look in.
Or Biden...
But that was a half century ago, and things have changed.
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
I think he takes it. There are a few thousand votes left (not sure how many) and the gap is in the triple figures now. I suspect he’ll do it by 1000 or so, maybe even more.
Thank goodness Biden is going to win PA - I would have been VERY nervous if the election had come to down to GA given the past behaviour of the GOP there.
I think Biden wins too just but as I understand it theres still the military ones to come in so if its just a few hundred lead for Biden it could change things, not sure how many M ones there are though, few thousand at least I think?
I’m not sure they would make a huge difference: I think they broke for Clinton last time and after some of Trump’s remarks I’m not sure he will do any better this time.
It's hard to call, Trump says offensive shit about war heroes etc, OTOH he hasn't sent them off to any new wars, and this time he seems to be doing better than before with both low-education white people and black people.
But the US forces aren’t low education, they also don’t like their officers dragged of their ship for trying to protect the crew from covid.
Aren't they low-education? Sorry, maybe you're right, I haven't looked it up. I figured most of the numbers were people who graduated High School then went straight into a job (the military) which for most values of $job is a very Trumpish demographic, but maybe I'm out-of-date.
A lot of people join the military in order to get a college degree, I think. Projecting the political leanings of the British army, say, onto the US military would be a mistake. I met some very progressive ex military people in the US. It also has a reputation for not discriminating against minorities so is quite diverse.
"Not discriminating against minorities" is putting it mildly. The Affirmative Action program in Vietnam was so successful that privileged whiteys like Trump and Bush couldn't get a look in.
I meant more in terms of promotions etc but I certainly take your point.
It's hilarious to think that a couple of weeks ago the GOP establishment thought that an intervention by Romney and some jokes from Rubio would stop all of this.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
Supposed to be opening everything up on Monday as Drakeford painted himself into a corner by insisting it would only last 2 weeks
No sign of an improvement in hospital admissions and death rates so far
I think I may have mentioned before that I spent almost 6 weeks in a secure psychiatric facility in the mid noughties during the depths of my PTSD experience. That tweet exemplifies the communications style of the people I met in there.
Ah, I didn't actually know that.
Very sorry to hear that, and I hope you're feeling better now.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Has anybody been onto one of those Trump-supporting social media sites to see how it's being taken. I'm thinking of the Twitter feeds where they were laughing about the state Biden supporters would be in now.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).
What a lot of ramping. Sounds like you got out of bed with a very sore loser head.
It's not often that an incumbent is defeated (only thrice before in American history) and, for all his faults, Trump's record on the economy was impressive, at least on paper. The economy was a significant factor. He really ramped up the 401(k) issue which is crucial for many Americans: some 50% own stocks and shares (31% have 401(k)) and as he has bigged-up his Wall St credentials, it was a significant factor.
Yeah I'm one of those sore losers who bet on Biden and very much wanted him to win. Admittedly, I do have a vested interest in the planet not being completely ruined and Biden is the only candidate who might do something about it, which I am a little sore about.
Not that it really matters but you are completely, embarrassingly wrong about the number of defeated incumbents; 12 incumbent presidents failed to be reelected (Adams, Quincy Adams, Van Buren, Pierce, Johnson, Cleveland, Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter, and H. W. Bush).
The main issue as I see it is that the Democrats had an open goal against a terrible President, and they still failed to pull off a decisive victory. I am terrified of what will happen when the Trumpish tendency in American politics rallies behind a vaguely competent candidate.
Since the start of the 20th Century the only incumbent Presidents who failed to be re-elected, when their party only gained the Oval Office at the previous election is as follows:
Carter Trump
That is it.
(For the record 11 times the party that first won the Oval Office at the previous election managed to hold onto it)
Yep Ford doesn't count as he wasn't elected in the first place
Ford doesn't count as his party had won two terms already so he was seeking a third term for his party not a second. Same reason HW Bush doesn't count, he was seeking a fourth term for his party not a second.
You are using the HYUFD argument. The talk in this thread is about presidents not parties.
No the reply I was replying to then was replying to this and party was explicitly mentioned:
Since the start of the 20th Century the only incumbent Presidents who failed to be re-elected, when their party only gained the Oval Office at the previous election is as follows:
Carter Trump
That is it.
(For the record 11 times the party that first won the Oval Office at the previous election managed to hold onto it)
Please. You can read as well as I can. The original statement from MysticRose was "It's not often that an incumbent is defeated (only thrice before in American history) and, for all his faults, Trump's record on the economy was impressive, at least on paper. "
It says incumbent, not incumbent party.
Mysticrose was wrong, but I made my own point and specifically named party. So Rose was wrong but what I said was right. 🙄
Plus my original comment was never in reply to Rose, it was in reply to Bournville so I've got no idea why you're throwing someone else being wrong into the mix to discount what I wrote in reply to someone else that Rose wasn't even involved in originally. 🙄
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
I think they've been quite restrained actually
I think they're openly biased against people trying to say that votes shouldn't be counted, or that people in a humvee should be trying to break into counting centres.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
I was very confident that Trump would lose well before the virus hit. But on reflection I was wrong. I think he would have won but for Covid.
The clincher in this election was not so much people changing minds, it was much more to do with turnout. And the provisions which permitted postal voting en masse is what did for him in the end.
And sadly the lesson the GOP will draw is that they need to double down on voter suppression next time round
Suppression doesn't work long-term, it means that the pressure is there for the dam to break (as it has this year) when it vents and finds a way out. I think with turnout so high this time its going to be even harder to suppress votes next time. Once people get in the habit of voting its harder to stop them doing so again, its easier to keep people disinterested who never bothered in the past.
I agree at some point the dam bursts and its all over as the voters remember who was boxing them in. It would be difficult to recover after that.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
We've mentioned this before but Trump is not really a populist. He was elected on a populist platform but governed on mainstream GOP lines. The tax cuts went to bosses, not to the shop floor, for instance. Trump's behaviour in this campaign has been near suicidal.
Has anybody been onto one of those Trump-supporting social media sites to see how it's being taken. I'm thinking of the Twitter feeds where they were laughing about the state Biden supporters would be in now.
How are they taking it?
If Fox is any guide, they will be sharing stories and rumours of all manner of fraud
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
The first week of a lockdown may well increase transmission, as households spend more time in close proximity. It is only after that that the benefits show, so early days for Wales.
Action a few weeks back in England (such as a 2 week half term) might have made more difference, but who knows?
Certainly though the Captain Hindsight line has boomeranged back into BoZos face.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
I'm very surprised that Trump is still at 12-12.5 on Betfair Exchange.
Cool analytical minds are keeping it there.
I'm curious about the reasoning that would keep it there. Which three states of the four states still in play do they think Trump can win? Or succeed in winning through legal action?
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Will all the presenters be expected to wear orange jump suits to match Trump's?
He really thinks that because he's appointed a conservative majority on the Supreme Court they will return the favour by overturning the result of the presidential election, doesn't he?
Theyd do a lot for him, on tight calls, but not that. He doesn't seem to realise he was doing the partys work picking justices, not picking cronies.
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
The first week of a lockdown may well increase transmission, as households spend more time in close proximity. It is only after that that the benefits show, so early days for Wales.
Action a few weeks back in England (such as a 2 week half term) might have made more difference, but who knows?
Certainly though the Captain Hindsight line has boomeranged back into BoZos face.
What effect does everyone spending three days consciously meeting as many people as possible before restriction come into place, have on the transmission rates?
Has anybody been onto one of those Trump-supporting social media sites to see how it's being taken. I'm thinking of the Twitter feeds where they were laughing about the state Biden supporters would be in now.
How are they taking it?
Surely we just need to check in with regular posters contrarian and coach?
Has anybody been onto one of those Trump-supporting social media sites to see how it's being taken. I'm thinking of the Twitter feeds where they were laughing about the state Biden supporters would be in now.
How are they taking it?
If Fox is any guide, they will be sharing stories and rumours of all manner of fraud
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
To be fair to @HYUFD and @MrEd they were both righter than me about this election*, so well done to them, even if they did get a bit carried away on Trump's chances.
I think I may have mentioned before that I spent almost 6 weeks in a secure psychiatric facility in the mid noughties during the depths of my PTSD experience. That tweet exemplifies the communications style of the people I met in there.
Ah, I didn't actually know that.
Very sorry to hear that, and I hope you're feeling better now.
Thanks CR. It's all part of the journey... I became an itinerant English teacher in Eastern Europe after that, met the future Mrs DA in SPb and the only way was up from there.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
Can I thank once again whoever it was who tipped backing Biden at 5.0 in the middle of the panic on Tuesday.
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
To be fair, anyone should be openly biased against Trump at this point.
Impartiality is important, but so that there is a level playing field for giving an airing to opposing points of view grounded in evidence. Trump’s performance at the conference last night were the ravings of a madman. He is no longer on this planet and is doing tremendous damage to American democracy as a result. In my view, it is wholly appropriate and indeed incumbent on news media to call this out for what it is - the anti-democratic ramblings of a lunatic wannabe dictator.
Yes, to put it another way, let's imagine the vote situation had been reversed and Biden had shown up and said exactly the same thing Trump had said. If the media had seen that and reported "In tight race, Biden raises concerns about election process" then that would be bias. But they wouldn't have, they'd have reported "Ailing, Defeated Biden has completely lost his mind".
To imagine that scenario requires the imaginary Biden to have set the scene with similar wild behaviour as Trump in other things. So it's a pointless scenario as it's so divorced from the people we know.
I don't think such talk is necessary even from partisan media, they can leave it to guests and pundits, but since such talk requires wider context of what the president is like you cannot simply guess the reaction if one variable changed.
Has anybody been onto one of those Trump-supporting social media sites to see how it's being taken. I'm thinking of the Twitter feeds where they were laughing about the state Biden supporters would be in now.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
Can we please put this to bed once and for all? The population of the US grows, you know?! There are 100 million more people than 1960 and 290 million more than 1790. The 'raw' numbers argument is UTTERLY fallacious.
By all means go by percentage share of the vote but cut the nonsense about total number please.
Nick Robinson just said 'One thing we can be sure of Boris Johnson won't be the first leader to be invited to the White House'
Wont we all love watching Angie and Manny holding their first press conference with President Joe....
Traditionally it is the Canadian PM who gets invited first, for a "neighbourly chat"
Trump's first foreign visit was Saudi Arabia. May did get the first White House visit but she had to pimp out the Queen and offer a State Visit to Trump to get it.
Biden's first call will be Canada.
His first overseas trip and WH visitor would be an interesting betting market. I reckon Mexico could be the first trip and Macron will be first into the WH. Johnson will get ghosted.
Biden is coming in again on the spreads. Not by a lot but still it's the first movement that direction since before Florida. As of now you can buy at 267. Was 262 ten minutes ago.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
The idiotic decision not to back free school meals on top of everything else was a poll tax moment that is now showing in the polls
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Also the latest lockdown, Starmer is now Captain Foresight.
I am not convinced on Starmer 's 2 week lockdown demand but refusing to feed hungry children is quite an extraordinary error
2 week lockdowns are completely pointless, doing a lot of economic damage but having little impact on the spread of the virus. Has Wales worked out what its going to do next yet?
Supposed to be opening everything up on Monday as Drakeford painted himself into a corner by insisting it would only last 2 weeks
No sign of an improvement in hospital admissions and death rates so far
And by the way - thank you very much for your decency yesterday in response to a post by someone else on a comment of mine.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
Absolutely. This will be the future of Trump, the Republican party and the centre of gravity of US political debate, I think. TV politics and the French thinkers', like Baudrillard's, idea of the "total triumph of the media spectacle".
Comments
Alistair - this is a steal, right? Am I missing something?
Macnamara's morons are history.
Time for the backbenchers to wake up and send in their letters
Difficult to get beyond that.
Words that speak for all of us.
If only we had STV...
What has been crap is that a) it wasn't spotted in advance that this is what would happen and b) that the councils did this has not been forcefully pointed out by the Government. Shit politics from Government both ways round.
If you're feeling confident, Biden 300-329 available at 1.54
Wont we all love watching Angie and Manny holding their first press conference with President Joe....
Lol, couldn't finish that.
There is a legitimate issue to be addressed in the level of normal benefits and targeting of these too.
But that was a half century ago, and things have changed.
williamglenn Posts: 34,805
March 2016
RodCrosby said:
er kommt!
er kommt!
It's hilarious to think that a couple of weeks ago the GOP establishment thought that an intervention by Romney and some jokes from Rubio would stop all of this.
Great frame.
I am not a Starmer fan, but he is certainly a step up from the previous.
No sign of an improvement in hospital admissions and death rates so far
Very sorry to hear that, and I hope you're feeling better now.
Has anybody been onto one of those Trump-supporting social media sites to see how it's being taken. I'm thinking of the Twitter feeds where they were laughing about the state Biden supporters would be in now.
How are they taking it?
Imagine your satisfaction in knowing your vote could have helped remove Andrew Bridgen, as the blue wall collapses.
Plus my original comment was never in reply to Rose, it was in reply to Bournville so I've got no idea why you're throwing someone else being wrong into the mix to discount what I wrote in reply to someone else that Rose wasn't even involved in originally. 🙄
Action a few weeks back in England (such as a 2 week half term) might have made more difference, but who knows?
Certainly though the Captain Hindsight line has boomeranged back into BoZos face.
Edit. Oops, just realised you were joking.
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324643210283593728
(*Not that that's a high bar.)
It happened!
I don't think such talk is necessary even from partisan media, they can leave it to guests and pundits, but since such talk requires wider context of what the president is like you cannot simply guess the reaction if one variable changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Biden's first call will be Canada.
His first overseas trip and WH visitor would be an interesting betting market. I reckon Mexico could be the first trip and Macron will be first into the WH. Johnson will get ghosted.
2.30 am:
This was the sign. 3.30 am:
Mr Ed dashed my hopes on several occasions.
Arose from a GA county recording a batch with 1602 v 222