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Where the race stands (0510 GMT) – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited November 2020 in General
imageWhere the race stands (0510 GMT) – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    1st again
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The 'disaster' in Florida contained the signs of why Biden was going to win the Presidency. He lost the battle and won the war. John King called it right on CNN: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too. It's also why at the darkest hour I bought Biden at 262 EVS.

    In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Another Arizona batch sees Biden up again:

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324585201654210560?s=20

  • The 'disaster' in Florida contained the signs of why Biden was going to win the Presidency. He lost the battle and won the war. John King called it right on CNN: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too. It's also why at the darkest hour I bought Biden at 262 EVS.

    In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.

    Before I went to bed last night (yes I actually managed to sleep) I was thinking it was else to ignore the cries of go all in for Texas. All that would have done is repeat 2016 mistakes.

    I think this election has shown the democrats need to learn how to wisely spend money though, the senate races were not great. Still 2 runoffs in Georgia could go the Dems way.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That put an end to his confident, carfree childhood.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Per Nate Silver:

    GA Presidential Election Results

    Trump (R): 49.4% (2,448,056 votes)
    Biden (D): 49.37% (2,446,577 votes)

    Trump Margin: +1,479 (-318)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That put an end to his confident, carfree childhood.
    Apparently he was very driven as a child. Driven everywhere.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    I see that approx 25 votes were counted while I was sleeping.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

  • The 'disaster' in Florida contained the signs of why Biden was going to win the Presidency. He lost the battle and won the war. John King called it right on CNN: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too. It's also why at the darkest hour I bought Biden at 262 EVS.

    In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.

    Likewise their decision not to run Bloomberg, who decided to dump his money on Florida, Texas and Ohio.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Scott_xP said:


    Celebrating their immunity from electoral defeat, presumably.
  • I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    PA +22k
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited November 2020
    16th, which may be marginally more than the number of MPs Sir Kendrick needs to suspend during spring cleaning...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Denial :wink::smiley:

    I can only assume some punters, especially over here, don't study the detail?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).

    The most likely reason that is true will be the lasting overhang in legacy from the virus.

    Both parties have the challenge of finding more effective candidates.

    For the Reps - as one of them acknowledged on Fox - Trump has motivated the rural base like no other previous Rep, and these level of turnouts are unlikely to repeat. A new candidate has this handicap to overcome with new votes from elsewhere.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020

    I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).

    What a lot of ramping. Sounds like you got out of bed with a very sore loser head.

    It's not often that an incumbent is defeated (only thrice before in American history) and, for all his faults, Trump's record on the economy was impressive, at least on paper. The economy was a significant factor. He really ramped up the 401(k) issue which is crucial for many Americans: some 50% own stocks and shares (31% have 401(k)) and as he has bigged-up his Wall St credentials, it was a significant factor.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    There’s a lag effect because of outstanding money on the table, which hasn’t been taken up in the middle of the night. A lot of punters are probably already exposed to the limit of what they are comfortable; how much of the free money have you taken up?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I've just read your email hat zero mail ballots have been counted in Alaska.

    Could the dream be alive?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    https://twitter.com/Grochowa2/status/1324598521039790080?s=20

    PA crossover should come by around 9am GMT, or perhaps a little before.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    All the commentary in today’s UK newspapers on Trump is written prior to his Basil Fawlty breakdown in the small hours, and already feels overtaken by events.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Alistair said:

    I've just read your email hat zero mail ballots have been counted in Alaska.

    Could the dream be alive?

    I've been wondering about Alaska. By no means a GOP shoo-in.

    If the Dems flipped the Senate there it would liven things up some more :wink:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/DrAlGrossAK/status/1324520484885667845?s=19

    Would need a Pennsylvania level of split but given we have no idea what the split it I am calling Alaska as a live race.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    NYT shows Trump's lead in Pennsylvania down to 18,229.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    PA +18k
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    There’s a lag effect because of outstanding money on the table, which hasn’t been taken up in the middle of the night. A lot of punters are probably already exposed to the limit of what they are comfortable; how much of the free money have you taken up?
    I don't bet any more. I'm only here for the information.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    The 'disaster' in Florida contained the signs of why Biden was going to win the Presidency. He lost the battle and won the war. John King called it right on CNN: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too. It's also why at the darkest hour I bought Biden at 262 EVS.

    In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.

    Before I went to bed last night (yes I actually managed to sleep) I was thinking it was else to ignore the cries of go all in for Texas. All that would have done is repeat 2016 mistakes.

    I think this election has shown the democrats need to learn how to wisely spend money though, the senate races were not great. Still 2 runoffs in Georgia could go the Dems way.
    No need to go ‘all in’ - but if they’d earlier on in the campaign invested the $200m squandered on two Senate seats they lost by double figures, it might have been considerably closer.

    Obviously that was never going to happen, but it’s an illustration of what might have been possible.
    The election for governor in two years time might be very interesting. It certainly will be in Georgia.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    As I've been saying, I think Biden is going to win Georgia

    https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324600180176551936?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    In Philadelphia, police are reportedly investigating a tip about an alleged plot to attack the Pennsylvania Convention Center, where officials are counting ballots.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).

    What a lot of ramping. Sounds like you got out of bed with a very sore loser head.

    It's not often that an incumbent is defeated (only thrice before in American history) and, for all his faults, Trump's record on the economy was impressive, at least on paper. The economy was a significant factor. He really ramped up the 401(k) issue which is crucial for many Americans: some 50% own stocks and shares (31% have 401(k)) and as he has bigged-up his Wall St credentials, it was a significant factor.

    Bush, Carter, Hoover, Taft, Cleveland, Van Buuren, Adams.

    That’s more than three.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    The United States recorded 102,830 new cases of Covid-19 on Thursday – a record daily high, and the second consecutive day the country recorded more than 100,000 infections.

    The states that recorded the most new cases were Texas (9,509), Illinois (7,538), Wisconsin (5,936) and California (5,519). It’s an open question whether voting activity will emerge as a significant driver of new cases in the coming weeks.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    There’s a whole chain of it on this one.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Any idea how mane votes are left in Penn?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    edited November 2020
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/DrAlGrossAK/status/1324520484885667845?s=19

    Would need a Pennsylvania level of split but given we have no idea what the split it I am calling Alaska as a live race.

    So back in the good old Biden landslide days I had this thought that maybe Florida would get called for Biden while Alaskans were still at work, same-day voters would figure the race was over and go for a beer instead, and Biden would get a weirdly high vote share because his vote had already been mailed.

    Maybe I got all that right, except the "called for *Biden*" part...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ydoethur said:

    I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).

    What a lot of ramping. Sounds like you got out of bed with a very sore loser head.

    It's not often that an incumbent is defeated (only thrice before in American history) and, for all his faults, Trump's record on the economy was impressive, at least on paper. The economy was a significant factor. He really ramped up the 401(k) issue which is crucial for many Americans: some 50% own stocks and shares (31% have 401(k)) and as he has bigged-up his Wall St credentials, it was a significant factor.

    Bush, Carter, Hoover, Taft, Cleveland, Van Buuren, Adams.

    That’s more than three.
    You're quite right. Sorry.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    A lot of people are tyred of him though
  • ydoethur said:

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?
    I doubt he'd go that far but I do think there's a tipping point somewhere when the GOP all start to move against him and say, "nope, it's over" and just stop entertaining Trump's bullshit. It's not happening before the media have called it, but maybe after that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited November 2020

    ydoethur said:

    I had been very sceptical of the Democrat campaign (from an ocean away, so what the **** do I know?) but I genuinely cannot believe they failed to win a landslide victory against the worst President in my lifetime, a man who is clearly suffering from some form of cognitive decline and who was literally recorded bragging about sexual assault. The Democrats are going to get obliterated in 2024 when they're up against any Republican less toxic than Trump (which is any Republican).

    What a lot of ramping. Sounds like you got out of bed with a very sore loser head.

    It's not often that an incumbent is defeated (only thrice before in American history) and, for all his faults, Trump's record on the economy was impressive, at least on paper. The economy was a significant factor. He really ramped up the 401(k) issue which is crucial for many Americans: some 50% own stocks and shares (31% have 401(k)) and as he has bigged-up his Wall St credentials, it was a significant factor.

    Bush, Carter, Hoover, Taft, Cleveland, Van Buuren, Adams.

    That’s more than three.
    You're quite right. Sorry.
    It has however only happened three times since the First World War, so you do have a point. Heck, they even elected Roosevelt four times despite him repeatedly breaking his word, running a corrupt government and leaving his whole eastern flank horribly exposed to the Japanese.

    Edit - I’ve discounted Ford as he was a truly unique case.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Has Bannon been arrested for incitement yet ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Denial :wink::smiley:

    I can only assume some punters, especially over here, don't study the detail?
    Is Biden worth a bet at 1/12?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    A lot of people are tyred of him though
    No longer their spokes-person.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ydoethur said:

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?
    Blimey. I see it's starting to trend.

    The impending fight is the Democrats best hope for the Georgian run-offs. Ordinarily I'd expect them to lose both but there's going to be one hell of a bloodbath in the GOP soon. Going into the run-offs with a fractious party isn't going to help the Republicans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?
    I doubt he'd go that far but I do think there's a tipping point somewhere when the GOP all start to move against him and say, "nope, it's over" and just stop entertaining Trump's bullshit. It's not happening before the media have called it, but maybe after that.
    I wonder. After the last 72 hours, if he did go for it I think he can be fairly sure the Senate and the House would back him as the likeliest way to ensure a proper transition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited November 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    There’s a whole chain of it on this one.
    I see you’re gearing up for more puns.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    There’s a whole chain of it on this one.
    I see you’re gearing up for more puns.
    Have you ever known me to shift on this?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Denial :wink::smiley:

    I can only assume some punters, especially over here, don't study the detail?
    Is Biden worth a bet at 1/12?
    Free money. Where else do you get a return like that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Denial :wink::smiley:

    I can only assume some punters, especially over here, don't study the detail?
    Is Biden worth a bet at 1/12?
    It’s a decent rare of interest.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Has Bannon been arrested for incitement yet ?

    Worse, had his Twitter and YouTube account suspended.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Here's some breakdown on why Trump is going to lose Georgia

    https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1324604024822194176?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    There’s a whole chain of it on this one.
    I see you’re gearing up for more puns.
    Have you ever known me to shift on this?
    No, you’re clearly saddling up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    There’s a whole chain of it on this one.
    In tandem with lots of other rubbish
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    A lot of people are tyred of him though
    You guys for wheel?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    That last Georgia update from a very small batch broke 9:1 for Biden!

    https://twitter.com/Grochowa2/status/1324601035399127040?s=20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    It will certainly be nice to see some dignity back in the White House. Biden has personified that since Tuesday.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/DrAlGrossAK/status/1324520484885667845?s=19

    Would need a Pennsylvania level of split but given we have no idea what the split it I am calling Alaska as a live race.

    So back in the good old Biden landslide days I had this thought that maybe Florida would get called for Biden while Alaskans were still at work, same-day voters would figure the race was over and go for a beer instead, and Biden would get a weirdly high vote share because his vote had already been mailed.

    Maybe I got all that right, except the "called for *Biden*" part...
    I don't think the Dems will win either the Senate seat or the ECs, but I hadn't realised that zero mail ballots had been counted.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    It will certainly be nice to see some dignity back in the White House. Biden has personified that since Tuesday.
    Truly has.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    It would be fucking hilarious if they got the Senate seat though, taking it to 50/50 with the runoffs to come.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/DrAlGrossAK/status/1324520484885667845?s=19

    Would need a Pennsylvania level of split but given we have no idea what the split it I am calling Alaska as a live race.

    So back in the good old Biden landslide days I had this thought that maybe Florida would get called for Biden while Alaskans were still at work, same-day voters would figure the race was over and go for a beer instead, and Biden would get a weirdly high vote share because his vote had already been mailed.

    Maybe I got all that right, except the "called for *Biden*" part...
    I don't think the Dems will win either the Senate seat or the ECs, but I hadn't realised that zero mail ballots had been counted.
    They take time to defrost.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    It will certainly be nice to see some dignity back in the White House. Biden has personified that since Tuesday.
    Truly has.
    In fairness, I despise the man, but Pence has also said all the right things.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    ydoethur said:

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?

    Is that not the only way he gets a pardon?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    There’s a whole chain of it on this one.
    In tandem with lots of other rubbish
    Have to leave this freewheeling discussion to get ready for work.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    So to anyone that followed my tip on Ossoff, you haven't quite lost your money yet :smiley: Apologies that it's going to be tied up until January.

    Of the two Georgia runoffs*, Ossoff is the best hope for the Dems because the special senate was a jungle primary with a split GOP ticket.

    Does Ossoff have a chance? Normally GOP do better on these runoffs in January. However, it's evident that Perdue is a weak candidate and vulnerable to attack.

    I think it's a real possibility that the two runoffs will split with a win apiece. If the GOP hold the two outstanding senate races in North Carolina and Alaska then that will give them the Senate 51-49. Neither are a shoo-in, despite Thom Tillis declaring himself the winner.

    (* I'm assuming no unexpected late surge for Perdue today)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Hannity on Fox is clearly going to go with the Trump fraud narrative bigly
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited November 2020

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Denial :wink::smiley:

    I can only assume some punters, especially over here, don't study the detail?
    Is Biden worth a bet at 1/12?
    Free money. Where else do you get a return like that?
    you sure? I'm not sure a £2000 stake for £166 sounds too sensible but it's a few bottles of champagne to celebrate if its a CERTAINTY?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?
    I doubt he'd go that far but I do think there's a tipping point somewhere when the GOP all start to move against him and say, "nope, it's over" and just stop entertaining Trump's bullshit. It's not happening before the media have called it, but maybe after that.
    I wonder. After the last 72 hours, if he did go for it I think he can be fairly sure the Senate and the House would back him as the likeliest way to ensure a proper transition.
    I just feel like it picks a fight with the Trump base that he doesn't want or need, unless he plans to retire.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_xP said:
    Well, she should know given how long they knew each other.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    A lot of people have claimed that Donald Trump suffers from some kind of mental illness. I wonder if it's to do with an accident he had when he was young, and he got run over by a bike.

    Apparently it made him into a cycle path.

    That’s just pedalling nonsense.
    There’s a whole chain of it on this one.
    In tandem with lots of other rubbish
    Have to leave this freewheeling discussion to get ready for work.
    Squeezing into that Lycra is tough so early in the morning?
  • Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?

    Is that not the only way he gets a pardon?
    Trump could try to pardon himself, or he could hand over power to Pence of his own volition. Ill health grounds might be good, as he'll want to make that defence if there are also state charges that aren't covered by the pardon.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Denial :wink::smiley:

    I can only assume some punters, especially over here, don't study the detail?
    Is Biden worth a bet at 1/12?
    Free money. Where else do you get a return like that?
    you sure? I'm not sure a £2000 stake for £166 sounds too sensible but it's a few bottles of champagne to celebrate if its a CERTAINTY?
    In what sense is it not sure?

    Biden has won. There is no miracle pill now for Trump.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    IanB2 said:

    Hannity on Fox is clearly going to go with the Trump fraud narrative bigly

    https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1324102494885216261
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    Trump is clinging on in PA and GA.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?

    Is that not the only way he gets a pardon?
    Trump could try to pardon himself, or he could hand over power to Pence of his own volition. Ill health grounds might be good, as he'll want to make that defence if there are also state charges that aren't covered by the pardon.
    I'm sure his head would explode before he could bring himself to do that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Denial :wink::smiley:

    I can only assume some punters, especially over here, don't study the detail?
    Is Biden worth a bet at 1/12?
    Free money. Where else do you get a return like that?
    you sure? I'm not sure a £2000 stake for £166 sounds too sensible but it's a few bottles of champagne to celebrate if its a CERTAINTY?
    In what sense is it not sure?

    Biden has won. There is no miracle pill now for Trump.
    I hadn't seen it as definitively as that. Thanks. Enjoy Queens Gambit!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know this is naughty but the long slow demise of Donald Trump is really rather delicious. I'm not a vindictive type but in this case it's thoroughly deserved. Although I think he may, genuinely, be mentally ill.

    The end result won't be close. He will have lost by c. 5% nationally and convincingly in the ECV's. I still have Biden on 306 but it 'might' be 290. Had the results been counted differently this would have been done and dusted.

    Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?
    I doubt he'd go that far but I do think there's a tipping point somewhere when the GOP all start to move against him and say, "nope, it's over" and just stop entertaining Trump's bullshit. It's not happening before the media have called it, but maybe after that.
    I wonder. After the last 72 hours, if he did go for it I think he can be fairly sure the Senate and the House would back him as the likeliest way to ensure a proper transition.
    I just feel like it picks a fight with the Trump base that he doesn't want or need, unless he plans to retire.
    Well, the Trump family have clearly given up, as the other hopefuls have started firing at high profile rival Nikki Haley:

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-junior-targets-nikki-haley-for-lack-of-action-over-vote-fraud-claims-2321468
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hannity on Fox is clearly going to go with the Trump fraud narrative bigly

    https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1324102494885216261
    He’s building a great circumstantial case for PA being a nest of vipers and home to fraud. With quotes from CNN. Video. Anonymous testimony of people claiming to have been ordered to commit election fraud. Basically, like The Wire shifted north.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is clinging on in PA and GA.

    In what way? Predictions for PA are for a handsome Biden win.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 193
    The primary reason people voted for Trump is Law and Order.If the George Floyd murder had not happened i suspect Biden would have won by a landslide.People may be shocked by 60 plus million voting for Trump but the flipside of that is that others are shocked by the MSM's and others uncritical embrace of BLM .
    Plenty of Videos of BLM mobs expose them as violent bullies.If they were labelled 'right wing' the MSM would be calling them out for the fascist bullies those mobs often are
    Not a single Premier League footballer has rebelled against taking the knee despite the fact BLM has a manifesto that is anti-capitalist,anti nuclear family and anti the police.And yet very few media outlets are criticising the premier league for the lack of diversity of opinion within it.
    Personally i find both Trumps behaviour and the elites sycophancy to BLM both shocking .
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Good morning to the PB Early Breakfast Club .... :smiley:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    JACK_W said:

    Good morning to the PB Early Breakfast Club .... :smiley:

    You mean first breakfast?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is clinging on in PA and GA.

    He's deader than a doornail in PA
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    edited November 2020

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is clinging on in PA and GA.

    In what way? Predictions for PA are for a handsome Biden win.
    I just meant at the present time. He won't be ahead for long.

    In hindsight Trump should have spent more time in PA and less in Florida and Texas.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So out of interest to me for the Dems going forward is "which seats they flipped in '18 did they win and lose today and by how much?"
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JACK_W said:

    Good morning to the PB Early Breakfast Club .... :smiley:

    Breakfast early, and breakfast often...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Chris said:

    Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.

    Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    When will this madness end? (Genuine question)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Jonathan said:

    When will this madness end? (Genuine question)

    On January 20, 2021.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Pen 44k
    GA 2.5k
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Hannity on Fox is clearly going to go with the Trump fraud narrative bigly

    https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1324102494885216261
    He’s building a great circumstantial case for PA being a nest of vipers and home to fraud. With quotes from CNN. Video. Anonymous testimony of people claiming to have been ordered to commit election fraud. Basically, like The Wire shifted north.
    Which means it's good that Biden is likely to win Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and now Georgia. The ECV and national share will look so convincing that Trump's scattergun challenges have lost potency (except of course to the conspiracy loons but hey).

    Florida 2000 was so different because it came down to 1 state and a visible, tangible, issue: the hanging chads.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/11/12/666812854/the-florida-recount-of-2000-a-nightmare-that-goes-on-haunting

  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Trump is clinging on in PA and GA.

    He's deader than a doornail in PA
    The ghost of Private Frazer of "Dad's Army" says to Trump :

    "You're doomed, doomed, do yer hear what I say Donald? ... you're doomed !!!!
This discussion has been closed.