As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Is Trump now hoping it will rain then?
Surely Trump has a point in relation to Nevada. I mean, other than the time taken painting each new ballot slip by hand, is there any explanation for the speed of their count?
I think the key to a good trade deal is to offer to export the Sunderland and Newcastle elections staff.
Surely Trump has a point in relation to Nevada. I mean, other than the time taken painting each new ballot slip by hand, is there any explanation for the speed of their count?
Over/under on the main Betfair market settlement date?
I’ll go 7 days.
Depends on recounts. Recounts in Georgia have to be requested, and the Reps will request one. I think some other states may be recounting too - Wisconsin? Pennsylvania recounts are automatically triggered - so it looks like there will be one there.
As for GOP legal challenges - they are not going to litigate away a 74 ECV deficit - no chance - so I`d be surprised if this caused any delay to bet settlement from the bookies.
So having created a new set of restrictions (the Tier system) which there may have been hope of people sticking to consistently over a reasonable period and which was possibly having the intended effect - we have instead launched into an economically and socially unsustainable set of restrictions which are creating the circumstances for a future acceleration in the virus when they are lifted in a few weeks time and everyone pours out of their houses in relief at the return of their social freedom...
My wife said to me yesterday that one of her colleagues was disappointed that Biden was winning because she'd read that Biden was a paedophile and involved in an underground paedophile ring. My wife asked her if she really thought Biden was a paedophile why he hadn't been arrested for it to which she had no answer except that there was a paedophile ring he was involved in.
Scary to think just how far this QAnon bullsit has gotten. "I have read this so it must be true" is getting scary nowadays.
You wonder what people like that think if they read two different things. Whichever they want to believe, I suppose.
It's the same as kle4's Obama supporting colleague. People choose their world view on emotions far more than we like to think they do. They aren't often asked to justify it, so never do.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Don't self flagellate! Exchange of views there. All totally fine.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
Hey! I don`t think I talked you out of it. If I recall correctly I suggested selling a third at one price-point, and other third at another price-point and let the rest run. Anyway, you were wittering on about your bet insufferably at the time.
I know. Just joking. I wanted the position going into the night. Did ok on the whole. Biggest hedge was Florida which won and it does like the supremacy bet is going to end up quite decent. Had 100s of other bets on various markets, winners and losers, and I reckon I'll be net up in the very low 4 digits when the curtain falls.
There was lots of free money available, I found. For example, bets on safe red and blue states at prices up to 1.1. Some good arbs, exchange vs SPIN. And fabulous value at nearly evens on the 2 PV totals, Trump to beat 70m and Biden to beat 75m.
How is your overall betting on all this looking? Should be pretty good?
I`ve placed hundreds of bets. Over £2k worth in the last 48 hours alone. The post-election night betting opportunities have been legion.
I do not know what I`ve bet overall or what my winnings will be. If pressed I`d guess I`ll be £3k up when the curtain falls, maybe a touch more.
I`m slightly annoyed because at 3am election night I bottled it and reverse-ferreted some of my Next President and Winning Party bets. That cost me £1k + I guess. If only I`d fallen asleep on the sofa like I usually do.
So let's say £5k between us then with you shading it. It's good. More than good. Although if you express it as a yield on time spent I bet it's less than minimum wage. Still, money's only money. For me the main thing was Trump out. I could not have borne another 4 years. I'd have had to drop politics and betting punditry as a hobby and take up something different. Perhaps something to do with my hands.
As a note, a good result for Biden in the states left is say 1%+ margins. I'm not sure of each states recount stipulation but 1% I think is a threshold for many, some like Georgia are 0.5%, so it just takes away a delay source.
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
Blimey, ok.
You seriously think someone putting his arm around someone else while they're being photo'd is "dodgy"?
I've put my arm around people I don't know before while getting a photo together, I didn't realise it was "dodgy" to do so. Have you never? Should we burn everyone who's ever had a photo taken like that?
Its not like he was grabbing them by the pussy.
I’m not a very touchy feely person. I’ve certainly never touched a girl under 16, since I’ve been 18, in any way, certainly not the way Biden does in those pics. I doubt Keir Starmer would do you? No doubt Trump would, and maybe that’s why he didn’t make anything of it, but it made me flinch.
You keep saying ‘dodgy’ I think a psychotherapist would have a field day!
You should get this material out in front of the American public. It could swing the election.
I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Perhaps cricket matches where one team wins by <10 runs should be decided by SCOTUS.</p>
Or perhaps not....
I have played in a Thursday night knockabout 20:20 with absolutely nothing resting on the outcome of the game where the scorer was asked to do a re-count. His result (we were 2 short) was correct but about half a dozen batsmen berated him for putting runs down as byes or leg byes when they all said they "clearly hit it, I remember that one, it went wide of fine leg, mate, come on, can't you hear willow on leather? Look, I know I hit it and my season average is going to say so too"
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Every modern UK Prime Minister has always worked with every modern US President.
Before Trump won Johnson was scathing of Trump. As President though he had no choice but to work with him, even if he was able to then repeatedly laugh at him behind his back.
Key figures in the genesis first of Brexit, and then the Johnson premiership, have had a close relationship with key figures behind the Trump presidency, for five to six years.
Johnson was absolutely uncompromisingly scathing of Trump prior to Trump becoming President.
The PM works with the President. Respect goes with the title not the person. From 20 January the PM will continue to work with the President, America and Britain will remain close Five Eyes allies no matter what unless someone like Corbyn ever gets elected who wants to end the alliance. That's not Biden.
This is what Boris had to say in December 2015 "Donald Trump is out of his mind . . . stupifying ignorance . . . unfit to hold office of President of the United States . . . I wouldn't want to expose Londoners to any unnecessary risk of meeting Donald Trump . . . he is talking complete nonsense."
..and one year later he hitched himself to a project which was umbilically linked to figures like Steve Bannon, without which he would never have become Prime Minister.
The point remaining that he is not and never has been a fervent Trump man, but has acted in his own political self interest, which when PM involved working with world leaders as they exist, as Macron and others have. The awfulness of Boris has nothing to do with him actually being friends with Trump or dedicated to Trump in some way. If for policy reasons he'd have preferred Trump that will have an impact, but that's not the same thing that people are doing, transparently and unnecessarily trying to bind the two much closer together so he can share in Trump's awfulness.
No, I can't agree with this at all. His backroom and cabinet staff have had extensive links to Trump's, and through Brexit and maverick populism their operations have even been quite open about considering themselves fighting on the same cultural front. It wasn't the average relationship of expendiency.
Yes, that's true. He has maintained the veneer of expediency though, and if it has fooled politically engaged people on here, it will probably fool the wider public. He is capitalising on the presumption that the left are always looking for things to be outraged about, which Starmer et al are doing a good job of combating but it will take a while.
I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
Good to have a good personal relationship between the leaders though.
I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
Precisely. Five Eyes doesn't depend upon the POTUS though it certainly could be threatened by it Biden is simply not a threat to it.
I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
With the kind of people who see Brexit as both a mistake for the UK and contrary to rational US foreign policy objectives.
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
Blimey, ok.
You seriously think someone putting his arm around someone else while they're being photo'd is "dodgy"?
I've put my arm around people I don't know before while getting a photo together, I didn't realise it was "dodgy" to do so. Have you never? Should we burn everyone who's ever had a photo taken like that?
Its not like he was grabbing them by the pussy.
I’m not a very touchy feely person. I’ve certainly never touched a girl under 16, since I’ve been 18, in any way, certainly not the way Biden does in those pics. I doubt Keir Starmer would do you? No doubt Trump would, and maybe that’s why he didn’t make anything of it, but it made me flinch.
You keep saying ‘dodgy’ I think a psychotherapist would have a field day!
You should get this material out in front of the American public. It could swing the election.
I don’t think you are as funny or good at delivery as you think!
I only asked if it was weird or out of context. If you’re happy for old blokes to touch your kids like that it’s your call.
The security, intelligence and military relationship will continue. The political and cultural relationship, while Johnson and Biden are in power at the same time, will be different, that's all ; and that may also have implications for trade.
Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.
It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.
The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.
If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Is Trump now hoping it will rain then?
Surely Trump has a point in relation to Nevada. I mean, other than the time taken painting each new ballot slip by hand, is there any explanation for the speed of their count?
I understand that they are always insanely slow for some reason. I think it was the same in 2016.
Vegas has a lot of nightlife apparently. I hear its like Blackpool, so they start work late and finish early....
Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.
It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.
The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.
If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
That kind of dealing will not happen. Like Trump's secret powers to overturn the entire election by means of his son, Rudy & Grenell, the latter a man I could tell you some stories about. It would make the QAnon people take stock if they had the wit to do so.
I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
With the kind of people who see Brexit as both a mistake for the UK and contrary to rational US foreign policy objectives.
But it's not going to be reversed for at least the next decade most likely, so it's a case of get on and work as well together as possible. The foreign policy aims of the UK and the US aren't too dissimilar if you take Brexit out of the equation. Take Belarus and the sanctions we imposed, while the EU is still squabbling over it.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Perhaps cricket matches where one team wins by <10 runs should be decided by SCOTUS.</p>
Hmm. We might have to give back both the 2005 Ashes and 2019 World Cup on that basis...
I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
With the kind of people who see Brexit as both a mistake for the UK and contrary to rational US foreign policy objectives.
But it's not going to be reversed for at least the next decade most likely, so it's a case of get on and work as well together as possible. The foreign policy aims of the UK and the US aren't too dissimilar if you take Brexit out of the equation. Take Belarus and the sanctions we imposed, while the EU is still squabbling over it.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Don't self flagellate! Exchange of views there. All totally fine.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
Hey! I don`t think I talked you out of it. If I recall correctly I suggested selling a third at one price-point, and other third at another price-point and let the rest run. Anyway, you were wittering on about your bet insufferably at the time.
I know. Just joking. I wanted the position going into the night. Did ok on the whole. Biggest hedge was Florida which won and it does like the supremacy bet is going to end up quite decent. Had 100s of other bets on various markets, winners and losers, and I reckon I'll be net up in the very low 4 digits when the curtain falls.
There was lots of free money available, I found. For example, bets on safe red and blue states at prices up to 1.1. Some good arbs, exchange vs SPIN. And fabulous value at nearly evens on the 2 PV totals, Trump to beat 70m and Biden to beat 75m.
How is your overall betting on all this looking? Should be pretty good?
I`ve placed hundreds of bets. Over £2k worth in the last 48 hours alone. The post-election night betting opportunities have been legion.
I do not know what I`ve bet overall or what my winnings will be. If pressed I`d guess I`ll be £3k up when the curtain falls, maybe a touch more.
I`m slightly annoyed because at 3am election night I bottled it and reverse-ferreted some of my Next President and Winning Party bets. That cost me £1k + I guess. If only I`d fallen asleep on the sofa like I usually do.
So let's say £5k between us then with you shading it. It's good. More than good. Although if you express it as a yield on time spent I bet it's less than minimum wage. Still, money's only money. For me the main thing was Trump out. I could not have borne another 4 years. I'd have had to drop politics and betting punditry as a hobby and take up something different. Perhaps something to do with my hands.
Masturbation?
You sometimes surprise. But not always.
Serious answer? Beekeeping. Imagine making your own honey.
Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.
It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.
The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.
If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
That kind of dealing will not happen. Like Trump's secret powers to overturn the entire election by means of his son, Rudy & Grenell, the latter a man I could tell you some stories about. It would make the QAnon people take stock if they had the wit to do so.
The key is "if they had the wit to do so", which they obviously don't. McConnell needs to think of something though because I think it is likely the Democrats pick up at least one of the two Senate seats in GA in January.
Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.
It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.
The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.
If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
That kind of dealing will not happen. Like Trump's secret powers to overturn the entire election by means of his son, Rudy & Grenell, the latter a man I could tell you some stories about. It would make the QAnon people take stock if they had the wit to do so.
The key is "if they had the wit to do so", which they obviously don't. McConnell needs to think of something though because I think it is likely the Democrats pick up at least one of the two Senate seats in GA in January.
I agree with that I think they will gain at least 1 possibly both, There seems a real shift going on in GA, even though the vote this time is so close
So what I'm looking forward to next is people misunderstanding statistics and thinking because the result is like within like .4% that a recount could easily over turn it without discovering a massive systemic fuck up.
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
Blimey, ok.
You seriously think someone putting his arm around someone else while they're being photo'd is "dodgy"?
I've put my arm around people I don't know before while getting a photo together, I didn't realise it was "dodgy" to do so. Have you never? Should we burn everyone who's ever had a photo taken like that?
Its not like he was grabbing them by the pussy.
I’m not a very touchy feely person. I’ve certainly never touched a girl under 16, since I’ve been 18, in any way, certainly not the way Biden does in those pics. I doubt Keir Starmer would do you? No doubt Trump would, and maybe that’s why he didn’t make anything of it, but it made me flinch.
You keep saying ‘dodgy’ I think a psychotherapist would have a field day!
You should get this material out in front of the American public. It could swing the election.
I don’t think you are as funny or good at delivery as you think!
I only asked if it was weird or out of context. If you’re happy for old blokes to touch your kids like that it’s your call.
Of course it is creepy. It is deeply creepy. It was creepy when it was brought up last year. It is still creepy now.
It was one of the many, many reasons I incorrectly thought Biden wouldn't even make it to Iowa let alone get the Nom. However it turns out America loves creepy old guys. 🤷♂️
I know you are hurting at the moment, your man couldn't do it. I feel for you. My recommendation is to take the L and move on. Try not to obsess about the one that got away.
Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.
It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.
The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.
If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
Didn't Graham make a speech pledging to support Trump pretty much fully? Though i saw something last night from him
Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.
It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.
The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.
If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
That kind of dealing will not happen. Like Trump's secret powers to overturn the entire election by means of his son, Rudy & Grenell, the latter a man I could tell you some stories about. It would make the QAnon people take stock if they had the wit to do so.
The key is "if they had the wit to do so", which they obviously don't. McConnell needs to think of something though because I think it is likely the Democrats pick up at least one of the two Senate seats in GA in January.
I'm not sure it's that likely. Perdue was very close to the threshold, appears to have some incumbency benefit, with Ossoff running behind Biden. And Loeffler was damaged by the campaign between her and Collins being brutal and requiring her to burnish her right wing credentials in a way that favoured Warnock. She is never going to be a moderate, but can tack back and focus her fire on the Democrats rather than her colleague.
They are both tempting possibilities for the Democrats for sure, but I think on balance it is more likely that both seats will stay Republican in a much lower turnout run-off.
Spare a thought for poor Mike Pence, who will become the first VP since Dan Quayle to have to announce his loss on the floor of Congress.
Unless he becomes President beforehand of course due a Trump flounce.
I'd be interested to see a market on that. Is Trump really going to come to Biden's inauguration in January?
No, but he might tweet his thoughts about it on the day
Given it's the day he ceases to benefit from Twitter's light-touch policy on suspensions/bans for world leaders, I suppose he might as well enjoy it while he still can.
ONS survey still correlates to daily case data very well. The R in NW, NE, London, Scotland, SE and NI is now below 1. This is before lockdown was even being contemplated.
We we're forced into it using dodgy data and models from substandard scientists.
Yep - Saturdays briefing is going to be a problem for those responsible. There is a clear need to tell the truth in these things when talking to the public. Politicians may not see through the bullsh1t but there are enough of us out in the public that will. I really think Vallance and Whitty should apologise for this to the nation, but I doubt they will.
So having created a new set of restrictions (the Tier system) which there may have been hope of people sticking to consistently over a reasonable period and which was possibly having the intended effect - we have instead launched into an economically and socially unsustainable set of restrictions which are creating the circumstances for a future acceleration in the virus when they are lifted in a few weeks time and everyone pours out of their houses in relief at the return of their social freedom...
Of course, four weeks will have a decent effect, allow the 'more normal' Christmas to happen followed by a jan lockdown as the number soar again. At least we should be rolling on vaccines by then.
As the Times pointed out yesterday, never again will we have to listen to Americans complaining that cricket goes on for days and days with no clear winner.
Perhaps cricket matches where one team wins by <10 runs should be decided by SCOTUS.</p>
Or perhaps not....
I have played in a Thursday night knockabout 20:20 with absolutely nothing resting on the outcome of the game where the scorer was asked to do a re-count. His result (we were 2 short) was correct but about half a dozen batsmen berated him for putting runs down as byes or leg byes when they all said they "clearly hit it, I remember that one, it went wide of fine leg, mate, come on, can't you hear willow on leather? Look, I know I hit it and my season average is going to say so too"
Played in a similar game years ago. We needed x to win from the last over, reached it with the last ball, so won. Later in the pub, the losing team tried to argue that because the book was wrong, it was actually a tie. Bollocks, say we, if we'd needed x+1, we would have scored x+1... And just for a friendly too...
ONS survey still correlates to daily case data very well. The R in NW, NE, London, Scotland, SE and NI is now below 1. This is before lockdown was even being contemplated.
We we're forced into it using dodgy data and models from substandard scientists.
Yep - Saturdays briefing is going to be a problem for those responsible. There is a clear need to tell the truth in these things when talking to the public. Politicians may not see through the bullsh1t but there are enough of us out in the public that will. I really think Vallance and Whitty should apologise for this to the nation, but I doubt they will.
Still leaves open the possibility of the lockdown being eased a week or 10 days early. Boris gets us into the Christmas mood early. "Gawd bless yer, Guv, and no mistake...."
Comments
As for GOP legal challenges - they are not going to litigate away a 74 ECV deficit - no chance - so I`d be surprised if this caused any delay to bet settlement from the bookies.
Or have to watch the same adverts on CNN over, and over, and over...
They aren't often asked to justify it, so never do.
54K Biden
66k Trump
Biden wins AZ IMO
I think 10k plus if not 20k plus
Was 1.27 10 mins ago
I only asked if it was weird or out of context. If you’re happy for old blokes to touch your kids like that it’s your call.
Its going to cost lives if they dont shut this idiot down
Or if they do!!
It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.
The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.
If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
Serious answer? Beekeeping. Imagine making your own honey.
It was one of the many, many reasons I incorrectly thought Biden wouldn't even make it to Iowa let alone get the Nom. However it turns out America loves creepy old guys. 🤷♂️
I know you are hurting at the moment, your man couldn't do it. I feel for you. My recommendation is to take the L and move on. Try not to obsess about the one that got away.
They are both tempting possibilities for the Democrats for sure, but I think on balance it is more likely that both seats will stay Republican in a much lower turnout run-off.