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Where the race stands (0510 GMT) – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidL said:

    Surely Trump has a point in relation to Nevada. I mean, other than the time taken painting each new ballot slip by hand, is there any explanation for the speed of their count?
    I think the key to a good trade deal is to offer to export the Sunderland and Newcastle elections staff.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    dixiedean said:

    If only there were a superforecaster to have foreseen this possibility.
    We hear this stuff with every single US President as if its a potential problem. It usually isn't
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,550
    DavidL said:

    Surely Trump has a point in relation to Nevada. I mean, other than the time taken painting each new ballot slip by hand, is there any explanation for the speed of their count?

    https://twitter.com/ej11lizzie/status/1324218622751830019
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    ping said:

    Over/under on the main Betfair market settlement date?

    I’ll go 7 days.

    Depends on recounts. Recounts in Georgia have to be requested, and the Reps will request one. I think some other states may be recounting too - Wisconsin? Pennsylvania recounts are automatically triggered - so it looks like there will be one there.

    As for GOP legal challenges - they are not going to litigate away a 74 ECV deficit - no chance - so I`d be surprised if this caused any delay to bet settlement from the bookies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    Scott_xP said:
    Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Has always seemed to me that 'Commonwealth' sounds a bit communist.
    Meant to. Penn was pinko scum; Bushell's Case (if they teach it at Cambridge) was all about stopping him holding demonstrations in Gracechurch Street.
  • I'm not sure where I'll be after the next few days when I won't hear "KEY RACE ALERT" every 5 minutes.

    Or have to watch the same adverts on CNN over, and over, and over...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    So having created a new set of restrictions (the Tier system) which there may have been hope of people sticking to consistently over a reasonable period and which was possibly having the intended effect - we have instead launched into an economically and socially unsustainable set of restrictions which are creating the circumstances for a future acceleration in the virus when they are lifted in a few weeks time and everyone pours out of their houses in relief at the return of their social freedom...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    kinabalu said:

    So let's say £5k between us then with you shading it. It's good. More than good. Although if you express it as a yield on time spent I bet it's less than minimum wage. Still, money's only money. For me the main thing was Trump out. I could not have borne another 4 years. I'd have had to drop politics and betting punditry as a hobby and take up something different. Perhaps something to do with my hands.
    Masturbation?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    As a note, a good result for Biden in the states left is say 1%+ margins. I'm not sure of each states recount stipulation but 1% I think is a threshold for many, some like Georgia are 0.5%, so it just takes away a delay source.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,070

    D'oh! Yes of course.
    It was worse for Al Gore, as he was the Presidential candidate, not the VP candidate.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    I’m not a very touchy feely person. I’ve certainly never touched a girl under 16, since I’ve been 18, in any way, certainly not the way Biden does in those pics. I doubt Keir Starmer would do you? No doubt Trump would, and maybe that’s why he didn’t make anything of it, but it made me flinch.

    You keep saying ‘dodgy’ I think a psychotherapist would have a field day!
    You should get this material out in front of the American public. It could swing the election.
  • Has always seemed to me that 'Commonwealth' sounds a bit communist.
    Why? Sounds rather British to me.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    AZ - Since I went to bed last night there are 120k additional votes

    54K Biden
    66k Trump

    Biden wins AZ IMO

    I think 10k plus if not 20k plus

    Was 1.27 10 mins ago
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,550

    I'm not sure where I'll be after the next few days when I won't hear "KEY RACE ALERT" every 5 minutes.

    Or have to watch the same adverts on CNN over, and over, and over...

    If you watch online you don't get the commercials
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    Scott_xP said:

    If you watch online you don't get the commercials
    I can imagine it now.. "stand by for a key race alert" on repeat for five minutes.
  • RH1992 said:

    I don't really get the fuss over this. It's basically a reversion to the status quo when Obama thought that Merkel/Hollande were the key players in Europe and regularly went to them over Cameron first. Cameron and Brown were both snubbed by Obama and we still got on. Trump didn't exactly favour the UK either, he just seemed to hate all things EU even more. Regardless of what happens, our on again off again relationship with the US will continue as usual.
    People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    DavidL said:

    Or perhaps not....
    I have played in a Thursday night knockabout 20:20 with absolutely nothing resting on the outcome of the game where the scorer was asked to do a re-count. His result (we were 2 short) was correct but about half a dozen batsmen berated him for putting runs down as byes or leg byes when they all said they "clearly hit it, I remember that one, it went wide of fine leg, mate, come on, can't you hear willow on leather? Look, I know I hit it and my season average is going to say so too"
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    I'm not sure where I'll be after the next few days when I won't hear "KEY RACE ALERT" every 5 minutes.

    Or have to watch the same adverts on CNN over, and over, and over...

    Ha, ha - I`m with you. That guy with the white hair at the chart is captivating.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 437
    edited November 2020

    No, I can't agree with this at all. His backroom and cabinet staff have had extensive links to Trump's, and through Brexit and maverick populism their operations have even been quite open about considering themselves fighting on the same cultural front. It wasn't the average relationship of expendiency.
    Yes, that's true. He has maintained the veneer of expediency though, and if it has fooled politically engaged people on here, it will probably fool the wider public. He is capitalising on the presumption that the left are always looking for things to be outraged about, which Starmer et al are doing a good job of combating but it will take a while.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313

    People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
    Good to have a good personal relationship between the leaders though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    New thread folks.
  • People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
    Precisely. Five Eyes doesn't depend upon the POTUS though it certainly could be threatened by it Biden is simply not a threat to it.
  • I wonder what Steve Hilton will be doing? He was on Fox a few days ago bigging up The Toddler
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482

    People underestimate how much of the relationship is baked in at the official level.
    With the kind of people who see Brexit as both a mistake for the UK and contrary to rational US foreign policy objectives.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,119
    Alistair said:

    You should get this material out in front of the American public. It could swing the election.
    I don’t think you are as funny or good at delivery as you think!

    I only asked if it was weird or out of context. If you’re happy for old blokes to touch your kids like that it’s your call.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Time for Twitter to suspend @therealdonald IMO

    Its going to cost lives if they dont shut this idiot down

    Or if they do!!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,935
    edited November 2020
    The security, intelligence and military relationship will continue. The political and cultural relationship, while Johnson and Biden are in power at the same time, will be different, that's all ; and that may also have implications for trade.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    DavidL said:

    Abandon ship, abandon ship. Women, children and senators first, not necessarily in that order.
    Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.

    It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.

    The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.

    If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
  • Why? Sounds rather British to me.
    Common wealth is communist ideology to a T.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359

    I understand that they are always insanely slow for some reason. I think it was the same in 2016.
    Vegas has a lot of nightlife apparently. I hear its like Blackpool, so they start work late and finish early....
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Spare a thought for poor Mike Pence, who will become the first VP since Dan Quayle to have to announce his loss on the floor of Congress.

    Unless he becomes President beforehand of course due a Trump flounce.

    I'd be interested to see a market on that. Is Trump really going to come to Biden's inauguration in January?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682

    Has always seemed to me that 'Commonwealth' sounds a bit communist.
    That well known Head of the Commonwealth says "Hello Comrade" ...
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    edited November 2020
    MrEd said:

    Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.

    It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.

    The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.

    If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
    That kind of dealing will not happen. Like Trump's secret powers to overturn the entire election by means of his son, Rudy & Grenell, the latter a man I could tell you some stories about. It would make the QAnon people take stock if they had the wit to do so.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    With the kind of people who see Brexit as both a mistake for the UK and contrary to rational US foreign policy objectives.
    But it's not going to be reversed for at least the next decade most likely, so it's a case of get on and work as well together as possible. The foreign policy aims of the UK and the US aren't too dissimilar if you take Brexit out of the equation. Take Belarus and the sanctions we imposed, while the EU is still squabbling over it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Perhaps cricket matches where one team wins by <10 runs should be decided by SCOTUS.</p>
    Hmm. We might have to give back both the 2005 Ashes and 2019 World Cup on that basis...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482
    RH1992 said:

    But it's not going to be reversed for at least the next decade most likely, so it's a case of get on and work as well together as possible. The foreign policy aims of the UK and the US aren't too dissimilar if you take Brexit out of the equation. Take Belarus and the sanctions we imposed, while the EU is still squabbling over it.
    Individual EU states imposed sanctions too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Stocky said:

    Masturbation?
    You sometimes surprise. But not always.

    Serious answer? Beekeeping. Imagine making your own honey.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    JACK_W said:

    That well known Head of the Commonwealth says "Hello Comrade" ...
    Oliver Cromwell?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Yokes said:

    That kind of dealing will not happen. Like Trump's secret powers to overturn the entire election by means of his son, Rudy & Grenell, the latter a man I could tell you some stories about. It would make the QAnon people take stock if they had the wit to do so.
    The key is "if they had the wit to do so", which they obviously don't. McConnell needs to think of something though because I think it is likely the Democrats pick up at least one of the two Senate seats in GA in January.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    MrEd said:

    The key is "if they had the wit to do so", which they obviously don't. McConnell needs to think of something though because I think it is likely the Democrats pick up at least one of the two Senate seats in GA in January.
    I agree with that I think they will gain at least 1 possibly both, There seems a real shift going on in GA, even though the vote this time is so close
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    does anyone know if Alaska have started counting their 150,000+ mail in ballots yet?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So what I'm looking forward to next is people misunderstanding statistics and thinking because the result is like within like .4% that a recount could easily over turn it without discovering a massive systemic fuck up.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    I'd be interested to see a market on that. Is Trump really going to come to Biden's inauguration in January?
    No, but he might tweet his thoughts about it on the day
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    I don’t think you are as funny or good at delivery as you think!

    I only asked if it was weird or out of context. If you’re happy for old blokes to touch your kids like that it’s your call.
    Of course it is creepy. It is deeply creepy. It was creepy when it was brought up last year. It is still creepy now.

    It was one of the many, many reasons I incorrectly thought Biden wouldn't even make it to Iowa let alone get the Nom. However it turns out America loves creepy old guys. 🤷‍♂️

    I know you are hurting at the moment, your man couldn't do it. I feel for you. My recommendation is to take the L and move on. Try not to obsess about the one that got away.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    MrEd said:

    Although Toomey is stepping down anyway so doesn't have much to lose.

    It will be those that do whose reaction is more important. Why Graham's move is so important.

    The wider context - and why you might get the Republican establishment line up with Trump - is that the Senate also looks as though it's on the line. Losing Trump is one thing, losing the Senate in addition is not something McConnell will want.

    If I was entirely cynical, and let's say AZ goes to Biden, I'd might argue McConnell would suggest to Biden that he will ease Trump out in return for the Republicans finding a few extra votes in Georgia and Perdue being re-elected (and possibly the state).
    Didn't Graham make a speech pledging to support Trump pretty much fully? Though i saw something last night from him
  • MrEd said:

    The key is "if they had the wit to do so", which they obviously don't. McConnell needs to think of something though because I think it is likely the Democrats pick up at least one of the two Senate seats in GA in January.
    I'm not sure it's that likely. Perdue was very close to the threshold, appears to have some incumbency benefit, with Ossoff running behind Biden. And Loeffler was damaged by the campaign between her and Collins being brutal and requiring her to burnish her right wing credentials in a way that favoured Warnock. She is never going to be a moderate, but can tack back and focus her fire on the Democrats rather than her colleague.

    They are both tempting possibilities for the Democrats for sure, but I think on balance it is more likely that both seats will stay Republican in a much lower turnout run-off.
  • Mal557 said:

    No, but he might tweet his thoughts about it on the day
    Given it's the day he ceases to benefit from Twitter's light-touch policy on suspensions/bans for world leaders, I suppose he might as well enjoy it while he still can.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    MaxPB said:

    ONS survey still correlates to daily case data very well. The R in NW, NE, London, Scotland, SE and NI is now below 1. This is before lockdown was even being contemplated.

    We we're forced into it using dodgy data and models from substandard scientists.

    Yep - Saturdays briefing is going to be a problem for those responsible. There is a clear need to tell the truth in these things when talking to the public. Politicians may not see through the bullsh1t but there are enough of us out in the public that will. I really think Vallance and Whitty should apologise for this to the nation, but I doubt they will.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    alex_ said:

    So having created a new set of restrictions (the Tier system) which there may have been hope of people sticking to consistently over a reasonable period and which was possibly having the intended effect - we have instead launched into an economically and socially unsustainable set of restrictions which are creating the circumstances for a future acceleration in the virus when they are lifted in a few weeks time and everyone pours out of their houses in relief at the return of their social freedom...
    Of course, four weeks will have a decent effect, allow the 'more normal' Christmas to happen followed by a jan lockdown as the number soar again. At least we should be rolling on vaccines by then.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    Drutt said:

    I have played in a Thursday night knockabout 20:20 with absolutely nothing resting on the outcome of the game where the scorer was asked to do a re-count. His result (we were 2 short) was correct but about half a dozen batsmen berated him for putting runs down as byes or leg byes when they all said they "clearly hit it, I remember that one, it went wide of fine leg, mate, come on, can't you hear willow on leather? Look, I know I hit it and my season average is going to say so too"
    Played in a similar game years ago. We needed x to win from the last over, reached it with the last ball, so won. Later in the pub, the losing team tried to argue that because the book was wrong, it was actually a tie. Bollocks, say we, if we'd needed x+1, we would have scored x+1... And just for a friendly too...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Yep - Saturdays briefing is going to be a problem for those responsible. There is a clear need to tell the truth in these things when talking to the public. Politicians may not see through the bullsh1t but there are enough of us out in the public that will. I really think Vallance and Whitty should apologise for this to the nation, but I doubt they will.
    Still leaves open the possibility of the lockdown being eased a week or 10 days early. Boris gets us into the Christmas mood early. "Gawd bless yer, Guv, and no mistake...."
This discussion has been closed.