The problem for the GOP is that they either have to excise the ghost of Trumpism by taking on the cult, or they have to get all aboard that particular train and subscribe to the loony, reality-denying and ultra-authoritarian sympathies of those groups. It will be very hard to walk that line. In the last 4 years they’ve been able to get them on board because they have a madman at their head who inspires near reverent devotion from them. Without him, what do they do? Who leads?
This is why Trump 2024 has a not-insignificant chance of happening. Personally I don’t think he’ll do it, he’ll just continue to stir the grievances like a king over the water, but it’s possible.
EDIT: I should also point out that (and sorry to be blunt) that Trump has a not insubstantial chance of either being in jail, too ill or dead by 2024. He’s an overweight man in his 70s whose main diet is McDonald’s and milkshakes. Say what you want about Joe Biden and his mental slowdown but physically he’s in much better shape.
It is all about how they tackle QAnon. They have QAnon congresspeople and QAnon state-level reps now.
IF they let QAnon fester they are super fucked.
You are assuming a level of control they do not have. There is not much "let" involved here. QAnon spreads because its an addictive virus.
The problem for the GOP is that they either have to excise the ghost of Trumpism by taking on the cult, or they have to get all aboard that particular train and subscribe to the loony, reality-denying and ultra-authoritarian sympathies of those groups. It will be very hard to walk that line. In the last 4 years they’ve been able to get them on board because they have a madman at their head who inspires near reverent devotion from them. Without him, what do they do? Who leads?
This is why Trump 2024 has a not-insignificant chance of happening. Personally I don’t think he’ll do it, he’ll just continue to stir the grievances like a king over the water, but it’s possible.
EDIT: I should also point out that (and sorry to be blunt) that Trump has a not insubstantial chance of either being in jail, too ill or dead by 2024. He’s an overweight man in his 70s whose main diet is McDonald’s and milkshakes. Say what you want about Joe Biden and his mental slowdown but physically he’s in much better shape.
It is all about how they tackle QAnon. They have QAnon congresspeople and QAnon state-level reps now.
IF they let QAnon fester they are super fucked.
You are assuming a level of control they do not have. There is not much "let" involved here. QAnon spreads because its an addictive virus.
Do you remember Luther Blissets miss against Denmark? I guess he was destined To be remembered for something else.
We are asking why Trump has got so many votes but why aren't we asking why Biden also got so many votes?
Because we expected people to come out and vote against Trump, but Trump also seems to have become more popular in the last 4 years. It's unexpected
The economy, particularly the stock market, is underestimated in the UK view of US politics. People here dont have the same level of share ownership, and what they do have is mostly in pensions they dont track or understand.
Brexit Party show the biggest increase with women, up 50%, when will people start taking these polls seriously!?!
Labour iwthin 10 of the Tories in the "south outside London", with three times the LIbDem rating. Interesting problem for tactical anti-Tory voters in May to decide whether to vote on the results last time or the current polls.
LDs have been completely anonymous in 2020. They have a lot of work to do to become relevant.
Not doing much round here. Greens are making a lot of the running. Funnily enough, the local Tory CCouncillor has come out of the woodwork. 2021 elections must be on!
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Brexit Party show the biggest increase with women, up 50%, when will people start taking these polls seriously!?!
Labour iwthin 10 of the Tories in the "south outside London", with three times the LIbDem rating. Interesting problem for tactical anti-Tory voters in May to decide whether to vote on the results last time or the current polls.
LDs have been completely anonymous in 2020. They have a lot of work to do to become relevant.
Not doing much round here. Greens are making a lot of the running. Funnily enough, the local Tory CCouncillor has come out of the woodwork. 2021 elections must be on!
Its community litter picks from your local political team as far as the eye can see round my way. The streets will gleam, for a bit.
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
That's confirmation bias. Some Trumpers no doubt feel that way, but there was also a lot of error in college graduate support for Trump:
"This may explain why the polls didn’t do badly in predicting the white non-graduate vote but failed miserably among white graduates. According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right."
Thanks for sharing the article as it's interesting, but labelling it as being about Wokeness is highly misleading. It's about taboo opinions, at some points incorrectly called political correctness in the article (but arguably PC has come to mean that). Wokness is something completely different.
The arguments made in the article, both about shy trumpers and about non-responders, are familiar and mostly dismissed here. But the argument is made quite well. To take one example: the lack of difference between phone and online polls may not refute the shy trumper theory.
But it's worth pointing out that the election hasn't been as horrendous for the pollsters as we initially thought.
Wokeness is about taboo opinions - because it's about being seen to be 'Woke' to intersectional injustice and therefore you must say and nod along to the right things in professional circles.
This absolutely affects me in the UK. I work for an extremely Woke company where my views on identity politics, Brexit and the Conservatives would sink my career like a stone if they knew about them - so I keep my mouth shut, whilst quietly and privately working against it in the background, and voting accordingly.
That's partly why I come on here to let off steam.
You're welcome.
It's entirely possible to both be alert to racial injustice (i.e. woke), and hold taboo (e.g. anti-immigration) opinions that might get you in trouble at work. I doubt it's even rare.
Mashing together distinct concepts, just because they are associated with one part of the political spectrum and hence correlated, is a barrier to understanding.
Woke is not merely being "alert to racial injustice" (though the term may have originated as such). It is to be obsessed with it, when real or imagined, and to view the world in terms of distinct groups, including groupings by skin colour, rather than as as individuals, and to elevate these groups as victims whether they want to be classified as such or not. And to go on to bully and seek to destroy (literally) via social media those who dare to challenge. And to try to change liberal democracies by creating moralistic and sinister new norms by the use of techniques such as no-platforming and other restraining of free speech. If they could extend this to thought-policing they would. It is illogical, delusional and dangerous.
In one work place, they had an American HR lady, would made stirring up trouble in bizarre ways a fetish. She certainly didn't understand UK employment law - and broke it several times.
Her pinnacle of stupidity was to claim that protecting employees from bullying by other employees was "anti-feminist" - because women bullying other women is a right or something.
As I`ve posted before, I`ve come to believe that some (only some) on the hard left, the woke left if you like, don`t hold a logical, philosophically justifiable position. (I`ve even heard it "argued" that logic and philosophy is "white male thinking".)
All ideologies are internally inconsistent when you look under the hood, but for these people I`d say that their beliefs are best understood as a psychological-state rather than as a bona fide ideology. And though they are a small minority they are getting traction; social media, public shaming and generating fear are their friends.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
Well they did and did and will probably win because of that
I think one of the big "what if's" of the campaign might turn out to be Brad Parscale going mental and having to be replaced by Bill Stepien who is a more "traditional" Republican campaign manager. I suspect someone like Parscale may have picked up what was going on quicker in places like GA.
It's only laughable if you expect differently. This is absolutely normal in the US and would be entirely unremarkable but for the fact that so many of the presidential races at a state level are so close. If PA had called on Tuesday, no-one would have cared how long NC took.
We are asking why Trump has got so many votes but why aren't we asking why Biden also got so many votes?
Yes, it's the biggest vote total of any US president ever – that's not an inconsequential statistic.
And as a percentage of the electorate, the biggest for more than a century.
I think people aren't discussing it much because there's an obvious explanation, who we happily won't have to discuss for much longer.
But it's true that there may be other factors, e.g. that Biden did a very good job of avoiding being unpalatable to the widest section of the electorate who dislike Trump.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
I think if I were Joe Biden, the first thing I would do is gather the leaders of the G7 and work out a new accord which allows countries to cancel all debt related to the virus. So any additional borrowing for job protection etc...
Right now western nations are saddled with an additional 15-20% of GDP in debt, and it's actually pretty uniform. Agreeing a global initiative for debt cancellation makes a lot of sense given that the whole world has been caught in it and the majority of it is owed to central banks.
If you owe the debt to your own central bank why does it matter whether you cancel it or not?
It doesn't at least if QE is never unwound. There's still a slim chance the QE gets unwound and then those central banks have to unload the debt to the markets or the refinancing bonds are sold to the markets.
Doing it collectively basically says "this isn't a default".
FYI, and I can't give away sources, but what was said before about the Trump campaign finding it difficult to get lawyers to represent them is true. Many firms are worried about being blacklisted by clients.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
We are asking why Trump has got so many votes but why aren't we asking why Biden also got so many votes?
Because we expected people to come out and vote against Trump, but Trump also seems to have become more popular in the last 4 years. It's unexpected
The economy, particularly the stock market, is underestimated in the UK view of US politics. People here dont have the same level of share ownership, and what they do have is mostly in pensions they dont track or understand.
And people's aspirations of upward mobility are greater and more widespread than in the UK.
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
FYI, and I can't give away sources, but what was said before about the Trump campaign finding it difficult to get lawyers to represent them is true. Many firms are worried about being blacklisted by clients.
Judging by his track record of lawyers and associates ending up in prison, that should be their main worry!
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
How much is all this costing though PT? Brexit was supposed to save us money.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
That's confirmation bias. Some Trumpers no doubt feel that way, but there was also a lot of error in college graduate support for Trump:
"This may explain why the polls didn’t do badly in predicting the white non-graduate vote but failed miserably among white graduates. According to a Pew survey on October 9, Trump was leading Biden by 21 points among white non-graduates but trailing him by 26 points among white graduates. Likewise, a Politico/ABC poll on October 11 found that ‘Trump leads by 26 points among white voters without four-year college degrees, but Biden holds a 31-point lead with white college graduates.’
The exit polls, however, show that Trump ran even among white college graduates 49-49, and even had an edge among white female graduates of 50-49! This puts pre-election surveys out by a whopping 26-31 points among white graduates. By contrast, among whites without degrees, the actual tilt in the election was 64-35, a 29-point gap, which the polls basically got right."
Thanks for sharing the article as it's interesting, but labelling it as being about Wokeness is highly misleading. It's about taboo opinions, at some points incorrectly called political correctness in the article (but arguably PC has come to mean that). Wokness is something completely different.
The arguments made in the article, both about shy trumpers and about non-responders, are familiar and mostly dismissed here. But the argument is made quite well. To take one example: the lack of difference between phone and online polls may not refute the shy trumper theory.
But it's worth pointing out that the election hasn't been as horrendous for the pollsters as we initially thought.
Wokeness is about taboo opinions - because it's about being seen to be 'Woke' to intersectional injustice and therefore you must say and nod along to the right things in professional circles.
This absolutely affects me in the UK. I work for an extremely Woke company where my views on identity politics, Brexit and the Conservatives would sink my career like a stone if they knew about them - so I keep my mouth shut, whilst quietly and privately working against it in the background, and voting accordingly.
That's partly why I come on here to let off steam.
You're welcome.
It's entirely possible to both be alert to racial injustice (i.e. woke), and hold taboo (e.g. anti-immigration) opinions that might get you in trouble at work. I doubt it's even rare.
Mashing together distinct concepts, just because they are associated with one part of the political spectrum and hence correlated, is a barrier to understanding.
Woke is not merely being "alert to racial injustice" (though the term may have originated as such). It is to be obsessed with it, when real or imagined, and to view the world in terms of distinct groups, including groupings by skin colour, rather than as as individuals, and to elevate these groups as victims whether they want to be classified as such or not. And to go on to bully and seek to destroy (literally) via social media those who dare to challenge. And to try to change liberal democracies by creating moralistic and sinister new norms by the use of techniques such as no-platforming and other restraining of free speech. If they could extend this to thought-policing they would. It is illogical, delusional and dangerous.
In one work place, they had an American HR lady, would made stirring up trouble in bizarre ways a fetish. She certainly didn't understand UK employment law - and broke it several times.
Her pinnacle of stupidity was to claim that protecting employees from bullying by other employees was "anti-feminist" - because women bullying other women is a right or something.
As I`ve posted before, I`ve come to believe that some (only some) on the hard left, the woke left if you like, don`t hold a logical, philosophically justifiable position. (I`ve even heard it "argued" that logic and philosophy is "white male thinking".)
All ideologies are internally inconsistent when you look under the hood, but for these people I`d say that their beliefs are best understood as a psychological-state rather than as a bona fide ideology. And though they are a small minority they are getting traction; social media, public shaming and generating fear are their friends.
Yes - observing it, what struck me was that it was the opposite of creating a "safe space". A number of real, actual people are having their lives made miserable at work. Real, actual bullying. Stopping it seemed a moral duty - not forgetting the legal point of view!
FYI, and I can't give away sources, but what was said before about the Trump campaign finding it difficult to get lawyers to represent them is true. Many firms are worried about being blacklisted by clients.
..and perhaps also worried about having extremely weak cases to work from ;.)
So it begins... can we at least wait until January before the birther-esque right wing smears begin?
It began ages ago sadly.
A photo shared on social media allegedly shows Joe Biden inappropriately holding a boy’s face. The different posts feature a photo which shows Biden hugging a boy while kissing him on the forehead and holding his chin. Examples of the photo can be seen here and here .
The photo has not been edited, but it has been cropped and taken out of context. The image shows Joe Biden and his grandson Robert Hunter Biden II at Beau Biden’s funeral on June 6, 2015. Robert is one of the two children the late Beau Biden had with his wife Hallie Biden. Footage of the exact moment in which the picture was taken shows that Joe was comforting his grandson Robert, who had just lost his father.
Why. trying to follow Pennsylvania count is a big pile of arse
Two counties with a negative number of mail ballots to count.
My guess is that the original total to count was just those received and counted on election day, and the total counted is all of those plus at least some ballots received since, but the total to count has not been updated.
FYI, and I can't give away sources, but what was said before about the Trump campaign finding it difficult to get lawyers to represent them is true. Many firms are worried about being blacklisted by clients.
They may also be worried about being paid: Trump has a bit of a reputation as a poor payer.
Why. trying to follow Pennsylvania count is a big pile of arse
Two counties with a negative number of mail ballots to count.
My guess is that the original total to count was just those received and counted on election day, and the total counted is all of those plus at least some ballots received since, but the total to count has not been updated.
Probably Trump ballots in all honesty given how late they've come in and which counties they are.
FYI, and I can't give away sources, but what was said before about the Trump campaign finding it difficult to get lawyers to represent them is true. Many firms are worried about being blacklisted by clients.
I think when Trumps crapping on democracy and peoples right to have their voice heard by voting, and those voiced may well be their future clients, most smart lawyers probably look at it and think,,,my in trays already full
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
Yeah, nothing to see here, just some temporary disruption.
But even if you take that Panglossian view, isn't it staggering, beyond anything ever seen of its sort before in this country, that we are blundering into the mess, entirely voluntarily, in the middle of a worldwide epidemic crisis, without the government having bothered to get even the vaguest rudiments of the administrative, physical, training, and computer-system preparations done?
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
Yes but once again we haven't planned for the contingencies we will be making it up as we go along while France and Co probably say - sorry the paperwork isn't right you can't get on the Ferry.
So it begins... can we at least wait until January before the birther-esque right wing smears begin?
It began ages ago sadly.
A photo shared on social media allegedly shows Joe Biden inappropriately holding a boy’s face. The different posts feature a photo which shows Biden hugging a boy while kissing him on the forehead and holding his chin. Examples of the photo can be seen here and here .
The photo has not been edited, but it has been cropped and taken out of context. The image shows Joe Biden and his grandson Robert Hunter Biden II at Beau Biden’s funeral on June 6, 2015. Robert is one of the two children the late Beau Biden had with his wife Hallie Biden. Footage of the exact moment in which the picture was taken shows that Joe was comforting his grandson Robert, who had just lost his father.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Hey I had my best ever betting night backing Trump or against Clinton in 2016. All Hail the LOOOSSSERRRR!
I have never bet against SWFC though even though they are shite
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
Yeah, nothing to see here, just some temporary disruption.
But even if you take that Panglossian view, isn't it staggering, beyond anything ever seen of its sort before in this country, that we are blundering into the mess, entirely voluntarily, in the middle of a worldwide epidemic crisis, without the government having bothered to get even the vaguest rudiments of the administrative, physical, training, and computer-system preparations done?
QTWAIN.
The pandemic is the perfect cover to get on with it. Support exists that wouldn't normally, transit is a fraction of the level it is normally. It will be easier to deal with disruption now than it would normally.
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
If Trump does not run again in 2024 then Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024 instead, one of the GOP ticket this year will therefore again be GOP candidate in 4 years time
Republicans may do better with a more centrist candidate to win back the suburbs. Are there any suggestions of others to challenge Pence in the Primaries?
His main rival at the moment is Donald Trump Jnr, with Haley a distant 3rd
In a year's time maybe Romney will have moved up. Haley would be alright. Surely there's some sort of Bush available?
Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is Texas Land Comissioner but would need to run for and win the Texas governorship in either 2022 or 2026 to be a contender for the GOP presidential nomination
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Don't self flagellate! Exchange of views there. All totally fine.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
We are asking why Trump has got so many votes but why aren't we asking why Biden also got so many votes?
Because we expected people to come out and vote against Trump, but Trump also seems to have become more popular in the last 4 years. It's unexpected
The economy, particularly the stock market, is underestimated in the UK view of US politics. People here dont have the same level of share ownership, and what they do have is mostly in pensions they dont track or understand.
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
How much is all this costing though PT? Brexit was supposed to save us money.
I'm sure it will. It will cost a fraction of the billions annually membership cost us.
Plus most disruption costs will be temporary whereas membership costs were permanently ongoing. There will be some permanent ongoing costs on processing customs etc but that won't be over ten billion a year.
Have we covered this? If not, read it, and weep at the damage the UK is doing to itself:
witter.com/pmdfoster/status/1324638263659892736
They almost have to have a crisis at the border to prove to Leave voters that Brexit has happened. It's the only way to head off Farage's claims that Brexit has been betrayed.
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
How much is all this costing though PT? Brexit was supposed to save us money.
I'm sure it will. It will cost a fraction of the billions annually membership cost us.
Plus most disruption costs will be temporary whereas membership costs were permanently ongoing. There will be some permanent ongoing costs on processing customs etc but that won't be over ten billion a year.
I feel like very slowly you are accepting Brexit is not going to be sunny uplands
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
It's hard to judge any of these without context, isn't it? In some of those, if he's just met the person he looks to be at least invading personal space. If he's well known to the person, it might be completely normal.
It's hard to believe that the GOP* haven't had people all over this looking for a clear-cut misdeed and presumably they came up blank (even given that their own man seems to have plenty of scantily-clad skeletons in the closet, finding convincing dirt on Biden might at least have suppressed his vote).
*and presumably his Democrat nomination rivals too, who could have forced him to pull out during the primaries if they'd found something juicy.
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
Blimey, ok.
You seriously think someone putting his arm around someone else while they're being photo'd is "dodgy"?
I've put my arm around people I don't know before while getting a photo together, I didn't realise it was "dodgy" to do so. Have you never? Should we burn everyone who's ever had a photo taken like that?
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
If Trump does not run again in 2024 then Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024 instead, one of the GOP ticket this year will therefore again be GOP candidate in 4 years time
Republicans may do better with a more centrist candidate to win back the suburbs. Are there any suggestions of others to challenge Pence in the Primaries?
His main rival at the moment is Donald Trump Jnr, with Haley a distant 3rd
In a year's time maybe Romney will have moved up. Haley would be alright. Surely there's some sort of Bush available?
Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is Texas Land Comissioner but would need to run for and win the Texas governorship in either 2022 or 2026 to be a contender for the GOP presidential nomination
Can I be the first to start the conspiracy theory that he was born in Mexico? Has anyone seen his birth certificate?
We are asking why Trump has got so many votes but why aren't we asking why Biden also got so many votes?
Because we expected people to come out and vote against Trump, but Trump also seems to have become more popular in the last 4 years. It's unexpected
The economy, particularly the stock market, is underestimated in the UK view of US politics. People here dont have the same level of share ownership, and what they do have is mostly in pensions they dont track or understand.
Stocks up quite a bit with a Biden win 😃
Its a curious one, Id assumed Biden win with Republican senate and court case was the worst scenario! Trump win would give the favourable tax and regulatory landscape, Biden win and Democratic senate would give big fiscal stimulus. Which of those would have driven the market down?
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
How much is all this costing though PT? Brexit was supposed to save us money.
I'm sure it will. It will cost a fraction of the billions annually membership cost us.
Plus most disruption costs will be temporary whereas membership costs were permanently ongoing. There will be some permanent ongoing costs on processing customs etc but that won't be over ten billion a year.
I feel like very slowly you are accepting Brexit is not going to be sunny uplands
I always said there would be pros and cons and there would be disruption.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
I think you have had a good few days MrEd. A full picture needs people filling in all the corners.
LOL!!!
Trump to win WRONG
Virginia GOP is value WRONG
You shouldn't follow Ralston in Nevada WRONG
Arizona will go GOP PROBABLY WRONG
Trump will carry Georgia WRONG
Colorado GOP is value WRONG
The maths on Biden winning Penn is wrong WRONG
Ah, all of that is a mere bagatelle. What gets me is his irrational championing of plain old History over Classics...
AZ still looks slightly in Biden's favour, Trumps late push isn't quite at the right rate though this state may represent the smallest winning margin of any state.
This is unfortunate as I thought it might be GA, though I still am good for a Dem win bet there.
We are asking why Trump has got so many votes but why aren't we asking why Biden also got so many votes?
Because we expected people to come out and vote against Trump, but Trump also seems to have become more popular in the last 4 years. It's unexpected
The economy, particularly the stock market, is underestimated in the UK view of US politics. People here dont have the same level of share ownership, and what they do have is mostly in pensions they dont track or understand.
And people's aspirations of upward mobility are greater and more widespread than in the UK.
The reality is that the UK (and most of the EU) are more socially mobile than the USA. I agree that it is a popular myth in the States though
This happens every US election, the obsession of the media with which order the president speaks to other leaders. That some national leaders similarly abase themselves is pathetic. It's the most powerful job in the world, but which order he speaks to people after the win doesn't mean jack squat. I'll remind again about Boris chumming it up with Trudeau and Macron having a laugh at Trump, of various leaders rolling out the red carpet to Trump. Order of phone calls? Give me a break.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I see @kinabalu is behaving with his usual grace. He's probably getting himself wired up before he goes out hunting for TERFs and burning JK Rowling's books.
Snide and wrong and disappointing.
Another one who is quite happy to dish it out and then cries about it when someone pushes back.
Anyway, we had a bet and I lost so I need to pay up. I remember it was Mermaids but would you just confirm?
"Dishing it out" and now "crying about it"? - hardly a fair description of what I posted! You are starting to sound like your vanquished hero. I wonder why.
Anyway, c'mon, it's just a politics forum. It's been a great ride, this WH2020, sounds like we both made good money on it, and everybody posts what they want to post.
On our bet, you are actually in the clear.
We had 2 bets of £25 each. The original bet I win since Trump has lost. But the 2nd bet was on the margin of his defeat. I said he would not get to 200 in the EC and he's looking like 232. So I lost that one.
Net net flat.
That's fair enough @kinabalu and look, I apologised and said I was wrong so I can say it again if it helps things/
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Don't self flagellate! Exchange of views there. All totally fine.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
Hey! I don`t think I talked you out of it. If I recall correctly I suggested selling a third at one price-point, and other third at another price-point and let the rest run. Anyway, you were wittering on about your bet insufferably at the time.
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
I called this last night.
270 to win.
And then it's over. The lifeforce will bleed from him in a blink of an eye.
I've been trying to say much the same thing to HYUFD, but he wouldn't have it. He seemed to think (or rather to know!) that Trump would return as president in 2024.
If Trump does not run again in 2024 then Pence will likely be the GOP nominee in 2024 instead, one of the GOP ticket this year will therefore again be GOP candidate in 4 years time
Republicans may do better with a more centrist candidate to win back the suburbs. Are there any suggestions of others to challenge Pence in the Primaries?
His main rival at the moment is Donald Trump Jnr, with Haley a distant 3rd
In a year's time maybe Romney will have moved up. Haley would be alright. Surely there's some sort of Bush available?
Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is Texas Land Comissioner but would need to run for and win the Texas governorship in either 2022 or 2026 to be a contender for the GOP presidential nomination
Can I be the first to start the conspiracy theory that he was born in Mexico? Has anyone seen his birth certificate?
Sleepy Joes middle name is Robinette, are we sure he is not a French sleeper? Perhaps explains the Kamala backers.
AZ still looks slightly in Biden's favour, Trumps late push isn't quite at the right rate though this state may represent the smallest winning margin of any state.
This is unfortunate as I thought it might be GA, though I still am good for a Dem win bet there.
Yokes! Have you seen the heat map thing with the little red circles and big blue circles for remaining votes? More blue ones than red ones in AZ. As per red mirage election the blue will report last I suspect.
In what way have we had "years of flirting with authoritarianism"? Horseshit.
It would be difficult to describe Johnson's flirtation with Trump any other way, I would say. It also goes back further, to May's flirtation with both Trump and Orban.
Comments
That all said, it's a lovely day for a slow and low barbecue in Durham.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/4464368
We shall see!
And yes, it's just a politics forum and we should not be slagging each other off.
I'm a bit like @bigjohnowls though - from a betting perspective, it would be really good if NC stayed GOP. Although I suspect I am feeling less dirty about it than he is
Wut
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1324638263659892736
Weren't they supposed to be wrapped up on the third to be passed on to the politicians according to the reports last week?
All ideologies are internally inconsistent when you look under the hood, but for these people I`d say that their beliefs are best understood as a psychological-state rather than as a bona fide ideology. And though they are a small minority they are getting traction; social media, public shaming and generating fear are their friends.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submerged_floating_tunnel
The Betfair Market will move as after this one there will only be circa 150k left I think
Current Prices 1.27/ 4.2
Take your choice money to be made either side.
I havent done the amount of detail I did in GA/PA when i got 1.6/1.5 but
I am going for the 1.27
https://youtu.be/ydYxocpZ0kM
I think people aren't discussing it much because there's an obvious explanation, who we happily won't have to discuss for much longer.
But it's true that there may be other factors, e.g. that Biden did a very good job of avoiding being unpalatable to the widest section of the electorate who dislike Trump.
(1) Does anyone here think that Biden won't take the lead in Pennsylvania by the time, say, 75,000 more votes (at the most) are reported?
(2) Does anyone here think Trump's implied probability on Betfair won't plummet when that happens?
Now they need to put a boot and a very heft parking ticket on that vehicle.
https://twitter.com/brhodes/status/1315290197421039616
Does the guy get any sleep
So if we need contingencies then deal with contingencies. Not the end of the world.
There may be some disruption but once the disruption is dealt with we will have achieved a substantial change. Get on with it - there are always teething issues with anything new, just get one with it and deal with them.
Trump to win WRONG
Virginia GOP is value WRONG
You shouldn't follow Ralston in Nevada WRONG
Arizona will go GOP PROBABLY WRONG
Trump will carry Georgia WRONG
Colorado GOP is value WRONG
The maths on Biden winning Penn is wrong WRONG
A photo shared on social media allegedly shows Joe Biden inappropriately holding a boy’s face. The different posts feature a photo which shows Biden hugging a boy while kissing him on the forehead and holding his chin. Examples of the photo can be seen here and here .
The photo has not been edited, but it has been cropped and taken out of context. The image shows Joe Biden and his grandson Robert Hunter Biden II at Beau Biden’s funeral on June 6, 2015. Robert is one of the two children the late Beau Biden had with his wife Hallie Biden. Footage of the exact moment in which the picture was taken shows that Joe was comforting his grandson Robert, who had just lost his father.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-holding-boys-head/false-claim-photo-shows-joe-biden-inappropriately-holding-boys-face-idUSKBN2103E2
My guess is that the original total to count was just those received and counted on election day, and the total counted is all of those plus at least some ballots received since, but the total to count has not been updated.
But even if you take that Panglossian view, isn't it staggering, beyond anything ever seen of its sort before in this country, that we are blundering into the mess, entirely voluntarily, in the middle of a worldwide epidemic crisis, without the government having bothered to get even the vaguest rudiments of the administrative, physical, training, and computer-system preparations done?
He's just a charming old man. The old American stereotype of American politicians "kissing babies" exists for a reason. There's nothing dodgy about it.
I have never bet against SWFC though even though they are shite
The pandemic is the perfect cover to get on with it. Support exists that wouldn't normally, transit is a fraction of the level it is normally. It will be easier to deal with disruption now than it would normally.
My buy at 28 of Biden EC supremacy (at £30 a point) is still open so to put it mildly I still have an interest in these counts. My decision not to cash out and sell at 100 a couple of weeks before the election does not go down as one of the great calls.
@Stocky talked me out of it. Said I'd be a wuss. That's Stocky for you. What are friends for?
Plus most disruption costs will be temporary whereas membership costs were permanently ongoing. There will be some permanent ongoing costs on processing customs etc but that won't be over ten billion a year.
As i say if they count them all 80k win imo
It's hard to believe that the GOP* haven't had people all over this looking for a clear-cut misdeed and presumably they came up blank (even given that their own man seems to have plenty of scantily-clad skeletons in the closet, finding convincing dirt on Biden might at least have suppressed his vote).
*and presumably his Democrat nomination rivals too, who could have forced him to pull out during the primaries if they'd found something juicy.
I've put my arm around people I don't know before while getting a photo together, I didn't realise it was "dodgy" to do so. Have you never? Should we burn everyone who's ever had a photo taken like that?
Its not like he was grabbing them by the pussy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html
I used to be a Remainer. I can see both sides.
This is unfortunate as I thought it might be GA, though I still am good for a Dem win bet there.
But he did congratulate Clinton, Obama, and Bush Jnr obviously, when they won.