Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
That would be almost rational, and therefore very unlikely.
Apparently the lawyers begged him all day yesterday not to go on TV. He did, and that seems to have pushed at least some of the GOP over the edge.
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
I suspect the overseas/military ballots will be small in number. I’d also think the majority of US Military ballots would be in early (and therefore counted) since their forces organise big voting days on their bases well in advance. Provisionals (and there don’t look to be that many) might be more R leaning due to on the day stuff, but Abrams has been going in hard on Get Out The Ballot Cure so that may end up favouring dems. That’s quite marginal stuff though. Biden is looking at 3-4k once Fulton and Gwinnett report which should be enough to survive most of the shit the GOP will throw. Especially given how lamesauce their challenges have been.
Also - judging from the PA SoS presser yesterday - it seems that the mail-in votes have come in quicker than usual. All the publicity from the Reps about challenging the process and hindering USPS may have got the vote in early.
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
They may yet. But if all this Trump histrionic theatre is to whip up his followers to join his crusade on a new media channel, it makes more sense - albeit, at the risk of provoking some at the extremes into armed conflict. He's been a Democrat, he's been a Republican - maybe his next incarnation is as an independent, "standing up for those The System is designed to silence."
Looked at in that light, his actions betray a level of cunning. I reckon he could convince millions to follow him, fund him, in the way of American televangelists. The next stage of his HPD.
(*Histrionic personality disorder (HPD) is defined by the American Psychiatric Association as a personality disorder characterized by a pattern of excessive attention-seeking behaviors, usually beginning in early childhood, including inappropriate seduction and an excessive desire for approval.)
I think this is genuinely what a 90% chance for Biden looks like. Some utterly dogshit polling, yet Biden still will win.
That was my logic in saying that Trump needed snake eyes to win. Simply the margin was so massive and turnout was so massive that even if the polls were wrong there was enough of a buffer for Biden to win.
In the end once the votes are all counted this is a fairly comprehensive and comfortable victory for Biden.
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
See Nixons pardon - it covered any potential federal crimes.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
This is going to court even if Bidens win is bigger than Trumps in 2016. Pence, Graham, Cruz etc arent quitting before the rulings. How confident is everyone in Kavanaugh et al?
If AZ and NV hold and Biden also ends up with PA and GA, surely they'll give up the ghost?
Why? Trump is a narcissist who has been in court all his life. He has a non zero chance of the SC ruling his way however frivolous, which would make him President. If he loses in court it re-enforces his view it was cheated from him.
Alternatively he is facing a potential battle to avoid jail. His surrogates know Trump can and will destroy their careers with one tweet, they are tied in to him.
McConnell is the interesting one, who would likely have power regardless but doubt him alone changes much.
An interesting question is when will foreign leaders start ringing Biden to congratulate him. Will they start when the networks call the race or will they wait for the lawsuits to be resolved?
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
Pre emptive pardon for acts which may or not have been committed .
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
Pre emptive pardon for acts which may or not have been committed .
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
Pre emptive pardon for acts which may or not have been committed .
Yeah, but it's surely a happy memory now. If that penalty goes in, and you beat Palace in the final, you almost certainly don't win the PL in 2015-16.
Leicester are a great team to support. You can never predict what happens next!
Flying high at the moment, and thrashed Braga last night. The match with Pool on 21st could be a tasty top of the table fixture. Fofana was a great signing, as were Under and Castagne. Need a back up for Vardy though, as even when he doesn't score, he disrupts defences so our midfield can.
Rogers teams always seem to fade second half of the season though, so my inherent pessimism will continue. 🙄
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
I'm not sure they are though. Lindsay Graham's donation of $500K sends a strong signal that the Republican establishment is, for now, standing behind him even if they don't want to say that publicly.
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
Americans are not like Europeans in enjoying the game and appreciating form. They like winners and they have little sympathy for losers. That was told to me by a well known sports person I was working with and surprising though it sounds I think it's right
Yes. American sports are almost never allowed to finish in a draw. They always have some form of ‘overtime’ so there’s a winner and a loser on the day, and one set of fans get to leave happy.
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
See Nixons pardon - it covered any potential federal crimes.
Any pardon will only cover Federal crimes. Doesn't effect State level prosecutions. NY has a long, long list of charges waiting for Jan 21st, for example.
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
See Nixons pardon - it covered any potential federal crimes.
Any pardon will only cover Federal crimes. Doesn't effect State level prosecutions. NY has a long, long list of charges waiting for Jan 21st, for example.
Indeed, but better to be facing charges from a few states than a few states and the feds.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
I'm not sure they are though. Lindsay Graham's donation of $500K sends a strong signal that the Republican establishment is, for now, standing behind him even if they don't want to say that publicly.
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
Americans are not like Europeans in enjoying the game and appreciating form. They like winners and they have little sympathy for losers. That was told to me by a well known sports person I was working with and surprising though it sounds I think it's right
Yes. American sports are almost never allowed to finish in a draw. They always have some form of ‘overtime’ so there’s a winner and a loser on the day, and one set of fans get to leave happy.
Yes they could never have a pools lottery in the US. Only the British could come up with a jackpot based on getting a lot of draws
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
In front of your eyes. But those of his supporters, who feel cheated? Not so sure....
It's interesting, I had thought in the case of a loss the GOP would smoothly dump Trump and move on. But today I am not so sure.
They may yet. But if all this Trump histrionic theatre is to whip up his followers to join his crusade on a new media channel, it makes more sense - albeit, at the risk of provoking some at the extremes into armed conflict. He's been a Democrat, he's been a Republican - maybe his next incarnation is as an independent, "standing up for those The System is designed to silence."
Looked at in that light, his actions betray a level of cunning. I reckon he could convince millions to follow him, fund him, in the way of American televangelists. The next stage of his HPD.
(*Histrionic personality disorder (HPD) is defined by the American Psychiatric Association as a personality disorder characterized by a pattern of excessive attention-seeking behaviors, usually beginning in early childhood, including inappropriate seduction and an excessive desire for approval.)
I think it is about building a pocket universe where he is the victor. Where he doesn't have to confront losing.
The adulation, money etc are just the side effect....
A staightforward extrapolation based on Biden's lead in the last 50k votes would take his lead to 4-5k.
5k votes in 5m, 0.1% in it!
What’s the local rule about recounts in GA? Don’t see how they’re not going to have to count them all again.
It will go to a recount. There will also be provisional and military ballots to count. It will take time. But Biden has this if his margin is above 2k I think.
We are essentially waiting for the inevitable now. We just need PA now. If it’s narrow but clear, the networks can call it.
I think provisionals and military won’t break massively for Biden but could edge the win up a useful amount. It could be 10K in the end. Can you say that’s definitely wrong?
I suspect the overseas/military ballots will be small in number. I’d also think the majority of US Military ballots would be in early (and therefore counted) since their forces organise big voting days on their bases well in advance. Provisionals (and there don’t look to be that many) might be more R leaning due to on the day stuff, but Abrams has been going in hard on Get Out The Ballot Cure so that may end up favouring dems. That’s quite marginal stuff though. Biden is looking at 3-4k once Fulton and Gwinnett report which should be enough to survive most of the shit the GOP will throw. Especially given how lamesauce their challenges have been.
Also - judging from the PA SoS presser yesterday - it seems that the mail-in votes have come in quicker than usual. All the publicity from the Reps about challenging the process and hindering USPS may have got the vote in early.
In Georgia it seems to have totally and royally pissed off the African-American population. Voter suppression needs to be subtle and have a thin veneer of respectability, which is why the GOP were good at it. When you do stupid, flagrant bullshit you let voters know what’s up and they’ll vote just to spite you.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
I'm not sure they are though. Lindsay Graham's donation of $500K sends a strong signal that the Republican establishment is, for now, standing behind him even if they don't want to say that publicly.
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
Americans are not like Europeans in enjoying the game and appreciating form. They like winners and they have little sympathy for losers. That was told to me by a well known sports person I was working with and surprising though it sounds I think it's right
Yes. American sports are almost never allowed to finish in a draw. They always have some form of ‘overtime’ so there’s a winner and a loser on the day, and one set of fans get to leave happy.
The baseball match I went to seemed more like a variety show, with little bits of sport in the intervals. And half the stadium started leaving well before the end; the guy next to me said the traffic is so bad at the end that many of the fans record the last round and watch it when they get back home.
Just to repeat my early morning observartion. Alaska is on a knife edge
There are 16000 early votes to count. The existing early vote split 51/49 to Biden There are 116,730 mail votes to count. None have been counted
Biden is behind by 54,610
If the mail ballots split 74/26 then Biden wins.
No mail ballots have been counted.
Winning or getting close in Alaska would be completely inconsequential for the purposes of the wider election but will be hugely significant in the context of wider Democratic morale.
Apparently Extinction Rebellion are throwing a wobbler about some citizen's assembly in Scotland. Thety do make claims about it being blinkered and not able to do radical enough things, but there's also these ones/
Despite initially being open to the assembly setting its own ambitions the secretariat has started to insist that any recommendations are actionable by the Scottish government, XR claims.
And the civil servants seconded to the assembly use "government processes, ways of working and attitudes towards the scale of the crisis"
Recommendations to be actionable? Government processes by civil servants? My gods, the horror!
Reckon John King is pressing his shirt and picking out a nice tie as we speak – after his requisite two hours' sleep per 14-hour shift.
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
They can be on all day and still look as well put together as if they've just stepped into the studio.
Just to repeat my early morning observartion. Alaska is on a knife edge
There are 16000 early votes to count. The existing early vote split 51/49 to Biden There are 116,730 mail votes to count. None have been counted
Biden is behind by 54,610
If the mail ballots split 74/26 then Biden wins.
No mail ballots have been counted.
Winning or getting close in Alaska would be completely inconsequential for the purposes of the wider election but will be hugely significant in the context of wider Democratic morale.
Biden and the Senate candidate currently have almost identical numbers.
Winning the Senate seat would be HUUUUUUUUUUUUGE but would require the mail vote to split 76/24 I think.
Looking at those tables you almost wonder whether NC is in play??
DEM is 6.4 on Betfair...
Its ridiculous that we're not getting any counting in NC.
When the Needle stopped Biden wasn't out of the count yet in NC, indeed at one stage the Needle gave Georgia more to Trump than it was showing in NC when it stopped.
Not really - the key evidence in the article is from Luntz, and he was on TV last night explaining that many Trumpers think polling is part of some conspiracy and dont respond to the questions - as it says in the article. So very little to do with 'wokeness' and more to do with Republican base paranoia and all the QAnon crap.
If they are like early voting then it is a huge Trump win. If they split like Penn then Biden wins.
At a guess, mail-in voting in Alaska is a lot more common because of the geography and climate. Therefore the considerations that have pitched it Biden's way in other states wont apply.
Fox is transfixed by stories of 'irregularities' from PA, while GA may steal the story....
Fox is absolutely sh1t scared Trump is going to start his own TV channel and wreck their audience. The US TV market is not great anyway and seeing half of your audience disappear off would be catastrophic. Plus Lachlan is not as good as Rupert
Well, having near half of America sure they were robbed of their rightful President is going to give him one hell of a potential audience. If he proves to be a better TV magnate than President, it probably gives the Republican party more nightmares than the Democrats. They ain't ever healing.
The humiliation will be huge as will watching his acolytes desert him. Nothing worse for someone with his ego being yesterday's man. You could see him diminish in front of your eyes even last night
I'm not sure they are though. Lindsay Graham's donation of $500K sends a strong signal that the Republican establishment is, for now, standing behind him even if they don't want to say that publicly.
I mentioned on here pre-election that many establishment Republicans thought the Democrats would try and steal the election through VBM. We can scoff at them from here but that is their thought process and that is what counts. If the GA run-offs go both Dem, then they will control all three chambers effectively (although both the House and the Senate are on shaky grounds).
Americans are not like Europeans in enjoying the game and appreciating form. They like winners and they have little sympathy for losers. That was told to me by a well known sports person I was working with and surprising though it sounds I think it's right
Yes. American sports are almost never allowed to finish in a draw. They always have some form of ‘overtime’ so there’s a winner and a loser on the day, and one set of fans get to leave happy.
Yes they could never have a pools lottery in the US. Only the British could come up with a jackpot based on getting a lot of draws
Imagine explaining Test Cricket to an American - play for five days and still end in a draw.
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
I think he takes it. There are a few thousand votes left (not sure how many) and the gap is in the triple figures now. I suspect he’ll do it by 1000 or so, maybe even more.
Thank goodness Biden is going to win PA - I would have been VERY nervous if the election had come to down to GA given the past behaviour of the GOP there.
I think Biden wins too just but as I understand it theres still the military ones to come in so if its just a few hundred lead for Biden it could change things, not sure how many M ones there are though, few thousand at least I think?
I’m not sure they would make a huge difference: I think they broke for Clinton last time and after some of Trump’s remarks I’m not sure he will do any better this time.
It's hard to call, Trump says offensive shit about war heroes etc, OTOH he hasn't sent them off to any new wars, and this time he seems to be doing better than before with both low-education white people and black people.
But the US forces aren’t low education, they also don’t like their officers dragged of their ship for trying to protect the crew from covid.
Aren't they low-education? Sorry, maybe you're right, I haven't looked it up. I figured most of the numbers were people who graduated High School then went straight into a job (the military) which for most values of $job is a very Trumpish demographic, but maybe I'm out-of-date.
Apart from the obvious patriotic motivations, US military vets get major post discharge benefits on housing, health and Education. The latter includes free College tuition in your home state.
Macnamara's morons are history.
Yes; I worked for a global tech firm with lots of very clever American ex-forces types who'd graduated on Uncle Sam's dollar. I understand we in Britain are better at this than we used to be but I still remember being shocked 20-odd years ago when overhearing homeless (and sometimes disabled) guys discussing problems with their military pensions.
Apparently Extinction Rebellion are throwing a wobbler about some citizen's assembly in Scotland. Thety do make claims about it being blinkered and not able to do radical enough things, but there's also these ones/
Despite initially being open to the assembly setting its own ambitions the secretariat has started to insist that any recommendations are actionable by the Scottish government, XR claims.
And the civil servants seconded to the assembly use "government processes, ways of working and attitudes towards the scale of the crisis"
Recommendations to be actionable? Government processes by civil servants? My gods, the horror!
Am I being overly cynical to think that Trump might play a card where he screams “fraud and conspiracy” and then announces he is stepping down and handing over to Pence until the matters are fully investigated so he cannot he accused of using his power as president unfairly, but the reality is that he does it so Pence has a couple of months as president to Pardon Trump and family and Donald can fck off to Florida and play golf rather than deal with handover.
He gets benefit of looking like he was “trying to do the right thing”, doesn’t actually have to sit there and handover but gets the Pardon which is most important thing......
But how can he be pardoned if he has not been charged with anything?
Pre emptive pardon for acts which may or not have been committed .
The whole issue of pardoning looks suspect to me. And someone posted Ford's of Nixon's, and it's hilarious, basically seeming to say that since he gave up the presidency that's punishment, so actually punishing him for any crimes would be 'degrading'.
If they are like early voting then it is a huge Trump win. If they split like Penn then Biden wins.
One thing to mention is Biden doesn’t have the demographic advantage in Alaska. There’s no huge, racially diverse cities to count. That said, even if non-diverse counties he’s been posting strong mail in numbers elsewhere, but I suspect the split will not be quite as heavily Dem up there.
Looking at those tables you almost wonder whether NC is in play??
DEM is 6.4 on Betfair...
Its ridiculous that we're not getting any counting in NC.
When the Needle stopped Biden wasn't out of the count yet in NC, indeed at one stage the Needle gave Georgia more to Trump than it was showing in NC when it stopped.
I read that the unreported votes in NC were votes that had been issued but not yet returned, and that was why there was no counting going on. Is that not right?
Reckon John King is pressing his shirt and picking out a nice tie as we speak – after his requisite two hours' sleep per 14-hour shift.
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
They can be on all day and still look as well put together as if they've just stepped into the studio.
Reckon John King is pressing his shirt and picking out a nice tie as we speak – after his requisite two hours' sleep per 14-hour shift.
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
They can be on all day and still look as well put together as if they've just stepped into the studio.
Sent up brilliantly in "Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy"
I see as Labour is now ahead consistently, polls don't matter, ok then!
Don't worry about the polls 3.5 years out. They mean little other than what the signal is today. Personally, I am however concerned by a complete lack of uptick from the LDs. A comfortable halfway house for disaffected Tories, I think would be helpful.
If as looks likely Biden is declared POTUS today, that might give you an idea of how we felt in 1997 after the expectation of Conservative victory after Conservative victory, etc. etc. was brushed away.
Looking at those tables you almost wonder whether NC is in play??
DEM is 6.4 on Betfair...
Its ridiculous that we're not getting any counting in NC.
When the Needle stopped Biden wasn't out of the count yet in NC, indeed at one stage the Needle gave Georgia more to Trump than it was showing in NC when it stopped.
I read that the unreported votes in NC were votes that had been issued but not yet returned, and that was why there was no counting going on. Is that not right?
I don't believe so, I believe they're waiting for all the votes to be returned before counting the remaining votes but they have mail in votes left to count (and more will have arrived already that could be counted already too). Its ridiculous to just stop for a week.
Reckon John King is pressing his shirt and picking out a nice tie as we speak – after his requisite two hours' sleep per 14-hour shift.
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
They can be on all day and still look as well put together as if they've just stepped into the studio.
Given the length of advert breaks in the US, they probably have time for a shower, a change of clothes and a three course meal
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
You're one of the few of us who held your nerve, and you will be handsomely rewarded for it as a consequence.
Great frame.
Indeed @Mysticrose congratulations and I hope you spend your winnings on something nice
MrEd, thanks for staying around when Trump was losing, unlike a lot who came on to gloat when it looked like Biden was done and disappeared when things changed.
We need the argument from both sides and you posted lots of argued analysis from the opposite perspective and in the end you were pretty well alone, which makes it a lot harder.
I was about to say I enjoyed your posts, but to be honest I often didn't because you often put a good argument that worried me.
Thank you.
Indeed, MrEd's point about Trump picking up hispanic votes seem to have turned out to be right.
I know posting what is, mmmm, a "non-consensual" view is not always easy. I also know there is a hell of a lot I don't know and that there are plenty of people on here who know far more about far many things than I did which is why I find I spend so much time on here For example, the @Alistair on PA made me hesitate about some bets I was considering.
So thank you everyone
Oh do stop it. Your stuff is absolutely fine but it is not "difficult" or "courageous" to write contra consensus posts on an internet forum. In fact watch me do it now -
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
To be fair he did say it was dangerous and wrong last night, although I agree most of the posts dont make that clear. I think its very useful to hear how the insiders think and I think Mr Ed has given that Trumpian view here better than anyone.
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
Reckon John King is pressing his shirt and picking out a nice tie as we speak – after his requisite two hours' sleep per 14-hour shift.
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
They can be on all day and still look as well put together as if they've just stepped into the studio.
Mine said similar. She was also astounded by how frequently King was in front of the camera over the last few days – "does that guy ever sleep?" she asked.
Looking at those tables you almost wonder whether NC is in play??
DEM is 6.4 on Betfair...
Its ridiculous that we're not getting any counting in NC.
When the Needle stopped Biden wasn't out of the count yet in NC, indeed at one stage the Needle gave Georgia more to Trump than it was showing in NC when it stopped.
I read that the unreported votes in NC were votes that had been issued but not yet returned, and that was why there was no counting going on. Is that not right?
I don't believe so, I believe they're waiting for all the votes to be returned before counting the remaining votes but they have mail in votes left to count (and more will have arrived already that could be counted already too). Its ridiculous to just stop for a week.
I believe the NC deadline for returning an eligible vote is Nov 12th? So no hurry, then.
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
Have a look at the article. The polls suggested a 7.5-8% lead, whereas he got a c.4% lead.
My wife made the point about how smartly dressed the CNN presenters are. They can be on the air for 14 hours and all just look incredibly smart, hair smart etc
Interesting. My wife made a not particularly complimentary comparison between Chris Cuomo's immaculate black suit and my oil stained jeans and tattered Jesus & Mary Chain t-shirt.
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
IBD/TIPP clearly didn't have a problem with "shy trumpers".
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
Have a look at the article. The polls suggested a 7.5-8% lead, whereas he got a c.4% lead.
The count hasn't finished yet.
Have the Californians finished counting? We're not talking about them but last time they continued to count for weeks, Trump was in the PV lead early on this time four years ago until the Californians bothered to count the vote. That 4% could go up more still.
Looking at those tables you almost wonder whether NC is in play??
DEM is 6.4 on Betfair...
Its ridiculous that we're not getting any counting in NC.
When the Needle stopped Biden wasn't out of the count yet in NC, indeed at one stage the Needle gave Georgia more to Trump than it was showing in NC when it stopped.
Comments
Apparently the lawyers begged him all day yesterday not to go on TV. He did, and that seems to have pushed at least some of the GOP over the edge.
Looked at in that light, his actions betray a level of cunning. I reckon he could convince millions to follow him, fund him, in the way of American televangelists. The next stage of his HPD.
(*Histrionic personality disorder (HPD) is defined by the American Psychiatric Association as a personality disorder characterized by a pattern of excessive attention-seeking behaviors, usually beginning in early childhood, including inappropriate seduction and an excessive desire for approval.)
In the end once the votes are all counted this is a fairly comprehensive and comfortable victory for Biden.
There are 16000 early votes to count. The existing early vote split 51/49 to Biden
There are 116,730 mail votes to count. None have been counted
Biden is behind by 54,610
If the mail ballots split 74/26 then Biden wins.
No mail ballots have been counted.
https://unherd.com/2020/11/meet-the-shy-trumpers/
Flying high at the moment, and thrashed Braga last night. The match with Pool on 21st could be a tasty top of the table fixture. Fofana was a great signing, as were Under and Castagne. Need a back up for Vardy though, as even when he doesn't score, he disrupts defences so our midfield can.
Rogers teams always seem to fade second half of the season though, so my inherent pessimism will continue. 🙄
There's an actual election going on right now that is far more interesting than midterm polls.
You called this wrong. You were correct and insightful on a vital point, that the Trump vote was underestimated, and particularly his appeal to Latinos and to a lesser extent Blacks. I've already hat-tipped that and again - nice one. But you were wrong on the big picture. He has not won the election. He has lost it convincingly in both the Popular Vote and the Electoral College.
You are imo an intelligent and articulate Trump fanboy who writes reams of artful puffery and occasionally, like the blind squirrel, stumbles on a nut. You also seem reluctant to call out this crap about fraud costing him the election and this is disappointing.
Once the votes are counted it looks relatively close to the polls - the big miss was in the Senate races not the Presidency and missing the Cuban American swing in Florida.
The adulation, money etc are just the side effect....
DEM is 6.4 on Betfair...
Despite initially being open to the assembly setting its own ambitions the secretariat has started to insist that any recommendations are actionable by the Scottish government, XR claims.
And the civil servants seconded to the assembly use "government processes, ways of working and attitudes towards the scale of the crisis"
Recommendations to be actionable? Government processes by civil servants? My gods, the horror!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54830823
They can be on all day and still look as well put together as if they've just stepped into the studio.
Winning the Senate seat would be HUUUUUUUUUUUUGE but would require the mail vote to split 76/24 I think.
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1324650607240765442?s=20
I suppose Trump could always represent himself in court.
When the Needle stopped Biden wasn't out of the count yet in NC, indeed at one stage the Needle gave Georgia more to Trump than it was showing in NC when it stopped.
If they are like early voting then it is a huge Trump win.
If they split like Penn then Biden wins.
I must say I'm starting to get tempted.
That would be something to see. He would probably complain that the Judge has a better seat than he does...
If as looks likely Biden is declared POTUS today, that might give you an idea of how we felt in 1997 after the expectation of Conservative victory after Conservative victory, etc. etc. was brushed away.
Your '97 will come, but not before 2024.
Alaska 2020 - Total votes so far 191,958
It is biased and often incorrect, needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, sometimes outright misleading, but the same could be said for most partisans.
I thought their "Trump looks like an obese turtle on his back knowing it will soon be over" was disgraceful
And not just to Obese Turtles!
Alaska is where survivalists go to hunker down.
The virus was being expunged by senior Republican politicians before our eyes I as drifted to sleep last night.
Neither did Ann Selzer.
Have the Californians finished counting? We're not talking about them but last time they continued to count for weeks, Trump was in the PV lead early on this time four years ago until the Californians bothered to count the vote. That 4% could go up more still.