Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
The other thing as I mentioned previously is that the longer Trump and his extreme supporters remain in denial the more it plays into the Democrat hands in the Georgia runoffs. A riven GOP is not good news for the Republicans especially if they get factional which I think looks a distinct possibility.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
This may seem sad to seasoned spread betters on here but when I bought Biden at 2.30 am at 262 ECVs I was shaking with fear. It was totally head over gut. My gut screamed not to do it because the markets were sliding away. But my head saw the suburban results and the c 5% swing to Biden from Clinton and I knew mentally that this had to be a great sign for him. But I've never ever in my life had such sheer terror with a bet. Looks good now but I really 'felt' I might come a cropper.
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know So I'm only reiterating your point: always bet with your head. Study the detail. And if you're spread betting, don't get drunk and DO stay up all through. You need to watch and react fast. Obvious points to many of you, I know.
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
The primary reason people voted for Trump is Law and Order.If the George Floyd murder had not happened i suspect Biden would have won by a landslide.People may be shocked by 60 plus million voting for Trump but the flipside of that is that others are shocked by the MSM's and others uncritical embrace of BLM . Plenty of Videos of BLM mobs expose them as violent bullies.If they were labelled 'right wing' the MSM would be calling them out for the fascist bullies those mobs often are Not a single Premier League footballer has rebelled against taking the knee despite the fact BLM has a manifesto that is anti-capitalist,anti nuclear family and anti the police.And yet very few media outlets are criticising the premier league for the lack of diversity of opinion within it. Personally i find both Trumps behaviour and the elites sycophancy to BLM both shocking .
Do you have any evidence for this? It's a bit early to put too much faith in the exit polls but I think they had Trump voters lead on the economy by quite a margin? Crime and safety was there but it doesn't seem to have been the main issue.
It arguably swayed *Latino* voters, Trump ran hard on it with them and it's easy to see why that would be a big deal for you if you've come from central America, but overall, not so much, and BLM-related issues may have helped Biden with black turnout as well.
It seems like yesterday that the big election news was whether or not Mitt Romney would end up with 47% of the vote after his jibe about the fact that 47% of Americans would never vote for him. Everyone was looking at Dave Wasserman's spreadsheet to keep up with the latest figures.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Certainly reading the BBC rolling coverage one would get very little idea of the arithmetic on which the optimism about Biden is based.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
Does it look to everyone else as though Pence is finally gearing up to invoke the 25th?
Is that not the only way he gets a pardon?
Perhaps. Looking at the way Trump and his family/team are behaving, it feels like only a matter of time until they have to have him removed. He isn't going to accept defeat when that defeat is so obviously* a result of fraud. So he'll refuse. And then they'll remove him.
BETTING POST: take the 1.33 on BF`s electoral college -48.5 handicap market. It wins even in Arizona goes to Trump. (Assuming you agree that Biden has Georgia and Pennsylvania and Nevada.)
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
BETTING POST: take the 1.33 on BF`s electoral college -48.5 handicap market. It wins even in Arizona goes to Trump. (Assuming you agree that Biden has Georgia and Pennsylvania and Nevada.)
BETTING POST: take the 1.33 on BF`s electoral college -48.5 handicap market. It wins even in Arizona goes to Trump. (Assuming you agree that Biden has Georgia and Pennsylvania and Nevada.)
Superb tip. Thank you.
I`ve piled in this morning already but there is plenty left.
I think I may have mentioned before that I spent almost 6 weeks in a secure psychiatric facility in the mid noughties during the depths of my PTSD experience. That tweet exemplifies the communications style of the people I met in there.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
I think I may have mentioned before that I spent almost 6 weeks in a secure psychiatric facility in the mid noughties during the depths of my PTSD experience. That tweet exemplifies the communications style of the people I met in there.
I was going to say, and yet it's not much different in cadences and structure to several of his tweets of the last few years. That would point to what his niece says - he's still running through the traumas he suffered at the hands of his father as a child.
I woke up this morning thinking that overnight we must have seen crossover in PA at least and possibly a call. But no we’re still on this slow march to Biden inevitability. Groundhog Day.
Dem fantasy scenario now is that snow drifts vote Dem and they squaek Alaska and a GOP at civil war allows them to take both run off seats
And then Congress votes to honour the Puerto Rico referendum. Following which, the DC statehood bill from last session gets revived by the House and this time passes the Senate...
What we need to do is say that the White House needs to be fumigated and send him down to Mar Lago. On the journey they need to take his phone and substitute it for another with a fake Twitter client. Trump can then ‘win’ the election and live out his second term in a virtual quarantine bubble. Whilst in the real world we get on with things.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
The betting markets are an abysmal predictor and always have been! That's why I bet on politics!!!
I think I may have mentioned before that I spent almost 6 weeks in a secure psychiatric facility in the mid noughties during the depths of my PTSD experience. That tweet exemplifies the communications style of the people I met in there.
That must have been terrible. I'm so sorry.
The most cogent armchair psychiatric analysis of Trump I even read is that is is a "maladaptive narcissist"
He really thinks that because he's appointed a conservative majority on the Supreme Court they will return the favour by overturning the result of the presidential election, doesn't he?
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
That would have been some sight , Trump going all woke and namby pamby!
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
I never bet, which is why I rarely post, but I frequently lurk. I come here for the analysis and information (and the banter & puns). It's like being in a pub with a lot of (usually) interesting conversations going on around you. And when I want to check whether anything is happening in the world, this is the first place I look. It's a great site and I'm really glad I found it (over 10 years ago now). Many thanks to Mike and all who keep the site running.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
BETTING POST: take the 1.33 on BF`s electoral college -48.5 handicap market. It wins even in Arizona goes to Trump. (Assuming you agree that Biden has Georgia and Pennsylvania and Nevada.)
Superb tip. Thank you.
I`ve piled in this morning already but there is plenty left.
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
I think they've been quite restrained actually
I think they're openly biased against people trying to say that votes shouldn't be counted, or that people in a humvee should be trying to break into counting centres.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
I was very confident that Trump would lose well before the virus hit. But on reflection I was wrong. I think he would have won but for Covid.
The clincher in this election was not so much people changing minds, it was much more to do with turnout. And the provisions which permitted postal voting en masse is what did for him in the end.
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
Yes, he exceeded Hilary Clinton's vote total some time ago. Its been a genuinely remarkable election. Its just a pity the US is so completely incompetent at resolving it.
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
The 'disaster' in Florida contained the signs of why Biden was going to win the Presidency. He lost the battle and won the war. John King called it right on CNN: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too. It's also why at the darkest hour I bought Biden at 262 EVS.
In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.
Before I went to bed last night (yes I actually managed to sleep) I was thinking it was else to ignore the cries of go all in for Texas. All that would have done is repeat 2016 mistakes.
I think this election has shown the democrats need to learn how to wisely spend money though, the senate races were not great. Still 2 runoffs in Georgia could go the Dems way.
Wasn’t Mook responsible for the Senate races? He’s learnt nothing from 2016 it seems
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
To be fair, anyone should be openly biased against Trump at this point.
Impartiality is important, but so that there is a level playing field for giving an airing to opposing points of view grounded in evidence. Trump’s performance at the conference last night were the ravings of a madman. He is no longer on this planet and is doing tremendous damage to American democracy as a result. In my view, it is wholly appropriate and indeed incumbent on news media to call this out for what it is - the anti-democratic ramblings of a lunatic wannabe dictator.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
I was very confident that Trump would lose well before the virus hit. But on reflection I was wrong. I think he would have won but for Covid.
The clincher in this election was not so much people changing minds, it was much more to do with turnout. And the provisions which permitted postal voting en masse is what did for him in the end.
He probably would have won, but for that first debate performance.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
I never bet, which is why I rarely post, but I frequently lurk. I come here for the analysis and information (and the banter & puns). It's like being in a pub with a lot of (usually) interesting conversations going on around you. And when I want to check whether anything is happening in the world, this is the first place I look. It's a great site and I'm really glad I found it (over 10 years ago now). Many thanks to Mike and all who keep the site running.
And good morning, everybody.
Surely the value of the site, in betting terms, is the difference between the market prices and what is actually likely (or even possible) to happen. As pointed out here....
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
Corbyn approves this message.
Corbyn never came close to that. John Major still holds that record, Corbyn is nowhere near it.
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
I think they've been quite restrained actually
I think they're openly biased against people trying to say that votes shouldn't be counted, or that people in a humvee should be trying to break into counting centres.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
I was very confident that Trump would lose well before the virus hit. But on reflection I was wrong. I think he would have won but for Covid.
The clincher in this election was not so much people changing minds, it was much more to do with turnout. And the provisions which permitted postal voting en masse is what did for him in the end.
And sadly the lesson the GOP will draw is that they need to double down on voter suppression next time round
The 'disaster' in Florida contained the signs of why Biden was going to win the Presidency. He lost the battle and won the war. John King called it right on CNN: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too. It's also why at the darkest hour I bought Biden at 262 EVS.
In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.
Before I went to bed last night (yes I actually managed to sleep) I was thinking it was else to ignore the cries of go all in for Texas. All that would have done is repeat 2016 mistakes.
I think this election has shown the democrats need to learn how to wisely spend money though, the senate races were not great. Still 2 runoffs in Georgia could go the Dems way.
Wasn’t Mook responsible for the Senate races? He’s learnt nothing from 2016 it seems
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
Well, actually the betting markets on election Eve were giving Trump a better chance than the polls suggested, at near 2/1.
Except FL, the election eve favourite has won every State declared so far too, I think.
The 'disaster' in Florida contained the signs of why Biden was going to win the Presidency. He lost the battle and won the war. John King called it right on CNN: 'to win the Presidency you have to win the suburbs.' In Florida, despite haemorrhaging latino votes, Biden was +5% over Clinton in the suburbs. If repeated it meant other states would come into play. It's why the Democrats are gaining in the Midwest, Georgia too. It's also why at the darkest hour I bought Biden at 262 EVS.
In retrospect, the Democrat decision to focus on the Midwest instead of Florida and Texas looks like a blinder.
Before I went to bed last night (yes I actually managed to sleep) I was thinking it was else to ignore the cries of go all in for Texas. All that would have done is repeat 2016 mistakes.
I think this election has shown the democrats need to learn how to wisely spend money though, the senate races were not great. Still 2 runoffs in Georgia could go the Dems way.
Wasn’t Mook responsible for the Senate races? He’s learnt nothing from 2016 it seems
The Dems really seem to struggle in the Senate in presidential years.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
I never bet, which is why I rarely post, but I frequently lurk. I come here for the analysis and information (and the banter & puns). It's like being in a pub with a lot of (usually) interesting conversations going on around you. And when I want to check whether anything is happening in the world, this is the first place I look. It's a great site and I'm really glad I found it (over 10 years ago now). Many thanks to Mike and all who keep the site running.
And good morning, everybody.
Surely the value of the site, in betting terms, is the difference between the market prices and what is actually likely (or even possible) to happen. As pointed out here....
Strong reasoned tips on this site do frequently move the betting markets (perhaps not the US pres outright due to sheer weight of money but most smaller markets ) - Therefore anyone giving them needs to get on before. I find the best use of this site is not necessarily up front tips (as the value may go by their very publication ) but analysis and information that you can use to draw your own conclusions certain markets are wrong.
Betfair still seems to be giving Trump an implied probability not much under 10%. I wonder what that's based on.
Not everyone runs the rollong numbers like the kind of political nerd on this site. You wake up and the raw figures say he's ahead in GA and PA and you thnk "wow, that's a bargain". You need to look at the rolling averages and votes remaining to see that the odds are overwhelmingly with Biden in both states at the moment.
Indeed, to bet on politics you need a cool analytical approach where you don't let you hatred or love of a candidate overwhelm you. Bet with the head not the heart is what I always say. Don't let your emotions or personal preference get I the way.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Which is why I don't bet on politics. I started reading, and eventually commenting, on this site after I read a couple of articles pumpiing the accuracy of betting markets as predictors of political events, as was the vogue up until about 5 years ago. Now that's been debunked, not sure why I'm still here TBH.
I never bet, which is why I rarely post, but I frequently lurk. I come here for the analysis and information (and the banter & puns). It's like being in a pub with a lot of (usually) interesting conversations going on around you. And when I want to check whether anything is happening in the world, this is the first place I look. It's a great site and I'm really glad I found it (over 10 years ago now). Many thanks to Mike and all who keep the site running.
And good morning, everybody.
Surely the value of the site, in betting terms, is the difference between the market prices and what is actually likely (or even possible) to happen. As pointed out here....
Imagine if there been someone saying to pile on Penn when it was @3.85
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
I think they've been quite restrained actually
I think they're openly biased against people trying to say that votes shouldn't be counted, or that people in a humvee should be trying to break into counting centres.
So the message I'm getting is Trump shouldn't have taken his support in the rust belt for granted and should have crafted a policy vision more in tune with their concerns and economic anxiety?
He would have won if he had appealed more to libs in the cities.
I was very confident that Trump would lose well before the virus hit. But on reflection I was wrong. I think he would have won but for Covid.
The clincher in this election was not so much people changing minds, it was much more to do with turnout. And the provisions which permitted postal voting en masse is what did for him in the end.
And sadly the lesson the GOP will draw is that they need to double down on voter suppression next time round
Suppression doesn't work long-term, it means that the pressure is there for the dam to break (as it has this year) when it vents and finds a way out. I think with turnout so high this time its going to be even harder to suppress votes next time. Once people get in the habit of voting its harder to stop them doing so again, its easier to keep people disinterested who never bothered in the past.
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
I think he takes it. There are a few thousand votes left (not sure how many) and the gap is in the triple figures now. I suspect he’ll do it by 1000 or so, maybe even more.
Hannity looking for a "do over" on the basis observers have been kept out of the Pennsylvania election count.
But they weren't. Did he not see the court case?
He's in meltdown. It fills the time while the ink on the new votes dries.
Denial is not just a river in Egypt....
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
In fairness, even in defeat, Trump is going to win more votes than any Republican in history. His vote is significantly up on 2016. He succeeded in motivating and turning out his base. It's just that he motivated his opponents even more.
I'm guessing Trump 2020 has won more votes than any other candidate in history, except for Biden 2020?
The projections on Wednesday p.m. were that Trump is in third place all time with Biden 2020 AND Obama 2008 having more votes. I don't know if that is still accurate though.
I`ve enjoyed watching the CNN coverage but they are openly biased against Trump.
To be fair, anyone should be openly biased against Trump at this point.
Impartiality is important, but so that there is a level playing field for giving an airing to opposing points of view grounded in evidence. Trump’s performance at the conference last night were the ravings of a madman. He is no longer on this planet and is doing tremendous damage to American democracy as a result. In my view, it is wholly appropriate and indeed incumbent on news media to call this out for what it is - the anti-democratic ramblings of a lunatic wannabe dictator.
Yes, to put it another way, let's imagine the vote situation had been reversed and Biden had shown up and said exactly the same thing Trump had said. If the media had seen that and reported "In tight race, Biden raises concerns about election process" then that would be bias. But they wouldn't have, they'd have reported "Ailing, Defeated Biden has completely lost his mind".
Comments
Have a good morning.
And for sure don't turn up at 5 in the morning while the count is ongoing to hurl our insults only never to be seen again.
Cosmic...
And in the interest of balance, I lost several fixed odds bets as plenty on here will know
Buried inside Biden's Florida 'disaster' was the sign of why he would win the Presidency.
It arguably swayed *Latino* voters, Trump ran hard on it with them and it's easy to see why that would be a big deal for you if you've come from central America, but overall, not so much, and BLM-related issues may have helped Biden with black turnout as well.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324613181466173440
https://twitter.com/ImSuperCap/status/1324618736922370049?s=20
(possible) knowns, unknown unknowns.
There’s likely to again be weeks of uncertainty, and we can’t yet rule out faithless electors at the Electoral College if it’s very close.
Following which, the DC statehood bill from last session gets revived by the House and this time passes the Senate...
The most cogent armchair psychiatric analysis of Trump I even read is that is is a "maladaptive narcissist"
What Donald Fucking Trump is doing is creating a story where he is the winner. But was robbed.
It only needs to be true between his ears. Enough idiots will believe it and he can survive* by bathing in their adulation.
*Not collapse in a heap and get taken away
And good morning, everybody.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRapaport
The clincher in this election was not so much people changing minds, it was much more to do with turnout. And the provisions which permitted postal voting en masse is what did for him in the end.
Biden is going to win this by a decisive margin in the electoral college, several states and a c. 5% popular vote (not that the latter counts).
This won't drag on at all. Except in Trump's brain.
Impartiality is important, but so that there is a level playing field for giving an airing to opposing points of view grounded in evidence. Trump’s performance at the conference last night were the ravings of a madman. He is no longer on this planet and is doing tremendous damage to American democracy as a result. In my view, it is wholly appropriate and indeed incumbent on news media to call this out for what it is - the anti-democratic ramblings of a lunatic wannabe dictator.
Where are we? Has Biden managed it it GA. Looks like he will be short on first glance.
Except FL, the election eve favourite has won every State declared so far too, I think.