I believe if Mr Biden does win, it will be the start of a new decade of leftist resurgence - and that will be good for us all.
It depends what lessons the left draws from Biden winning.
Biden like Obama could fit in the Lib Dems or Tories over here. Biden like Obama has fought his campaign reaching across the aisle. Biden has sought and won endorsements from Republicans and had Republicans speak on his behalf at his Conference. There is a reason most Tories want Biden too win.
If the left here view that as a reason to assume the left is in ascendency and they should keep spitting at Tories that might not be the best lesson to draw.
Miami Dade and Broward counties have already passed their 2016 percentage turnout but there are more voters now so that looks good for the Dems .
I’m dubious of sources but suggestions lower turnout than expected for the GOP in Pennsylvania, in the se of the state which is more Dem leaning turnout is up.
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
I hope and think so. Not sure why FL has gone to 1.63 Trump. I'd lay that now if I hadn't finished my betting.
Looking at the Sumpter figures, if we add say another 5000 on the day voters onto the total to make about 95k in total, 6000 or so have already voted in person but we are well over half way through now, but lest assume more show up in the last 4-5 hours. That gives a total of 95000. In 2016 Trump got 69% (just under) so to match that % he would need around 65K votes. At the moment he has 53K plus any D to R switchers and some NPAs (there are about 15K in total) less any R to D switchers. To me it looks like hes heading for slightly less than his 69% last time, but not low enough to show Biden's taking lots of older voters in a way that means Trump loses FL. Looks like a close un.
... COLUMBIA, Pennsylvania—Two years ago, software analyst Heather Zink was voting at her local polling place and saw that no one was on the ballot to be her ward’s election judge. She felt bad, so she wrote in her own name. A few weeks later she got a registered letter in the mail. She’d won by a single write-in vote—her own. Oh, my gosh, she thought, what do I do now?...
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
I hope and think so. Not sure why FL has gone to 1.63 Trump. I'd lay that now if I hadn't finished my betting.
Has there been any polling on how the NPAs in Florida were voting? Is it mostly even or favouring Biden? I guess varies county to county but wondered if there was a trend.
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
There's also the big changes in voter registration since 2016 to account for...
If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?
Almost certainly. 99%.
I'd say way less than 99% - look at the movement at the midterms. TX is moving Left, and FL isn't really moving at all.
That being said, TX is a 30% chance for the Dems now. If they lose FL, it probably is only a 10% shot.
(It also depends on *why* the Dems lose Florida. If they score big in the suburbs but lose due to oldies and Cuban Americans, then they still stand a good shout in Texas.)
I wonder if, in another couple of elections, Texas and Florida will swap statuses. One will be a swing state, the other will be a red state, it’s just the identity of which is which will have flipped.
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
There's also the big changes in voter registration since 2016 to account for...
When I looked at registration data it seemed to be a lagging indicator.
If registration data was the be all and end all, Biden would be winning West Virginia too.
OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made
Bit of a dull opening though.
Giuoco piano ?
Maybe not that dull...
Steering vaguely back to the topic, I could see Biden playing a Giuoco Pianissimo. Steady, soporific, afraid to make errors.
Trump would just throw the board over. With a complaint that the dark squares were the wrong colour.
So Biden winning by a landslide again.
Lol, yes. Although Bobby Fischer effectively did that and still won.
I've witnessed a few board throwing incidents in chess tournaments. Some people really don't like losing.
The best bust-up I ever witnessed occurred long ago in a league match between Cardiff Police and Cardiff Arabs. [Yes that was really their name - mostly students from the Middle East at the two Universities in Cardiff in those days. It probably wouldn't be permissible now.]
The Police weren't exactly cheats but 'roguish' describes their reputation well. The CA lads were fine, but perhaps a little excitable. The trouble arose on one of the lower boards where the copper had somehow contrived to lose his king's rook, but the king was still on its original spot and the bishop and knight squares were vacant. Needless to say he was getting well pasted when he decided to improve his posiiton in a novel way. He castled - by taking his king, correctly, in his right hand and moving it onto the knight square whilst simultaneously and rather deftly taking the queen's rook from its place on the adjacent board on the next table and dropping it on the bishop's square by the king.
Incredibly his opponent failed to notice this. Worse, several moves were played on both boards before the CA player to the right of the copper noticed his queen's rook was missing and started looking around for it. As it happened, the design of the sets on the two tables was slightly different which gave the game away and...well to call it uproar would be putting it mildly.
It was the only chess match I ever attended which was abandoned due to fighting.
Classic! I've never seen an actual fight break out but Working Men's Clubs in Yorkshire are obviously too genteel...
If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?
Almost certainly. 99%.
I'd say way less than 99% - look at the movement at the midterms. TX is moving Left, and FL isn't really moving at all.
That being said, TX is a 30% chance for the Dems now. If they lose FL, it probably is only a 10% shot.
(It also depends on *why* the Dems lose Florida. If they score big in the suburbs but lose due to oldies and Cuban Americans, then they still stand a good shout in Texas.)
I wonder if, in another couple of elections, Texas and Florida will swap statuses. One will be a swing state, the other will be a red state, it’s just the identity of which is which will have flipped.
Fundamentally Florida is shifting toward being a red state. Of that I am certain.
What's going on in Polk County, FL? Trump won it by 40k votes in 2016 but is only 4k ahead by party affiliation. Overall votes way down and very few votes so far today (6,800 only).
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
I hope and think so. Not sure why FL has gone to 1.63 Trump. I'd lay that now if I hadn't finished my betting.
Has there been any polling on how the NPAs in Florida were voting? Is it mostly even or favouring Biden? I guess varies county to county but wondered if there was a trend.
The last Monmouth poll had Biden winning them by 14%
Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida
On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see
so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated
But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
My Biden bet on Fla is based on many of the seniors voting for him will still be registered as Republicans and this year the independents are going to break comfortably for Biden. Trump would need there to be a significant lead in registered Republicans voting to overcome the other 2. So fat I'm not seeing it
If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?
Almost certainly. 99%.
I'd say way less than 99% - look at the movement at the midterms. TX is moving Left, and FL isn't really moving at all.
That being said, TX is a 30% chance for the Dems now. If they lose FL, it probably is only a 10% shot.
(It also depends on *why* the Dems lose Florida. If they score big in the suburbs but lose due to oldies and Cuban Americans, then they still stand a good shout in Texas.)
I wonder if, in another couple of elections, Texas and Florida will swap statuses. One will be a swing state, the other will be a red state, it’s just the identity of which is which will have flipped.
Fundamentally Florida is shifting toward being a red state. Of that I am certain.
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
I hope and think so. Not sure why FL has gone to 1.63 Trump. I'd lay that now if I hadn't finished my betting.
Has there been any polling on how the NPAs in Florida were voting? Is it mostly even or favouring Biden? I guess varies county to county but wondered if there was a trend.
The last Monmouth poll had Biden winning them by 14%
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
The results are quite different. The probabilities given for a Biden win of TX are:
538: 38% with no assumption for FL, 6% if Trump wins FL, 53% if Biden wins FL Economist: 28% with no assumption for FL, 14% if Trump wins FL, 32% if Biden wins FL
So a much lower correlation in the Economist model.
This is a very important question in thinking about a fair price for a spread bet, given the fact that these two states between them have 67 ECVs.
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
There's also the big changes in voter registration since 2016 to account for...
When I looked at registration data it seemed to be a lagging indicator.
If registration data was the be all and end all, Biden would be winning West Virginia too.
In FL there have been massive changes in the electoral roll since 2016 - lots of voter purging, lots of re-registrations in the other party both ways (and some of purged voters), and lots of new registrations.
I am interpreting this to mean in FL that there will be no significant net gain to either party from cross-voting.
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
First on the day turnout data was the Democrats losing in Broward ! Fair to say it's improved since then. I mean ye they're going backward all day but Biden's lead heading into election day is pretty big going off the polling.
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
The markets would want a Trump win surely
I doubt it. A Trump win could lead to more instability.
I believe if Mr Biden does win, it will be the start of a new decade of leftist resurgence - and that will be good for us all.
It depends what lessons the left draws from Biden winning.
Biden like Obama could fit in the Lib Dems or Tories over here. Biden like Obama has fought his campaign reaching across the aisle. Biden has sought and won endorsements from Republicans and had Republicans speak on his behalf at his Conference. There is a reason most Tories want Biden too win.
If the left here view that as a reason to assume the left is in ascendency and they should keep spitting at Tories that might not be the best lesson to draw.
Biden is a traditional consensus politician of the type that has rather gone out of fashion here.
He also knows his rallies AREN'T "unique in the history of the world". We (well: my dad) saw them in 20s Rome and 30s Nuremburg. And we still see them in 21st century North Korea.
They're why - even if you agree with him that China's beastly and the Democrats are far too tolerant of pseudo-liberal mob violence - getting rid of him will improve life for all of us.
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
I believe if Mr Biden does win, it will be the start of a new decade of leftist resurgence - and that will be good for us all.
It depends what lessons the left draws from Biden winning.
Biden like Obama could fit in the Lib Dems or Tories over here. Biden like Obama has fought his campaign reaching across the aisle. Biden has sought and won endorsements from Republicans and had Republicans speak on his behalf at his Conference. There is a reason most Tories want Biden too win.
If the left here view that as a reason to assume the left is in ascendency and they should keep spitting at Tories that might not be the best lesson to draw.
Biden is a traditional consensus politician of the type that has rather gone out of fashion here.
Biden could have fit in well with the Coalition years here.
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
The markets would want a Trump win surely
Markets like stability. Trump?
Not stability, predictability. An inconclusive result would be way worse than a clear win, regardless of winner, at least in the short term
So my final purgative through the pomposity of polling in the last hours of the 2020 US election campaigns and whether it's the Presidential election or the election for the dog catcher in Podunk, everyone will probably be glad this nonsense has finally concluded.
A final pigmentation of polls yesterday, some of which I reviewed and some which came in late.
I'll start with the national polls and today's final IBD/TIPP has Biden ahead 50-46 which is Trump's highest share in this rolling poll I believe.
Other national polls (apart from Rasmussen) have a 7-10 point Biden lead. The final Economist/YouGov has Biden ahead 53-43 and to be honest this hasn't changed much in the past 6 weeks.
Compared with 2016, an 11-point Trump lead has become a 1-point Biden lead so a 6% swing among men while among women Biden has turned Clinton's 13-point lead to an 18-point lead so a 2.5% swing. One thought is men who couldn't vote for a female candidate can vote for Joe Biden. The irony would be if misogynistic voters handed Biden a victory.
The last equivalent poll in 2016 had Clinton ahead 49-45 so understating Trump by a point and overstating Clinton by a point.
A 7-8 point national poll lead looks reasonable so about the margin by which George HW Bush beat Michael Dukakis in 1988 and that ended 426-112 in ECV so a real Stompslide.
Thats interesting as he got 69% there in 2016 and concensus seems to be he needs 66/67+ if he drops down low 60s hes in trouble in FL i think means the older voters may have deserted him a bit,. though that number you gave wont include the NPAs so he may well get a good chunk of them in that county
Indeed, he's not low 60s as there is a big chunk of independents in that total. If you split the indies/others 50/50 then the registered Republicans + 50% of the indies/other makes 67.9%. In 2016 Trump got 70.0% of the combined Trump + Clinton vote excluding independents. So if the indies split 50/50 and actual voting matches registrations, that's a marginal decline so far for Trump in Sumter, no more than that.
The actual split of indies in final opinion polls for Florida as a whole favours Biden. Quinnipiac (who had Biden winning the Florida by 5% overall), had Biden winning indies by 50/34, DFP had Biden 52/43 ahead and Insider Advantage had Biden 47/40 ahead. On the other hand, in a strongly Republican county, the split amongst indies may not be quite so much in Biden's favour as it is in the whole state.
First on the day turnout data was the Democrats losing in Broward ! Fair to say it's improved since then. I mean ye they're going backward all day but Biden's lead heading into election day is pretty big going off the polling.
??? Dems are outpolling GOP by 5700 on the day in Broward, not including the presumed edge they have in NPA in that county, so their lead in absolute votes is edging up. I expect to exceed the 285k edge they had in 2016. What are you seeing that I am not?
Biden is better for the markets in my opinion. Boring, moderate middle of the road policies.
Him personally yes, the policy platform by America standards is really quite left wing. Big increases in minimum wage, higher taxes, ending oil industry...lots of policies lifted straight from Bernie.
In Pinellas, registered Republicans are now 2,500 ahead, compared to 2,500 behind at close of play in 2016. That lead will grow, but will it be offset by Republicans and independents supporting Biden?
@Sean_F where are you getting that 2016 figure from? The county website had registered Republicans up by 10,000
If Trump hangs on in FL, does that mean Biden definitely won't flip TX?
Almost certainly. 99%.
I'd say way less than 99% - look at the movement at the midterms. TX is moving Left, and FL isn't really moving at all.
That being said, TX is a 30% chance for the Dems now. If they lose FL, it probably is only a 10% shot.
(It also depends on *why* the Dems lose Florida. If they score big in the suburbs but lose due to oldies and Cuban Americans, then they still stand a good shout in Texas.)
I wonder if, in another couple of elections, Texas and Florida will swap statuses. One will be a swing state, the other will be a red state, it’s just the identity of which is which will have flipped.
Fundamentally Florida is shifting toward being a red state. Of that I am certain.
Yep.
I think you're ignoring a big Joe Biden factor among the oldies. Which may be temporary during this pandemic.
The GOP advantage in Sumter is ever so slightly dwindling. I mean, it's dwindling at a snail's pace, but I'm still rather surprised it is moving in that direction.
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
The markets would want a Trump win surely
Markets like stability. Trump?
Well, 21% CIT vs 28% would seem a pretty important factor
First on the day turnout data was the Democrats losing in Broward ! Fair to say it's improved since then. I mean ye they're going backward all day but Biden's lead heading into election day is pretty big going off the polling.
??? Dems are outpolling GOP by 5700 on the day in Broward, not including the presumed edge they have in NPA in that county, so their lead in absolute votes is edging up. I expect to exceed the 285k edge they had in 2016. What are you seeing that I am not?
He's talking about their opening position at 0700 EST I think?
Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida
On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see
so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated
But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
My Biden bet on Fla is based on many of the seniors voting for him will still be registered as Republicans and this year the independents are going to break comfortably for Biden. Trump would need there to be a significant lead in registered Republicans voting to overcome the other 2. So fat I'm not seeing it
I'm astonished at how many people are simply ignoring the Florida polls, which point to a decisive win for Biden. Not a landslide there but a win nonetheless.
We shall see, but I don't believe the polls to be wrong.
First on the day turnout data was the Democrats losing in Broward ! Fair to say it's improved since then. I mean ye they're going backward all day but Biden's lead heading into election day is pretty big going off the polling.
??? Dems are outpolling GOP by 5700 on the day in Broward, not including the presumed edge they have in NPA in that county, so their lead in absolute votes is edging up. I expect to exceed the 285k edge they had in 2016. What are you seeing that I am not?
I'm talking about the 7 - 8 am data. Trump voters had got up early to vote for their man. Opposite to the mail in ballots where the initial returns were very very heavily democrat than the GOP caught up later.
Some quite old data but a 15-point Trump lead would be a 7.5% swing to Biden so well in line with the 7% swings from Kansas and Oklahoma. A similar swing in Montana would make the state a marginal for 2024.
Elsewhere, time to firm up on some of my marginal states. Florida remains very confusing but on balance I think Biden will take it. I also think he'll hold Nevada but Georgia and Texas will stay Red as will Iowa.
I'm putting North Carolina in the Blue side and as my risk of the evening, I'm giving Ohio to the Democrats so that's far from convincing.
With all that, my final total is 353-185 for Biden.
I'm really worried I've overcooked Biden a little but if he wins by 8% nationally he's going to carry all the previous marginals and head into the next level of Red states. Ohio was won by eight last time so it would be a big ask for Biden to carry it but that's the gamble part of this.
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
The markets would want a Trump win surely
No, if the Democrats win the Presidency and the Senate, the stimulus Bill will be swept through and that will cheer the markets considerably. The rise in stocks is in expectation of a Biden win and a Democratic sweep.
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
I wouldn't say 'really good'. It's looking a bit better than earlier, but essentially we really don't know, we have to rely on the opinion polls to guess the proportions of registered voters (and indies) switching. And that basically means that we don't have much to go on other than the opinion polls.
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
I wouldn't say 'really good'. It's looking a bit better than earlier, but essentially we really don't know, we have to rely on the opinion polls to guess the proportions of registered voters (and indies) switching. And that basically means that we don't have much to go on other than the opinion polls.
I did ask earlier, are there any polls or figures on how NPA voters in FL were planning to vote? Was it 50/50ish or leaning more Biden ?
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
Some of the tiny pop counties bordering GA seem to be flipping to Biden. Don't know if that is a harbinger of anything, but is all boils down to how the NPA vote splits.
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
Some of the tiny pop counties bordering GA seem to be flipping to Biden. Don't know if that is a harbinger of anything, but is all boils down to how the NPA vote splits.
I agree, looking at a lot of the counties, there is a potential big difference in the result say between a 50/50 split and a 65/35 split either way
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
I wouldn't say 'really good'. It's looking a bit better than earlier, but essentially we really don't know, we have to rely on the opinion polls to guess the proportions of registered voters (and indies) switching. And that basically means that we don't have much to go on other than the opinion polls.
I did ask earlier, are there any polls or figures on how NPA voters in FL were planning to vote? Was it 50/50ish or leaning more Biden ?
Leaning fairly strongly towards Biden, for example this poll has them 58% Biden, 40% Trump:
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature. Anyway the vaccine would be solid!
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
I've always thought that FL would be a nice short route for Biden but never really felt he would flip it. Its a strange state and to me it always felt Trump would hold it. I'm much more confident in Biden winning AZ or PA than FL so my focus is more there. But ofc IF Biden does sneak home in the sunshine state I'll be very happy as it means no nervous hours, days or even weeks ahead
The markets are going to be very jittery tonight about anything vaguely positive for Trump.
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
The markets would want a Trump win surely
No, if the Democrats win the Presidency and the Senate, the stimulus Bill will be swept through and that will cheer the markets considerably. The rise in stocks is in expectation of a Biden win and a Democratic sweep.
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
I wouldn't say 'really good'. It's looking a bit better than earlier, but essentially we really don't know, we have to rely on the opinion polls to guess the proportions of registered voters (and indies) switching. And that basically means that we don't have much to go on other than the opinion polls.
I did ask earlier, are there any polls or figures on how NPA voters in FL were planning to vote? Was it 50/50ish or leaning more Biden ?
Yes, and I've posted the answer twice already, now three times. Biden +14% with NPA according to Monmouth's polls on 29 October
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.
A special portable box has bern developed for this.
I'm away from a computer so can't do the data munging but based on the incomplete florida data it seems like it looks really good for Biden? Turnout is not off the charts and post work Dem vote still to come?
I wouldn't say 'really good'. It's looking a bit better than earlier, but essentially we really don't know, we have to rely on the opinion polls to guess the proportions of registered voters (and indies) switching. And that basically means that we don't have much to go on other than the opinion polls.
I did ask earlier, are there any polls or figures on how NPA voters in FL were planning to vote? Was it 50/50ish or leaning more Biden ?
Yes, and I've posted the answer twice already, now three times. Biden +14% with NPA according to Monmouth's polls on 29 October
My apologies I missed your previous posts Tim, sorry, Thanks for the info
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature. Anyway the vaccine would be solid!
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.
I may have mentioned this before but a friend of mine is chief pharmacist for one of the health trusts. He has already spoken of the fact that the information he is being given is that the vaccine will be in two or three jabs, with the jabs needing to be prepared in a medium at the point of delivery and being kept at -70 (he actually said -80) degrees. He was very dubious about the ability of our current health care infrastructure to deliver a viable mass vaccination campaign under those circumstances.
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare [...] First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature. Anyway the vaccine would be solid!
Most diagnostic and research labs have -25 and -85 freezers.
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.
Dry Ice is roughly -78C. With a suitable container it should be doable.
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.
Dry Ice is roughly -78C. With a suitable container it should be doable.
Special box that enables 2 days usage has already been developed using exactly this approach.
O/T but of interest. The vaccine announcement will happen very soon. GP surgeries are being told to prepare including details of how to store the vaccine at minus 70. Over 85s and front line staff will be first. First injections first week of December. Source Nursing in practice publication Pulse.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
Minus 70! You sure about that? I’m out of touch now, but I think it highly unlikely that any surgery has the kit to reach that sort of temperature.
I may have mentioned this before but a friend of mine is chief pharmacist for one of the health trusts. He has already spoken of the fact that the information he is being given is that the vaccine will be in two or three jabs, with the jabs needing to be prepared in a medium at the point of delivery and being kept at -70 (he actually said -80) degrees. He was very dubious about the ability of our current health care infrastructure to deliver a viable mass vaccination campaign under those circumstances.
On this point, is this not where the 7 'Mass Vaccination Centres' come in? I thought the idea was to vaccinate at those rather than GP surgeries?
Comments
However, I don't agree that it is the Govt's responsibility to make the data public.
It is entirely the scientist's responsibility to provide all the material for reproducibility of their results, including the data and the models.
He writes bestsellers. Good for him.
Biden like Obama could fit in the Lib Dems or Tories over here. Biden like Obama has fought his campaign reaching across the aisle. Biden has sought and won endorsements from Republicans and had Republicans speak on his behalf at his Conference. There is a reason most Tories want Biden too win.
If the left here view that as a reason to assume the left is in ascendency and they should keep spitting at Tories that might not be the best lesson to draw.
Writing a decent book and maintaining a character real time are different skills.
I’m dubious of sources but suggestions lower turnout than expected for the GOP in Pennsylvania, in the se of the state which is more Dem leaning turnout is up.
To me it looks like hes heading for slightly less than his 69% last time, but not low enough to show Biden's taking lots of older voters in a way that means Trump loses FL. Looks like a close un.
... COLUMBIA, Pennsylvania—Two years ago, software analyst Heather Zink was voting at her local polling place and saw that no one was on the ballot to be her ward’s election judge. She felt bad, so she wrote in her own name. A few weeks later she got a registered letter in the mail. She’d won by a single write-in vote—her own. Oh, my gosh, she thought, what do I do now?...
Can't say I'm surprised. But I'm still not reading too much off registration numbers in Florida right now.
If registration data was the be all and end all, Biden would be winning West Virginia too.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_102920.pdf/
That's why I'll be following the data on here closely and what the markets do with a little less interest.
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1323710854462906371?s=20
Biden 1.49 / 1.5
Trump 2.98 / 3
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170367709
You can explore this sort of conditional probability question in both the 538 and Economist models:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
https://www.ricardofernholz.com/election/
The results are quite different. The probabilities given for a Biden win of TX are:
538: 38% with no assumption for FL, 6% if Trump wins FL, 53% if Biden wins FL
Economist: 28% with no assumption for FL, 14% if Trump wins FL, 32% if Biden wins FL
So a much lower correlation in the Economist model.
This is a very important question in thinking about a fair price for a spread bet, given the fact that these two states between them have 67 ECVs.
I am interpreting this to mean in FL that there will be no significant net gain to either party from cross-voting.
Fair to say it's improved since then. I mean ye they're going backward all day but Biden's lead heading into election day is pretty big going off the polling.
20,018 new cases.
Trump?
So my final purgative through the pomposity of polling in the last hours of the 2020 US election campaigns and whether it's the Presidential election or the election for the dog catcher in Podunk, everyone will probably be glad this nonsense has finally concluded.
A final pigmentation of polls yesterday, some of which I reviewed and some which came in late.
I'll start with the national polls and today's final IBD/TIPP has Biden ahead 50-46 which is Trump's highest share in this rolling poll I believe.
Other national polls (apart from Rasmussen) have a 7-10 point Biden lead. The final Economist/YouGov has Biden ahead 53-43 and to be honest this hasn't changed much in the past 6 weeks.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf
Compared with 2016, an 11-point Trump lead has become a 1-point Biden lead so a 6% swing among men while among women Biden has turned Clinton's 13-point lead to an 18-point lead so a 2.5% swing. One thought is men who couldn't vote for a female candidate can vote for Joe Biden. The irony would be if misogynistic voters handed Biden a victory.
The last equivalent poll in 2016 had Clinton ahead 49-45 so understating Trump by a point and overstating Clinton by a point.
A 7-8 point national poll lead looks reasonable so about the margin by which George HW Bush beat Michael Dukakis in 1988 and that ended 426-112 in ECV so a real Stompslide.
The actual split of indies in final opinion polls for Florida as a whole favours Biden. Quinnipiac (who had Biden winning the Florida by 5% overall), had Biden winning indies by 50/34, DFP had Biden 52/43 ahead and Insider Advantage had Biden 47/40 ahead. On the other hand, in a strongly Republican county, the split amongst indies may not be quite so much in Biden's favour as it is in the whole state.
??? Dems are outpolling GOP by 5700 on the day in Broward, not including the presumed edge they have in NPA in that county, so their lead in absolute votes is edging up. I expect to exceed the 285k edge they had in 2016. What are you seeing that I am not?
https://www.votepinellas.com/Portals/Pinellas/Documents/files/Voter History/2016/General/District Voter Turnout Analysis for 2016 General Election Nov082016.pdf
I want a Trump win anyway
We shall see, but I don't believe the polls to be wrong.
Opposite to the mail in ballots where the initial returns were very very heavily democrat than the GOP caught up later.
I'll start with an easy one - a rare poll from South Dakota which Trump won by 30 in 2016:
https://www.southdacola.com/blog/2020/11/survey-nielson-brothers-polling-nbp-statewide-survey-october-24-28-2020/
Some quite old data but a 15-point Trump lead would be a 7.5% swing to Biden so well in line with the 7% swings from Kansas and Oklahoma. A similar swing in Montana would make the state a marginal for 2024.
Elsewhere, time to firm up on some of my marginal states. Florida remains very confusing but on balance I think Biden will take it. I also think he'll hold Nevada but Georgia and Texas will stay Red as will Iowa.
I'm putting North Carolina in the Blue side and as my risk of the evening, I'm giving Ohio to the Democrats so that's far from convincing.
With all that, my final total is 353-185 for Biden.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/AzZ6m
I'm really worried I've overcooked Biden a little but if he wins by 8% nationally he's going to carry all the previous marginals and head into the next level of Red states. Ohio was won by eight last time so it would be a big ask for Biden to carry it but that's the gamble part of this.
Great fun though
Highly anecdotal of course.
I always found the lockdown announcement very odd, but I can see the reason now. They did not want the country to go mad when the vaccine announcement is made ie go to the pub and get pissed so they have shut them.
397 Covid-19 related deaths recorded in the UK today, the figure for France was 854.
Increasing lead in Broward and Election Day deficit in Palm Beach isn't getting any larger.
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_Pinellas_November2_I6EUB.pdf
However, as I said, we shouldn't fool ourselves by applying figures from opinion polls in an attempt to verify the opinion polls.
https://twitter.com/jeanmackenzie/status/1323644911716126720?s=19
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323534663453913093?s=19
https://youtu.be/6FzQ_s-BjlM
Anyway the vaccine would be solid!
https://youtu.be/byW1GExQB84
(edit)
https://www.pharmaceuticalcommerce.com/clinical-operations/covid-19-vaccines-chilled-frozen-or-cryogenic/
https://www.nursinginpractice.com/clinical/vaccinations-and-infections/nhs-and-bma-in-talks-over-50-50-december-vaccine/
https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/10/07/britain-prepares-to-roll-out-a-covid-19-vaccine