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UK punters getting nervous about Biden’s prospects and the money is going on Trump – politicalbettin

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    rcs1000 said:

    I still have this lingering notion that anybody who is riled up by Trump enough to vote for Joe Biden has already cast their vote.

    Everyone voting today is going out and voting for Trump

    Democrat-leaners are sat in their favourite chair today, looking at their beer and saying to themselves

    "Joe Biden? Joe-fucking-Biden.....?"

    Remember this, when the results start coming in tonight.

    I think that's right.

    *BUT*

    There simply don't seem to be that many on the day votes in Florida, North Carolina, etc.
    I was struggling more with the idea of MM getting into the psyche of Democrat-leaners.
  • It's probably a waste of time doing anything on here until midnight UK time.

    Speculating is more likely to lead to uninformed overtrading which is unlikely to improve your positions.

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!
    Knock it off, Hudson.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    OK. Ready to go.

    Calling this for Trump. He will edge the swing states and take a couple of surprising Dem states. He'll win the popular vote, as well.

    Take THAT and smoke it in your poncey meerschaum pipes of psephological wankpiffle

    Given your (collective) predictive record, that is actually rather reassuring.

  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    MikeL said:

    50% of the way through Election Day Voting:

    Broward: Election Day vote = 8% of total vote

    Palm Beach: 13%

    Pinellas: 12%

    So still no sign of a high election day vote in FL - though of course FL had a very high early vote (95% of 2016 total vote)

    What about the more Trumpy counties? or is that kind of level consistent across all FL?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,700
    edited November 2020
    Manatee County FL

    2016 results (https://enr.electionsfl.org/MAN/1652/Summary/ ):

    Trump:101,944
    Clinton: 71,224

    2020 vote so far by registered party (https://www.votemanatee.com/Election-Information/Election-Voter-Turnout-View ):

    Republican: 93,567
    Democrat: 62,213
    Other: 44,671
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    EPG said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think the two campaigns' focus on Pennsylvania tells us they each believe it is close, in a way that's not true of Wisconsin or Michigan.
    My wife described PA to me thus - "Pittsburgh on the left. Philadelphia on the right. A marginally less liberal and colder version of Alabama in the middle".
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    rcs1000 said:

    I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.

    Plenty of evidence in recent weeks that teh Trump campaign has reached the same conclusion - cancelling ads in Wisconsin, not many rallies in MI. They have essentially gone all in on PA which makes sense
    Given that, and that Biden is not really defending any states, he only needs to pick up one more to win. there's a lot of options for him but trump needs to do well in all of his defences though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    Trump winning the popular vote has moved out from about 7 yesterday to almost 10 today. Punters are obviously losing confidence in any chance of it happening.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170211116
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It's probably a waste of time doing anything on here until midnight UK time.

    Speculating is more likely to lead to uninformed overtrading which is unlikely to improve your positions.

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!
    Knock it off, Hudson.
    Hicks, sir. He's Hudson. I'm Hicks.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    edited November 2020
    Cuyahoga (Cleveland) - live voter turnout page (% of RV)

    Early 40%

    Today so far 17%

    Total so far 57%

    https://boe.cuyahogacounty.gov/en-US/livevoter.aspx
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Bit of a dull opening though. :)
    Giuoco piano ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594

    rcs1000 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
    Plenty of evidence in recent weeks that teh Trump campaign has reached the same conclusion - cancelling ads in Wisconsin, not many rallies in MI. They have essentially gone all in on PA which makes sense
    On the other hand Trump's rally last night was in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
  • kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    MikeL said:

    50% of the way through Election Day Voting:

    Broward: Election Day vote = 8% of total vote

    Palm Beach: 13%

    Pinellas: 12%

    So still no sign of a high election day vote in FL - though of course FL had a very high early vote (95% of 2016 total vote)

    Personally I think FL is looking like a Biden Toss Up win unless court intervenes
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think the two campaigns' focus on Pennsylvania tells us they each believe it is close, in a way that's not true of Wisconsin or Michigan.
    My wife described PA to me thus - "Pittsburgh on the left. Philadelphia on the right. A marginally less liberal and colder version of Alabama in the middle".
    I have only ever been to Philadelphia which is very typical east-coast inner-city, and the well-off mainly-white suburbs which were full of people on both sides of the political divide, plenty of high-earning Rush L fans. Of course even white suburbs in America tend to be ethnically and racially diverse compared to most of Europe.
  • kinabalu said:

    Biden 306 Trump 232.

    That's the EXACT mirror of 2016 if you adjust for faithless electors. And a touch too conservative for me. I want the landslide. I feel the landslide. I deduce the landslide. I've bet the landslide. Heart & Soul & Brain & Wallet aligned. That's rare.
    I would love you to be right, and you may well be. Trump needs to be crushed by the voters and his enablers in the Republican party too. But there are still plenty of Americans who love him. So I'm not sure we are in landslide territory.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,875
    edited November 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    It's probably a waste of time doing anything on here until midnight UK time.

    Speculating is more likely to lead to uninformed overtrading which is unlikely to improve your positions.

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!
    Knock it off, Hudson.
    Hicks, sir. He's Hudson. I'm Hicks.
    Actually, it's "Hudson, sir! He's Hicks!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy1OhtQQRik
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    EPG said:

    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think the two campaigns' focus on Pennsylvania tells us they each believe it is close, in a way that's not true of Wisconsin or Michigan.
    My wife described PA to me thus - "Pittsburgh on the left. Philadelphia on the right. A marginally less liberal and colder version of Alabama in the middle".
    I have only ever been to Philadelphia which is very typical east-coast inner-city, and the well-off mainly-white suburbs which were full of people on both sides of the political divide, plenty of high-earning Rush L fans. Of course even white suburbs in America tend to be ethnically and racially diverse compared to most of Europe.
    Central PA I don't know well - however I once went to a wedding in Ithaca, NY from NYC and one of the peculiarities of US geography means that the fastest route is actually through Pennsylvania. The feeling was closer to the south of the US than leafy New England where my wife is from. My wife's best friend teaches as Lycoming College and says much the same thing,
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    It's probably a waste of time doing anything on here until midnight UK time.

    Speculating is more likely to lead to uninformed overtrading which is unlikely to improve your positions.

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!
    Knock it off, Hudson.
    Hicks, sir. He's Hudson. I'm Hicks.
    Actually, it's "Hudson, sir! He's Hicks!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy1OhtQQRik
    I was riffing on a theme. Fck me, you can accuse me of many things, but not of an imperfect knowledge of that movie.
  • kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Is it a crowded genre?
    Chess magazine once (early 90s) had a "top 10 chessboard seduction scenes in cinema" feature. I believe The Thomas Crown Affair was #1.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    GOP now LT 50% of OTD votes for first time today 49.59%

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

    49.29% now

    2.14/1 reg GOP/DEM

    Tue undecided decide it!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    Problem is, it’s been little more than a very expensive and slightly delayed running commentary on the pandemic, rather than a means to enable its control.
  • Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    My view is its not so much the quantity as the quality. No amount of testing is any good unless you do anything meaningful with the data. And the data hasn't, it seems, been put to very good use.
  • Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    Problem is, it’s been little more than a very expensive and slightly delayed running commentary on the pandemic, rather than a means to enable its control.
    Yes. Too much emphasis on the absolute number of tests, too little on (a) getting the results really fast, and (b) following up the contact-tracing (and virtually no backwards contact-tracing). The net result has been a huge expenditure for little benefit.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    There are skews like this in some UK constituencies, the issue, of course, being that 1 of those constituencies isn't 10% of the UK.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    The UK testing stats have been a bit dodgy ever since the infamous 100,000 target. But it seems like a lot of testing is happening now.
    Germany is doing something over 200,000k tests a day - so not much more than earlier on in the year. Last week the positive rate shot up to 5.8%, first time it's been above 5 I believe, maybe a sign that not enough tests are happening now. Should get new figures from RKI tomorrow.
    Still people who need a test seem to get one fairly promptly and results usually within 24 hours, at least locally.
  • Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    Except that's deliberate not a flaw. Wyoming deliberately gets more by design not by accident.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    I've been itching for a great new series for a while so thank you for that Gambit tip folks. Just loading it up now.

    Fab.

    The only downside is that it just 7 episodes, you want it go on and on.

    And now it's been a big hit and Netflix are under pressure to produce a second series, yet it is a self contained story.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    This BBC forgeries, Diana interview stuff demands resignations and prosecutions and should be the end of the licence fee, but is passing virtually unnoticed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129
    LadyG said:

    I've been itching for a great new series for a while so thank you for that Gambit tip folks. Just loading it up now.

    Fab.

    The only downside is that it just 7 episodes, you want it go on and on.

    And now it's been a big hit and Netflix are under pressure to produce a second series, yet it is a self contained story.
    A bit like Chernobyl then.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    This BBC forgeries, Diana interview stuff demands resignations and prosecutions and should be the end of the licence fee, but is passing virtually unnoticed.

    Does anyone care?
  • I am pleased to see most of the markets moving towards Biden. I understand Florida which has been commented on. But I see Trump is still favourite on North Carolina. I think Biden wins this and am thinking of increasing my bet here. Why not?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    And two senators each.
    I suspect the founding fathers themselves, undemocratic slave owners that many of them were, would be a little surprised by today’s disparities.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,481
    I have had a covid idea that will appeal to the puritanical amongst you. Anyone found by the police to be in serious/repeated breach of the Covid regulations, is denied the right to free Covid care on the NHS and will be charged by credit card for their care should they require Covid hospitalisation. A simple per day charge. I think it would be very popular. 'NHS should be free at the point of use, not free at the point of abuse'.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    Except that's deliberate not a flaw. Wyoming deliberately gets more by design not by accident.
    It doesn't make it better if it's deliberately crap
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Evening all
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    GOP now LT 50% of OTD votes for first time today 49.59%

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

    49.29% now

    2.14/1 reg GOP/DEM

    Tue undecided decide it!!!
    Those numbers are starting to trend back to a Blue edge win maybe?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited November 2020

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    Problem is, it’s been little more than a very expensive and slightly delayed running commentary on the pandemic, rather than a means to enable its control.
    Yes. Too much emphasis on the absolute number of tests, too little on (a) getting the results really fast, and (b) following up the contact-tracing (and virtually no backwards contact-tracing). The net result has been a huge expenditure for little benefit.
    The indications from reports of the Liverpool experiment is that we’ll again fail to make best use of the (potentially far more useful) results.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited November 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Bit of a dull opening though. :)
    Giuoco piano ?
    Maybe not that dull...


    Steering vaguely back to the topic, I could see Biden playing a Giuoco Pianissimo. Steady, soporific, afraid to make errors.

    Trump would just throw the board over. With a complaint that the dark squares were the wrong colour.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    DougSeal said:

    EPG said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think the two campaigns' focus on Pennsylvania tells us they each believe it is close, in a way that's not true of Wisconsin or Michigan.
    My wife described PA to me thus - "Pittsburgh on the left. Philadelphia on the right. A marginally less liberal and colder version of Alabama in the middle".
    I have only ever been to Philadelphia which is very typical east-coast inner-city, and the well-off mainly-white suburbs which were full of people on both sides of the political divide, plenty of high-earning Rush L fans. Of course even white suburbs in America tend to be ethnically and racially diverse compared to most of Europe.
    Central PA I don't know well - however I once went to a wedding in Ithaca, NY from NYC and one of the peculiarities of US geography means that the fastest route is actually through Pennsylvania. The feeling was closer to the south of the US than leafy New England where my wife is from. My wife's best friend teaches as Lycoming College and says much the same thing,
    There's an old joke that Pennsylvania consists of Philly and Pittsburgh and Kentucky in-between. (Or "Pennsyltucky" as it's sometimes called.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,129

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    Except that's deliberate not a flaw. Wyoming deliberately gets more by design not by accident.
    In fairness to Sunil, he said it was a load of crap, not that it was a flaw it how it was designed. They designed other things which were a load of crap, even if on the whole the system has stood the test of time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Nigelb said:

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    And two senators each.
    I suspect the founding fathers themselves, undemocratic slave owners that many of them were, would be a little surprised by today’s disparities.
    Why?

    Remember, as far as they were concerned the United States was not a country. It was an organisation of 13 equal countries to co-ordinate matters of mutual interest.

    They would therefore not have been surprised at disparities in size. That was the whole point of the Senate.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    I am pleased to see most of the markets moving towards Biden. I understand Florida which has been commented on. But I see Trump is still favourite on North Carolina. I think Biden wins this and am thinking of increasing my bet here. Why not?

    NC is now as close as you can get to even money, Trump fractionally shorter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    This BBC forgeries, Diana interview stuff demands resignations and prosecutions and should be the end of the licence fee, but is passing virtually unnoticed.

    Does anyone care?
    Well, no, that was rather my point. If you are trying to say that you personally are not fussed about honourable and honest conduct in public life, I think we knew that.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Where did the last 4 years go?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    https://deadline.com/2019/09/chernobyl-wins-big-emmys-craig-mazin-no-season-2-1202742011/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    stodge said:

    Needless to say, there is a far more important race being run overnight and that's a kick off of 4am (UK) at Flemington - the Melbourne Cup.

    I've backed TWILIGHT PAYMENT at 33/1 each way but I think SURPRISE BABY will keep the race at home this year.

    The second part may be wrong but consolation is a £5 each way bet at 33s on the winner which will provide Mrs Stodge with a decent steak and lobster supper to console us in lockdown.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited November 2020
    .
    IshmaelZ said:

    This BBC forgeries, Diana interview stuff demands resignations and prosecutions and should be the end of the licence fee, but is passing virtually unnoticed.

    Mr Bashir, now the BBC's religion editor, is seriously ill with Covid-related complications and is not in a position to respond to the earl's allegations, the BBC has said.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8910341/BBC-probe-Earl-Spencers-claim-journalist-Martin-Bashir-Princess-Dianas-Panorama-interview.html

    ETA Earl Spencer and Boris are the same age so presumably were at Eton together.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    ping said:

    Where did the last 4 years go?

    Brexit...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    ping said:

    Where did the last 4 years go?

    Down a fecking rabbit hole.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Bit of a dull opening though. :)
    Giuoco piano ?
    Maybe not that dull...


    Steering vaguely back to the topic, I could see Biden playing a Giuoco Pianissimo. Steady, soporific, afraid to make errors.

    Trump would just throw the board over. With a complaint that the dark squares were the wrong colour.

    So Biden winning by a landslide again.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited November 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
  • Nigelb said:

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    And two senators each.
    I suspect the founding fathers themselves, undemocratic slave owners that many of them were, would be a little surprised by today’s disparities.
    I doubt it. The Founding Fathers took the difference between states very, very seriously.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    There was a second nuclear accident?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    ping said:

    Where did the last 4 years go?

    Yes, all been pretty uneventful, really, eh?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Florida out beyond 2.5 on Betfair Exchange.
    First time I’ve been tempted to have a dabble.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    rcs1000 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
    Yep. Michigan in particular seems like a dream for him now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    And two senators each.
    I suspect the founding fathers themselves, undemocratic slave owners that many of them were, would be a little surprised by today’s disparities.
    The founding fathers were distraught at what the electoral college turned into. Madison proposed a constitutional ammendment to fix the system that developed in most states.

    The intent was unplegdged delegates that were sent to deliberate and decide not a pre-pledged delegate.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    kinabalu said:

    Biden 306 Trump 232.

    That's the EXACT mirror of 2016 if you adjust for faithless electors. And a touch too conservative for me. I want the landslide. I feel the landslide. I deduce the landslide. I've bet the landslide. Heart & Soul & Brain & Wallet aligned. That's rare.
    Landslides are indeed fun.

    Another bad year for Red Walls?
    :smile: - It's a theme. Red means dead.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2020

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I’m stone cold sober and staying that way.

    Don’t drink and gamble, kids!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
    It’s true that those who were there with you do seem to have disappeared. From PB, at least.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Nigelb said:

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    And two senators each.
    I suspect the founding fathers themselves, undemocratic slave owners that many of them were, would be a little surprised by today’s disparities.
    I doubt it. The Founding Fathers took the difference between states very, very seriously.
    No, quite a few were pragmatists.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I've started on the Perrier Jouet and soon I am off to eat oysters at Randall & Aubin, in Soho.

    If we must depart this world, let us do it with style
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    There was a second nuclear accident?
    Successfully hushed up.
  • Well I hope Mr Biden wins but I am not making any firm predictions.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    LadyG said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I've started on the Perrier Jouet and soon I am off to eat oysters at Randall & Aubin, in Soho.

    If we must depart this world, let us do it with style
    I am a huge fan of their Belle Epoque. One of my all-time favourites along with Dom Perignon.

    Enjoy!

    (Cue the infantile comments that you and I are one and the same which ignores the equally compelling argument that writers are of a certain genre.)
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    ping said:

    Where did the last 4 years go?

    Yes, all been pretty uneventful, really, eh?
    Indeed.

    One thing to be said for trump is that he hasn’t got us into any stupid wars, despite John Bolton.
  • Mal557 said:

    Biden 306 Trump 232.

    Did you just reverse the 2016 result? :) J/k aside thats not far off where I am, though bit more breathing space for Joe in yours
    I have 306-232, too. Biden flips MI,WI,PA,AZ,GA and Omaha.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated
  • I am pleased to see most of the markets moving towards Biden. I understand Florida which has been commented on. But I see Trump is still favourite on North Carolina. I think Biden wins this and am thinking of increasing my bet here. Why not?

    NC is now as close as you can get to even money, Trump fractionally shorter.
    Yes but WHY?
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    And two senators each.
    I suspect the founding fathers themselves, undemocratic slave owners that many of them were, would be a little surprised by today’s disparities.
    I doubt it. The Founding Fathers took the difference between states very, very seriously.
    No, quite a few were pragmatists.
    Well indeed but accepting the difference between the states was part of that pragmatism.

    The 2 Senators per State and the inclusion of Senators in the Electoral College numbers was a deliberate bias to ensure that small states interests wasn't neglected in favour of large states interests.

    Many small states still have the same concern today.
  • I believe if Mr Biden does win, it will be the start of a new decade of leftist resurgence - and that will be good for us all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ping said:

    ping said:

    Where did the last 4 years go?

    Yes, all been pretty uneventful, really, eh?
    Indeed.

    One thing to be said for trump is that he hasn’t got us into any stupid wars, despite John Bolton.
    Just the civil war to come, then? ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Mal557 said:

    Biden 306 Trump 232.

    Did you just reverse the 2016 result? :) J/k aside thats not far off where I am, though bit more breathing space for Joe in yours
    I have 306-232, too. Biden flips MI,WI,PA,AZ,GA and Omaha.
    GA but not NC?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    There was a second nuclear accident?
    Successfully hushed up.
    Actually, Chenobyl was the second. The first was Chelyabinsk.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
    It’s true that those who were there with you do seem to have disappeared. From PB, at least.
    As soon as this medieval plague shit is over I am going somewhere gloriously sunny and wildly hedonistic.

    I can't decide between New Orleans, Bangkok or maybe somewhere in the Indian Ocean
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    ping said:

    Where did the last 4 years go?

    Felt like 40.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ping said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I’m stone cold sober and staying that way.

    Don’t drink and gamble, kids!
    That was the sensible path. Sadly the thought of even the possibility of Trump being re-elected seems to have led most of us less resolute souls astray already.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited November 2020
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    There was a second nuclear accident?
    Successfully hushed up.
    There was a first one that was successfully hushed up for 17 years:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster

    And there are constant rumours of one in the 1960s that was much more successfully hushed up.
  • I believe if Mr Biden does win, it will be the start of a new decade of leftist resurgence - and that will be good for us all.

    On a lot of things Joe Biden is to the right of David Cameron.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    Florida out beyond 2.5 on Betfair Exchange.
    First time I’ve been tempted to have a dabble.

    That's a good bet imo. I'm not doing any more betting myself. It's all a Watch for me now.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kyf_100 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    There was a second nuclear accident?
    I thought Chernobyl was a good series until a Ukrainian friend of mine told me, in the first episode alone, he counted seven inaccuracies on one hand.
    Hahahahahahh

    Superb
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    kle4 said:



    One area where, even with caveats about it, the public are less forgiving.
    I find it hard to reconcile this belief with the actual numbers given on sites like Worldmeter.

    According to their numbers the UK has done more tests than any other country in the world except the big 4 - China, USA, India and Russia. A total of 34.4 million tests to date.

    When it comes to tests per million people, with the exception of the smallest countries - those of les than 1 million population - only Denmark, Israel, the UAE and Singapore have done more tests per head of population then the UK.

    Thing is, I agree with the perception that the UK has handled testing badly. That is my impression as well. But the numbers do not, on face value, support that claim.
    Number of tests is a fairly irrelevant after a large number is reached after that it becomes about who you test rather than how many. Our testing system is basically a scattershot which waits for people to get symptoms or the worried well who irrationally fear they have caught it every time they step out of their house.

    It oddly doesn't prioritise people who have been contacted by a track and trace team and instead asks contacts to isolate rather than get tested, we prioritise the worried well over people who have a higher likelihood of having the virus because they've been in contact with people who have tested positive.

    In addition as I've said about a thousand times before, we do nothing after people have tested positive, we don't help them isolate, we don't check that they isolate and we don't ensure that they still have jobs after their isolation period.

    Testing is only one variable, isolation, tracing and testing contacts rapidly all need to be done effectively for any system to have an effect on the R. Whether we do 300k or 500k tests is irrelevant. What those 25k people who get positive tests everyday do afterwards is much more important that increasing capacity.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just over a year ago the dog and I dropped into Wilmington Animal Hospital to get his pet passport signed off before we embarked on the ship back to the UK. Just along the road from there, Biden will be making his victory speech in the small hours tomorrow, US time.

    Almost exactly one year ago - November 6, 2019 - I was tucking into freshly-shucked Gulf oysters in the Bourbon House oyster bar, in the French Quarter, in the warm, sultry autumn sunshine of New Orleans, with barely a care in the world.

    What the F. What has happened. What has happened to us all.
    It’s true that those who were there with you do seem to have disappeared. From PB, at least.
    As soon as this medieval plague shit is over I am going somewhere gloriously sunny and wildly hedonistic.

    I can't decide between New Orleans, Bangkok or maybe somewhere in the Indian Ocean
    I've already decided that I'm giving it until March and then, fuck it, I'm going to travel whatever.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    OT. If anyone hasn't seen the 7 part series on Netflix called Queens Gambit they're missing a treat. Best chess film ever made

    Bit of a dull opening though. :)
    Giuoco piano ?
    Maybe not that dull...


    Steering vaguely back to the topic, I could see Biden playing a Giuoco Pianissimo. Steady, soporific, afraid to make errors.

    Trump would just throw the board over. With a complaint that the dark squares were the wrong colour.

    So Biden winning by a landslide again.
    Lol, yes. Although Bobby Fischer effectively did that and still won.

    I've witnessed a few board throwing incidents in chess tournaments. Some people really don't like losing.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Unless prompted by a direct question about those two states that should set an alarm bell going, FL everyone knows is a toss up so wouldn't be a stretch to have said 'win without FL' but PA? I try not to read into 'expectation' comments from campaign staff but,, I find it very strange she specified PA as well
    Yes, that was my reading of it. Somewhat troubling.
    https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323668834440675330
    This is the specifi quote that relates to PA

    Charlotte Alter
    @CharlotteAlter
    Jen O'Malley Dillon: Pennsylvania and Florida "are requirements for DT to get to 270, they are not requirements for Joe Biden to get to 270, because we have so many pathways"
    4:40 pm · 3 Nov 2020·Twitter Web App
    I don't think she's quite right. If Trump can hang on to one of the Great Lakes states then he could possibly do it without Pennsylvania, but on the other hand if he's winning there, he's probably winning in Pennsylvania too so it's unlikely.
    I think Michigan and Wisconsin are gone for Trump - the Biden leads there are just too big.
    Yep. Michigan in particular seems like a dream for him now.
    It took him four days to spread COVID in Saginaw...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    kle4 said:

    Can I just say the Electoral Kindergarten is a load of crap?

    Consider:

    Wyoming, with barely 600,000 people, has THREE Electoral Votes, or 1 EV per 200,000 approx.

    Whereas California, with 40,000,000 people (roughly) has 55 EVs, or 1 EV per 700,000 approx.

    Of course, not all of the population is of voting age of course, but you get my drift!

    Except that's deliberate not a flaw. Wyoming deliberately gets more by design not by accident.
    In fairness to Sunil, he said it was a load of crap, not that it was a flaw it how it was designed. They designed other things which were a load of crap, even if on the whole the system has stood the test of time.
    Indeed, many things are deliberate and crap.
  • I believe if Mr Biden does win, it will be the start of a new decade of leftist resurgence - and that will be good for us all.

    On a lot of things Joe Biden is to the right of David Cameron.
    I would very much support David as PM over Johnson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    kyf_100 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does anyone know when the second series of Chernobyl is out?

    There was a second nuclear accident?
    I thought Chernobyl was a good series until a Ukrainian friend of mine told me, in the first episode alone, he counted seven inaccuracies on one hand.
    Very good :smile:

    Seriously, it was about as historically accurate as the Tudors, but it was very good. Jared Harris was brilliant.
  • Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Democrats led by 115,416 ballots when the polls opened in Florida

    On those states reporting live in FL its narrowed by over half as far as I can see

    so it will come down to the large numbers of unaffiliated

    But how many Republicans are voting for Biden?
    I suspect that it's more than Dems voting for Trump
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    I’ve had half a bottle of wine and am about to have a disco nap ✌️

    I've started on the Perrier Jouet and soon I am off to eat oysters at Randall & Aubin, in Soho.

    If we must depart this world, let us do it with style
    I am a huge fan of their Belle Epoque. One of my all-time favourites along with Dom Perignon.

    Enjoy!

    (Cue the infantile comments that you and I are one and the same which ignores the equally compelling argument that writers are of a certain genre.)
    I've never seen the appeal of Cristal. And I've had bottles worth many hundreds. Supposedly.

    Dom is nice. I like Churchill's Pol Roger.

    I am also a big fan of the best English fizz. Nyetimber et al.

This discussion has been closed.